Maybe we’ll at least get another ‘Roaring Twenties’, come 2021?
lmfao and all the bars are closed
— Zeddy (@Zeddary) October 11, 2020
Also, gotta admit this sounds like something recycled from a First Gilded Age ‘penny dreadful’:
Trump has endorsed a falconer's Benghazi conspiracy theory that Joe Biden killed Navy SEALs in a blood sacrifice and that Osama Bin Laden is still alive because Seal Team 6 killed his body double. https://t.co/KIkNJuRXrr
— Will Sommer (@willsommer) October 13, 2020
if there's any bright side to this very-normal-democracy situation, it's that the president doesn't read much, so odds are he just looked at the headline here https://t.co/7BsIZ0dE6i
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) October 14, 2020
Technology changes; people, too often, don’t.
jl
OK, I admit I am lost. Was a whole Seal Team 6 team killed? Don’t remember it in the news. Or is that a myth too?
OTOH, probably I’ve paid too much attention to whether they ever found that pizza kitchen basement buried out in the Ukrainian woods. Trump should talk about that, I am curious and I am sure it would help his campaign. /snark.
NotMax
Speakeasies, no.
Texteasies, sí .
:)
Cherry L
I’d find this a little more believable if it had a hint
of Hilary’s e-mails.
mrmoshpotato
Family Guy – Bully!
Kent
Aren’t they accusing the military and specifically the Navy Seals of lying and perpetrating a MASSIVE fraud? I though we respected the troops.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: Get Out and Get Under
oatler.
Reminds me of Shelley Plimpton singing “maybe life is a replay” in 1971.
jl
@NotMax: Pinkerton agents are so 1880s.
Maybe AG Palmer and the Palmer raids? Palmer did some general purpose head cracking, shooting miscellaneous agitators, and strike breaking too, so it would fit. Now, there you got the 1920s.
Amir Khalid
@Kent:
You know by now how the Republican party shows “respect” for people and institutions.
Ian
@jl: The helicopter that held many of them crashed in Afghanistan. Different mission, later date.
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
Dunno to whom it should be attributed but long ago committed to memory the differentiation someone made between the films of Lloyd and of Keaton.
Harold Lloyd did funny things.
Buster Keaton did things funny.
.
The Moar You Know
History really does repeat itself
laura
The president reminds me of that friend of a friend in the 80’s. You’d end up at their house because you were stuck in someone else’s car and they needed to stop by for a minute. You knew as soon as the door closed behind you that you weren’t leaving anytime soon and had already been there too long in a house in name only. That friend would stand by the window monitoring traffic and other going on – real and imagined while insisting that you stay and he’s going call a bunch of people and get some food delivered and the super fun good times are only a half and hour away. The friend that brought you there keeps insisting everything’s cool and we’ll leave in a half an hour. And the hours roll by. I want to get out of that house and go home and take a silkwood shower and drop the friend that took me there.
jl
@Ian: Thanks for info. Trumpsters push out vile lies, cynically using US troops lost in action, makes sense.
Ascap_scab
@jl: You don’t remember the Seal Team 6 Massacre? It right about the time of the Bowling Green Massacre.
Kent
@laura: That’s the only reason God invented Uber. I made sure my college age daughter had an Uber account and a working debit card to make it work. Because you always want to be able to walk out the door and get home.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: I don’t know why you’re drawing the distinction. You can like both.
Ian
@jl: The grossest part is they use the families. Some of the bereaved parents obviously must believe this stuff, grief does one hell of a job to anybody, but the ones pushing this damn well know better.
Chetan Murthy
@mrmoshpotato: One presumes it’s a bit of an inside joke.
prostratedragon
@laura: Ah, I new I was being reminded of something.
A new citizen has an animation that describes the remedy: Vote.
Chetan Murthy
@prostratedragon: That is one lovely animation.
Another Scott
DW.com:
Good, good.
Infections are rising rapidly in sensible countries in Europe. I dread the fall and winter in the USA.
