One of our jackals sent me the map he created at 270towin. This looks a bit grim to me, but I am including it as a starting point.
If any of you want to share a map you have made, send me a picture or a link, or include your link in the comments, and I’ll add your actual map in the comments. Same goes for anyone who hasn’t made a map yet, but is inclined to make one now.
Click here to create your own map.
Don’t forget to hit the button on the page that says “reset map” and then start making your changes. Then it sticks.
Oh, and unless your map is at 405 for the Dems, and even if it is, tell us what you are doing to give us a decisive win in November. Map or no map, tell us what you’re up to.
WaterGirl
If you are still considering how you can help, check out this link in the sidebar. I think we’re up to 100 actions and resources on that list.
Taking Action: Things We Can Do
West of the Cascades
Thank you so much for these resources. I’ve been contributing (mostly to Senate races and TX and KS Democratic parties) but just finished a three-month-time-sucking work project and can start doing more GOTV efforts. Four years ago I made a lot of calls to Nevada, thinking that calling/writing voters in Arizona and Nevada is best use of my time the next two months. Seemingly no point in trying to GOTV here (in Oregon, the vote gets you!).
ETA if the election comes down to Omaha or northern Maine, WASF.
westyny
I hope this comment doesn’t date badly, but I don’t see us losing PA, NC and FL this round.
WaterGirl
@West of the Cascades: With all the hijinks we can expect, we need to be prepared for the election to come down to any state, no matter how crazy it is.
Xantar
Arizona going blue but Pennsylvania going red? ?
Jeffro
Here’s mine!
Texas, quit breaking our hearts and FLIP already!!
frosty
I’m going to be optimistic. I think Biden’s got PA and that NC, AZ, and FL are winnable. 327 – 211.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/gwDLG
japa21
Just did mine and came up with Biden getting 352 electoral votes. 55 votes are in toss-up territory. In a super fair election he would probably get more. I also looked at states where the greatest shenanigans can take place and I still had him over 270.
Geoboy
Pennsylvania and North Carolina are going blue. Probably Florida, possibly Iowa (derecho and ruinous tarrifs, anybody?). Outside shot at Georgia (depends on how much Stacey Abrams Get Out the Vote can offset Governor Coronavirus’ felony grade cheating). Texas would be delicious.
Phone banking, delivering and putting up signs, helping with campaign events.
Johnnybuck
Even 538 has a more optimistic forecast than this. Biden has been ahead in fl and Pa the whole time. What is the point of these things if you’re forecasting a tie?
Kropacetic
I put in what I considered the absolute, far-flung, wildest dream scenario. I included TX, GA, KS, MO, a sole NE district and all the traditionally swingy states. That went 429 to 109.
UncleEbeneezer
Started working on postcards for AK Senate candidate Al Gross yesterday. Hosted our online Indivisible meeting and everyone is doing postcards/letters/phone/text-banking. Apparently some of the Field Team 6 Text-banking apps are crashing because they have SO MANY people using them. Likewise, various other groups have actually run out of slots for various actions due to such incredibly high number of volunteers. It’s a good problem to have and a very good sign for Dem turnout in November.
Omnes Omnibus
I got 342 for Biden.
Ken
Clicks, which translate into advertising revenue.
dr. bloor
Mine’s about the same. I have Biden taking PA but losing WI and AZ–I don’t really see a scenario where he loses PA but gets WI + AZ.
WaterGirl
@japa21: share the map?
WaterGirl
@Johnnybuck: The map up top was one jackal’s opinion, which i personally think is grim. Up top I’ve asked for other people’s opinions.
RSA
The map in the post has South Carolina as less red than North Carolina? I haven’t come across any information to support that.
Kropacetic
I just figured out that if, compared to the 2016 results, we pick up PA, MI, and ME-2 that results in a tie. I could plausibly see this race hinging on individual districts in Maine and Nebraska.
WaterGirl
@RSA: I am not promoting what that map says – you have a chance to make your own map, and tell us what you think.
And a chance to talk about what you’re doing to make sure the November outcome is BLUE.
debbie
The Ohio SoS is saying we have until October 27 to return the application for a mail-in ballot. This is with postal delays. I call bullshit.
jonas
I would have Wisconsin as Lean-R and Pennsylvania as Lean-D. I would also have NC, GA and FL as Lean-Rs rather than solid-Rs. Two months is a long time in politics, but I think these are going to be more in play going forward. SC also has a huge active- and retired military community, so it will be interesting to see how the “POWS are luzers” story plays out there and whether it moves the needle or not. Lindsay Graham’s complete silence (unless I’ve missed something this morning) about the Atlantic story says volumes.
