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You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Sunday Evening Open Thread: Donnie Don’t Know Much

Sunday Evening Open Thread: Donnie Don’t Know Much

by Anne Laurie|  August 16, 20205:31 pm| 98 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, Open Threads, Trumpery, Our Failed Media Experiment

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OPINION | JOHN DEERING CARTOON: Don't know much https://t.co/QBFwo6CwkX

— AR Democrat-Gazette (@ArkansasOnline) August 13, 2020

And the Media Village Idiots love him for that…

Some reporters are worried about Trump losing bc of how it will affect them professionally. They fear they don't have the same access to Biden. It's wild but that's the business. Access is why so many hold punches. More respect to @Yamiche @svdate @weijia @PaulaReidCBS others.

— Wajahat "Wears a Mask Because of a Pandemic" Ali (@WajahatAli) August 15, 2020

How many small mercies has Trump been shown over the years because he will work the phone every day giving juicy "high level White House source" quotes? https://t.co/dRTOYXjjbx

— Schooley (@Rschooley) August 15, 2020

That is just wrong. Jabba was a competent businessman. https://t.co/rgNVeJEmRX

— Jeff Fecke (@jkfecke) August 15, 2020

Happy thought, if true:

I don't know if anyone noticed, but trump has mostly stopped campaigning. He's spending all of his time trying to sabotage the vote and complaining about the results before they happen. The internals must be brutal.

— Jerry ?? (@js_edit) August 15, 2020

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Previous Post: «spy v. spy flyouts The Bad Effects of One Man’s Good Intentions: Why The US Postal Service’s Board of Governors Is Packed With Senator McConnell Approved Appointees of the President
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Reader Interactions

98Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 5:35 pm

    The problem the media has is that they’ve burned so many bridges with Dems that they’re stuck with the GOP.

  2. 2.

    Llelldorin

    August 16, 2020 at 5:36 pm

    Both hilariously and worryingly, he’s doing a bit better now that he’s stopped campaigning. Apparently having Trump on the trail is a net negtive in 2020.

  3. 3.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    August 16, 2020 at 5:38 pm

    @Llelldorin: Not to worry, his biggest campaign event is the week after next, the Republican National Convention.

  4. 4.

    artem1s

    August 16, 2020 at 5:42 pm

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/robert-trump-died-brother-of-president-cause-of-death-not-released-2020-08-15/
    Robert Trump has died

  5. 5.

    NotMax

    August 16, 2020 at 5:42 pm

    @Llelldorin

    now that he’s stopped campaigning

    Only so many hours in a day. Those mushy love notes to Kim don’t write themselves, don’tcha know.

    //

  6. 6.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    August 16, 2020 at 5:44 pm

    I don’t know if anyone noticed, but trump has mostly stopped campaigning. He’s spending all of his time trying to sabotage the vote and complaining about the results before they happen. The internals must be brutal.

    the other thing I have noticed is the utter lack of any mention of a Trump campaign get out the vote effort. Considering the kind of aversion to hard work the Trump admin has shown so far my bet is there is none.

  7. 7.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 5:45 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: 

    He didn’t really have one in 2016 other than hate mongering, and it was sufficient.

  8. 8.

    Luther Siler

    August 16, 2020 at 5:46 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: 

    I remember saying the words “He has no ground game at all, and people aren’t taking that seriously enough” in 2016. Just saying.

  9. 9.

    Kent

    August 16, 2020 at 5:47 pm

    They really aren’t even trying to campaign. Go to the Trump 2020 Campaign web site and there is not one single proposal for anything he wants to do for a second term. Nothing. They don’t even have a section for it. “Vote for Trump in 2020 because he wants to……..” They have nothing. I actually ask my MAGA relatives on FB why vote for Trump in 2020 and they don’t have answers except for the trite campaign bullshit.

    It’s just weird.  Back in 2016 they at least had answers.  Build the Wall, Repeal and Replace.  Shit like that.  Today they have nothing.

  10. 10.

    Lapassionara

    August 16, 2020 at 5:48 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Widely reported not to have one in 2016 either, and in fact, I recall one Clinton campaign person saying that the Clinton campaign had turned out Trump voters.

  11. 11.

    MattF

    August 16, 2020 at 5:50 pm

    Somewhat OT. Very tired of Trump. Here’s a socially-distanced version of a classic. Via Daring Fireball, if you’re a 2001 fan, this is for you.

