A well-known coronavirus model previously cited by the White House forecasts more than 317,000 US deaths from Covid-19 by December — marking an increase of about 8,000 deaths from a previous estimate the model projected one week ago https://t.co/pJbesHP3Gu
— CNN (@CNN) August 28, 2020
I keep hearing this as a talking point on the right.
One look at the numbers will reveal how foolishly mistaken this is. About 1,000 deaths/day and steady.
The virus doesn't care if liberals or whoever you have a problem with are hypocrites about protests or whatnot. https://t.co/I6G9qqoMks
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) August 29, 2020
It treats this pandemic like it's a political gotcha game, and not a health crisis. And just because someone you don't like may TREAT it as a gotcha game, doesn't make it one.
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) August 29, 2020
Groups representing nearly every public health dept in the country called on the CDC Friday to reverse recent changes to its coronavirus testing guidelines, which states that COVID19 patients’ close contacts need not be tested if asymptomatic https://t.co/IsSfLDzFAS pic.twitter.com/b9S7MshIdz
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) August 28, 2020
President Trump's own factual misstatements about COVID-19 are well documented, but back-to-back messaging blunders by U.S. public health officials could create new damage, eroding public trust in front-line agencies. https://t.co/pRqrXBARfh
— The Associated Press (@AP) August 28, 2020
The really weird part about pretending we’re somehow done with #COVID19 is that cases will undoubtedly rise again in the next few weeks.
If recent outbreaks in schools and on college campuses have proven anything, #COVID19 certainly isn’t done with us.
— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) August 29, 2020
======
Read-the-whole-thing thread:
Countries that responded wisely to the pandemic all share one thing in common: a swift, coordinated government response. Here's a thread of their stories. https://t.co/ImPhFs1g7G
— MIT Technology Review (@techreview) August 28, 2020
It's a critical time for an ambitious plan to buy #Covid19 vaccine for the ~170 countries that cannot compete with rich nations for bilateral contracts. @CEPIvaccines says
there's still a path to 3B vaccine doses in 2021 for these countries. https://t.co/QtLYfqwbHU— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) August 28, 2020
China's Wuhan says all schools to reopen on Tuesday https://t.co/XMdwgCOUpZ pic.twitter.com/kEz8Jj6WrJ
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 29, 2020
India passes coronavirus milestone: The largest number of daily cases in the world. This week, the country recorded the highest one-day jump in the pandemic — more than 77,000 cases https://t.co/PtyAX5jd08
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) August 28, 2020
South Korea running out of sickbeds in COVID-19 resurgence https://t.co/ea4pNL4aba pic.twitter.com/sJPV3XqZcF
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 29, 2020
Indonesia reports record new coronavirus cases for third day https://t.co/CP9RRfmtGQ pic.twitter.com/HAvBr5akKY
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 29, 2020
Russia's coronavirus death toll exceeds 17,000 https://t.co/8UJhA4rqXo pic.twitter.com/SPwiEMWgDg
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 29, 2020
Right-wing politicians in Italy are using a flare-up of coronavirus cases to fuel anti-immigrant sentiment, though data shows new arrivals of migrant people are having a "minimal" effect on the outbreak https://t.co/Hq8iwq59TT
— The New York Times (@nytimes) August 29, 2020
German court permits Berlin protests against coronavirus curbs https://t.co/ra2JrcHkGe pic.twitter.com/BXLhHJhz13
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 29, 2020
France sees "exponential" rise in coronavirus cases, as President Emmanuel Macron raises possibility of another nationwide lockdownhttps://t.co/qIsWnguPKo
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) August 28, 2020
Britain is pressing hard for workers to get back into the office, despite rising daily infections, to keep city centers from becoming "ghost towns." Unions say ministers are dinosaurs who don't realize the world of work has changed forever. https://t.co/QqGI3vR8O4
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) August 28, 2020
Argentina reports record number of new COVID-19 cases but relaxes lockdown https://t.co/96eFho2tN3 pic.twitter.com/KxVhZkQpC9
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 29, 2020
Mexico records 5,824 new coronavirus cases, 552 more deaths https://t.co/fQmz1awd8v pic.twitter.com/64H14SglVn
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 29, 2020
======
A 25 yr old patient in Nevada has a confirmed case of #COVID19 reinfection (48 days apart between 1st and 2nd PCR).