FelonyGovt
I have been writing postcards every week for various Dem candidates across the country through my women’s’ Huddle group (now virtual). Tomorrow I’m taking text banking training for the Biden campaign
H.E.Wolf
I look at the maps at https://electoral-vote.com/ which are updated daily, using a week’s worth of aggregated polls for each state.
My favorite map is the one in my office: a map of my state, with a pin for every city in which I have personally added a Democratic volunteer when working with the State Dems’ database.
I only mark cities, not individuals, because so many thousands of volunteers have enrolled. There are almost 400 pins… including what encourages me most: volunteers in cities and towns in deep-red areas.
It has given me a better geographical sense of my own state, as well as a sense of history. The pins/cities track with rivers, coastal ports, and arable land. There are Native American names for many cities and counties, which are different from the Native American names in the other 3 regions of the country in which I’ve lived.
Things I’m doing: Daily volunteering from home, as a database worker (1-4 hours per day, depending on number of new volunteers). Ongoing small batches of GOTV postcards (3-7 hours weekly, as I’m a slow writer with creaky fingers). [Edited for clarity.]
I’ve got a map with pins for the postcards, too. :-)
This map is from https://electoral-vote.com/ (not H.E. Wolf)
glory b
PA IS NOT A RED STATE!!!!
I’ve said this here a few times before, I’ll say it again. Of the last 6 statewide elections here, the only republicans to win were Trump and Toomey. I’m hardly a conspiracy theorist, but I smelled a rat in this. In 2016, we elected Dems as Attorney General, Auditor General, and 4 (to the best of my recollection) statewide judges. On the same ballot as Trump and Toomey! Since then, dems won all other statewide offices.
Biden is ahead and has been for a while. I find it difficult to believe that Trump will win again.
Omnes Omnibus
@Omnes Omnibus: I am at my parents’ house and unable to share my map. I did say WI was likely and Iowa was a lean blue. I said no to Texas and Georgia.
Big R
My nightmare: https://www.270towin.com/maps/LRBxy
Biden picks up the “blue wall” of PA, MI, WI, and ME-2 but loses IA and MN (I don’t have a causal mechanism for this except “this appears to be the hope of the Trump campaign.”)
Hold everything else from 2016 constant and you have 269-269.
Kropacetic
New England pretty much seems to be a lock for the Democrats, though I suppose it couldn’t hurt to make a few calls to New Hampshire or Maine’s second district.
I did volunteer for a ballot initiative that would give MA ranked choice voting.
269-269 gets thrown to the house. It’s important we keep that too.
West of the Cascades
@WaterGirl: With all the hijinks we can expect, we need to be prepared for the election to come down to any state, no matter how crazy it is.
Point well taken. At the same time, the Democratic Party of Oregon’s own GOTV is strong, with good followup to registered Dems who don’t return their ballots immediately, while Republicans here are so dissarayed they’re running a Qanon-adjacent conspiracy theorist against Jeff Merkley.
Yutsano
Here’s what I came up with. A bit more optimism since I think Uncle Joe gets Florida and Pennsylvania easily. I threw in Ohio and Iowa as toss-ups since I think they will be nail biters. Not that it will matter much. If Biden gets both Florida and Pennsylvania it’s all over but the orange shouting.
WaterGirl
@debbie: I presume the Ohio SOS is Republican?
Yeah, I’d listen to that in the same way that I listen to the opposing team yelling “OUT!” when a ball is close to the sideline on our side of the court.
Mousebumples
Related to the Senate, Postcards to Voters is writing for Amy McGrath. They also wrote for Gov Beshear, which was successful, so i claimed some addresses for her campaign . Going to get those written up tonight. I don’t think we’re likely to #GetMitch, but I’m willing to write postcards to try!
https://postcardstovoters.org/
Mousebumples
Each STATE gets a vote, not each house rep. So keeping a majority in the House doesn’t mean we necessarily win in that situation. (I forget how House Delegation ties are broken, too.)
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: I just added the pic of your map to your comment.
I like the look of that. If you want to take a picture of your pin maps, I would happily post them in a thread.
