Next: Kamala and Lizzo had some fun on Instagram over the weekend.
Here are the highlights from the CNN townhall. I tried to find the full video, but no luck.
And I just love this ad:
Open thread
by TaMara| 131 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, Biden-Harris 2020, Open Threads, Politics
Next: Kamala and Lizzo had some fun on Instagram over the weekend.
Here are the highlights from the CNN townhall. I tried to find the full video, but no luck.
And I just love this ad:
Open thread
Comments are closed.
WaterGirl
Wow, that bottom ad is terrific!!!
TaMara (HFG)
@WaterGirl: I think it’s going to be a series of ads
Kent
Good stuff. They are borrowing from the LeBron James HBO series called “The Shop” I think. https://www.hbo.com/the-shop
Benw
OT: god help me I am in the absolute worst, dumbest training class in the history of time
Fuck EVMS
Leto
HarrisBiden (carried on Harris’ FB feed) live on FB right now in Wisconsin. Intro guy doing his thing. They’re at a manufacturing place.WaterGirl
@TaMara (HFG): Happy to hear that. They are good.
In the first one, I didn’t notice names popping up as they speak, but that’s good because surely these guys are not actors.
edit: Yes, they did put the names up in the first one. Good job, Biden campaign.
Charluckles
Love me some Lizzo.
Mary G
@Benw: I remember those. I pity you.
SiubhanDuinne
@Benw:
What does EVMS mean? The couple of things Google comes up with don’t seem especially fuckworthy to me.
Omnes Omnibus
@Leto: Where is she?
WaterGirl
@Benw: Why do you had the Eastern Virginia Medical School? That’s what comes up when I try to see what EVMS means.
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: Not sure. Currently listening to Biden speak, like ole timey radio.
randy khan
There’s a bit of video going around the right-wing fever swamps supposedly showing a reflection of Biden’s teleprompter in a photo he showed to James Corden. Of course, it’s just a monitor showing him four different screens of video, but they’re convinced it’s proof that all he’s doing is reading and that he really doesn’t know anything.
(To which my mental response is that they should be careful about that, since their guy apparently can’t even read a teleprompter.)
New Deal democrat
An update on the Senate races: as of today the Tyson Group came out with a poll in Mississippi showing the Democrat trailing by only 1%: Link
This brings to 7 the number of GOP seats rated “toss-up,” *besides* the 4 lean or likely Dem pick-ups.
Another Scott
@SiubhanDuinne: I assume it’s this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enterprise_Volume_Management_System
Yeah, a boring seminar on managing computer file systems would make one stabby, I think.
Cheers,
Scott.
Leto
Just received an email from the state that our ballots are on the way. Should be here in 10-14 days. Feels like it’s cutting it close, even though it’s not.
Quinerly
Joe giving a great speech right now.
Knocking it out of the park. Went after Trump on his tax returns.
debbie
@New Deal democrat:
Do you just monitor Senate races? I heard a local reporter say that Trump’s lead in Ohio was declining, but Google isn’t helping me with confirmation.
Baud
@Quinerly:
Do you have a link?
New Deal democrat
@debbie: I do monitor the State Presidential polls as well. Unless there is a new poll that just came out in the past few hours, most recently Trump has slightly expanded his very slight (~1%) lead.
Leto
@Baud: https://live.joebiden.com/c/0921_vpremarks-wi
Benw
@SiubhanDuinne: Earned Value Management System
@WaterGirl: LOL
lord have mercy I’ve just been given homework. Dumb, dumb homework
Baud
@Leto:
Thanks. Looks like he’s wrapping up.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Leto:
I always thought the Pony Express was only out here in the West. The things you learn on Balloon Juice.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Quinerly: Wifey told me on Saturday, she’s got a problem with Biden…he talks to softly and she has trouble understanding him.
JPL
@Leto: The new
firesidechat. I found his words comforting.Benw
@Another Scott: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_value_management
It’s a way to track projects, which I don’t need a two day seminar to do, since I have the ability to add, and subtract, and A GRASP OF THE PASSAGE OF TIME (ht: Tim Minchen)
Stab stabby stab stab!
debbie
@New Deal democrat:
Thanks. I need to improve my listening skills.
