I’m planning on doing a lot of House fundraising the next couple weeks. Here’s a fun list that New Deal democrat put together. Here’s the pitch:
Regardless of the shenanigans that Donald Trump, William Barr, GOP State legislators, and the GOP insurgents on the Supreme Court may pull in the wake of the November 3 election, ultimately who is the President of the United States next January 20 is going to be determined by the House of Representatives when the next Session first meets earlier in January.
Specifically to the point, if either several GOP State legislative chambers, with the assistance of the GOP majority on the Supreme Court, order a stop to the counting of ballots, and that stoppage leads those State legislators to declare that the Trump Electors are those selected, nevertheless the House of Representatives has the power to accept a challenge by the competing slate of Biden electors, and to count the Biden Electors’ votes.
In that scenario, however, the House will have 50 votes, 1 vote per State delegation (DC doesn’t get a vote). So, whichever party controls 26 or more State delegations in the House would be able to form a majority.
Currently the Democrats have a majority in only 21 State delegations in the House of Representatives. In order to achieve a 26 delegation majority, several House seats in at least R+9 districts must flip, so it is important to build in some insurance.
The below list of 15 races in 7 States is built from two sources: Charles Gaba’s “Federal Final 50,” which includes 11 House seats that would add 4 of the 5 necessary State delegations, plus the Cook Political Report’s list of House Race Ratings, including 31 Districts currently held by the GOP, with ratings that vary from “lean GOP” to “likely Democratic.”
Most of these races are rated “toss-up” or better…
Fifteen for Flipping
Update: It looks like Pelosi agrees!
https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1310304749359714304
You can see all the candidates we are supporting here
James E Powell
Is there a link to the quoted article?
geg6
I hope my rep, Conor Lamb, is on the list. He needs some financial help.
https://www.timesonline.com/story/news/2020/09/26/lamb-parnell-exchange-blows-healthcare-first-debate/3551560001/
Joe Falco
Hold on, our shenanigans are cheeky and fun. Their shenanigans are cruel and tragic, which makes them not shenanigans at all really.
DougJ
@James E Powell:
It’s from an email a reader sent.
New Deal democrat
@James E Powell:
New Deal democrat
Also, looks like Pelosi agrees with me:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1310304749359714304
Lacuna Synechdoche
Tell me if this is a good idea: I’m thinking that maybe House Democrats should prepare for the no longer unthinkable event that the Presidential election still remains unresolved on Jan. 20, 2021 by electing Biden to be Speaker of the House when the next House session begins.
That way he’ll already be in place as Speaker to take over if we still have no President-Elect on Inauguration Day.
Cheryl Rofer
I’m not a Politico fan, but it’s the only place I found an article on Pelosi’s appeal to turn as many state delegations Democratic as possible because of potential electoral shenanigans. Decisions would take place in the House, but they would go by state, not individual representatives. So Democrats need majorities within the state delegations.
New Deal democrat
@Cheryl Rofer:
@Cheryl Rofer: That’s what this list does. The total 15 would flip 7 delegations, so that Democrats would have a majority of 28 of the 50 votes.
BTW, all but 3 of the 15 are included in Gaba’s list, where they were also included as necessary to get to a majority in 26 House delegations.
lowtechcyclist
Actually, the Dems control 23 delegations at present, with 26 in GOP hands, and PA tied.
(I counted them up about a month ago, and since then, I’ve seen that breakdown reported in several places.)
James E Powell
@New Deal democrat:
Thank you.
SiubhanDuinne
Not a toss-up state by any means, but I’ve seen some rumblings that Katie Porter’s House seat (CA-45) may be in jeopardy. Is this true? Should we be raising money for her?
PJ
@SiubhanDuinne: This is what 538 shows: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/california/45/.
Those polls are all over the place but the most recent one shows Porter +8 for registered voters and +2 for likely voters. Real Clear Politics says the race is a toss-up. That does seem too close for comfort.
Humanities Prof
@lowtechcyclist: This is, I think, true.
But that 23 currently includes Michigan, I think, which could be a bit of a problem. At the start of the current Congress, Michigan’s delegation was split 7-7 (which I think is the best position the Dems have been in there in a long time). They currently control the Michigan delegation because Justin Amash left the Republican Party, giving the Dems a 7-6-1 advantage. But Amash’s district is as deep red as they come. Are there any seats in Michigan that are viewed as pickup opportunities?
Mousebumples
Happy to see my district on the list! (WI-08) I’ve been planning to do a big donation (*by my standards) for my “birthday present to myself” later this week, and I might just direct it to her.
Thanks for this!
