Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Let there be snark.

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

In my day, never was longer.

John Fetterman: Too Manly for Pennsylvania.  Paid for by the Oz for Senator campaign.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

The revolution will be supervised.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Monday/Tuesday, July 6-7

COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Monday/Tuesday, July 6-7

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Speaking of predators…



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Surprise, surprise…

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Herd immunity is not going to save us:

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Some new info (Spunbond for filters) since we’re gonna need masks for some time to come:


(Also: Some Amazon sellers now have packs of self-adhesive nose wires in stock, if you need them)

Reader Interactions

27Comments

  2. 2.

    John Revolta

    Restaurants are open! Everything is back to normal!

    The five-second rule was good enough for my Daddy and by God, it’s good enough for ME!

  3. 3.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s daily numbers. Six new cases: two from local infection, one Malaysian and one non-Malaysian, both detected in workplace screenings; four cases from imported infection, all Malaysians returning from Russia (two cases), Indonesia, and Singapore respectively. Cumulative total 8,674 cases.

    Five more patients recovered, total 8,481 patients recovered or 97.8% of the cumulative total. 72 active cases remain in hospital for isolation/treatment; two of these are in ICU and both are receiving respiratory assistance.

    No new deaths; Malaysia has reported no Covid-19 deaths in the 23 days since 14 June. Total deaths remains at 121, with an infection fatality rate of 1.39% and a case fatality rate of 1.41%.

  4. 4.

    terben

    From the Australian Dept of Health:

    ‘As at 3pm on 7 July 2020, a total of 8,755 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Australia, including 106 deaths, and 7,455 have been reported as recovered from COVID-19.

    • Over the past week, there has been an average of 106 new cases reported each day. Of the newly reported cases, the majority have been from Victoria.
    • Following the peak of cases at the end of March, there have been a relatively low number of new cases reported daily between mid-April and early-June 2020. Cases have increased since mid-June however they remain below the March peak of daily cases.
    • Of cases with a reported place of acquisition, 57% have recent international travel history, including over 1,300 cases associated with cruise ships.
    • To date, over 2,801,000 tests have been conducted nationally. Of those tests conducted 0.3% have been positive.
    • On 3 July, 189 historic cases reported in crew members on board a ship were classified as Australian cases and included in New South Wales totals.’

    199 new cases today, 191 in Victoria. After 30 false positives were removed, the total increased by 169.

    The major change today is the news that metropolitan Melbourne will be locked down for six weeks, no one allowed to leave their homes except for

     

    • Shopping for food and essential supplies
    • Medical care and caregiving
    • Exercise and recreation (but they cannot leave the restricted areas for this)
    • Study and work if it cannot be done from home
  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Yesterday, Beijing (and by extension, China) reported a single asymptomatic case, no suspect cases and no new confirmed cases (a first since the start of the current outbreak). However, given a couple of the recent cases had tested positive while out of quarantine, and have been socializing, a small number of cases may still lie in the future.

  7. 7.

    Bruce K

    Greece: according to Kathimerini, 43 new cases in the 24-hour period ending Monday. 36 of the 43 were tourists testing positive upon arrival. That leaves seven indigenous cases.

    One dead in the last 24 hours.

    Somehow, as an American in Greece, it doesn’t help me to hear that I’m out of the danger zone and should stay away until it’s safer. I’m watching my country disintegrate from the other side of the world, and the one person I care about the most is caught in the middle of that catastrophe, and I’m stuck here helpless.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On the subject on testing system and its capacity in the US, why is the US still relying on two giant lab companies to process the vast majority of the tests? There are outbreaks in every part of the country, but people’s swab samples need to be express delivered to sites where these companies have facilities, and results are also mailed back. The logistics alone add 24 – 48 hours to the turnaround time. Now the labs themselves are out of capacity. Why is the FDA not certifying more labs to to run the RT-PCR tests (hospitals, universities, state/local health departments, private labs, etc.)?