Leto
@Baud: Yeah, it was a rather quick speech. Boiler plate that we’ve heard before.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: right? We’re part of that 7% who’ve had their mail fucked with; got that fancy USPS voting mailer that’s oh so wrong. I know our three mail carriers. They get to our apartment building first, then work their way through the rest of the complex. I’m pretty certain we can fill ours out in about 10 mins, and get them back to one of them so it’s virtually same day. Motherfuckers…
Another Scott
Here’s a recording of Biden’s remarks a little while ago – https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=19&v=DQ-cWVtmXcA&feature=emb_logo (32:55)
Cheers,
Scott.
Jeffro
@Benw: careful…some folks get waaay cranky if you throw an acronym or two around without explaining ;)
Baud
@Benw:
I get forward and backward confused sometimes.
raven
@Benw: Is it like Six Sigma???
Baud
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Ear volume probably set to Trump.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Leto:
I’ve voted absentee for the last 4 years and I really liked it. Not risking it this time. Election mail is bulk mail now, which doesn’t have to be delivered. I’m not sure the ballot would be delivered to me, even if I used the drop box for the application. So I’m voting early in-person
Barbara
@debbie: I do use Nate Silver’s site to look at polling data. I don’t care for Nate’s commentary, but he loads every poll he receives and provides an aggregated number, as well as letting you see the individual details. He also rates them according to his view of the soundness of their methods, but I typically ignore that. Ohio has looked close, but Trump has had a steady lead — basically, never less than 1.5%.
Leto
@JPL: Even though I know this speech, it’s still comforting. Baud was talking about how we might re-connect with voters, a few threads down. This might be a way. YouTube “fireside” chats.
Another Scott
@Benw: :-)
Hang in there!!
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Leto
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): I voted absentee for 6 1/2 years while living overseas, and at least once when I was deployed overseas. I know PA will have drop boxes so I’ll also investigate where ours will be. Also the federal judge who wrecked Trumpov’s/DeJoy’s shit wrt to the Post Office stipulated that all voting mail goes back to first class. Still, understand why you’ll vote in-person.
Baud
@Barbara:
It’s funny. A 1.5% lead for Trump in Ohio seems unsurmountable, but Biden’s 3-5% lead in other states seems worryingly close.
gene108
@Benw:
I have lost the ability to effectively track the passage of time, since mid-March.
Just One More Canuck
@Benw: Earned Value Management System? God, I fell asleep just reading that
Bostondreams
DeSantis sent legislation to the Florida legislature that essentially makes protest illegal and reducing police budgets illegal.
Fantastic. :/
Barbara
@Baud: Same as it ever was. The anxiety for me is the result of knowing how many states are willing to engage in voter suppression.
gene108
@Baud:
It really comes down to how badly will Republicans cheat, in order to keep Trump ahead by 1.5% or close Biden’s 3% lead, which I think is a cause for us to worry.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
It would be interesting to know what lead would be necessary to counter voter suppression tactics. I’m sure it’s out there. My gut tells me at least 5% or so. Are you very worried about those 3-5% leads?
I remember seeing a poll putting Biden ahead in Arizona by 9%! That’s a typically Republican state, so hopefully that lead holds. Winning Arizona would narrow Trump’s path to the EC, correct?
Benw
@Baud: left/right is a conspiracy to confuse and distress m
ETA: I mean the directions, not politics ;)
debbie
@Barbara:
Thanks. Hopefully, it will continue to diminish.
Kent
It’s because no one trusts Ohioans or the state government of Ohio anymore. Been burned one too many times.
Alison Rose
I love that Shop Talk ad–seeing Black men talk about the importance of having a Black woman on the ticket is great.
Also, good thing they disallowed comments on the video–it currently has 217 Likes and 196 Dislikes. I fucking hate people.
Benw
@raven: did a quick Google and it looks like yeah
WaterGirl
@debbie: @New Deal democrat:
New Deal democrat, if you add the URL to your state of the race website before your next comment, then people could click on your name to see that whenever they want.
