I’m not buying the bullshit about Trump’s illness might somehow help him and other Republicans. Time to throw them all an anvil. The House hasn’t gotten much attention this cycle but I think double digit gains are possible. Give here to the 14 R-held seats that are listed as toss-up by Charlie Cook. You can see all of our candidates here.
Balloon Juice House Tier 1 (14 Republican held seats that are listed as toss-up)
There’s a race close to me that’s flying under the radar but is winnable. It’s the Syracuse district held by John Katko (and the Nine Lives), who is kind of the Susan Collins of Central New York. It’s a +3 D district.
This poll was among the first to detect John Katko (R)’s upset win in #NY24 in 2014. Now it shows Biden +19 in a Clinton +3 district and Katko’s image nosediving. https://t.co/0mL2lAIbLf
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 4, 2020
Let’s raise some money for Democrat Dana Balter.
Dana Balter, NY-24
You really do rock with these posts.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
were I wearing a cap, Sir, I would doff it in your general direction
My addiction to the Act Blue ticker abides. It was at 6,973,000,000 at approximately 1:57 pm Eastern. Curious to see if it hits 7 billion late tonight or tomorrow.
Katko is infuriating because the local media lap up his BS moderate image. Unfortunately this is Dana Balter’s second kick at the can. She was a mediocre candidate with no charisma and made numerous gaffe’s that made her look incompetent and out of touch in 2018 and she isn’t much better this time around. If anyone half decent ran in this Dem majority district, Katko would be an easy pick-up; alas, we’ll have him for another term.
and so it goes and so it goes and so it goes AND so it goes…
but where its going, no one knows…..
Diamond Dogs has always been my sentimental favorite Bowie album, and since it was based on 1984 I’ve listened to it a lot in these Twitler years. So I’ll put in money from savings even though I am going to hate all the emails. Throwing them an anvil is such a great metaphor. Meep meep motherphuckers!
West of the Rockies
Are we likely to gain seats in the House? If so, how many? I’ve not heard a lot of predictions.
@West of the Rockies: I don’t think we’ll lose many, if any. I’m kind of sweating Xochitl Torres-Small’s reelection. That one seems like a true toss up. This year Torres-Small is running against the same woman she beat by 4000 votes in 2018. As far as net pickups though, I’m guessing 10 minimum, 25 max. There are a lot of close races.
She certainly sounds half-decent; and she has an interesting background.
One of the most startling (and in retrospect, one of the savviest) things ever said to me was “We all need to get as comfortable with mediocre women in positions of leadership as we are with mediocre men.” … I had to sit with that for a decade or two. :-)
Another comment that startled me was, “Men win elections because they run again after they lose their first race.”
Not every Democratic member of the US House can be, or must be, a Katie Porter or a Maxine Waters or [insert your favorite Democratic woman’s name here].
What will be helpful to the country, in the incoming 2021 Congress, is a big ol’ Democratic majority. We needn’t sneer at Dana Balter, if her victory would help that to happen.
Thanks again DougJ for spotlighting Montana earlier. Kicked in some bucks for this one too.
Just another future song, lonely little kitsch
There’s gonna be sorrow, try and wake up tomorrow.
Just kicked in $50. Thanks for the link and the shout-out to my favorite Bowie album.
RV/LV delta suggests there’s still 2-3 points to be gained from Dem turnout operations.
@West of the Rockies:
I haven’t seen a ton of analysis on the House races, but earlier in the year, projections I did see suggested that there wasn’t likely to be a lot of movement. Estimates ranged from Republicans gaining a net 5-10 seats to Democrats gaining 5-10 seats.
Two things might offer some optimism for a better outcome. First, there are a LOT of incumbent House Republicans retiring this term–more than 20, I believe. Most of them are in deep red districts, so they likely aren’t flippable, but some of the ones in more marginal districts might be. The other thing is that the general political mood in the country seems to be fairly anti-Republican at this point, which could lift some Democratic candidates over the threshold in races where they couldn’t ordinarily be competitive.
@Geminid: That’s New Mexico Representative Xochitl Torres-Small (D-Las Cruces).
So it turns out the official White House physician is an Osteopath? They can’t find a real MD? WTF?
Oh and OT an orchestral version of Mike Oldfield’s Magellan, enjoy
What’s wrong with that? I don’t get the impression osteopathy is anything to sneer at.
@Geminid: Xochitl has a great phone bank system set up. If you go to her website and follow the tabs it will lead you to signing up for it. I’m making calls for her about two hours a week. If any of you can help it could make all the difference.
By the way, her opponent is the same person she ran against in 2018. In that year, her opponent’s first campaign manager fled New Mexico when he found out a warrant had been sworn out for his arrest for domestic violence and (wait for it) sexual slavery. Xochitl is doing a great job and we really need her back.
