Actual expert, ‘Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist’, endorses the NYTimes‘ hopeful editorial:
How to Save Summer 2020 https://t.co/cLCJLYKcYb
— Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) April 26, 2020
Test case, from overseas:
VIDEO: In Italy's Porto Cesareo, a small seaside town nicknamed "the Caribbean" of Puglia, a private beach is trying out a set-up respecting social distancing rules with chairs and umbrellas placed 1.5 metres apart and ropes to mark out the spaces for future holidaymakers pic.twitter.com/Kf4xf4GjuP
— AFP news agency (@AFP) April 27, 2020
be nice if we had any political leader whatsoever who could recognize & act on this fact by investing in the commons in this moment while also telling us why we cannot enjoy them just yet.
— Mariya WASH YOUR HANDS Strauss (@mariyastrauss) April 26, 2020
Welcome update/added context from @WHO https://t.co/0AzmNE6zJ1
— Stephen Goldstein (@stgoldst) April 26, 2020
Follow @Reuters liveblog for the latest developments around the coronavirus outbreak https://t.co/cEBwkoEQ5P pic.twitter.com/fjCVDO7xMj
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 27, 2020
AFP timeline of illness onset, SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection, hospitalization, oxygen requirement and reported symptom resolution among the first 12 patients with COVID-19 in the US, January to February pic.twitter.com/QwZNTR52Yy
— AFP news agency (@AFP) April 27, 2020
Less happy, but probably significant, thread:
NEW: a lot of data on reported Covid deaths is highly suspect, so we’ve been looking into excess mortality — how many more people than usual have been dying around the world in recent weeks?
Story by me, @ChrisGiles_ & @valentinaromei (free to read): https://t.co/EiE5Q3OSmR pic.twitter.com/AiTdBnBma9
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 26, 2020
The numbers are remarkable, and put to bed the idea that Covid-19 is akin to a bad flu season.
You can clearly see that in almost every country, spikes in mortality are *far* higher than what we see from flu etc (grey lines are historical death numbers) https://t.co/EiE5Q3OSmR pic.twitter.com/h4WIDqkBTD
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 26, 2020
So far we’ve analysed data from 14 countries, finding 122,000 more deaths in recent weeks than the usual average for those same places and same weeks.
This is an increase of 52%. Crucially, that’s also 45,000 more deaths than accounted for in reported Covid deaths. pic.twitter.com/vBNYhCU0qg
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 26, 2020
In the coming weeks, we’ll be joining @J_CD_T, @atmccann and co at @TheEconomist & @nytimes in the quest to get a handle on the true human cost of coronavirus.
We’ll be updating our excess mortality numbers for our current set of 14 countries, and expanding that list.
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 26, 2020
On April 8th, IHME model revised its predicted dead downward to 60,400 by August. White House began spinning success using that model revision. It was wrong. Very wrong. On track to reach that number before the end of April. https://t.co/YjwTGUPNu2
— Ken Gude (@KenGude) April 27, 2020
Thread – Notes from a respected Australian virologist:
A spotty go 'round of #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 graphs from https://t.co/LMFFPsePkS
The comments below are not based on first-hand knowledge of the story behind each jurisdictions testing, test capacity, recording methods or strategy pic.twitter.com/IrRS2twDwX— ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ ?????? (@MackayIM) April 26, 2020
I like these charts as long as people keep in mind what they are, but note the shape of the tail after the "peak." UK, Italy, Spain and France have a long and fat tail after the "peak"—with no clarity yet on how long it'll take to bring it down. "Past the peak" is no comfort. pic.twitter.com/CdWb7VEgEW
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) April 25, 2020
How is it every time I come close to feeling slightly less scared of this disease, it finds some new way to freak me the hell out https://t.co/ACck4cSDqC
— Hayes Brown (@HayesBrown) April 26, 2020
— Jo6Pack2 Roused Rabbler ??? (@Jo6Pack2) April 26, 2020