  12. 12.

    Ryan

    August 16, 2020 at 5:53 pm

    @Kent: Isn’t the caravan coming?  Also too, middle class tax cuts?

  13. 13.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    August 16, 2020 at 5:53 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: He’s got the boaters, who else does he need?

  14. 14.

    piratedan

    August 16, 2020 at 5:53 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: getting the idea that Trump has a core set of voters that he can count on no matter what. His core deplorables. The main thing is to ensure that their votes are counted, hoping that COVID hasn’t killed too many of them off.

    Now their (the GOP) work/effort has shifted to make sure that everyone else is fucked over, removing mailboxes, evictions, voter suppression, fewer poling stations and working the media to put the doubt out there and what’s not mentioned, likely outside logistical assistance; be it in not counting votes, telling people when to stop counting, altering votes or simply lying.

    If the media continues to lend credence to the illegal shit that is being done, without noting that it is, actually illegal; then we can look forward to this potentially being a constitutional crisis. With the efforts of the last four years of stacking the judiciary, for all we know, this may have been the long range hail-mary option for them all along.

  15. 15.

    HRA

    August 16, 2020 at 5:53 pm

    Currently on CNN online:
    Voters in North Carolina have received absentee ballot request forms in the mail with Trump’s face on them

  16. 16.

    featheredsprite

    August 16, 2020 at 5:56 pm

    Maybe Tulsa punctured Trump’s bubble.

  17. 17.

    FelonyGovt

    August 16, 2020 at 6:01 pm

    @HRA: Tell you what, that would spur me on to vote- against him- even more.

  18. 18.

    Patricia Kayden

    August 16, 2020 at 6:01 pm

    YouGov Poll Biden Support:Pre-Kamala (8/9-11): 18-29: 58%Female: 51%Black: 82%Hispanic: 52% Post-Kamala (8/12-14): 18-29: 62% (+4%)Female: 56% (+5%)Black: 90% (+8%)Hispanic: 71% (+19%)https://t.co/31OKqarLxp pic.twitter.com/0nD3vAfblU— chris evans (@notcapnamerica) August 16, 2020

  19. 19.

    Carolina Dave

    August 16, 2020 at 6:03 pm

    Ugh.

    A double whammy for my town of Greensboro, first of all Louis DeJoy lives here. We did have a nice protest outside his (empty) home yesterday with another protest at his DC residence.

    Now, a Trump associate is about to win our PGA event. In front of no spectators, of course.

    The weather finally broke towards fall, so there’s that. Still not happy about Sunday’s events.

  20. 20.

    RSA

    August 16, 2020 at 6:04 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    the other thing I have noticed is the utter lack of any mention of a Trump campaign get out the vote effort.

    This New York Magazine article is heartening.

    “What event?,” Kevin Tatulyan, an Allegheny County Republican official, asked as he waved me into the room.

    “What event?,” Dallas McClintock, the regional Trump-Pence field director, asked.

    One of the women, with lilac-colored hair, whipped her head toward McClintock.

    “It’s your email here!” she told him, pointing to the advertisement I’d mentioned.

    “My email?,” McClintock said in disbelief.

    “Yeah!” she said.

    He scrunched up his face.

    For the next several minutes, the staffers tried to sort out how, with fewer than 100 days until the election, they had unknowingly advertised official campaign events that didn’t exist to potential campaign volunteers in the most important swing state in the country.

    They squinted at their screens and asked questions.

    “What time?”

    “Where did you learn about it?”

    “What was the address?”

    The second event had been listed with an apparent misspelling in the street name, a detail that prompted the girl with the lilac hair to laugh.

    “Sounds right,” she said dryly.

    “I’m sorry!” the other woman said, and she seemed to mean it. “If you want to leave us your card, we can make sure to invite you to our events in the future!”

    I hope this is representative.

  21. 21.

    Ladyraxterinok

    August 16, 2020 at 6:04 pm

    Blog joemygod reports on August 16 that the Pentagon plans to cut $2.2 billion from military health care!?!?

    Trump administration simply hates everyone!

  22. 22.

    Feathers

    August 16, 2020 at 6:08 pm

    @Llelldorin: If they held events or did GOTV, it would just mean less money to steal. Ads can be placed in a manner that facilitates thievery.