Stay safe, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
Liking (or not liking) has naught to do with it. It’s an apt description of their respective techniques.
jl
@Another Scott: Following the link, doesn’t look as provocative as I expected. OK with me.
At least they are trying to do a decent public education campaign. Is the US trying to do one? In CA I hear occasional spots on masks and social distancing from the Surgeon General. Nothing at all from CA DPH. I talked with a visitor from Illinois who said that state actually had a real education campaign, and she said the one there was much bigger than what she saw in CA which seemed to be nothing, though she was on vacation, so maybe not fair.
Below is a link to a twitter thread on pubic information program in New Zealand and link to a Lancet article.
@DrJinRussell
A new
@TheLancetPH
paper describes how New Zealanders crushed COVID-19.
https://twitter.com/DrJinRussell/status/1316315250937921537
Found via Marm Kilpatrick’s twitter, who I highly recommend for excellent explanations of technical epidemiological stuff. He is an expert on zoonotic epidemics, including human critters and wildlife, so has an interesting perspective.
piratedan
I guess the part of the equation that still has me puzzled is that if Polling is being done off of voter lists, it seems like with the massive amounts of voter registration that has been going on in California, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Arizona and elsewhere that there’s a very real possibility that these people are not being counted when it comes to polling (or so it would seem to me). If that is true (unknown, but seems plausible to me) a really big question for me is who in the hell are these people going to vote for. Maybe I’m crazy but I sure as hell don’t see Trump urging new voters into the fold and from the threads that I do follow, it appears that these new voters appear to be overwhelming in temperament.
I think we’re looking at a wipeout election, a real wiping of the slate clean and races that look close now are only scratching the surface of what these voters are seeking and as of now, they don’t even appear to be on the radar of pollsters and who they are asking the questions of…. I see lots of videos showing the numbers guys hedging those bets, trying to keep the horse-race narrative alive and I’m getting the feeling that the GOP is in serious trouble, not just at the Senate, but in the House as well.
The trends are showing independents breaking Dem, Seniors breaking to Dems, Women breaking to Dems and now even males are starting to become aware… I hope I am right, but that’s what I am seeing and every damn day, not only Trump, but the GOP itself are stepping on rakes and people see them for what they are, more interested in power than governance…
jl
@piratedan: My big question is whether the polling problems of Trump voter shame and non-response to polling calls has been solved. Pollsters in posts on methods on 538 blog say that they are confident that they have solved those. What they wonder about is turnout being very unpredictable. It will be big, but how much bigger on each side.
I have to trust Democratic strategy of going big on early votes, in person and mail. Those are in the bank. Hoping for big turnout on election day is not in the bank and places the chips on one day.
I also read that Democrats are focusing on verifiable short run turnout process. That is, after determining who their voters are, contacting them several times when GOTV is ready to actually help them vote, one way or another. So, it is an ongoing process over the whole early voting period. GOP focused on contacting voters early to alert them the election is coming up. and door knocking early. But IIRC, their schedule for that is around now, in the middle of the cash crunch and after the infamous series of Trump doing ridiculous and disgusting pratfalls. If that is true, I like the Democratic approach better.
NotMax
@jl
Would you expect them to say anything different?
:)
SFAW
@piratedan:
So, basically, you’re saying that Trump has it in the bag?
jl
@NotMax: No, but they give their reasons, and anyone is free to judge. Bottom line is that they have done clever (or underhanded, from the viewpoint of the subjects) studies to test relative reluctance to express support for Trump and GOP versus Biden and Dems. And adjust for variables that have been found to correlate with GOP and Dem non-response to polling calls. But go look at some of the 538 posts and judge for yourself.
I forgot another worry, which is how to randomly sample cell phone numbers
Edit: in sum, hey, we statisticians have our ways….. we can make you talk whether you want to or not, or even know whether you are or not, bwa ha ha ha :-0
Edit2: ZIPS, the ZIPS, can tell a lot of secrets, as does education and internet behavior, all that can be used for good as well as ill.
mrmoshpotato
@Another Scott:
Fuck that. Fixed.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: Fair enough. Now those English blokes – they were terrible!
jl
@mrmoshpotato: Looks like a cool lady of a certain age, cantankerous, but in a good way.
