We’re not even really done with the first wave and moving on to the second:
As the number of new coronavirus cases continues to increase worldwide, and more than a dozen states and Puerto Rico are recording their highest averages of new cases since the pandemic began, hospitalizations in at least nine states have been on the rise since Memorial Day.
In Texas, North and South Carolina, California, Oregon, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah and Arizona, there are an increasing number of patients under supervised care since the holiday weekend because of coronavirus infections. The spikes generally began in the past couple weeks and in most states are trending higher.
Data from states that are reporting some of their highest seven-day averages of new cases is disproving the notion that the country is seeing such a spike in cases solely because of the continued increase in testing, according to data tracked by The Washington Post.
This was so easy to predict that I present to you Nostradumbass saying just this would happen:
A month from now we will be learning about all the clusters and super spreaders who killed people this Memorial Day weekend.
Enjoy your bbq and pool parties and trips to the beach, you fucking idiots.
— John Cole (@Johngcole) May 24, 2020
I got a lot of things going for me, but being a fucking genius isn’t one of them, yet I saw this coming. Then again, I did order masks before the rush when I watched China build a fucking hospital in ten days. That was your first fucking clue. Little did I know that all the people linking that story were doing it in a “Look at those crazy Chinese” way and not a “Wow, shit is about to go down” way.
Raoul
A couple of things:
– I’ve been grumpy for weeks about the framing of a ‘second wave’ in the fall, since the aggregate level hasn’t fallen basically at all. OK, NYC and Seattle aren’t in panic mode any longer, but as a country we’re about as fvkd as six weeks ago.
– Every bad faith person (hi Republicans!) will blame this surge in Covid on protests, not BBQs and bar hopping.
Ruckus
This is not even rocket custodian work. The problem is that it is normal common sense. Which of course it would be, if it were more common
japa21
@Raoul: DJT the younger has already blamed it on the protests.
LongHairedWeirdo
This is why I had a minor wake-up and realized just how awful Murkowski is for saying “I’m not sure I’ll vote for President Trump for re-election”.
He’s corrupt; he’s engaged in criminal activities; he tries to sic law enforcement on his political opponents; and he was asleep at the wheel while an epidemic hit, and spread; and, he’s a complete incompetent.
The Republicans love to lie by omission; they’ll state facts, that build a false picture, like “the UK thinks Iraq tried to get uranium from Niger (unspoken: we know that story is bogus)”.
The entire Republican congressional caucus is committing the greatest lie by omission in history; they’re failing to mention that the President is a clear danger to the rule of law, and the country’s overall well-being. By failing to point out the obvious, that Trump really is as bad as most people realize.
Of course, you *know* you can’t trust the Republicans, because they’re oathbreakers. They swore to see impartial justice performed, and then did something they’d only do for a President of their own party who they wanted to protect – perhaps the precise opposite of impartiality.
I’ve seen the term “oathbreaker” before and it never really resonated, because it was in fiction, and consisted of stuff like “you were sworn to this organization, and changed your mind and left it, you traitor!”
This time? It did, because I already knew that the Republicans would bend themselves into pretzels to lie about things, but this was the first time they all deliberately lied during a solemn oath, one that no one – *including* Mitt “the President can completely blow off any investigation, including an impeachment investigation, and that’s not grounds for removal” Romney – attempted to adhere to.
They don’t think their words have meaning; they don’t think their President needs to obey the law; they refuse to be bound by duty, or honor. And what really flabbergasts me is, they’re all collectively so incredibly *stupid* in their dishonesty. I mean, the world just saw them all say “So the President tried to strong-arm Ukraine in an astonishing act of corruption, and that’s just *fine* with us, so if he pressures you, you better just give in, and no whiny-ass complaints about ‘justice’ or ‘corruption’.”
cain
Oregon has perfect ‘flu’ weather – it’s been raining for the past 5 or 6 days and the temperature has been a yo-yo – in the lower 60s, today it is jumped to the lower 70s. So, I absolutely believe we are going to have more cases and of course – the restaurants and bars are now open and so there will be less social distancing.