"It's pretty clear the world is going to need hundreds of millions of doses, ideally by the end of this year"@soutikBBC on how India will play a major role in a #Covid_19 #vaccine https://t.co/nSgL7NvdvR
— BBC News India (@BBCIndia) April 27, 2020
All coronavirus patients discharged in Wuhan https://t.co/XRX8wB1JSx pic.twitter.com/Ltq6G0dQJW
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) April 26, 2020
No new cases in Hong Kong today, for the third day in a week. https://t.co/oFmxKqcnh2
— Mike Brrrrrd (@Birdyword) April 26, 2020
How many people wear #facemasks in #HongKong? Amazing congruence of survey and observational data from three groups @CityUHongKong @CUHKMedicine @hkumed finding > 95% rates of mask usage. High public engagement in mask use, #SocialDistancing are required to #CRUSHCOVID#Covid_19 pic.twitter.com/4FvGIl6Bcp
— Siddharth Sridhar (@sid8998) April 26, 2020
"We don't believe that the COVID situation will get better overnight. If you are going to be in a kind of long-term situation, you have to be relaxed at some times and tighter at some other times," said Prof Keiji Fukuda of @hkumed. #COVID19https://t.co/BjyWUbpIOM
— HKU Medicine (@hkumed) April 26, 2020
Hundreds of Bangladesh's garment factories defy a nationwide #coronavirus lockdown to reopen, raising fears the industry's vulnerable and largely female workforce could be exposed to the contagion https://t.co/sZLxL8A5ll pic.twitter.com/I3BydEuLfR
— AFP news agency (@AFP) April 27, 2020
Singapore confirms 799 new coronavirus cases https://t.co/an3dSpMUYT pic.twitter.com/acRaFVwAwQ
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 27, 2020
#UPDATE Spanish children were allowed outside on Sunday for the first time in six weeks as countries prepared to ease #lockdown measures and reopen economies gutted by the #coronavirus despite the worldwide death toll surpassing 200,000 https://t.co/UUfxyFyjN2 pic.twitter.com/hhBRsU2eho
— AFP news agency (@AFP) April 26, 2020
#Italy PM @GiuseppeConteIT releases details of end to lockdown. May 4: manufacturing, construction & wholesale for construction. May 18: retail stores, museums, libraries & pro sports teams. June 1: bar, restos, hairdressers & beauticians. Schools closed til Sept. @CBCAlerts pic.twitter.com/Wzd4RMIcXu
— Megan Williams (@MKWilliamsRome) April 26, 2020
Coronavirus outbreak is "a marathon and not a sprint"
Sweden’s Deputy PM Isabella Lovin tells #Marr "it is a great myth that Sweden hasn’t really taken serious steps to try and address this very, very serious pandemic"
https://t.co/bCpuLjdalW pic.twitter.com/crUZMmDQl1— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) April 26, 2020
Israel allows some shops to reopen and considers schools going back https://t.co/zJGLzxEPc3 pic.twitter.com/CG6zmw74Bv
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) April 26, 2020
Nearly two million Australians rushed to download a new smartphone app designed to make coronavirus contact tracing easier, overlooking privacy concerns in the hope of speeding up the end of social-distancing lockdownshttps://t.co/5iypynn3hn
— AFP news agency (@AFP) April 27, 2020
New Castle County poop suggests higher COVID-19 infection rate https://t.co/Kx4eAyuNDv
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) April 25, 2020
⭐A fantastic crash course in infectious disease epidemiology⭐
Modeling infectious disease dynamics by @sarahcobey @ScienceMagazine
Cc @mlipsitch @onisillos @InfectiousDz @EpiEllie @CT_Bergstrom @AdamJKucharski @eliowa #COVID19 https://t.co/5kw1h1VZVo— Antibiotic Steward? Bassam Ghanem (@ABsteward) April 25, 2020
just like HIV/AIDS ended casual sex and the Spanish flu ended parades
— Lindsay Ellis (@thelindsayellis) April 26, 2020
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s numbers today: 40 new cases, total 5,820; one death, total 99 deaths. 99 patients recovered and discharged, total 3,957; 1,764 active cases: 37 of them in ICU, of whom 17 are on respiratory aids. The case fatality rate stands at 2.44%.
At the Q&A after his daily media briefing, DG of Health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah noted that the Ministry of Health has sufficient PPE on hand, and there are no procurement issues at the moment.
