There isn’t much evidence for the TRUMP IS COMING BACK narrative. The latest batch of post-convention swing state polls at Morning Consult are very good for Biden.. I’m still going to fundraise for Biden a bit here and there, probably around the debates for example. But I think the Senate is the main event at the national level. I may add some more House races soon too.
The Alaska Senate race, where Democrat Al Gross is looking to unseat Republican Dan Sullivan, is one of the most interesting races. The polls are quite tight but it’s not attracting the kind of money some other races are. Should be a good place to donate.
Update: A cool ad for Gross, via commenter marcopolo
Marcopolo
One of the things holding Al Gross back atm is low name recognition. Having more money will allow him to hit the airwaves harder and get his name out. Go Al!
germy
misconduct in Ohio
lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/09/buckeye-trumps
HinTN
@Marcopolo: I’m writing postcards to Iowans whose names are provided by Flip the West. It’s late in the game (they want the cards mailed by 2 September) but this might be a way to raise name recognition for Gross.
HinTN
@germy:
Fake News, you know it’s coming.
DougJ
@Marcopolo:
Yup, exactly.
DougJ
@germy:
It’s kind of fascinating because that party has a real tradition of electing GOP leaders statewide who aren’t nearly as insane as most GOPers. I think that may go hand-in-hand with corruption though since that was also true of the NYS GOP until recently (the corruption didn’t go away but the party did as a force at the state level).
Jeffro
I keep running things at 270towin and other sites, and I just don’t see it – trumpov is a goner.
Man, I hope we can get that Senate majority!
Another Scott
Donated++
Thanks for this, DougJ. It sucks, but having enough money is important in politics.
Cheers,
Scott.
Marcopolo
@DougJ: Yo, Doug, any chance you can embed Gross’ first campaign ad up top. It is a fun ad and he is, as they say, sui generis:
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Personally, I suspect the real source for this is Trump’s own campaign is gaslighting Trump so Trump doesn’t fire them before they cash in. Gifter on grifter violence, if you will.
New Deal democrat
@Jeffro:
There are a few national polls, e.g., Emerson, showing tightening during August (down from Biden +8 to Biden +3). But by and large there is little movement, and particularly not in the Senate races.
One important blind spot: there has been no polling whatsoever in the swing State of Nevada, that Democrats almost must carry, for four full months!
Marcopolo
@DougJ: Don’t confuse insane with corrupt. I’m old enough to remember this from 2005:
Skipping a few paragraphs…
Alas, either Ohioans have short memories or a high tolerance for corruption (Kay you want to weigh in on this?), as the stink from that scandal and investigation lasted all of one election.
DougJ
My hottest take on the RACE IS TIGHTENING stuff is that everyone at the top likes it — press likes a horserace because page views, both campaigns like it because fundraising. And that’s exactly why I’m skeptical in the absence of data.
Ladyraxterinok
Gross’ as quite good
His background ia amazing!!
Marcopolo
You said wut? The Chamber of Commerce is joining the resistance? GTFO!
JR
I mean, the race is tightening. By 1-2 points.
The Biden lead remains 7-8 points.
Haroldo
Will contribute to rid AK of Sullivan.
Meanwhile, I continue to ask myself just 1 week into the experiment: Why, oh why, did I re-subscribe to the Boston Globe after many happy years of not doing so?
bostonglobe.com/2020/08/31/opinion/biden-is-track-lose-electoral-college/?p1=HP_Feed_ContentQuery
P.S. The ActBlue for Gross site is acting very strangely, to the extent I’m not going to use it. It comes up very slowly and has forgotten all of my previous info from many previous contributions.
frosty
Great ad! Good candidate. I’m in!
Omnes Omnibus
@Marcopolo: From having lived in Columbus for 15 years, i can say that there was a certain amount of “Well, sure they’re corrupt, but at least they aren’t Democrats.” Also, the mindset of one of my law school classmates who tried to get me to go to a Federalist Society meeting by saying that the FS wasn’t “that conservative” and that it was really just a debating society* and I liked that sort of thing.
*To an extent, this was true as long as the debate was right vs. far right with an occasional liberal strawman tossed in.
Marcopolo
@DougJ: With this morning’s drop of the Morning Consult Battleground poll 538’s average is back to looking pretty much exactly where it was before both conventions (the MC numbers were reasonably good for Biden).
Mike in NC
Catching up on printed news. Monday’s USA Today had this to say about Fat Bastard:
Baud
@DougJ:
Agree. Also, sad to say, a lot of people on our side are suckers for these stories, so there’s a financial incentive for the media to churn them out.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
Remember the T-shirt?
“I’d rather be Russian than Democrat.”
They mean it.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: Just look at threads on Balloon Juice.
@Baud: Yep.
The Thin Black Duke
@Haroldo: As a Boston guy here, I refuse to feel guilty about not subscripting to a right-wing newspaper. I figure since they don’t have my best interests in mind, I owe them nothing. Loyalty is a two-way street, after all.
New Deal democrat
@Baud:
The GOP will make an alliance with the “far enemy” (Russia) in order to defeat the “near enemy” (Democrats), because the near enemy is the imminent existential threat to white Christian political hegemony in the US.
MomSense
Guys, CD 2 in Maine is really tough. Hopefully Gideon can run up enough of a score in CD 1 to win the election, but we could lose an electoral college vote to Dump. Golden looks to be in good shape – but he is a guy n 2A supporter so that makes him acceptable up thayah.
Baud
@MomSense: We lost CD2 in 2016 IIRC.
Marcopolo
About to rejoin meatspace, but here are the battleground state numbers from the Morning Consult poll (note that Biden winning either TX or FL means he has won so lets hope for success from organizing in those states):
Immanentize
REPORT FROM THE POLLS: (copied over from dead morning thread)
(Polls: The actual ones in which people vote).
I went to participate in small ‘d’ democracy today by voting in the Mass. Primary for the big ‘D’ Democratic candidates. Ed Markey is my man! He was my House Rep. before he moved to the Senate when Kerry became SOS. His constituent services peeps did my family a solid when Bush the W was holding up passports. He intervened to get my son’s passport so I could teach in Hungary.
Kennedy thought he could just crush Markey because he was younger and claimed the title of progressive champ. But AOC (House co-sponsor with Markey of the Green New Deal) backed Markey with the memorable line — “It’s not your age, but the age of your ideas.”
What Kennedy missed is that the campaigns against entrenched Democrats was not only about being progressive — it was about opposing privilege. And no Kennedy can run opposing that. Markey, son of a milk truck driver. Kid who worked all sorts of jobs including ice cream man….