We are going to be hitting a 2nd wave, and likely a 3rd wave.. this is going to keep happening – since we have no strong federal govt – the states are kinda screwed since they don’t have infinite money and they’ll start going bankrupt if they didn’t open up.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@japa21: Yeah, I figured that was their next trick. Apparently basic reasoning is beyond those Trump-loving idiots. (I know, don’t ascribe to stupidity what can be put down to just plain evil). Meanwhile my Repub in laws in the Deep South are acting like the pandemic is over and everything can go back to normal. argh..
Not all my in-laws, some are atheist Democrats , which is not easy where they live.
Kay
@cain:
That’s why I can’t go along with “it was because of the Memorial Day celebrations” or “it was because of BLM protests”
We opened the whole country up! It was happening with or without either of those things.
laura
Look, the president has grown weary of the virus and he’s decided it’s in the nation’s best interests to just move on. It’s gotten hot, so it just goes away. Problem solved. Nuff said. Economy!
Gravenstone
As a companion piece to this, just saw confirmation that the little town a couple miles from my family’s farm will indeed have their annual July 4 parade this year. This is actually a pretty big deal in our tiny corner of the world, having even gotten mention in years past on some of the local news stations. So that will be a gathering of several thousand folks shoulder to shoulder. Who will then disperse throughout the county and surrounding area to spread whatever the hell they caught. Just the sort of virus enriched environment my 2X cancer survivor octogenarian stepdad needs…
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@japa21:
Poor little Donald. It’s not as if he’s the most powerful man in the world by being POTUS. Nope, nothing is ever his fault and he’s perpetually a victim. And conservatives see this as strength. How pathetic
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Kay:
I suppose. At least the protests were about demanding justice and positive systemic change. Having BBQs on Memorial Day Weekend and packing into restaurants/bars was just selfish
Matt McIrvin
@japa21: It’s so trivial to debunk–if this were because of the protests, you’d think it’d mostly be happening where the biggest protests were, right? There’s an increase on the West Coast, but nothing in New York or Minnesota.
We may yet get a spike because of the protests (if we do get one, it should be noted that the police were behaving in a manner seemingly calculated to spread COVID). If it happens, it ought to be starting to appear shortly if not now. But what we’re already seeing clearly isn’t it.
mrmoshpotato
@laura: “Go away virus! Economy! Summer! You total loser!” bellowed the traitorous orange Soviet shitpile mobster conman.
bbleh
@laura: And it’s not just the Child-in-Chief, but all the little children, of all ages, who follow him.
It’s just mean for mommy and daddy to keep telling them they have to stay inside when they want to go out and get haircuts and play NASCAR!
And you’re not the boss of me, so there!
Soprano2
I’m surprised Missouri isn’t on that list, because in my corner of it people have decided that COVID IS OVER!. Probably 5% of the people I see in any store are wearing masks, tops. Our manager says most of the customers who have come back are the “I don’t give a fuck if I get sick” people. Problem is, we can’t make money on just those people. Here’s the thing, even at 50% capacity it’s going to be a stretch to just break even, let alone make money. All the people who think just opening up will solve all the stuff about the economy are delusional. Plus, sports with spectators and conventions and concerts probably aren’t coming back any time soon.
Yesterday at work they had a meeting in the conference room with over 15 people, no one with a mask. All these people they’ve separated to keep the risk of everyone having to quarantine if someone gets sick, and they put people from all those groups in a room together for over an hour with no precautions required! I said, well then everyone who’s working at home that I can’t get ahold of can just come back, huh?
jonas
Well, there’s a pretty easy way of knowing whether careless Memorial Day beachgoers and partiers who didn’t follow distancing/mask-wearing rules are responsible for these upticks, or people who went to one of the BLM protests. Large protests were held the last week of May/first week of June in Minneapolis, and other cities NYC, St. Louis, and LA. Are Covid cases ticking up significantly in those cities now? Not really, from what I can tell. So where are these new cases concentrated? From WaPo
Oy vey. Up until now, I was reserving judgment on whether or not outdoor activities were going to be a major problem as we entered the summer season (as opposed to crowded indoor activities like gyms, concerts, and churches). We still need more granular data on what those who contracted the disease had been doing when they might have caught it, but right now, my hypothesis is not looking like it will age well.
