Blogmaster bait!
Modern Dog Grooming in Bangkok is taking extra precautions to keep both its staff and their furry customers safe in times of social distancing https://t.co/H0WWamEPiz pic.twitter.com/fsLTNR4Fod
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 6, 2020
So you may have seen some scaremongering stories about coronavirus “mutations” in the past few days. Don’t read those. Read this one, which is far less scary and far more tethered to reality. https://t.co/kmwRcPoUG0
— Amanda Mull (@amandamull) May 6, 2020
… If those viruses happened to be in the right people—those who traveled from China to Italy before the latter went into lockdown—they could easily have spread explosively across Europe, and eventually into the U.S. Indeed, that’s the pattern we see: The D614G mutation first appeared just before the coronavirus moved into Europe, and almost all the G-viruses around today are descendants of that initial continent-hopping pioneer. China’s intense social restrictions likely stamped out many other coronavirus lineages within its borders, and stopped them from spreading further. “The only lineages you’ll see are those that got out, which include the ones with this mutation,” says Bill Hanage of Harvard, who studies pathogen evolution.
Such events are especially important in the early stages of a pandemic. Some virus lineages will do really well and others will disappear for reasons that have nothing to do with the viruses themselves and everything to do with the movements of their human hosts, whom those hosts interact with, and the policies enacted by the countries those hosts live in.
This isn’t to say that the Los Alamos study is bad or wrong—it comes from a respected team and presents interesting data. But the evidence it provides cannot distinguish between two equally plausible explanations—that the G-viruses were more transmissible, or that the G-viruses were just lucky…
being asian in america during covid
january:
– worry about relatives overseas and send them masks
– try to raise awareness to people too racist to believe youmay:
– relatives are worried about you and send you masks
– the racists now blame you and want to kill you— wilfred chan (@wilfredchan) May 6, 2020
Always a silver lining, if one looks closely enough…
great to see Dutch criminals stashing cash in re-usable bags
any business can be sustainable https://t.co/WI3SCY8dx4
— Ben Walsh (@BenDWalsh) May 6, 2020
Belgian, U.S. scientists look to llama in search for COVID-19 treatment https://t.co/RXn2HQluim pic.twitter.com/NCIogAKdXR
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 6, 2020
BRUSSELS (Reuters) – A llama called Winter could prove useful in the hunt for a treatment for COVID-19, according to U.S. and Belgian scientists who have identified a tiny particle that appears to block the new coronavirus…
The group began four years ago looking into antibodies that might counter the SARS virus, which spread in 2003, and the MERS virus that flared up in 2012.
“The work was a side project in 2016. We thought maybe this was interesting,” said Xavier Saelens, joint leader of the Belgian part of the collaboration. “Then the new virus came and it became potentially more crucial, more important.”
Winter, the llama, was given safe versions of the SARS and MERS viruses and samples of its blood were later taken…
.
What if we promise to tell you it makes your… hands… look big?
Here's an answer to the question, "Why don't men want to wear masks?"https://t.co/GbLtz3XJXb
— Alan Neff (@AlanNeff) May 3, 2020
During the 1918 influenza pandemic, officials had to design new public-health messages specifically targeted at men who thought a lot of the anti-flu measures were too feminine. https://t.co/7faBSlKJtP
— Matt Pearce ?? (@mattdpearce) May 5, 2020
Quote of the year: “If you expect elementary school children to endure the trauma of active shooter drills for your freedoms, you can wear a mask to Costco.”
— Sara Elizabeth Dill / ???? ??? (@SEDLAW15) May 2, 2020
Artist Lionel Stanhope teamed up with Britain's Network Rail for a mural celebrating the National Health Service showing an iconic image of Superman https://t.co/MLa7T2FC2L pic.twitter.com/RPDtLLwwuG
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 6, 2020
Let’s stipulate that life does not follow math proportions, and that circumstances of deaths differ greatly.
But can’t stop thinking about 4 US deaths in Benghazi leading to special cong investig committee and years of hearings.
Four Covid deaths are now about 3 minutes’ worth.
