Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

The words do not have to be perfect.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

No one could have predicted…

“Squeaker” McCarthy

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

White supremacy is terrorism.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Sunday-Monday, August 9-10

COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Sunday-Monday, August 9-10

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As the White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows is responsible for coordinating the vast executive branch, including its coronavirus response. But in closed-door meetings, he has revealed his skepticism of the two physicians guiding the anti-pandemic effort, Deborah Birx and Anthony S. Fauci, routinely questioning their expertise, according to senior administration officials and other people briefed on the internal discussions.

Meadows no longer holds a daily 8 a.m. meeting that includes health professionals to discuss the raging pandemic. Instead, aides said, he huddles in the mornings with a half-dozen politically oriented aides — and when the virus comes up, their focus is more on how to convince the public that President Trump has the crisis under control, rather than on methodically planning ways to contain it.

During coronavirus meetings, Meadows has repeatedly questioned the scientific consensus that wearing masks helps contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, officials said. He has regularly raised with Fauci and others a range of issues on which he thinks Fauci has been wrong, and he personally monitors the infectious-disease expert’s media appearances. When he catches Fauci sounding out of sync with Trump, the chief of staff admonishes the doctor to “stay on message,” officials said — and he has impressed upon Fauci, Birx and other public health professionals that they should not opine on restrictions or make policy in the media.

In an interview Saturday, Meadows said he has been appropriately skeptical of information presented to him but disputed that he is anti-science…

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A warning about pulse oximeters:


Apparently the way they’re currently calibrated tends to overestimate oxygen rates in darker-skinned individuals:

… One such study still being reprinted from 1990 recounts data showing the pulse ox target used for white patients on ventilators, 92, often resulted in hypoxia for Black patients; for this patient group, a pulse ox reading of 95 corresponded to an arterial blood gas reading of 92…


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Reader Interactions

84Comments

  1. 1.

    NotMax

    U.S. blasts through the 5,000,000 case total, Brazil passes 3,000,000.

    U.S. deaths lapping at the shore of 165,000, Brazil tops 100,000.

    Total cases reported worldwide fast coming up on 20,000,000.

    And all of that is with the usual lag in reporting over weekends.

  2. 2.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s daily numbers. 11 new cases. Six cases from local infection: Five Malaysians, three from the Kurau cluster in Perak, one detected in screening upon admission at a private hospital in Melaka, one detected in pre-op screening in Johor; one non-Malaysian, detected in  workplace screening in Selangor. Five imported cases, all Malaysians, returning from Australia (three), Japan and Singapore. Cumulative reported total 9,094 cases.

    19 more patients recovered and were discharged, total 8,803 patients recovered or 96.8% of the cumulative reported total. Active and contagious cases in hospital declined to 166 patients; one patient is in ICU, but not on a respirator.

    No new deaths since 31 July. The total remains at 125 deaths, 1.37% of the cumulative reported total and 1.40% of resolved cases.

  3. 3.

    NotMax

    @Amir Khalid

    No slam on you (you’re stating what is reported), I continue to fail to see the purpose or any added value from separating Malaysians and non-Malaysians in what the government there is reporting.

    While the numbers have been (relatively) mild, if things should happen to trend one way the distinction could well serve to stoke xenophobia.

  4. 4.

    SFAW

    In an interview Saturday, Meadows said he has been appropriately skeptical of information presented to him but disputed that he is anti-science…

    Not-so-eagerly awaiting the “teach the controversy” equivalent from the other COVID “skeptics” (as opposed to calling them “deniers”) in this murderous maladministration. In a country with a rational electorate, this news (and other things similar) would cause the Murderer-in-Chief’s approval rating to drop another few points.

    Although I guess a country with a rational electorate would have (A) not elected him in the first place, (B) senators who convicted him during his impeachment, and/or (C) pegged his approval rating at around five percent awhile ago

    ETA: “Appropriately” skeptical, Meadows? Fucking moron asshole.

  5. 5.