It’s a tight race. I hope Markey beats Kennedy like a rented mule.
sanjeevs
@New Deal democrat: Just out
Nevada Poll: Biden 44% (+5) Trump 39%
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business 8/20-30
Princess
Donated. I think most of my donations this season will be to the slightly less popular senate candidates. I want both but if I had a choice, I’d take winning the senate over the presidency. And I perversely wouldn’t mind if McConnell won his own seat. I’d like him to sit powerless in opposition for a while. If he loses, he’ll just go make big bucks as a lobbyist.
Baud
@Marcopolo:
Ohio sucks. Can’t believe they voted twice for Obama.
Baud
@sanjeevs: So many undecideds in NV.
New Deal democrat
@sanjeevs: Thanks!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
“trump stroke” is trending on twitter, about 41K tweets. Verily, twitter is the Yellow Brick Road into his head
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
That doesn’t sound like him.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: Since his stroke he may be having people tweet for him. Unlikely, but it could happen.
Immanentize
@Baud: That’s because he had a stroke.
Immanentize
@Omnes Omnibus: He always had people tweeting for him, just like Herman Cain.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Immanentize: I’m hoping Markey wins because he’s a long-time climate hawk and the young Kennedy’s sense of entitlement galls me, but I had to laugh at this:
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Baud: In fact doesn’t that sound like Trump’s latest press secretary.
Baud
@Immanentize:
TIL that a stroke can improve your English.
Baud
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I don’t know. I avoid the lie fest as much as I can.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Immanentize: Yes, but I thought Trump would sit in bed, watch the news while eating cheese burgers and dictate his tweets to his caddy.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Well, Bernie voted for the crime bill, so that was always a bogus litmus test.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: you think Scavino sleeps at the foot of the bed, like Elizabeth I’s ladies-in-waiting, in case The Beast has a brilliant thought after watching the rerun of Judge Jeanine at 3 am?
Immanentize
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: There is a not bad article in today’s NYT about the race. Somehow Markey was able to marry the old guard Democrats who really embrace the power of an incumbent with young progressives who really dislike privilege (although the article doesn’t say that). Like Kay sometimes says about good candidates, Markey is just more authentic.
The old guard Dems get Biden, and frankly, regardless of all the noise, so do the young progressives who are not idiots.
ETA. And Kennedy just seems so pissy about not winning this by a mile. Put upon that he has to actually win votes rather than just say who his family is. Kennedy is reinforcing everything positive about Markey.
Immanentize
@Baud: Sometimes a stroke can clear the cobwebs?
WereBear
@Marcopolo: I figured it was inevitable. All this mayhem IS bad for business…
Immanentize
@Baud: Also, those votes I think seem so old times. You know, before Covid and Trump.
Yutsano
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: That was Scavino. He can sometimes leave little trail marks like forgetting the capital letters are truly random.
Gin & Tonic
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I’m just flabbergasted at this. It is impossible even to imagine any other POTUS saying this in any context. It is pathological.
Baud
@Immanentize: They were old times for me in 2016, but other people thought it was an issue.
But the present has ways of demanding attention.
Immanentize
@Yutsano: Isn’t Scavino sleeping with Melania?
.
.
.
.
.
(I just made that up, but it seems like someone should promote the idea)
Omnes Omnibus
@Immanentize: And I never snark.
jonas
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah, there’s a feeling in a lot of red states/districts across the country that Dem corruption is an inexcusable crime against humanity, but when Republicans are caught red handed taking kickbacks or bribes or whatever, they’re just trolling the system (or victims of aggressive prosecutors with an axe to grind against poor conservatives), so wev.
zhena gogolia
Steeplejack
@Omnes Omnibus:
I think his tweets have always been a combination of Trump, golf caddie guy and who knows who else.
ETA: D’oh! Got me.
Mike in NC
@Gin & Tonic: Many of us are counting down the days to when Fat Bastard is “your favorite dead ex-president”.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
What did Trump actually say about Booker? I missed the underlying story.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: except that who else would be dumb enough to hang a lantern on this story by adding in an element no one is talking about? The “series” of mini-strokes
I guess the ex-caddy. People are saying Scavino is Melania’s boy-toy. I don’t know anything about it, but I’ve seen many people saying it. Top commenters. Tippy-top.
Baud
@jonas:
They also tell themselves that it’s unfair for their people to get prosecuted when the Dems get away with doing so much worse (which is an unassailable fact in their minds).
MisterForkbeard
@sanjeevs: Yep. Under 50 for Biden but that’s a good spread for a non-incumbent.
rp
@zhena gogolia: That’s a perfect description.
Steeplejack
@Baud:
Trump has said several times that Booker will be in charge of moving low-income people into the pristine white suburbs.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Trump may have ordered the tweet. I don’t know. The language just seems off to me (as in more normal), which makes me think someone else typed it.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
There is thought, they got a mattress on the floor for Scavino like a dog bed. But I more pictures Scavino sleeping during the day to get up at 1:00am to hoover at Trump’s shoulder and be the audience/ play minion as Trump spends the next six hours babbling about what even is on the TV at the time.
Baud
@Steeplejack: Thanks. From the mockery, I thought there was some new charge that Booker was a scary protestor who was going to burn down your store.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
Baud
@zhena gogolia: Thanks.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: he’s been trying to paint Cory Booker as Biden’ Kommissar of Suburb Destroying for a few weeks now. He brought it out again last night. Just like brain surgeon Ben Carson was a natural choice for House and URBAN Development, along with Eric’s wedding planner
he pretty much says, “they’re coming for your women” in this clip
Peale
@Baud: Well, we have millions of african american men stuck up in our legal and penal system, but somehow black people “always get away with it” is a matter of belief.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
I’m not sure that’s what Cauvin is referring to, though. There might be something more recent.
rp
We all talk about “what if Obama had done x?” whenever Trump does anything insane, but the latest polls have me thinking about “what if Biden had Trump’s poll numbers?” I know the press likes the horse race narrative and wants it to be close, but if Trump were consistently leading Biden by 8-10 points nationally and ahead in almost every swing state, all they would talk about is Trump’s commanding lead and how Biden is a loser and a terrible candidate.
Gary K
Were they tempted to use the Davey Crockett theme music for that ad?
Yutsano
@Immanentize: Did they dance together at the inaugural ball? Have they actually known each other for years? Lord only knows what happens in her separate bedchamber. My understanding is it is not adjoining to his.
zhena gogolia
@rp:
Yep. Take that to the bank.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
What? The man looks like the kind of idiot Dan Aykroyd parodies.
Baud
@rp: Truth.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: I think he made that same Booker reference in the Ingraham interview yesterday, which is why people are talking about it today. I’m not going to watch it to find out.
Baud
@Peale: For the deplorables, it’s the black people who aren’t in prison that are getting away with it.
WereBear
@rp: Since the press is almost without exception well-off white men dependent on their corporate salaries… they hear The Master’s Voice.