NotMax
@jl
Will continue to take a pass on anything that has Nate “Look, ma, I reinvented the wheel!” Silver’s fingerprints on it.
mrmoshpotato
@jl: I’m fine with the ad. The overuse of “controversial” should be drown in a bath.
jl
@NotMax: Me to, but I’m just relaying quotes from the statisticians in the interviews.
IMHO, Silver’s model is so complicated it is hard to tell what it is doing anymore. And too much adjustment tied to likely voter screens, which is unreliable in a year with likely much different turnout than in the past. And a lot of inertia built in, so a lot of bells and whistles that amount to extrapolation of current estimates, so why do all that? Iffy state correlations based on arbitrary demographics (IMHO) to add info to infrequently polled states or states with low quality polls. I think they should use past state and congressional district voting behavior, but maybe too much noise in that data to add anything.
But, does it make any difference? The better pool forecast models are all saying pretty much the same thing
Edit: you can download all the data and take a look for yourself. I don’t see that you can download the code, but that would be such a vast forest of gimmicks, will be next presidential election before can make heads or tales of it.
Edit2: and a big gripe, seems to have a very long memory of old polls that may be irrelevant now.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Kent: We used to respect the troops, now they’re suckers and losers.
Redshift
@jl:
I’m involved in this, doing texting for the combined presidential/senate/congressional campaign, and this is absolutely what they have us doing. We’re contacting voters, urging them to vote as soon as they can by whatever method, and day when. We find out who’s already voted, have resources to give people the info they need and help them solve any problems. Anyone we know has voted is someone we don’t need to put any more effort on.
I love knocking on doors and talking to people, but I have to admit it’s got nothing on this.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: One of the big problem with emphasizing election day in-person turnout is weather. Who knows, it could be 110 or a blizzard.
NotMax
Well, that’s something I didn’t need. Just discovered I somehow, some way managed to split the nail on one big toe straight down the middle, running ¾ of the way down.
mrmoshpotato
HA! via Kevin M. Kruse
NotMax
@BillinGlendaleCA
But it’s a dry blizzard!
:)
jl
@Redshift: Thanks for info. Good to hear.
My one concern was that the Dem GOTV poohbahs are relying on calculations that the turnout and $ cost benefit of two or three calls close to time voter could be helped to turn in vote was favorable to one more expensive house call. They were going big on phone contact because they were going to use in person GOTV only where really needed. I wondered how reliable their estimates were.
Glad to know it seems to be working out.
Anne Laurie
If you read the article, yes the Germans have their share of those who think A BUTTHURT WE HAS IT!!! constitutes ‘reasoned opposition’.
jl
@?BillinGlendaleCA: SCOTUS will say bad weather is unfair, founders originally meant had to be good weather on election day, so special make up where only Republicans can vote.
If read carefully, the founders told us so very much about every little thing that comes up!
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
Only if Biden and Harris get to do a whole Mystery Science Theater 3000 take along with it.
:)
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: Blizzard
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: Haha. Would you settle for Hal Sparks?
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
Heck, I’d settle for Ned Sparks.
:)
mrmoshpotato
@Anne Laurie: Hahaha! What’s “Wwwwwaaaaahhhhhhh!” in German?
jl
@Redshift: “I love knocking on doors and talking to people,”
IIRC, they said really need house to house and face to face for persuasion, so lucky few undecided voters this time, and Trump has done so much work on that for the Democrats recently.
TS (the original)
@Redshift:
As with the whole campaign, the democrats know what they are doing. Thanks for the explanation & for being part of it
Emerald
Somebody please save that poor bird.
Yutsano
@jl:
I can’t remember where I read it, but the feedback the Republicans were getting from their doorknockers was that they were being shooed away because of the pandemic. So traditional doorknocking isn’t nearly as effective in this cycle.
JustRuss
Props to Kari Donovan for her Twitter pic and its “Linda Hamilton in Terminator 2” vibe.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: Never heard of him, but I know our library has Gold Diggers of 1933. I’ll have to pick it up. I love dry humor like that.