This time, unlike the case in Hong Kong, the immune system did not protect this person from reinfection or disease. (1/n)https://t.co/9gMThBoMu2
— Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity) August 28, 2020
During the 1st infection in April, patient recovered after about a month in isolation, testing negative for viral RNA in 2 subsequent tests. Patient was well until end of May, became ill and tested positive 2nd time. This time needing hospitalization & oxygen support. (2/n)
— Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity) August 28, 2020
This case highlights the need for further examination of the range of outcomes from reinfection by #COVID19. As more and more reinfection cases will be reported, we should get a better sense of how well the immune system after natural infection protects against disease. (End)
— Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity) August 28, 2020
The sky is not falling, Act 2: @DrewQJoseph explores what the Nevada #Covid19 reinfection case tells us. Or doesn't. https://t.co/itNCrTbUUH
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) August 28, 2020
Survivors of severe #COVID19 are expected to experience challenges similar to those of other sepsis survivors, including, in some, a post-ICU neuropsychiatric syndrome https://t.co/YjdASt6qTM
— JAMA (@JAMA_current) August 28, 2020
Once a safe and effective vaccine is approved, a new analysis suggests age rather than occupational risk is key in allocating doses https://t.co/yFc5P1ZjRr via @medical_xpress
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) August 29, 2020
Children with no #COVID19 symptoms may shed virus for weeks, even if they never develop symptoms or for long after symptoms have vanished. But questions abound regarding kids as SARS2 vectors. JAMA Pediatrics https://t.co/XMQTf7LVNR via @medical_xpress
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) August 28, 2020
Vladimir Putin said his government was the world’s first to approve a coronavirus vaccine. Unfortunately, it has not been tested properly https://t.co/KAptY34Wy5
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) August 27, 2020
======
“Two attendees and two support staff at the Republican National Convention tested positive for COVID-19, Mecklenburg County officials announced Friday morning.” https://t.co/5s0wljFwwx
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) August 28, 2020
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was a disaster for the Black community in New Orleans. Fifteen years later, African Americans in the city face another disaster that's affecting them disproportionately: the coronavirus pandemic. https://t.co/qBKbvLNwoQ
— AP South U.S. Region (@APSouthRegion) August 28, 2020
Our goal: Test, Test, Test.
New York tested close to 100,000 people yesterday.
And our infection rate stayed below 1% for the 21st day in a row.
Keep it up, New York. #NewYorkTough pic.twitter.com/VQNllRlL8J
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) August 28, 2020
No lies here. To the GOP, health is a luxury, to be enjoyed only by those who can afford it. https://t.co/DnHTvru9f0
— Slava Malamud (@SlavaMalamud) August 28, 2020
gkoutnik
I didn’t watch the RNC but did watch a Lincoln Project post-game, and they mentioned that many speakers spoke of the pandemic in the past tense.
In our upstate NY small, mostly rural county, with two colleges, we’ve had one or zero – mostly zero – cases nearly every day this summer. Students returned in the last couple weeks – 14 new cases in the last few days. It’s not over.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s daily numbers. 11 new cases. One case from local infection: a Malaysian, detected in pre-surgical screening in Sarawak. Nine imported cases: six Malaysians, all returning from India; four non-Malaysians, arriving from India (two), Indonesia, and Qatar. The cumulative reported total is 9,317 cases.
Eight more patients recovered and were discharged, for a total of 9,038 patients recovered — 97% of the cumulative reported total. Active and contagious cases currently being isolate/treated in hospital rose to 154 patients; eight are in ICU, six of them on respirators.
There have been no new deaths since 31st July, and the total stands at 125 deaths — 1.34% of the cumulative reported total, and 1.36% of resolved cases.
WereBear
I get a sprig of hope from the fact that Rasmussen showed a drop in Trump’s approval via the RNC.
That thing was about turning about the Basest of the Base. Losing the outliers is important.
OzarkHillbilly
You mean Russia admits to over 17,000 people dying of Covid, which strictly speaking wouldn’t be a lie. After all, 100,000 is more than 17,000.
WereBear
We went early on Thursday to our favorite coffee shop, all masked, got a whole corner to ourselves, and had a coffee & treat morning as we used to. First time since February.
Baud
They were overprepared.
gkoutnik
@WereBear: Isn’t Rasumssen the one that skews Republican?
WereBear
@gkoutnik: Exactly.
WereBear
Meant to add to my little story the fact that we are in NY.