Krope, the Formerly Dope
Well, contact tracing should clear that up. We’re doing that, right?
How many people will hear the argument that numbers are going up due to protests, not the reopening, and make poor decisions about going out in public and continue to spread disease?
Jeffro
We as a country now get to spend the summer arguing whether it was Memorial Day partiers or BLM protests that spread the virus…instead of noting that
Sooner or later, with some leadership and good messaging, at least 73% of Americans could be brought to understand that if we sucked it up for 6-8 weeks, we wouldn’t have this mass death going on every. frickin’. week. We also wouldn’t be making ridiculous, completely unsatisfactory plans for K-12 schools this fall, for higher ed, etc etc.
Krugman wrote about it today in That Paper, referencing the famous ‘marshmallow test’. We just gotta have our marshmallow, metaphorically speaking, and so this will just drag on and on.
Duane
@Gravenstone: Would that be the parade held in Marshfield, the longest running Independence Day parade west of the Mississippi? I grew up there. Them there people ain’t none too smart.
eric
@Kay: if one blames it on the protests OR memorial day, then there is only one conclusion: any event that gathers large amounts of people in close proximity [is] really bad, even if outside. This tells me that opening up indoor arenas and facilities is a really, really, bad idea.
edited for ‘are’ to ‘is’
jonas
Yeah, but I don’t know if all localities release that information publically. They may inform the establishment, and anyone else they can reach whose identity was known by the carrier, but I’m not sure if they’ll notify the media about specifics, e.g. that “80% of these new cases were people who had hung out at a big family gathering at the lake two weekends ago”. That kind of information, properly anonymized, would be useful, however.
Jeffro
@eric: You’re correct – both are bad ideas.
It’s ridiculous. I’m actually embarrassed for our country that we are this far gone, this much of a mess.
Krope, the Formerly Dope
“Can I start you with an appetizer?”
“Yes, please, I’d like a crock of French onion soup and a side of the Rona…”
eric
When this is over, i want to know why Fauci et al said no to masks early on. There is no doubt that a decent mask on everyone would SLOW (even if not stop) the spread of the virus. Did they say no because Trump did not want a visual admission that the virus is a problem or did they really believe that the masks had little efficacy. I think it was the former, and they should all be ashamed.
Gravenstone
@Duane: No, a little podunk town in NW Ohio. Maybe this year will be different, but it’s not uncommon to have several times the town population attending.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@eric:
Dewine and Acton who always listen to the experts and follow the science just allowed movie theaters to open today in Ohio. It doesn’t matter if cases are decreasing in state. Other states are seeing spikes and people will travel this summer
The Moar You Know
And like clockwork, two weeks later, Arizona’s ICU units are at 100%. I bet anything they’re going to start sending them here, their favorite summer town, San Diego.
Just in time to max out OUR hospitals, which will in two weeks be getting slammed with the massive spike you’re going to see here following what’s been going on since the June 1st “limited reopening”, which was interpreted by a large swath of the populace and business owners as “do whatever the fuck you want”
Barbara
@Matt McIrvin: Minnesota has been in the midst of an increase for a while now. I don’t think it is protest related (it started before you would have expected that). I look at the Washington Post statistics every day. The nationwide numbers are misleading because the high population hot spots (New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts) are going down enough that it masks increases in other places. As in, the daily death rate is going down nationwide, but it’s going up in many individual places. Overall, it looks more like a plateau at this point.
The real losers here are the elderly and people with conditions that put them at high risk, some of whom might not even realize it. I plan to stay out of my office maybe forever, but if you don’t have that luxury — I mean, at a minimum, there should be some way to “diagnose” someone as high risk and allow them to collect unemployment, in addition, of course, to implementing much safer practices for those going back to work.
The idea that it should all go back to business as usual, even for actively employed people who are at much higher risk and cannot work remotely, really is obscene.
Matt McIrvin
@eric: In a lot of the places now seeing increases, people completely don’t give a fuck and are gathering indoors without masks. They’re going back to work and cramming into offices.
Matt McIrvin
@Barbara: It looked to me like Minnesota had a belated rise in late April-early May and is now a bit past peak.
Brachiator
Idiots can dance around the increase in cases with the lie ,”of course there’s more cases, we’re testing more people.”