“I’m smiling now.”
frosty
@NotMax: I saw this years ago as:
Comics say funny things
Comedians say things funny
mrmoshpotato
@Yutsano:
I was hoping that the spell would break after 4 years of death and destruction, and anyone coming around would get a shouting at from a 2nd floor window via bullhorn.
Arclite
He re-tweeted that lady’s story. There’s something super-fishy about that. I mean, she’s not even blonde…
Wyatt Salamanca
Responses to the Ultra Bullshit Great Barrington Declaration
John Snow Memorandum
Statement from 30 researchers and signed by 50 others spanning public health, epidemiology, medicine, health policy, and other disciplines.
https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/
Originally published in The Lancet https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S014067362032153X.pdf
“Herd Immunity” is Not an Answer to a Pandemic
By Thomas File, M.D., FIDSA – President, Infectious Diseases Society of America
https://www.idsociety.org/news–publications-new/articles/2020/herd-immunity-is-not-an-answer-to-a-pandemic/
14 Public Health Organizations Condemn Herd Immunity Scheme for Controlling Spread of SARS CoVID-2
Statement authored by
Big Cities Health Coalition
Trust for America’s Health
American Public Health Association
Association of Public Health Laboratories
Association of Schools and Programs of Public Health
de Beaumont Foundation
Johns Hopkins Center for Public Security of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health
National Association of County Behavioral Health and Developmental Disabilities Directors
National Association of County and City Health Officials
National Association for Rural Mental Health
Prevention Institute
Public Health Institute
Resolve to Save Lives
Well Being Trust
https://www.bigcitieshealth.org/media-statement-great-barrington-declaration
h/t https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/herd-immunity-great-barrington-backlash-letter
Balconesfault
@piratedan: more good news for John McCain!
frosty
I think new Trump voters came out from under the rocks in my part of South PA and IMHO that’s what flipped the state. How many more of them are out there this time around? No way of knowing, but I tend to agree with you that the new registrations are anti-Trump. In 3 weeks we’ll see.
frosty
@jl: I just signed up for in-person lit drop on the weekend before the election and door knocking for the rest of October. Nothing but phone banking was available til now.
frosty
@jl: Cost-benefit of phones vs. house calls? Hell, I didn’t know I was supposed to get paid! Who do I send the invoice to?????
Wyatt Salamanca
@Wyatt Salamanca:
Addendum
“Herd Immunity” is Not an Answer to a Pandemic
By Thomas File, M.D., FIDSA – President, Infectious Diseases Society of America
and Judith Feinberg, M.D. – Chair, HIV Medicine Association
https://www.idsociety.org/news–publications-new/articles/2020/herd-immunity-is-not-an-answer-to-a-pandemic/
Sloane Ranger
@piratedan:
CNN had a Cletus safari to some rural Pennsilvania county. They visited something called the Trump House. It sells Trump merchandise and helps voters register. They interviewed some 80 year old who told them he had come to register to vote for the first time ever because Trump was doing such good things for America. The thing was, he seemed so sane and normal!
Anyway, the point is, if true, Trump is picking up new voters. The question is how many and where
smike
@frosty:
Soros.
TS (the original)
@Sloane Ranger:
And trump told me he has a miracle cure for the virus & if I die of it – I must be a very weak person.
I don’t believe a word of it other than the guy was being conned into buying trump souvenirs.
mrmoshpotato
@Sloane Ranger: 80? Over 60 years of being eligible to vote…
What a fucking failure as a citizen of a democracy. And a crackpot apparently.
jl
@Wyatt Salamanca: Thanks very much. Actually, we relied on disease induced herd immunity for a lot of diseases until post WWII when immunization became common, and the mess that was should be well known. For a detailed and depressing rundown of what would probably happen based on historical experience, check out Marm Kilpatrick’s twitter. He has a thread on it in the last day or two.
jl
I have to wonder if the herd immunity crowd that thinks covid can be controlled only at ruinous cost can find Taiwan or New Zealand on the map.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Dump was always a more incompetent and corrupt version of Warren Harding.
