What did the massive and disruptive effort to engage in physical distancing during the last two weeks of March and all of April buy?
I think it bought a lot of health against a counterfactual of unconstrained spread.
The first thing April bought was several doublings that did not happen:
Update on #Covid19 cases, 5/3
1,160,519 cases
67,173 deathsOne month ago, 4./3
279,865 cases
7,197 deathshttps://t.co/ksy5vq86Zf pic.twitter.com/MVsHUMfWEM— Timothy McBride (@mcbridetd) May 3, 2020
Over the course of the month, cases increased by slightly more a factor of four, or two doublings. That implies an average doubling rate of 15 days. In March and early April, a doubling in case count was happening every three to five days. So physical distancing bought at least four doublings avoided. And that probably means we bought the hospitals a chance in hell of not being overwhelmed.
Case count is still growing which means the (R)eproductive rate is still above 1.
Excluding the New York tristate area, national covid19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to increase. The national doubling time has rise to about 25 days, but the epidemic continues to slowly expand. And covid spread – although slower – remains persistent. pic.twitter.com/isse2NRvpA
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) May 3, 2020
The doubling time is almost to a month. That is not good as we want doubling to cease and active case counts to shrink, but compared to mid-March, this is a vast improvement.
The next thing that April bought is time to get testing to approach the scale that is needed.
Our daily update is published. We’ve now tracked 6.6 million tests, up ~321k from yesterday, a new single-day record.
Note that we can only track tests that a state reports.
For details, see: https://t.co/PZrmH4bl5Y pic.twitter.com/tmZloeBjne
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) May 1, 2020
We’re not quite there. The lowest level of testing needed for effective public health interventions at the individual level instead of community level is 3 million or more tests per week or an average of 430,000 test per day. We’re not there yet, but it is starting to get to the point of being plausible.
Finally, the trial for an anti-viral that has no proven mortality effect but shortens hospital stays effectively creates several hundred thousand bed days out of thin air as well as trained individuals to staff those beds. April bought learning from both overwhelmed hospital systems in metro New York City as well as from systems that are not being overwhelmed. New techniques and procedures are being tested, evaluated and disseminated to clinicians who have enough time and mental energy to learn instead of fighting fires with a garden hose.
April did not buy us everything. Ideally, April would have seen R rates well under 1 for several weeks to dramatically cut back on the infectious base as states and people begin to loosen up formal and personal movement restrictions, but compared to a counterfactual where nothing happened in April, April bought us a lot.
JPL
Since I live in GA, I can assure you that May is going to be worse.
Whoops at first I identified the wrong front pager. sorry
David Anderson
Agreed — May is going to suck
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
VOR
We are going to have to be satisfied with partial victories. Treading water and staying alive is a victory.
My local paper ran an article talking about the gains from the local lockdown. Their take is similar, but lacking the nice graphs.
https://www.twincities.com/2020/05/03/coronavirus-five-weeks-of-stay-at-home-what-we-accomplished-and-what-we-didnt/
On a personal level, I figure I am better off the longer I delay getting COVID. Treatments are improving and changing as doctors learn more. We already have one drug with some effectiveness but there may be more coming.
dr. bloor
RI will be interesting to track as it initiates it’s “Toe in the Water Phase 1” later this week. The doubling time is stretching out but still only about 15 days; OTOH, the state is killing it on testing, and it’s just starting to show in the numbers.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
And some of my family in Mississippi and Tennessee (who work in Health Care FFS!) think the whole COVID-19 lock downs and closures, etc was/is overblown and are so happy they can go out for a drink a some tacos today and have their margarita in the bar…I dread what the next 3 or 4 months may bring. Meanwhile our shelter in place here is until AT LEAST 20 May because my governor is not stupid. Every time I hear someone on the news talk about “Well, these states have dodged the worst of it and can open up and life can get back to normal” I wonder if I am paranoid or they are idiots…Is it Opposite world??
Hunter Gathers
I would ask what these MBA shitheads think is going to be accomplished by all this ‘opening the economy’ bullshit, but I’m pretty sure the reason is that they want to be able to ogle the wait staff at their local Buffalo Wild Wings.
JPL
Southern state governors are going to try to hide the numbers of those with the virus.
One of the things that Andy Slavett said on CNN was that there would be an attempt to normalize the increase in deaths. He was shocked when the country became accustomed to school shootings, so there’s a chance it will work
Another thing the former Obama employee said is that you can’t have economic health without public health.
It’s so depressing that President Obama sought the most qualified for his staff and trump appoints ass kissers.
dmsilev
Be careful; the increase in testing rates accounts for some of that as well.
Brendan in NC
@JPL: Southern Republican governors, maybe. Here in NC, I’m more worried that the Republican led State Legislature will override anything our Democratic governor does; if this lasts “too long” for them.
DAVID ANDERSON
@Brendan in NC: Cooper’s vetoes can hold on party line votes
p.a.
@dr. bloor:
RI basically being a ‘city-state’ for the purposes of ‘isolate and contain’ has been a benefit. NO numbers to back this up, but my impression is far and away majority deaths in nursing home/already hospitalized population, and those serving them. Wonder how this (if accurate) will compare to other states/regions.
