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You are here: Home / Open Threads / To our Gulf of Mexico coastal Jackals

To our Gulf of Mexico coastal Jackals

by | 63 Comments

This post is in: 

Hurricane Laura is in the middle of a massive, rapid intensification cycle:

Please use this thread to arrange for resources, check-ins and information sharing.

Be safe.

Reader Interactions

63Comments

  1. 1.

    bbleh

    Landfall will be near high tide. Storm surge may be over TEN FEET; NHC describes it as “unsurvivable.” If you’re within 30 miles of the coast, get the fk out NOW.

  4. 4.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @bbleh:

    Jackals, as a rule, are pretty smart and I don’t think they take stupid chances. But at risk of preaching to the converted, “get the fuck out” is good advice.

  6. 6.

    Immanentize

    My feed:

    As a reminder, you can go to https://emergency.rice.edu/ for more information on the storm, where you’ll also find a Hurricane and Severe Weather guide. The City of Houston also has an Emergency Preparedness brochure that you might find helpful. I also like Space City Weather as a source of information on our local forecast and storm discussion.

    Some of you remember Hurricane Harvey three years ago, but please know that this storm is different. Harvey was a high rain event, but this looks to be more similar to Hurricane Ike in 2008, which was a high wind event.

    SpaceCity linky

  7. 7.

    Kent

    Former Texan here.

    That part of the Texas gulf coast is among the poorest and blackest parts of the state (and I expect the country) and is riddled with petroleum and chemical facilities.   This is not going to be good on a whole lot of levels.

  8. 8.

    Hoodie

    @Kent: Yeah, massive refineries and a big LNG terminal right at Sabine Pass. I remember stopping in Port Arthur one time and the whole place smelled like a refinery.  Flatter than a pancake.  Looks like Laura will be direct hit and surge will go well inland.

  11. 11.

    Ken

    That “30 miles inland” is especially worrying considering how much the coastline has retreated north and the land has sunk over the past half-century.  The map in this Business Insider article exaggerates somewhat, but the land it removes is so low-lying that it won’t be much of a barrier this storm surge.

  12. 12.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @WaterGirl:

    I don’t think I’ve ever heard that term used either in weather reporting either. Storm surge 30 miles inland? 15-20 feet? Scary stuff. I really hope everyone in the path of this hurricane evacuates

  15. 15.

    Ken

    Latest NHC advisory (1000 CDT) remains blunt:

    ...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
    ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
    ...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...

  17. 17.

    cain

    get the hell out of there – and find a safe place 50 miles out for heaven’s sake.

    You can count on a poor federal/fema response so everyone should realize that they are on their own.

  18. 18.

    J_A

    @MomSense:

    I think people are misinterpreting this:

    Holy hell. 15-20 foot storm surge up to 30 miles inland. Terrifying.

    In the cone of the storm you have several large inland bays: Galveston Bay, Port Arthur, Lake Charles. Those bays extend 20-30 miles inland. In the case of Galveston Bay, at the other end of it you have the Houston Ship channel, reaching almost to Downtown Houston, which is 45 miles away from the open sea.

    A storm surge will not only push the water on the coast itself, but will also push the water from those coastal bays, and the Houston Ship Channel itself. Hence, places abutting those large bodies or water will also feel the storm surge. However, the impact of the surge itself is limited to those places near the water. It does not mean that the sea will run unobstructed, tsunami like, for ten-20, 30 miles inland along the whole storm surge area

  20. 20.

    Immanentize

    @Hoodie:

    I remember stopping in Port Arthur one time and the whole place smelled like a refinery.

    This is so true (Beaumont as well). I have done a number of criminal case investigations in that area, and it always triggers a constant low level migraine the entire time I’m there.

  21. 21.

    Cermet

    Of course, if you are still anywhere near the impact zone, get as far as possible. But even more so if you live within 30 miles of the coast but are west of the likely impact point, go further westward (that is the weaker side.) If east of the impact point, go a lot further east. Water levels over ten feet above the normal Gulf height driven by 100+ mph winds will destroy even multistory concrete buildings.

  24. 24.

    bbleh

    @J_A:  Uh, are you entirely sure about this?

    Certainly as you go inland, you gain altitude — even if only very gradually — and for every foot you gain, the “storm tide” will be a foot less.  By the time you’re 30+ miles inland, I’m sure you’ve gained 10 feet or more, so the tide would only be a few feet.

