New poll: Reality is sinking in for how long the pandemic is going to last.
Now: 44% of Americans think it will be 6+ months until things go back to normal. 27% say we'll never be back to normal.
In April, 55% believed the pandemic would be over by June.https://t.co/N2wEfZjtU4
— Drew Linzer (@DrewLinzer) September 2, 2020
A large majority of Americans, 58% see the U.S. government’s coronavirus response as worse than other countries.
But 58% of Republicans (and 67% of frequent Fox News viewers) think the U.S. government has done a *better* job than governments in other countries.
— Drew Linzer (@DrewLinzer) September 2, 2020
‘Urgent’ request sent to states in push for coronavirus vaccine delivery by Nov. 1 https://t.co/771f7GOHbt
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 3, 2020
Preparation is good. The potential to rush a vaccine through that's not yet ready is concerning, though. What do they expect in November, exactly? https://t.co/e3rDXXn4F1
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) September 2, 2020
One of the many crimes President Trump has committed against the country is giving a generation of Americans a test case where it will be quite reasonable to be skeptical/afraid of a vaccine.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 2, 2020
Wow, a former Trump voter tells Alisyn Camerota on @NewDay "I feel like voting for him helped kill 180,000 Americans."
— Amanda Carpenter (@amandacarpenter) September 2, 2020
Dr. Fauci on herd immunity: "That's not a fundamental strategy that we're using. The fundamental strategy that we clearly articulate and go by … is to try to prevent as many as infections as you can possibly prevent."https://t.co/CrK8Dtvb7z
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) September 3, 2020
The US had +41,211 new confirmed cases of coronavirus today, bringing the total to 6,290,737. The 7-day moving average remains above 42k/day. pic.twitter.com/WzZrMKnwOr
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 3, 2020
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Coronavirus update:
?? Elderly drive South Korea case surge
?? FDA to bring outside experts to review vaccines
?? Australia records worst economic slumphttps://t.co/AIkIfb2qKQ pic.twitter.com/aHb6gkFunR— Reuters (@Reuters) September 2, 2020
ASIA TODAY: Beijing’s main international airport is again receiving international flights. Roughly 500 passengers per day will be allowed in from a few countries considered at low risk of coronavirus infection. https://t.co/tcy9yUHZxh
— The Associated Press (@AP) September 3, 2020
Students return to class in Wuhan, but parents and teachers wary of coronavirus risk https://t.co/MBJfH3xeHc pic.twitter.com/QiY1K4loxT
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 3, 2020
India, especially #Maharashtra in in big #COVID19 trouble. https://t.co/CT8KyaVKRJ
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) September 2, 2020
Rising #Covid19 case numbers in Europe underscore the hard truth about this pandemic: Beating it back isn't a one-time effort. @kakape reports on ideas for how to contain more efficiently & sustainably. https://t.co/x5zwzrJkBM
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) September 2, 2020
Germany's confirmed coronavirus cases rise by 1,311 to 246,166: RKI https://t.co/xd8pBjxXyw pic.twitter.com/maAYCOD9I4
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 3, 2020
Britain to fund expansion of rapid COVID-19 test trials https://t.co/hf6YcjTm6r pic.twitter.com/8OZuA0cdwA
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 3, 2020
Coronavirus in Africa: Could poverty explain mystery of low death rate? https://t.co/ew9yQSJ6Fj
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) September 2, 2020
Brazil COVID-19 cases rise to almost four million, death toll 123,780: ministry https://t.co/zT0U7VLOYx pic.twitter.com/8VqBAVu7s9
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 3, 2020
Mexico records 4,921 new coronavirus cases, 575 more deaths https://t.co/LdQzSRxHKu pic.twitter.com/nnuno4Hwwp
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 3, 2020
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Stage of vaccine development via @CNN https://t.co/Ad4AF1Gpf0 pic.twitter.com/sScE0r0ugP
— COVID19 (@V2019N) September 3, 2020
Exclusive: Vaccine group says 76 rich countries now committed to 'COVAX' access plan https://t.co/B1396vC1oC pic.twitter.com/rmNd4jF86G
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 3, 2020