Emma from FL
@debbie: It’s the same in a lot of states. Here in Florida we have until IIRC a week before the election. Most people do what my dad and I did when it became clear we couldn’t stand for any period of time, we put our names into a standing request to receive mail-in ballots. You do need to check your status but otherwise we’re good to go through 2021. This year we are considering dropping the ballots in the boxes. In my area they are usually in our local public library which is fairly close.
Childe Roland
Optimistic I am
https://www.270towin.com/maps/VoLw3
Yutsano
@Yutsano: Okay scratch mine. I know what you need to do. You have to hit the button on the page that says “reset map” and then start making your changes. Then it sticks.
hitchhiker
So damn many variables this year. The one I’m most interested in is what effect the trump campaign against mail-in votes will have on the Republicans’ traditional vote-banking operations. It was wonderful to see Michigan Republicans burning their absentee applications just to own the libs. It’s great to hear that FL seniors are turning against trump … all I know for sure is that the energy to dump trump is like nothing I’ve ever witnessed, and I’ve been voting since Jimmy Carter first ran.
For every rabid trump cultist, there are almost 2 rabid trump-despisers. It’s the stat I’ve been watching since the beginning.
Kropacetic
@Mousebumples: Ooh, that actually sounds less good. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that.
debbie
@Emma from FL:
I wish I had enough faith in my red state to do mail-in. There is only one drop box in the county, so it’s either than or early in-person voting. I still have a couple of weeks to make a choice.
WaterGirl
@Yutsano: The link says 269 to 267 – is that what you came up with, or is that the wrong link?
japa21
@japa21: Try this one. https://www.270towin.com/maps/p2wLw
gene108
My map: Biden 538 EV, Trump 0 EV.
And every Republican up for election this year loses.
If I am making a hypothetical situation up, I’m going to make it a dream come true.
Yutsano
@WaterGirl:
Try this one.
EDIT: Okay that stuck! I got 333 for Uncle Joe and 179 for Dolt45 with Ohio and Iowa as toss-ups. Feel free to post it here m’dear lady!
EDIT II: So I did an update on my comment and I killed the picture. Please tell me that’s fixable?
Emma from FL
@debbie: that reminds me to double-check every week for any changes in the box situation until voting day. Florida likes to ratfuck at times.
artem1s
None of the pollsters have PA flipping red. I also have a hard time believing Joe would lose his birth home state a la Al Gore in 2000. It’s just not likely. And PA was one of the ‘but for a couple of idiots in key precincts who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a vagina haver’ states. A split independent vote isn’t going to hurt Joe as much as Donnie. Wisconsin seems to be the most likely to be a problem in that regard again this year. And that will be moot if any one of five or six red states flip blue this year. If Biden takes FL, NC, AZ, or GA it’s pretty much game over – he doesn’t have to get most or all, he only needs one to flip. I’m betting that this will be the year NC finally decides it’s tired of being lumped in with the rest of the southern bible/gun humping states. I’d bet on GA flipping too except for their governor.
Just as in 2016, the popular vote is going to be a wrap. It’s the ratfucking in the gerrymandered swing states we have to worry about.
I predict 296 to 325 EC votes for Biden with NC and AZ flipping blue on the low side and FL on the high. WI will stay red but it won’t matter. And I predict that Ohio will forever lose their panache as the state that decides the election. It will stay solidly red and be moot to the outcome. So please DNC don’t waste a bunch of time and money there or promise King John Kasich some cozy job in the administration trying to make Ohio happen.
Mousebumples
@Kropacetic: yeah , i hope not . And I’m not sure if it’s CURRENT House Reps, or the newly elected ones that vote either. I’m thinking current … But it’s another reason to focus on the At Large states with 1 rep (eg MT, AK).
WaterGirl
@FelonyGovt: I added that link to the list. Can you check the training item at the link and make sure it’s not autofilled with my information?
Taking Action: Things We Can Do
Yutsano
@Mousebumples: Even more important: Montana is projected to get another House seat next year. It’s not only a possibility of splitting their delegation, it’s a good opportunity to finally work on expanding the damn House! Even 535 would be more representative.
WaterGirl
@West of the Cascades: Whatever you decide on, it’s important to just do something.
WaterGirl
Here’s the list of actions that people in this thread have said they are doing:
Did I miss anything?
What else are you guys doing?
frosty
@WaterGirl: how’s this? it’s a little different, not sure why.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/DWwVd
rikyrah
My Map gives us Arizona, Florida, NC, everything in Maine, that one district in Nebraska, Iowa, and the White Whale – Texas.