    BUT, it IS a TIDE.  It’s not a “wall,” but it’s also not a wave, not even a tsunami; it’s much larger.  It’s a rise in SEA LEVEL that spans a large part of the center of the storm, due to a reduction in air pressure at the center of the storm.  (Roughly speaking, the storm acts like a gigantic drinking straw, sucking the water upward.)

    A ten-foot (or more — some forecasts I’ve seen that include high tide run to 17 feet) rise in tide means the water does indeed rise up and flow over the land.  It’s not just around large bodies of water; it’s all along the shore, and up every creek and into every bayou, for miles inland.  It’s a rapid general rise in sea level (limited, of course, to the geographical area of the center of the storm, and tapering as you get more distant from the center).

    And even, say, 3 feet of water, rising swiftly and all around you, can be extremely dangerous.  Plus, it carries debris and pollutants.

    The wind is usually the scariest part of a hurricane, and the most destructive in terms of property damage, but it rarely kills, unless a wall collapses or a tree falls or something.  But a storm surge kills.

  25. 25.

    Punchy

    So is Dumbass Donny going to suspend/cancel the Thurs portion of the RNC thing to travel and see just WTF happened down there?  LOL, I’m too funny.

    Bigger question — which Democrat will he blame the hurricane on?  Biden or Harris?  Pelosi?

  27. 27.

    VOR

    @WaterGirl: There is a section in the Michael Lewis book, “The Fifth Risk”, about how the National Weather Service learned to change the language in their warnings to get people to actually pay attention. So instead of saying “dangerous”, they say “unsurvivable”

    Good book, highly recommend. Mostly it is about how the Trump administration screwed up the transition and doesn’t understand anything about the roles in government to help people and save lives.

  28. 28.

    Ken

    @Punchy: I think he’s more likely to start babbling about deep state traitors in the weather service trying to make him look bad.

  30. 30.

    JPL

    My first job with Big Blue was in Beaumont and Lake Charles.   I married, purchased my first home and had my first born at Lake Charles Memorial hospital.    Although it’s been a few decades since I visited that part of the United States, it will always be part of my history.   I wish them well.     Mother Nature is mighty pissed at us.

  31. 31.

    Hoodie

    @Immanentize: Wife has relatives in Assumption Parish LA, which also chemical alley but will likely avoid this particular catastrophe.  Of course, their regular day is pretty much a catastrophe, terrifically high rates of cancer, neuro and other problems.  Most of them will vote for Trump because, you know, black people.

  32. 32.

    catclub

    @Ken: That “30 miles inland” is especially worrying considering how much the coastline has retreated north and the land has sunk over the past half-century.

     

    at I-10 north of Bay St Louis, MS ( which feels like over ten miles to the coast). there is a line two thirds of the way up the overpass embankment – so 15 ft? –

    that marks the high water mark from Katrina

     

    Also, when there is storm surge of level X, there are waves on TOP of that water.

  33. 33.

    Punchy

    @Ken: Ah…Hurricane Hoax.  I didn’t think of that angle.  I guess if he can convince people that COVID is a media creation and vaccines can be created in 9 months, he can make the rubes believe that the coming wind is just giant fans plugged in by Democrats, and the flooding rain caused by chemtrail clouds from airplanes all piloted by George Soros .

  34. 34.

    catclub

    @VOR:

    seconded, great book.  A fabulous ad for government service, and the huge number of things our government does.

  35. 35.

    The Moar You Know

    “Unsurvivable” is not a word I have ever seen in connection with natural disaster warnings before.

    I take them at their word.  Glad I’m nowhere near there.

  36. 36.

    catclub

    @Ken: I think if a reporter  asked him why God made this hurricane to make him look bad, he would answer it seriously.

  37. 37.

    Martin

    @The Moar You Know: The warnings the hours before Katrina looked like that. It intensified quickly overnight and NWS had the sense that people weren’t taking it seriously enough. The notices took on a ‘you are guaranteed to die’ tone

    000

    WWUS74 KLIX 281550 NPWLIX

    URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

    …DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

    HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH… RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

    MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

    THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

    HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

    AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

    POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

    THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

    AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

    ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

  38. 38.

