Don’t listen to the Church of the Savvy members whining ‘What does it matter… ‘
And this was not just a Friday night & Saturday, it was Rosh Hashanah.
The Trump campaign raised $210 million over the entire month of August (which included their convention) https://t.co/rlYZ2l8hn6
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) September 20, 2020
Small-dollar donors have now given $100 million on ActBlue since 8 p.m. ET Friday, investing in candidates up and down the ballot and orgs on the front lines of the impending judicial confirmation fight. The grassroots is ready to fight to honor Justice Ginsburg’s legacy.
— ActBlue (@actblue) September 20, 2020
The money Democrats have raised in the last 24 hours will provide additional tracks of media to campaigns already on the air. Guarantee you there were Dem House campaigns unable to afford TV until, say, Week 2, who'll now be able to get up in Week 6 or Week 5. Huge difference.
— Greg Pinelo (@gregpinelo) September 19, 2020
Uh…what? There’s 6 weeks left. That’s a ton of time to buy more TV & digital (& w Trump doing so little it’s available), & even w the USPS screwed up, campaigns can do a lot more mail; they have the money now rather than having to wait until Oct 10 to cover the costs of mail. https://t.co/jZklEGvjex
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) September 19, 2020
…be able to spend now on mail that they wouldn’t be able to w money that came really late, etc.
Also, campaigns on the bubble, like A-Z or ME or CO, this may be the stake in the stake in the heart that allows the DSCC, Dem superPAC’s, etc to go hunting in more states. It…
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) September 19, 2020
It may also give a campaign tight on money the resources to do more polling & data work, & if it shows a closer race than donors would expect, & they can describe a path to victory, they may be able to convince people & especially institutional spenders to invest in their race.
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) September 19, 2020
Ruckus
I know people said that Amy McGrath has little chance against mcconnel and therefore we don’t need to waste money there but mcconnel has to go if at all possible. Sure he may not be majority leader but if he’s still there he’ll likely be minority leader and be nothing but sand in the gears. We, in my mind should go after every seat in the senate. We have thrown a huge amount of money at this election and at candidates, not pacs. Whatever we can do to change/eliminate the DC political bullshit show and have an actual government, now that we have a lot of momentum, we need to keep that pressure up to maximum.
RaflW
Part of why I’m giving to literally 100 or more grassroots candidates is that the $50 to $250 each gets is hard money. That’s money a State House candidate can put towards field efforts. Clipboards and door knocks (or what substitutes for that as/where appropriate due to Covid). Or local ads, literature printing, etc.
The big Senate races matter too. But it’s clear that a lot of money is moving there. WI House Dist 31 or whatever? Imagine if ten grand fell in Liz Lochner-Abel’s lap. That much money per minute was probably going to Sara Gideon at the peak this weekend (not a bad thing, per se, but is it strategic?).
Anyway. Carry on, everyone. I think we all get that this is the one where we are playing for all the marbles. Good night.
eta: I am giving to US Senate races also. Bollier and Greenfield are my Midwest favs, as a fellow I-35 corridor resident.
rjnerd
RBG tributes
I struck out on finding a vigil in Boston to join, apparently it was at one of the smaller courthouses in one of the neighborhoods. Instead I organized a memorial event. The British have a unique system for sounding bells. Called change ringing, its a system of patterns. Its equal amounts of music and mathematical group theory worked out in real time.
Unfortunately, all the belltowers are silent now, as it takes one person per bell, is mildly aerobic, and often takes place in small rooms in the tower, with the ringers standing shoulder to shoulder. So I organized a “socially distant” event on handbells. Four of us gathered on a somewhat windswept deck, and rang for about 40 minutes nonstop. Here is a short clip from the end
https://youtu.be/_35lMT8RzYM
On handbells, Sunday 20 Sept 2020, in Foxboro Mass, in 40 minutes, a quarter peal of 1264 Bob Major was rung
1-2 C. Perry
3-4 E. Hansen (conductor)
5-6 J. Del Papa
7-8 L. Dickerson
In honor of the life of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg – may her memory be for a blessing.
This wasn’t the only one to happen, a collection of memorial events has a regularly updated list of the performances.
If you are a fan of classic whodunits, Dorothy Sayers “The Nine Taylors” has ringing and a bell tower as a major plot device. Otherwise http://nagcr.org has more details.
And while typing this up, I had a fine and mildly evil thought. For the US bicentennial the British people presented the nation a replica of the bells of Westminster Abbey. They are a set of ten, with the heaviest just short of 3,000 lb. They are known as the “Congressional Ring”. Casting about for a place to put them, they wound up in the tower that was part of the old post office, dubbed the “Nancy Hanks Center”, and are currently under the jurisdiction of the National Park Service. With the passage of time, the building got a new purpose. Unfortunately the sign on the front says “Trump”, yup the hotel. The bells are still there, and its the NPS, not the hotel who controls their use. They are still rung, but I have no idea of the current schedule.
I think it would be a fine thing to arrange for a memorial performance to take place on those bells. And it should be a full peal (>5,000 rows, takes 3 hours and a few minutes on those bells) I doubt 45 knows the bells are there, but it would be something that would be heard for a mile or more from the tower.