Archon
@JPL:
If you can normalize random mass shootings you can normalize anything.
Zzyzx
Based on yesterday’s numbers, King County, WA (where Seattle is) is currently on a 60+ day doubling rate and a 150 day death doubling rate. Obviously you can’t base it off of one day, but we’ve gone from 150-250 new cases a day to 70-110 a day, and are down from 12-15 new deaths a day to like 4-8.
I’m not sure why we’ve been having different results doing the same things as everyone else.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@JPL:
School shootings don’t kill 100,000 people in a few months. You can’t just hide something like that because the more people who do die, the odds of many people knowing someone who died increase
Ruckus
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone:
Even some states or at least areas of some states with great governors act like they are opening up some. I live in the eastern side of the San Gabriel Valley in socal and the number of cars driving around, while less than on a pre crisis day are still going up and the stores are more crowed when I do have to go. A week ago I had to go into downtown LA to the VA and the traffic is much less than normal but is still significant and higher than it has been.
Some good news, just got off the phone with my oncologist and everything looks good, my treatment ended in Nov 16, so 3+ yrs cancer free.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Archon:
Not quite. Random mass shootings, as awful as they are, are still very abstract to a lot of people because they are often personally unaffected by them. If 100,000 people nationwide die this virus, many more than a typical mass shooting will be impacted, sadly
Elizabelle
@Ruckus: Yea! Stay healthy.
Incidentally, do you think the VA could get you a pulse oximeter and thermometer? If they’re in short supply in stores, maybe that would be an easy way to monitor your health at home.
Raven
@Ruckus: Fuckin A!
MisterForkbeard
I am really curious if significant undercounting earlier in the process means our spread is lower than we thought. Basically:
If current testing is giving us a roughly accurate count but is massively more correct than the initial much lower counts performed with minimal testing, that implies the spread isn’t as bad as it looks from the raw numbers. I don’t think this actually adds up in a significant way, but it should be considered. I’m sure it has, actually.
April didn’t do as much as we wanted because of shoddy and haphazard implementation. But it was definitely useful, aside from encouraging the idiots on my nextdoor and facebook groups to say “this isn’t actually that bad and we need to re-open”
Raven
@Elizabelle: If my hearing aids are an example it would take about 6 months.
Ruckus
@Zzyzx:
Maybe your area isn’t doing exactly the same as other areas. The amount of people out and about, the social distancing, the precautions may be different in degree and even a small change can make a significant difference in outcome. Also the morons running around screaming have only been doing that for a short while, let’s wait 2 or 3 weeks and see if there are spikes.
I’ve had people at work ask me about the virus and distancing and masks because while I’ve gone back to work, I’m the only one there who wears an N95 mask the entire day. And I have to take it off to eat lunch or have a drink of water. Now that’s not as bad as it sounds, we rarely work closer than 6-8 feet and everyone is respecting my distancing. I’d still rather not go into work, it’s just one more exposure level.
Elizabelle
@Raven: I see your problem. Hmmmm.
Raven
@Elizabelle: They do have a bunch of info on tracking the readings but I haven’t seen anywhere to request one.
gratuitous
And for all the pain of isolating that some areas did, we’re going to see that effort utterly wasted as long as dimwits like Gov. DeWine of Ohio knuckle under to the know-nothings because in his estimation people don’t like the government telling them what to do. That’s a failure of leadership that will have very bad results for Ohio.
There are no shortcuts. There isn’t a secret exit. There isn’t a miracle cure that will be announced today. People are impatient because our leaders haven’t been honest with them, and the guy with the little hands sitting in the big chair spouts diametrically opposite nonsense from day to day, even hour to hour. People are acting like spoiled children because the administration is treating them like spoiled children.
joel hanes
an anti-viral
Remdesivir treatment could be provided at $1000/patient, and a drug pricing study group says that it could be profitable at $4500/patient.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/gilead-s-covid-19-therapy-remdesivir-worth-4-460-per-course-says-pricing-watchdog
dmsilev
@Ruckus: Great health news!
I haven’t noticed a major increase in number of people in the grocery stores, so maybe you and I are on somewhat different shopping schedules (I’ve been doing Saturday morning, once every two weeks). The Pasadena farmer’s market is pretty busy at 8 (long line to get in), but everything else seems calm. Trader Joe’s had a line to get in, but it was only 2 or 3 people long so hardly worth mentioning.
Ruckus
@Elizabelle:
I haven’t asked because the VA under shit for brains is on coasting mode at best. And typical of the mouth breathers in charge the only thing they’ve done is change the volume of bullshit they spread. I now get a weekly email telling me how great everything is, while nothing underneath the hood really has changed, especially for the better. And there is of course a new budget proposal from the shit house that cuts huge amounts from the VA. What’s the old saying from my time in the navy, something like “Shit in one hand, piss in the other and tell me it’s raining.”
And thanks every one, let’s hope good news stays good news.
WaterGirl
@Ruckus: I ordered a pulse oximeter from amazon, and then later when I tried to click the link it gave me a 404 error, so I found it from another vendor and ordered there.
now it appears that both are shipping (the proof will be in the pudding) but I can send you the second one if they both arrive.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
April also bought time to figure out how to treat patients; go look at the European numbers of ICU patients dying and you can see that number take a dive in April.
