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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / Revealed preferences and the need for testing

Revealed preferences and the need for testing

by David Anderson|  May 2, 20204:44 pm| 31 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19

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Bipartisan agreement that we don’t have enough tests for front-line facilities, and it’s *MAY*

May!

— Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) May 2, 2020

Any thoughtful plan to re-open is predicated on massive, frequent, smartly targeted testing that can quickly identify hot spots. Once a hot spot is identified, public health authorities are expected to flood the zone with contact tracers and smother an outbreak before it spreads in a community.  All of this is predicated on enough testing to identify hot spots before people show up at hospitals.

We don’t have enough testing.  Congress should be tested frequently as its members are old and they will be in shared, indoor spaces with decent density.  Testing matters a lot here.

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Reader Interactions

31Comments

  1. 1.

    Fair Economist

    May 2, 2020 at 4:50 pm

    I understand the political reason for Congress turning refusing tests but, really, they should get them. They are front-line workers because they have so much contact with so many people, at least indirectly, and they are essential because there is a lot Congress has to do. Even with their aides there’s only about 2,500 and that is not all that many people.

  2. 2.

    trollhattan

    May 2, 2020 at 4:52 pm

    @Fair Economist:

    Not to mention, we NEED Nancy SMASH. That other guy, I say go commando and see what happens, Mitch.

  3. 3.

    Barbara

    May 2, 2020 at 4:53 pm

    @Fair Economist: They declined the rapid tests.  They may be receiving the another kind of testing.

  4. 4.

    JPL

    May 2, 2020 at 4:55 pm

    @Barbara: If they have to wait days, it’s not helpful.    They should have taken the tests.

  5. 5.

    mrmoshpotato

    May 2, 2020 at 4:55 pm

    A weekend David Anderson post?  Is an asteroid about to hit us?

  6. 6.

    debbie

    May 2, 2020 at 4:56 pm

    Silly, it’s the other olds that don’t matter.  //

  7. 7.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    May 2, 2020 at 4:57 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: No, but the ‘Murder Hornet’ is here*.

    *See Cole’s tweet in the sidebar.

  8. 8.

    mrmoshpotato

    May 2, 2020 at 5:04 pm

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: Yes.  Green_Footballs also tweeted about them.  Hooray for the coming summer!

  9. 9.

    ziggy

    May 2, 2020 at 5:05 pm

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: Blaine, Washington!?! Now there’s one more thing to worry about this summer. dang it.

  10. 10.

    Omnes Omnibus

    May 2, 2020 at 5:05 pm

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: @mrmoshpotato: Christ, one of the few things worse than clowns.

  11. 11.

    dmsilev

    May 2, 2020 at 5:06 pm

    Not to mention, Mitch McConnell is calling the Senate into session not to deal with the urgent national crisis but instead to jam through yet more right-wing hack judges.

  12. 12.

    MattF

    May 2, 2020 at 5:06 pm

    Not sure what ‘rapid test’ means… but Congress should be set up for taking everyone’s temperature and oxygen levels, daily. And the testing pipeline should be set up, and they should all have PPE. I.e., be at least as prepared as my local supermarket.

    ETA: And if some legislators say no, because it’s all a Chinese hoax, it’s on them.

  13. 13.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    May 2, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: As Cole says, “EVERYTHING IS FINE”.

  14. 14.

    Ryan

    May 2, 2020 at 5:10 pm

    No wonder Trump is gung-ho on opening.  Maybe if he had the testing we all had.

  15. 15.

    JMG

    May 2, 2020 at 5:15 pm

    That it is a bipartisan decision by two very skilled legislative leaders to literally risk death for the sake of optics says it all about American politics.

  16. 16.

    ziggy

    May 2, 2020 at 5:17 pm

    It seems to me that the testing situation should be improving a lot, as the flu and other seasonal illnesses with Covid-like symptoms are falling off quickly. Covid should stick out lick a sore thumb and we should start having more testing available, but of course I haven’t heard that to be the case at all.

  17. 17.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    May 2, 2020 at 5:20 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Exactly, a clownish looking hornet.

  18. 18.

    dmsilev

    May 2, 2020 at 5:22 pm

    Also, there’s no fundamental reason why hearings and votes and so forth couldn’t be done remotely. There’s a swath of Congress that just doesn’t want to. Issues would need to be worked out, but it’s been a few months at this point and they really should be back in business.

  19. 19.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    May 2, 2020 at 5:25 pm

    “Congress should be tested frequently “

    I think the Democrats ought to arrange their own testing and wear PPE while around Republicans. Let the Republicans do as they may and hope for the worst.