  23. 23.

    Falling Diphthong

    August 16, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    Jerry has a point. He’s down to campaigning at whatever golf course he plays at, to whoever happens to be hanging around the clubhouse.

    Did he give up the daily covid briefings yet?

  24. 24.

    HRA

    August 16, 2020 at 6:14 pm

    @FelonyGovt: I am from NY. I would never vote for him or anyone connected to him.

    There is a short message with his photo which is in my opinion campaigning for their vote.

  25. 25.

    mrmoshpotato

    August 16, 2020 at 6:23 pm

    Some reporters are worried about Trump losing bc of how it will affect them professionally

    Let’s all say it loud and proud so efg can hear!

    FUCK ‘EM!

  26. 26.

    Jay

    August 16, 2020 at 6:24 pm

    APRIL 2, 2020
    “When can we really rest?”
    More migrants than ever are crossing the Colombia-Panama border to reach the U.S. Five days inside the Darién Gap, one of the most dangerous journeys in the world.
    By Nadja Drost
    Photographs by Carlos Villalón, Bruno Federico, and Lisette Poole

    https://story.californiasunday.com/darien-gap-migration

  27. 27.

    James E Powell

    August 16, 2020 at 6:25 pm

    @Patricia Kayden:

    One thing in that poll that is surprising. It shows “Independents” going for Trump over Biden, 45-40.

    Is this because Republicans are identifying themselves as “Independents”?

  28. 28.

    FelonyGovt

    August 16, 2020 at 6:26 pm

    @HRA: Oh, I know. I’m from NY too and have also hated him for many years. And it’s completely obnoxious that what should be a nonpartisan mailing turns into a campaign piece for him.

  29. 29.

    mrmoshpotato

    August 16, 2020 at 6:27 pm

    He’s spending all of his time trying to sabotage the vote and complaining about the results before they happen.

    Not really a happy thought.  I’ll report in the late night thread if the mailbox down the street is still there when I take my late wander around the ‘hood.

  30. 30.

    James E Powell

    August 16, 2020 at 6:29 pm

    Some reporters are worried about Trump losing bc of how it will affect them professionally. They fear they don’t have the same access to Biden.

    The press/media and most reporters have been promoting and protecting Trump since he came down the escalator. Many of the majors – NYT – are still doing it. Did they give Mary Trump’s or Michael Cohen’s book the same enthusiastic treatment as Clinton Cash?

    And it isn’t that they have some special access to Trump. It’s that he is a constant producer of hot content. They don’t have to work. Just what Trump says, what people say about what Trump says, and what Trump says about those people. Over and over and over and over.

  31. 31.

    Kent

    August 16, 2020 at 6:29 pm

    @Ryan:@Kent: Isn’t the caravan coming?  Also too, middle class tax cuts?

    Caravans are so 2018.  The Mexican border is currently closed.   By the MEXICANS who don’t wan our covid-infested tourists.

  32. 32.

    Mike in NC

    August 16, 2020 at 6:30 pm

    @HRA: Voters in North Carolina have received absentee ballot request forms in the mail with Trump’s face on them

    I went to the website that has the NC Absentee Ballot Application, filled out two forms for my wife and I, then mailed them in to the Board of Electors. A week later we got the same forms in the mail from some organization whose name I forget. Confused, I phoned the BoE and they confirmed our names were in the system. It appears that well-meaning groups like the League of Women Voters are encouraging people to submit these forms. I asked if all registered voters were getting these forms in the mail and the BoE representative said they were not.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    August 16, 2020 at 6:30 pm

    Don’t be hoodwinked by Trump’s UAE-Israel “peace deal”: It’s a sham
    This power play by UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed is a boon for Trump and Netanyahu. It won’t bring real peace

    https://www.salon.com/2020/08/15/dont-be-hoodwinked-by-trumps-uae-israel-peace-deal-its-a-sham/

  34. 34.

    HalfAssedHomesteader

    August 16, 2020 at 6:31 pm

    @Kent: Timothy Snyder addresses that here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eghl19elKk8

    Fascists direct all their energy into hating “them”. There’s no room for a future to even think about.

  35. 35.

