I put Espy on the list just because someone asked but the race is actually pretty close, and there’s not much money being spent on it. So I’m upping the thermometer. You can see everyone we are supporting here.
Mike Espy, Mississippi Senate
I think Thom and Suzie could get hurt pretty badly by the Supreme Court nonsense so let’s raise agains them too.
Sara Gideon, Maine Senate
Cal Cunningham, North Carolina Senate
On The Road – ?BillinGlendaleCA – Santa Anita Wash – It’s all gone now.
WaterGirl
In the last hour, I have received voting or voting & census encouragement/ information from:
UIC (University of Illinois, Chicago) and University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign).
UIC always encourages their people to vote, but I have never seen anything like that from the University in Champaign.
Our local democratic party. They were quiet as church mice when i was working my butt off for Obama in 2008-08, and not much better in 2012 and 2016. They have been writing more than once a week, for a couple of months, asking for help with literature drops, etc.
Even institutions that are normally quiet seem to understand what’s at stake.
My right-wing neighbor across the street and my elderly republican friend both think Trump is off the rails, and the neighbor offered to loan me the Mary Trump book. I think Trump is in big trouble. The only way we don’t have this is if they are willing to steal it in plain sight. We have to be so strong that even if they do that, they didn’t think big enough.
I can’t donate again until I get paid on 10/1, but these are some examples of our collective work paying off.
Jon Marcus
Not to be defeatist, but do you think “Suzie” will be dirtied up by the SCOTUS craziness? She’s got one of MoscowMitch’s “Get Out of a Vote” cards.
I’m afraid that might actually help her. “See, I really am concerned, and I even voted that way once! (even though it made no difference…)”
WaterGirl
@Jon Marcus: I’ll be interested in seeing what Doug and others think.
I imagine that if you’re already on to Susan Collins, you will still be on to her, and if you aren’t already on to her, there’s really nothing Collins could to do get you to see who and what she is.
I think it doesn’t matter. What do others think?
Soprano2
Did you read the Atlantic article? They’re definitely willing to steal it in plain sight. I think Trump is willing to risk starting a civil war to stay in power. That article gave me a little glimpse of what it must be like to be Adam, and I didn’t like it, not one little bit.
Haroldo
Done, done, and done.
piratedan
@Jon Marcus: unsure as to whether to fall on the side of “she’s shown us exactly who she is for the last three years” or to put my faith in the low expectations of my fellow citizens….
In here, I think we can all safely believe that’s she is still Miss Furrowed Brow 1976 and is the same charlatan she ever was.
opiejeanne
Sent a little to Espy.
Thanks for making this so easy, DougJ.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Someone else told me that got a Republican while phone-banking and heard the same thing. Extremely anecdotal of course, but every little bit of encouragement helps.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I just saw this. These people are both crazy and scary.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl: I think she made her bed with her Kavanaugh vote.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/16/20868754/susan-collins-brett-kavanaugh-maine-senate
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Professor Bigfoot
I recently learned that Mississippi has the highest percentage of Black voters in the nation— which makes me think that maybe, just maybe, Mike Espy might be able to pull this off.
I’d given to his campaign before, but thanks for the opportunity to do it via the Juice, Doug.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I think Collins is a goner, and I think she knows it.
MomSense
@WaterGirl:
Everyone I know is saying she only said she would vote no before the election after Mitt Romney was a yes. Again following her pattern of only giving crumbs to progressives when it doesn’t matter.
Yutsano
@Professor Bigfoot: I have to see if I can find it again, but there’s a certain percentage Hyde-Smith has to get from white voters in order to win. It was something like if she gets 80% she wins, 75% it’s likely, 65% it can go either way, and anything below 65% she’s toast. I’ll try to see if I can locate that exact statement.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: I hope so. The article Another Scott just linked to says Collins is up by double-digits in some polls.
That doesn’t square with what I’ve been hearing, but everything is crazy these days, so who knows. ?♀️
Baud
@WaterGirl: That article is from Sept. 2019.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl: That Vox article is from a year ago. :-) Sorry I wasn’t clear about that.
Cheers,
Scott.
evap
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Sorry, but I don’t buy it. The Trump campaign people are crazy, of course, and I think this is just their out-of-touch-with-reality fever dreams. I really can’t buy that GOP governors and electors would go along with this. And I also don’t believe that even the right-wing Supreme Court justices would install Trump in this manner. I am guessing that most of them view Trump as a crazed idiot.
I could be wrong, in which case I move to Plan B (move to Ireland).
John Revolta
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I’ve thought about this a couple of times. It’s a move that’s so under the radar that nobody’s brought it up, much…………..but these guys are def in “It’s so crazy it just might work” territory.
Nora Lenderbee
I was editing an article in WIkipedia the other day, and my auto-replace changed “Trump” to “asswipe” in the article references. Hahaha.
Omnes Omnibus
@evap: Co-sign, but for the Ireland bit.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: Where are you going to move to?
mali muso
Shout out from Virginia where I did my civic duty today by both voting (yay!) and getting my flu shot. Donated to Espy earlier and thinking to do so again.
Marcopolo
@Another Scott: This. I don’t do predictions anymore but with ME having ranked choice voting this election I am thinking Collins is toast.
And Doug, if you are reviewing comments, please consider some kind of fundraising post that goes beyond the US Senate (and even beyond the US House). A lot of these R arseholes get their start in local & state politics. Furthermore, a lot of the awful cases that wind up in front of the Supreme Court also begin at the state legislative level.
As an example of what I am talking about, here is a Daily Kos fundraising list. It starts with Biden & 7 competitive US Senate races then adds another 47!!! state legislative races in AZ, MI, MN, NC, PA, and TX
Edited to add, if you are a BJer living in one of these states consider making a contribution to a candidate or candidates listed in your state. I have made campaign contributions to 11 state legislative candidates in MO. These folks don’t get the love or attention of the federal races but their impact 10-20-30 years down the road can be really substantial.