    NotMax

    Meadows no longer holds a daily 8 a.m. meeting that includes health professionals to discuss the raging pandemic. Instead, aides said, he huddles in the mornings with a half-dozen politically oriented aides — and when the virus comes up, their focus is more on how to convince the public that President Trump has the crisis under control, rather than on methodically planning ways to contain it.

    “We’re throwing in the towel. But look! Have you ever seen such a big, beautiful, fluffy towel? Best towel ever!”

    One more time: From the beginning they’ve responded to this as a public relations crisis rather than a health crisis.

  6. 6.

    Amir Khalid

    @NotMax:

    The Health Ministry originally separated out non-Malaysians because it regards foreign workers as especially vulnerable, given their provided accommodations: crowded dormitories where the usual precautions are not so helpful or even practicable. A coronavirus-positive person is treated as a patient he regardless of nationality or immigration status.

  7. 7.

    lowtechcyclist

    My governor and Congresscritters will be hearing from me about the rapid tests. We need them, and we need them now. They’re something that might actually make a dent in the death rate between now and when we finally get a real President.

  9. 9.

    JoyceH

    Hey, is anyone else as discouraged and depressed as I am by this Sturgis insanity? “Could become a superspreader event”, says the news media. Come ON, a ‘superspreader’ is what they call a family reunion or church service that winds up infecting dozens of people. Seems to me that when you have a quarter of a million people, many of who are sure the pandemic is a hoax or exaggerated, all gathering maskless in one spot from every corner of the country to cram into bars and smoosh into crowds before going back to where they came from – ‘superspreader’ is too mild a term. Coronapocalypse, maybe?

    I’m seriously considering stockpiling supplies and locking myself in to my own property for six or eight weeks.

  10. 10.

    lowtechcyclist

    Meadows no longer holds a daily 8 a.m. meeting that includes health professionals to discuss the raging pandemic. Instead, aides said, he huddles in the mornings with a half-dozen politically oriented aides — and when the virus comes up, their focus is more on how to convince the public that President Trump has the crisis under control, rather than on methodically planning ways to contain it.

    Good reporting, I guess, but this really just adds some detail to what has been blatantly obvious since April.  This Administration isn’t going to do anything about this plague; it’s just going to try to manage the politics of it.  We knew that.

  13. 13.

    mrmoshpotato

    It’s been some time since I’ve said BoJo can go fuck himself.

    BoJo can go fuck himself.

  14. 14.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Yesterday, China reported 14 new domestic confirmed cases and 7 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all of them at Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region. 13 cases are in critical condition, and 22 in serious condition. There are currently 592 confirmed cases (589 in Ürumqi, 1 each at Kashgar,  Changji Prefecture and Xinjiang Construction Corps), and 123 asymptomatic cases (122 in Ürumqi, 1 in Changji Prefecture), plus 1 asymptomatic case exported to Shaoxing in Zhejiang Province. 47 confirmed cases recovered yesterday and were released from hospitals, 7 asymptomatic cases were released from medical quarantine. 2 serious cases have stabilized to moderate conditions. There are 16,947 close contacts under quarantine and medical observation.
    For the 4th consecutive day, Dalian in Liaoning Province did not report any new cases, confirmed or asymptomatic. 7 confirmed cases has recovered and was released from hospital, and 3 asymptomatic cases were also released from medical quarantine. 1 serious cases, 61 moderate cases, and 10 mild cases are currently in the hospital. The city continues to conduct mass screening of elevated risk individuals in hot spot areas, with daily RT-PCR tests numbering 60 – 110K individuals each day. 4 communities have been lowered to Low Risk areas, with lock downs lifted for residential compounds within all the Medium Risk areas.
    Yesterday, China reported 35 new imported confirmed cases, 24 imported asymptomatic cases, and 1 suspect case:

    • Shanghai Municipality – 18 confirmed cases, all Chinese national returning from the United Arab Emirates (15 on the same flight with lay over in Sri Lanka); 1 suspect case, information not released
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 3 confirmed case, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Saudi Arabia, 1 from the Philippines; 8 asymptomatic cases, 5 Chinese nationals returning from Saudi Arabia, 3 from the Philippines
    • Xi’an in Shaanxi Province – 3 confirmed cases, 2 are Chinese nationals returning from Singapore, 1 from Kazakhstan; 2 asymptomatic cases, both Chinese nationals returning from Kazakhstan
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 2 confirmed cases (1 was previously identified as asymptomatic) and 1 asymptomatic case, all Chinese nationals returning from the Philippines
    • Jinan in Shandong Province – 1 confirmed and 3 asymptomatic cases, all Chinese nationals returning from Kazakhstan
    • Rizhao Port in Shandong Province – 1 confirmed and 1 asymptomatic cases, both Filipino nationals off cargo ships
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 4 confirmed cases, 2 are Chinese nationals returning from Singapore (both previously identified as asymptomatic, 1 each from Egypt and Cambodia: 2 asymptomatic cases, both Chinese nationals returning from Egypt
    • Liaoning Province – 2 confirmed cases, no case information
    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Indonesia; 2 asymptomatic cases, Chinese nationals returning from Indonesia and South Korea
    • Lanzhou in Gansu Province – 3 asymptomatic cases, all Chinese nationals returning from Russia
    • Kunming in Yunnan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Indonesia
    • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Singapore
    • Chongqing Municipality – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Singapore

    Today, Hong Kong reported 69 new cases, 68 from local transmission, 22 of whom do not have clear source of transmission.

  15. 15.

    NotMax

    @Amir Khalid

    Obviously am not privy to local mores or custom, however from a distance find it an unproductive way of presenting the data to the general public.

  16. 16.

    Betty Cracker

    @JoyceH: We were talking about his yesterday. It’s insane and stupid and infuriating. Hard to see how it won’t result in a massive uptick in cases since, as you point out, these idiots will disperse to every corner of the country.

    Another thing that worries me: Trump-aligned governors have been cooking the books all along, but they’re getting more brazen about it, I guess because they’re getting away with it?

    One of the tweets above notes the testing rate in Florida has plummeted. For a few days last week, the governor suspended health department testing because of the hurricane, which didn’t even make landfall here. Even if it had, it wouldn’t have necessitated suspension of testing throughout the state. They’re treating testing as if it were a luxury.

  17. 17.

    Bruce K

    Greece just had its worst day since the pandemic started: 202 new cases reported on Sunday, August 9. Of course, there’s the problem of lagging indicators, and Greece has been tightening its health measures to some extent, but at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if they locked down again at the end of August. They’re caught between the devil and the deep blue sea – the economy’s deeply dependent on tourism, which locking down would affect horribly, but if the virus gets out of control, that’ll wreck the economy just as surely.

  18. 18.

    Jack Canuck

    Today’s Australian (meaning mainly Victorian) numbers:
    In Australia:
    Total cases 21, 397
    Current estimated active cases 8172
    Total deaths 313
    New cases in the last 24 hours 337
    Hospitalised 664

    In Victoria:
    Total cases 14, 957
    Current estimated active cases 7869
    Total deaths 228 (18 in the last 24 hours)
    New cases in the last 24 hours: 322
    In hospital 640 (of which 48 are in ICU)

    The daily case numbers have been dropping for the last few days, but the deaths are creeping up and will likely continue to do so for another week or ten days, as that’s a lagging indicator from the surge in cases in the last few weeks. We’re one week into Stage 4 restrictions in Melbourne, Stage 3 (less stringent) for the rest of the state.

  19. 19.

    WereBear

    @JoyceH: I keep sharing that video of cell phones leaving ONE Fort Lauderdale beach.

    And people say, “Oh. My God.”

    I realize few people are the informed political junkies who hang here, but they could at least listen to those of us who are.

    We’ve been right for 20 years, but no one listened.

  21. 21.

    SFAW

    @NotMax:

    “We’re throwing in the towel.”

    That implies they actually made a serious effort before giving up. I haven’t seen any evidence that they did, have you? [“Serious effort” vis-a-vis controlling the spread of the virus, etc., not re: “managing the optics” or whatever.]