Had this discussion with another Brit this morning, and it would appear that how an “osteopath” is trained is quite different as between the US and the UK. I’ve had more than one osteopath as my PCP over the years. They’re more or less interchangeable with MDs in the US (tho I’m not sure if all states treat them similarly). Per Wikipedia:
James E Powell
Really OT, but whatever happened to commenter Ronnie James, DO? I don’t recall seeing his nym in a while.
To the national media:
Let’s leave Dump alone. He needs to focus on getting better. Whether he leaves the hospital tomorrow with a spring in his step or comes out in a box next Friday, we don’t really need to know what’s going on in the meantime, especially since they’re just going to lie about it anyway.
Please spend your time figuring out when they started covering up this outbreak in the Very White House and how many people have been exposed due to their reckless disregard for the safety of….pretty much everyone, including yourselves.
@James E Powell: Good question. I hope he’s doing ok.
@James E Powell: He’s active at LGM, last commenting there ~4 hours ago.
@JanieM: Yes, Osteopaths are legit here in the US. Don’t confuse them with say…Naturopaths who are, indeed, quacks.
Kind of a hard question to ask, because basically anyone who believes that Trump’s Covid case will help him essentially forfeits their credibility, but has anyone credible actually seriously floated the idea that it would help him?
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@DougJ: I too really appreciate your posts and how easy they make “curated” giving. Thank you!
Thanks for the news on NY-24.
Any polling on NY-23? That’s incumbent Tom Reed (R-Trumpistan) vs. Tracy Mitrano, up for her second shot.
The district is a gerrymandered joke, diluting several urban Dem strongholds in the middle of the state by stretching 125 miles west to Lake Erie.
My guess is that Reed is safe. But I’d love to hear otherwise. I gave Mitrano a couple hundred just because I hate him so much.
@sdhays: It’s still going to require some advanced Kremlinology to decode that mess. From what I understand even insiders were getting different stories from each other and didn’t know who to trust. SSDD.
Josh Marshall has an interesting piece up about the very real possibility that the superspreader in the Rose Garden was Trump himself. Of all the people who attended, the only ones who had a previous recent contact with a possibly infected person were Trump and Hicks, who had traveled the previous week with Ronna McDaniel. She apparently was infected by a friend or relative previously, and tested positive shortly after meeting with Trump and Hicks, so could have been contagious then.
Wouldn’t it be just perfect if all those people caught COVID from TRUMP?
A good ad for Tedra Cobb:
@Kent: Many years ago, 2 osteopathic physicians associated with the local hospital, started a clinic in my small home town of 700. They were the best Dr’s I ever had, and they were wonderful with my father and his emphysema and congestive heart failure.
This guy on TV, however, does not help with the negative impression most people have of Osteopathic Medicine.
Possible the WH knew he was infected on Monday, they did extreme social distancing in an unusual way:
@JoyceH: That would be perfect, second only to Covid Amy herself.
O/T But awful:
Kellyanne and George are trash. That poor child is begging for help.
@sdhays: I agree…way too much focus on Trump, and less on how egregious it is that the White House tried to cover this all up. I hope Kamala whacks Dense with this repeatedly at the debate (which I will not watch, since I am done with this cycle’s screamfests).
@JoyceH: It would make perfect dramatic sense to me that Trump would be a COVID superspreader. Game recognizes semi-sentient, parasitic game.
Claudia had said a few days ago that her mother was “coughing all around the house” so I’m not surprised. I assume George is next, if he isn’t positive already.
James E Powell
I say that Diamond Dogs is Bowie’s most underrated album. Years later, Bowie called it, “my usual basket of apocalyptic visions.” The songs are residuals from ideas for Broadway musicals, one was a Ziggy story, the other was 1984. He dropped the former and never got the rights for the latter. For Bowie fans who haven’t listened to it in a while it is worth a re-listen.
I could not dig; I dared not rob:
Therefore I lied to please the mob.
Now all my lies are proved untrue
And I must face the men I slew.
What tale shall serve me here among
Mine angry and defrauded young?
(A Dead Statesman)
Which is a shame because the real issue is being White House doctor during the Trump administration. ETTD.
@H.E.Wolf: Not sneering, I will more than happily vote for her and cheer loudly if Katko loses. My point was this is a more than winnable district and we already tried with her once in a very good Dem congressional year and it wasn’t very close.
(Also, I think Trump is just scowling at a bunch of blank sheets of paper for this inspiring photo op)
Mike in DC
We currently have Schrodinger’s President.
@Kent: Osteopaths are Chiropractors with an MD. One of them charged my elderly mother thousands of pounds to treat her shoulder pain to no effect. The woman was working out of her house with no proper clinic and no NHS safeguards. Forgive me if I don’t give them any leeway.
James E Powell
Cool. I’m not the best at keeping track, but I feel like a number of regulars dropped from sight since the beginning of the Corona Crisis.
The other CNY race of importance is the odius, Trump-loving Claudia Tenney trying to reclaim her seat from Anthony Brindisi. It is a grossly gerrymandered R majority district but Brindisi has been very good IMO in threading the needle. I’ve seen no recent polling on it but the market is saturated with commercials.