    At the end of Apr., Wuhan had ~ 25K tests / day capacity for RT-PCR spread across a dozen labs; by mid-May the city had achieved ~ 70K tests / day across > 30 labs. For the mass screening at the end of May, more labs were certified with all facilities running 24/7, to achieve surge capacity of ~ 200K tests / day. With 5:1 sample pooling, Wuhan was able to test 1M individuals / day. At the start of the Xinfadi outbreak in Beijing, the city had ~ 50K RT-PCR tests / day capacity across 60+ facilities; by end of Jun., a total of 130+ facilities had been certified, providing surge capacity of > 300K tests / day by running 24/7. With 5:1 sample pooling, Beijing has been comfortably testing > 800K individuals per day. Yes, such rapid expansion poses risks regarding quality control and assurance. On the other hand, RT-PCR tests is highly specific, with false positives almost exclusively from contaminated assays. It is also quite sensitive, with false negatives mostly from bad swabs. The fastest way to ramp up lab capacity is to certify more labs and ask all of them to expand, not relying just LabCorp and Quest. It has to be better than flying blind in a rapidly escalating outbreak. Getting results in 5 – 10 days renders the exercise meaningless in terms of surveillance and contact tracing, even diagnosis. Testing those with symptoms only would not allow one to get ahead of the outbreak, short of another lock down.

    As an aside, the WP article linked below gives a good example of the negative consequences of unbounded great power competition in the middle of a pandemic.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/02/china-bgi-california-testing/

    Over the past two decades BGI has grown into one of the top genetic sequencing and testing companies in the world, offering individualized sequencing services across the globe, including US clients. It is one of the private labs that first sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples sent by hospitals in Wuhan. The company set up one of their “Fire Eye” turn key lab solutions in Wuhan in early Feb., adding 10K RT-PCR tests / day capacity, representing 30 – 40% of the testing capacity in the city by late Feb., greatly relieving the testing crisis there. Yet, the state of California turned down offers to setup similar turn key labs from BGI. Reading from the comments from CA’s advisors, the primary concern appears to be that BGI is a Chinese company, rather than any specific risk. The former Chief Data Scientist in the Obama administration actually said one should avoid any action that benefits a technology competitor, while testing bottleneck is severely hampering the epidemic response. How will the US fare in great power competition with China if it continues to be hobbled by COVID-19?  The other advisor quoted may actually have a conflict of interest.

    There are ways to protect sensitive patient data even when using Chinese equipment, as Santa Clara County has determined, as well as European countries. If not BGI, why is CA and other US states not purchasing similar solutions from South Korea or Germany, though BGI will probably deploy more cheaply and more quickly. Of course, the current ~ 500K tests / day capacity in the US may be adequate, if there is not a large wave sweeping across the Sun Belt, dramatically driving up demand.

  10. 10.

    Sloane Ranger

    Death rate normal for time of year for the second week running here in the UK. My county, Northamptonshire, has had an average of 12 new cases a day for the past week. We, in Wellingborough, are lucky, only 2 new cases in the past week but Leicester is just up the road so vigilance is the watchword.

    With reference to the UK Recovery trials, its good to know we’re still capable of doing something right! Of course we wouldn’t have had so many trial subjects if the Government hadn’t fucked up to begin with!

  11. 11.

    Xentik

    @Ryan: I think you meant (51-20)/20 ~ 1.5, i.e. there are an additional ~150% cases that weren’t there before. It’s 250% of the original value, though, so it’s just a matter of how you frame it.

  12. 12.

    Amir Khalid

    From The Guardian‘s liveblog, on the rules for this year’s Haj.

    Saudi Arabia has issued guidelines for the 1,000 or so pilgrims that will be allowed to perform a limited hajj pilgrimage in Mecca later this month, AP reports.

    The pilgrims — residents of Saudi aged between 20 and 50 — will be only be able to drink holy water from the Zamzam well in Mecca that is packaged in plastic bottles, and pebbles for casting away evil that are usually picked up by pilgrims along hajj routes will be sterilized and bagged ahead of time.

    They will also have to bring their own prayer rugs, wear masks and maintain physical distance during prayers.

    Saudi pilgrims will be selected from among healthcare workers and security personnel who have recovered from Covid-19. All will be first time Hajjis. The government said their selection represents a token of appreciation for their role in providing care” during the pandemic.

    Saudi Arabia has one of the Middle East’s largest outbreaks of the virus, with infection rates rising by 3,000-4,000 cases daily. More than 213,000 people have contracted the virus in the kingdom so far, including 1,968 who have died.

    The pilgrims will have to quarantine before and after the hajj, and they will be tested for the coronavirus.

    The hajj is not only a once-in-a-lifetime requirement for Muslims but also a chance to wipe away past sins and connect with Muslims from different walks of life.