    Brachiator

    August 16, 2020 at 6:32 pm

    Some reporters are worried about Trump losing bc of how it will affect them professionally. They fear they don’t have the same access to Biden. It’s wild but that’s the business. Access is why so many hold punches.

    Sad. Trump does everything he can to demean and undermine the press, and their response is to accept being kicked and take comfort in the fact that at least they still have access.

    Also, they deliberately downplay the extent to which Trump is stumbling deeper into autocracy. The media, Republican leadership, and maybe a lot of ordinary people think that they will be all right even under a full on dictatorship.

    I don’t know if anyone noticed, but trump has mostly stopped campaigning. He’s spending all of his time trying to sabotage the vote and complaining about the results before they happen. The internals must be brutal.

    Trump may be borderline insane. He believes that he won 2016 by a landslide and that he was given a perpetual mandate.

    But hell, he didn’t really campaign effectively in 2016. And for 2020, he believes that the GOP and Putin will do whatever is necessary to suppress the vote and steal the election for him.

     

    END

  36. 36.

    Kent

    August 16, 2020 at 6:33 pm

    @James E Powell:

    The press/media and most reporters have been promoting and protecting Trump since he came down the escalator. Many of the majors – NYT – are still doing it. Did they give Mary Trump’s or Michael Cohen’s book the same enthusiastic treatment as Clinton Cash?

    And it isn’t that they have some special access to Trump. It’s that he is a constant producer of hot content. They don’t have to work. Just what Trump says, what people say about what Trump says, and what Trump says about those people. Over and over and over and over.

    It’s not about access.  Biden could be even more open to the press than Trump and the coverage wouldn’t change.   Because with Biden they would actually have to hurt their fucking little brains thinking about policy.  Trump is just more fun.  With Trump, all they have to do is follow Trump’s twitter feed and the can still make happy hour at their local watering holes.  Easiest job ever.

    It’s the McCain tire swing all over again.

  37. 37.

    Jay

    August 16, 2020 at 6:34 pm

    @Kent:

    a Federal Judge in spring tossed the First Safe Nation agreement, as the US is no longer a safe place for political refugees.

    So they get to come to Canada.

  38. 38.

    Kristine

    August 16, 2020 at 6:34 pm

    @James E Powell:

    Is this because Republicans are identifying themselves as “Independents”?

    I’ve always assumed that Independents were Republicans who were ashamed to admit it.

  39. 39.

    debbie

    August 16, 2020 at 6:37 pm

    @HRA:

    The energy I found to rip up his stimulus check cover letter was astonishing.

  40. 40.

    Kent

    August 16, 2020 at 6:37 pm

    @James E Powell:

    @Patricia Kayden:

    One thing in that poll that is surprising. It shows “Independents” going for Trump over Biden, 45-40.

    Is this because Republicans are identifying themselves as “Independents”?

    Yes, I think so.  All the independents that I know are actually conservative white professional types who are reliable GOP voters but like to pose as “independents” because they think it makes them seem more thoughtful or analytical or something.   It’s like how no one really admits to being a racist.

  41. 41.

    debbie

    August 16, 2020 at 6:39 pm

    @FelonyGovt:

    Maybe it’s not an official mailing. Would Cuomo let something like that go out?

  42. 42.

    Mai naem mobile

    August 16, 2020 at 6:40 pm

    @Kent: its not just the McCain swing. Why did the Post Office story not blow up till the past few days? I find it hard to believe that nobody was reaching out to reporters earlier. They are just too busy covering Donny’s Distraction of the Day. I am betting we are going to find a bunch of really important collateral damage done by Donny once he’s out which was never covered by Haberman et al.

  43. 43.

    Brachiator

    August 16, 2020 at 6:41 pm

    @James E Powell:

    One thing in that poll that is surprising. It shows “Independents” going for Trump over Biden, 45-40.

    That is surprising. I wonder how this breaks down by state. I will try to look at any details later.

    Is this because Republicans are identifying themselves as “Independents”?

    Don’t think so.

  44. 44.

    Kristine

    August 16, 2020 at 6:41 pm

    @debbie: I burned mine.

  45. 45.

    Nicole

    August 16, 2020 at 6:45 pm

    @Kent:

    All the independents that I know are actually conservative white professional types who are reliable GOP voters but like to pose as “independents” because they think it makes them seem more thoughtful or analytical or something.

    Yeah, this.

  46. 46.