Yutsano
@rp: It makes perfect sense. Only Republican presidents are legitimate. Therefore any Democrat who has anything short of a commanding 20 point lead is obviously struggling. And even that 20 point lead is suspect.
May stop commenting from my phone. It’s getting too annoying. I already talked to WaterGirl about it.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@rp: Maybe, the press was doing a lot of horse racing in 2004 even though the polls showed Bush with a lead over Kerry. The press needs drama to bring in an audience to sell advertisement time after all.
sdhays
@Gin & Tonic: It’s the only part of his tweets that I can legitimately laugh at. It’s just so silly and pathetic.
MisterForkbeard
@Baud: Right. I mean, why get Republicans on the Hatch Act when Hillary literally murdered a bunch of people and ate their children? And Obama committed treason against Trump and Comey tried to fix the election for Hillary despite actually violating policy in favor of Trump, etc.
All kidding aside, this is probably a big part of it. Their information bubble is so complete that they think Democrats are constantly committing crimes (nope) and that justifies the ‘small excesses’ of a Republican Party. And they have to support the Republicans wholeheartedly because they’re the only people who will fight the evil Democrats – which makes them great people.
EDIT: The short form of this is Cleek’s Law.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
also, the highlight of trump’s presidency for him was getting his picture took with Mr and Mrs Kardashian-West, and he brags about the support of the mummified remains of Jon Voigt
ETA: and Grandpa doesn’t even know about Selena Meyer
zzyzx
I’m not really a huge fan of the parsing of video to try to diagnose someone critique when there are so many better avenues to pursue, but I’m incredibly amused that he rose to the bait like a neophyte.
The Moar You Know
Trump hasn’t had a full-bore stroke. He would not be able to hide that (any of you who have known anyone with even a minor legit stroke know what I am talking about). He’s got something going on healthwise – he has looked truly ill for the last year. A TIA is a definite possibility but not the sole possibility. I’m thinking he has some severe cardiac issues myself. Mental issues and dizziness caused by insufficient blood flow and made worse by statin use.
I think most of what you’re seeing with his public physical weirdness is the inevitable result of an old man who has got zero exercise for the last thirty years and eaten a diet consisting largely of cheeseburgers and ice cream He should be dead from that, so in a weird way his claim of good genes is probably true.
I also suspect Adam is not wrong in postulating the man has had the shit beat out of him sometime in the last ten years, and some of what we see are physical and/or phobic leftovers from that experience.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@The Moar You Know:
And i must point out because I am horrifically fascinated by this detail: He likes to dip those cheeseburgers in mayonnaise.
I think that’s the nut of it, along with a sudden and unexplained trip to the hospital on a Saturday afternoon (IIRC), when the White House has (I am told) a pretty sophisticated medical office on the grounds. One more case, as with his taxes, where I am just baffled by the lack of curiosity on the part of so much of the American public.
randy khan
@rp:
The best evidence for the thesis that reporters trend to the left in their personal thinking is that they treat polls showing strong Dem leads the way that Mets fans treat a 3-run lead going into the 9th, which is the way nearly all the Dems I know feel.
But, truthfully, I’m okay with that. I want people to be nervous. I want people to think their votes matter. I want to push every potential Dem voter to get to the polls by hook or by crook. And the press saying that Biden is cruising will not do it.
HinTN
@Ladyraxterinok:
“Killed him a bar when he was only three…”
Good ad, nonetheless.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks. Me either.
I liked “protestutki” (just saw that this morning).
raven
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Fuck LBJ
Kay
Okay, I found out why Trump and the low quality hires keep saying Corey Booker is the scary black neighbor no one wants:
It’s that! 50,000 fake scandals ago they once tried to portray Corey Booker as a terrifying radical and that’s the last time they thought about him. So when they needed one a week ago they all said “Corey Booker!”
I had completely forgotten about this fake scandal and I knew about it at the time. 99.99999% of people probably have no idea it even happened.
Baud
@Kay: I never heard about it.
Now I am ascared.
Kay
@Baud:
Well, no wonder. It didn’t exactly “take off” to define Booker since after 3 days it was never mentioned again. Donald Trump and maybe 9 other Republicans remember it, and the 9 all work for Fox.
Villago Delenda Est
This isn’t stopping the vermin of the Village from pushing for the horse race with every fiber of their loathsome beings.
Wipe them out. All of them.
Gin & Tonic
Belarusians don’t like when you compare their protests to anything else, so I won’t, but will just drop this short clip to stand on its own.
Immanentize
@Kay: you just told me it happened and somehow I still don’t know whether it happened! That’s it? “Get into their faces and request change?” Nope. *Checks* No pee rolling down my leg.
Baud
@randy khan:
In 2016, Trump didn’t really come back late, so much as Hillary got pummeled down, with Comey delivering the final fatal blow.
Kerry was always down in the polls.
Gore v. Bush II was always close IIRC.
I think Bush I came back in the polls against Dukasis.
IIRC, Mondale had a convention bump, but was always on the path to losing otherwise.
Reagan got a lot of extra support late against Carter, but I also think he was the odds on favorite to win.
All this is to say, I’m not exactly sure where the apprehension comes from.
ETA: Left out Nixon. IIRC, 1968 was close, and 1972 was not in play.
Villago Delenda Est
@randy khan: Now, imagine you’re a Cleveland Indians fan totally blown away on 5 August 2001 as the Indians make up a 12 run deficit to beat the Seattle Mariners, at the time the best team in baseball.
Cheryl Rofer
Immanentize
@Cheryl Rofer: So it looks like ’92 — Dem challenger against R incumbent — rather than Haberman’s incomprehensible 2012 analogy?
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: I wonder if the 2012 number is just after the first debate, where Obama didn’t do so well against Romney’s gish galloping.
James E Powell
@New Deal democrat:
No polling or no public polling?
ETA – Fivethiryeight just added one today. Biden up 44/39. 12% say they are undecided? Independents are split evenly.
Kay
@Immanentize:
They’ve done this exact same thing before, and recently! We forget because we’re so bruised and battered by their incessant screaming it all blurs together, but Booker was part of the LAST racist campaign.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: So the biggest lead that led to a loss was Gore. Interesting.
eric
i disagree with Joe, here
Kay
My youngest is a high school senior. He’s the third child I went thru the college process with but the first child where small, private colleges are calling up looking for him and it’s only September. I think they’re probably worried about getting students next year and I don’t blame them.
I admire the hustle but I don’t think he wants to go to a small school.
trollhattan
@James E Powell:
538 includes a University of Nevada Las Vegas poll conducted Aug 20-30.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/nevada/
Immanentize
Hmmmm. Biden leads active military?!
Biden over Trump — active duty and veterans.
rikyrah
We gotta vote like never before.
trollhattan
@Kay:
We (class of 2020) started getting college recruiting as soon as the PSAT scores came out. Was that early junior year or late sophomore? I can’t recall now.