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: Politico says 22D, but, you know, Politico…
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/27/pelosi-mobilizes-democrats-house-decision-on-presidency-422359
(Emphasis added.)
Someone should do a gif from The Shining where the blood pouring down the hallway is blue.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
SiubhanDuinne
@PJ:
Thanks. DougJ, could we put up a thermometer for her in the next couple of days? Even though her losing the seat wouldn’t make a difference in the CA delegation, she’s a good one and we don’t want to lose her.
James E Powell
@SiubhanDuinne:
I don’t know if she is in jeopardy; I have not seen or read about any polls. But it was a Republican district before the 2018 Blue Wave and might be reverting.
I’m seeing a Kate Porter in 30 seconds TV ad frequently during sports programming. I have not seen anything from her opponent.
DougJ
@SiubhanDuinne:
We raised a bit for her last spring. I’ll try to do something for some incumbents again soon (we did stuff for the incumbent toss-ups last spring).
Faithful Lurker
I’m in. I’ll add to the fund next month too.
Mary G
@SiubhanDuinne: Martin knows much more than I do, because he lives in her district, but Republicans are furious and humiliated about losing all the seats here, which they had for years, and have been spending serious money trying to get them back. If women vote they mostly won’t succeed and my guess is that she’s safe, but more money is always nice, but maybe not needed. The president is loathed and Uncle Joe is loved, so probably she’s OK.
The execrable Darrell Issa moved one district inland to CA50, where they reelected Duncan Hunter even though he was indicted. Unless there’s a huge wave, he’s probably going to get back in. Ugh. His opponent is saddled with a grandfather who was one of the bad guys at the Munich Olympics. I am hoping Biden will find him a place in his administration.
H.E.Wolf
@Lacuna Synechdoche:
I’m always perplexed by intricate plans that revolve around demoting Madame Speaker Pelosi, one of the canniest political leaders we have.
She’d be a fine interim President, should such an unlikely need arise. No need to demote her in favor of a white man.
evap
Done! Although I am not worried about any of those scenarios actually happening; I think they are all extremely unlikely. It’s the voter suppression during the election that worries me.
Early voting in GA starts two weeks from today!
SiubhanDuinne
@James E Powell:
@DougJ:
@Mary G:
Thanks to you all for the information.
Just Chuck
“Shenanigans” involving interfering with a legitimate election should result in the outlawing of the political party orchestrating them. I’m completely fucking serious. If you consistently break the rules of democracy, you no longer get to participate. You press on others’ necks with your boot, we curb-stomp you with ours.
Jeffro
WaPo has an article up on the blessed ‘undecided’ voter – “people for whom neither man is right for the job” or some other nonsense. Git outta here with that stupidity and privilege.
There go two miscreants
I’m in for a chunk. Couple of other comments:
1 – Thanks for doing these; I find it’s a very useful way to contribute. The emails from the campaigns are not a useful guide — they are always so DESPERATE!! Does that stuff really work? It just annoys me. I know I can unsubscribe, but generally I haven’t, in the hope that some of them are informative. The only ones that are seem to be from the state Dem parties (like WisDems and NC Dems).
2 – If it’s not obvious, this voting by state is yet another antidemocratic feature of our system, even though it is rarely needed.
Baud
@Jeffro:
WaPo has generally been better than NYT, but NYT has had a good couple of days. WaPo needs to step up its game.
oldster
Okay, I kicked In a couple hundred.
I don’t like the odds of those Dem candidates in R+10, R+11 districts. That’s a damned long shot, and I try not to throw my money away on long-shots.
But this is important. If we lose the Republic, a few hundred bucks will provide me slim comfort.
JMG
@Jeffro: There are three basic types of “undecided” voters. 1. The largest group. People who pay very little attention to politics and so actually aren’t tuning in to an election until very shortly before it takes place. 2. Terminal procrastinators, who put off thinking about voting as long as possible. 3. Liars. People who know damn well who they’re going to vote for, but believe saying they’re undecided shows them as careful, high-minded and more judicious than mere partisans.
Mary G
Hey Doug, I just checked and the last poll has Darrell Issa only up by one point 46-45 over Ammar Campa-Najjar in CA50! The San Diego Union Tribune, as red as the WSJ, says it’s anybody’s guess who’ll win. Ammar was on Obama’s first list of endorsements last month and would be a much better use of Juicers’ money than Katie Porter IMHO.
Apparently the large numbers of active duty and retired Marines and Navy people living there are not loving being called losers and suckers by our alleged president. Hoocoodanode?