The Thin Black Duke
@Archon: Difference is, COVID-19 has killed more people in a shorter period of time, and it’s just getting warmed up.
Nicole
@Ruckus: That’s great news! Thanks for sharing it.
greenergood
When the numbers get so big, people (like me) tend to look at the charts and think ‘well today wasn’t too bad’ or ‘today was pretty awful’ – Mondays are usually bad due to lack of weekend reporting. The statistics are soaring, but they are abstract; I look at only one CV-19 statistics website a day now – and each day spend some time thinking, while gardening or washing the dishes or folding the laundry, etc., that all those who died the day before were mums, dads, brothers, sisters, friends, work colleagues, just the nice people you meet during the day – and NOT NUMBERS. I can’t do much – I’ve not a lot of money and live in a rural area, where I can check on my older neighbours, but my heart sinks at the thought of (not rich) people in cities – living in 24-floor-storey flats with three children – and very little resources. They and the health workers, shop workers, delivery folks, posties, etc. are the heroes – and it’s only in the past few weeks that our eyes have been opened – while others remain proudly ignorant of how society CAN work, because they’d rather see their version be dominant.
Drdavechemist
@p.a.: If you go to the R.I. DOH web site where they post the daily stats and scroll to the bottom, they actually show the case counts and fatalities at each nursing home. Even though they bracket them in ranges of five, when I added up the minimum values last week, it was close to two-thirds of the fatalities in the state.
That same site shows that around 45% of the cases but less than 15% of the fatalities are Hispanic/Latinx, while almost 80% of the fatalities are Non-Hispanic white, so I’m inferring an awful lot of younger Hispanic nursing home workers are getting infected (and maybe taking it home to their families and communities?).
Searcher
I don’t like, go places, but I have been taking the car for a spin around the block once a week or so. I imagine I am not the only one partaking in such a (hopefully harmless) indulgence.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Ruckus: That is awesome! Congratulations on your good news!
drdavechemist
@Drdavechemist:
Here’s a link to the page…
Ruckus
@Raven:
Have a primary appointment in a few weeks, I’ll ask but I’m on the same page as you, if we ran on VA time, spring would get here in about 8 months from now. They did give me a blood pressure cuff device, which seems rather accurate, when I first did my intake a number of years ago, still works fine. I learned when I was in the navy never to hold my breath for anything positive, if you didn’t learn that, you’d be dead long ago. And the VA is not a lot different in this regard. And all that said it’s still been some of the best healthcare I’ve had in my life, even when I had amazing healthcare insurance and great docs. There was still wait times for everything, still trying to get in for say an MRI, having to hurry up and wait. At least at the VA the professionals work for the same place, their checks all have the same signature and the vast majority of employees are really on your side. Many of the non medical employees (and a number of the medical support staff) are vets themselves, some are even patients as well. It’s not just a paycheck to many, it means something to them, just like it does to the patient.
SWMBO
@Ruckus: Congratulations! Must be a relief to hear. You must go out and celebrate! Next year!
Azelie
@Brendan in NC: This is a worry in Louisiana, too.
JPL
@Ruckus: That is such good news. It’s quite a milestone.
Zzyzx
@Ruckus:
we do have a lot more people working from home here so that probably helps.
My long term hope is that this dies by a thousand minor improvements. That, while we don’t have herd immunity, the 30% we might get lowers the transmission from 2.0 to 1.5 or so. And then people wearing masks in grocery stores lowers it to 1.3 or something like that. And meanwhile, we come up with some better treatments so the death rate goes down for those who do get it.
We’re so expecting a silver bullet, but when the problem is due to exponential growth and large populations being overwhelmed, small differences can add up.
zhena gogolia
@Zzyzx:
Wow, some hopefulness on Balloon Juice. I’m pleasantly surprised. Thank you. You’ve articulated my inchoate hopes as well.
JPL
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They will get use to 3,000 a day dying.
WaterGirl
@Ruckus: That’s great news, Ruckus! I had seen Elizabelle’s question about the pulse oximeter but hadn’t seen your news when I replied earlier. That has to be a huge relief. I will toast you with a small glass of wine with lunch.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Zzyzx: They get the RO under 1 it dies by itself. The problem is the No nothings will just be source of infection for a while.
Starfish
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone: Mississippi has 7,550 cases. Though Tate Reeves was stupid, the guidelines he has for opening up seem similar to Colorado’s. He was planning to open up at the end of last week, and they ended the week with about thirty deaths so he decided not to.
A friend who works in a hospital in the south said it is either really quiet or COVID-19 patients with nothing in between.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
That’s my fear as well. However, I do have to wonder why the predicted 10,000 cases/day with mitigation never happened according to the state’s modeling. Even the 1900 cases/day never materialized at peak.
Bruce K
Meanwhile in Greece, somehow the R-factor is currently at zero-point five. First stage of opening started today, so we’ll see how it goes.