I’ve seen European comparisons to how well we are doing, positively, and that’s why we felt confident about venturing forth. Since it was pouring rain: we were going to eat outside before that, but the rain and early hour also kept others from showing up at all.
What I don’t understand is how states doing sweetdamall about the virus not having an explosion and breathless media coverage the way the Pacific Coast and the Northeast did.
We know these people are not taking precautions. This is epidemiological science which has been relentlessly accurate all this year. Where are the expected counts?
Has Trump’s blocking testing skewed things so much they are pretending this much?
NotMax
U.S. passes the 6 million reported cases mark. That’s a tad under 25% of ALL cases reported on THE PLANET.
Amir Khalid
@Amir Khalid:
A correction: Malaysia reported ten imported cases today, not nine. The breakdown is correct, though.
PAM Dirac
Thanks to Anne. Here’s an addition, the list of last week’s FDA EUAs. On the diagnostic side the most press came from the Abbot test. There is excitement over a test that doesn’t need a lab and costs $5. I think we are not well served by the “game changer” or “breakthrough” type of framing. Whatever test, vaccine, treatment or what ever that comes up will have pros and cons. Making a useful plan with whatever tools are available takes much more careful attention to detail than is present in media reporting and tweets. Speaking of hype, the Drug entry on this week’s list is the convalescent plasma treatment. The hype around it is bluster and bullshit, but I still don’t see any specific criticisms of the decision or supporting documentation.
COVID-19 related Emergency Use Authorizations (EUA) for Aug 22 – Aug 28, 2020
See FDA page for details and a full list.
Diagnostics
Scarborough, Inc.) – detection of nucleocapsid protein antigen in
nasal swab. Authorized for patient care settings operating under a CLIA Certificate of
Waiver, Certificate of Compliance, or Certificate of Accreditation (ie
NOT home use). An entire test on a card. reported to cost about $5. Has generated some media attention,
but as usual a more thorough look can be found at In
the Pipeline
Qualitative detection of nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2 in nasal swab specimens self-collected at home (but then sent to a lab).
Corporation) – Qualitative detection of nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2
in saliva specimens from individuals suspected of COVID-19
Test ( Biocan Diagnostics Inc. ) – Qualitative detection
and differentiation of IgG and IgM antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in human serum, plasma, and whole blood.
SARS-CoV-2 Assay ( Texas Department of State Health Services,
Laboratory Services Section ) – Qualitative detection of nucleic acid
from SARS-CoV-2 in nasopharyngeal swabs. Restricted to Texas Department of State Health
Services, Laboratory Services Section.
Diagnostics, Inc. ) – Qualitative detection of nucleic acid from
SARS-CoV-2 in saliva specimens.
Qualitative detection of nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2 in nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs.
Drugs
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@gkoutnik: I though Rassumssens screws to what ever narrative sells at the time.
terben
Thanks again to Anne Laurie for her dedication and hard work with this amazing series of Coronavirus posts
In Australia today, Victoria in brackets:
New cases, 112 (94)
Total cases, 25547 (18903)
Deaths, 18 (18)
Total Deaths, 600 (513)
The new case number for Victoria is the lowest since July 5. The lockdown in Victoria is yielding results.
As I type, cyclist Lizzie Deignan of Trek-Segafredo has beaten Mariana Vos in this year’s La Course by Le Tour de France. The Tour de France is up next. Late night television for the next three weeks!
Gin & Tonic
OT, but I’m up and this is the only available thread. Very bad news from Belarus: the authorities have stripped press accreditation from essentially all Belarusians working for foreign news outlets, such as RFE/RL, Reuters, BBC, AFP, etc.
Here’s a story from two weeks ago, about the election-day crackdowns, written by an American journalist (based in Kyiv) who went there on a tourist visa. This (or worse) now faces the local journalists
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Apparently it’s still raging in the sun belt red states. I guess the virus only counts when it’s spiking in New York and California and even the conservatives the fly over narative.
YY_Sima Qian
Yesterday, China reported 0 new domestic confirmed cases and 0 new domestic asymptomatic case, for the 8th day in a row.
At Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Automomous” Region, there are currently 74 confirmed and 30 asymptomatic cases, with no cases in serious condition. 19 confirmed cases recovered yesterday and were discharged from hospitals, 5 asymptomatic cases were released from medical quarantine. There are 1,396 close contacts remaining under quarantine and medical observation.
