Ok, people, I’m finally ready to get serious about fundraising this cycle.
Here is my thinking: giving money to Biden isn’t a great investment. Mostly presidential campaigns spend money on ads and that’s usually a waste. This cycle, I think that ads trolling Trump, just to fuck with him, are very effective and I think the Lincoln Project ads are successful in that regard, but I don’t think the Biden campaign could get away with that level of cheekiness. Better to leave it to outside groups. I think the Biden campaign is doing a great job so far, stay in the basement, stay quiet and dignified.
That leaves the House and the Senate. I don’t think much movement one way or the other is likely in the House. Winning the Senate would be a big fucking deal.
So my plan is to go all in on the Senate. I’m thinking I’ll just take all the races with Republican incumbents, have a big thermometer for all the Dems running against them and let you guys decide how to give. And then maybe I’ll run one for Doug Jones too.
How does that sound?
There’s a possibility that I’ll be able to get a friend to totally geek out and give some kind of Moneyball analysis of how we should give in the Senate, if anyone is interested.
marv
I’m interested.
Chetan Murthy
DougJ, music to my ears (I bet, a lotta others too). I also planned to not give any $$ to House candidates, and instead send it all to Senate, gubernatorial, local, and GOTV.
I don’t know about the latter three, but am looking around. Know what to do in TX, but not elsewhere. Kinda feel like it would be worth sending $$ to Georgia, but don’t know much. Maybe NC too.
But back to you: hells yeah, man. Hell’s yeah. I would be *happy* to be guided by your advice on whom to give to. Also, if by some chance you find a way for us to do it that doesn’t involve using credit cards (checks!) that would be *excellent*. I mean, 3% is 3%. It’s not nothing. Failing that, well, yanno, 20 checks isn’t the end of the world. 150 checks … that’s a little harder. But 20? Yeah, I can do that.
Fair Economist
Sounds good to me. I’m donating lots more this cycle than I ever have before, and my focus is on mildly “stretch” Senate races (MT, SC, GA, IA). And I *love* analysis!
Another Scott
Howdy stranger!
I’ve been doing a monthly donation to various things, including your Senate thermometer – https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bjgbcs – for a while. Uncle Joe, DCCC, DSCC, DLCC, also too. We need a strong team as well as strong candidates.
I don’t think we should assume the House will be fine. The GOP came back strong in several local elections in VA recently because Team D wasn’t as motivated and active. We should fight for every seat.
A post on the ways to maximize the impact of giving would be interesting.
Thanks for all you do.
A NOVA on Australia was on recently… “the sea level used to be 600 feet higher…” – that’s the kind of Blue Wave that I want to see this fall!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Benw
I’m also in the waiting room
Oh you said basement
ChuckBerryisGod
Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium has done this…
Home Page
Election tracking 2020: U.S. Senate
Act Blue Link PEC High-Impact Federal Races
Greg Ferguson
Mark Kelly here in AZ would be a very good investment. He’s polling well against McSally, so you might want to go for closer races elsewhere, but it would not be a waste.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott:
A fair cop. It would be useful to know if there are battleground House races that are vastly underfunded. I mean, we shouldn’t allow seats to be lost merely for the money. But OTOH, I do feel that if we lose the House, then we’ll have lost the country as a whole, and almost certainly the Presidency. I could be wrong about that. Could be very wrong. Whereas, if we win the House & Presidency, and don’t win the Senate, then …. well, it’s a holding action until 2022, when the GrOPers WILL tar us (the Dems) as do-nothing, and retake control. Ditto 2024 the Presidency.
Again, I could be wrong about this analysis: would certainly appreciate being corrected.
dww44
Glad to see you back at BJ and I think your Senate focus is the correct one.
Particularly timely, too, as I just scanned a Politico article quoting McConnell saying that he believes they will keep the Senate. If you can help engineer a GOP loss there I will be forever grateful.
And to sweeten the pot make
sure that McGrath wins, as does Doug Jones and maybe flip the 2 Georgia seats, especially the one that Loeffler bought with her husband’s money.
geg6
As a resident of a swing state, I’d like to defend some of ad spending here. There’s one ad from the Biden campaign that is running here that is very good, positive but critical enough to not be considered pandering to white men. Another by a PAC (don’t remember which) is a good one with an elderly white woman who voted Trump in ‘16 and is now doing a Zoom or YouTube or some other obviously self-recorded video saying how incompetent he is and how he’s bungled C19 and how she isn’t voting for him or any GOP. For who it’s aimed at and their voting turnout record, it’s effective. Three former Trumpers FB friends have turned in the last week. TV ads are still effective with certain demographics. You have to do it all. For now.
