I’m getting requests to re-up the Fifteen for Flipping. I like the idea of doing some House stuff with an eye towards the presidential election. I’m going to maybe do some stuff for the state lej in PA, MI, and WI too.
Fifteen for flipping is a fun list that New Deal democrat put together. Here’s the pitch:
Regardless of the shenanigans that Donald Trump, William Barr, GOP State legislators, and the GOP insurgents on the Supreme Court may pull in the wake of the November 3 election, ultimately who is the President of the United States next January 20 is going to be determined by the House of Representatives when the next Session first meets earlier in January.
Specifically to the point, if either several GOP State legislative chambers, with the assistance of the GOP majority on the Supreme Court, order a stop to the counting of ballots, and that stoppage leads those State legislators to declare that the Trump Electors are those selected, nevertheless the House of Representatives has the power to accept a challenge by the competing slate of Biden electors, and to count the Biden Electors’ votes.
In that scenario, however, the House will have 50 votes, 1 vote per State delegation (DC doesn’t get a vote). So, whichever party controls 26 or more State delegations in the House would be able to form a majority.
Currently the Democrats have a majority in only 21 State delegations in the House of Representatives. In order to achieve a 26 delegation majority, several House seats in at least R+9 districts must flip, so it is important to build in some insurance.
The below list of 15 races in 7 States is built from two sources: Charles Gaba’s “Federal Final 50,” which includes 11 House seats that would add 4 of the 5 necessary State delegations, plus the Cook Political Report’s list of House Race Ratings, including 31 Districts currently held by the GOP, with ratings that vary from “lean GOP” to “likely Democratic.”
Most of these races are rated “toss-up” or better…
Fifteen for Flipping
You can see all the candidates we are supporting here
Open Thread: Biden Live In Grand Rapids ETA: President On The Way To Walter Reed.*
MazeDancer
So happy to see this back up. Such a good idea.
Can’t “throw it to the House” if the House won’t help Trump.
Think you should tag it onto the end of every pitch.
H.E.Wolf
Thank you for your fundraising posts, reminding us that the work goes on, no matter the headlines….
brantl
Trump having Coronavirus is going to be why he sucked crap through a straw in the debate, just watch.
Mousebumples
Will donate again to my local WI seat candidate tonight – thanks for doing this!
DougJ
Thanks everyone
BlueGuitarist
@DougJ:
Thanks Doug!
Another option: tie the 4-member Kansas delegation to take away a Republican vote. Michelle De La Isla, mayor of Topeka, is running for KS-2, an open seat because extra ridiculous R incumbent (Watkins) lost the primary. Cook, Sabato, Kos rate it at as Likely Republican, but she has raised almost as much as her opponent.
Lymie
Remind me what CREAM stands for? ??♀️
bnateAZ
@Lymie: Cash Rules Everything Around Me
New Deal democrat
Thanks for this! For anyone who may have missed it before, Here’s the list:
AK-AL: Alyse Galvin. (R+9)****
FL-15: Alan Cohn (R+6)****
FL-18: Pam Keith (R+5)*****
MI-03: Hillary Scholten (R+6)****
MI-06: Jon Hoadley (R+4)****
MT-AL: Kathleen Williams (R+11)****
PA-01: Christina Finello (R+1)****
PA-10: Eugene DePasquale (R+6)***
WI-01: Roger Polack (R+5)
WI-08: Amanda Stuck (R+7)
TX-10: Mike Siegel (R+9)****
TX-21: Wendy Davis (R+10)***
TX-22: Sri Kulkarni (R+10)***
TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (R+1)**
TX-24: Candace Valenzuela (R+9)***
*=Cook rating Likely Dem
**= Cook rating Leans Dem
***=Cook rating Toss-up
****=Cook rating Leans GOP
*****=Cook rating Likely GOP
I explored substituting NC or Ohio instead of Texas on the list, but even though Texas is the longest shot with 5 seats, it was “less worse” than those two.