But an increase in hospitalizations is a big fucking problem. This puts a strain on the entire health system.
But some people want to desperately get back to normal, and want to believe that the virus is not that bad or that a vaccine is just around the corner.
Other countries have done better. But here, not only is Trump incompetent, he is unable to learn or adapt. And he surrounds himself with dopes. So he just declares America open for business again, instead of coming up with a coordinated federal effort that combines mitigation with opening up the economy.
And so, state and local government again have to struggle and improvise.
And the elephant in the room is that not only do states need federal support, they are also going to need sustained federal financial assistance.
We are so screwed unless we dump Trump and get a lot smarter about this pandemic thing.
eric
@Matt McIrvin: it is odd to not see blaring headlines on CNN. They had nonstop coverage, then poof.
The Moar You Know
@eric: There weren’t even masks for healthcare workers at that point. Still aren’t in some places. Forget about getting an N95 for yourself, ain’t happening. Fauci and Co. made a rough choice there, but the right one.
Go watch the testimony of that whistleblower Dr. Rick Bright from last week. It’s horrifying. HHS knew they’d need three and a half billion masks just for healthcare workers in the event of a pandemic. They’d been begging for them since 2007. They were blown off every single year.
Two thousand fucking seven.
Bush did nothing.
Obama did nothing.
Trump did nothing.
So that’s why there still aren’t any fucking masks and Americans are tying rags around their faces.
Matt McIrvin
@eric: I think it was a combination of a couple of things:
Barbara
@Brachiator: Arizona is just ominous, considering how many elderly people live in the state.
eric
@The Moar You Know: even a bandana is better than nothing. they said nothing.
eric
@Matt McIrvin: I think you make very good points. However, I think that Fauci et al were afraid to demand massive mask production because Trump would not go along because of the messages it would send. If wearing bandanas or cloth masks had 10% efficacy, then at least 10,000 americans would still be alive.
bluefoot
@Jeffro: I completely agree and it makes me insane. If we had provided adequate PPE to essential workers and paid everyone else to stay home back in Mar and April, we’d be done with this by now. Instead we squandered the time with half (or less than half) measures, didn’t have adequate testing (and still don’t), and no coordinated response. So we’re going to re-open even though NOTHING has changed since March, except the virus has spread more and we know a little more.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@The Moar You Know:
To be fair, the Tea Party happened and swept the House in 2010 and stayed in control of the House until 2019. Obama was never going to get that money after 2010 and spent much of that first year trying to get the ACA passed
piratedan
@The Moar You Know: I believe that Obama asked for them, the GOP axed them out of the budget. The 2008 Congress was busy steering the government out of the ditch that 43 had driven it into, and as such, not everything got covered. So while I may give them a pass, you may choose not to.
Brachiator
@Barbara:
I’ve written about it before, but there just has not been a lot of thought given to adapting work and social spaces to make things safer for those at a higher risk. Even in the UK, the main advice for “the shielded” is for them to remain locked down forever. There is some discussion about changing things around so that “the shielded” can go outside for an hour a day. This sounds like someone in a maximum security prison.
But I don’t know what the UK does to help these people with their finances, and some of them also have medical conditions which require that they have nurses and care givers assist them. This puts even more people at risk.
I am also probably more at risk than the average person, but I can also work at home. But this will continue to be a problem for a lot of people.
Also, I think we are not just talking about unemployment compensation, but sustainable long term disability payments for people who cannot return to work and be in a safe environment.
Brachiator
@Matt McIrvin:
And for some Americans, wearing a mask is like wearing a burka. It’s weak, alien and dammit, just ain’t American.
ETA. Some of the false controversy over masks is also due to the idiotic insistence that science immediately have all the answers right up front. And I keep hearing grumbles from people who insist that they don’t need no science and could have figured out how to protect themselves with their common sense and some Internet research. A lot of these people really resent the loss of personal control.
They also want to believe that the worst is over. Wearing masks would contradict that belief.
Feathers
@Brachiator: The other issue in the UK is that you have to have a condition on the “shielded” list to qualify for supports or to be allowed to stay home. Needless to say there are far more conditions and rare disorders than are on the list. People have their doctors saying they are absolutely not to go out, but their employers are saying That’s not on the list.