Arclite
I wonder how much of a difference ad buys make at this point. Not saying don’t do them, but aren’t people pretty hardened in their choices already? Isn’t it a matter of getting out the vote?
Major Major Major Major
@Arclite: it matters more the smaller the race, I believe.
NotMax
@Arclirte
Two points.
1) They belay the impression a candidate is sitting back and coasting.
2) Coattails. Can serve to tip the balance in downticket races.
Kattails
@Arclite: Jim Wright (Stonekettle on Twitter) relentlessly nags people to vote every single election, every vote matters, dogcatcher, judge, local races all matter, every single time. Those smaller races rarely have enough money to do much advertising, even small mailings. I must say that there are times when I really don’t know enough to know who to vote for in the local primaries; nor have I gotten worked up about, say, executive council seats. So my current take is that any money at any time that helps us become better, more responsible citizens is all to the good.
elm
Poor Nate Silver thinks $91 million dollars don’t matter but counting NYT headline width does.
I guess eventually you do become the villain.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
@elm: How many divisions does the Times have?
Sab
@rjnerd: That’s lovely. It’s been 45 uears since Ilast heard change ringing.
opiejeanne
@rjnerd: Very cool, thank you for sharing the link. I played in a handbell choir for a few years. I don’t understand change ringing, but ringing those bells in the old post office tower for 3 hours would be hilarious and awesome, and you know who would hear it if he was in the White House and be so damned pissed that he couldn’t do a thing to stop it.
opiejeanne
@rjnerd: One of the Father Brown mysteries had a bit about change ringing, but they didn’t go into detail about what change ringing is. The leader of the group gets bumped off, and the viewer doesn’t mind because he was such a nasty person.
mrmoshpotato
Cole’s inappropriate late night snack sounds excellent.
opiejeanne
@Kattails: We get a voter pamphlet with statements from almost every candidate on the ballot, and for the few races that are harder to decipher I go to the League of Women Voters as well as the county Democratic website. Sometimes I end up just googling the candidate for the non-partisan positions, if there’s no other way to figure out who to vote for, ike for school board. Amazing sometimes what pops up about some people.
The recent Washington primary ballot there were a couple of candidates who identified themselves as Trump Republicans, because just saying they were Republicans didn’t have enough impact.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@mrmoshpotato: Didn’t your mother teach you that having shit like that before bed will give you nightmares, like an orange clown living in the White House, stuff like that.
206inKY
I shared my thoughts on McGrath at the bottom of David’s post on Saturday. I think his assessment of McGrath’s chances is exactly right. It is not going well, and it makes me angry.
With AZ and CO so far ahead, I think everything depends on NC and ME. I also think MT is flying under the radar as an opportunity.
But McGrath is swimming in money and using it poorly.
People have not forgotten this horror-show interview, where she was asked about her Trump-friendly campaign kickoff.
Direct quote: “I’m simply pointing out that a lot of the things that [Trump] promised are being held up by Senator McConnell.”
And this: “Who stops him along the way? Senator McConnell is the one who stops him each and every time.”
And this: “Paid family leave is another one. He’s talked about it in two State of the Union addresses, that he’s wanted to do paid family leave and he’s going to bring it, he’s going to have it happen. Who stops it? Senator McConnell. He will never let anything go through.”
And the coup de grace: “I was very torn over the nomination of Kavanaugh. And let me just say that I’m not somebody that listened to all of hearings. I’m not on the judicial committee in the Senate. I was worried when Kavanaugh was nominated because I felt like his stances on unions and women’s reproductive rights and some of those things were pretty far out of the mainstream. At the same time, there wasn’t anything that disqualified Judge Kavanaugh from becoming a Supreme Court justice. So that’s where I stood. I mean, I didn’t have to make a vote one way or the other, but there was nothing to disqualify Judge Kavanaugh.”
Tell me again, why did the national party point a firehose of money at her in the primary?
We’re not idiots. Beshear is the opposite of Trump in every way, and actual Kentucky voters got fired up. I know because I knocked on hundreds of doors and posted about it here. Charles Booker or Matt Jones could have done the same. Yet Schumer chose the biggest dud imaginable for this race, and that’s why she’s toast despite running against such a vile and deeply unpopular senator.
Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman)
I don’t have a lot to spare, but I do have some.
I’ve kicked in $50 total to Biden over the last 2 weeks and this morning donated $10 to Jamie Harrison.
I’ll kick in some to Gideon, Cunningham, and Greenfield when I get next month’s check.
As far as McGrath goes, I live in southwest Indiana right on the KY border so local TV airs a ton of Kentucky political ads.
While Mitch’s own ads aren’t all that great, the PAC ads attacking McGrath are vicious.
McGrath’s ads aren’t very inspiring either and I haven’t seen very many PAC ads going after McConnell.
Oddly enough there aren’t a whole lot of Indiana ads showing on local TV other than generic feel good ads for Governor Holcomb.
I would have expected to see more of a showing from IN Democrats this year.