    Saudi Arabia dramatically scaled back the hajj due to concerns about overcrowding at the annual pilgrimage, which usually draws 2.5 million people. The crowds move, pray and stand in extremely close proximity, often squeezed shoulder-to-shoulder, as they carry out five days of rites around Mecca.

  13. 13.

    Amir Khalid

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    why is the US still relying on two giant lab companies to process the vast majority of the tests?

    My own suspicions have to do with Trump’s own financial interests, and/or those of a close associate or paymaster.

  14. 14.

    Ben Cisco

    Jefferson County AL:

    Jefferson County, the most populous county in Alabama and the home of Birmingham, added 1,200 coronavirus cases so far in July, or 200 cases per day, by far the most among any Alabama county.

    The Alabama Department of Public Health confirmed 189 new virus cases in the county on Monday as coronavirus hospitalizations in Birmingham and around the state hit all time highs.

    Mandatory mask law in place; we’ll see how that works out.

  15. 15.

    bluefoot

    @YY_Sima Qian: This is something I don’t understand either.  It made sense back in March or the beginning of April, but now we’re 6 months into this.  In CA alone, there is a huge lab capacity for RT-PCR at the universities, biopharma companies, and the various medical technology CROs.  The same is true in MA and other areas with large research centers.  Centers could have been certified and people trained and/or hired.  If the issue is reagents and kit manufacture, the government should have been mandating scale up from the get-go.

    But again, it comes down to the lack of coordinated federal response or government not listening to those with expertise.

  16. 16.

    Brachiator

    The holiday results are coming in for Los Angeles County. The yoots are joining in the pandemic fun. And again, it’s about community spread as much as it is about whether you open bars. From various briefings:

    In recent weeks, infections and hospitalizations have spiked among young people in the 18 to 40 age group across Los Angeles County. All the data points to a dramatic spread of the coronavirus within in the community, and health officials are bracing for a spike in hospitalizations and fatalities in the coming weeks….

    In the meantime, Los Angeles County reported another 48 deaths due to COVID-19 Monday, bringing the total number of deaths across the county to 3,534 cases as of Monday. County health officials also announced 1,584 new confirmed cases, bringing the county’s overall number to 116,570 since the beginning of the pandemic.

    Over the past seven days, the rate of people testing positive for the illness was 10%, up from about 8.4% last week and above the county’s overall rate of 9% throughout the pandemic, according to the Department of Public Health.

    Roughly 50% of all the new cases being confirmed in the county are among residents between the ages of 18-40. Back in April, residents in that age group represented about 10% of coronavirus patients in hospitals, but that figure is now up to about 25%, health officials said.Recognizing the just-completed Fourth of July weekend and the likelihood of people gathering together despite warnings to the contrary, public health director Barbara Ferrer said carelessness will only slow the process of reopening the economy….

    “There’s a significant increase in the percent of cases among 18- to 40-year-old residents,” Ferrer said. “… Almost 50% of new cases occur among young people and then, those younger people are spreading the infection to others.”

    She also pointed to a dramatic shift in hospitalized patients, a group that had originally been overwhelming aged 65 and older.”But there’s been quite a shift over the last few weeks, as hospitalizations for 18- to 40-year- olds and 41- to 64-year-olds have increased, and the percent of hospitalizations for the 65 or older group have now gone down,” she said.

    Looking to explain the shift, she pointed to data collected by USC researchers showing that the percentage of people who stay home and leave only for essential reasons has dropped dramatically from 86% in April to about 58% now. That has also led to higher percentages of residents coming into contact with people outside their own households. And with more businesses reopened, Ferrer noted that 43% of residents have a job that requires close contact with other people on a daily basis.

    “It’s clear that after months of quarantined, combined with the reopening of many sectors in the span of several weeks, we’ve had a lot of people disregard the very practices that allowed us to slow the spread,” Ferrer said. “And unfortunately, this cannot continue. Our inability to follow the most basic infection-control and distancing directives leads to serious illness and even the deaths of people we love and the deaths of those who are loved by others. And the evidence is overwhelmingly clear about the impact.

  18. 18.

    Miss Bianca

    So, today was supposed to be the day I visited my hairdresser for a haircut…first time in, what…five months? Properly masked, both of us, no wash, just cut…

    Then she calls me last night to tell me that we just got got two more positive tests for COVID in the county, including staff from the local Ace Hardware (where I used to work). Thing is, her co-worker at the salon also works at Ace, so she said, no haircuts today – everyone at Ace is getting tested, and she is, too.