Marcopolo
I made small donations to the folks on 3 separate state legislative candidate lists yesterday (there was a fair amount of overlap but still a good number) so I am currently tapped out. However, I have already given to Alyse, Kathleen, Gina, Candace, and Hillary this cycle. Fairly confident Gina & Candace are locks atm. And I would love to see Alyse Galvin term out Don Young.
If anyone wants to check out candidates for flipping state legislatures…
DLCC List 48 for 10 (48 candidates to flip 10 legislatures
Daily Kos List of 47 state legislative candidates (some overlap with the DLCC list)
Data For Progress/Crooked Media Fuck Gerrymandering list of 16 state lege candidates (once again some overlap)
UncleEbeneezer
Great, one more nightmare scenario to add to my constant anxiety.
Jeffro
@JMG: #3’s the largest group ;)
Fair Economist
@oldster:
The suburban shift has shifted a lot of districts to the Democrats, and with Biden we are looking at a D+4 electorate, so they aren’t necessarily such long shots. Some are, some aren’t.
Lacuna Synechdoche
WaPo:
That’s a signal that come election day, the undecideds are going to break for Biden.
I mean, if you think neither guy is right for the job, but you’ve already given one guy four years to do it, then you’re pretty likely to eventually say to yourself, “Time to give the other a guy a shot.”
Obviously, anyone who is still considering Trump for another four years in office is a flaming idiot. But even morons such as these are still subject to human nature – i.e., impatient and sick of the status quo.
P.S.: I’m not actually recommending anyone go read yet another article on people too dumb to choose between Biden and Trump. I’m just pointing out that if the assumption/thesis of the headline is true, then that’s ultimately good news for us.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
I’m sorry, maybe I’m not up to speed, but why is there all this talk of the election being decided in the House of Reps? Biden is likely going to have enough EC votes to win. On what basis could the Trump admin sue to stop counting and what makes anybody think the courts will go along? That would undermine other Republicans on the ballot too, not just Biden. There are more races than just the presidential one and I’m not convinced the GOP is going to destroy themselves just to save Trump’s ass. There will eventually be a time when Trump is gone
WaterGirl
@oldster:
Yep! Plus, I’ll add two more things.
WaterGirl
I love Katie Porter, she does great work in those hearings and elsewhere. I can understand why the Rs would target her. If her race isn’t a sure thing, I hope we put up another thermometer for her ASAP.
Betty
I am thrilled to see DePasquale as a toss-up in what has traditionally been a very red district. The current rep is Scott Perry, a real Trumpista. I voted for DePasquale and, fingers crossed, my mail – in ballot is accepted.
guachi
Historically, Cook “Lean” races have an 89% chance of the “Lean” party winning. “Likely” is about a 98% chance of winning.
Though there is a “wave” component where the side that is likely to flip the most seats gains more than you’d anticipate. Cook is conservative (small c) in its ratings.
Cheryl Rofer
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): Belt and suspenders
Lacuna Synechdoche
H.E. Wolf:
So am I, but making Biden speaker wouldn’t be a permanent demotion. It would be a temporary gambit for an extreme situation. And realistically, I suppose it’s too early to worry about now. But if the presidential election is still up in the air when the time comes to select the next term’s speaker, then it’s a ploy worth considering.
Pelosi would get her job back either way. Either Biden would become president and give up the Speakership (as he would be Constitutionally required to do) or he doesn’t, at which point there’s no longer any utility in having him in the Speakership role, so he resigns and passes the torch back to Pelosi.
I guess what I’m saying is that, at the age of 80, Pelosi may not want the Presidency, if it comes to that – though I’m sure she’d choose that over another Trump term. So why not put the guy who does want it, and whom the party chose, in the line of succession to get the job if there’s no other successor on Jan. 20?
But ultimately you’re right – it’s an unlikely scenario and probably not worth discussing until, and if, we get to the point where an unresolved election on Inauguration Day becomes a plausible scenario.
Marcopolo
The thing I’m missing right now in this election cycle is the steady stream of US House polls that Nate Cohn did w/ NYT/Sienna in 2018. They must have done 20 or 30 different races & if you were really obsessive they had it set up so you could watch in real time as the calls were being made. The big takeaway from that was how few calls were actually answered—like only 5-7%.
Generally speaking, that 2018 polling was pretty accurate. The two things that pollsters cannot account for (though they make estimates) is new voters (there’s no prior info so they probably aren’t in the universe of voters the pollsters are using) & turn out level. I’m betting on high turn out & a good number of new voters. And I hope that skews election results towards Ds. Just have to wait for Nov 3 for answers to those questions.