There will be a flood.
ETA and give youngest my condolences, because class of 2021 will get hosed far worse than 2020 did. IDK how colleges will handle 1.5 freshmen classes incoming next fall.
Immanentize
Anecdata — I was at the Post Office today sending a package to the Immp and chatting, as I always do, with the crotchety white Viet Vet about stuff. He was a Trumper, but no more. DeJoy has sent him over the edge. “I will not be voting for my friend Donald this time around!”
There go two miscreants
I donated on the last go-’round, but I like his ad so I kicked in a bit more.
Cheryl Rofer
I usually don’t link to Trump’s tweets, but I’m busy and can’t believe this hasn’t shown up here yet.
So I guess it was a series of mini-strokes. Schmidt said only that Pence was alerted in case they had to put Trump under anaesthesia. Another tweet jumped to the conclusion that it was a stroke, and that got circulated a bit. Trump is denying something that hasn’t been alleged.
JPL
@Immanentize: Also what’s going on is shades of Rodney King, and Sr. didn’t act as batshit insane as trump.
Leto
@Gin & Tonic: I honestly laughed out loud at that specific part, and I can’t stop laughing every time I run it through my head. It’s just funny: “your favorite president, meeeeee!” It’s so needy, it’s pathetic. Lololol
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer:
“I Totally diDN’t have a Transient ischemic aTTack. Fake News!”
Gin & Tonic
@Cheryl Rofer: I’m sometimes reminded of a high school incident: scene is a Catholic HS with several buildings you had to walk between from class to class; one of the Franciscan brothers in administration was a real hard-ass, with the appearance and demeanor of a bad USMC DI; group of students walking in one direction, brother walking in the other, captures one kid in his steely gaze; kid panics, blurts out “Brother, Brother, I didn’t do it”, whereupon brother laconically intones “didn’t do *what*?”
Kent
Former Alaskan here. Not THAT is how you run a political campaign in Alaska. Sara Palin’s 2006 Governor’s campaign was actually pretty similar. She didn’t get full crazy until later.
Problem with Alaska is that it is basically Texas in the center with a small slice of liberal Pacific Northwest in Southeast, and Native communities in the north and west. Most of the population lives in the Anchorage area which is an oil-town and sort of a mini Houston. People pay zero state taxes because oil pays for everything and they know it. So traditional Democratic messages simply don’t fly.
Suzanne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I am really tempted to start referring to myself as “your favorite Suzanne, me”.
LuciaMia
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: A shot-gun wedding to a Black Panther Party member.
Baud
@Suzanne: But that would be true!
Jeffro
Wait…is that wrong? ;)
j/k but I do tend to drag my burgers through most every other kind of sauce
Jeffro
@Kay:
@Baud:
“All the violence is on the Left” – every Republican ever
Sab
Our religious nut neighbors across the street just put up their first ever (in the 20 years I have lived here) political yard sign, for Trump. Baptists. Every Sunday church. Whole family goes to bible summer camp. Kids can’t trick or treat if Holloween falls on a Sunday. But Trump is okay. Sigh. I had always thought they were nice people.
I keep tellimg my husband “Shun, don’t argue.” Things are going to be tense around the neighborhood going forward.
Peale
@LuciaMia: Or is that one of the 3 members of the “New Black Panther Party” from the 2008 election. Plus I hear Biden is going to revive ACORN to buy up houses in the Villages and move in folks who only have Social Security as retirement income. You heard it here first.
trollhattan
@Cheryl Rofer:
Weird wording even for him. Ghost Tweet, says I, although it’s sufficiently addled.
trollhattan
@Immanentize:
“…my friend Donald.” Is that an offhand “bless his heart”?
Kay
@Jeffro:
I only remembered the caravans from 2018. I completely forgot the “Cory Booker is black (violent)” campaign. WHICH probably means it wasn’t a great campaign, as those things go.
geg6
@The Moar You Know:
My guy had a minor stroke last year. You’d never know he had it. And no, it wasn’t a mini stroke, it was a minor stroke. He has almost imperceptible aphasia, but you would only notice if you know him well. It’s simply not true that a stroke always leaves a person with obvious deficiencies.
Leto
@Immanentize: If you look at the breakdown for the active side, Biden leads with officers whereas Trumpov leads with enlisted. Enlisted are, essentially, your WWC voters. I honestly expect the beast to have higher levels of support with the Army/Marines (ground pounders) than other services. I’d also expect that among the services Security Forces (military police), and Special Forces, that he’s probably be higher. The whole “alpha male” bullshit thing.
Jeffro
@Cheryl Rofer: I think he’s just seen all the tweets and FB posts hoping that he has a series of mini-strokes (or mega-strokes; those would be fine too) and soon.
Jeffro
@Kay: The caravans! I think it was back in July when I offered my crazy dad a bet as to when the blessed caravans would mysteriously start showing up on Fox again.
I told him that given how things were going for trumpov, the caravan coverage would probably start earlier than usual – mid-September at the latest. He wouldn’t take the bet and promptly changed the subject.
You have to do a lot of ignoring the obvious when you’re in the trumpov cult. A LOT.
hueyplong
@The Moar You Know: It is essential to my conception of Earth as something other than a chamber of horrors to believe that Trump has on at least one occasion been beaten nearly to death.
If you learn for sure that the rumor of his savage beating is untrue, please keep it to yourself.
Kay
@Jeffro:
I was mad about the coverage of the caravans, because I knew it would stop immediately after the election and it did.
The worst was “we’re concerned about the human rights issues”. Yeah sure you are. That’s why we literally never heard another word about those people. Everything’s fine with them now?
Immanentize
@Leto: I’ve just never seen it even close across the services.
Marcopolo
@Kent: Dunno when you left for outside, but oil money no longer covers expenses in AK. There’s been a couple or three billion dollar holes in budgets over the past few years w/ the current R gov cutting the hell out of the state budget to make ends meet. For example, state support for the U of A system was reduced by over two-thirds. That’s led to a fair amount of questioning about how the AK state gov’t is run & who should run it. Add into the mix that ~10% of the state’s population turns over every year and the situation for Dems is as good as it’s been for years. Not saying it’s not a stretch for Gross to win but he’s straight out of AK rugged iconoclast casting and if anyone not an R can get across the finish in first it’ll be him.
Peale
@Kay: And even though these caravans were apparently so large that they were visible to the naked eye from outer space, no one bothered to send a reporter on a caravan safari to actually interview anyone in one. Just a bunch of white people speculating about them for weeks.
mad citizen
@rp: I saw the bias on ABC GMA Sunday morning. WH “reporter” Jon Karl was talking about the polling, trump 7-8 points down, whatever, and the first thing he says is “what he has to do is blah blah blah…” All about trump and what he has to do. No recognition that Biden is kicking trump’s ass. It bothered me all Sunday morning, meant to send Jon Karl a tweet about it. They are desperate for their horserace.
catclub
yeah that big red shift (to ungettable for Democrats) was somewhat surprising. Obama held back the tide for bit.