TaMara (HFG)
Thank you. I’ve been waiting for this and was just about ready to ask fellow BJ folk where I should put my money.
Your time and effort is going to save me some time and effort. And I’m on board, as it was how I was leaning anyway.
Glad to “see” you.
dnfree
Good plan. I decided to give to three local House candidates who were new in 2018 and are doing a great job. Other than that, the Senate is the place to invest, I agree. I like giving as part of a bigger plan.
DougJ
Thanks everybody. I know Sam Wang a little on Twitter and may mimic what he is doing. A friend had some ideas for something even a little more sophisticated, though I’m not sure if he has time to work it all out.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: My general thinking is that one has to have enough money to run one’s campaign and be able to quickly respond to last-minute attacks. But having 2-3x that much isn’t very helpful. The presidency seems to be different – the winner (almost?) always has and spends more than the loser.
An expanded House majority enables more progressive legislation, and protects blue-dogs who can’t go along with some things (it means their votes aren’t essential).
Yes, winning the Senate (SCOTUS, judges, cabinet secretaries, treaties, etc., etc.) is vital. And the bigger the majority there, the better, as well. But money for a zillion TV ads won’t necessarily help any more. We need to be able to ensure our voters can vote absentee and get to the polls safely.
We can’t take anything for granted. Government – at all levels – is too important.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Raoul
My take is: We have to whup their asses up and down the line. Maybe a sufficiently convincing running of the table might (maybe!) start the process of re-thinking the all-in =-on-racism strategy.
So my $$ priorities are about 15% Senate, 39% US House, 34% State Legislatures, 2.5% Governors (MN & CO aren’t up, so a lower priority for me) and a few misc things like DAs (including recalling Mike Freeman in Minneapolis). Yes I have a spreadsheet.
Runforsomething had a great Juneteenth ActBlue with black candidates from Congress to State leges to county level stuff. I was selective, but gave generously.
Part of honoring George Floyd is funding black and other POC candidates well, so that they aren’t crushed by money before they can even get going.
Mousebumples
I’m in for some $$, and I gave to WisDems last week. I wanted to support the local Democratic party to help develop a bench and fight for fairer maps on 2020 since our gerrymandering is out of control.
Are there any other states we should target for fairer districting, in 2021?
Raoul
Oh, and Colorado is close to 10% of my donation budget across the above categories (I spend ~9 weeks a year there, and it’s trending blue). I’ve decided to back Diance Mitsch Bush fairly strongly because a Q-tip open carry nutbag representing the western slope is just a bad, bad look for Colorado.
OK, a little more about my House-heavy strategy: There’s basically a large handful of Senate races worth bothering with. But there’s dozens of winable House seats (and some that may need defending). Any individual Senate race I will support gets more dollars per race than any but a couple very personally important House races. If Doug Jones is getting $200, figure House races I’d follow might get $35-75, roughly speaking.
And, here at home in MN, I’m giving big for MN Senate races. A hundred bucks in a $35K or 50K total race is so damn much more impactful than a hundred bucks to nearly any federal candidate. Our whole state senate is only up once every four years. And they’re dug in bad on George Floyd and shaking up policing.
Amir Khalid
Biden’s in his basement room, but fortunately not with a needle and a spoon. Alas, even though I wouldn’t get reported to the FBI now, I won’t be giving to his campaign.
Achrachno
I’m in — let us know when
Baudolino
I think contributions to Senate races will be swamped by the big bucks. Let’s spend on state races in states that could flip the statehouse in a census year.
AJ
Great to see your post Doug and YES, love this
Mary G
I’ve been giving monthly to likely Senate candidates since last year. I give to Lucy McBath who gives good emails and is defending against the female Trumpette Karen (Handel). I guessed right about Amy McGrath, who isn’t that strong, but you know, the turtle must be opposed. Would love to hear your analysis.
Remember Doug J, posts with pictures of Benny with the golden or any animal make more money from me.
Marcopolo
@Raoul: I gave a little bit to each candidate on the Run for Something Juneteenth list. I’ve already received a thank you note in the mail from Tiffani Koontz-Crawford so she’ll get a follow up donation towards the end of this quarter–reward the folks who do the little things like thank you cards.
