What is Japan’s secret? If only they’d tell us pic.twitter.com/2ON39IeSG1
— Pinboard (@Pinboard) May 25, 2020
Follow live updates: https://t.co/GG1FaUfHEk and subscribe to our newsletter: https://t.co/fDq9xEDP89 pic.twitter.com/pkmiZrPMSs
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 24, 2020
I'm having trouble squaring polls showing 80% of Americans wear and support the wearing of masks with what I actually see on the ground, which has never been anywhere near that level.
I know there are gonna be selection effects especially in large crowds, but man…
— Zachary Binney, PhD (@zbinney_NFLinj) May 25, 2020
Oh there's a massive selection effect for sure.
— Zachary Binney, PhD (@zbinney_NFLinj) May 25, 2020
That the majority of people in the US have so rapidly changed their behaviors in such a short time is a HUGE story. There will always be refusers. Don’t give them attention. Talk about how many *are* wearing masks (by @aedwardslevy). Social influence is *powerful*… pic.twitter.com/1jg0lamGj3
— Elaine Hernandez (@e_hernandez8) May 23, 2020
Its U.S. spread may have started mainly in the coastal cities, but #Covid19 is spreading to the heartland. https://t.co/ZiR2o8WKNZ
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) May 24, 2020
(This is very much a “Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You” situation; rural counties, desperate for funding & jobs, leapt at the chance to permit penitentiaries and meat-packing plants rejected by more urbanized areas with better financial options… and the prisons / plants were happy to base themselves in areas where fewer residents and cash-strapped local officials were less likely to complain about shoddy standards. But those same rural counties still don’t have the funds, or the personnel, to fight a pandemic — and the big corporations responsible for the ‘hotspots’ have damned little incentive to help out.)
A lot of people in the US are wondering if they got the coronavirus in January. @rachgutman answers that question in a thoroughly reported piece that instead of shooting for easy answers, does the much harder task of delineating uncertainty. https://t.co/mAHpBQBZGa
— Ed Yong (@edyong209) May 23, 2020
New study finds Covid19 patients are no longer infectious after 11 days of getting sick even though some may still test positive. The data from Singapore adds to a growing body of evidence showing people don’t transmit the infection once they’re recovered. https://t.co/adRCousXYa
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) May 24, 2020
Public health officials say robust testing for the coronavirus is essential to safely lifting stay-at-home orders and business closures, but states are creating confusion in the way they are reporting the data. By @MRSmithAP https://t.co/vJLHjKFhU6
— The Associated Press (@AP) May 24, 2020
The @US_FDA blocked ongoing use of SCAN, a #COVID19 test that's been key to analyzing Seattle's epidemic. People self-swab & send it in. #FDA says self-testing is unreliable. Tell that to pregnant women & HIV+ folks who learned their status w/home tests.https://t.co/3pmlWbcVM2
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) May 24, 2020
BREAKING: The U.S. will restrict the entry of non-U.S. citizens traveling from Brazil, where coronavirus cases are spiking https://t.co/0P1bDzY7cP
— Bloomberg (@business) May 24, 2020
May 24, pandemic watch
The big 5 (BRIM-US)
Brazil's horrifying trajectory, within days of overtaking the US as leading daily toll of cases & deaths
Still no travel ban, watching this dramatic rise > 3 wks
Persistent ascent in cases and/or fatalities in Mexico, India and Russia pic.twitter.com/4ZWWZj9OIF— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) May 24, 2020
Qatar virus contact tracing app stirs rare privacy backlash and forces officials to offer reassurance and concessionshttps://t.co/w0yZMUNA0D
? Karim Jaafar pic.twitter.com/6DvWc0dIQU
— AFP news agency (@AFP) May 25, 2020
… The apps use Bluetooth radio signals to “ping” nearby devices, which can be contacted subsequently if a user they have been near develops symptoms or tests positive, but the resultant unprecedented access to users’ location data has prompted fears about state surveillance.
Qatar’s version goes considerably further — it forces Android users to permit access to their picture and video galleries, while also allowing the app to make unprompted calls.
“I can’t understand why it needs all these permissions,” wrote Ala’a on a Facebook group popular with Doha’s large expat community — one of several such forums peppered with concerns over the app…
The government launched the “Ehteraz” app, meaning “precaution”, in April and on Friday it became mandatory for all citizens and legal residents to install it on their phones.