Similarly, Dump nearly died of (covid) pneumonia, being saved only by science.
Fair Economist
“Herd Immunity” doesn’t refer to the truism that if everybody gets a disease not everybody will end up dead. It is a theory, developed in 1933 by A. W. Hedrich, that if you induce immunity in a large enough proportion of the population you can protect the rest. It has NEVER been successfully used without a vaccine. It has NEVER been successfully used against any respiratory virus, vaccine or no, because immunity doesn’t last long enough. The idea of controlling COVID with herd immunity would be a total joke if the psychopath party wasn’t trying to use it as an excuse to kill about a million Americans.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
After Nixon left office no one would admit voting for him. Same thing happen with Dubya. Six month from now, same will happen to Dump.
jl
@Fair Economist: ‘herd immunity’ is used for several different concepts. I agree with you if it is used in veterinary sense of protecting a herd of cows from disease. In math models it is often used to describe the threshold where effective R goes below 1 and new cases start to fall. In that sense, herd immunity controlled the cyclic behavior of measles, mumps, seasonal flu, etc. epidemics before vaccines.
Either way you take it, bad news for disease induced herd immunity, won’t work.
I wonder how much of this herd immunity nonsense is because they confuse the different uses of the word?
But, probably more basic arguments are better: look at the half dozen most successful countries… case closed.
jl
@Fair Economist: ‘herd immunity’ is used for several different concepts. I agree with you if it is used in veterinary sense of protecting a herd of cows from disease. In math models it is often used to describe the threshold where effective R goes below 1 and new cases start to fall. In that sense, herd immunity controlled the cyclic behavior of measles, mumps, seasonal flu, etc. epidemics before vaccines.
Either way you take it, bad news for disease induced herd immunity, won’t work.
I wonder how much of this herd immunity nonsense is because they confuse the different uses of the word?
But, probably more basic arguments are better: look at the half dozen most successful countries… case closed.
TS (the original)
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
Be nice to have him say he supports Joe Biden for President but he says he’ll leave the analysis to the pundits.
A plus that he is saying it before the election.
Sally
@Fair Economist: Yes! Yes!! Yes!!!
Thank you
mrmoshpotato
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
Didn’t have to go too far back to find an applicable post.
Burn the lifeboats
Sally
@Sally: Would they like to see “herd immunity” instead of vaccines for, say, whooping cough? Polio? Yellow fever? TB? Small pox? I could go on …. diseases that were endemic in populations. And killed millions. Disabled millions more. Morons.
mrmoshpotato
@jl:
I believe this “herd immunity” crap is around because Dump wasn’t ever going to do the actual job of being President. He just thought everyone would sing his praises because he was in the Office.
He planned to be a dipshit for his entire term because he IS a dipshit. But then COVID-19 came along, he hoped it would confine itself to infecting and killing Democrats, and “Oh! Shit! It’s not just offing the blue states! And it’s not just disappearing!”
He also has no idea what to do, because he can’t scare it away with Twitter insults, or threaten to sue it, or grab it by the pussy like the fascist, orange rapist that he is.
jl
@mrmoshpotato: I remember typing at the outset of the excellent Trump adventure, either everyone would have to say they voted for Trump, or no one would want to.
Sm*t Cl*de
@jl:
For obvious reasons it doesn’t mention the human sacrifices to placate Pazuzu the Demon of Pestilence, which was the real secret to eliminating COVID.
Amir Khalid
@mrmoshpotato:
A correction: This octogenarian would have been born in 1940. In 1958, the year he turned 18, legal adulthood in America (with the right to vote) was still at 21. So he has been eligible to vote for only 59 years, not for more than 60.