I don’t give us Ohio or Georgia.
So, my map gives Biden 379.
Ohio Mom
I think my adopted state of Ohio is close to a toss-up. If I was drawing a map, I’d make it light red not dark red. And there is still plenty of time for Trump to do awful things that will flip more voters to Blue.
debbie@41:
I’m doing early voting but I don’t have a job and so have plenty of options for when I want to mosey on down (and it is down a hill from me) to the Board of Elections. I share with you a lack of trust in our SoS.
m.j.
It’s okay to say, “Democratic,” instead of , “Democrat.” You know why?
It’s true.
geg6
Postcards and texting here. Got my Biden/Harris and Lamb signs in the front yard. We’re on a main artery through the middle of the county with lots of traffic.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/1R6nm
SuzieC
Writing postcards for my local state senate candidate trying to oust the R incumbent. When I’m done with those I’m going to switch to #GetMitch postcards.
Ohio Mom
When this is all over, I’d like to see a thread where everyone reviews how accurate their predictions were. So I know who to follow the next time we are making predictions.
I know, past performance and all, but what else do we have to go on except past performance?
I loved my Uncle Richard no end but never took his political predictions seriously after it became obvious that No, Bob Dole was not going to be our next President.
johnnybuck
@WaterGirl: Yeah… reading comprehension and all that.
Eunicecycle
@Ohio Mom: I agree with you that Ohio is probably light red. Comments in our local paper make me want to vomit, but I notice it is the same people over and over. Since we are retired we are also voting early because we have time to wait. We’ll pack a lunch, as our favorite FLOTUS suggested.
cmorenc
If Biden wins but the Rs remain in effective control of states Biden carries in 2020, an ugly possibility Nebraska and Maine’s congressional-district EV split raises is Rs for 2024 splitting more state EVs up by gerrymandered Congressional Districts, while keeping states that are R on state-level votes winner-take-all. IIRC when the Rs had control of both governorship and legislature in either (both?) Pa and MI, there was a proposal to split these states by CD, but the respective legs backed off at the time.
geg6
@Ohio Mom:
As long as you keep track! I have 318 to 184. PA, AZ and FL go blue, OH is a tossup, NC and TX stay red but just barely. Upper Midwest (WI, MI, MN) all blue.
FelonyGovt
@WaterGirl: I think it’s prefilled with mine. I don’t mind, but let me see if I can get a clean link
ETA try this one- I don’t mind people seeing my first name (it’s not Felony) ?
Mai naem mobile
Inside I am scared shitless Orange Dbag is going to win but outside I’ve got my map with Biden – 412 and Orange Dbag 125. I have Biden getting AZ, WI, PA, NC, FL, IA, OH, all of Maine, TX and MI. I am counting on OH Republican Speaker’s scandal turning it slightly blue. I would love to see some totally unexpected state like MT or KS voting for Biden.
Another Scott
Mine – https://www.270towin.com/maps/mo7vj
I initially had Donnie/Mikey winning IN, but Mikey’s such a loooser that I think that may flip as well.
Sorry, JC. Next time.
Cheers,
Scott.
jonas
Ok, after noodling around some more, here’s my best shot and I’m sticking by it:
https://www.270towin.com/map-images/dw3x0
Because I can’t figure out how to embed.
Ariobarzanes
How does text banking actually work? Do volunteers text from their own numbers?
Another Scott
@jonas: Only those with super powers (front pagers) can embed images.
;-)
WG will do it for us in this thread!
Cheers,
Scott.
VFX Lurker
Hooray! I wrote my first fifteen postcards for Amy McGrath this morning; will write more later today.
guachi
Here my map. Biden at 290.
Flips WI, MI, PA, AZ, ME-2
https://www.270towin.com/maps/P7xe0
jnfr
We are working with Vote Forward prepping letters for the Big Send GOTV drive in a few weeks.
And donating a bit here and there. I have my own little list of Dem candidates in various Senate and House races that I want to encourage.
Elizabelle
Maps like this one is why the EeyoreCake was created. Please throw one at this jackal.
If you can get his head out of the oven
ETA: Seriously, any state that is in the least in doubt goes to the Republicans. Look at that thing.
WaterGirl
@Ohio Mom: That would be fun. Win or lose, we can repost the thread.
WaterGirl
@geg6: We can even do this again 30 days out. And the day before.
Then after the election, we can look at all of them.