    Kay

    August 16, 2020 at 6:48 pm

    This is from a 2 part story on QAnon. McConnell is the grifter who runs the youtube account:

    While staying with McConnell, Ramos heard McConnell talking in what Ramos called “hokey codenames” to a network of associates around the country and in the United Kingdom. A silver-haired Wilson appeared on one of McConnell’s livestreams, where he told McConnell he was carrying a 9mm pistol.
    While at a store in Plum City, Abcug and Ramos received a call from McConnell warning them that law enforcement officials had shown up at his house. Ramos speculated the call might have just been a scheme by McConnell to get them to leave his house, but they fled anyway.

    guffaw

  47. 47.

    HumboldtBlue

    August 16, 2020 at 6:50 pm

    The fact that four counties in Iowa are in desperate shape almost a week after a hugely destructive derecho is not the lead news story is all we need to know about 2020.

    This is absurd and heartbreaking.

    @Nicole: @Kent:

    That describes every “independent” I know.

  48. 48.

    Chyron HR

    August 16, 2020 at 6:51 pm

    @artem1s:

    president-cause-of-death

    Join the club, Bob.

  49. 49.

    piratedan

    August 16, 2020 at 6:51 pm

    @Mai naem mobile: the scary part is, most of what is/has been covered is the shit that they’ve openly admitted to, what kind of heinous shit has gone on that they’re not proud of?

  50. 50.

    catclub

    August 16, 2020 at 6:51 pm

    He’s spending all of his time trying to sabotage the vote and complaining about the results before they happen. The internals must be brutal.

     

    Maybe they are accurate: every time he campaigns they get worse, and Trump can actually notice that.

    he would be scary  if he could learn and change course.

  51. 51.

    Patricia Kayden

    August 16, 2020 at 6:52 pm

    Woohoo

    Joe Biden is the first challenger since at least 1940 to head into the conventions with over 50% support against an incumbent president. That is, Biden heads into the conventions in a historically strong position.https://t.co/wZfVtAICP2— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 16, 2020

  52. 52.

    piratedan

    August 16, 2020 at 6:53 pm

    just heard/read what i thought was an apt description of Q-anon – Trailer Park Scientology…..

  53. 53.

    debbie

    August 16, 2020 at 6:53 pm

    @Kristine:

    Effective, but just not physical enough for me.

  54. 54.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 6:54 pm

    @Patricia Kayden:

    Good.

    Just remember, the better we do, the nastier they’ll get.  Be prepared.

  55. 55.

    Gravenstone

    August 16, 2020 at 6:54 pm

    @HRA: Well isn’t that subtle?

    /paraphrasing Church Lady

  56. 56.

    debbie

    August 16, 2020 at 6:54 pm

    @Patricia Kayden:

    Nice analogy to equate Trump with Hoover.

  57. 57.

    Calouste

    August 16, 2020 at 6:55 pm

    @Carolina Dave: Are there any professional male golfers who aren’t shitgibbon associates, or at least supporters?

  58. 58.

    catclub

    August 16, 2020 at 6:55 pm

    @Mai naem mobile: . I am betting we are going to find a bunch of really important collateral damage done by Donny once he’s out which was never covered by Haberman et al.

     

    Based on Michael Lewis’s Fifth Risk book. I am betting science in NASA, Commerce and USGS have been ruined for decades.  Things like stopping long-term monitoring programs.

  59. 59.

    Brachiator

    August 16, 2020 at 6:56 pm

    @Kent:

    Is this because Republicans are identifying themselves as “Independents”?

    Yes, I think so.  All the independents that I know are actually conservative white professional types who are reliable GOP voters but like to pose as “independents” because they think it makes them seem more thoughtful or analytical or something.   It’s like how no one really admits to being a racist.

    Depends on the region. That Independent voters are Republicans in disguise is one of the myths that a lot of Balloon Juice folk just cannot let go of.

    In California there are more registered Independents than there are Republicans. However, in most elections, they lean towards the Democrats.

    But here is where you are on to something. In some states, a significant fraction of these people are conservatives who had stopped voting at all until Trump came along. They were underrepresented in some polls because traditional analysis did not consider them to be likely voters.

  60. 60.

    mrmoshpotato

    August 16, 2020 at 6:57 pm

    @MattF: Haha!  That’s very good!  Thanks for posting it.