LuciaMia
@Ruckus: Huzzah!
dr. bloor
@p.a.:
Yeah, I think the numbers I saw for mortality were 70% nursing home or similar “congregant living” status, and 80% aged 70 or over. Theoretically, that should make tracing easier, but Latinx are wildly over-represented, which I think is a reflection of the fact that they’re over-represented in the “front line employee” cohort. 02909 is getting creamed, and it’s going to be a real challenge to contain in Providence proper.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Ruckus:
Congratulations! Good news. ??
rikyrah
@Ruckus:
YEAH!! On your anniversary.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Deleted. Very weird double post
Zzyzx
@zhena gogolia: I do think that the debate has been poisoned to the point where it’s hard to discuss this normally. Trump keeps talking about miracle cures so we have to go back and say, “Actually, this isn’t going to make the virus vanish overnight.”
That makes it harder to focus on the idea of figuring out what might help. Like instead of “Masks: useless or amazing?” I want a conversation about, “Here are the situations where masks can help, here’s where you need medical grade, here’s where one of those etsy ones will be good enough, and here are the situations where transmission is so improbable that a mask isn’t going to help much on top of that.”
I want less yes/no questions and more how much ones. But I’m a programmer with a math bias who controls his diabetes through massive analysis of his blood glucose data, so that’s my bias.
Ruckus
@dmsilev:
I live in Covina, I don’t know of a Trader Joe’s near me, there is no Whole Foods around, we have Sprouts. Not bad, just not quite the same as Pasadena, where I lived last. It’s sort of a level or two below Pasadena on the shopping level, we do have an IKEA, but Target and Wally World are the biggies. And I don’t do Wally World. At my last job the CEO had been a financial planner and one of his prior clients was Wally World’s head lady, the one with the big W to start her name. I learned more than I wanted to know about the Ws and refuse to set foot in one.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Ruckus:
Good for you! Congratulations!
p.a.
@drdavechemist: tks!
rikyrah
I just got a phone call from one of my team. She couldn’t come get her computer for work at home last week because she wasn’t feeling well. ….
Cue to today….the symptoms haven’t gone away..
I told her to get a test ASAP :(
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@JPL:
I very much doubt that. Just imagine how many friends and family those 3,000 people have. Do you think they’ll be okay with it?
JPL
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): If they lose one of the evening whackos on Fox news, then they might. Fall without their favorite shows on the air, might cause alarm also
I hope that you are correct. btw
Matt Smith
@Searcher: Same. Every week or so, we’ll get in the car, drive around town, see what people are up to. On yesterday’s drive, we scoped out commercial areas to see what restaurants and stores are doing. Texas started reopening on Friday, but still we were shocked to see restaurants open with (distanced) outdoor seating. We wouldn’t even consider it at this point. Even saw some clothing retailers open for business! We also visited the parking lots of Costco, Sam’s Club, Target, and a grocery or two, just to see how full or empty they look. But half the point was just to get a change of scenery.
germy
David Anderson
@Zzyzx: Yep, that is a good case scenario — a little bit of this; a little bit of that, significant changes in habits here, tweaks to habits over there…. and we get out with our hair mussed
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
Cool. I had the same problem trying to buy soap. I’m limited to basically one brand and even then one color of soap or I get skin issues. I’m weird, I know I’m weird, I understand my weirdness, have lived with it my entire life so I just live with it and move on. But with the BS of the last couple of months and stores being out of everything, my hard to find soap became impossible. The store that usually carries it was out. Went to Amazon bought what I could, then found that I could get it online from Target, delivered to a local store, for the regular price.(Target does not stock it in the stores around me) Tried to stop the Amazon purchase, it had been shipped so now I have a several months supply. I paid more for the 4 bars I bought on Amazon than the 12 bars I bought from Target. It’s a wonderful world isn’t it?
dmsilev
@Ruckus: Oh, I thought you were still in Pasadena. I haven’t been out of Pas since this started two months ago (work started a lockdown a couple of weeks prior to the statewide order), so absolutely no idea what things are like even in the nearby communities.
Brachiator
@p.a.:
This is true to some degree all over the world.
In Scotland, for example,
However, there is another way of looking at this. There have been a large number of cases in places where there is a lot of social contact, and the people in the social spaces cannot easily move around or leave. This includes nursing homes, prisons and naval vessels. By contrast, the lock down and social distancing helps more mobile people avoid getting the virus.
Also, while elderly people and people with certain health conditions have a greater risk of dying, the course of the disease can still be challenging, unpleasant and costly for those who recover.
There is a strange misconception that younger people are magically immune. But if we stupidly relax social distancing, hand washing and other measures, the number cases and number of deaths across more groups will likely increase as well.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Ruckus:
That’s great! Keep it up!