If you know that already and aren’t interested in doing that, please disregard.
Benw
@Another Scott: thanks!
@gene108: LOL!
@Just One More Canuck: LOLZZZZ
1 day down, 1 to go
WaterGirl
@Jeffro: I am one of the people who get slightly cranky about undefined non-well-known acronyms.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: We know which way the thumb is on the scale.
WaterGirl
@Benw: What you hear:
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah
Matt McIrvin
@Bostondreams: It also legalizes running over protesters with your car! Basically all Heather Heyer’s killer would have to do is claim he was fleeing from a mob.
Alison Rose
@WaterGirl: Especially when people tell you to use Urban Dictionary, and if you’ve ever used that site you know there is a very good chance any acronym you look up is gonna have something X-rated as one of the options…
mrmoshpotato
@Just One More Canuck:
Hahahaha*snore
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Bostondreams:
Basically, it sounds like anybody at a protest can be arrested by association if somebody there is violent. We already have laws on the books dealing with that. This is fascism and I don’t understand how this could be constitutional
Bostondreams
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
Read something along the lines of ‘making something that is already illegal just super illegal doesn’t reduce the incidence. It just creates more felons.’
and maybe that’s the point… :/
mrmoshpotato
@Bostondreams: Fascist Florida. And, wait, isn’t it the state houses’ jobs to draft legislation?
Either way, fuck ’em.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Leto:
Really? That’s great news! Still, I’ll vote in person anyway. I haven’t noticed a mail delay where I live
Quinerly
@Baud:
Listening on Echo. Outside. Grown up speakers ? “Alexa, play Tune In MSNBC Outside Speakers.”
Cable was carrying it. I’m outside and explaining to my cactus/succulents that it’s time to start coming in for the winter.
Kidding aside, you can stream all cable news on Tune In app. I go weeks without ever watching this stuff. ?
Benw
@WaterGirl: I know right!!?
And it’s on Zoom and my camera’s off and my Balloon Juice tab is RIGHT THERE
Matt McIrvin
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): Arizona has 11 EVs, so it’s a significant help. And, yes, that’s one that’s swung Republican for a long time. Obama never won it. Bill Clinton did win it on his second go-around, but before that you have to go all the way back to 1948.
The strongest regional political trend of the past 30 years or so has been the West getting more Democratic. It’s almost under the radar and by the time it’s happened it feels like it was always the case. Note that in this region the state polls were also dead accurate even in 2016.
mrmoshpotato
@Alison Rose: Hahahahahahahaha, so true.
I use Acronym Finder.
Matt McIrvin
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): All they have to do is get one plainclothes cop in there to smash a window and everyone else is committing a felony.
WaterGirl
@Benw: If they wanted you to really listen, they shouldn’t have made it so boring.
Jeffro
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): I actually have to vote early – working as a poll observer for the local Dems and we’re not allowed to vote on Election Day. Who knew? So I’m going to vote early in-person here at the county office.
James E Powell
@Barbara:
538’s latest poll for Ohio is a Rasmussen showing Biden +4.
538’s adjusted poll average has Trump +0.5 and that’s with allocating undecideds evenly.
My heart breaks for my beloved home state.
Jeffro
@Bostondreams: and legal for people to run over protestors, too.
I’m sure it’s okay if the protestors are blessed ‘Second Amendment’ activitists, too, right Ron?
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): It isn’t, but court don’t decide issues like that until there is a case in front of them.
Matt McIrvin
@Jeffro: Well, they could stand their ground and shoot the driver, obviously! Automobile-on-gun duel and it’s all 1000% legal!
Jeffro
@WaterGirl: you’re good, I’m just trollin’ ;)
Jeffro
@Matt McIrvin: What a state, what a world.
japa21
@Alison Rose: There was one I saw, maybe here, where they were talking, then it cut to video of Trump saying ,”I’ve done more for black people than anybody except Lincoln”, then cut back to them and they are all laughing.
I like they are targeting the AA male community.
