Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

When I was faster i was always behind.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

People are weird.

Republicans in disarray!

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

White supremacy is terrorism.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Fifteen for flipping

Fifteen for flipping

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I’m getting requests to re-up the Fifteen for Flipping. I like the idea of doing some House stuff with an eye towards the presidential election. I’m going to maybe do some stuff for the state lej in PA, MI, and WI too.

Fifteen for flipping is a fun list that New Deal democrat put together. Here’s the pitch:

Regardless of the shenanigans that Donald Trump, William Barr, GOP State legislators, and the GOP insurgents on the Supreme Court may pull in the wake of the November 3 election, ultimately who is the President of the United States next January 20 is going to be determined by the House of Representatives when the next Session first meets earlier in January.

Specifically to the point, if either several GOP State legislative chambers, with the assistance of the GOP majority on the Supreme Court, order a stop to the counting of ballots, and that stoppage leads those State legislators to declare that the Trump Electors are those selected, nevertheless the House of Representatives has the power to accept a challenge by the competing slate of Biden electors, and to count the Biden Electors’ votes.

In that scenario, however, the House will have 50 votes, 1 vote per State delegation (DC doesn’t get a vote). So, whichever party controls 26 or more State delegations in the House would be able to form a majority.

Currently the Democrats have a majority in only 21 State delegations in the House of Representatives. In order to achieve a 26 delegation majority, several House seats in at least R+9 districts must flip, so it is important to build in some insurance.

The below list of 15 races in 7 States is built from two sources: Charles Gaba’s “Federal Final 50,” which includes 11 House seats that would add 4 of the 5 necessary State delegations, plus the Cook Political Report’s list of House Race Ratings, including 31 Districts currently held by the GOP, with ratings that vary from “lean GOP” to “likely Democratic.”

Most of these races are rated “toss-up” or better…

Fifteen for Flipping

Goal Thermometer

You can see all the candidates we are supporting here

Reader Interactions

9Comments

  1. 1.

    MazeDancer

    So happy to see this back up. Such a good idea.

    Can’t “throw it to the House” if the House won’t help Trump.

    Think you should tag it onto the end of every pitch.

  2. 2.

    H.E.Wolf

    Thank you for your fundraising posts, reminding us that the work goes on, no matter the headlines….

  3. 3.

    brantl

    Trump having Coronavirus is going to be why he sucked crap through a straw in the debate, just watch.

  6. 6.

    BlueGuitarist

    @DougJ:

    Thanks Doug!

    Another option: tie the 4-member Kansas delegation to take away a Republican vote. Michelle De La Isla, mayor of Topeka, is running for KS-2, an open seat because extra ridiculous R incumbent (Watkins) lost the primary. Cook, Sabato, Kos rate it at as Likely Republican, but she has raised almost as much as her opponent.

  9. 9.

    New Deal democrat

    Thanks for this! For anyone who may have missed it before, Here’s the list:

    AK-AL: Alyse Galvin. (R+9)****
    FL-15: Alan Cohn (R+6)****
    FL-18: Pam Keith (R+5)*****
    MI-03: Hillary Scholten (R+6)****
    MI-06: Jon Hoadley (R+4)****
    MT-AL: Kathleen Williams (R+11)****
    PA-01: Christina Finello (R+1)****
    PA-10: Eugene DePasquale (R+6)***
    WI-01: Roger Polack (R+5)
    WI-08: Amanda Stuck (R+7)
    TX-10: Mike Siegel (R+9)****
    TX-21: Wendy Davis (R+10)***
    TX-22: Sri Kulkarni (R+10)***
    TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (R+1)**
    TX-24: Candace Valenzuela (R+9)***
    *=Cook rating Likely Dem
    **= Cook rating Leans Dem
    ***=Cook rating Toss-up
    ****=Cook rating Leans GOP
    *****=Cook rating Likely GOP

    I explored substituting NC or Ohio instead of Texas on the list, but even though Texas is the longest shot with 5 seats, it was “less worse” than those two.

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