    Rileys Enabler

    Goooood afternoon Jackals.  Check-in from the Galveston command center.  (I work on-Island, live off-island).  Looks like we *probably* are outside the cone of verybadthings. Storm surge and wind will be the issues, and as of the 12:00 command meeting, only about 2-5 feet storm surge is expected on-Island.  Our east Texas clinics have been closed since yesterday and will remain closed – staff is evacuated.  The Island and other local hospitals were not evacuated – COVID being just one factor – but there are ride-out teams in place at each.  That said, it looks probable that any damage this side of Bolivar won’t be dramatic.  HOWEVER – East Texas / West Louisiana is about to take a hit in areas that are still recovering from previous storms. Small towns – Beaumont, Port A, Orange, Vidor – my heart is worried sick for them. Right now we are hearing Cat 4/ possible weakening to cat 3 on landfall – nasty, nasty stuff.

    We are home now and have done all our prep.  Riley is sassy as ever and is looking forward to having her humans home for a stretch. I am in an area that expects nothing more serious than possible power outages. We will check in after it passes. Stay safe, ya’ll!

  39. 39.

    Kent

    @catclub: Monster hurricanes like Katrina bring two simultaneous forms of flooding that often co-mingle.

    There is, of course, the storm surge which is essentially a bulge of sea water being pushed ashore.  The hurricane acts like a massive bulldozer with the winds pushing sea water on shore.   Because hurricanes in the northern hemisphere cycle counter-clockwise, the right (east) side has the more severe storm surge as it gets the onshore winds while left of the eye the winds are mainly offshore.

    At the same time, hurricanes bring with them enormous rainfall which will flood a large area on land and cause additional flooding in low lying areas as the rains drain, overtop rivers, streams, and so forth.  That was mostly what happened with Harvey.

    Where you have low lying flood plains near shore like along the gulf coast you can get both forms of flooding at the same time amplifying each other.  The storm surges pushing on shore, and the freshwater flooding flowing down from higher ground meeting in low lying nearshore areas.

    Katrina produced both.  A lot of the flooding was over-topped Mississippi river levies carrying floodwaters downstream rather than storm surge from the Gulf.

  40. 40.

    Kirk Spencer

    So a minor reality check. The further you are laterally from the point of impact the smaller the surge.

     

    At This Time, impact is roughly lake Charles, LA. If so, we here in Houston are expecting 2-4 foot of surge. Still nothing to sneer at especially at high tide, but not the 16-20 monster. Same light,  Houston west of i-45 is expecting 15-20 mph winds. Again, assuming there isn’t a westward jog before landfall.

    If you’re 10 miles inland in Houston you’re probably not evacuating. But you’re on edge just in case. Or so it goes for me.

  41. 41.

    Josie

    We are being told that the general Houston area will get minimum rainfall, so flooding will not be a issue.  We will get tropical storm wind gusts, though, which might cause power outages.  I hate losing the AC, but it’s better than flooding.  We were trapped in our neighborhood for almost a week during Harvey.

  42. 42.

    gvg

    Don’t count on a Hurricane hitting where it looks like on a track map. They veer suddenly. Forcasters say its still really hard. A mile off the prediction pushes water up a different low area. You need to get far away even of you are just at the edge of a cone of uncertainty.  Don’t make plans like those maps are really where the hurricane will actually hit. Big turns are still very possible and even small turns can change where the water goes.

    If you have the ability, go away. Take your pets.

  43. 43.

    catclub

    @Martin: The difference is that that Katrina message did not mention storm surge or flooding explicitly. wow

     

    Lessons learned.

  44. 44.

    Kent

    Wonder if this storm is going to blow the NRC convention out of the news coverage.  Nothing like hurricane porn to attract attention.

    Would serve them right if Trump’s speech is pre-empted by Hurricane coverage.

  45. 45.

    Martin

    Maps suggest everything south of I10 in western LA will be underwater. Wave height south of Lake Charles is projected to be over 55′.

    Hurricanes can develop mesovortices – think of them like disruptions in the larger spinning storm. There are 3 of them on Lauras eyewall right now and they robbing her of some strength because they are pushing against the storm in some ways. She may intensify if those merge. Still over nice warm water, which is where the storms energy comes from.

