The play is simple.
McConnell is likely betting that he can get 50+Pence for a reactionary.
He can lose no more than three votes. Murkowski (R-AK) already seems to be saying no.
— Yashar Ali ? (@yashar) September 19, 2020
He can afford to lose two more. His marginals are in bad shape especially if someone, like Romney who has no reason to be loyal to Trump, decides to be an institutionalist as there are a lot of marignals who need a golden ticket.
- Collins (R-ME) is down in recent polling.
- Gardner (R-CO) is down in recent polling.
- McSally (R-AZ) is down in recent polling.
- Tillis (R-NC) is down in recent polling.
- Graham (R-SC) is tied in recent polling
- Ernst (R-IA) is in a toss-up
- Daines (R-MT) is in a toss-up
McConnell is betting that somehow a deeply divisive nomination fight that highlights reproductive rights and the ACA will mobilize more Republican voters than Democratic voters.
I think he will be wrong.
And if he is, he is making a lot of very vulnerable GOP Senators walk the plank for an action that is quickly reversible.
Democrats have a very simple counter-power threat that they can credibly wield against the vulnerable Republican incumbents.
If there is a confirmation before 1/21/21, then 8 + 1 will equal 13.
If there is a confirmation after 1/21/21 then 8+1 will equal 9.
Organize for 13 while making every single Republican incumbent shit a brick when they see the polling on Tuesday morning and read about surge fundraising for Democrats over the weekend.