WaterGirl
@FelonyGovt: Yep, it’s very smart. When you click it, it shows your info. when I click it, it shows my info.
So if someone else clicks it, and the Biden campaign knows who they are, it will be filled with THEIR info.
WaterGirl
@jonas: No regular commenters can embed! I am going back after the fact and adding the pictures in so we can see them all visually without clicking on anything.
WaterGirl
@Ariobarzanes: Can somebody who has done text banking answer this?
If no one answers, you could go to the Biden text banking training – there are 35 trainings this week – and find out. Then you can report back to us!
NoraLenderbee
@jonas: This map is reassuring to me because it doesn’t require flipping states like Georgia and other stretches.
WaterGirl
@Elizabelle: The way I look at it is this. It’s kind of nice to know where everybody is at, even if we don’t agree. Folks are sharing their thoughts and their maps. and I always learn something when we do that.
Who’s to say that after reading this thread, a person who posted a map at #10 (totally random choice) isn’t feeling more optimistic, or less wildly optimistic, than they were when they started reading.
I am inspired by seeing the reporting of the work people are doing for our side.
hueyplong
Based on everyone’s maps, NC seems to win it unless PA goes the wrong way.
NC is the swing state that doesn’t have a criminal GOPer as governor, though it’s also the state with a demonstrated example of GOPers committing fraud on mail-in voting (in 2018).
Personal fantasies involve Texas, which should and probably would demoralize them for quite some time if it happened. It would render female disenfranchisement their only path to the White House.
WaterGirl
Based on this crazy world we are currently living in, and all the shenanigans – that’s way too polite a word for this – I predict that we will win some state that is crazy for us to win, and that we will lose some state that is crazy for us to lose.
The trick is for us to work our asses off so win a whole lot more than we lose.
Zelma
Re Pennsylvania, I think Biden takes it. Trump carried the state because he carried the Alabama parts of the state by a lot and did OK in the suburbs around Philadelphia. But the Philly suburbs are gone as are the biggest Pittsburgh ‘burbs. And there was an article in the Philly paper this weekend about an upsurge of Democratic organizing in the middle of the state, in suburban-like areas. The Democrats have done really well in state and congressional elections since 2016. I think Biden will be fine.
burnspbesq
@Jeffro:
If only it were that easy. Texas is, in case you’ve forgotten, full of Texans.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl: I didn’t see a clear answer in my searching for the Biden campaign’s tools.
However, the DNC uses something called “Hustle” for their textbanking. A presentation on how it works, why it’s good, etc., is here – https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/TOTV-Deck-2020.pdf (28 page PDF)
Presumably Biden’s people use something similar but I don’t know.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
H.E.Wolf
I just logged back in to check the thread and was surprised to see the Electoral Vote blog’s map from this morning. Thought I might have clicked some random button. :) Thank you for posting it!
NOTE: It’s https://electoral-vote.com/ who get the credit for the map! They update their map daily, using a week’s worth of aggregated polls for each state. Their Sept. 7 post has a detailed description of how they settled on 1 week.
I’ve got a check-in later this week with someone on the State Dems’ staff. I’ll ask if the pin map would be OK to post, or not… we don’t want the Republicans to know too much, do we?
The “postcards written” pin map should be fine to post, because I’ve done relatively few cards compared to the total number the org. has sent (in the millions). I’ll send you a photo in the very near future!
[Edited to fix formatting.]
WaterGirl
@Zelma: That’s all great to hear!
Are you involved in any of that? I would love to know if we jackals collectively have boots on the ground in every state. And DC and Puerto Rico.
I might do a “boots on the ground” post if anyone’s interested. Ask people to sound off with their state if they are contributing any time toward the efforts for a state.
edit: Not just states… if you’re working with indigenous groups, or efforts for felons, etc.
john b
@artem1s:
“finally decides”? We voted for Obama in 08 and have a Democratic governor and AG. It is only in the last few cycles that we’ve had a republican state legislature (almost entirely because of a bad year in 2010 and gerrymandering). NC is much more of a swing state than anything.
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: I think it was clear that the map was from that link, but I just took the liberty of editing that comment to add that information again underneath the map. :-)
Hopefully that will even be clear to the speed-readers :-) on BJ. (Not a critique, as I sometimes resemble that remark.)
Ariobarzanes
@Another Scott: Thanks for the info!!
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: If you are correct, DumbFuckistan has gotten a lot smaller than it was in 2008!