Royston Vasey
I am so glad I live in New Zealand. Zero active cases and about 10 days to go to say we have eliminated it (28 days after last know case = 2x 14-day cycles)
All restrictions have been lifted except for the strict border controls (you’re basically not allowed in, if you are then its a 14-day mandated isolation!)
RV in NZ
snoey
@Matt McIrvin: We also didn’t know the ratio between surface and airborne spread. Some respiratory virii move almost entirely by doorknobs etc. Brave British cold lab volunteers had people cough in their faces to prove this. Now we know that this one is the reverse and we should thus mask up and fear the grocery store, not so much the groceries.
artem1s
and in another week we will be seeing the results of churches opening up for Pentecost. Gonna be a long hot summer.
trollhattan
@Barbara:
No worries, heat will stop it. [Checks Phoenix, 97 @ 11:00 a.m.] Any minute now.
JaneE
It really gets to me when Trump et. al. keep saying “China didn’t tell us” when everyone in the world knew they were building two new hospitals just because of Covid-19 in January. The last time they did it was another major disease outbreak, so draw the conclusions and act accordingly.
Then again, our blogfather probably is smarter than the entire Trump administration put together.
cain
@Kay:
Yes, it is only a matter of time. But we are an entitled bunch. Saw a bar yesterday, it wasn’t full or anything but the bartender should have been wearing a mask. I could care less about the people – if you’re there you’ve clearly decided to take a risk – the crowd seems to be your hunter/blue collar type – all white males.
Kay
@cain:
Around here I see the service workers wearing masks but only about 25% of the customers wearing them. I feel like if you won’t wear a mask then you won’t do anything- it’s not that hard.
bluefoot
@Barbara: At risk populations are really getting screwed (and some will die) as a result of this. My sister and her family are basically on lockdown until there is a vaccine because one of them is very high risk. They’ve haven’t left their house since the beginning of March, except for walks when there aren’t many people around. Thankfully their 8 year old understands the risks but it’s a hell of a way to live.
I know other people with elderly parents who live a short distance from them, but only see each other from 15 feet away. (The parents stand in the doorway, visitors on the sidewalk or front yard.)
Brachiator
@Feathers:
Thanks. I did not know this.
I try to keep up with the UK news, because I think that Boris Johnson is as bad as Trump.
Also some of the BBC News reporting about the pandemic in various parts of England, and separately in Wales and Scotland is often very informative. I can compare this to individual states in the US that are reacting differently to reopening their economies.
Kay
@cain:
It was “novel” so I’m not blaming anyone, but in the future we have to be more realistic. The best we’ll be able to do is get these jerks to wear masks and wash their hands. That’s the best case. Next time let’s just try to get that.
LuciaMia
@japa21: Cept the timeline is all wrong. It would take at least another week for the protests to have created a new spike.
Brachiator
@JaneE:
Trump always lies and always tries to evade personal responsibility.
He ignored or dismissed the clear information in his intelligence briefings.
The weak US response is all on him, not China.
And had the pandemic originated in the US, Trump would have been worse than China in lying about it.
Jeffro
@bluefoot: People should be ROYALLY pissed.
trumpov squandered 10 weeks between being told there was a major problem, and finally rousing himself to do anything about it. (He actually made it worse with all his stupid ‘hoax’ comments)
And then as a country, we basically squandered the following 12 weeks letting every state fight for PPE, figure out its own guidelines, “phases”, and all that crap…
…and we’re STILL losing 5k Americans a week with no end in sight, businesses crippled, and a sorry-ass version of K-12 school starting in less than 3 months.
Meanwhile, in New Zealand… >(
Jeffro
@Royston Vasey: You should be glad! Actual leadership, science-based policy making, and investment in civic infrastructure…we’re not exactly glutted with those in the US these days.
Duane
@Gravenstone: This 4th of July parade will have 8000+ in attendance and fireworks, too! Expect masks to be in short supply.
rikyrah
To work and home. That’s all the energy I have
mrmoshpotato
@JaneE:
The racist orange shitstain disbanded the pandemic response team, pulled the CDC’s eyes and ears out of China, and ignored warnings for 7 weeks!