  22. 22.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I am surprised that there are so many cases with unknown sources I’d transmission in Victoria, Australia. I thought Australia had developed contact tracing APPs with wide adoption?

  23. 23.

    NotMax

    @SFAW

    Not necessarily. One can throw in the towel before the first bell has ceased echoing off the walls of the arena.

    ;)

  24. 24.

    SFAW

    @NotMax:

    Not necessarily. One can throw in the towel before the first bell has ceased echoing off the walls of the arena.

    Maybe in Hawaii, but not in the real world.

  25. 25.

    WereBear

    @NotMax:

    when the virus comes up, their focus is more on how to convince the public that President Trump has the crisis under control, rather than on methodically planning ways to contain it.

     
    They are as clueless as their supporters about how the world works. And when it IS explained to them, it sounds suspiciously liberal.

  27. 27.

    Jack Canuck

    @YY_Sima Qian: The CovidSafe app has come in for a lot of criticism for lack of usefulness, though it does seem that’s it’s been useful in some cases recently to help identify potential contacts that weren’t found through regular contact tracing work. Whether that’s due to technical issues with the app or lack of wide enough adoption of it, I don’t know. The lack of known sources is the biggest concerning factor here in Victoria, and at the most basic level I suspect it comes down to the recent surge in cases making it extremely hard to do the tracing quickly and effectively enough. Fingers crossed that the cases keep dropping though. It’s moving in the right direction, but slower than any of us would like.

  29. 29.

    Soprano2

    Trump cared about the pandemic during the few days when the stock market was tanking. That’s it; otherwise,  just a PR problem to solve, nothing more.

  30. 30.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Betty Cracker:

    Saletan published an absolutely devastating tick-tock of how Trump’s self-interest, stupidity and incompetence doomed the U.S. response to the virus — The Trump Pandemic: A blow-by-blow account of how the president killed thousands of Americans. It’s extremely well sourced — perfect blueprint for a high-profile independent investigation commissioned by a future federal government.

    I’d have said it’s a more than sufficient summation of the evidence for impeachment over Trump’s dereliction of duty in the face of the coronavirus.  That’s (unfortunately, IMHO) not going to happen, but there wouldn’t have been a need for weeks of hearings: as Saletan shows, the public record is already sufficiently brutal.

    Once Trump is out of office, there certainly should be a thorough and complete investigation into what they knew and when, and how they responded, but more for completeness’ sake than anything else.  More than enough is already publicly known for history to pass judgment.

    There are plenty of things that really will need investigation so that we can know the true scope of what went on during this Administration – the self-enriching, the politicization of DOJ, who was involved in the use of Federal police/paramilitary to suppress political dissent, the list goes on.  And hell, the Bush Administration has never been subjected to the investigations it has needed to be on the receiving end of.  But the record of Trump’s dereliction of duty with respect to the coronavirus is in remarkably plain view.

  32. 32.

    mrmoshpotato

    @NotMax: “We’re throwing in the towel. But look! Have you ever seen such a big, beautiful, fluffy towel? Best towel ever!”

    They’re paper towels, and you know it!

  33. 33.

    lowtechcyclist

    @NotMax: Agreed, but there was a brief period in late March where Trump at least pretended to be doing stuff, and it fooled enough people that you can see it in the 538 graph of what percentage of Americans approve of Trump.

    Since then, the only people fooled by Trump have been those who want to be fooled.

  34. 34.

    Amir Khalid

    @JoyceH:

    Superduperspreader?

    if the Governor had any sense, she would have ordered Sturgis to cancel the motorbike rally.

  36. 36.

    mrmoshpotato

    @JoyceH:

    Hey, is anyone else as discouraged and depressed as I am by this Sturgis insanity? 

    Discouraged and depressed? No.

    Fucking pissed at the selfishness of a bunch of adults who should fucking know better?  Been there since November 9, 2016!

  37. 37.

    Betty Cracker

    @lowtechcyclist: Agreed. Gotta admit I’m becoming more pessimistic about the possibility of accountability lately. It may be too late for anything resembling accountability in America. About anything, ever.