    So, who needs a haircut anyway, am I right?

    And so it begins. Our county was getting pretty complacent, I think, because we had had such a low positive test count (only two before this week, so it’s now doubled). We’ll see where we are at after the unsanctioned July Fourth “protest” (which was really an unpermitted parade of assholes bellowing “FREEDUMB” – apparently all with the blessing of our sheriff and our county commissioners, who are also the Board of Health). My prediction is that we are now going to see a spike in cases about ten days after that little stunt.

    Oh, our first two cases were folks in their 60s. Second two cases are folks in their 20s. FWIW.

  19. 19.

    Brachiator

    @Miss Bianca:

    So, today was supposed to be the day I visited my hairdresser for a haircut…first time in, what…five months? Properly masked, both of us, no wash, just cut…

    Wow. It’s a good thing that you got the message about the positive tests before your appointment.

    I hope they get everything taken care of.

    Is there regular random testing of various businesses that have opened?

  20. 20.

    Miss Bianca

    @Brachiator:

    Is there regular random testing of various businesses that have opened?

    BWAH HA HA, are you kidding? Hell, our Public Health Director just quit last month because she realized that all the righty-whiteys she grew up with here, the ones she thought were her friends, weren’t her friends after all, unless friends routinely send death threats to others. She wasn’t even allowed to enforce the violations she personally witnessed. That we haven’t had a major outbreak yet, due to the recalcitrance of the population in general and the Amish in particular about taking precautions, getting tested, sheltering in place, etc, is a minor miracle, far as I’m concerned.

  21. 21.

    Robert Sneddon

    Scotland has reported two new cases confirmed by testing and one death in hospital from confirmed or suspected COVID-19. There are seven cases in intensive care, down one (probably the death that was reported today, sadly). A small cluster of infection in the Border region (about 23 linked cases) caused a short lockdown in the area over the weekend but that’s now been lifted as it looks like tracing contacts and quarantine/isolation of individuals has worked.

     

    Scotland is generally trailing England in opening up after lockdown with currently more restrictions imposed than our ten-times-larger-population neighbour but it looks like, fingers crossed, that we’ve got a solid lock on the spread of COVID-19 here. England’s numbers aren’t anywhere near as good with the numbers of new cases and deaths running significantly higher per capita than Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

  22. 22.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Everyone should keep in mind that a negative RT-PCR test result is just a snapshot in time. It just means the person did not have detectable amount of SARS-CoV-2 in the swabbed area at the time of testing (leaving aside for the moment that the result could be a false negative due to poor swabbing). It sure beats a positive result or not being tested, but there are limitations to its meaning. That is why people working in professions with high risk of exposure, or high contact rates (thus potential of being super spreaders themselves) should be tested regularly. That is also why a negative RT-PCR test result is only good for 7 days in China.

  23. 23.

    susanna

    Anne Laurie,

    You provide undeniable proof of what you write.

    Love the initial picture from “Aliens.”  How suitable for these times of premature  and optimistic pronouncements and actions for an unknown future and a prevalent alien invasion to a body.

  25. 25.

    Brachiator

    @Miss Bianca:

    BWAH HA HA, are you kidding? Hell, our Public Health Director just quit last month

    That’s unfortunate. The female Health director in Orange County California quit a while back because of pressure and death threats.

    The virus don’t care.

    Some people are just too damn stupid.

  26. 26.

    J R in WV

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    On the subject on testing system and its capacity in the US, why is the US still relying on two giant lab companies to process the vast majority of the tests?

    Because Trump wants to “slow down the testing, people. I don’t like the testing so much!” to keep his numbers down.

    Screw the people dying, or gonna die in the near future, he wants the numbers down so he might stand a chance of winning his election next November, nothing else matters to him right now.

    I thought you might have known this, but maybe you find it as hard to believe as we do! Incredible but true, Trump doesn’t care about people dying, as long as he can convince his electorate that it wasn’t his fault, even tho it clearly IS HIS FAULT!!!

     

    Thanks for sharing your experience in China with us. You show how a nation can beat this virus, unlike our country, led by a shameless fool.

  27. 27.

    J R in WV

    @D Gardner:

    are you in Ohio, as I am?

    She has remarked in the past that she is in rural Colorado, west of the Front range, one of the least populated places out there IIRC.

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