  61. 61.

    James E Powell

    August 16, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    @Kent:

    I have quite a few tote-bagger friends who ID as independent because political parties are just so partisan and besides “both sides” and how can one adopt a stance of moral superiority if one is aligned with “the system” and so on.

  62. 62.

    mrmoshpotato

    August 16, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: Steamboat captains!  I mean, they want to drag us back to the 50’s – 1850’s!

  63. 63.

    HumboldtBlue

    August 16, 2020 at 7:02 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    This mall goes back to Parscale who simply sucked money from the Trumps.

    He built no campaign infrastructure.

  64. 64.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 7:03 pm

    @James E Powell:

    Or it’s a bad poll.

  65. 65.

    Patricia Kayden

    August 16, 2020 at 7:03 pm

    @Kent:

    They have nothing but hate but hate is all they need. It’s scary to think that Trump could squeak out another electoral college win if our side doesn’t come out in droves.

  66. 66.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 7:04 pm

    @Patricia Kayden:

    FDR was down going into the 1940 election?

  67. 67.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 7:06 pm

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: Caddies.

  68. 68.

    evodevo

    August 16, 2020 at 7:08 pm

    @Kent:  Yes. I used to get that crap from a couple of fundie co-workers, who would smugly say “I vote for the person, not the party.” turns out neither one was even registered to vote at that particular time lol. They just don’t want to admit that they are uninformed at best…

  69. 69.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 7:13 pm

    @James E Powell:

    It’s nice to know the problem isn’t limited to the left, I guess.

  70. 70.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    August 16, 2020 at 7:13 pm

    @Kent:  @Nicole:  probably a lot of fairly recent ex-Republicans, too, because of trump, but not quite never-trump, gotta keep those sweet sweet tax cuts

  71. 71.

    Patricia Kayden

    August 16, 2020 at 7:15 pm

    @Jay: Sad because the way this country treat migrants (especially those from Latin America) is horrific. Detention centers are rife with rape and sexual assaults.

  72. 72.

    Brachiator

    August 16, 2020 at 7:15 pm

    @Baud:

    FDR was down going into the 1940 election?

    Nope. FDR led in all pre-election polls, according to the Wikipedia article on the 1940 election.

  73. 73.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 7:15 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    probably a lot of fairly recent ex-Republicans,

    Do people actually go through the motions of affirmatively changing their party affiliation like that? Or are they just telling pollsters they are independent when they are still registered Republican?

  74. 74.

    bluehill

    August 16, 2020 at 7:16 pm

    @Brachiator: I think another key group is the double-haters – people that dislike both candidates. In 2016, they went for Trump.

    The result was that about a fifth of people who actually came out to vote did so despite disliking both Trump and Clinton, according to exit polling that year. Somewhat remarkably, three-quarters of those voters voted for Trump or Clinton anyway.

    About half of them voted for Trump. Choosing between candidates they didn’t really like, they seem to have erred on the side of the candidate who was newer to the political scene, someone who, even if they didn’t like him personally, at least hadn’t done things in office that they didn’t like. So while people who liked Clinton but not Trump (about four in 10 voters) overwhelmingly picked her and while people who liked Trump but not Clinton (slightly fewer) picked him, the 18 percent of those who liked neither gave Trump a 17-point advantage.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/08/2016-trump-won-voters-who-disliked-both-candidates-2020-biden-has-that-dubious-advantage/

    This year, they are swinging towards Biden by a bigger margin so far.

    That Quinnipiac poll, though, allows us to again consider the dislike-both vote. Of those who had opinions about both Trump and Biden, about 11 percent already view both unfavorably.

    The good news for Biden? That group prefers him by a 32-point margin.

  75. 75.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 7:16 pm

    @Brachiator: Then the tweet makes no sense.

  76. 76.

    HRA

    August 16, 2020 at 7:24 pm

    @debbie: I set mine on fire in the driveway.

  77. 77.

    James E Powell

    August 16, 2020 at 7:25 pm

    @Baud:

    FDR was the incumbent in 1940.

  78. 78.

    Baud

    August 16, 2020 at 7:27 pm

    @James E Powell:

    Right. That tweet suggests that the challenger in 1940 was leading.

  79. 79.