    Win-win!

  20. 20.

    O. Felix Culpa

    May 2, 2020 at 5:36 pm

    @Odie Hugh Manatee: I like the way you think.

  21. 21.

    Edmund Dantes

    May 2, 2020 at 5:44 pm

    https://twitter.com/joenbc/status/1256658801559777281?s=21

    Seems the Reade and Biden situation is heading into a bad space for her. Heat is turning up and she is scurrying away Hope she wasn’t manipulated into doing this by other people.

  22. 22.

    zhena gogolia

    May 2, 2020 at 5:53 pm

    @Edmund Dantes:

    I think your hope is in vain. The Bernie cult members have been using her.

  23. 23.

    Another Scott

    May 2, 2020 at 6:01 pm

    @ziggy:

    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/05/may-2-update-us-covid-19-test-results.html

    When I first posted this graph – in mid-March – the US was struggling to conduct much over 10,000 tests per day, while other countries – with smaller populations were testing far more than the US.

    Although very late to testing – and slow to ramp up – the US has made significant progress over the last 8 weeks. The US still needs more tests, but there are also some other key hurdles to a successful test-and-trace program.

    The US needs to ramp up preparedness on tracing. Some states are hiring people to do this work, but it is not organized at the national level.

    The US also needs to reduce the lag time between testing and reporting. I’ve heard that some people are still waiting days for test results, and that makes isolating (and tracing) more difficult.

    And my understanding is higher income areas are seeing more tests than lower income areas. This needs to be fixed.

    The US might be able to test 400,000 to 600,000 people per day sometime in May according to Dr. Fauci – and that would probably be sufficient for test and trace.

    There were 264,537 test results reported over the last 24 hours (the number of tests yesterday were revised up).

    COVID-19 Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

    This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

    The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 11.4% (red line). The US probably needs enough tests to push the percentage positive below 5%. (probably much lower based on testing in New Zealand).

    Bill McBride updates the graph every afternoon.

    HTH.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  24. 24.

    Fair Economist

    May 2, 2020 at 6:04 pm

    @zhena gogolia: Yeah, Tara’s been used cruelly. She’s been coached by a Bernie dead-ender, who has also coached her non-corroborating witness into corroborating (which is a crime if there are actual charges filed, right?)

  25. 25.

    zhena gogolia

    May 2, 2020 at 6:07 pm

    @Fair Economist:

    I have not seen a picture of her before today, but she does not look like a well person. The people who have been using her are beyond despicable.

  26. 26.

    DAVID ANDERSON

    May 2, 2020 at 6:08 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: nah, I was reviewing a paper and had to FiND a working paper tweetorial when I saw this.

  27. 27.

    low-tech cyclist

    May 2, 2020 at 6:19 pm

    PELOSI AND MCCONNELL decline COVID testing for members on Capitol Hill.

    That’s fine if the House is going to show up this week, vote themselves the authority to conduct proceedings and take votes remotely, then go home and do their jobs remotely.

    But they’re not.  They just absented themselves from the field for an additional two weeks.  Like nothing was happening that required any urgent attention on their part.

    The Democratic Party needs a good swift kick in the ass.

  28. 28.

    Omnes Omnibus

    May 2, 2020 at 6:24 pm

    @low-tech cyclist: The Democratic Party needs a good swift kick in the ass.

    Of groups that need a good swift kick in the ass over their response to the ‘Rona, I would put the Democratic Party pretty low on my list.  But you be you.

  29. 29.

    Immanentize

    May 2, 2020 at 6:54 pm

    @zhena gogolia: I had the same sad thought the first time I saw a “now” picture of her.  When she was young, she was a smokey eyed beauty, so easier to imaging a lecherous approach.  But given her history and job arc, I think she is probably one who really needs someone to help her navigate.  The whole narrative timeline of her tale supports that.  It reminds me of so many of my clients.  And it makes me sad, really.

  30. 30.

    Raven Onthill

    May 2, 2020 at 7:56 pm

    I simulated COVID-19 on the Senate. This was the result.

    (Oh, bother, blog doesn’t allow me to paste images; follow the link. There was an image here, there was, there was…)

    https://adviceunasked.blogspot.com/2020/03/plaguing-senate-things-just-got-real.html

    (But the House is not that much younger…)

  31. 31.

    Skepticat

    May 2, 2020 at 8:53 pm

    @Odie Hugh Manatee: I think the Democrats ought to arrange their own testing and wear PPE while around Republicans. Let the Republicans do as they may and hope for the worst.

    Bingo!

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