Non-compliance is punishable by up to three years in jail — the same term as for failing to wear a mask in public — in a state battling one of the world’s highest per capita infection rates…
As #SARSCoV2 resurges in China doctors say it's different: incubation time is longer, & patients remain infectious after recovery. This might force changes in China's #COVID19 control strategies. Caveat: they offer no genetic info that could support the idea of a changed virus. https://t.co/KKuwi2zDih
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) May 24, 2020
should be clear here: the message is that japan is a mysterious outlier, not that "no one knows what works against the virus." if nothing else, one common element in good responses: acting fast https://t.co/7yfozB5xWy
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) May 25, 2020
… An early grassroots response to rising infections was crucial. While the central government has been criticized for its slow policy steps, experts praise the role of Japan’s contact tracers, which swung into action after the first infections were found in January. The fast response was enabled by one of Japan’s inbuilt advantages — its public health centers, which in 2018 employed more than half of 50,000 public health nurses who are experienced in infection tracing. In normal times, these nurses would be tracking down more common infections such as influenza and tuberculosis…
While countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. are just beginning to hire and train contact tracers as they attempt to reopen their economies, Japan has been tracking the movement of the disease since the first handful of cases were found. These local experts focused on tackling so-called clusters, or groups of infections from a single location such as clubs or hospitals, to contain cases before they got out of control.
“Many people say we don’t have a Centers for Disease Control in Japan,” said Yoko Tsukamoto, a professor of infection control at the Health Sciences University of Hokkaido, citing a frequently held complaint about Japan’s infection management. “But the public health center is a kind of local CDC.”
The early response was also boosted by an unlikely happening. Japan’s battle with the virus first came to mainstream international attention with its much-criticized response to the Diamond Princess cruise ship in February that led to hundreds of infections. Still, the experience of the ship is credited with providing Japanese experts with invaluable data early in the crisis on how the virus spread, as well as catapulting it into the public consciousness.
Other countries still saw the virus as someone else’s problem, said Tanaka. But in Japan, the international scrutiny over the infections onboard and the pace at which the virus raced throughout the ship raised awareness and recognition that the same can happen across the country, he said. “For Japan, it was like having a burning car right outside your house.”
For a deep dive into how South Korea is actually performing its contact tracing (sans apps), read this. https://t.co/nwz5HWvN5j
— Mark Zastrow (@MarkZastrow) May 25, 2020
India among 10 worst-hit COVID-19 nations as cases jump; air travel reopens https://t.co/rAkoly2sxb pic.twitter.com/Ayu1Vpbuct
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 25, 2020
More patients than beds in Mumbai as India faces surge in virus cases https://t.co/yhmHozv2YS pic.twitter.com/NyS3nqaXLD
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 25, 2020
Russia's coronavirus infections pass 350,000 https://t.co/4CzJsoogtT pic.twitter.com/QVE5RHupT2
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 25, 2020
Today’s Russian papers are predicting a major economic crisis post-pandemic. One paper warns of “a wave of bankruptcies”. Another: “It looks like the end for small businesses and the middle class.” #ReadingRussia @BBCNews @BBCWorld pic.twitter.com/DWqjAtFWWO
— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) May 25, 2020
Let's check in with Sweden, the Control Group. How are they doing? pic.twitter.com/9HuvdWP07n
— #TestAndTrace Smith ? (@Noahpinion) May 25, 2020
Meanwhile, fewer than 8% of people in Stockholm have been infected, so herd immunity is not close to being achieved.https://t.co/TQYAcM2QrC
— #TestAndTrace Smith ? (@Noahpinion) May 25, 2020
Germany's confirmed coronavirus cases rise by 289 to 178,570: RKI https://t.co/DjX9ln4qSS pic.twitter.com/bNKh8ZnNve
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 25, 2020
“As a result, this nation of 16 million people has had only 30 deaths.
Each death has been acknowledged individually by the government, & condolences paid to the family.
You can afford to see each death as a person when the numbers are at this level.” https://t.co/oHbSMpPh2X
— Dr. Oni Blackstock (@DrOniBee) May 22, 2020
South African president warns coronavirus outbreak will get much worse, as he announces lockdown measures are to be eased https://t.co/Hn98euriIh
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) May 24, 2020
The world's deepest gold mine closes after an outbreak of coronavirus among workershttps://t.co/ewnEEr3LLV
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) May 24, 2020
Coronavirus: Chile's president says healthcare system 'very close to the limit' https://t.co/xaPChyB28K
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) May 25, 2020
National parks hope visitors comply with virus measures https://t.co/Y8itONIKs8 via @medical_xpress
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) May 25, 2020
The winner of this year’s Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race is still waiting to return to his home in Norway. Thomas Waerner and his 16 dogs have been stranded in Alaska by travel restrictions and flight cancellations caused by the coronavirus pandemic. https://t.co/iFttfKyVxC
— AP West Region (@APWestRegion) May 25, 2020
Brachiator
Pretty much exactly as predicted.