OTOH, they are right beside Indiana.
artem1s
@Baud:
before the “please proceed” debate the whole Benghazi terrorist attack or not terrorist attack parsing was the HerEmails of that election.
this would have also been before RMoney’s 47% remark too
Leto
@Immanentize: Agreed; just goes to show how fucking awful he is if he’s losing their vote. Military on the whole is generally more conservative, officers and enlisted. The fact he’s underwater with them… also the comments to that piece are just spot on: “fake news” “can’t trust this” and other dumbshit comments.
catclub
if Biden leads overall, then Trump must only barely lead with enlisted, while Biden must have a huge lead with officers.
bluefoot
@Immanentize: I am with you re Markey. Everyone I know who is registered Democrat voted for Markey, so I am hopeful. I voted early voting in person last week.
Even though I’m in a somewhat-at-risk category for severe COVID-19, I am going to volunteer as a poll worker for the November election. I’m willing to take the risk because the stakes in this election are way too high for any votes to not be counted.
Benw
@Jeffro: good thing the caravans aren’t a problem now that THE WALL is done!!
PPCLI
@Cheryl Rofer:
“It is a filthy lie that I had a series of mini-strokes and was taken to Walter Reed because there isn’t an MRI machine in the White House Infirmary and when I got there they wanted to get some Dr. Shabazz M’gumbe to give me the MRI but I insisted on Dr. Lars Nordmannsen instead so they called him and woke him up to come in, and then after the MRI was done they took me into room 423 and asked me to identify a Camel and prescribed me an anticoagulant, blood pressure medication and statins. THAT NEVER HAPPENED. Fake news!”
catclub
@Jeffro: fear of chaos in ‘the cities’ may replace a need for a caravan this year.
I think Trump is too early on ‘chaos in the cities’ because the obvious rejoinder: ‘but you are president and you have made it worse’ will have time to sink in. I say this having actually heard that on NPR, already.
artem1s
@Sab:
everything you describe would make me think they are in a religious cult and so prone to recruitment. I cannot fathom why in the world Americans can’t accept that aligning oneself with religious extremists is an indicator that someone is ‘nice’. In my experience they are almost always one step away from becoming completely unhinged. guess your neighbor’s time is imminent.
Another Scott
@Cheryl Rofer: Scavino probably reads Balloon-Juice. That’s the Occam’s Razor explanation.
Isn’t it??
Hehe.
Cheers,
Scott.
mrmoshpotato
Nice to see Jim telling Sergei to suck it.
Mike in NC
@Suzanne: Did some other guy once declare, “Dein Lieblingsführer, ich!”?
SiubhanDuinne
Just saw a clip of Trump descending from AF1 in Kenosha. It looked to me as though his steps were slightly halting and hesitant, and he was gripping the handrail for dear life.
ETA: For accuracy’s sake, apparently the plane landed elsewhere and he’s going to be driven to Kenosha.
Marcopolo
Haven’t seen anyone mention the Biden campaign has reported raising north of $300 million in August (over 50% from small grassroots donors). That would be a record. In contrast Clinton raised $143 million in 2016. I’m hoping this means they have the resources to both protect the flanks (MN, MI, NV, PA) as well push Trump hard in AZ, TX, FL, and NC. Sorry for no link but posting via phone.
WaterGirl
@Baud:
Leto
@catclub: If you look at the breakdown, overall Biden is 41%, Trumpov 37%, 3rd party 12% (whole lot of Libertarians in the service). It’s worth taking a look because basically uneducated white people are still his biggest supporters. Biden doesn’t have a huge lead, but they show the breakdown between October 2016 and now, and the contrast is pretty large. Trumpov was leading Clinton by 20% this time 4 years ago, whereas Biden is leading by 4 now. To squander that sort of advantage is something Trumpov has done his whole life.
Immanentize
@Leto: And he is reproducing that squandering with white women and olds as well. Let’s just let him piss away his advantages, shall we?
Bill Arnold
@Baud:
Dan Scavino has the keys to D.J.Trump’s twitter account. [1]
FWIW, that tweet [2] is an extremely specific denial. He could have had one ministroke (transient ischemic attack (TIA)), or a full stroke causing significant brain damage, or if one stretches, he could have had the first of a series of ministrokes when he went to Walter Reed, with other ministrokes (or full strokes) subsequent to that visit. Etc.
Or something else. Whatever it was, the story about it being a routine checkup scheduled early has been demolished as a blatant lie. That’s significant too.
[1] Trump’s social media director Dan Scavino is the staffer who’s been around the longest —and he started as Trump’s caddie (Michal Kranz, Pat Ralph, and Grace Panetta, May 20, 2019)
[2] quote: “It never ends! Now they are trying to say that your favorite President, me, went to Walter Reed Medical Center, having suffered a series of mini-strokes. Never happened to THIS candidate – FAKE NEWS. Perhaps they are referring to another candidate from another Party! – Sep 1, 2020”
mrmoshpotato
@catclub: Oh shit! If only this was the village of Chicago! Anyway, I still need butter. Wish me luck!
Leto
@Immanentize: @catclub: Jennifer Rubin has a really good piece about this in today’s WaPo:
The troops want a new commander in chief
It’s worth a read.
artem1s
the biggest change I’m seeing in the electoral college board on 270toWin is that most of the polling has put Wisconsin back into play for the GOP. Before the election most had WI leaning Dem. Election ratfucking in WI might mean it is also a lost cause. A couple of polls before the convention had Ohio back in play for the Dems. But Ohio is a lost cause for another generation until the Raygun babbies in the suburbs die or retire and move to NC or GA or FL. I hope the DNC isn’t wasting a bunch of energy trying to get Kasich voters on board. It won’t happen. 270 should have Ohio firmly GOP, not gray.
On the other hand NC has been threatening to tip blue for a while now and that effort might produce some fruit up nd down the ticket. nearly every other Biden leaning state has stronger numbers than before the conventions. The tossup states just didn’t move all that much either way.
Leto
@Immanentize: “When your opponent won’t stop stepping on rakes, place out a few more.” – Sun Tsu, The Art of Gardening
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I sometimes forget the Drudge Report exists. Back in the early early days of the internet, I used to check it out from time to time. He became increasingly right wing during the Great Clenis Hunt, and promoted every nutty RW conspiracy at least through the ’08 campaign. If you don’t mind sullying your browser history, check out (what is now on) his top-line post. I don’t know when or how trump pissed him off, Drdge had kind of fallen off everybody’s radar, as far as I can see
eta: pictures on-topic wrt to ‘trump is not well’
West of the Rockies
@The Moar You Know:
Trump seems a super likely candidate for a quadruple bypass, a stent, a pacemaker…
Bill Arnold
@Leto:
Frankensteinbeck
@Marcopolo:
I am the most positive and optimistic person here, and I notice I’m so traumatized that Biden only being 4% ahead in Pennsylvania makes me despair. What a Hellish ride it has been.
