One of the tasks I have at Duke Margolis is to support the Covid Exit Strategy team. I have a daily task of looking at the numbers and trends and finding something interesting to say before my first cup of coffee. With the exception of a three day break in mid-August, I have been doing this every day since mid-May.
We categorize states into four categories:
Green — Trending Better
Yellow — Caution Warranted
Red _– Trending Poorly
Dark Red — Uncontrolled Spread
These colors are derived from CDC and White House criteria for reopening which are a set of criteria for new cases per million, testing positivity rate, hospital capacity, and testing numbers.
My comment for this morning was a line graph of states in Green by day:
As of this morning, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are Green.
New York and New Jersey had been Green for most of August and September. Southern New England would bounce in and out of Green every couple of days.
If anyone had asked me in May to put a 50:1 bet on no more than 5 states being Green on September 23rd, I would have declined the bet.
Right now, I just can’t even.