H.E.Wolf
@WaterGirl: Thanks! I’m always intrigued by the fancy maneuvers that the front-pagers can do from behind the scenes. :)
New Deal democrat
I’ve been generating Maps based solely on State polling for about eight weeks now.
here’s a link to my latest.
methodology is explained at the link.
Ed Marshall
My map where I believe covid does what I think it will do and it has the usual consequences for Donald Trumps popularity.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/LRBGx.png
different-church-lady
@WaterGirl: Or, we could just drive nails in to our foreheads. To me it would feel the same.
artem1s
@john b:
Yes, I agree. I believe that NC has the most chance of going blue in the electoral college. A lot of red states went blue in 2008 but haven’t since. Carter and Obama were the only times a lot of southern states have voted Democratic since the civil rights act was passed. And most of them swung back in 1980 and 2012.
WaterGirl
@different-church-lady: Not if we work our butts off and win this thing! Or even then?
Richard Guhl
@westyny: this is purely anecdotal, but in my working class neighborhood in Allentown PA there were 6 Trump signs and 4 Clinton signs in 2016.
Today, there are 8 Biden signs ( including one self-proclaimed nasty woman and one flag) and zero Trump signs.
janeform
290 to 248. Red FL and GA ensured because they can cheat and get away with it easily. I might have a slightly different map if I took more time to look at election laws in each of the toss-up states.
mrmoshpotato
@different-church-lady: LOL
Does feel like self-inflicted torture. And what kind of masochist comes up with a 269-269 map? Why do they hate us?
john b
@artem1s: NC had a dem legislature for something like 100 years prior to 2010, and they have a gerrymandering problem now because of it. President is a bit of a different beast, but we’ve had many Dem Senators, governors, etc over the years.
Richard Guhl
@Kropacetic: if the election gets thrown to the House, each state delegation gets one vote, in which case Trump wins.
rikyrah
@New Deal democrat:
That you have the White Whale as tossup…:)
Martin
Cowards.
416-122. Trump gets increasingly desperate toward the election, driving more and more of the edges of the GOP to either stay home or to flip in a last-minute moment of doubt, and driving Dems to historic turnout. I base that in part of Dem fundraising numbers. More and more insiders dish on Trump as we go. They’re not brave enough to risk their careers so it’ll be a torrent of ‘anonymous sources’ for the next 2 months. The peasant uprising is happening.
Undecideds will break strongly for Biden, just as they broke strongly for Trump in ’16. That was a change election, and this is another change election. We squeak out a victory in Texas, much as Obama did in Indiana in ’08.
Trump will try and steal this, but will have fewer toadies willing to go to prison to do so as their own calculus kicks in and they realize that they can’t cheat enough to win and decide to not face off against a Biden AG.
Dems will squeak out the Senate, but not a ton of progress in the House due to electoral maps. We pick up a bunch of statehouses to allow some easing of gerrymandering after this census.
Martin
@janeform: I wouldn’t assume that in the next 2 months that Biden/Harris don’t have some expression of how they will hold election tampering accountable if they win. Maybe it’s a question in the debates, etc.
I think that’ll slow some things down.
Joseph A Miller
Every day, on Daily Kos, I post a HUGE amount of information on how to get out the Democratic vote. Every. Single. Day. I have given $$$ to the Democrats this year (and will give more) and I’m doing Postcards to Voters. Here’s the GOTV info:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/1/1974190/-We-Are-in-a-Struggle-to-Save-America-Get-Out-the-Vote-is-Our-SACRED-DUTY
Mike in NC
Governor Roy Cooper is popular here and has a big lead on Dan Forest, who’s Lt Gov and another Trump toady who wanted to rush to reopen everything in July. I also think Thom Tillis is toast since all he did for the last six years is suck up to Fat Bastard.
Another Scott
@Joseph A Miller: I popped over there, for the first time in ages.
It’s a good list. Thanks for putting it together.
But it’s a bit overwhelming. People (me included) have short attention spans for things on computer screens these days. Maybe do a short “fact of the day” type of thing (like Drum at MoJo has started doing recently), and include a pointer to the larger list?
I appreciate your enthusiasm and agree that voting is the way to get the future we want to see.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jeffro
@jonas: funny…this is my low-end estimate for Biden/Harris ;)
Jeffro
@Ohio Mom:
@WaterGirl: It would be interesting if everyone put in their final EV best-guesstimate a week before the election.
karensky
I live in Philly. For years the Republican Legislature has worked to drag the Commonwealth back to the 1850’s except for fracking. I have been almost solely focused on volunteering with PADems to get as many Dems elected to the legislature and it is looking pretty good right now.