Kay
We have a funny situation at the courthouse. There’s no mask rule but the sheriff’s department deputies who run security are wearing masks and want the public to wear them. So they put up a sign- they “highly recommend” mask wearing. I carry one now so I put it on because I do think they’re at increased risk and it just seems considerate to give them this, given that part of their job is interacting with everyone who walks in. The group that were entering with me were very good natured about it – one woman used a tiny boys pajama top – tie the arms behind your head, front covers face and nose. I think it is hysterical what parents just happen to have on their person :)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Brachiator:
This. On top of that, a lot of people might appear outwardly healthy, but have some undiagnosed conditions that aren’t displaying symptoms yet. Thus, the immune system would already be weakened. Plus, there’s some evidence that higher initial viral loads play a role in disease severity
Ruckus
@Searcher:
I put on a mask and walk for a couple of miles a day. Having moved only a mile from my job, I now walk to work except when it’s raining, and the likelihood of that happening in the next 4-6 months is around zero. I’ve lost weight, my BP is great, my balance stays acceptable if I walk a couple of miles a day. So I get to see the traffic up close and too personal.
germy
Visited my local farmers market. Outdoors through the summer.
Their website asks that all visitors wear masks, and please leave their dogs home.
I noticed a few people with no masks (three young people, not all together) and some older folks with masks only covering their mouths. Noses uncovered. And lots of dogs.
Everyone is asked to keep six feet away, so the lines are long. The majority of people are cooperative.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Kay:
I’m not happy that mask wearing is only recommended in Ohio and not mandatory in public. What do you think of DeWine’s handling of this pandemic, Kay? I fear he’s going to open up too soon and all of the lockdown will be for nothing
narya
@rikyrah: IIRC you’re in IL? Lemme know if you need help directing them somewhere they can get a test.
germy
@Ruckus: I’ve been doing more walking. Can you recommend a good walking shoe? I’ve had problems with scraped heels, etc.
And thank you for the good news about your remission. Excellent to hear.
CaseyL
@Ruckus: Fantastic news, and congratulations! Will you need to still go in time to time to continue monitoring? (I think they like to keep an eye on you for five years.)
Brachiator
@Ruckus:
This is really cool. I have been trying to walk more. It’s great to hear of your good results.
Immanentize
@Ruckus: Cancer free is a good thing! Please stay that way….
Matt McIrvin
@Zzyzx: I just heard that some epidemiologists at the University of Minnesota are basically saying there’s no hope, we’re going to ride all the way to 60-70% infection and a million or so dead and there’s nothing we can do about it.
Anotherlurker
@germy: I can recommend Merrill’s. For me, they are rugged and comfortable. For 2X the price, I can recommend Ecco.
Kay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I think he’s done a good job. I haven’t run into a lot of “open it up!” screechers here, which surprised me given it’s a 70% Trump county. All in all it’s been kind of nice. Everyone’s trying to deal and not be an asshole. I worry a lot about my youngest. He’s very social and I can just see this wearing on him. I spend a lot more time with him but obviously I’m not 17 and not a friend replacement. He’s just..diminished. Quieter and sadder.
WaterGirl
@Ruckus: Please don’t feel like you need to take the pulse oximeter because I may end up with two. I’m certain that I have friends who will not have thought ahead to even try to get one.
But I suspect that it’s more important for you to have one than it is for them to have one, so you get first dibs.
Let me know either way? thanks
Ruckus
@Zzyzx:
A pandemic is never good, lots of people will die. Obviously the most susceptible will be the weakest, which is the old and infirm. And in this time that’s old people who live in close quarters with others, nursing homes, etc. But the biggest issue is exposure to someone with the disease, worse if they don’t know they have it. We have the best healthcare that the human race has ever had, the largest number of prepared and trained people, the ability to learn and make and distribute a vaccine and still the system is overwhelmed because of the numbers. Humanity just doesn’t have the ability to move that fast and work that effectively and with large exposure comes large, predictable results. Add in the BS from our “leader” and we are in deep shit. Our federal government is all but useless because the “leader” is only interested in profit, even though he’s never been able to figure out how to make one, in any situation he’s ever stuck himself into. I’d mind less if he was at least successful in profiting, but he’s no better at that than he is at anything else.
WaterGirl
@germy: It’s still a bit like playing russian roulette if everybody doesn’t do the right thing. Most just doesn’t cut it.
Kelly
Once we have a vaccine with a little bit of luck the hard core Trumpists will go all in on anti vax nuttery and cull themselves from the herd.
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
Email me with details and if the $ is not horrible I’m in.
Mary G
@Ruckus: I’m so happy to read that your cancer is in remission!
??✨??☘??☄?????
I had a pulse oximeter for years, but it died in a sad accident involving a cat and a cup of hot chocolate. Since my readings had been fine and I only needed my inhalers after I had a cold, I didn’t replace it. The housemates had one they bought at a swap meet, in the before times and checked me a few times, but they took it to one of their patients that really needs it. I looked at them on Amazon, but the prices are outrageous compared to what they used to be. I can afford it, but won’t.
I have stayed home since March 5 and feel very restless. I would love to take the car out just to see the beach and go through the InNOut drive through but the masks I ordered on Etsy haven’t come.
The housemates report that the traffic is almost back to normal, so I will stay home some more.
Jay
Had to go to the ER today. Telemedicine sucks, on phone with an actual Clinic is way better, but they arn’t seeing most patients, so the ER is all that is available.
They are running the ER like shiny, efficient machines with lots of love in their eyes. Doing everything right.