— James Fallows (@JamesFallows) May 6, 2020
The warping of the conversation about death tolls is problematic. People who warn of dire consequences get labeled fear mongers or worse. Some are accused of wanting to be right at all costs.
All this wrangling cheapens our losses. 2/
— Andy Slavitt @ ? (@ASlavitt) May 5, 2020
I participated in a conversation with the lead modeler and reported what I heard. At the time, even with the hope that Americans would #StayHome, the reasonable estimates of most models were 100,000-250,000, in some cases higher. In some cases much higher. 4/
— Andy Slavitt @ ? (@ASlavitt) May 5, 2020
The president was quick to come out & claim success for this new number, even though his team had told him 100k-250k. We could have had over a million deaths, but now it will be 50-60k. 6/
— Andy Slavitt @ ? (@ASlavitt) May 5, 2020
Making sure that didn’t happen is the primary reason I, along with 15 other bipartisan health care & scientific leaders launched the #StayHome #StayHomeSaveLives initiative. Because even with bad news, if you have the truth, you can act. 11/
— Andy Slavitt @ ? (@ASlavitt) May 5, 2020
When Trump says he knows everything, he knows nothing.
When Trump says he knows nothing, he knows something that he doesn’t want you to know. https://t.co/NtHbLcQ3nn
— Windsor Mann (@WindsorMann) May 5, 2020
zhena gogolia
I am really digging some of the never-Trumpers these days. George Conway tells it like it is. I know, I know, Kellyanne. (WaPo link.)
Lapassionara
Thanks, AL. As usual, a brilliant compilation.
Mike in NC
Fat Bastard and his henchmen are working hard to scapegoat China (or as he pronounces it “Gyna”) as deliberately releasing the virus, and pretty soon there are going to be widespread attacks on random Asian-Americans from the goobers carrying assault rifles and Confederate flags to their state capitals. Xenophobia is one of his most reliable and predictable moves.
Anya
@zhena gogolia: How is that marriage real? I know some ‘society marriages’ are unorthodox but come on, how are they staying together?
zhena gogolia
@Anya:
I really don’t know.
rikyrah
Thanks for being on the COVID-19 beat, AL.
Anya
@Mike in NC: I was watching U.K.’s channel 4 and they were talking about how this strategy is losing America a lot of world allies who were initially supportive of the idea that China’s secrecy and cover-up caused the world a much needed time and prevented countries from protecting their citizens. Of course the vulgarian overreaches on everything so the stupid conspiracy stuff is giving China more of a leg to stand on because they are now defending against a crazy accusations not some legitimate criticism.
jl
The llamas will save us! I am sure of it. I think they are nicer than camels. At least I remember going to some petting zoo, and patted one and it didn’t bite my hand off. I’d check the wiki but too lazy right now.
As for masks and emasculation, how dumb to some of these dudes have to be? is it because the the sound ‘mask’ appears in both words? These idiots don’t mind masquerading as non-shitheads. In a sit-com, these kinds of dopes are the comic relief next-door neighbor out-of-it white guy doofuses, but in real life 40 percent of the country takes these mooks seriously. Unbelievable.
HumboldtBlue
@zhena gogolia:
We’ll take anyone who can consistently and coherently and stridently point out Trump’s failures. He sounds like the entire commentariat here I don’t care who he is married to.
Also, I’m 12 minutes into Becoming and I have already teared up twice.
I learned that llamas are used as guard animals.
Baud
@jl:
I really thought the alpacas would step up. Disappointed.
Anne Laurie
Either they’re bound by genuine love & history (not to mention their young kids)… or they’re really, really cynical. Playing ‘good cop, bad cop’ in the certainty that whichever side ‘triumphs’, one or the other partner will have a prime slot for profit in the DC / Media “village”. Or maybe both are true!
I’ve been with my partner for more than 25 years, which is approximately 24 more than either of us expected, going in. And we don’t even have kids. All I know for sure is that every relationship is more complicated than it looks from the outside.