    Brachiator

    August 16, 2020 at 7:31 pm

    @bluehill:

    I think another key group is the double-haters – people that dislike both candidates. In 2016, they went for Trump. This year, they are swinging towards Biden by a bigger margin so far.

    Makes sense. Unfortunately, in 2016, Hillary Clinton may have been hurt by all the lies thrown at her over the years.

    But Joe Biden has a reputation for being a basically good guy that is not easily shaken by Trump’s attempts to give him a negative nickname or other lame tricks.

    And even Trump’s dopiest supporters see that Trump is willing to hurt them in order to win reelection. He doesn’t care about them at all.

  80. 80.

    Noncarborundum

    August 16, 2020 at 7:43 pm

    @Baud: It says “since at least 1940″. That suggests that the polling data don’t go back earlier than 1944.

  81. 81.

    Patricia Kayden

    August 16, 2020 at 7:43 pm

    Paint the mailboxes to look like Confederate generals and they’ll let them stay.— Brent Terhune (@BrentTerhune) August 15, 2020

  82. 82.

    Jinchi

    August 16, 2020 at 7:50 pm

    @artem1s: Robert Trump has died

    I didn’t even know Trump had a younger brother.

  83. 83.

    Geminid

    August 16, 2020 at 7:57 pm

    @Brachiator: The Wason Center did a fairly extensive poll of Virginia registered voters after last fall’s  election, focused mainly on upcoming General Assembly issues- gun safety, etc. The self identification answers were interesting. Virginia has no party registration, but 34% identified as Democrats, 31% as Republicans, and 30% as independents.        What really struck me was ideological self identification: Strong Conservative,11%; Conservative, 22%; Moderate Lean Conservative, 16%; Moderate Lean Liberal, 23%; Liberal, 14%; Strong Liberal, 6%. I was somewhat surprised that the “Moderate lean liberal” group outnumbered the Liberal and Strong Liberal together, and that the aggregate of the 3 conservative groups was greater than that of the 3 liberal. The Republicans have not won a Virginia statewide race since 2009. But they keep nominating hard right candidates, and the Democrats run moderates like Ralph Northam, Tim Kaine, and Mark Warner, and usually win easily.

  84. 84.

    Kent

    August 16, 2020 at 8:00 pm

    @Brachiator:

    Depends on the region. That Independent voters are Republicans in disguise is one of the myths that a lot of Balloon Juice folk just cannot let go of.

    In California there are more registered Independents than there are Republicans. However, in most elections, they lean towards the Democrats.

    But here is where you are on to something. In some states, a significant fraction of these people are conservatives who had stopped voting at all until Trump came along. They were underrepresented in some polls because traditional analysis did not consider them to be likely voters.

    I expect so.  My perceptions are probably distorted from having lived in TX for over a decade.  I knew a lot of professional types who weren’t particularly enamored with the outright tea party crazy that had taken over the GOP in Texas, so would call themselves independents. But somehow they were never actually independent enough to support a Democrat.  Because Democrats were just too divisive with all that Obama multicultural stuff, don’t you know?  Basically they just wanted to vote for Republicans without being tainted by the crazy.

  85. 85.

    FelonyGovt

    August 16, 2020 at 8:08 pm

    @Brachiator: Biden tweeted a lovely condolence message to Trump on the death of Trump’s brother. Biden is a much better person than I am.

  86. 86.

    Brachiator

    August 16, 2020 at 8:34 pm

    @Geminid:

    The Republicans have not won a Virginia statewide race since 2009. But they keep nominating hard right candidates, and the Democrats run moderates like Ralph Northam, Tim Kaine, and Mark Warner, and usually win easily.

    Very interesting. In some ways, this is similar to what happened in California. Hard core Republicans alienated moderates and are unable to win statewide contests. They still have power in some district and local elections.

    They thought that they could be spoilers until Democrats got a majority in the state legislature.

    However, the Downside is now ignoring registered Independents. The problem here down the road is with younger people who register as Independent in increasing numbers and with people who don’t vote at all. I don’t think these people are going to magically switch to the right, but it makes political outreach more important.

  87. 87.

    Another Scott

    August 16, 2020 at 8:42 pm

    @Jinchi: It looks like Donnie didn’t either.

    As usual, TBogg cuts to the chase.

    pic.twitter.com/ccfS90ZQ8n

    — TBogg (@tbogg) August 16, 2020

    Ooof.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  88. 88.