The city’s authorities just reduced all areas (which were at High or Medium Risk) to Low Risk, which should mean residential compounds will go to normal operations soon. I have never seen any area in China go straight from High Risk to Low Risk (especially not whole city districts), nor residential compounds go straight from total lock down to normal operations (skipping partial lock down stage, where residents are allowed 1 – 2 hours per day outside of the compounds, and restricted access stage, where only residents are allowed to enter and exit freely with green health codes). The authorities had just announced yesterday that they would mass screen all “key” residential compounds in the city, before phased relaxations. I am not sure all of the swabbing have been done for the latest mass screening, let alone the obtaining the results. Ürumqi and Xinjiang governments must have been feeling the heat from popular backlash, which in turn brings heat from Beijing, as well. When Ürumqi’s restrictions ends, I assume those elsewhere in Xinjiang will, too.
At Dalian in Liaoning Province, all patients from the recent outbreak have been discharged, no deaths. 28 close contacts remain under quarantine.
Yesterday, China reported 9 new imported confirmed cases, 10 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:
Today, Hong Kong reported 18 new cases, 16 from local transmission, 5 of whom do not have clear source of transmission.
WereBear
@Gin & Tonic: Bad leads to worse…
TS (the original)
My worst fear of the pandemic is the seeming lack of a worldwide approach to fight this virus. WHO is being defunded by the US and ignored by many. The prior US lead in pandemics is gone & most western countries are trying to create/buy a vaccine for their own people without concern for any other country. Too much effort into getting economies working, too little concern for those who are so economically disadvantaged by covid they are likely to be without a home and/or enough to eat.
Nothing will happen economically without solving the health issues – well that’s not quite true – when the feds decide to stop increasing the money supply (about the time that the Biden inauguration is taking place) the markets will collapse.
JPL
@Gin & Tonic: Yesterday I read that Putin is willing to send in a force to assist if necessary.
If trump has issued a statement, I missed it.
Gin & Tonic
@JPL:
monkeys will fly out of my butt.
Amir Khalid
@terben:
I take it that this year there will not be spectators lining the route.
cmorenc
Electoral defeat of Trump on 11/3 and triumph of Biden taking office on 1/21 unfortunately won’t so quickly dissolve the idiotically selfish resistance Trump has stoked in his base against compliance with the necessary measures to get COVID under control and permit safe recovery of the economy. Trump has infected a third of the US population with a resistant strain of malignant toddlerism.
YY_Sima Qian
Fall semester starts tomorrow at the university my wife works at, others in Wuhan have already started in the past week or so. As she is part of the admin staff, over the past three weeks she has been attending multiple meetings and web based conferences organized at the university, college and department levels, to prepare for the coming semester. It seems 70% of the agenda concerns COVID-19 prevention: the temperature checks everywhere, admin staff to keep close tabs on heath status of each student. All of the prevention measures appear to focus on outward symptoms, which is clearly misplaced, though better than nothing. There is no plan to 100% screen the incoming and returning students before they arrive on campus, which was done when the graduating classes of junior and senior middle schools returned to in-class instruction around the country in May and June. With the almost negligible prevalence of COVID-19 in China, perhaps that is not necessary. Students from Low Risk areas have been allowed back on campus, with green health codes. Students from Medium Risk areas needed a negative RT-PCR test before returning to Wuhan, and needed another 14 days of centralized quarantine and another negative RT-PCR test before allowed back on campus. Students from High Risk areas were asked to delay their return for the time being, and attend classes remotely. All of Xinjiang fell in the last category, even though only two districts in Ürumqi is officially designated as High Risk. Now that all of Ürumqi has been lowered to Low Risk, students from Xinjiang may be allowed to return, too, though negative RT-PCR is probably still required. Students had been asked not to travel outside of their home areas during summer break, though I have no idea how the school admin staff is expected to police that. Once they arrive on campus, students are to remain inside the campus for the foreseeable future. However, teaching and admin staff are free to enter and leave the campus, so I do not what that really does.. Slow down the spread if there is a cluster on campus, I suppose Masking will be required in all classes and offices, but not in dorms and no other distancing measures.
I would not have much confidence in the above measures if there is still noticeable spread of COVID-19 in China. As prevalence is negligible, there is no immediate danger from return of the university classes. My continued concern is what happens if there is indeed an outbreak. The localized outbreaks across China in the past 4 months have shown that, even in the face of probably the toughest and most thorough preventive measures, and a largely alert and compliant population, COVID-19 can still pop up unexpected at any time, anywhere, whether from hidden low level community spread or some sort of foreign introduction. Should that happen, the densely packed dormitories and shared restrooms and dining halls are the perfect venues for one continuous mega spreading event. The young undergrads will mostly likely be asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, reducing the utility of the symptom focused detection measures. At > 1M, Wuhan has the largest student population of any city in China. Each of the dozens of university campuses is a potential COVID-19 time bomb.