Thanks DougJ for doing this.
I remain very encouraged by early voting patterns for the general election, compared to 2016. As of October 2, 2016, 74,836 people had voted (Huffpost link). As of October 4, 2020, 3,298,165 have voted (United States Elections Project link). I think we may have more people vote in 2020 than we’ve seen in a long, long time. In states that report party registration data for early votes (FL, IA, MD, NC, NJ, PA, SD), 53.6% of those who’ve voted early are Democrats, 24% Republican and 21.6% have no party affiliation (don’t know what the percentages are for Greens, Libertarians, etc.)
@BR: Oh, wow. That’s a pretty damning photo. Recently, they’ve been reportedly been meeting together in the WH.
@germy: Great job, Kellyanne, let’s see ya spin this.
@germy: Those poor children.
I think the main impression with osteopathic medicine is that it is second tier because most, if not all of the top med schools in the country are allopathic. For example, one of the top osteopathic schools in the country is University of North Texas in Fort Worth, which is probably only be the 7th or 8th best med school in Texas alone. So it’s probably very much of a backup for most students who end up attending. Osteopathic medicine is also much more geared towards primary care rather than high status and high priced specialties, so also not as popular for that reason as well. Most osteopaths go on to primary care residencies. So there is a sense that it is kind of a second tier form of medicine.
Theres a Youtube ad titled “Donald Trump is a warrior!”
Probably along the lines of ‘He took a Covid bullet to save us all!’
( Yes, I just threw up a little.)
Wonkette had a piece up that said COVID-19 may be the closest we ever get to seeing Trump pay for the terrible things he’s done. But, it occurred to me that some of the people/organizations he owes money to are unlikely to just write those debts off. So today I’m some grim satisfaction in the thought that his terrible eldest three might spend the rest of their lives looking over their shoulders.
@West of the Rockies: If, for example, you took the Cook Political House Ratings list and split it right down the middle, the Ds would pick up 4 seats. However, it rarely splits right down the middle. With the current generic ballot numbers & voter intensity numbers & early vote numbers it’s probably more likely to be a 5 to 15 or so seat gain for Ds. Keep in mind that the Ds already have a 14 seat majority (it was a few seats larger but there are currently a few vacancies). Anything over that would be amazing
Edited to add: In 2018 I gave to 38 Red to Blue situation US House candidates & half won. In 2020 I’ve given to 30. So if I have the same success rate it would be a 15 seat pickup. Fingers crossed.
@localcomment: If what political analyst Rachel Bitecofer says about the dynamic of “negative polarization” is true, people may vote more against Katco than for Balter. Bitecofer has a good explaination of negative polarization in her article in February’s New Republic. And this is a bad year to be a republican incumbent, I think. It’s good to get reports from on the ground in a district, optimistic or not, so I hope you’ll give updates.
@Litlebritdifrnt: DOs in the US generally don’t operate like that. They have legitimate med schools, although I would say they’re not first tier. Ok as family practice types, and I think some in the Midwest used to specialize in orthopedics. Probably not the type of doc who should be treating the president, but I imagine this guy is just a PR mouthpiece, and Trump is really being treated by a pulmonologist. If not, he’s an idiot.
@germy: The general belief is he’s retiring because after he votes to confirm Barrett he will be radioactive in PA. Temper that with the good news that if it is Biden 2022 midterm it will be easier for D to win an open seat for Senate (midterms are generally tough for the party who hold the presidency).
@germy: Beating sickness because you’re “strong” or a “warrior” is just Christian Science with another name. It’s all bullshit.
@DougJ: I really appreciate these posts too. It gave me an easy place to see worthy candidates and an easy way to help them.
I am worried about a Democratic incumbent candidate in a neighboring district, Kim Schrier. She is being targeted by the Rs as a flippable seat. She’s the first Democratic Representative Washington’s District 8 has had in many years. She was elected in the 2018 wave election.
@frosty: Me too! The disease has killed people in excellent physical condition and left alive others who were not, like my husband’s 92 year old uncle. Being “strong” and being a “fighter” has nothing to do with it.
@Litlebritdifrnt: They’re not just glorified chiropractors.
J R in WV
In my experience, in the US, DOs are pretty equivilent to MDs. I know this may not be the case everywhere, but here they get the same course of study, and DOs get some extra on joint issues.
The Killing Moon – Echo and the Bunnymen (4:54) was just on a collection I’m playing on YouTube Music.
Up against your will…”
J R in WV
As others have said, and Me too, not in this country! In this country they’re Medical Doctors with extra training in joint disorders. There are crooks everywhere, in every kind of profession.
I’m sorry your mom found one.
@Another Scott: Heh, I’ve always loved that song.
@DougJ: Thank you Doug. One thing I would suggest is look for Districts that the Democrats can flip that will flip the state’s Congressional delegations. New Hampshire, Nebraska, & Montana are three that come to mind. The Democrats will need 26 delegations if the election goes into the House.