    If wearing a damned mask to stop the spread of a deadly virus can be completely politicized, anything can. On the other hand, Trump’s COVID cock-up affects everyone, and he’s an asshole who most people dislike, so maybe a full airing of how he screwed the pooch and caused tens of thousands of needless deaths could break though. But probably not.

    Maybe it will become a dreary pro forma ritual in our declining empire: every time the White House switches from one party’s hands to the other, there’s an investigation.

  39. 39.

    satby

    So in the ignorant hellscape that is my local farmer’s market I was told (by a dedicated non-mask wearer) that one of our fellow vendors got infected with covid about 9 weeks ago and is still not well, though she never was sick enough to be hospitalized. She continues to have fatigue and shortness of breath on exertion, she was a very healthy woman in her early forties. Knowing this, her friend still just doesn’t wear a mask.

    I’m gobsmacked.

  40. 40.

    Kay

    @lowtechcyclist:

     the politicization of DOJ

    This should extend to career employees. Before anyone tells me “they’re just trying to keep their jobs!”, “their jobs” are serving the public. I don’t want them to keep their jobs if they failed to report or covered up illegality. They had and have a duty to report. If they didn’t do it “keeping their jobs” is not the right result for the public, who pay them.
    Was or is there Trump Administration political interference in the cases of the protesters the DOJ is prosecuting right now? If there was or is, those individuals can’t keep their jobs. We can’t keep them. They’re corrupted. There’s no “just that one time, when we were afraid of Donald Trump” exception. One and done.
    The jobs are prestigious and sought after and there’s no shortage of lawyers- we can find better quality hires.

  41. 41.

    mrmoshpotato

    @SFAW:

    That implies they actually made a serious effort before giving up.

    Assumes facts not in evidence. :)

    ETA – saying Dump mismanaged combatting the virus is also incorrect.  They didn’t manage combatting the virus.

  43. 43.

    Kay

    This is not inspiring, but if I were running “accountability” efforts post Trump I would focus solely on the corruption. It’s the easiest to prove and might overcome what seems to be an organizational and cultural risk aversion to investigating and prosecuting wealthy and powerful people in our government.

    I’m afraid any of the broader/loftier efforts are going to fall into the usual “mistakes were made” excuse pile. The corruption of Trump family members and their sleazy employees would keep them plenty busy. The corruption is really a problem. This level is nation-destroying. It has to be checked.

  45. 45.

    SFAW

    @mrmoshpotato:

    So it looks like you’re in complete agreement with me

    ETA: Apropos of nothing in particular: in some parts of the northeast, “potato” is sometimes pronounced as “pitayta” or “bidayta.” So it looks like you get your mosh pit after all?

    Yes, I’m weird. What of it?

  48. 48.

    Betty Cracker

    @mrmoshpotato: Can’t tell if you’re not joking or not, so I’ll give a straight answer: I used it in the journalistic sense, i.e., to indicate a chronological account, rather than to reference a video asset on TikTok, the social media platform.

  51. 51.

    prostratedragon

    98,745 bottles of beer on the wall, 98,745 bottles of be-e-er …

    (approximately 75 seconds per verse)

    I’m going to get together with an artist friend this week to start sending out postcards while I sing.

  54. 54.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Amir Khalid: I can’t wait until President Trump tries to cancel Thanksgiving which is basically Sturgis-on-steroids — tens of millions of Americans will travel widely to visit with distant family members. They definitely won’t wear masks while they’re visiting and the old folks will be sharing food and air with the kids who have been in school for months spreading the plague to all and sundry. Expect a big uptick in hospitalisations and deaths in early December, guys.

     

    Scotland COVID-19 news — no new confirmed-case deaths reported, 29 new confirmed cases with 18 of those cases being in the Grampian region, the source of an outbreak last week resulting in the city of Aberdeen going into lockdown while test and trace is implemented. The test confirmation rate is 0.8%. The usual caveat applies, Monday’s data is from weekend reporting. Some health service offices are closed over the weekend and some reports may be delayed.