Sigh.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s daily numbers: 172 new cases, of which 159 are foreign nationals, of whom 112 were illegal immigrants under detention; 8 are local infections in Malaysians and 5 are imported infections. Total 7,417 cases. 34 more patients recovered, total 5,979 or 80.6% of all cases. Of 1,323 active and contagious cases, 8 are in ICU of whom 4 are on ventilators. No new deaths, total still at 115. Infection fatality rate 1.55%, case fatality rate 1.89%.
DG of Health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said the spike in new cases should not be cause for concern because it was mostly immigration detainees already being held in detention centres, and not out and about among the general public.
WereBear
@Brachiator: That alternate world they live in does them zero favors.
They honestly “think” this is a Blue State/Big City plague.
OzarkHillbilly
Misery leads the way!
I wonder how things were in Branson.
Brachiator
The situation in Sweden is interesting from a scientific and cultural perspective. Most of the deaths in the country involve people over age 70, and also largely people in care homes.
It is possible that some of the Swedish elderly may have died not because of the virus circulating among them in care homes, but as a result of infected but otherwise healthy people bringing the virus to them. This has implications for the US as we relax the lockdown. There is a lot of talk about returning to normal, but not a lot of discussion about what we might do to protect people at risk of dying because of age or health conditions as younger and healthier people insist on their “right” to be able to move about society.
But Sweden may also be different from other countries for cultural reasons with respect to how they treat their elderly population.
Sweden may have developed a culture which views care homes as part of the end of life. Elderly patients with the Corona virus were not sent to hospital, even if further treatment might have saved their lives.
By contrast, in the UK, in Germany, and in Denmark, the rule is to provide care without regard to age.
In Sweden, a care home may be the equivalent of the myth of Vikings putting the old on an ice floe and letting it drift off to sea.
Brachiator
One more tidbit about the pandemic, courtesy of BBC News (I cannot easily find comparable information for the US). There is a useful story about the key figures and trends relating to the Corona Virus and Scotland.
In the US and elsewhere, there is lots of focus on the number of deaths, with (as usual) Trump implying that accepting a certain number of deaths as inevitable is necessary if we are going to open up the economy. This is nonsense, and might blow up in his face if there is a serious surge in cases in the next few weeks, or later in the winter.
But in addition to data about deaths, the information from Scotland gives a good idea of the impact of the pandemic on hospitalizations and on the number of patients in ICU .
Here in the US we are dependent to a degree on Trump being smart enough to at least support state efforts at keeping hospitals from being overloaded with infected patients.
YY_Sima Qian
Today I had an interesting experience going back to the hospital in Wuhan. To complete check out procedures and pay the remaining balance of charges. When I left the hospital a couple of months ago, their Finance department had yet to return to work.
A few observations:
1) The hospital (being a designated non-COVID hospital) is pretty crowded, but not quite to the normal squeeze before the epidemic.
2) Temperature checks are still standard at entrances of buildings, but to my surprise there is no checking for the green health code.
3) Everyone still wear masks.
I also went to a designated COVID-19 hospital (no active cases there for quite some time, though) to get yet another test done. I had planned to travel to Shenzhen in Guangdong Province for business later in the week. The customer had told me they just needed a negative PCR result within the past seven days. The medical staff all still wore Tyvek suits and surgical masks and hair cap, but only the nurses taking the samples wore N95s and goggles. The entire process from registration, payment and testing was pretty quick and relative painless, though surely would be frustrating to foreigners without Chinese skills (more steps than seem necessary, at different locations, limited English signage with poor translation).
Apparently, to take a flight from Wuhan requires negative PCR and negative antibodies (at least IgM). The PCR test and the serological antibody test (blood drawn from the vein) cost $30 without insurance. Results in 48 hours.
Unfortunately, I learned after I have been treated that the customer I was planning to see actually requires visitors from Wuhan to go through 14 days of quarantine, and a negative PCR within 7 days, before I can enter their campus. So now the trip is scrapped.
I sure hope these restrictions on Wuhan residents will be relaxed in the future.
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
Birmingham – Jefferson County had 329 new cases and 2 new deaths yesterday. Gov. Ivey’s loosening of restrictions have had predictable results.
On a personal note, I had an interesting discussion with the internet tech sent to my house. He followed the protocols well enough, and made sure that I let him know that I wasn’t and hadn’t been sick before entering the house. However, his biggest issue with life in the time of C-19 is that doctors are issuing orders instead of elected officials. I pointed out that doctors were more likely to know what to do during a pandemic, he immediately hit me with “Dr. Fauci told everyone not to bother wearing masks!”
When I told him I wouldn’t be re-engaging until after a vaccine was available, he asked “Are you going to take the one from Gates with the microchip in it? It tracks you wherever you go!”