Amir Khalid
Re Josh Marshall’s tweet: I think I now understand the recent run on toilet paper.
OzarkHillbilly
Blech.
Brachiator
I had a conversation with someone trying the “just a bad flu season” argument.
And some folks are trying to seize upon comments made by VP Pence that things will all blow over by Memorial Day. We won’t even need herd immunity. It’s magic.
I don’t have time for this nonsense.
David C
I go for early morning walks, weather permitting, and weekend walks on the C&O Canal or Monocacy Battlefield. And gardening – all thanks to losing 3.5 hours of commuting time. Gave away tomato plants to my daughter, two coworkers, my wife’s friend and maybe a couple of people in the neighborhood – I just have to repot. Stay healthy!
terben
The latest bulletin from the Australian Dept of Health:
‘As at 3:00pm on 27 April 2020, there have been 6,720 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 9 new cases since 3:00pm yesterday.
Of the 6,720 confirmed cases in Australia, 83 have died and 5,586 have been reported as recovered from COVID-19. More than 517,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.’
In my state, South Australia, we have had our fifth straight day of zero new cases and are down to 20 active cases. Schools reopened today for the 2nd term of the year. In SA, this means a choice of face-to-face or remote learning. Or it would have if the online system hadn’t crashed on day one. ie when people actually tried to log on. There is always tomorrow.
OzarkHillbilly
@Brachiator: Carry this in your pocket and use it to slap the shit out of the next person to raise such stupidity.
Not Like the Flu, Not Like Car Crashes, Not Like….
New Deal democrat
@Amir Khalid: One issue with using human waste to gauge COVID-19 infection: it directly attacks via the ACE2 receptors on enterocytes that line the small intestine and are involved in nutrient absorption. So the intestines might have a bigger viral load than for a typical respiratory disease.
Also, in re the massive heart attack of the first victim: it also binds to an iron ion in hemoglobin, causing sometimes massive numbers of blood clots.
YY_Sima Qian
China just reported that three Chinese nationals have died of COVID-19 in Russia in the past week or so, two traders and a doctor (an immigrant, not one of the doctors from the medical team sent by China). The Chinese Embassy in Moscow also worked with the Russia authorities to test the 300 or so Chinese traders still remaining in Moscow, and over 100 tested positive.
TS (the original)
I wouldn’t trust any government – including the Australian one (& I live in Australia) – to not use such an app for nefarious purposes. Cannot believe people are willingly doing this. No-one even knows exactly what it does and when it will be used and what data is stored etc etc.
CarolPW
@YY_Sima Qian: I had occasion to think of you several times last week. Ended up in the emergency room Tuesday with what turned out to be a massively bleeding stomach ulcer. It was actually nice to know I’m not the only person that has stupid stuff like this happen, worried about a particular risk and then having something entirely unrelated go wrong instead.
One big difference here (eastern Washington State) is we have a small case load and no elective procedures so the hospital wasn’t very busy.
Cheryl from Maryland
Again, Anne, thanks for the daily summary. I was very interested in the Financial Times article regarding excess mortality as that method was important to determine the effects of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico. I too have some acquaintances who claim this is just a “bad” flu season. Not with those percentages.
YY_Sima Qian
@CarolPW: Damn! I hope you are recovering quickly! Internal bleeding is so tricky, easily missed and dismissed until dangerous, cumbersome to treat. It was certainly a sobering experience for me.
I am very curious about the protocols and PPEs for non-COVID section of hospital in the US, how are the staff protecting themselves from potentially pre-symptomatic patients that come in for other illnesses. How are patients (like yourself) protecting themselves?
Nosocomial clusters have a tendency to explode quickly, with the traffic and the density in the hospitals, unless a great deal of attention is paid to every detail, and all medical staff thoroughly drilled. It certainly helps if the staff is not overworked, and that PPEs are readily available.
CarolPW
@YY_Sima Qian: It was actually comforting to know that someone else had gone through something similar under worse conditions than me and got through it.
