The debate tonight is likely to be a doozy. It is one of the few chances left for the candidate and campaign that is likely behind by ten points nationally and six or seven points in the tipping point states to introduce variance into the race. Variance is the only hope that they have as the trend is working against them. Variance could lead to a bigger loss, or it could lead to the possibility of getting the race to the margin of litigation.
The election is ongoing. Another couple of million people voted today. The outcome on November 3rd has less variance today than it did yesterday and significantly less variance than it did on October 15th.
Fact: more people have now early voted in North Carolina (2,4317,317) than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in North Carolina (2,362,631) in 2016.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 22, 2020
All 2,417,317 people who have already voted in North Carolina are now indifferent to new information. Their votes won’t change if the President is a calm, empathetic individual with a firm grasp of actuarial implications of moving individuals to parallels markets. Their votes won’t change if the President has to be injected with Thorazine while on the debate stage. Their votes will not change. Some of those 2.4 million votes will be for the President. Some of those 2.4 million votes will be for the challenger who is in a commanding national position. These votes are locked in.
Tomorrow, even more votes will be locked in.
And on Saturday and Sunday, even more votes will be locked in.
Each day moving forward reduces the universe of people who can change their mind.
Let’s do a simple thought experiment on the importance of variance and locked-in votes. The Economist has Vice President Biden projected to be leading in North Carolina 51-49 on October 22. Let us say that there are 5,000,000 major candidate voters in the state so the state winner is the first one to 2,500,001 votes. Let us assume that the projection is perfectly right, so the Vice President is currently supported by 2,550,000 voters and the current President is supported by 2,450,000.
If we had a single election period where everyone goes to the polls on Tuesday November 3rd, the President needs variance to move 1%+1 votes to win the state. 1% +1 is not a ton of noise. Maybe the Vice President showed too much compassion for his son, or he ordered a Cheese Steak with Swiss instead of Provolone or horror of horrors, he indicated a preference for mustard based barbecue. If we assume variance is symmetrical, there is an equal chance that the Vice President wins by 3% instead of 2% but from a direct electoral perspective, an additional vote above the minimum needed coalition is not particularly useful.
Now let us assume that we have a 2 election period and that the distribution of voters between periods is random. the distribution of preferences on 10/22 is the same (51 B 49 T). By the end of Thursday, October 22, half the votes will be in. These individuals can’t change their vote. The President still needs to make up 50,001 votes. However those votes need to come from the pool of individuals who are potentially amenable to new information. This means there needs to be a 2% swing from the pool of voters still out there. This is harder to achieve than a 1% swing. There might be some voters who have already voted whose opinions have changed but their votes are constant.
If we make assumptions about the composition of the first period of early voters, the numbers will change. If we think that the early voters are more likely to be Biden voters, even more variance is needed as the pool of potential Biden-Trump switchers in the election day pool is smaller than it would be if voting in the early period is not correlated with preferences. If we think that the early period is heavy on Trump voters, then less variance is needed.
North Carolina is just a good teaching case as the numbers are round enough and the margins are close enough. Variance at this point is the best hope for the candidate who is running behind beyond normal polling errors in the tipping point states. And as early voting continues, the amount of variance needed has to increase because the number of people who are potentially information sensitive is continually declining.
So tonight, expect WTF as the President has minimal downside to a fiasco which either does not change the contours of the race or increases Vice President Biden’s lead. He has no institutional loyalty to the Republican Party. He has only upside of perhaps doing something that could get current soft Biden voters and undecided voters to flow to him. So expect variance.
Capri
By all accounts Trump thought he did great during the first debate. Variance has always been the only thing he’s got. I’m guessing we see a repeat with some muting.
Pete Downunder
Thanks for the insightful statistical analysis. It’s so much better than the pundit arm waving we see in the MSM.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
I agree with Capri, Trump is just going to double down on being Trump.
dmsilev
I feel that the odds of these two scenarios are somewhat asymmetric.
Calouste
By sheer coincidence, and in no way related to the debate tonight or the expected performance there of one of the candidates, today is the 125th anniversary of the famous Montparnasse trainwreck.
dmsilev
@Capri: As further evidence, look at the video recording of the 60 Minutes interview that the White House released this morning. They, meaning Trump, thought that failing to answer questions, storming out early, and committing to wanting the Supreme Court to kill the ACA without having a replacement plan ready was a good look for him. They couldn’t even wait until this evening or tomorrow to prevent the latter from coming up as a debate question.
Gin & Tonic
But a preference for mustard-based barbecue could help tip South Carolina, no?
trollhattan
@Capri:
I’m picturing Trump doing a reenactment of LBJ in the limo during John Glenn’s flight in “The Right Stuff”, while his mic is cut. “If this lectern be rockin’, Trump be squawkin’.”
dmsilev
@Calouste: Bringing it back to the subject of this post, the photograph of that event is on the cover of a classic text on statistical error analysis.