     

    The plans to open Scottish schools starting tomorrow seem to be going ahead. There’s been a lot of flack over the grades given at the end of the previous school year since there were no exams per se, just grade estimates by schools and teachers which were further adjusted by the exam boards. The government is backtracking on some of the grades issued (which determine university acceptance and other further education matters).

  55. 55.

    mrmoshpotato

    @SFAW:

    Apropos of nothing in particular: in some parts of the northeast, “potato” is sometimes pronounced as “pitayta” or “bidayta.” So it looks like you get your mosh pit after all? 

    I’ve always had my mosh pit.  Thank you very much! :)

    Oh to be able to go to concerts again…

  58. 58.

    NotMax

    @satby

    One definition in Webster’s Third International Dictionary defines ‘Hoosier’ as “an awkward, unhandy or unskilled person, especially an ignorant rustic.” Source

    ;)

  63. 63.

    Another Scott

    Thanks for the video of improving the fit of paper masks.  We have a couple of packages of them and they seemed worthless to me because of the poor fit.  I’ll have to try the side knot technique.

    Stay safe, everyone.  We still have a long slog ahead.

    Cheers,

    Scott.

  64. 64.

    Amir Khalid

    @satby:

    It’s not your gob that needs to be smacked, but the gob of that woman who won’t mask up even after seeing her friend get sick.

  68. 68.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    From the WP article

    “He’s (Trump) just not oriented towards things that even in the short term look like they’re involving something that’s hard or negative or that involves sacrifice or pain,” a former senior administration official explained. “He is always anxious to get to a place of touting achievements and being the messenger for good news.”

    It’s amazing how Trump turns out to be more useless than one already thought.

  70. 70.

    Another Scott

    @Amir Khalid: When we ordered ours many months ago, they were something like $1 each and took a couple of months.  Now it looks like packs of 50 are going for $5-15+ on Amazon.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  72. 72.

    Sloane Ranger

    @Amir Khalid: In the Uk I’ve seen them advertised on Amazon for between £17.99 – £23.99. Delivery within about a week (depending on vendor).

    I’m going to be buying some soon. I bought 20 for a lot more and they took over a month to get here from China and I’m getting low. Of course, i have my washable ones too.

  74. 74.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Obvious Russian Troll: Trump will be President until Jan 20th 2021 regardless of the outcome of the election. He needs to stop Thanksgiving happening this year to prevent the mass deaths and overwhelming disease outbreaks it will engender in the weeks following. Maybe he can do it with an Executive Order? After all Thanksgiving is not in the Constitution, it’s not a protected event.

  75. 75.

    Carlo

    IMO the real superspreader news in this morning’s collection (an essential daily for me, thanks Annie Laurie) is not Sturgis. It’s the North Paulding HS in GA.

    Remember how flu season gets going every fall a week or so after school starts, when kids incubate pathogens, then share them with teachers and families? That’s what’s about to happen with COVID-19 in states that go for in-person learning, particularly those where mask-wearing is viewed as an “unenforceable personal choice”. All those Sun Belt states that seem to have bent their new-case curves in the past two weeks are about to learn what “exponential growth” means. In about a week.

    The infuriating thing to me is that a HS principal could assert, with a straight face, that he can’t enforce mask-wearing. Dress code, sure, that’s different, some outfit might offend someone, but preventing transmission of a fatal disease doesn’t rise to the same threshold. How are such militantly ignorant, scientifically illiterate, low-cognition sociopathic yahoos allowed to become educators? It’s a rhetorical question, I know…

  76. 76.

    Obvious Russian Troll

    @Robert Sneddon: Sure, you know that, and I know that, and every regular reader of this blog knows that, but we’re talking about Trump here. What Trump should do and what Trump actually does are two entirely different things.

    Trump has been trying to do as little as possible since March. The odds that he actually takes aggressive measures like cancelling Thanksgiving after the election are the same as my odds of winning the lottery (and I haven’t bought a ticket in years). After the election, win or lose, it’s not going to matter as much to him.