TaMara (HFG)
@Quinerly: You know, I check morning to see if he’s doing a live event I can post. You’d think since I’m subscribed to his youtube, facebook and email I’d get a heads up on these things. ?
Alison Rose
@mrmoshpotato: Ooh, that’s neat, never heard of that one. I’ve found Wikipedia can be helpful too, and less potentially NSFW than UD :P
japa21
@James E Powell:
That is weird as Rasmussen is tilted GOP. Heck they have Trump with 51% approval nationally.
Quinerly
@TaMara (HFG): ?
I have new neighbors. Trump supporters. (not a fit for my inner city neighborhood)
Have 2 sets of very good outside speakers wired to a receiver with Echo Dot.
I enjoy broadcasting MSNBC 24/7.???❤️?
frosty
@Benw: As a former Scheduling Engineer, earned value is a pretty good way to track how your progress is going against the budget and schedule. Useful for big jobs (billion dollar refinery construction) but maybe not small ones. Although I used it on everything.
That being said, it doesn’t take two days to figure it out. And if it’s two days of PowerPoint you have my sincere condolences.
Kay
@James E Powell:
I use Ohio as a kind of measure for a group of states. Put IN on the far Right end of this group, then OH, then probably PA, then MI, WI, Minnesota. So if Biden’s even or slightly up in Ohio then you can be more confident he’s up enough in the rest as you move Left. So Clinton being back so far in Ohio didn’t bode well for MI and PA. If Trumpster is slipping in Ohio then he’s slipping further in the others. So Obama ’12 won OH by 3 and PA by 6 and MI by 10. Like that. It’s not perfect but it’s info.
Libbys Person
The barber shot ad may have been filmed in Durham NC about 2 weeks or so ago. I remember a little conversation on the Durham Democratic Women FB page about it. If so, that barber shop is very well known in East Durham.
frosty
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): I’ve played with 270toWin. Winning AZ along with a couple of others that are trending blue means Biden can lose PA and FL and still win the EC.
Kay
@James E Powell:
I forgot Illinois. OK start over… :)
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Bostondreams:
Probably
Sab
The fancy neighborhood at the top of our hill with all the old rubber baron mansions decided to put a memorial onto their traffic island back after 9/11. Before it had a mailbox and some flowers. Now it has a big rock with an engraved statement on it, and a big flagpole with a flag and a spotlight for it.
Drove by today. No half staff for them. Flag up at the top same as usual. Every other flag I have seen is lowered.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: I think Nate Silver’s model has a lot of correlations exactly like that baked into it! It’s one of the ways he fills gaps between state polls.
Kay
The Trump supporters are trying to impeach both Husted and DeWine, yet they have to go out there and kiss their asses.
Husted is reduced to peddling overpriced Trump merch. What a great job he has! So fulfilling being beholden to this sleazy real estate crook and his awful family.
Benw
@frosty: “And if it’s two days of PowerPoint you have my sincere condolences.”
Accepted thanks!
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
Well, ancient, wizened Ohio political people had it first. Be happy if he’s struggling to stay even in Ohio because that’s a good sign for the rest.
There’s this “bellweather” county in OH I’m obsessed with and we just happen to have a very friendly young man running for the US House in that district. When they poll his race they also poll Biden v Trump. Biden was up a month ago. I haven’t checked nor do I know if they’ve polled again but I’ll ask.
Sab
@Kay: Yes. Husted is way too right wing for me, but I have had a soft spot since he stood up for gay parents adopting. He’s an adoptee, and he wanted all kids to have homes and parents. I have a stepkid who spent had an early childhood out of Dickens in bad fostercare.
J R in WV
@Benw:
I had to look EVMS up — OMG what a potential for cluster-fuq in the project management arena!!! But so attractive to top level managers!
Glad I retired from project management before that hit the IT news sites!!!
Are you going to have to waste a lot of time filling out forms full of irrelevant data for the EVMS system, as opposed to actually developing data structures, use cases, doing work to complete the project ??