    Pressure appears to still be dropping but it’s not massively low. Really low pressure storms are pretty durable – they do hurricane things for a long time. Looks like Laura is moving at a decent pace – it’s not going to stall out and dump ungodly amounts of rain on any one spot – and hopefully it’ll weaken a little more quickly once it gets over land. But that first punch is going to hurt.

  47. 47.

    Martin

    @catclub: That did come in other warnings, but the one I posted was the one that got everyone’s attention. Someone at NWS turned off their ‘keep everyone calm’ filter, which got everyone’s attention. So much so that everyone still remembers that warning as a real ‘oh shit’ moment.

    Once they learned that helped, they’ve been more willing to turn that filter off. That’s not necessarily good because we are so quick to remember the warnings that didn’t come about and then dismiss everything after. Everyone has a story of the catastrophic hurricane that they rode out and was fine. The stories of those that weren’t fine are never told – they all died.

    Just more erosion of the public trust in institutions.

  48. 48.

    Kent

    @JPL:Immanentize’s son is at Rice so let’s hope that the campus is spared major damage.

    I would guess so.  It’s in a higher part of Houston and I don’t think ever floods.

  49. 49.

    Martin

    Flood stage in Lake Charles is 4′. The record is 13′. Forecast for overnight is 16′. That’s almost the entire city underwater.

  50. 50.

    Kent

    @Martin: I’m watching the weather channel.  They are doing a good job of describing storm surge and why it is so problematic.  And how once you get past just a couple of inches of flooding it is too late, you can’t get out by car.   Make sure you have an axe so can chop through the roof of your home to escape.

  51. 51.

    Martin

    @Kent: Houston looks like it’ll be okay. It’s on the fading side. Most of the precipitation will be on the leading side.

  52. 52.

    Martin

    @Kent: Make sure you have an axe so can chop through the roof of your home to escape.

    Seems like we’ve pretty badly failed at home design that ‘keep an axe in your attic’ is a routine bit of advice.

  54. 54.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Martin: It’s inexpensive preparedness, akin to keeping a fire extinguisher in your kitchen. I don’t understand what alternatives you’d suggest. If the water level around your house rises by 15 feet, there aren’t many architectural or design remedies that would help.

  56. 56.

    Martin

    Not good. New hurricane hunter passes suggest Laura still strengthening. Central pressure dropping ~5mb an hour, which is VERY fast. That’s roughly the rate that Wilma intensified and Wilma was the 2005 storm that set records – not Katrina.

  58. 58.

    Martin

    @Gin & Tonic: For homes in areas prone to flooding, just some mechanism to get onto the roof so you don’t drown in your attic. Some way to get from a gable vent to the roof.

  59. 59.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Martin: Maybe an architect needs to weigh in, but gable vents and dormers reduce the structural integrity of the roof. So do you design for a 15′ rise in water level, or do you design for ~140mph winds?

  60. 60.

    Elizabelle

    Will sound flip here, but Laura is the answer to some broadcasters’ prayers.  Anything to get out of full attention to the horrors of the RNC.

    Stay safe, southern coast jackals.

    Disaster relief and prevention is a job for the new millennium.

  61. 61.

    Ken

    @Gin & Tonic: I’m not an architect, but I did some fluid physics in college many years ago. A few things I still remember:

    • Drag force is proportional to the square of the fluid flow, in this case the wind speed.
    • Drag force is linear in the drag coefficient.
    • Irregularities in a surface, such as a hatch or dormer window, increase the drag coefficient.
    • Holes in a surface, such as an open or broken window, increases it a lot.

    The generic result from the above is that a building may hold up fairly well as the wind rises, but when a window gets broken or a hatch is torn off, the force suddenly gets much much larger and it often is torn apart.

  62. 62.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Ken:  Quoting from the NWS pre-Katrina bulletin that Martin posted upthread: ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

  63. 63.

    Martin

    @Gin & Tonic: Actually, you don’t do either – you just get people to leave. Hurricanes are not sudden things any longer. I’m just frustrated that we leave poor/immobile people to die because we don’t bother with the social systems to save them, and so many people in these areas have a ‘hold my beer’ attitude about this stuff.

    You solve this with infrastructure, not with rugged individualism, but my faith in infrastructure and collective problem solving is really suffering after the FDA/CDC stuff. So nevermind my previous comment. I’m anticipating a high death toll and a President that doesn’t give a shit because he’s got ratings to look after tonight.

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