    The governors of some of the individual states will do something about Thanksgiving. Other governors won’t. It’s going to be a shitshow.

  77. 77.

    tokyokie

    @SFAW: We’ve thrown in the towel all right. But instead of doing it after being pummeled for several rounds, we did so at the weigh-in.

  78. 78.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Speaking of Thanksgiving, there is an obvious reason the Chinese central and provincial governments quickly ordered lock downs of varying degrees across the country right before Chinese New Year. Most of you are probably aware that it is the largest human migration on the planet, but most of you may not know some of the nuanced patterns.

    In a way, it was “fortuitous” that COVID-19 exploded in Wuhan right before CNY. Schools and universities were already closed for winter break, and many businesses and shops and factories were closed as workers and managers and owners started to go back to their home towns. While 5 million people left Wuhan before the cordon sanitaire, the vast majority of them went home in the rest of the Hubei Province, which is why the whole Hubei Province was hit so hard. Hubei is a major exporter of labor to other provinces, especially the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong, but right before CNY the migration pattern is going from the industrial zones and mega cities on the coast to Hubei.

    Total lock down had to be implemented even in locations with relatively few cases (like rural villages) because Chinese tradition dictates that one is supposed to visit all of the extended families in both sides, as well as family friends, over the holiday period. The massive human movement is not just inter-region, but also intra-region at each locality. Wuhan and Hubei, and every region in China, would have had it much worse without the strict lock downs.

    If the outbreak had blew up in Wuhan after CNY, with schools back in session and all businesses open, and the tens of millions of migrant labor going from Hubei to the coast, Wuhan and Hubei would have easily reached Lombardia in Mar. or NYC in Apr. levels, likely worse, and Chinese provinces could have been quickly overwhelmed, too.

    Also, if the outbreaks had started in the Pearl River Delta, the dense mega cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong, and the packed factory dormitories of Dongguan, Zhongshan and Jiangmen, COVID-19 would have spread to all of China and Asia and the world much more quickly. Chinese provinces and the likes of Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, South Korea and Japan would have faced much more challenging situations. Then again, with their painful SARS experience, authorities in Guangdong probably would not have been as complacent as the ones in Hubei. Hubei was not touched by SARS in 2003.

    I shudder at the thought of Thanksgiving with still active and widespread COVID-19 outbreaks throughout the US. The American experience with COVID-19 will be immortalized in text books (not just pertaining to epidemiology and public health policy) for decades and possibly centuries.

  82. 82.

    Sloane Ranger

    Robert Sneddon has already reported the Scottish figures so I’ll just give the overall rates for the UK and those for the remaining 3 Home Countries.

    New cases – UK overall 816. (England 699; Wales 12; NI 0). Total cases in the UK 311,641.

    Deaths today 21 (all in England). Total number of deaths in the UK 46,574.

    Like the Scottish Government, the UK is hellbent on a full return to in-person school attendance when the new school year starts in late August/early September. They have said they will re-close pubs and non essential shops rather than schools if cases begin to rise. We’ll have to wait and see how things turn out but, like in the US, our politicians seem to think schools consist solely of kids, without an adult in sight.

    Wellingborough, where I live, has had enhanced restrictions imposed because of a slow but steady rise in cases, the cause of which they can’t identify. IMO, someone just needs to go to the local Shopping Centre and see the number of people now disregarding the mask mandate to get an idea.

  84. 84.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Sloane Ranger: Beware of making masks and mask-wearing the be-all and end-all of the COVID-19 situation. Sure they’ll help reduce infection and transmission but the real problem is people remaining close to other people, random mixing of different populations in poorly-ventilated places for long periods of time — pubs, clubs, schools, businesses, restaurants etc. and to a lesser extent shops. The original lockdown worked because people stayed at home. That isn’t happening now.

     

    Masks are a help and a highly-visible virtue signalling flag but please don’t assume they work perfectly — the infection rate increase in places like Japan and China where they were common and now ubiquitous proves that.

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