Jinchi
Wow the process in this country just gets less democratic the deeper you go, doesn’t it.
Time to switch to popular vote for the president, and what the heck, let’s throw in Supreme Court justices as well.
CCL
@WaterGirl:
Yup. That’s my thinking for continuing to send dollars Doug Jones’ way.
Embra
@Betty: Amen to the PA-10 race. I live in Gettysburg, and the tea-partier Scott Perry was our rep until redistricting put him further east. Our new district is predominantly Republican, but I would take joy in seeing DePasquale defeat him. Happy to see this race included on the list.
H.E.Wolf
@Lacuna Synechdoche:
With the greatest respect for your differing viewpoint, I don’t care for plans (either in real life, or in imaginary “what if?” games) to bar a woman who is 2nd in the Constitutionally mandated line of succession, directly after the vice president, from the presidency.
When I encounter such thought experiments, I’m reminded that many people – present company excepted, of course – don’t like it when women earn, get, and keep power. See Porter, Katie, elsewhere in this thread, for another example.
If a thought experiment has, as its outcome, taking power away from a powerful Democratic woman, I’m uncomfortable with it.
And Joe Biden, if he’s who he’s seemed to be for his whole adult life, would likely be uncomfortable taking that game-playing path to become president. It would be “sharp practice”, which is not the behavior of a person of integrity.
H.E.Wolf
@Lacuna Synechdoche:
P.S.: To be fair, I must disclose my position, which is to work my butt off to ensure a blue wave this November which will make all previous blue waves look like kiddy-pool splashes. :-) Thus making thought experiments happily moot!
P.P.S.: Your ‘nym always delights me when it appears. /language geek
randy khan
I’m not really convinced there’s much of a scenario in which we go to the House. The Constitution says you go to the House (and Senate for VP) when no candidate has a majority of the electoral votes that are cast. While it’s conceivable that some states could be tied up by baseless challenges, the effect would be that those states don’t vote, reducing the needed number from 270 to 1/2 of whatever number of votes actually are cast plus 1. I suppose you could have a tie (which has happened exactly once, and then under a system where the President was the 1st place finisher and the VP the 2nd place finisher), but that’s an incredible long shot, even if some states don’t cast votes.
And, despite what’s in the OP, the House does not have sole control over whether state slates are approved. The process is that the states certify the votes, and then the House and Senate, meeting in joint session, count those votes. If there’s an objection, it takes both houses agreeing before the objection will be heard, which in a split Congress means no objections would be heard. Of course, if the Dems control both houses of Congress, it’s a different story, but then the Dems would decide which slates are accepted and, again, you almost certainly wouldn’t get to the House.
randy khan
@Lacuna Synechdoche:
FWIW, the official procedure if the Speaker becomes President is that she has to resign her position first because you can’t hold both spots at once. And presumably that means she’d have to resign her seat in the House; although there’s actually no rule requiring the Speaker to be a member, it’s unlikely they would elect her if she weren’t one.
WaterGirl
@CCL: I think that Doug Jones has a decent chance of winning, regardless of what the polls say.
I suspect that his views on a lot of things are a lot more conservative than mine, but i really admire him.
WaterGirl
@randy khan: I haven’t researched it personally, but this link re: Nancy Pelosi certainly shows the same thinking that is represented up top:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1310304749359714304
Either way, even if it’s a hail-mars pass that we never need, imagine the good things that could come from flipping those statehouses for other reasons.
Hoppie
@randy khan: The actual wording in Amendment Twelve, which is the same as the superseded Article II, is that “a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.” Notice it does not say “of all the states voting”. So still must be 26 even if fewer vote, as I read it.
randy khan
@Hoppie:
@WaterGirl:
The majority of states is when there’s a vote in the House. For the EC, it’s a majority of votes cast.
And FWIW, I’m in favor of whatever we can do to have a bigger majority in the House, and definitely in favor of tipping the balance in as many states as possible in the run-up to reapportionment.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: You and Doug Jones probably align in most of your beliefs. And he votes with your Senators almost all the time.
There go two miscreants
Slightly OT and probably dead thread: I just went back and used the thermometer for the 11 NC House candidates. I made a contribution to all of them to be equally split, as well as a tip. ActBlue then processed this as a rapid-fire sequence of 12 charges to my card, leading to a request to verify some (via text message) and three of them were declined (I think as a result of the rapid-fire submission, but BAC doesn’t provide a reason). This is a really stupid way to handle the transaction, and I told them so. I also told them they could resubmit the declined ones; if that doesn’t happen I’ll fix it manually. I hope they use those tips for some improvements! Sheesh!