Bit veklempt about what they all are doing, how well they do it, the care they give.
pamelabrown53
@germy:
Hi Germy. Someone has already recommended some good brands. However, I’d like to recommend Sketchers because if you drag your heals, you’re going to go through whatever the brand. Sketchers have good support and are comfortable with (generally) a choice of widths. If you’re hard on your heals, I think these shoes are the best bargain without sacrificing quality.
Subsole
@Ruckus:
Congrats on the good health news!
Zzyzx
@Matt McIrvin: so basically there will be no vaccine, no cure, no treatments, no advantages whatsoever, so let’s just open everything up then?
I mean maybe that’s how this plays out but it does seem a tad pessimistic.
Kay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I decided early on I was just going to delegate public health to public health experts. I don’t do any advanced reading or second guessing. I listen to Acton and do the best I can to comply. It’s easier and we all have enough to worry about without a crash course in epidemics. I see my role as managing my family and business in a pandemic – they do the public health. To me it’s an easy call- I can listen to her or I can listen to a bunch of screeching Trump supporters. No fucking brainer. She could be dead wrong half the time and odds are she’ll still be righter than they are.
pamelabrown53
@Matt McIrvin:
So…what conclusions did you draw from he U of MN. epidemiologists?
If they’re right wouldn’t that mean fully opening the economy and just let the chips fall?
satby
@Ruckus: That is good news, congratulations!!
satby
@Mary G: I can get you a nice mask fairly quickly if you want to email me. A vendor at the market is making them and I’m getting some freebies because I’m giving her two yards of fabric. Let me know!
Yutsano
@rikyrah: Oh not good. Hoping it’s not too serious. Positive thoughts for her and you!
Baud
@Ruckus: Excellent news.
rikyrah
@narya:
If you could help, I would appreciate the information.. We are in Cook County
Ruckus
@germy:
I like New Balance. I’ve had my best luck with them. But like most everything else about me, my feet are also weird. Shoes are something that I’ve had to work to find some that fit and that give me support and are comfortable. Most will be amused to find out that other than webbing, I have duck feet. Wide at the front, narrow at the heel and supportive as a empty bag of air. I’ve been buying one shoe for about 2 decades, since I found one that works. Last year the VA made me my second pair of orthotics and they are better than the first pair. Which were made in about ten minutes by a guy who had decades of experience and watched me walk about 5 steps. When he retired the VA met with me in a committee setting to discuss shoe orthotics. Weirdest health appointment I’ve ever had. Now they take a foam mold of your feet, send it off and 2-3 weeks later they arrive. And they are amazing. It’s the same standard production item as before, with added support as you need, just done from a mold rather than decades of experience. Best I’ve ever had.
satby
@rikyrah: yes, that’s a good idea. Keeping good thoughts for her.
Subsole
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Depends. One of the monitor techs here was going on about this being like the flu.
I pointed out that this has already killed 60k+ in one sixth of the time flu takes. He was surprised; had no idea 60k were dead.
That bubble eveyone talks about? It’s more like a dyson sphere at this point.
James E Powell
@Ruckus:
Awesome. Congrats.
Baud
@Zzyzx:
I agree with this. It’s not ideal, but it’s what we can do given the importance of vindicating email best practices.
James E Powell
@Hunter Gathers:
I don’t think so. I’m going by the people who are saying it and the tone & manner in which they say it. To me it seems like they are desperate for Trump to be re-elected and they believe opening the economy is the only way that happens.
Matt McIrvin
@pamelabrown53: Keeping the curve flat enough that the hospitals aren’t too overwhelmed, presumably.
Personally, I think we could be doing a lot better if we just had decent national leadership not actively trying to hinder the states that are behaving responsibly. I mean, it’s KNOWN that it’s possible to get R<1 and smash the curve into the ground. But that’s not going to happen until January 2021 at the earliest.
Amir Khalid
@Matt McIrvin:
That’s a defeatist take. I wouldn’t consider such a situation inevitable or acceptable. I don’t know why anyone would.
Subsole
@Baud:
Hey, how’s the feets?
Sab
@Kay: I also think deWine has done a good job. He has made it respectable to do the right thing.
Ohioans have turned out to be a lot more obedient than I expected. If the governor suggests wear a mask then most of us seem to be doing it even though it is not mandatory.
When I first started wearing a mask in March people looked at me like I was nuts. Now we glare at the oddballs who aren’t wearing them.
Ruckus
@CaseyL:
My doc talked about that and it looks like they will follow up till I’m gone. The intervals will extend farther and farther apart, as long as things continue to look reasonable and nothing else has to be done.
Mallard Filmore
@pamelabrown53:
It does not have to be that bad. Look at South Korea, China, Australia, New Zeland, Viet Nam. They have this under control.
As long as we have Trump and the Republicans in charge, it will be that bad.
Ruckus
@Immanentize:
Giving it my best shot. This getting old crap is good, but less fun than I’d been lead to believe……
Baud
@Subsole: Much better. Almost back to normal. Thanks for asking.
Kay
@Sab:
Really? I was pretty confident they’d comply. I don’t think they’re mavericky, as a rule.
I’m impatient with the amateurs. The demand for immediate, definitive answers. It seems childish to me. The best thing about the public health experts is they ADMIT they don’t know. I know that makes people anxious but just fucking buck up and deal. Live is full of unknowns. You do the best you can.