My fundamental thinking is this is a straight up do or die election to save the American experiment. Period. And I am totally frustrated not to be able to physically work on any campaigns (live w/ an octogenarian so we are on lockdown quarantine protocol till there is a vaccine). So I am throwing caution to the wind and donations to candidates like some Mardi Gras Krewe member throwing beads to onlookers. I’m spreading money around in my home state & metro region (StL MO), to blue to red congressional races, to the flippable (and holdable senate races, and I make a monthly donation to the Biden campaign. I’ve been giving a little monthly to WisDems, VoteRiders, Fair Fight 2020, & RunForSomething for a year and a half now and that continues. I am really happy with the work all 4 organizations are doing, they are amazeballs.
Here’s the DCCCs Red to Blue list
The House is not flipping back R in Nov, but we can always use more D Reps. Looking at the list of 24 candidates here, apparently I’ve already given to about half of them plus Audrey Denny in CA-1 who is my ultimate long shot person. It’s not like I have a plan, but I responded to an EW fundraising appeal (6 of the women on the list) in April, I lived in AK for a decade so AK-AL, I planned on working on Jill Schupp’s campaign for MO-2 this year as it is next door to me (but the pandemic put a kibosh on that), I have a soft spot for MT so MT-AL, and I really think VA-5 and NY-24 are flippable.
As for the Senate, here’s my thinking. Kelly in AZ doesn’t need any help (monetarily or otherwise). Same goes for Hickenlooper in CO. I expect Sara Gideon to win the ME D Sen primary and she too will be well funded due to Collins loathing. McGrath in KY has raised more money than any other D Senate candidate this year & I think among the flipping opportunities she is about at the bottom so she’s off my list. I have, however, thrown some coin at all the other candidates including Doug Jones AL for the hold. Here is my handicapping on a 1-5 scale with 1 being most likely flip & 5 least:
Kelly AZ 1; Hickenlooper CO 1; Bullock MT 2; Cunningham NC 2; Gideon ME 2-3; Ossoff GA 2-3; Greenfield IA 2-3; Harrison SC 2-3; Bollier KS 4 (higher if Kobach is the R); Gross AK 4; TX (primary still to come) 4-5; Jones AL 4-5; McGrath KY 5. The GA special is a jungle primary winner take all with 2 R & 2 D on the ticket so I am staying out of that. There had been some concern that Peters MI might have a competitive hold race but that does not seem to be the case atm.
Last, but not least I am contributing to MO State HD (8) & MO State SD (2) races that fall within the boundaries of the MO-2 congressional district. If Schupp can flip MO-2, there will hopefully be some down (and up) ballot synergy.
As I said at the top, leaving all my cards & chips on the table in 2020. If we don’t win & don’t win big 2022 ain’t gonna matter too much.
Edited to add I also gave to Nicole Galloway MO-Gov this quarter but I suspect her chances of winning are less than Biden’s of beating Trump here in MO.
dww44
@dnfree: Just curious, what are the names of those three. I’ve been impressed with several who were newbies in 2018 and hope they get reelected in 2020.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: WisDems is where my money is going. I’ll give to Biden too, but the rest of my money is staying in state..
Marcopolo
One last post before I hit the sack:
Record cash floods Democrats, Black groups amid protests and pandemic
Read the entire piece–it’s fairly short–but the bottom line is I think the vast majority of D congressional candidates will have good to excellent funding this cycle (as will Biden) and should be better funded than their R opponents.
A woman From anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
Thank you Doug. I’m in.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: And this is only sensible. I mean, anybody who lives in a Red State, ought to put their money to use to turn that state Blue: their self-preservation lines up with our collective salvation. I think, really, it’s for us Blue Staters, to figure out where we need to be donating. And turning Wisconsin Blue, would be a great boon. A great, great boon. Fuck Scott Walker. Fuck Robin Vos.
Nettoyeur
@dww44: Sam Wang of Princeton Election Consortium presently shows the Moneyball States as:
President AR IA AZ Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC
There are some twofers hidden in there. Helping Biden in IA and AZ also helps Dem challengers for Senate. Helping Dem Senate hallengers in MT KS ME helps Biden.
Origuy
Katie Porter (CA-45) is going to have a hard fight in Orange County. I hope she wins, but if she doesn’t, Biden should put her somewhere she can be effective.
