The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published a short article by me.
Only the Russians know the source of the small radiation releases detected over northern Europe this summer. So far, they aren’t talking. New from @CherylRofer: https://t.co/z2A4PJlsDY pic.twitter.com/KCRMTyMpik
— Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (@BulletinAtomic) August 21, 2020
It’s about what how we know what we know about those radioisotope detections.
Open thread!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
This is what, the third radiation release in Russia this year; this normal Cheryl?
Ken
Congratulations! It sounds like what we know is that it’s the Russians, but they’re not admitting it despite treaty obligations.
Also, do you get a vote when they’re changing the doomsday clock?
Cheryl Rofer
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I think it’s two.
They’re very small but shouldn’t happen. Most likely sloppy maintenance of filters in the plants.
@Ken: No. They have a lot of authors.
James E Powell
Very surprised that the Russians aren’t talking. That’s so not like them.
Brachiator
Good reminder that traditional craziness continues during the pandemic.
As usual, Cheryl, thanks for your insights.
PAM Dirac
@Brachiator:
Seconded. And thanks even more for your detailed analysis of the data that exists and the data that is needed.
Amir Khalid
@James E Powell:
They can stonewall the world just fine when it suits their purposes. They’ve had that ability since at least the Soviet days.
Booger
So, is it safe to call them unclear isotopes?
Benw
Keep those isotopes away from my goddamn detector!
Mike in DC
So you don’t think that this is them testing their crazy nuclear-powered cruise missile again?
Major Major Major Major
Congrats! And thanks as always for sharing your expertise.
Cheryl Rofer
@Mike in DC: I think we would have seen more radioisotopes in that case.
trollhattan
Could those loose radionuclides have gone directly into Alexei Navalny’s tea? Asking for a friendski.
Emma
Can any UK-based commenters give a rundown of the A-levels clusterfuck this year? Now there’s something about an algorithm and a Michael Gove connection to the fuckery? Most of my info is from Michael Spicer’s latest video, and I’m a little scared of checking the news.
Cheryl Rofer
@trollhattan: I suspect it was something else in Alexei Navalny’s tea.
Frank Wilhoit
Time to remember the wise words of Walt Kelly’s Professor Howland Owl: “This here nu-clear physics a’n’t so new, and it a’n’t so cle-ar.”
Steeplejack (phone)
@Emma:
Wikipedia article here.
The Pale Scot
@Emma:
That’s a big job for one person. Short version is Boris has stocked his government with incompetents intent on dissolving the UK (Scotland Free! Celtic Federation NOW!). Not just people who suck at what they do, but people who suck at whatever they do and have no experience at what their position requires. Vlad is very satisfied having pulled this brick out of NATO. Maybe Adam, M.Ranger, M.Snedden(?) or M.Jay will pop by to flesh out the details
Ken
@Emma: @Steeplejack (phone): The algorithm used machine learning to predict the test score, and the training data included the student’s school. This resulted in a strong bias which gave higher grades to students from schools that had done well in the past, and lowered the grades for students from other schools – even if their instructors’ evaluations indicated otherwise.
I’ve seen arguments that it actually captured UK (or at least upper-class UK) prejudices. “Ah, this young fellow went to Eton, he must be brilliant,” versus “Oh, a state school boy, well, we do need more auto mechanics now that the bloody Poles are going back where they belong.”
ballerat
@Cheryl Rofer: It seems the plume is pretty much ‘”X” marks the spot’ in terms of signature. So what is at X? Do you know what’s at the head of this radioactive tadpole signature?
Apologies ahead of time if your linked article explains that. Every time I click on your link to twitter article, I get a “Something went wrong.” message. It’s been like that all day for me for every twitter link here that I try to click on. (I’ve not tried links to twitter from other sources yet.)
Ken
@ballerat: Direct link.
Ryan
Unrelated to the rocket crash? Looks like it, but I thought I’d ask.
Calouste
@Ken: Yep, the problem with machine learning is that the machine will learn all the biases that went into the data you feed it. Just like a lot of humans really. Amazon spends millions on a system to evaluate the flood of resumes they get every day, and then canned it because they couldn’t get the biases out of it. And Amazon made a somewhat serious effort instead of just handing it to whoever of Boris’s mates was in need of cash.
Emma
@Steeplejack (phone) @The Pale Scot @Ken: thanks for the link and explanations! And I believe the Michael Gove connection is through Ofqual. Extra motivation for me to perfect my pineapple sage mojito tonight.
Cervantes
Cheryl Rofer wrote: “The iodine 131 readings were around 1 microbecquerel per cubic meter of air. (A microbecquerel is one atomic disintegration per second in one million cubic meters of air.)”
These sentences in juxtaposition make no sense. If the second sentence is correct, you would need 1 million seconds to make the detection implied by the first. That is less than one atomic disintegration per week.