Another Scott
@John Revolta: Personally, I think it’s more like in the W days when someone in his administration floated the idea of postponing the 2004 election because Teh Terrorists were going to kill us all in our beds otherwise. It needs huge pushback, yes, but it’s not going to happen.
That’s not to say that we have to be worried about them trying to steal close races that go against them – but that would happen regardless (see 1960, 2000, etc.). We have to do what we can to make sure that the wave is large enough that there are few close races.
Cheers,
Scott.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@evap: @John Revolta: @Omnes Omnibus: I’ll take deep breaths and ignore the silliness as much as I can.
opiejeanne
@evap: How will you get in? Aren’t we all still excluded because of Covid-19? Or have the Irish decided to let us in?
WaterGirl
@Baud: @Another Scott:
Thanks, Baud. It was right there in front of me in the URL. I just didn’t look.
Baud
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Not to minimize the reality of the threats, but it’s also important to remember that the media knows that these types of articles get clicks when written in a way that raises our apprehension levels.
WaterGirl
@Marcopolo: I’m pretty sure we have BJ thermometers for the best bets in the NC legislature, and for the TX legislature.
Check the All 2020 Fundraising link in the blue box up top.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: I am stubborn; I am staying put.
West of the Cascades
Pitched in to Espy – the last FEC reports on line (through 6/30 for that race) show he had $680,000 on hand vs. $1.2 million for Hyde-Smith, and that Espy had actually spent more through that date than Hyde-Smith had, so big thanks to Doug for highlighting a race where a little more money might go a long way.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: Is the cheese really that good?
Marcopolo
@WaterGirl: There have been thermometers for state parties but not for the actual state house & senate candidates from those states.
So when I put my Biden bumpersticker on my car I did not take my Warren sticker off. They are proudly displayed side by side. Cause I am still a Warren Dem:
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: You have no idea.
opiejeanne
@Baud: I have had some Wisconsin cheese, which is why I usually buy cheese from other places. California Humboldt Fog, yum, among others. I’m not really impressed by most of Washington’s cheeses, and Tillamook is nothing special.
Marcopolo
@West of the Cascades: Amazingly, as of last quarter Hyde-Smith was like the 95/96th worst fundraiser of all the Senators. The only ones below her in fundraising were members who were retiring. Espy raising over $1M over the past few days should provide him with as much $$ as she has atm.
opiejeanne
@Omnes Omnibus: LOL!
debbie
@evap:
The Atlantic is not some lunatic fringe rag. Knowing Barr’s thinking process alone is enough to know this could be a legitimate concern.
Marcopolo
@opiejeanne: If you wants some good cheese & are near StL check out these guys: Marcoot Jersey Creamery.
Cheese curds to die for. And yes, I do have one of their “Udder Cheeses Don’t Compare” t-shirts.
Soprano2
@Dorothy A. Winsor: To me the scariest part of the Atlantic article was about how they studied balloting in the primaries without challenging anything. They noted a lot of errors where absentee mail-in votes were counted when they thought perhaps they shouldn’t be, and made notes about what they could challenge. I see a massive effort to challenge so many mail-in votes that they can make Trump win even though a majority of people voted against him in the state!!! That’s scarier than the “get our own slate of electors” stuff. They’ve been planning to do this since spring, it’s not something they just thought up last week.
evap
@opiejeanne: My spouse is an Irish citizen and we have a house there. I’m guessing that they will let me in with him, but who knows.
WaterGirl
@Marcopolo:
Here’s the one for eleven (11) NC state legislature candidates:
Balloon Juice Flip NC (split between ll NC state legislature candidates)
I’ll see if I can find the TX one. I’m pretty sure it’s there because I’m the one who asked for it.
WaterGirl
@Marcopolo: State Senate in NY:
Samra Brouk NY SD-55
Geminid
@WaterGirl: The Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll released Monday showed Gideon up 46-41. A Quinnipiac poll released Sept.15 showed Gideon with a 12 point lead. The Real Clear Politics average of six polls showed Gideon with a average 6 pt. lead. The Vox writer who said “what few polls there are show Collins with a lead” is either lazy, or thinks his readers are lazy. Or both. But now it turns out the Vox writer was so lazy he wrote the article a year ago.
Marcopolo
@WaterGirl: Must have missed this NC one entirely. TY for bringing it to my attention. I humbly stand corrected.
And though I live in StL I have given to Samra 3x. She sends TY notes & I give follow up donations to folks who do that. And I also graduated from U of R, though I haven’t been back to Rochester this century.
WaterGirl
@Geminid:
Made me laugh.
WaterGirl
@Marcopolo: I probably only remember it because I asked if we could have a Flip NC and a Flip TX based, both about the legislatures.
I’ve written to Doug asking if I made the whole thing up about Texas. :-)
Having Dem statehouses in TX and NC would be a big Joe Biden deal.
Citizen Alan
@Yutsano:
IIRC, in 2008, Obama would have won Mississippi with 15% of the white vote. He got 11%.
J R in WV
@evap:
I suspect they might make you quarantine for 14+days, but otherwise you will qualify easily. Just my opinion… best of luck.
If I had jumped on it when I was 18yo I may have qualified for Swiss citizenship, but of course in 1968 it didn’t occur to me at all…
ETA: We have contributed to both Mike Espy and S. Gibson vrs Collins in the past, but that won’t bump the B-J totals at all…
opiejeanne
@evap: Maybe, eventually. I took a look at their rules and you might be able to go now, but I wasn’t sure. My family and my husband’s have been gone from Ireland for too many generations, I think.