All staff wore gloves and masks, generally no other protective gear. Lots of hand washing and sanitizer use. I went in with a mask on, they removed it when they admitted me, and I took no other precautions except hand washing. They seemed somewhat understaffed (lots of waiting for them to get around to change IVs or answer calls). The were probably operating with minimal staff to save money. The day after I arrived they started doing elective surgeries again so should be staffing up.
They had no problem figuring out I had internal bleeding because almost immediately after checking in I barfed up what looked like about three gallons of blood. Even a little blood looks like gallons, but they ended up giving me 3 units of whole blood and one of cells, so the loss was not trivial. Because of the blood that incident it is the one time I saw everyone fully and elaborately suited up except for a couple of people that dashed in to make sure I didn’t kick the bucket while everyone else was suiting up. Endoscopy and cauterizing the ulcer happened a couple of hours later, and I got to go home Friday (and restarted my clock for time from most recent potential exposure to the virus).
For me, the danger is that I might relax vigilance against exposure. I’ve been very careful for two months worrying about the virus and expecting bad things to happen. And then a very bad thing happened. There was a period where I felt relief as if I had managed to get through that crisis. Except what I got through was a whole different crisis. I’ve spent a couple of days working on my attitude to regain the proper level of personal concern about Covid-19 but it’s odd.
Ohio Mom
CarolPW: Yikes! Glad your story had a happy ending.
CarolPW
@YY_Sima Qian: Forgot: No one was allowed into the building except staff and patients. There were lots of questions from the paramedics during the trip to the hospital and then again in emergency about potential exposure, coughing, fevers etc. They seemed pretty relaxed about it othewise. Several patients, including the earliest patient in the area, were treated there and they managed to keep it contained so in the COVID section they must have reasonable procedures in place.
CarolPW
@Ohio Mom: Thanks. It wasn’t any fun and I’m very glad to be home.
CaseyL
@CarolPW: Very glad to hear you’re back home recovering! Also very glad to hear that, even though the Covid-19 caseload is light, the healthcare folks in Eastern WA are vigilant about taking precautions. I’ve wondered what the mood was, out there, as Eastern WA is so very different from us here west of the Cascades.
CarolPW
@CaseyL: Lots of people are not taking it very seriously. There is often poor distancing and mask use in public. I do parking lot pickup at the grocers, and at a 7 am pickup everyone going into the store wore masks. Later in the day few use masks. The only public place I’ve been inside, Rite-Aid, has poor customer distancing and mask use so I spent a lot of time dodging people.
YY_Sima Qian
@CarolPW: Yikes! Sounds like your bleeding ulcer was much more serious than mine! I am amazed that you were able to go home in just a few days (not that hospitals are a good place to be these days).
My hospital stay was extended, with the much more elaborate check in process to guard against COVID-19 infection, as well as Wuhan hospitals not doing any endoscopy except in life threatening situations. Doctors had to assess my progress via vital signs, lab results and external symptoms.
In hindsight, my experience was not all that nerve racking (despite my possible close brush with an infected doctor), as Wuhan’s epidemic was already substantially suppressed by the time of my ER visit in early Mar. It would have been a different story in early Feb., before there were designated non-COVID hospitals, or mid-Feb. when 20% of “non-COVID” patients were also infected.
Very good that your hospital was taking precautions, although I am curious why the staff took away your mask. Universal masking protects everyone. During my stay, all patients wore masks even while sleeping. I assume COVID-19 cases are fairly few in eastern WA? At a hot spot like NYC, I would think much more rigorous protocols and better PPEs would be needed even in the non-COVID wings, to prevent nosocomial transmission. Of course, PPEs are still in dire shortage for COVID-19 staff, too, and improvised equipment and methods are still far too common. It’s depressing to see that community volunteers, restaurant workers, flight attendants and building receptionists in China have better PPE than doctors and nurses on the front lines at NYC…
Just Chuck
Is that a red dot over Greenland? Everyone who’s played Plague Inc knows what that means.
CarolPW
@YY_Sima Qian: They said they took off the mask because they didn’t want me to choke if anything went wrong. And if I had been wearing it when I puked it would have been a real problem so I’m glad they did it.
400 cases in the county so far, a lot of them originating in extended care facilities. Because we are sparsely populated, the number per capita is similar to Seattle.