Covid hospitalizations, which are the most objective near-term measure of epidemic's intensity, are continuing to fall. Total deaths are also declining over time as a percent of total hospitalizations, reflecting improved healthcare delivery and declining in-hospitality mortality pic.twitter.com/ropPrqsedd
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) September 2, 2020
Diabetes now found to be as a consequence of COVID19. A study in the journal Nature Metabolism has demonstrated the virus can penetrate insulin-secreting beta cells in the pancreas and damage them https://t.co/QKOBqzEGE8 via @medical_xpress
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) September 2, 2020
Steroids reduce the risk of dying from #Covid19 by one-third, a new analysis from @WHO concludes, saying the inexpensive drugs should be the standard of care for people with severe and critical Covid. @adamfeuerstein reports. https://t.co/nXjYnTjX4Z
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) September 2, 2020
Researchers work to ensure #COVID19 vaccine trials are representative: “We're thinking very hard not only about how to get a diverse population that reflects the US population but also people at high risk — postal workers, home health workers, you name it" https://t.co/8LkIPxMjzy
— JAMA (@JAMA_current) September 2, 2020
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The #coronavirus crisis has begun to ease across the Sun Belt as evidence reveals cases rising in the Midwest. Even with generally good news in the South, the data suggest the region is not yet out of the woods https://t.co/u69NDG2Eeb via @medical_xpress
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) September 2, 2020
Covid-19 has killed more police officers this year than all other causes combined, data show https://t.co/3Qgmmxc8uO
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) September 2, 2020
"These health care providers and others are reimbursed at a higher rate if COVID is tied to it, so what do you think they’re doing?" she said, according to the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. https://t.co/XNdc7BOue6
— Des Moines Register (@DMRegister) September 2, 2020
Make the straps that hold their casket out of the degree so you can let your students down one last time.
— Yumeko Jamommy?? Social Justice Dancer (@MakotoGoinNuts) September 2, 2020
I talked to @dlwest07 who helped blow the whistle on Iowa backdating case numbers. Jones told me on Monday "it's worse than we know", four days later Iowa became the number one state for cases per capita. https://t.co/aYwkaFw0AY
— Lyz Lenz (@lyzl) August 29, 2020
The question on everybody's mind is how much of this #COVID19 surge in the Dakotas is connected to the #SturgisRally …. https://t.co/uGCq7wngEg
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) September 3, 2020
I've been wondering about the Sturgis motorcycle rally; whether we'd be able to see if #Covid19 spread occurred & how the virus spread from there. Attendees were from so many parts of the country.
There's now been a death linked to the rally. https://t.co/zk3JTmbLtM— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) September 2, 2020
OzarkHillbilly
Pro-Life my ass.
Martin
I can’t tell if this voter thinks that’s good or bad.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin: I guess it depends on who got killed.
OzarkHillbilly
From Iowa was reporting false COVID-19 information for months, until this nurse blew the whistle:
Martin
I don’t understand what Iowa is doing.
It’s not uncommon for epidemiologists to backdate tests to the expected time of infection. That usually comes with a robust contact tracing program, which Iowa is clearly not doing, though. And adding in the antigen tests is also confusing.
You have to ask ‘what question are we trying to answer’. I think the public wants to know ‘how many people are currently infected and is that improving or not’. The antigen tests don’t tell you if they are currently infected, only that they were at some point. So adding that in to these dashboards is odd. Doing that *and* backdating is super odd.
You normally want to backdate to understand how the virus spread so you can evaluate the effectiveness of previous efforts. You want the current infection numbers to know how to change your behavior today. And you want the antigen data mostly to show how badly you missed the mark -those antigen tests are missed cases that you allowed to spread – so you want that in the context of the backdated stuff.