Martin
Nate is projecting 15 million more voters than 2016. No fucking way Trump gets very many of them. That 15 million is the biggest challenge for pollsters, and I’m guessing it’s going to break quite a few downballot races.
Jamie
Pretty sure I’d expect a fiasco just due to the nature of the incumbent, but I agree that he’s incentivized to create a 500 milligram, extra-strength, super duper fiasco tonight. Ye gods.
mrmoshpotato
@dmsilev: Are we taking bets on when the traitorous orange manbaby yells out, “Daddy Vladdy! They’re being big meanies!”?
different-church-lady
He’s going to be who he has been all along. Trump is incapable of doing anything else. There is no strategic Trump. There is only impulse Trump. The only reason it ever looks like strategy is because it got him what he wanted four years ago.
Martin
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: Yeah. All he can do is address his own narcissism. If that causes him to stumble ass-backward into an electoral strategy, so be it. But anything tonight that helps him electorally will be dumb luck and nothing more.
Villago Delenda Est
@different-church-lady: Exactly so.
dmsilev
@Martin: Not surprising. The early voting has been going gangbusters, even considering the impact of the pandemic. And yes, it’s going to do interesting things to the likely-voter models for the polling companies.
RSA
Thanks for this post! You mentioned decreasing variance in a previous post, and I didn’t understand how it worked, but now it’s all much clearer.
Jay
Responding to:
mrmoshpotato
@different-church-lady:
Can you cite the time(s) it looked like strategy? ?
Dump: My strategy is to be a whiny, bitchass, manbaby! I have lots of experience unlike that. person. (points a baby finger at Secretary Clinton)
Delk
How many are undecided and how many are apathetic?
Cameron
@trollhattan: I figure he’ll lose it completely the first time his mic is cut; when it comes back on, he’ll sound like Donald Duck throwing a fit.
Baud
@different-church-lady:
He also had a lot more co-conspirators in 2016.
japa21
@dmsilev: I have been saying for a while that I think the polls may be wrong in a way that will prove beneficial to u s. I think it is possible their turnout models are wrong and that they are actually understating Biden’s support.
Lacuna Synechdoche
In other words, Trump’s best strategy tonight is “Fuck it, I’ll do it live! I gotta be MEEEE!”?
Snarki, child of Loki
Trump could get MY vote by disposing of the biggest fascist threat to America…
…all he has to do is suck on a bullet, on stage.
Oh wait, mail ballot is in, can’t change it now. Oh well.
Hoodie
Yeah, I think we’re in for bananapants crazy. His biggest concern is the faithful who are waiting to vote on election day will be discouraged if it looks like he’s giving up. The die was cast on a base-only strategy quite a while ago. When Trump acts “normal,” they tend to view that as a sign of weakness.
Jay
Baud
Let Trump Be Trump.
HumboldtBlue
Guys? Guys? GUYS?
TOM BUBOLINSKI!!!!!!
Auuuugggghhhhh run for the hills.
Villago Delenda Est
@Jay: So, they’re the ACTUAL “Deep State”.
MattF
I feel pretty sure that Trump would not understand the reasoning in this post. And, in the event that some minion on his campaign staff understands it and tries to explain it, it’s not going to get through. Trump’s behavior is driven by his needs, not by logic.
mac8
Oh, God, my uncle is one of those “the candidates haven’t reached out to me personally so I feel disenfranchised and will vote accordingly” people. I just saw him on twitter @-ing our Gov. and former Gov. (Mike DeWine and Kasich) asking which candidate would be better for Ohio.
I resisted the urge to send him an “are you kidding me?” text and told him that Kasich endorsed Biden, to which he sent that up there back to me and “respectfully disagreed” with my opinion that it’s our responsibility as voters to research candidates ourselves. Sigh. At least he’s not a Trump supporter.
mrmoshpotato
@Delk:
Fixed. No charge.
debbie
I will only watch long enough to see how Trump deals with the mute button.
Gin & Tonic
WaPo headline this evening: Former Ukraine prosecutor says Hunter Biden ‘did not violate anything
ETA: This is old, sorry.
mrmoshpotato
@japa21: I say that we vote for Biden/Harris in such numbers that the Soviet shitpile mobster crime family feels like they’re being beaten with their own bones and consider fleeing the country the night of the 3rd.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Ah the Leroy Jenkins strategy for the The Donald it is.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
I hope Biden can manage to ignore whatever Hunter nonsense Trump throws at him.
debbie
I think Fox has given up on Trump. The affiliate here is showing football instead (Giants vs. Eagles).