All because of “Fuck Obama! I’ll destroy his legacy!”
ETA – Oh! AND IGNORED THE PANDEMIC RESPONSE PLAYBOOK THEY WERE GIVEN!
bluefoot
@Jeffro: I think I’ve mentioned here before, but I know someone in one of the intelligence agencies, and they were on high alert for a COVID-19 pandemic by January 3rd, and briefed the executive office (president etc) that first week in January. The federal government did NOTHING. Worse than nothing, they kept ignoring or downplaying the danger.
We’ve let tens of thousands of people die horribly, blown up the economy, and lined the pockets of the .1% with the “relief” bills instead of actually doing something efficacious. People at high risk are either trapped in their homes or risking illness and death going to their jobs or being exposed to sociopaths who won’t wear masks. Or they’re living in some sort if assisted living facility and can’t avoid exposure. It’s insane.
We’re basically doing a mass murder-suicide.
Zelma
John, this is off-topic but I got an email from Steve Smith (I’ve been supporting him) saying that he didn’t win the gubernatorial election but that the WV Can’t Wait candidates did really well in the down ballot races. I’m sure you are disappointed but the showing will give the good guys leverage over the Democrat who won. Good luck.
Ruckus
@bluefoot:
We will not be done with this till we have a reasonable vaccine, in production and going into arms at tens of thousands a day. And even after that it will take a bit of time. What we can do is mask up, suck it up, and move on.
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
Boris isn’t as stupid. He is as inept at reality. And his political backing isn’t any better. Other than that……..
catclub
They say that test is a test of delayed gratification and self control, but I think it is a measure, for those young kids, of how much they trust adults to follow through. There is no point waiting if the promise has never come through before, or only sporadically.
KM in NS
In Canada our public health authorities also didn’t embrace masks at first either, just hand washing. But, as more info became available, they modified their advice. That’s what science-based, evidence-based organizations do!
it hasn’t been fun being restricted since March, but we’re in fairly good shape in my corner of the country. Now that things are starting to reopen, I anticipate a 2nd wave. However I hope it won’t be as bad as the first wave. (Fingers crossed)
Brachiator
@Ruckus:
Johnson is just as arrogant and lazy and ignorant as Trump. Trump had his malaria pills. Early on Johnson was foolishly gambling on herd immunity, on the recommendation of his political advisor, Dominic Cummings.
robmassing
This feels reminiscent of 2008. A lot of us were screaming that home values don’t go up forever, that lots of people have homes they can’t afford, that when their teaser rates expire there will be an avalanche of foreclosures. Even after Lehman collapsed, it was nothing but happy talk from the Fed and the Bush Admin. Now here we are again, but this time with a pandemic.
Geeno
@eric: I think it was because they felt they needed to prevent a run on supplies. Not really sure if that’s better.
J R in WV
Back in 2007 people were buying second and third homes on interest only mortgages… where’s the common sense in that? Absent!!
Went to town yesterday, sticky on our calendar says dentist appt 6/9/20 — I get there on schedule, they ask “Do you have an appointment?” Yes, I say, why else would I be there?
Oh, no, they say, “Your appt is for 7/9/20!” OK, I say and run errands… but when I get home and look, the actual paper reminder I stuck to the calendar says in their handwriting “6/9/20” not enraged, but considering taking the calendar in to show them…
All that is off topic. After that fiasco, I did standard go to town errands. At Kroger’s where I do the majority of our shopping, most folks are wearing masks — especially the workers. But a substantial group are not. I wonder about that.
After I do check out, I’m walking around the big building I see different groups of folks arriving at the grocery store. The folks without masks are ALL SMOKING cigarettes — 100% do not care about their health at all, nor how much they risk other people’s health.
Smokers just don’t care at all about their health, they all believe in magical thinking — it won’t happen to me, medical science doesn’t matter at all ~!!~ And they really don’t care at all if they endanger my health, and my wife’s who is more at danger than I am. Fuckers!!
Now I hear rumbling in the sky, and look at the NOAA weather radar, and see that we’re under a severe thunderstorm warning the rest of the evening. Hope our power/sat connection holds up!!