I can’t believe they don’t know what they’re doing, so I have to assume they’re doing this under influence
[Edit] Need to add, there’s a debate on whether to report a positive on the date the test was conducted, or the date the result was received. Again, knowing the delta is actually pretty useful information, so there’s a motivation to not draw attention to this
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s daily numbers. 14 new cases. 10 cases from local infection: six Malaysians, three from the Tawar cluster and one from the Telaga cluster in Kedah, and two in Sabah from the Benteng Lahad Datu cluster; four non-Malaysians, all from the Benteng Lahad Datu cluster in Sabah. Four imported cases: two Malaysians, one from the MV Bunga shipboard cluster and one returning from Singapore; two non-Malaysians, one from the MV Bunga shipboard cluster and one arriving from the Philippines. The cumulative reported total is 9,374 cases.
Four more patients recovered and were discharged, for a total of 9,083 patients recovered — 96.9% of the cumulative reported total. Active and contagious cases currently being isolated/treated in hospital rose to 163 patients; four are in ICU, three of them are on respirators.
No new deaths were reported today. The total stands at 128 deaths, 1.37% of the cumulative reported total and 1.39% of resolved cases.
in other news, Senior Minister for National Security Ismail Sabri Yaacob has announced that visitors from countries that have reported 150,000 or more Covid-19 cases will not be allowed into Malaysia, effective 7th September. This ban is in addition to the ban announced yesterday on long-term visit pass holders from India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which also takes effect on 7th September.
Amir Khalid
Re the Indiana University announcement; it’s not unheard of for a university to award, on compassionate grounds, a posthumous degree to a student who passed away when just shy of completing the requirements. I just hope IU won’t need to do that for any of its senior class.
YY_Sima Qian
Yesterday, China reported 0 new domestic confirmed cases and 0 new domestic asymptomatic case, for the 11th day in a row.
At Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region, there are currently 20 confirmed and 7 asymptomatic cases, with no cases in serious condition. 2 confirmed cases recovered yesterday and were discharged from hospitals, 2 asymptomatic cases were released from medical quarantine. There are 381 close contacts remaining under quarantine and medical observation.
Yesterday, China reported 11 new imported confirmed cases, 13 imported asymptomatic cases:
Today, Hong Kong reported 8 new cases, 7 from local transmission, 4 of whom do not have clear source of transmission.
Argiope
@Martin: what if the antigen tests they are adding detect IgM, not IgG? I’m not sure which antigens they are testing for, but IgM is current infections and IfG is current immunity, right? Also, if you retire, please run for something where you get to shape policy. We need you—or at least your region does.
OzarkHillbilly
Another entry in the annals of Republican governance:
If the WH task force said to institute a statewide mask mandate 2 weeks ago, you know it should have been ordered a month before.
YY_Sima Qian
The China National Health Commission announced the plan to further increase RT-PCR testing capacity in advance of the coming flu season in the fall:
It appears that that the central authorities intends to formalize and standardize the responses to any emerging outbreak, especially the mass screening aspect honed through experimentation at Beijing, Dalian, Ürumqi and Shenzhen/Shanwei outbreaks, as well as the first mass screening at Wuhan, and is setting up the infrastructure to do so. While provincial and national level test resources were surged to each of the outbreaks to support mass screening efforts, they were done on an ad hoc basis. The CCP regime is also still treating response to COVID-19 like a war, even as the population is encouraged to return to normality (with restrictions for the “new normal”).
NotMax
Brazil brushing up against 4 million reported cases, India not very far behind; 83,000+ new cases reported there over the last 24 hours.
Russia, from numbers they’ve released (whose reliability all along has been suspect), has now exceeded 1 million cases reported.
Numbers change so rapidly it gets hard to keep up. U.S. deaths now over 188,000. If current trends continue will reach 200,000 or more by the Rosh Hashanah holiday mid-month.
mrmoshpotato
Every pile of Russthuglican Trump trash can get “vaccinated” first. They’ll probably just be injecting people with bleach.
Robert Sneddon
It’s actually funny to watch Russian numbers of (presumably confirmed) cases, every day they get very very close to 5,000 but never quite go over that magic number.