OR Soder
Please count NC among the possibilities. Tillis is not doing so well and Cunningham should be a strong candidate. We’ve recently moved from NC and I am still getting the emails Tillis started sending out. Although he reliably votes the R-line, the emails sound as if he’s fallen into a vat of blue dye. I would love to see him gone!
After Warren dropped out I transferred my monthly donation to the Lincoln Project. Only Republicans could go after their own with such glee and so effectively. But I could do a donation to the BJ pool too.
Richard Guhl
I currently give a monthly donation to the DSCC, but I’d be happy to join in this make it rain on Democratic Senatorial candidates effort.
I agree that giving to Democratic House candidates is not a great bang for the buck. Democrats have a generic advantage of about 8% right now, which was their margin in 2018, so the only way that needle moves is if Biden really runs up the score. Besides, we already have two North Carolina seats pickups baked into the cake. And even the rightwing Realclearpolitics website concedes that the Democrats are favored in 214 of the 218 needed for the majority.
So, count me in.
One question though, do we even have a Democratic candidate in Arkansas to oppose Cotton?
There go two miscreants
My grandchildren live in NC, and I do not. I would be interested in suggestions from our NC jackals for state lege or local candidates in NC who could use some support. Also GOTV orgs in NC. Thanks.
hells littlest angel
Can’t get much later to a thread, but I think this is the best idea. We need the Senate to make Big Progress.
Mousebumples
@Marcopolo: I just became an approved #PostcardsToVoters writer last night. And i suspect most campaigns are moving away from face to face contact. (e.g. WisDems are encouraging texting, phone calls, etc.)
I’m sure $$ is always welcome, but if you wanted to volunteer, i would hope your local races could safely accommodate you in some way.
Edit – in Wisconsin, the most recent polling from a week ago seemed to indicate a big % change in the Green Bay area from 60/40 Trump to closer to 50/50. That’s my neck of the woods, and I could probably recommend some state leg races – and I’ll probably give to Rep Gallagher’s opponent. We don’t have our partisan primary until August, however, so I’ve been holding off donating for now.
Another Scott
@Marcopolo: +1. Excellent.
I’m not willing to give up on just about anyone with a D behind them in the general yet. This election is for a census and redistricting which will affect politics for a decade. It is for a sensible pandemic response which happens once a century. And it is to prevent the next pandemic. It’s to rebalance our police, courts, and justice system overall. And it is to dramatically increase our response to climate change. And to rebalance our economy and foreign policy.
So very much is at stake. We have the winds at our backs, but we have to fight for the future we want to see.
Cheers,
Scott.
evodevo
Count me in – I’ve been saving my “stimulus” check for this…
Miss Bianca
I dunno – I’ll contribute to Senate races here, but I’m going to have to save a tiny bit of scratch for my House race, CO-3 – we have a nice liberal (repeat) candidate on the Dem side, Diane Mitsch Bush, and a raving gun-totin’ nut job whom I will just start referring to as Tombstone Barbie who just upset Scott Tipton on the GOP side. Bad as Tipton was, this woman would be worse.
dnfree
@dww44: late to seeing this, but our district is Sean Casten, neighboring are Raja Krishnamoorthi and Lauren Underwood.
SeniorMoment
I’m dividing donations between Senate candidates and DLCC state races. I’m still miffed at the past negligence of the Democrats regarding statehouses and the right-wing gerrymandering that resulted.
SuzieC
I’m in bigtime. Also writing PostcardsToVoters at the rate of about 20 per week.
Percysowner
I’m in. I’m already giving monthly to Biden and watching who the Warren Democrats are supporting. Concentrating on the Senate is a good idea. That said I think checking in on vulnerable House seats, both ones we could lose and ones we could flip, is important. I’d go every 3rd or 4th time, just to make sure we get as much as we can for all branches of government.
Raoul
@Marcopolo: “leaving all my cards & chips on the table in 2020. If we don’t win & don’t win big 2022 ain’t gonna matter too much”
Yup. We’re keeping our 20 year old Corolla and spending what we would have dropped on a car on this election (I pay cash for cars, which is obv a privilege, and a reflection on my dad who loudly derided car loans all his life).
If Dems pull it out and run the table, we’ll think about an EV in a couple years. If Trump wins, who cares how much money we have, this shithole country will be down the tubes in a flash.