    Sab

    August 16, 2020 at 9:15 pm

    @Brachiator: In Ohio a lot of the Republicans I know switched to independent when the Tea Party started. They couldn’t quite bring themselves to register as Democrats, but they didn’t want to be labelled Republicans anymore.

    Also, in Ohio, there is a big rift within the Republican party. The powers that be are so sneaky and vindictive that the voters cannot tell who is on which side. The big donors and fundraisers run everything. So they don’t know who to vote for at even the most local level (precinct comiitee person) and they know the Tea Party or Trump person will win all the higher offices, so there is no reason to bother to vote in the primaries.

    That’s why my late mother switched to independent. She was an Eisenhower Republican from a family that had been Republicans since Lincoln.

  89. 89.

    NotMax

    August 16, 2020 at 9:29 pm

    @Sab

    As reaction to Watergate, in Minnesota the entire state party changed its name to Independent-Republican (changed back 20 years later).

  90. 90.

    Achrachno

    August 16, 2020 at 9:29 pm

    @HRA: Boy!  You’re hard core!  :-)

  91. 91.

    James E Powell

    August 16, 2020 at 9:59 pm

    @Baud:

    Okay, so I was also confused because I entered a chain of comments in the middle. Never a good idea. Sorry.

    I have no idea what that tweet means by “since at least 1940” unless that was when they started polling presidential elections. I do recall reading – back when I read about such things – that if it weren’t for the looming World War, that Wilkie would have won. But who can say?

  92. 92.

    Ken

    August 16, 2020 at 10:06 pm

    @Sab: Also, in Ohio, there is a big rift within the Republican party.

    Those who got a cut of Householder’s $60 million and those who didn’t?

  93. 93.

    dww44

    August 16, 2020 at 10:49 pm

    @debbie: I’ve actually saved mine as well as the other pieces of official mail  that Trump has perverted. After he loses, he should have to pay for these transgressions and all his illegal actions.

  94. 94.

    Jeffro

    August 16, 2020 at 10:58 pm

    @Kent:

    They really aren’t even trying to campaign. Go to the Trump 2020 Campaign web site and there is not one single proposal for anything he wants to do for a second term. Nothing. They don’t even have a section for it. “Vote for Trump in 2020 because he wants to……..” They have nothing. I actually ask my MAGA relatives on FB why vote for Trump in 2020 and they don’t have answers except for the trite campaign bullshit.  It’s just weird.  Back in 2016 they at least had answers.  Build the Wall, Repeal and Replace.  Shit like that.  Today they have nothing.

    trumpov’s rationale for running: vote for me so I can stay out of jail and keep harassing the browns

    TCNJs’ rationale for voting: we’re gonna vote for him this time so that we can delay our part in all the consequences of voting for him last time around…and besides, who else is gonna champion white nationalism quite like this guy, eh?

  95. 95.

    Jeffro

    August 16, 2020 at 11:01 pm

    @Kent:All the independents that I know are actually conservative white professional types who are reliable GOP voters but like to pose as “independents” because they think it makes them seem more thoughtful or analytical or something.

    So…they’re “libertarians” or “fiscal conservatives/socially progressive” or “moderates” or “both sides don’t really get it”.

    Yes, yes…so very hard to find competent, moderate candidates these days.  If only there was a party that…

  96. 96.

    Jeffro

    August 16, 2020 at 11:03 pm

    @Patricia Kayden: that’s awesome!  That means (in theory) that somehow, some way, trumpov has to ‘win over’ voters who have already at this late date decided on Biden.

    Good.

    Luck.

    Orange.

    Man.

  97. 97.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    August 16, 2020 at 11:31 pm

    @Another Scott: Christ, Trump does look sickly in that picture, doesn’t he?

  98. 98.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    August 16, 2020 at 11:46 pm

    @Kent: Yes, in 2016 they clearly were excited that Trump might shake up things like Offshoring and the loss of blue collar jobs. My impression is that’s why Hillary lost the Blue Wall was all the union workers though she would be NAFTA 2.0.

    My dad is a retired union guy and says Bill Clinton really pissed them off with that, even though he voted for Hillary a lot of friends from his old job didn’t, because of that.

    But Biden doesn’t have that baggage this time.

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