Of course, if any new cluster is detected, I fully expect Wuhan to immediately lock down all university campuses (and close all schools), take all classes online, and immediately start mass screening of residents, with priority given to students and workers living in dormitories, in addition to residents of compounds and communities with active cases. These decisions will be made by the local health authorities, not the university administrations. Probably better that way.
Looking at the US, it seems to me far too much leeway has been given to, and far too much onus and responsibility have been placed upon, individual organizations (whether universities, school districts, companies, etc.) to device their own plans, in the absence of clear and detailed guidelines and cohesive strategy from governments of all levels, even in the states that are handling COVID-19 relatively well. Of course, organizations in the US are accustomed to operate independently, and jealously guard their prerogatives and are suspicious of any government interference. That is mostly a good thing in normal times, but these are not normal times…
mrmoshpotato
Inject it into your eyeballs, Vlad! Just to be sure!
YY_Sima Qian
@cmorenc: That strain has always been there, since the founding of the republic. Trump has given it a major boost, after 4 decades (some might say 6 decades) of continuous boost shots from Reaganite acolytes, the Gingrich House, GW Bush’s cynical operatives, Sarah Palin, the Tea Party, etc. The loss of credibility of elites (political, media, policy, etc.) from the failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the Great Financial Crisis, and concurrent surge in anti-intellectualism, has fatally weakened the immune response to the strain.
WereBear
@YY_Sima Qian: At least so far, this stubborn strain of gullibility is connected to fundamentalist religions, which in the US is Protestant Christianity. But worldwide, it applies to any dogmatic “brainwashing” system. Korean POWs and Jim Jones and Heaven’s Gate are all the same thing.
It’s a cult problem.
terben
@Amir Khalid: The first stage is underway with spectators about three deep along the route. Everyone (except the cyclists) seems to be wearing masks.
YY_Sima Qian
I just saw reports that the Cai Li, Party Secretary of the Wuhan Central Hospital, the one Dr. Li Wenliang worked at, has been officially relieved of duty. Rumor has it that she has been placed under investigation by the Wuhan Municipal Party Disciplinary Committee, which is a dark box of extra-judicial Party justice that is the worst nightmare of every Party member and official. There are also credible rumors that she is one of the infamous “nude” officials, with all of her family hold foreign passports (Canada in this case), and most of her assets parked overseas. That alone should have triggered investigation and severe Party disciplinary actions.
She was widely criticized by staff at the hospital and outside observers for suppressing efforts to raise awareness against COVID-19, and failing to make any preparations for the epidemic, during the critical early weeks of Jan. Wuhan Central Hospital has a history of 100 years, and had a sterling reputation. However, through the height of the epidemic in Jan. and Feb., hundreds of medical and administration staff were infected, 6 medical staff died. 3 doctors in the 7 person ophthalmology department passed away, including Dr. Li Wenliang. The hospital also had some of the highest patient CFR during the early weeks. Cai has been accused of seeking to fire Dr. Li after he posted warning of “return of SARS” in his private WeChat group (screenshot of the conversation was then publicized by another member of that group) and was reprimanded by the local police for spreading false information. She has also been accused of targetting Dr. Ai Fen, another famous whistleblower (I actually do not consider Dr. Li a whistleblower). She ordered doctors not to discuss the emerging infectious disease among themselves or with outside parties in early Jan., and ordered medical staff not to wear masks when consulting with patients (to avoid panic). She has been accused of failing to procure and stockpile PPE supplies in anticipation of the epidemic, which led to dire shortages in late Jan. to early Feb. She also failed to visit and comfort any of the hundreds of infected staff until early Mar. Cai rose through the health care system via a series of administrative roles, with no experience in medical practice. Her behavior has been one of the stereotypical Party apparatchik, without expertise.