I can and do forgive it in my 17 year old but I refuse to extend the same to grown-ass adults.
Ruckus
@Kay:
Good to see you back.
Yeah, a 50% record beats a zero% one. I look at it that no one is going to be 100% because it’s a changing situation and there are moving variables, as in trumpers and their “leader.” The spread is reasonably understandable, it’s the people who have to be out of control that is the worst variable. The idiots, morons and followers of the them.
WaterGirl
@Ruckus: It will be my treat. I’ll just have to figure out how to mail the package without going to the post office or UPS.
Ruckus
@James E Powell:
I’m still trying to figure out how he wins with half his support, dead. Sure there will be a lot of democrats who are less than reasonable but still it seems that most of the complainers are right wingers. Even here in CA we have a significant RW component, who think not at all. As long as they don’t kill everyone else…..
Subsole
@Kay: There are a lot of grown-ass adults who only manage to meet two of those three descriptors.
Kay
@Ruckus:
I think the public health experts don’t know but they are more likely to know more than anyone else. Literally anyone. I can’t imagine just saying “I don’t LIKE that answer so I’ll just go ask 500 random people”. I mean, consensus hive mind works for some things but it isn’t supposed to be used in every situation. It isn’t a situation where everyone is equal is and you just pick the answer you “agree” with.
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
In my neck of the woods we have a number of shipping stores within easy walking distance. Mask up and it’s all good. How ever not everywhere is this easy and I’m not remembering where you are. Also the PO around here are enforcing social distancing and masking up. That may be LA county because stores are required to only allow masked people to enter.
John Revolta
@Ruckus: Way I heard it it’s “Shit in one hand and hope in the other, and see which gets filled up first”.
Also, “Don’t piss on my shoes and tell me it’s raining”. You got kind of a mashup going there!
Subsole
@Ruckus: Horrible to say, and pure conjecture on my part, but they probably are reading the articles about it disproportionately hitting nonwhite communities and extrapolating from there. They think the protection of complexion extends to autoimmune matters.
Kind of like all those chuckling gargleshits who called it the boomer remover, three decades ago in February when it seemed to be killing mainly old folks.
Come to think of it, those assholes got mighty quiet, mighty fast…
WaterGirl
Question for anyone/everyone:
What percentage of the (adult) population do we think is incapable of accepting that there are things that we cannot control, like Mother Nature and the behavior of a virus?
We cannot will away a tornado, or a flood, or straight-line winds, or an earthquake, and viruses don’t listen to arbitrary deadlines.
Is it too much to ask that adults understand that concept?
This immaturity and seeming inability to accept reality is killing people.
James E Powell
@Ruckus:
No lie. I’m living in SW Riverside County. Trump country. Wal-Mart parking lot looks like Christmas. I think it’s because so many other places are closed.
Ruckus
@Kay:
Now if you could only get that idea across to the conservative side of the aisle, that would be great. And I do think that OH might just be a bit different, having lived there for a decade. But I lived there when they passed the no smoking ordinance in Columbus and the uproar before it passed was mind blowing. The speed with which it was welcomed after it passed was pretty amazing. Like the first day and people could go out to eat without having to wear a scuba tank for the fresh air. Which of course had made eating difficult before.
Jay
@WaterGirl:
the Post Office will both pick up and deliver.
Ruckus
@John Revolta:
That does sound better. But I was stationed in Charleston so the language barrier may have colored my hearing.
Jess
I only wear a mask when I go into a public place (which I rarely do)–I don’t wear one outside walking around. I’m confident that fresh air and sunshine makes it safe to go outside without one, but I do keep my distance from people. Has anyone heard anything that suggests I should rethink this?
For walking shoes, I recommend Keens. I’ve tried a lot, and so far they’re the best. Get waterproof or at least water resistant hikers–it makes hiking much more fun when you’re not trying to dodge mud puddles
Edit: I’m not walking around crowded streets.
Ruckus
@Subsole:
I think you have hit upon something and I had the same thought. They have been trying to figure out how to get rid of anyone who doesn’t look like them and doesn’t not think like they do since the founding of the country. If they only understood that their racism has no basis in reality, only in political terms. But then they wouldn’t be them.
Ruckus
@Jess:
I wear a mask because the more of us that do, normalizes that. The more people that don’t wear one, normalizes that. As a number of people have pointed out, most people don’t like their lives to be challenged or changed against their will. And let’s face it wearing a mask all the time is different for most. Including me. But it’s also necessary a good part of the time. So I do my part to make it look like that is all the time that I’m out and about. Every little bit helps.
Jess
@Ruckus: That’s a good point. I’m going to start putting mine on as I exit my car instead of waiting until I’m in front of the store.
Subsole
@WaterGirl: “Dr. Oz and Dr. Phil to the fuscia courtesy phone.
Drs. Oz and Phil to the fuscia courtesy phone…”
Zzyzx
@Jess: I do not wear a mask when I run after reading all of the potential reports I could find, but I also make a point of going out at 6 AM and using side streets and crossing the street whenever I do see someone.