Gin & Tonic
What does the word “quietly” mean when it ‘s used to describe something that’s on the front page of the NY Times?
jl
As for models, sad thing is that the IHME model was only useful for the exponential explosion part of regional epidemics. Useless after the peak. Curve fitting is OK if it is not humanly possible to do anything to change the shape of the curve. Past the peak, lots of human policy interventions can change the shape. For example, you want to make it go up again? Sure, that can arranged. Just reopen before you have an outbreak control system that can handle… you know… outbreaks outbreaks that are 99 percent sure to arrive.
But, shouldn’t blame the IHME people too much. Clear now that Trumpsters really don’t give a damn, and if the IHME model doesn’t give them the forecasts they want, then they do far dumber curve fitting on their own, and pump that bilge out to the public.
Edit: actually the IHME covid-19 model failure is sad. They do top notch work in chronic non-communicable and endemic infectious disease, produce excellent data sets. They were lax in thinking techniques that brought them great success in another field of health care could be adapted to acute infectious disease epidemics without much self-critical analysis. Didn’t perform due diligence checking with experts in that specific field, IMHO. Harmed their own reputation.
Tenar Arha
@Anne Laurie: They’re like the living embodiment by marriage of “why not both?!” to being “inside the tent pissing out & outside the tent pissing in.”
It boggles my mind if I pause to think about either of them.
Hildebrand
@Anya: I am absolutely convinced they are running a classic two-person con.
jl
@Baud: “I really thought the alpacas would step up. ”
Alpacas never step up. If the llamas don’t pan out, we’ll have to go on a very dangerous and tortuous journey through the dark and dangerous woods to the alpacas, and be nice to them, and hope they deign to help us.
dogwood
I see that Duterte isn’t letting the pandemic slow down his fascist power grab. The major network, ABS-CBN, in the Philippines shut down yesterday. Problems with “licensing” renewal has taken the purveyor of “fake”news” off the air.
Baud
@dogwood:
Hungary is in bad shape too.
ThresherK
Hey, those Future Brain Donors are also the idiots who most resist wearing motorcycle helmets.
Villago Delenda Est
Men who fret constantly about “emasculation” really have very little (see what I did there?) to worry about, because they have tiny dicks.
planetjanet
That Scientific American article describes so much of what is wrong with this country. Could it really be that simple. Fragile male egos will kill us all.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic:
Haha, I thought the same thing when I saw that.
zhena gogolia
@Villago Delenda Est:
I think masks are sexy.
ETA: Didn’t any of these people ever see George Clooney on ER?
Tom Levenson
@jl: “Nicer than camels” is an exceptionally low bar.
Another Scott
GovExec:
Nope, not my bag – your bag.
Nope, not my bag either – your bag!
OMG! Get me out of here!! I’m not holding that rassin-frassin Bag!!
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
@Mike in NC:
So let’s see, they hate the mexicans/latinos, they hate the muslims, the jews, the natives and now they hate the asians. They have not yet hated the hindus yet. I guess we aren’t there yet. They have been working hard to hate the liberals too.
Looks like they might as well expand the message that we are all disease carriers.
cain
@jl:
But they look really masculine with a white bed sheet over their heads.
raven
@jl: A friend of mine worked on a film called ?El Charango? about a Andean stringed instrument. The film included a trip down into a mine and an episode about Llama’s The part about the Llama’s was pretty disturbing because they had the tied up before slaughter and the animals knew what was coming and we freaking out. I had seen it once and was at a screening and sitting next to a family with a couple of kids. As the scene approached I told the parents they needed to get the kids out of there. They did.
On a lighter note here’s my vid of some Llama’s and Alpaca, kids and Bohdi chasing them.
mrmoshpotato
@Anya:
I’ll take George’s Outrage Is A Sham for 800, Anya.
raven
@cain: NOW they hate Asians???
R-Jud
@Hildebrand: Oh, I think they’re involving all of us in some kind of kink they share.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Grievance, resentment and misogyny to the bitter end
cain
They hate em.. but they can legit hate em now, cuz they are plague carriers!
mrmoshpotato
@HumboldtBlue: Woo hoo! *opens Netflix
Mary G
Honestly, you couldn’t make some of this shit up:
Not on my pandemic bingo card, that’s for sure.