Biden and Harris ticket is great for PA but it is still pennsyltucky in many counties. The PA Dems are doing good outreach for the general election related to how to vote and easing up the state house races. We have a good governor and good and lively Lt Gov.
So, I am feeling good about PA the freaking EC but it will be tight.
)
Jeffro
@burnspbesq: You know, I’ve heard that… ;)
WaterGirl
@Jeffro: That is probably better timing than the day before.
On the day before, we will all surely be a bundle of nerves, possibly lots of challenges between commenters – pistols at dawn!
Barry
@Kropacetic: If the House votes for President, each state delegation gets one vote. It would be a mess.
hawwingo
@Ariobarzanes: Delurking to add to what Another Scott posted. I am texting for Biden/Harris. We use an app called ThruText for texting and one called Slack to get assignments and communicate with the campaign and other texters. Assignments have different purposes (e.g., guaging support, checking registration status, recruiting volunteers) and can be national or aimed at specific states. I find it a lot less stressful than phone banking.
PaulWartenberg
I figured on a few things:
here’s my map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Y6vy2
Karen in SoCal
@WaterGirl: I’ve done text banking for Jaime Harrison. It’s done through a portal (TruText or something like that) so your number never shows up.
Llelldorin
Here’s my guess: https://www.270towin.com/maps/gwDLG
I think the map at the top isn’t likely to be correct, but it is the correct map to worry about—if we lose thanks to overconfidence, suppression, and/or general malfeasance, that’s what it’d look like.
WaterGirl
@Llelldorin: I think you didn’t get your version of the map saved – that link gives me the original split from up top
You have to hit the button on the page that says “reset map” and then start making your changes. Then it sticks.
If you can do that again and supply the link again, I’ll put it up. thanks.
*I should have had that with the link up top. I’ll add it now.
rikyrah
@Martin:
Anyone who has us getting the White Whale is ok by me :)
HinTN
Pfui, 338 blue
Ruckus
@Big R:
What is the one thing that has held consistent over the last almost 4 yrs? 1st my calling him shitforbrains and that being appropriate. 2nd his earning that has lost him support almost everywhere. He lost the popular vote last time, he won by the electoral college by the skin of his and vlad’s teeth. 3rd he’s fucking nuts now and he shows this every time he opens his mouth. His financial support has dried up. 4th yes the visible support he has is loud but it is very thin in most areas. 5th a lot of areas that were red before are barely pink now.
My point is a lot has changed for the better over the last 3 1/2 yrs, because a lot of people have seen how bad he and his republican supporters are. That’s not to say this will be a walk in the park but if we work at it the likely hood of him catching that second wave is slim indeed.
Ruckus
@Martin:
This is also about the way I see it. His support is very loud but a millimeter thick. He’s shown what can happen if he wins and that scares a lot of people, a lot of whom voted for him last time. The requests for ballots and registrations to vote are up in many places from what I’ve seen, people are pissed the hell off.
DistrictXBill
That has to be the most awkward damn map. I’ve been using the NYT intergraphic map. Much easier to play with…
https://tinyurl.com/NYTECMap
TXSwede
352, with an outside chance at 406.
Here in Texas my house is focusing on turning the Texas Lege. If Tarrant County can get the five seats that seem possible, Dems will have a voice in redistricting and then Texas really will be in play. Also, Sisters United Alliance turned the Harris County judiciary in 2018, and is focused on Tarrant, Dallas and Bexar this time.
Mo MacArbie
Hell if I know what will happen, so I used artistic license.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
My map:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/1R6YN
If Biden can take Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, that gives us a floor of 272 EVs. As long as we hold those three swing states, we can afford to lose the others, including FL, MI, NC, and NH.
(Donating and posting signs)
Floor Map, more optimistic map to follow.
piratedan
word I’m hearing is that AZ is a lost cause for the GOP, with Trump pulling his media ad buys. Kelly is, by the tracking and polling I’m seeing, crushing McSally in the polls. Her negative ads on Kelly are downright insulting and her positive ones about herself are filled with provable lies. This may have significant repercussions in the other races, AZ Congressional district 6 now appears to be getable and the state house and senate could be in play as well. Plus items like the corporation commission and a new school funding initiative is also on the ballot, The school ballot is a different one because Arizonans keep passing budgetary relief for the schools and the GOP lege keeps stealing the money. So, this time they crafted a bill that tries to bypass the processes that the GOP has used to keep schools in perpetual panic mode.