Eljai
@206inKY: Thanks for sharing your perspective. I don’t know that much about Kentucky, though I do have a friend in Lexington. I’m pretty much on board with candidates doing what they need to do to win in their respective regions. But from what you describe, McGrath’s answers lack conviction to an appalling degree. Voters pick up on that sort of thing. I’d rather give my money to other races at this point and work to put McConnell in the minority.
Sebastian
Annie, have you seen Dana G Smith’s Medium Surface vs Airborne article in the CVD19 series on Medium? I found it very interesting and helpful. The entire series is quite well researched and written
https://elemental.medium.com/the-most-likely-way-youll-get-infected-with-covid-19-30430384e5a5
prostratedragon
@Ruckus: My first postcardstovoters assignment is to KY for McGrath. Kentuckians can go to GoVoteKY.com; the registration deadline is Oct.5 at 4PM local time.
prostratedragon
@rjnerd:
“Casting about for a place to put them, they wound up in the tower that was part of the old post office, ”
HAAAALLELUJAH!
Maybe we should write our Congresspeople.
By the way, what you organized sounds absolutely beautiful and moving.
oclib
@opiejeanne:
when it comes to non-partisan, judges, school board…etc…. I go to the Christian voter guide….works well for me …sometimes I have to leave it blank…..I should say, I go opposite of the guide….
VFX Lurker
Fixed.
prostratedragon
@opiejeanne: A member of Congress has heard this suggestion, couched in delicate terms of course.
prostratedragon
In a race of Dud vs. Mitch McConnell, Dud will get my vote every single time. But that’s just me. (Admittedly I’m not a KY voter. But I can recall races where I’d have preferred other choices, but still knew what I didn’t want to see happen.)
206inKY
@Eljai: I hear you. I totally support moderates selling out when needed. To my eternal shame I supported Bloomberg for about three weeks, even though my heart said Warren and my head said Biden. But McGrath is appalling. I feel bitterness toward some in this beautiful community of jackels who jeered my warnings about McGrath, even comparing me to Bernie Brod, and assumed it was about gender. It’d not. I believe that Matt Jones (beloved bluegrass sports radio host and author of Mitch, Please!) could have won. But McGrath and McConnell both filed complaints with his employer. And the money from national donors overpowered the field. When will we learn to listen to state parties when recruiting?
206inKY
@VFX Lurker: Nope. It was a nailbiter primary despite MASSIVE outspending by McGrath, using out of state dollars. If money doesn’t matter, why bother donating to Gideon, Cunningham, etc? Here it was a Dem primary that y’all shaped, not the general.
206inKY
@prostratedragon: I’m OBVIOUSLY voting for McGrath. Shit I’m even phone banking. Doesn’t mean dud will win. The response is simply not the same as governor in 2019. It’s fucking demoralizing.
Ruckus
@206inKY:
Thanks for the info on McGrath.
That pisses me off. I know that mcconnel is such a shit and the party/rich bastards are going to slam her but to have such an opportunity and to blow it with the money she has….. I guess that my comment above is worthless but I didn’t realize why she was doing badly. I really, really wanted to put his ass out to pasture, he is such a shit snake.
Gvg
It’s not a given that McConnell will be minority leader. It used to be when the majority lost, they wanted a different leader. Lately it’s been different, but if the GOP loses the senate, I would have blamed McConnell in their shoes. I wish their was some way to encourage fracturing his support within.
SectionH
@opiejeanne: oh please don’t.
Change-ringing was Dorothy Sayers. Nine Tailors. Sorry, but fact. I’ve read all the Father Browns too, and mostly seen BBC’s adaption. But also read GK Chesterton’s actual stories, so please just don’t confuse the sources. You may confuse a gentleman with a waiter of course.
Kathleen
@206inKY: I live in Cincy so I see all the commercials and I agree that she was a terrible campaigner.
SectionH
@Eljai: Send $ where you want, but I’ll just mention that Mitch kinda gets nuts when he’s in trouble.
He did get the R Paul idiot elected – but that was because he spent most of the R Senate budget on him, and shorted 2 Senate seats, and we got Dems elected.
I will find you links if you need em – I think VA was one – but Mr S made lemonade back then.
Mitch is so not infallible. Worry him about money. That’s his entire actual world.
Srsly, every dollar to Amy is a good thing, because it fucks with that bastard’s mind.
I need to see where KY gerrymandered places are.
debbie
@Ruckus:
But wouldn’t the humiliation of “minority leader” be worth it?
different-church-lady
I think you mean Cult of the Savvy.
SectionH
@debbie: FFS, he’s been Minority Leader before.
I mean, he’s one of our major enemies, and you haven’t paid attention to him?
VFX Lurker
Money can’t save weak candidates. Joe Biden spent the least amount of money per-vote and beat better-funded-but-weaker candidates like Bloomberg, Steyer and Wilmer.
Kentucky voters have agency. They chose McGrath.
opiejeanne
@SectionH: I know what I saw; I watched it about a month ago. It was the BBC adaptation, it was change ringing, and at the end of the program we got to hear them ringing the changes.
I read up on change ringing last night before I fell asleep. I get it now, and a part of that Father Brown episode that I didn’t understand before now, makes perfect sense.