ETA:
Your tax dollars at work, America!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Maybe someone should feed them.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
@zhena gogolia: or Adam West and Julie Newmar in the original Batman (photo) ?
/fixed
cain
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
I’ve seen some PoCs also object, but our lady of the blog – AngryBlackLady is a fan of Warren. I’m also a fan of warren – but for VP I think I would prefer Kamala. We need a bull dog, head smacker who will put some fear in the hearts of others.
Warren is better off in the Senate, plus she’s nearly as old as the rest.
cain
@mrmoshpotato:
I suspect my gf is going to be having a watch party with her sorority sisters (alpha kappa alpha?) to watch that. Forever FLOTUS!
Fair Economist
@jl:
I do blame them, because the initial assumption of a rapid decrease like Wuhan was already clearly false by the time they released the model, plus they had *NO* way at all to adjust the declining phase of the epidemic. The back end forecast method was deliberately faulty.
It was a model designed, intentionally, to project the forecast reasonably in the near term but under-project the long term destruction. They knew it would provide cover for do-nothing policies and hoped they’d get press and support from people who wanted cover for bad actions, like the White House.
Jeffro
@Mary G: too funny – just saw that on Twitter and came here to see if anyone had heard about it, and yup here we are. =)
Since this is an OT: watched “Scott Pilgrim” tonight with the family and that was just about what the doctor ordered. Weird seeing two future Avengers together in such an oddball movie, but still, good flick!
Mike in NC
@Anya: It’s always about the money. Always.
cain
@Mary G:
Haha – that was awesome. Incidently, Axl and I are from the same home town – Lafayette, IN. :)
Anya
@mrmoshpotato: I used to believe that but now I genuinely believe he really, REALLY hates Trump. I mean, who wouldn’t? He got as many judges as they can get and I tend to believe he doesn’t believe sacrificing the country for more wingnut judges is not worthy it.
I am just not clear how he stays with Trump’s mouth piece who lies for him and makes an ass of herself for Trump all the damn time.
jl
@Fair Economist: Fair points. I took it as a model as a good faith attempt to explain the importance of shelter-in-in place policies, since the US was so hapless, only dangerous and long and expensive versions of that policy were alternatives by then.
The kind of modelling and math they resorted too was a lot of work to go to just to please the Trumpsters. And it has similarities with what works well for chronic non-communicable and endemic infectious disease that stays around equilibrium. I mean, jeez, if they just wanted to please the Trumpsters, just takes a few seconds to get the excel trend line doohicky up.
I think more likely that they didn’t know much about modelling infectious disease, but thought they did after reading an intro. You do see examples of symmetric curves used to fit small, and uncontrolled, epidemics in text books.
jl
@Tom Levenson: ‘ “Nicer than camels” is an exceptionally low bar. ‘
For some reason your comment made me think that Pence reminds me of that doofus newscaster on the Mary Tyler Moore show, who in some ways was nicer than a camel, but in other ways not.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Anya:
The checks from the US Treasury clear.
jl
KYW Ted Baxter early 70s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqYMSkejABc
dmsilev
@Tom Levenson:
Better-tempered than a goose?
jl
@?BillinGlendaleCA: ‘The checks from the US Treasury clear.’
Well, maybe… the ones they’re sending out to us are signed by Trump, let’s see how that goes.
Patricia Kayden
Peale
@dogwood: Yep. ABS-CBN has been critical of the old man and his Marcos cronies. But you have to look at Duterte as a former marxist turned member of one of the cadet branches of Marcos. ABS-CBN is controlled by a very wealthy member of the oligarchy that was opposed to Marcos. So it was taken from them by Marcos and given to someone else. When Marcos fell, they took it back, because, well, it was stolen from them. This is really then a grudge by the former but illegal owners against the rightful owners who have been waiting for 25 years to either steal it back or ruin it for everyone.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@jl: Ted Baxter! played by Ted Knight. Ted Knight was in Caddyshack with Bill Murray. Bill Murray was in Zombieland with Woody Harrelson. Woody Harrelson went to college with Mike Pence.
jl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Woody Harrelson and Pence are the same age? Don’t look it.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@jl: I believe Pence was a couple years ahead of Woody– I heard him tell the story on Marc Maron’s podcast a while back
jl
So, intertube blurb click bait came up that Mnuchin is in a fight with Axl Rose? And Mnuchin’s come back was to put a Liberian flag in a tweet to Rose by mistake and thought it was the US flag??