Her replacement is Dr. Wang Weihua, currently deputy director of Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, and previously Party Secretary of Wuhan Pulmonology Hospital. The hospital was one of first to be designated as COVID-19 hospital in the city, and Dr. Wang has been recognized by the municipal authorities, and praised by his colleagues, for guiding the hospital through the crisis, with the lowest nosocomial infection rate in the city (only 6 staff infected, none contracted at the hospital), and avoiding the worst PPE shortages due to prior preparation. He was also deeply involved in the construction of Huoshenshan hospital, one of the two temporary COVID-19 hospitals constructed in two weeks to treat serous and critical cases.
The announcement was made public at mid-night, and some of the more polemical commentaries have been censored on Chinese social media platforms. Clearly, the authorities would like to keep the episode low profile, and avoid a re-litigation of the embarrassing and inexcusable early response to COVID-19. Nevertheless, thousands of people have flocked to Dr. Li Wenliang’s Weibo account (Chinese version of Twitter), leaving messages to give him the “good new”.
It is a surprise that Cai was only officially relieved in late Aug., though she has not been seen in public for several months. Other incompetent officials who had incited popular outrage had been punished very swiftly. Perhaps she had been protected by powerful backers.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — 88 new confirmed cases of COVID-19, test positivity rate is 0.7% of newly tested individuals. Again zero deaths of people who have tested positive. Hospital numbers of confirmed cases are about the same as the past few weeks with 258 people were in hospital, of those 5 people were in intensive care.
Limited details today since there is no Government statement and questions from the press so no readily available breakdown of where the new cases occurred or links to known outbreaks.
Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
historically, Rasmussen “fluffs” ReThugs, inflating their polling, right up until 2 weeks before the vote, when the numbers narrow and more closely reflect other polls.
On average , their results are +8 ReThug weighted, until it gets closer to the election.
Gvg
@gkoutnik: yes but and sort of. They have historically favored the GOP and their polls have a history of showing republicans doing better than on other polls before the election, but the closer to the election time, the more their poll falls in line with other polls, meaning that the closer they get to the reality check of the actual election, the more truthful they get. If they didn’t do that, they would probably lose credibility.
I think I’ve read that they have been getting sometimes critical of Trump. I may be mistaken. But if so, I have no idea what that would do to their polls.
Doug R
In Rasmussen’s defense, they use a different “likely voter” model than other pollsters. In low turnout years like 2010 and 2014, it’s usually not far off. But when young people are motivated to turn out like 2018, their model doesn’t catch that.
Plus I think they weight it based on old numbers of Republicans, who are at their lowest numbers percentage wise I think ever.
Sloane Ranger
UK Coronavirus Dashboard broken AGAIN so no update from the UK generally but you have headline figures from Robert Sneddon from Scotland. They changed to a new all singing, all dancing site recently and it’s been glitchy ever since. Have used the feedback form to complain.
In other news, the UK Government has, once again, changed it’s mind about school re-openings. In areas with high transmission rates, secondary (11 – 18 years of age) schools can re-open on a rota basis, with half of the pupils attending for a fortnight, followed by a fortnight distance learning.
No-one is impressed. This new guidance was put out on a Friday night before a long weekend and with some school terms starting in days so, no time to prepare anything.
Evil_Paul
@WereBear: Part of it’s going to be suppression of information. Texas and Florida (especially) seem to be working hard to artificially deflate their numbers. There’s also the reality that a lot of outbreaks will be within the ‘undesirables’ populations (immigrant meat plant workers, prison inmates) so they can be ‘counted separately’ or otherwise seen as being apart from everyone else.
Part of it’s also going to be luck. Trump’s RNC speech was the perfect setup for a super-spreader event, but if it just so happened that nobody in that crowd was infected, then it won’t be. The odds of winning the lottery may be crap, but somebody, somewhere, at some time is bound to win it.
Then there’s just the unofficial measures being taken. People in hard core red states may only be choosing to mask at a rate of 20%, but that 20% will have some kind of impact, even if it’s lower than what you’d get at 90%. That’s one of the reasons we’ll never have total infection of the population: At some point the disease will become so obvious and disastrous that no amount of government mis-management will override the fear of the people. Populations will self-lockdown no matter what kind of cheerful face the government’s trying to plaster on to the situation.
Central Planning
Idiot high school kids here in the suburbs of Rochester had a basement party last weekend, and guess what happened? People are being asked to quarantine because at least one of the kids has COVID-19. Thankfully my kids are attending school remotely here when things start back up in a week or so.
One of my other kids attends a local university. They had 5 students and 1 professor diagnosed with COVID-19 this week. We’ll see how quickly that spreads and they go to remote learning. Not soon enough is the answer to the latter part of that sentence.