Aug 28 — 4829 new cases
Aug 29 — 4941 new cases
Aug 30 — 4980 new cases
Aug 31 — 4993 new cases
Sep 1 — 4729 new cases
Sep 2 — 4952 new cases
Sep 3 — 4995 new cases
Rusty
“But 58% of Republicans (and 67% of frequent Fox News viewers) think the U.S. government has done a *better* job than governments in other countries.”
When we want proof that propaganda and advertising work, that you can fool some of the people all of the time, that we are no smarter than our ancestors from the dark ages, we can just point to this. It’s not a failure of Trump, it’s a failure of our whole culture and society.
mrmoshpotato
Please tell me Alisyn followed up with “How so?” and let this person have some self-reflection on what a racist, misogynistic, gullible moron they are!
Soprano2
@OzarkHillbilly: l read that in the paper last night. I’m not one bit surprised, because he’s playing to his MAGA base. This is the governor who thought we needed a special session so St. Louis police didn’t have to live in St. Louis, and to try to override their elected prosecutor. *rolleyes*
TS (the original)
I have no idea if the Australian economic impact is as bad as the Feds are making it out to be. They have made some massive errors in their financial math over the past few months.
The Federal government is currently fighting the states who have closed their borders – saying it is doing massive damage to industry and tourism & they should be opened. The states are disagreeing. Putting out these financial figures is how the Feds think they can change people’s minds. Most Australians still think the virus has to be sorted before worrying about economics.
mrmoshpotato
@Robert Sneddon: What’s the significance of the number 5000?
Princess
27%. There’s that number again.
Also: while it is great that the number of hospitalizations are going down and doctors are able to cure more and more of those who do get hospitalized, that’s only one part of the story. I have several friends who had mild/moderate bouts of covid in March — never saw the inside of a hospital — and who are still, STILL debilitated with weakness, heart problems etc. They seem to be slooowly getting better — one reported being able to go for a five minute walk yesterday. But six months of debilitation is going to take a toll, and who knows what the long-term effects on the heart will be. I feel like covid might end in lowering life expectancy across the board.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — 101 new confirmed cases, half of which were in the Glasgow area which is now under advisory lockdown, no home visits from unrelated members, no home parties etc. There’s been one death reported from back in August where it has now been confirmed the person who died had COVID-19. Hospitalisation numbers are stable. Test positivity rate is 1.1%.
The R0 figure, referring to the spread of the disease is now rated at 1.4 for Scotland (big error bars on this though). The lower number of cases and the Test and Protect operation means this number is less critical than it was when there were thousands of cases each day but it’s still worrying.
Robert Sneddon
I’d guess Putin or someone high up in the Russian government has expressed a wish that the numbers don’t go above 5000 as it would look bad. The people collating the data have taken this advice to heart and when the count gets close to that value they stop adding new cases and publish the last number they generated on the spreadsheet.
YY_Sima Qian
The fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has convinced me something that I had suspected, but was not sure of: much high percentage of the population in China is actually in better touch with objective reality, despite the heavy censorship and information suppression and the Great Firewall, than the percentage of population in the US (and the rest of Anglo-sphere ex-NZ, for that matter, but the US is especially bad), despite freedom of speech/press and the open internet. The reasons are as follows, I think:
Liberal democratic government requires informed and engaged electorate (beyond the periodic national elections) to properly function, that requires much harder work in the modern (post-modern?) information environment, and putting away the comfortable assumptions that has led to complacency and apathy. Unless these underlying forces and schisms are addressed, whatever gains from a change in the party holding the Presidency and Congress could prove temporary. 40+% of Americans are living in a fevered dream, have to get that down to < 30%. There are retrograde and reactionary forces in better functioning liberal democracies (New Zealand, Germany, Scandinavia ex-Sweden, South Korea), too, but they have not yet been allowed to hijack the society and polity.
Amir Khalid
@mrmoshpotato:
It has no real significance. Some government pooh-bah decided that a daily new case number of — oh, let’s see — 5,000 would look bad. So the unspoken signal was propagated through the bureaucracy:
falsifyfix the data to keep the number below that.Jinchi
@OzarkHillbilly:
Trump will consider that a confession. ‘This nurse should be prosecuted!’