I answered, “Oh, so like a cell phone then?” He didn’t have much to say about it after that.
Dude was technically proficient, and gave me accurate answers as to why I wouldn’t be able to get the package the salesperson sold me (even called back to make sure my billing was corrected), but holy shit he believes some seriously fucked up stuff about this virus…
Brachiator
@Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant):
It’s still tough to easily find masks. If Bill Gates wants to send me a few, I’ll take them, microchips and all.
I guess your Internet guy’s mixture of angry insanity and conspiracy theory is officially a thing. These people want to harp on how listening to medical experts is “undemocratic” and so by definition invalid, which is crazy. I guess I hadn’t really been paying attention to signs for the Gates nonsense, but yeah, it makes “sense” as another excuse for real patriotic Americans to avoid doing simple stuff that might actually save lives.
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
@Brachiator: Let me tell you, seeing that level of lunacy in the wild is some scary shit – and I don’t scare easy. Perfectly normal one minute then BAM – here comes the crazy!
Head on a swivel and check your six…
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
@Brachiator: Also: he said that he feels things will settle down after he election. Make of that what you will.
satby
@Brachiator: you have no idea how much they deserve it. There’s a deeply hateful refusal to follow any CDC guidelines, secure in the knowledge that it’s all a media hoax, just like the flu, and mostly kills city people anyway.
We’re living in Hutus vs. Tutsis times.
Suzanne
I made my big move almost two weeks ago. We were neurotic AF about masks, disinfecting wipes, hand washing, sanitizer, etc. But it was really interesting to see which states were not. In Missouri and Oklahoma, we saw almost no one wearing masks. We ate outside or in our hotel rooms. Here in PA, everyone has to wear a mask in stores. I like it.
I went to Costco yesterday and was pleased to see that they had almost everything in stock. No disinfecting wipes, but plenty of Lysol. Was able to get gloves, TP, meat, hand soap, paper towels. And an employee complimented my NANCY SMASH face mask.
StringOnAStick
@Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant): People who do a lot of driving for their jobs and choose talk radio while doing so can/are getting all that crazy shit they believe from there. So,yes, Radio Rwanda analogies apply.
Betty
@Suzanne: Congratulations on your successful move. Best wishes with your new life.
Suzanne
@Betty: Thank you. Not done yet. Still need to get into a new house and Mr. Suzanne is looking for work. So I’m still stressed out. But trying to relax.
kindness
Trump wishes he could lead with the callousness of Brazil’s Bolsonaro where he is determined to get herd immunity even if it kills his people.
Bonus surprise: It will.
frosty
@Suzanne: Congratulations on the move and welcome to PA!
WaterGirl
@Suzanne: I’m so glad you are nearly to your 14 day count after the move! I understand that 11 days is a big marker to get past, though I’m not exactly sure why that is. (except that it’s obviously closer to 14 than, say, 9, 10, or 11).
Soprano2
@OzarkHillbilly: Well, I’m about 30 miles from there and I didn’t hear anything bad about Branson, at least not so far. Those lakes are a different “culture” I think, more about fishing and boating and cookouts at the cabin or campground than partying at a “pool bar”. I wouldn’t be surprised to be proven wrong, though. Also, I think “Steal Your Dollar City” is still closed, too.
VOR
People assume the experts have all the answers. But COVID is a new virus and much about it was unknown several months ago. The experts (CDC, WHO, etc…) have changed their advice over time as new facts are learned. Masks were not recommended in Jan/Feb, but now they are recommended. Transmission of virus on surfaces was a major concern which caused a run on cleaning products, now CDC says it is a small part of virus transmission.
There are people don’t believe new facts ought to change beliefs or influence behavior. There are people who just want to be told rather than think for themselves.
jl
@Brachiator: Yes. There seems to be some epidemiologist guru who has captivated the government. I’ve read huge controversy in Swedish public health and epidemiology field over what this guy is doing.
I have to wonder if he knows what he is doing. He was crowing about the fact that the stupid and risky ‘get to herd immunity asap’ goal would be reached this week or next. Problem is that when you reach herd immunity by letting the epidemic rip, herd immunity is reached at the peak. So they are only half way through the mess.
You can let an epidemic run to have a soft landing at herd immunity, but it takes careful planning from the start. I don’t see any of that in Sweden.
As for Japan, I saw a youtube clip. Maybe because the civil liberty laws there are too strong for coercive large scale shut downs, the government has had careful planning, widespread use of masks, and very clear very prominent public education campaigns about how to stay out of high risk situations.
Plenty of controversy in Japan too. I read their medical association very skeptical of government low test policy. They are insisting that it must go with big stockpile of tests to break out if signs of big wave coming. How seriously is government taking that advice?