I’m a diabetic that uses exercise to control my numbers so going out and running is important for my health, especially because there’s a correlation between high blood glucose and coronavirus hitting harder. Everything I’ve read seems to come to the same conclusion that if you’re not in a large group and you keep distance, it’s very hard to catch/give it that way, so – for now – I’m sticking to that. If the data changes, so will I.
WaterGirl
@Jay: I googled, but it wasn’t clear how to do that. If you happen to know how I can do that without having to sign up for the post office.com thing where I have to buy a scale, etc, maybe you can let me know? thanks
Why are you at the ER? Or shouldn’t I ask?
Subsole
@Ruckus: From everything I have seen growing up white, it is purely emotional. Like, it is crazy how much of this shit is sublimated teenage angst over being secretly afraid they aren’t as ‘cool’ as some other ethnic group.
That may just be a millennial thing, though. Not sure it explains Reagan. That fucker was mean.
sdhays
Oh, yes. This is another way that the idea that COVID-19 is “like the flu” is insidious. You can survive and still be noticeably scarred, and being young and relatively healthy doesn’t necessarily make that less likely. I think most people would take something that could leave you with diminished lung capacity (for example) for the rest of your life a lot more seriously than “the flu”.
“Survival rate” obscures how nasty it can still be to people who survive.
sdhays
@Jess: I’m the same. When I go on walks in the neighborhood, I typically have my 14 month old son strapped to my chest, and he’s not wearing a mask because he won’t allow it. So I don’t bother either. We walk where there’s lots of space and make sure we have plenty of space between us and others. If we can’t avoid other people, I turn and cover him and myself up while they pass.
When I go out on my own for grocery shopping or getting the occasional carryout, I wear a mask.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl: https://tools.usps.com/schedule-pickup-steps.htm
You can print shipping labels at USPS.com as well (that’s how I ship most pacakges). It’s pretty painless.
But, we have a house and don’t worry about things disappearing from the mailbox (where we leave things for pickup). It might be more problematic in an apartment, especially if you don’t have an “office” where you can leave packages for pickup.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: Thanks for the info! I have a house, so I’m good there.
I grudgingly signed up for the usps.com account. :-) This should simplify things for me, but for whatever reason, I have always resisted doing that. And I’m electronic girl!
J R in WV
@Ruckus:
So glad to hear your remission continues~!!~ That’s great news and gives us all a little boost in mood!
OT: After spending Saturday afternoon on the roof putting patches on all the holes the trees put in the roof membrane, I was anxious to see in Sunday night’s heavy rain storm how things held up against the storm. NOT SO WELL ~!!~
So today I got all the tools and materials together and clinbed the ladder up, got a broom and swept the roof deck and inspected it over and over – no holes punched in the roof ~!!~ What gives? How was that water getting under that good looking patched up roof membrane???
Then I noticed that the upper roof’s gutter was knocked away from the drip edge at the bottom of the rubber… leaving a big slot, some 8 or 9 feet, for water to run off the roof and into the wall, from which it flowed onto the sheet-rock of the guest room ceiling.
It isn’t fixed fixed, but it’s patched up until I can round up an actual contractor to work on the crushed framing and broken 4×12 roof joists where the porch roof got beat down nearly a foot. It did rebound after we got the tree off the roof, but I’m still pretty sure some structure inside the roof is broken.
Oh, well, no one was harmed in the whole event so far…
Ruckus
@Subsole:
I think Regan was a lot like trump. He wasn’t that good an actor, was at best a shitty governor, and he sucked donkey balls as president. His ego was bigger than all the rest of him by a large factor.
A lot of people never advance emotionally past HS. They stop physically growing and then they stop emotionally growing because they think they have grown as far as possible. When they go out into the open world they think they have arrived and never see the need or possibility of going farther. They wake up when they arrive at geezer and that’s a real wake up call for them, because they don’t have the tools to go any farther.
J R in WV
@WaterGirl:
Minimum of 27% … but we seem to be exceeding that number lately. Perhaps from Trump’s monumental amount of free TV time with Coronavirus briefings?
I’m thinking the second wave, starting in about 18-20 days, will be really bad, compared to the last 6 weeks. These “don’t make ME stay at home” jerks will be transmitters of virus to everyone willing to be with them at the store.
I’m willing to wear my lavender 3M industrial respirator until hell freezes over, and anyone who thinks that’s odd in any way can go have their pneumonia off somewhere away from me and mine!
Hoping I can get new filters for it soon… they don’t last forever. So far, so good, tho.
neldob
Here in Washington we have Tim Eyman, a RWNJ grifter suing Gov. Inslee about the shut-down and this on my local feed lot – “This coronavirus lockdown is awfully convenient for tyrants”. Deplorables are everywhere. Biden for sanity.
Brachiator
@WaterGirl:
Trick question. As a species we try to understand the world and to control it as best we can. Otherwise we would not be trying to develop a vaccine and instead would be praying to statues or sacrificing children to appease a truculent deity.
Philbert
@Zzyzx: Living here in King County, what I see when I go out is that people continue to take distancing seriously, and so do stores and businesses. After 9/11 when the security was thrown together in a panic, but over time became sorta-smoothly part of process. I think the same thing will be for Covid.