Best wishes, don’t let them destroy your interest in the actual real task…
J R in WV
@J R in WV:
EVMS in the IT world could be “Earned Value Management System” which tracks actual investment in a project…
From Wikipedia:
Sounds like a whole ‘nother layer of irrelevant data tracking to load onto project managers, as opposed to allowing them to work on the project itself.
SO GLAD I never had to fill out those forms~!!~
ETA: Can YOU tell from their comments who actually managed IT projects? I can!!!
cain
@Kent:
Ungrateful too given how much we’ve helped save jobs there. They are more interested in keeping white male majority – understandable – but I guess they’ll just continue to be poor and illiterate white male majority but it’s okay as long as the darkies also don’t progress.
But they are going to progress – black and latino middle class is going to continue to grow. (ironically, some will turn republican cuz they don’t wanna pay taxes)
Benw
@J R in WV: luckily my lab has a pretty good project controls office to deal with the software entry stuff. I still have to pull together the overall schedule and budget, but then I get to spend most of my time working on the technical stuff with my group, vs maybe 20% useless BS
Princess
@James E Powell: I don’t believe Biden is winning OH. It’s either a) just an outlier b) I am wrong and he’s crushing it or c) Rasmussen is throwing this one out to tempt Dems to pour money and energy in OH rather than somewhere more winnable. I’m inclined to think c)
Rasmussen closely cooperates with the GOP. I answered a poll of theirs years ago and answered it truthfully, but identified myself as a Republicans. For at least a decade afterwards, I was on GOP mailing lists which, given my zip code, had to be because they told them
ETA: All that being said, I was driving in northern Indiana last weekend and was shocked not to see one single Trump sign (or Biden sign but that was not shocking). Signs for school board and city council but nothing for president (or governor). So who knows…
Quinerly
I’ll leave this here. Contains quotes from Atwood.
Both Coney Barrett’s father and her husband’s father were also involved PoP.
https://www.newsweek.com/amy-coney-barrett-people-praise-group-inspired-handmaids-tale-1533293
germy
Princess
I’m pretty sure that, given the line about defeating China, the person who wrote Loeffler’s ad about Attila the Hun, confused Genghis Khan with Attila. Because “destroys Western civilization” is not usually something Republicans boast about.
Quinerly
Coney Barrett at the WH today. Reported that she is McConnell’s first choice. Campaign thinks her Midwest roots/background will help in Midwest states. Pence likes her as a pick. From Indiana. (I think I read somewhere she would be youngest SC Justice in history)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-21/trump-zeroes-in-on-coney-barrett-as-likely-supreme-court-pick
J R in WV
@J R in WV:
Early in my career, the big accounting project I was recruited for was put on a major pause after Arthur Anderson androids were fired. I was a valued IT resource, and so was given new tasks until the big project came around again.
I spent a lot of time developing a list of tasks, degree of difficulty, time required, etc. Then my manager said “That’s too much time, make it shorter!”
So I did, and started working to convert their major cost benefit system from CICS / VSAM data to DB2 data and CICS I/O…
When the major $$ system project came around, I was yanked from the (still not complete) VSAM -> DB2 project to resume work on the $$ project. Turned out that the VSAM -> DB2 project ran over time by exactly the number of weeks I originally determined would be required.
What a surprise !!!
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Act Blue
has raised $39 million dollars in past 24 hours
has raised $99 million dollars in past 50 hours
Omnes Omnibus
@Princess: They oppose the Enlightenment and the Renaissance; why not the rest?
mrmoshpotato
@Kay: “Booooo to protecting ourselves against a deadly virus transmitted via airborne droplets! Booooooo!!!!!!”
If it walks like a suicidal cult, and talks like a suicidal cult, and sucks their Dear Leader’s Soviet shitpile mobster conman ass like a suicidal cult…
frosty
@Princess: All the Trump signs you didn’t see are in my neighborhood in South PA. A new one just went up on my street. I think I’m up to 20 visible on my half-mile loop to the post office.
Oh, and not a single Biden sign.
Splitting Image
@Princess:
Ohio is winnable for Biden, but not as winnable as some other states Biden is focusing on. Pundits have used it as a bellwether for ages, but it has always leaned GOP. If Biden does take it, it will be a landslide.