I assume it’s a hoax and didn’t click.
Adam L Silverman
@Mike in NC: There are already random attacks on Asian Americans because of this stupidity.
laura
@Mary G: The Roadie Brothers and I have been texting amongst ourselves over the whole sorry spectacle. Also, however one may feel about Axl, he takes his role as a citizen as seriously as any of the rest of us.
jl
@Mary G: OK, thanks. I didn’t see your annals of the great Mnuchin-Rose death cage match. I skim the comments too much. So… it’s not a hoax. And I am not drunk. The US is on a bad speed trip. I think I’m oriented now.
Looks like Mnuchin lost, though. So, something good came out of it.
mrmoshpotato
Well fuck you Samsung – deleting YouTube and now Netflix from my DVD player.
Patricia Kayden
gwangung
@Adam L Silverman: Kicking women in the head, pouring acid on people, trying to toss them off subways….just the usual stuff.
mrmoshpotato
@Patricia Kayden: Silly Senator Murphy. There’re countless marks against Dump we could run on. “Dump wants to take away your healthcare” is just one – a big one – but one.
MomSense
I think the weight of this has sort of settled over me and I don’t like carrying it around. It would be much easier to adjust if I had confidence in our leaders and trusted their judgment. I’ve been very impressed by Maine’s Governor and public health team, but individual states cannot manage this alone and too many of our citizens are idiots. There is not an adequate testing and tracking regime in place which means every “reopening” plan is going to be forked.
Redshift
I know it’s not much consolation for the devastation the Administration inflicted on Iraq, but once again I hope someone there is able to take some grim pleasure that now we are being governed by the Coalition Provisional Authority.
Adam L Silverman
@mrmoshpotato: What did you do?
Adam L Silverman
@gwangung: I’m quite aware of what is going on. Expect more and more violence the closer we to the election. And then, regardless of who wins, after the elections.
geg6
@jl:
Sadly, it is not a hoax.
Axl’s been on a real tear against Trump and his henchmen for a while now. Which, I gotta say, kinda surprises me. I always thought he was an asshole. But it’s not a bad thing to have a few assholes on our side for once.
SiubhanDuinne
@HumboldtBlue:
I just finished watching it, and I had the same reaction. It’s beautifully done. The way Michelle connects so directly and intimately and genuinely with everyone she meets is beyond special. Guarantee I’ll be rewatching it soon.
@HumboldtBlue:
Jim, Foolish Literalist
This is fine
patrick II
During an interview today Donald Trump stated that he was not closing down the coronavirus task force after all. ” I had no idea it was so popular”.
Popularity seems to be the significant measure of why keeping the task force together is important.
Jeffro
FWIW George Conway has a doozy of an op-ed in the Post today/for tomorrow. Lays it all out. Wowzers.
Jeffro
@geg6: Axl’s a pretty woke guy…I think he gets it from Duff, the sensitive Gunner. ;)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Anybody ever says something like this to me when I go back to work or some asshole tries to cough on me or wipe their nose on me like that asshole did in some store recently, I swear to god I will beat the shit out of them
Redshift
@MomSense: Yeah, I agree. In Virginia we have a governor who’s a doctor, and he’s doing a good job under the circumstances, but the federal failures mean we can’t possibly have enough testing.
There was a news story a few days ago that the state had requested 500,000 swabs from FEMA in early April, and the order was cancelled because “FEMA HQ is canceling any [requests] asking for nasal swabs of over 14,000 per week for each state.” 14,000 per week!
They reduced the order and resubmitted, and received none for six weeks, and finally got 29,000 in the past two weeks. WASF.
patrick II
@patrick II:
Like many people, I have wondered what Kelly-Ann has on Trump.