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck: It’s a single poll taken at the heels of the GOP convention. I don’t like it either, but I think PA will come through.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Frankensteinbeck: I think MC has been stronger for trump than a lot of polls, but… yeah.
Leto
@Bill Arnold: Sun Tsu was Sun Tzu’s lesser known, botanical loving brother. While wildly misunderstood, and overlooked, when originally publish, The Art of Gardening has been making a steady resurgence this year as it’s timeless pruning advice is seen as especially relevant in these troubling times. It’s most ardent followers can be found every Sunday morning on Balloon Juice. – future wiki entry
West of the Rockies
@rikyrah:
Damn straight.
Frankensteinbeck
@Baud: and @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
And you both encapsulate my point. 4% is a massive lead, politically, but this has all been so bad that it scares us. We truly are traumatized.
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck: I think we have a false expectation that PA should be more like NY or CA than it really is.
Sab
@Marcopolo: I want my yard signs already!
dww44
@Frankensteinbeck: Because I think that in a sane America, Trump’s polls shouldn’t even register over 27 to 30%, I’m not comforted by any of these that are said to be good for Biden. There’s gonna be a lot of shenanigans pulled between now and November 3 and we are gonna need to blow them all outta the water. All of them. Let them go starve in the wilderness for a couple of decades.
Frankensteinbeck
@Baud:
I think you have a very good point.
Kent
I left over a decade ago but I still have family there and visit. My brother lives on a boat in Juneau. And I have lots of friends who are still involved in local Dem politics in Alaska. Yes, they are blowing a massive hole in the budget but still can’t come around to actually implementing any state taxes. A lot of rail belt conservatives would rather have no ferry system or universities than pay any taxes. And that’s a problem. But yes, Gross is exactly the kind of candidate who can win in Alaska.
Alaska hasn’t always been so red. Tony Knowles was governor for most of the time that I lived in Juneau, for example. And he was popular.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@dww44: Let us note the number of people like Banon who were just arrested for their hijinks during the 2016 election or other scams. I think that’s a message that while Trump might skate, the little fish won’t.
Sab
Guy at the grocery store in line behind me (30ish black man) bought himself a “Straight Outta 2020” t-shirt. It was an impulse purchase. He was standing in line with just a bottle of pop and saw the shirt on the display rack. I was wearing my “Don’t Drink Bleach!” facemask. His mask was a plain disposable mask.
evodevo
@Sab: believe me…it’s the ‘bortion thing. It cancels out all rational thought in evangelicals…I know quite a few…
Peale
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: If the purity ponies need some excuse to vote for Biden that isn’t “Don’t blackmail me with the Supreme Court” business, mention that a vote for Biden means that Bannon won’t get a pardon.
Ian
@Immanentize:
Active duty members have a much heavier African American and Hispanic percentage than the average population. The ‘military is skewed Republican’ thing comes from the officers and careerists.
evodevo
@hueyplong: Nah…Trumpy? The goons would only have to punch him in the stomach a couple times, and he’d be terrified for life. Such a soft weak person underneath all the bluster and posturing….quite common for bullies to be this way…
Marcopolo
@Frankensteinbeck: Two things:
1) It may be only a 4 point lead but Biden is at 49%, and undecideds are only 6%. Also according to polling this year undecideds from 2016 have been breaking 2-1 for Biden. Trump would have to win virtually all of them to win. In polling 4 years ago Clinton just never hit that number and there were a lot more undecideds who then broke overwhelmingly for Trump. For example, the polling in MN heading into the election was Clinton 46.5% Trump 38.5% but with 15% undecided. Clinton won 46.5 to 45 for Trump. Trump has been president for over 3 1/2 years. He is a known quantity. I don’t see folks breaking for him like in 2016.
2) This is just one poll. Monmouth will be dropping a high quality PA poll tomorrow. Their last one gave Biden a 13 point lead. I kind of doubt we will see that but I’m thinking maybe 7 or 8. If it shows a 4 point lead maybe worry a little but remember each poll is a snapshot in time.
Matt McIrvin
@catclub: Ohio is not ungettable for Democrats this cycle. This poll is actually one of the best results for Trump in Ohio in 2020. They’ve been all over the place and pretty much tied up.
raven
@Ian: Lifers please.
Matt McIrvin
@Ian: The weird thing about that poll was that the sample they took was very white–whiter than the military as a whole. So the situation among members overall is probably even worse for Trump.
Baud
I know they are saying the result won’t be known for several days until after the election, but if we learn that Biden won FL on election night, then the rest is gravy, I think. Or TX, which seems like a longer shot.
I’m not sure if any other state fits into that category.
Marcopolo
@Sab: Hah. I have Biden yard signs up at 2 different houses–though only one of them is occupied atm. Eat your heart out. I also have one of these. I put that order in in June & think it took a couple weeks to process. I am currently waiting on a couple Biden/Harris tees. Unfortunately, I could not swing buying a motorboat so I have not bought any Biden campaign flags or pennants.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: There was a massive polling miss in 2016–not in the national popular-vote numbers, which were dead on, but there was a systematic regional miss in state-level polling of the northern Midwest, and that made all the difference between a Hillary blowout and a Trump win. Everyone is leery because they imagine that happening again.
I have no idea how probable it is–nobody does. State-level poll aggregation had had famously oracular results in 2008 and 2012, and arguably even in 2004, though people weren’t paying attention to it that point. 2016 taught us all that this was pretty much a series of lucky breaks. So we know what we don’t know.
Sab
@evodevo: I will hope it’s that. My husband (Catholic, used to be pro-life) is stunned and outraged and otherwise beside himself. I hope I can calm him down.
taumaturgo
@New Deal democrat: 270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/nevada/
catclub
Bonkers Trump: (from CNN)
sdhays
@artem1s: I haven’t looked at the recent polling in Wisconsin, but just this year, with COVID, Wisconsin Democrats flipped a wingnut Supreme Court Justice. I wouldn’t count them out just yet.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@catclub: “Caravans” all over again.
trollhattan
@Cheryl Rofer:
Jesus, that Reagan ’84 number is staggering. Our economy was in the shitter and folks doubled-down for his happy-dumb-folksy bullshit like gangbusters. Feel the Dukakismentum. Ugh. Wait, that was Mondale. Dems really were a mess in the ’80s.