So, if AZ is lost from the GOP column, what else does he go to steal EC votes?
WaterGirl
@DistrictXBill: So is that your map filled out at the link? It doesn’t look finished, unless I’m missing something.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
That was my “floor” map, where we eek out a victory.
Here’s a slightly more optimistic take. This is where I think the race is now. Look at how many EVs are toss-up or lean R! With some good momentum, we could see a wipeout!
https://www.270towin.com/maps/Qlgj4
WaterGirl
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I added a note to your previous one to say that it represented your floor, with a more optimistic one to follow.
Bobby Thomson
Yeah, not happening.
WaterGirl
@Bobby Thomson: What’s not happening? Arizona going blue? PA going red?
Or that particular combination?
Llelldorin
@WaterGirl:
Ah, my mistake. https://www.270towin.com/maps/DWwl2.png
km
I won’t make a map (sorry!) but I’m texting for several groups (Indivisible, Biden/2020Victory, Flip the West, Fight for NC) plus some specific campaigns. I’ve also phone-banked a little, donated a lot, and my usual side-gig of running an Indivisible group. (We’ve had remarkable fundraising for campaigns & groups this year.)
Regarding text-banking, there are several platforms in use right now and you *do* want to be trained. Your phone number won’t show up on any of the platforms I have used (ThruText, TextOut, Spoke (used to be Hustle), OutVote). Most of the programs work better on desktop than on a phone. Some organizations use Slack to assign texts and help volunteers figure out issues, some ask you to be on a Zoom call. Texting is a lot better than it was in 2018 (imho) though the experience varies depending on the group you’re working on. Training programs fill up fast, so good idea to sign up as soon as you can if you want to do it this year, though maybe the Biden campaign has a lot of capacity.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@WaterGirl: Thanks – you’re the best!
Spinoza Is My Co-pilot
@piratedan:
I see AZ pretty much exactly as you describe, all the way down the line on your comment.
I’ve lived in AZ now for 4 decades (most of my adult life) and I’ve worked on campaigns in every election cycle. This time I’m volunteering for Mark Kelly, and he’s been consistently out-polling McSally at a much higher level than Sinema did in ’18 when she (narrowly) defeated McSally.
My House district is 6, and though it’s a bit of a stretch, seems there’s a decent chance Dr. Tipirneni (D candidate) boots incumbent Freedumb Caucus fascist Schweikert. Which would move our state’s House delegation from 5 out of 9 Dem to 6 of 9 (no other House seat looks like it might flip either way this time).
It certainly does seem like the Trump campaign actually does look at polling (which has Trump down to Biden at nearly the level McSally’s down to Kelly) since it appears they’re abandoning AZ. Both Biden and Kelly should win in AZ, otherwise polling means nothing. I don’t think that’s the case.
WaterGirl
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: That was pretty funny.
It will be even funnier if yours turns out to be right.Never mind, just looked at the exact numbers you arrived at. We do not want it to be that close!!!
WaterGirl
@Llelldorin: Map is in there now, thanks!
WaterGirl
@km: Thanks for all the information about text banking.
Might you be willing to write up a little something so we can feature text banking, and have kind of a q & a for folks who might be interested, but have never done it before?
If so, please let me know!
The Oracle of Solace
I have a map, but don’t know where to send it. It’s 352-186 Biden, with the “blue wall” states plus Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida on our side. What am I doing? I made and published a YouTube video trying to discourage third-party voting, or what is called over at LGM “wank voting”.
HinTN
@HinTN: Ok, I figured out what I was doing wrong.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/o4Z47
Of course, today it’s 312. Sigh…
WaterGirl
@The Oracle of Solace: If you put a link to your map in the comments, I will make the actual map appear in your comment. :-)
Would love to see your YouTube video!
km
@WaterGirl: I’ll see what I can do. :) One thing though – all the campaigns are really looking for phone bankers right now.
WaterGirl
@km: Great! Sooner is better than later. :-)
Maybe I can find someone who has done a lot of phone banking and can be enthusiastic about that, to be featured in a different post.
The Oracle of Solace
@WaterGirl:
Well, here’s the link to my map. And here’s the link to my video. I hope you find both interesting!