Benw
@geg6: Axl was a jerk when he was young, but he’s grown up and is solidly a woke asshole on our side. Also in that same category: Sebastian Bach, who is also surprisingly woke and does not give a fuck about it
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Would some of these asshole idiots getting shot to death/beat up have a deterrent effect?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Jimmy Kimmel winds up and smacks president T.V. Fuddlehead with a 2×4
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Perhaps. Depends on who is doing the shooting and who is getting shot.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): For instance, the response to this is going to be very, very interesting.
Adam L Silverman
@Adam L Silverman: Also, the guy walking along side the state legislator is carrying a carbine, so technically not a large rifle.
rikyrah
THREAD
rikyrah
And, they won’t tell the public who these businesses are ??
rikyrah
????
rikyrah
???
rikyrah
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
What if it was white vigilantes shooting white racists/fascists?
Just to be clear I don’t condone violence but these evil pricks piss me off
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@rikyrah:
I saw that earlier today! It made me so mad. They’re trying to cover this pandemic up ?
Patricia Kayden
Hang tough, Governor.
Patricia Kayden
Arghhh
rikyrah
Redshift
@rikyrah: Yeah, I saw that on Maddow. The governor got a different model from the White House that says opening up is going to be fine. And they won’t show anyone the “new model.”
If we survive this and win the elections, a lot of people need to go to prison.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Again, it would depend on who the shooters were. Who the people who got shot were. And the context.
Elizabelle
Dana Milbank in the WaPost:
Adam L Silverman
@Patricia Kayden: SCOTUS just kicked one of these from Pennsylvania today. They refused to hear it claiming the orders were not unconstitutional. That will pretty much put paid to most of these that are brought in Federal courts. If they bring it in Michigan state court, I have no idea how it will play.
John Revolta
@patrick II:
Kellyanne was put on the Trump campaign by the Mercers when they decided to back the Pustule. I suspect she’s being kept there by them, for whatever reason they have e.g. keeping an eye on things and telling him what they want done.
Yutsano
@Tom Levenson: Llamas are dangerous…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@John Revolta: I think that’s all true, but I suspect her inner mean girl is also thriving in the willful, determined toxicity of trumpworld
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Patricia Kayden:
@Adam L Silverman:
The Ohio House of Reps today voted to limit the ODH Director’s power today. State senators say it likely won’t even come to a vote and if it does likely won’t pass but I’m fucking pissed. They don’t give a flying fuck about my life. “Essential” means expendable at this point
Another Scott
Evan Hurst at Wonkette on Rick Bright’s whistleblower complaint:
I haven’t read the complaint yet (the full thing is at a link in the Wonkette story). I hope summaries like Evan’s help it get the visibility it desperately needs. Hundreds of thousands of people may die in the US because of the criminal incompetence of Trump and his minions and we have to make sure people know the truth.
Grrr…
Cheers,
Scott.
Amir Khalid
@jl:
Ted Baxter, played by the late great Ted Knight. Ted Baxter’s wife once explained to Mary that she loved him because “Somebody has to.”
Ruckus
Men wear masks.
Real men make masks at home.
Barbara
@Another Scott: Grogan’s departure should not be viewed as a loss. As easy as it is to criticize Azar, Grogan is the budget hawk jeering at anyone who asks for more resources.
Barbara
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I wonder when we start hearing these state officials fretting about the loss of tourists and foreign investment, and why US travelers are being barred from entering other countries. You can’t wish away a virus.
Uncle Cosmo
@Adam L Silverman: Robert A. Heinlein would like a word from beyond the grave:
If Trump supporters were to show up armed and menacing at polling places, how many state governments would send in the police to ask them to disperse? How many of those police would be, shall we say, insufficiently dedicated to the right of citizens to vote without intimidation, or sympathetic enough to the goals of such “poll-watchers” to, shall we say, decline to enforce such an order to disperse?
I doubt any of us would be happy with the answers to these questions. We can only hope this sort of scenario never comes to pass.