Sure Lurkalot
I will never understand how his supporters see strength and resolve when all he does is whine and complain. Manliness when he has his hair styled and makeup done to prance around in kitten heels. Business acumen when he’s bankrupted himself many times and is probably currently broke.
I’m going to find a good movie to watch and check the BJ feed now and then for the lowlights. You folks who are tuning in…thoughts and prayers.
Roger Moore
@different-church-lady:
I don’t think that’s 100% true. Trump has a few strategies that he’s used a lot before and will continue to use because they worked for him. For example, he loves to wait for the other person to deliver on their half of a deal and then refuse to carry out his half, demanding to renegotiate. The problem is that the strategies that worked to squeeze subcontractors when he was working as a property developer don’t necessarily translate to presidential debates.
mrmoshpotato
@debbie: Are you ready for some FOOOOTBALL!
Enzymer
To add a little detail to David’s post, as of this afternoon in North Carolina just over 1million votes have been cast by registered Democrats (43% of the total), 690k by Republicans (28%) & 698k by Independents (29%). Blacks & whites are voting in equal numbers, Others (Hispanic, Asian, biracial, etc) are lagging. Definitely more enthusiasm on team D.
debbie
@mrmoshpotato:
I think I’ll watch a rerun of Criminal Minds. At least those psychopaths speak in complete sentences. //
Roger Moore
@MattF:
He wouldn’t understand the fancy math stuff, but he would understand the basic idea: you can’t play it safe when you’re behind. To use a football metaphor, now is the time for a Hail Mary play.
I am not Jon Snow
@debbie:
The Hunter Biden attack at tonight’s debate (including the identity of Trump’s supposed “surprise guest,” Tony Bobulinski) has been telegraphed so clearly that if Biden isn’t ready for it, his entire debate prep team should be immediately fired.
Incidentally, Team Trump’s Hunter Biden obsession is yet another example of Frank Lopez’s (the Robert Loggia character in Scarface) infamous rule number 1: “Don’t get high on your own supply.” You have to be deep into the fever swamps of Fox News and/or talk radio to even know what they’re talking about (and even then it doesn’t make much sense). Most voters will just scratch their heads and wonder why in the world Trump isn’t talking about covid, healthcare, the economy, or any of the other things they really care about. Plus, he’ll come across as an a-hole and a bully while doing it, which will offend voters even more.
randy khan
One other factor that makes the situation worse – votes that already have been cast early are certain votes, while votes cast in the future are not certain. Some percentage of the population means to vote on Election Day but doesn’t make it. So while late votes have the same value as early ones, late voters are inherently less valuable as a group than an equivalent number of early voters. The difference may not be great, but in a close race it can be important.
jl
Thanks for interesting analysis that emphasizes the IMHO neglected aspect of the Democratic emphasis on early voting, in-person or by mail, whatever works best.
Another source of variance is, if it is true that early votes are mostly Democratic, the Republicans are banking on turnout on one day. So, what will the weather be like, how many stupid things will Trump do and say to depress turnout, how will the new covid waves affect turnout. As for the last, it is easy for people to say that they’ll brave the plague to go vote, but what they will actually do on one particular day if the epidemic is raging in their area is another matter. Also, if Biden’s lead is steady, which despite worrying (edit, by professional worriers or obsessives) I think it is, how will growing expectation of a drubbing affect turnout? Will the Trumpsters be charged up for a last stand, or will be be discouraged?
And another source of variance is that the Ds and Rs are using different approaches to GOTV. Rs are focusing on in-person door knocking with early contact. Ds are doing 2 or 3 phone contacts close to time when local GOTV is ready to help with getting the vote in, whichever is the best way to do that. Ds do in-person only when necessary.
And then for a number of reasons, the polls will have more variance than usual for survey design reasons, not only underlying support. And early voting is part of that. How do different polls account for people who report that they have already voted?
Let the pundits gas over every jig and jog on the polls. Why worry about when best thing now is to contribute or help local Ds with turnout. Even in CA it will do good, some close House districts.
BruceFromOhio
Since November, 2016.
jl
@I am not Jon Snow: If Trump does obsess over that, will be interesting how much time he spends on the actual attack on Biden family, versus yelling that the press and half of Congress are coup plotting it by not covering it exactly the way Trumps desires. Edit: and Barr sucks.
Trump has been frothing so much over the moderator, I wonder if he can resist going after her as much as Biden.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
The main thing I’m curious about is what he’ll do when his mic is muted. But I’m not curious enough to watch any of it. I’ll read about it.
jl
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I’ll see what happens. If Trump is cut off in mid rant, and we can hear him screaming and fussing incomprehensibly in the background, might be enough satisfaction in that to make it tolerable. I doubt but, we’ll find out.
debbie
@I am not Jon Snow:
Not every whore wears a skirt, I guess…
Wapiti
@jl: Echoing your point: if Trump appears to be behind, how long of a line will his supporters be willing to stand in to support the lost cause? Will 30 minutes be too long?