Sab
@Marcopolo: Are there Biden big campaign flags? I had never heard of that before this election.
Our other across the street neighbor has a HUGE trump flag in her backyard and a regular trump yard-sign in her front yard. Seems weird. She doesn’t even have a big pickup truck to put the flag on. Just hanging over the trampoline.I think she is running an unregistered day care center ( with a trampoline. ) Never a mask anywhere. Ice cream truck came by, also maskless. Everyone talked and bought. Should end well. I can’t even care anymore.
Those who know keep saying that yard signs don’t equal votes, so maybe this is a good indication that Trumpsters are concerned.
Cameron
Looks like the Prez is recruiting a whole lot of new enemies:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-31/trump-plan-to-limit-esg-investing-by-401-k-s-opposed-by-funds
trollhattan
@Sab:
All fun and games until one of those trampolining toddlers breaks an arm. “Where’s mah healthcare?”
trollhattan
@Cameron:
WTF? Who restocked Kudlow’s coke jar? That’s both random and demented.
I would LOVE to see the Trump enemy list–this means they’ve reached DFH.
raven
Round table dick sucking of Trump going on in Kenosha.
Ken
@Mike in NC: @Jim, Foolish Literalist: @catclub: I’ve just had an idea for a website/blog/twitter account. It would be similar to the ones that were live-tweeting World War II. It would start the day after Biden’s inauguration and each day repeat Trump’s most deranged tweet or statement from four years before, followed by analysis explaining why it was picked. For example one of the earliest and easiest ones would be the claims he had a larger inauguration crowd than Obama. In 2023 we’d get the “just 15 cases soon to be zero”.
Do you think people could stand reliving it day-by-day? Maybe with a sense of relief that it’s over?
Leto
@Ian:
Here, I’ll show you why you’re wrong with just a basic search. I’ll limit it to the USAF because that’s my service.
USAF racial breakdown by Air Force Personnel Center as of 1 Jan 2020: 71% white, 15% black, 15% Hispanic
US population per US Census 1 Jul 2019: 76% white, 13% black, 18% Hispanic
If you want, you can take a look at the AF and see the educational breakdown of the service too. The racial lines of the AF pretty much hew to the broader US demographic. We spoke about this a couple a weeks ago and why that is. The military as a whole is a conservative body. It skews Republican for a number of factors, not least of which is the fact that Republicans have done an incredibly good job of painting Dems/liberals as America haters. That’s another post-Vietnam issue.
But, if you think that it “comes from the officers and careerists”, I’ll happily drop you in a back engine shop, or any guard shack, and let you test your hypothesis. Hell, I’ll drop you in any communications shop (one of the more progressive areas you’ll find) and let you test that. Can’t wait to find out your results.
Gin & Tonic
@Ken: No.
Kropacetic
I’m preparing to vote in the MA primary. I’m still not entirely decided in the Markey/Kennedy race, but listening to an interview now that Watergirl recommended. Also, I’m torn between Leckey and Mermell in the CD-04 primary. If anyone cares to weigh in, I’ll be here for a little bit.
Marcopolo
@Matt McIrvin: The one thing that pollsters in general screwed up in 2016 was in seeing the partisan “educational attainment” effect & properly weighting for it. Trump nailed it when he said low information (i.e. non college educated) voters were his people. Partisan identification had been trending that way but it jumped off a cliff in 2016. That error has been corrected by just about every quality pollster.
The other information tidbit I read recently is from David Wasserman who coordinates Cook Political’s congressional race ratings. He said that as someone who was privy to extensive polling in congressional races (which typically also do topline Presidential race numbers) that in 2016 there was a marked breaking for Trump by undecideds over the last 3-4 weeks of the campaign that for some reason didn’t seem to make it into the state level results. And, as you noted, nationally Clinton’s ~3 million vote margin was just about what the national polling predicted.
Anyways, I’m hopeful that polling in 2020 will be similar to that in 2018 where a blue wave was predicted and happened.
And for anyone who wants a well argued and detailed case for chilling the fuck out, there is this from Markos Moulitsas:
I for one, am less worried about the state of the race atm than I am about Trump actually fomenting increasing brown shirt civilian soldier street level violence as he tries to hold on to power.
Cameron
@raven: But is it…bipartisan?
trollhattan
@Frankensteinbeck:
2016 taught me many things, and jittery is now my de facto resting mood.
JPL
@Marcopolo: My theory is that they arrest the leaders of BLM and the country erupts, rightfully so. But doing so a few weeks before the election would cause pandemonium.
raven
@Leto: I joined a Vets for Biden Facebook group and there are a bunch of people echoing what you are saying.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@trollhattan: No, in ’84 it was “It’s morning in America” and “There’s a bear in the woods”. Things were much better than they were in 1980, and Mondale promised to raise everyone’s taxes(a real winner everytime).
raven
@JPL: My theory is that vigilantes open up and kill a bunch of BLM’ers and that lights the whole thing up. Look out Helter Skelter.
Marcopolo
@Sab: In the past, yard signs have been a good way to see how well funded campaigns were and where they were putting their funds. I don’t think that works as well nowadays for presidential campaigns (especially during a pandemic) no longer have piles of signs sitting in campaign offices waiting for placements. Yard signs may, however, be some kind of second order form of showing strength of commitment to a candidate, or a campaign’s ability to get signs out, but no they do not vote nor do they equate to general level of support in a population.
MCA1
@artem1s: After the primaries evidenced a Democratic ability to overcome vote ratfvcking efforts by the state’s Republicans, I’m actually feeling a bit better about Wisconsin. Their Democratic voters came out in force. Plus now they’ll have the Bucks arena as a polling place. It’s still lean D, not a toss up, and nowhere near a lost cause.
Totally agree on Ohio. It forfeited its position as “bellwether of American politics” a long time ago and we should stop treating it as anything other than Northern Kentucky.
North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona are the places to concentrate Biden offensive efforts, I think. Obviously, if he wins Florida all he has to do is get one of MI/WI/PA back to get over 270. Or he could surrender one of those Big Ten states, and take the White House with either AZ or NC (if numerical memory serves).
There are also stealable senate seats in three of those four right now. Mark Kelly doesn’t seem to need much help, but Cal Cunningham could use it. Those two winning get you half way to retaking the Senate. And if Dems could pull off a GA Senate win, it might send the GOP into a full-on panic on Election Night. That would probably mean Collins and Gardner lost, too, and Ernst, Daines, and others might be in trouble.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Leto:
Ah, that adds up to 101%; and no Asians? (The kid says what am I a joke to y’all*.) //
*She did spend most of her Air Force career at Lackland.
ETA: I know with respect to the kiddo she came out a bit more conservative(mainly national security stuff and gun rights) than when she went in. She still thinks Trump is a clown and Dense scares the crap out of her.