Your point still stands, of course.
mrmoshpotato
@jl: I don’t want the details on the fascist, Nazi nightmare where everyone would have to say they voted for Trump.
opiejeanne
@mrmoshpotato: I’m 70 and had to wait until I was 22. They didn’t allow 18 year olds to vote until July 1971,
You’re right, it’s irresponsible and unconscionable, and that guy was probably a bit gaga.
mrmoshpotato
@Sm*t Cl*de: Did someone say Pazuzu?
jl
@mrmoshpotato: True, but there also appear to be many very deeply confused professors and physicians wandering around saying wrong things as well. Or things that are so confused that they are ‘not even wrong.’ That’s what Fair Economist and I were typing about.
mrmoshpotato
@Amir Khalid: *grumbles*. Yes yes. Forgot about that piece of history. :)
ETA – and maybe he was born in the winter of ’39. ?
opiejeanne
@Amir Khalid: Beat me to it.
jl
@mrmoshpotato: I thought doom porn was popular on this blog.
mrmoshpotato
@jl: Hooray for a lack of leadership from the White House!
mrmoshpotato
@jl: Nazi doom porn isn’t my cup of tea.
Now asteroid doom porn! Bring! It! On! (and the asteroid if Dump wins 270 votes again)
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
Would you settle for an additional moon?
Given a strategic nudge….
;)
jl
@Sm*t Cl*de: it’s a non-techical article, skips over the details of the fundamental science.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: We Like The Moon(s)
Geminid
@Sloane Ranger: My friend in Atlanta sent me a Tom Edsall NYT article detailing new registrations by party. In Florida, 195,000 R, 98,000 D; in Pennsylvania, 135,000 R, ~55,000 D. So the republicans have had success on this front. (In Arizona, new D registrations exceeded new R). I always figured that trump was gaining new adherents. So the campaign does have something to show for the $900 million it spent 2017 to August 2020. But I suspect their new voters are substantially outnumbered by defections.
JAFD
@opiejeanne: Yes, the ’18-year-old-vote’ amendment was passed between the 1971 Pennsylvania primary and my 21st birthday
Fair life is not
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
There’s a greater than zero chance that somewhere on this planet is a couple who turn to each other when they hear that and say, “Honey, they’re playing our song.”
:)
TS (the original)
@Geminid:
I find that slightly frightening – didn’t imagine that would be the situation. Who are these people registering to vote for trump?
Geminid
@TS (the original): my guess. Previously uninvolved cranks caught by trump’s belligence, and reached by the trump campaign’s social media outreach. My Atlanta friend was also concerned, and these numbers could conceivably make a difference in a close election. But I do think defecting trump 2016 voters have defected in higher numbers than these new adherents. A lot of people were, and still are, dissatisfied with politics as usual, and trump successfully sold himself as an outsider who would disrupt the political status quo. While racism and misogyny played their part, I think the insider/outsider dynamic also played a role in shifting votes to trump. But I think some of trump’s 2016 voters have assessed his performance and decided his disruption is not what they had in mind, and want him out.
Geminid
@Geminid: Some context: net PA republican over Democratic registrations, ~80,000, 2016 total voters 5.8 million. Net FL republican advantage, ~100,000, total 2016 voters 9.1 million.
TS (the original)
@Geminid:
Thanks. Those figures are reassuring given that the independents are trending to Biden.
Pat
Peale
QAnon just can’t help themselves with the “blood sacrifice” fixation. O.K. Like if Seal Team 6 really did need to be silenced to cover up a crime why would TPTB choose “blood sacrifice ritual” as the method? Its like people who promote the idea that 9/11 was an inside job and then somehow involve Bigfoot into the mix.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Herald of the Negle was positing last night that California should vote for him because “high crime, brownouts and high taxes” So after four years of president this idiot had learned nothing about how the government works.
Uncle Cosmo
@NotMax: Well hey, thanky kindly for that link – after all these years I finally came face-to-vid with my archetype….;^D
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Geminid: Here is the LA Times on this topic
They point out this the reason why pollsters ask so many many different questions so get around the shy voter thing.
Also, sort of like with the 80 year old man who just registered to vote; why makes anyone think he will show up and do it this time?
brantl
@NotMax: Superglue it.
chopper
@mrmoshpotato:
trump just assumed the whole thing would take care of itself (or someone else would do it) and he’d get all the accolades. just like his entire life up up to this point.