Princess
I think there will be plenty of people who didn’t vote at all in 2016 who will vote in 2020 — people who feared Trump didn’t hate women and BIPOC and immigrants enough, but who now know he does. Evangelicals especially, who didn’t buy that he’d be hard pro-criminalization on abortion but now know he is. I also think the losses among Hispanic voters are real, and I’m seeing in my own circles losses among Black men, which are the results of campaigns of disinformation. I still believe and hope we will win, but I don’t think it is anything close to the case that 15 million new votes will be all Democrat ones.
Roger Moore
@debbie:
I disagree. I think it might actually help Biden to blow up a bit and throw back at him all the corrupt shit Trump’s spawn have been involved with. In any case, I’m guessing part of his debate prep was how to deal with Trump goading him on Hunter, and any apparent blow-ups will be much more planned than they look.
jl
@Wapiti: As things develop, and I read things about how many early votes that are probably D that are coming in, and looks like next covid wave will be raging around election day in some swing states, the more I understand why state and local GOPers did not like Trump’s obsession with Rs doing election day voting.
But, what happens there involves such radical uncertainty, not much to say other than we need to do whatever we can for GOTV.
Edit: a commenter who was putting a lot of time into GOTV phone banking and voting assistance said he/she thought that the D approach was working great. Said that it seemed just as effective for GOTV as door to door. I found that reassuring.
Capri
Another reason the polling might be off a bit is that there isn’t a ton of enthusiasm for Biden. I’ve read that more than a time or two given as a reason why the outcome might be closer than folks think. What that misses is that the enthusiasm for voting against Trump is off the charts. Most people would vote for a old sweater if it was running against Trump.
randy khan
@Princess:
No doubt they won’t, but if there are 153 million votes (last time’s total plus 15 million), none of the old voters move from Trump to Biden (which we know won’t be true) and the new votes split 60-40 for Biden, that’s terrible news for Trump. He had no margin to spare in 2016.
randy khan
@Capri:
Early voting numbers suggest that the claims of lack of enthusiasm for Biden are overstated. But, in practice, there’s not that much difference between being enthusiastically for someone and enthusiastically against that person’s opponent.
Also, that’s what likely voter screens are for.
LongHairedWeirdo
The good news is, Trump just isn’t competent to find a *good* variance-creator. He might scream about Hunter Biden (who, remember, is not only a mob boss for having taken a job that had the appearance of a possible conflict of interest, but *MAY HAVE INTRODUCED HIS BOSS TO HIS DAD!!!!!*); he might try insisting the non-existent Republican health care plan will protect pre-existing conditions (“protect them from what? Treatment?”); he might insist that he’s been unfairly attacked for trivialities like naked corruption, sexual assault, bigotry, incompetence, laziness, abuse of office; but he’s incapable of appearing “presidential” and he’s far likely to go too, too far.
Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up like the end of The Interview, only without Trump looking measured and controlled at the start. (The Interview had its moments. It also uses the term “honeydicking” at least 7 times more than any person needs to hear it over their lifespan – this is premised on the idea they use it at least 5 times (I didn’t count).)
Robby-D
The math is actually a bit more complicated when you factor in undecideds and “possibly-swayed” voters. If most of the people who have voted early were the ones whose minds would never be changed (this is a likely assumption – if you’re not 100% committed to a candidate you may wait longer, etc.), then higher variance is still possible and likely because that variance was only ever going to come from a very small pool of voters.
Where it becomes harder for the trailer to make up the gap is where previous behaviors caused the undecideds and “swayables” to be decided / swayed. All these lifelong republican voters we’re seeing on Twitter with photos of their straight-blue mail-in ballots, citing his previous debate performance or that he got COVID himself, is a MUCH tougher gap to overcome for Trump.
RaflW
My question is, if half the votes are in, what’s the variance impact of people who would vote Trump if they could be bothered to show up, but will bail because they see a loserman just flailing about tonight? The propensity of voters to stay home is still in play for those who haven’t committed so far.
Kent
@randy khan:
Just one state example. Texas lost 1 million mostly older citizens since 2016 as the death rate in TX is about 250,000/year. At the same time, Texas has registered 4 million new voters since 2016.
I gotta think that trend is in a blue direction.
Kent
And if they are older Trump voters in swing states like PA, are they going to be really motivated to go brave and accelerating pandemic and wait in lines to vote for someone they think is a lost cause anyway?
Trump pushing all his older voters to avoid voting by mail may bite him in the ass since the covid numbers are accelerating in every swing state.
different-church-lady
I gotta say, Julia Louis-Dreyfus is doing a heck of a job moderating this thing.