Frankensteinbeck
@catclub:
Sab
@trollhattan: My younger step-son broke his arm on a different trampoline in that same yard when he was young. Not illegal daycare then. Should be interesting. As you can see, I no longer care.
jackmac
Late to this thread but — of course — Trump is “coming back.”
The national media needs their presidential horse race so they’ll say and do just about anything to make it so.
Matt McIrvin
@evodevo: Like I’ve said: the one actual QAnon fan I know got into it through extreme anti-abortion politics (right-wing Catholic, not evangelical). It seems to be a real source of brain worms.
catclub
Ohio. used to be tossup, will only go to Biden if it is a landslide.
Leto
@raven: I look at it like this: if the Republicans had nominated someone different, or Hillary had won, we wouldn’t be having this conversation because it would’ve fed right into pre-existing narratives that Republicans/the media have been shaping for 40+ years now. It’s the fact that Republicans nominated/elected the most horrendous person imaginable that we’re seeing this break. And it will probably be just this election that it happens, and it’ll be back to the “normal” come 2024.
Matt McIrvin
@JPL: My biggest fear is that the October surprise is that they arrest Biden, Harris and leaders of the Democratic Party with some kind of bogus charge of terrorist incitement or election fraud. It doesn’t have to stick, just dominate the last few news cycles.
Leto
@?BillinGlendaleCA: US census data for Asians is 5%, USAF is 4%. So still tracking. Yeah, I feel that’s kind of typical (stronger natsec and 2A stuff). I’ll admit that I’m stronger on Natsec than when I joined, but I also look at a bigger picture than what’s typical. I also look at a strong military in a different perspective than most military people (and most civilians). 2A? I’m an outlier: get rid of it. No longer has a purpose. Or put heavy, heavy regulations on it. I get into a lot of heated arguments about this one with other mil people.
Matt McIrvin
@?BillinGlendaleCA: A while back I looked up what general economic conditions were like in 1984, and they weren’t that great. Unemployment was still at 7%! But people were desperate to see any improvement.
The biggest thing was that the inflation rate had gone down to levels we would consider normal, from scary-high.
Chyron HR
@Matt McIrvin:
I mean… if our options are a soft coup through “legally” refusing to count the ballots or a hard coup where Trump has the opposing party arrested, we’re probably better just ripping off the band-aid now.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: They couldn’t get a grand jury to indict McCabe. Do you think they’ll get one to indict Biden or Harris?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Matt McIrvin: I was in grad school in ’84, the stagflation of the mid-70’s to the early 80’s was really a big deal to people. While the unemployment rate was still high in ’84 it was going down, so folk had a more positive outlook. Did I mention that Mondale* promised to raise everybody’s taxes? Yeah that was a real wining idea(he was right that Reagan would too).
*I voted for Mondale in ’84, the few the proud.
Immanentize
@Kropacetic: I have written a lot on this blog about why Markey is a better choice than Kennedy. I really am not going to repeat it now on friggin primary day. If you are still undecided, I don’t get it.
Most of the people I know who are voting for Kennedy are doing so for two reasons — Markey is an older gent and “Kennedy.” There really is nothing more to his campaign. As a big MA political operative I know said about Scott Brown when he beat Coakley : “Don’t worry about him, he will be Senator number 100.” Which is what Kennedy would be if he won.
Why vote for Markey? He is a true progressive voice on climate change and was one of this country’s earliest leaders on that issue. He fought hard for net neutrality and it took Ajit Pai at the FCC to overturn those hard fought advances for the democratization of the internet. Also, and super important to me as I said in this very thread?, Markey is authentic — Kennedy is a privileged whiny ass fucker who has come from privilege and is shocked he wasn’t just given the seat.
ETA to fix blah blah errors
Sebastian
@Marcopolo:
Our company (Evil MegaCorp) was optimizing cash-flow and it took forever to pay out our sales commissions for the second half of the fiscal year. A lot of money finally hit my checking account last Friday.
Since yesterday I’ve been doing the same thing I did for the midterms: Setting up monthly donations to all competitive races.
Fuck these fuckers. Wipe them out, all of them
zzyzx
@Matt McIrvin: the huge difference between 2020 and 2016, is that Trump is in charge now and there is a general distrust of him. It’s one thing to reopen the investigation against Clinton when Obama is the head of the executive; it’s far different when someone who has been pushing the boundaries of what should be allowed goes after an enemy.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: I always think the goal of that CT US Atty Barr has put on the case is to harass people like John Brennan, who is the/a target I would bet on, McCabe, Strzok and Page…. People who have done a lot of TeeVee and been made into a bogeys by trump and the Murdoch family (join my campaign to shame Jeri Hall into turning that ship around!)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
wasn’t it one of your Bay State neighbors who pointed out the futility of arguing with dining room furniture?
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: For some reason, Trump seems to think an announcement by his DOJ that the FBI acted improperly in 2016 is meaningful to the election. I don’t get it, but he knows his base better than I do.
Kropacetic
@Immanentize: It wasn’t so much that I was undecided. My preference was a weak one and I still had materials to get through. I considered myself flippable and I did, in fact, flip today. I was planning to vote for Kennedy but will be voting for Markey.
The CD4 race was the harder one for me because my first and second choices were tied for third in the only polling I’ve seen and I was trying to see if there was a better tactical choice. There I stuck with my original choice, Mermell.
catclub
@Matt McIrvin: it is not the absolute value of unemployment, but the direction. Obama was re-elected in 2012 and unemployment that year was over 8% until October. then dropped just under 8. Amazing.
(It could be seven, but i think 8.)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: big parts of “the left” are stuck in a twitter bubble, MAGAts think the whole world speaks FoxNews as fluently as they do.
soga98
@Leto: I did a hitch in USAF working in COMINT. Came out more liberal except on NATSEC.
WaterGirl
@Kropacetic: Imm and I are both strong Markey. Isn’t that enough for you? :-)
All kidding aside, I will look forward to hearing what you think after listening to the interview.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: It pissed me off when Kennedy dismissed all the climate change stuff from Markey – because he didn’t get the bill signed into law. That’s just bullshit.
Same with Kennedy’s “Sure Markey writes bills and stuff, but Markey doesn’t campaign for other people like I do”. Completely dismissing, you know, the whole governing thing. Grrr.
WaterGirl
@Sebastian:
Is that another name for holding on to the money you earned so they could get the interest on it?
Kropacetic
@WaterGirl: I’ll just say you make a better advocate than Imm.
J R in WV
@Marcopolo:
Here, I only see one Biden yard sign. We live on a .25 mile driveway from a one-lane dirt county road. Neighbors up on the ridge have a “Biden” yard sign that no one but them and us are ever going to see. Well, maybe the other neighbors. But no thru traffic at all.
Jules said it was from a donation they made a couple of months ago.