YY_Sima Qian
@Robert Sneddon: Thoroughout the 00s Putin’s increasingly authoritarian regime at least had the air of competence, compared to the mess of Yeltsin years, anyway. Now, not so much.
Laura Too
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for your daily numbers and commentary. I value you and all posters here for the perspective you bring.
Soprano2
This is an interesting article about a supercomputer analyzing COVID-19 https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63
dnfree
@YY_Sima Qian: I think that’s a stunning and thoughtful analysis. We are glad we were able to visit China, on an excellent tour, in 2008. That gave us just a small glimpse of the people and history, one that the vast majority of Americans will never have. Thank you for sharing your data and insights.
chopper
27%, eh?
Ken
According to the report, they were adding them to the total number of tests, but not to the total positives. So deliberately increasing the denominator but not the numerator.
As Joni Ernst would say, “Trump’s numbers look better if you do that, so what do you think they’re doing?”
Ken
@Robert Sneddon: Someone never heard of Benford’s Law, especially as applied to second digits.
YY_Sima Qian
@Ken: That is why I am much more confident of the numbers produced by China and its provinces than most GOP led states in the US. In Jan., it would have been an unthinkable prospect.
OSweetMrMath
@Amir Khalid:
This is a dead thread, but I have to say something about universities awarding posthumous degrees. In 2013, a classmate of mine at Boston University was killed in the Boston Marathon bombing. The university awarded her a posthumous degree. In response to this death and others, the university began working on a formal policy on awarding posthumous degrees. Boston University finally published the official policy this year, at which time it was interpreted as a response to coronavirus.
It is good and right that universities have these policies in place, and I hate that the existence of these policies is being conflated with the poor coronavirus response that many universities have.
Sloane Ranger
UK figures for today.
There were 1,735 new cases today. Apart from those in Scotland they break down as, England 1,507; Northern Ireland 77 and Wales 50. The trend line continues its slow climb upwards. Wales remains the hardest hit Home Nation with a total of 575.8 per 100,000 population, followed by England at 522.2. The other Nations are in the 300s.
175,687 tests were processed yesterday out of a capacity of 369,937. There have been complaints that it is becoming more difficult to get a test with people sometimes having to travel up to 100 miles and having to wait longer than 24 hours for the result. Having said that there is a walk in testing centre on the Market Square of my town. Probably because we are on the Government’s watch list of areas with a high and growing incidence.
There were 13 new deaths, 11 in England and 1 each in Northern Ireland and Scotland.
StringOnAStick
@Soprano2: Excellent link, thanks for sharing it!
LongHairedWeirdo
So much for “blue lives matter”.
I mean, frankly, “blue lives matter” is a stupid response to “black lives matter” because they’re completely independent statements, and because it allows inference of a despicable lie. After all, we’ve seen cops kill plenty of black people when their lives were in no danger whatsoever.
It’s a messed up country we live in, where you can’t even get people to agree that cops should prevent deaths *when doing them exposes them to no danger whatsoever*.
Royston Vasey
3rd September
Two new cases of Covid-19 have been identified in New Zealand today, one in managed isolation and one in the community.
The case in managed isolation is a woman in her 30s who arrived from the Philippines via Hong Kong on 29 August, and tested positive at day three of her stay at Distinction Hotel in Christchurch.
The community case has been epidemiologically linked to the Auckland cluster.
There are seven people with COVID-19 in hospital; five on a ward and two in intensive care.
With 16 previously reported cases now considered to be recovered – all identified in the community – total active cases are at 115, including 36 people in managed isolation and 79 from the community.
The total number of confirmed cases in NZ is now 1408 (plus 350 possible cases from April).
Laboratories completed 10,521 tests yesterday.
New Zealand had 5 new cases yesterday.
Total death remain at 22.
DaveInOz
Hmmmm.
Bill Arnold
@Ken:
Yeah, digit histograms are fun. It’s easy to crudely do by eyeball, too. :-)