I doubt that Rasmussen is faking poll results to influence the Democratic party. Biden can win without it, but no Republican has ever won without Ohio and if polls start consistently showing Biden ahead, Trump is finished.
All that said, the likeliest situation is that Rasmussen just isn’t that great of a polling outfit and this is a bit of an outlier.
mrmoshpotato
@Princess:
Only the best people.
germy
@mrmoshpotato: problem is, they spray their droplets on the rest of us.
mrmoshpotato
@germy: That too, but I’d also like them not to be in a suicidal cult masquerading as a political party. But that would require coming to terms with the Russthuglicans lying to them for 40+ years.
WaterGirl
@germy: I don’t think that’s a good ad at all, but I am clearly not who they are aiming at.
Kay
@mrmoshpotato:
We haven’t had any problem with anti-maskers in the office. We started with zero tolerance, though. We had one early on and kicked him out. He wasn’t offended. He sat in his car in the parking lot and called me anyway. See? We can be reasonable about this. He has to sit in his car. Such is the price of liberty.
J R in WV
@mrmoshpotato:
Do we suppose that Republicans have been under the total control of the Russian state intelligence corps for 40+ years now?
Or just the past 6-8 years… Hard to say from uppa holler inna countryside, what do the big city folk say?
germy
@WaterGirl:
i think it’s a terrible ad.
Kay
It took 40 years but okay. If we started cracking down on white collar crime we could all save a hell of a lot of money, because these people are a disaster and it will cost untold billions to repair what they have destroyed. You will pay and pay. Your children will pay. And their children.
An ounce of prevention…
germy
@Kay:
I don’t trust Cyrus R. Vance Jr., but I agree if the trump family had been investigated and prosecuted sooner we might not be in the mess we’re in.
Miss Bianca
@Kay:
LOL! Yay, Kay!
Horatius
@Leto: Received my ballot today. Will vote this week.
mrmoshpotato
@Kay: Also “I’m trying to make masks in America great again”
Because I’m sure masks were awesome during the pandemic a century ago!
mrmoshpotato
@J R in WV: Sorry. I tend to use “Rethuglican” and “Russthuglican” interchangeably at times. My mistake.
Fuck the Rethuglican party for 40+ years of “Tax cuts for the rich will fix everything!”
TS (the original)
@Splitting Image:
There are two later polls on 538 – One has trump +5, and the latest (sep 11-15) has trump +3
CarolDuhart2
@Baud: I’m not sure that lead will hold. We are pretty fired up here, and there will be record Af-Am turnout. If there is a surprise on Election Night, we just might be that. Despite the rural reddening, there are plenty of Democrats still here in Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. We just need to turn out in Obama level numbers. Remember he did carry our state twice.
lamh36
When Kamala met Zoey
https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1308051078508937221?s=20
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl:
It’s not a good ad, but it is a Good ad.
SiubhanDuinne
@lamh36:
That’s adorable. Zoey reminds me a little bit of Parker Curry, the little girl who was entranced by the portrait of Michelle Obama.
Another Scott
@germy: “Paid for by the NRCC and Bob Good”.
He’s such a weak candidate, he can’t afford his own web ads.
Cheers,
Scott.
Miss Bianca
@lamh36: That’s not your niece Zoey, is it? Or is it? : )
lamh36
@Miss Bianca: LOL…nope not my Zoe. That during her time in Philly last week
Elizabelle
@germy: RE the Liberty U candidate Bob Good: It’s memorable. He’s not just standing there jawboning or talking with prop voters. Good as family man (it’s his son in the headlock).
Of course, for us, we are thinking “Jim Jordan” and “Denny Hastert” and “Jerry Sandusky.” Which might occur to a few Dr. Webb voters in the district.
The Kelly Loeffler ad about being to the right of Atilla the Hun — I thought that was a parody. Right down to the big smiles on Air Force One.
It’s not. Wowee. Guess it’s tongue in cheek at how she’s portrayed by Democrats?
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: ha!