Lin-Manuel Miranda making a strong pitch to Puerto Rican’s to swing Florida to Biden.
9.
Jeffro
Thanks WaterGirl!
60 Minutes was remarkable not so much for the trumpov and Pence interviews (although my 15-year-old’s reaction to Pence’s boldface lies was something to behold…”EEEEV-IL!”) as the Biden and Harris ones with Norah O’Donnell.
It was shocking to see how O’Donnell started off almost every question to Biden and Harris with a preface using trumpov/Republican framing, AND a video of trumpov spouting nonsense to boot
Almost equally surprising was the cold, skeptical stare she gave each of them, every question, the whole way through.
I mean, I know her taxes are about to go up (so sorry there Norah! you’ve had it GREAT for 4 years under this corrupt administration) but man, isn’t a couple thou a small price to pay if it means your kids are back in school and you can travel your little heart out again? Enjoy that .1%er life?
“Joe Biden makes the case for why he should be President.”
“60 Minutes airs Donald Trump interview with fact checks.”
That is telling.
11.
eddie blake
so yeah, i put this in the wrong thread. i’ll repost here on account of the openness.
early-voted this morning at brooklyn college. long line stretching southwards down bedford ave, but the one for the ballot-drop-off was much shorter, so that’s what me and mz blake went for.
lots of trump-trucks up and down the streets, then a huge MAGA car-parade down ocean parkway heading for a rally in marine park.
more of the chasids/fascists team, and the heshy tishler/ proud boys alliance.
fucked up shit
eta- seems like it’s an organized, multi-state phenomenon.
fucked up shit.
WaterGirl, can you go and delete this post from the medium cool thread, please?
@SiubhanDuinne: I thought Lesley was fine, but like most of us would have really liked to see her drag trumpov through the fine points of his non-existent health care plan.
I mean, he actually claimed it was done, not just almost done. (“Really, mr president? How’d you solve the whole ‘coverage for pre-existing conditions’ thing?)
He also claimed that he was ‘holding on to it, to see what happens after the election’, ie, when SCOTUS rules on the ACA case. (Really, mr president? If it’s so much better, then a) where was it these past four years and b) why not just pass it anyway? why rely on SCOTUS?)
@Baud: Seriously? I thought her outfit was horrific. That big awful bow? The orange and blue together?
I am probably prejudiced because orange and blue are the University colors where I live, and I am not a fan of orange and I am particularly not a fan of the two colors together.
30.
Elizabelle
Billy Porter is a wonderful singer. Only knew him for his style.
2) Who the fuck is Norah O’Donnell, and why is anyone paying her to do a Mean Girls re-enactment?
35.
Raven
@WaterGirl: Hail to the Orange, Hail to the Blue, Hail Alma Mater, Ever So True, So True. . .
36.
sukabi
That pup… Ballroom blitz.. it’s electric…
37.
Kattails
Trump was in NH today, about 78 miles from me, want another zero or two after that to make it far enough. I was raised Lutheran, not that it took, but lately watching any of this sorely tests any shreds of any kind of spirituality I might cling to. I have never felt such contempt in my life for any living human beings as I do for the entire current Republican cartel. Just watched the video that Cole posted on his Twitter feed of Carl Bernstein talking about all these Repubs who are so worried about Donnie trying to hold onto power. Yeah, right, I feel for them.
On top of that I’ve been noticing a squeaky spot in the floor lately, thought it was maybe just temperature and humidity changes, but finally went into the crawl space to look. One of the main beams is cracked horizontally at the point where it rests on the outside wall sonotube. It looks like it’s in shear stress. Realistically fixable with maybe jacking it back up a bit, adding more wood and another column underneath, but not cheap, major PITA. Surely can’t handle it myself.
Like my fucking anxiety isn’t high enough. I’ve been off work and on unemployment since March, age plus asthma, my nurse practitioner does not want me out working retail. Unemployment is going to run out around Christmas. Better get back to the drafting table. I could scream but it freaks out the cats, one of whom has a hyperactive thyroid and the other has a troublesome eye, trying to get it to clear with drops and amoxicillin.
Sorry, just needed to vent since I can’t take a baseball bat to some very deserving GOP nuts.
@eddie blake: WordPress had that pegged as SPAM. All 3 times you posted it. I marked it not spam and released all 3. I imagine you will only want to keep one of them.
I deleted the comment you wanted me to delete in Medium Cool.
@Jeffro: I’m still waiting to see John McCain’s plan for how to find Bin Laden, since he had that plan before the election and didn’t share it with anyone.
*”said he knew how to catch him
41.
eddie blake
oy. guys, sorry about the multiple posts. dunno what was up with that, wasn’t seeing anything from my end.
Joe was great. But lordy, those are the questions you waste your time on of your Nora???
52.
dww44
@debbie: Norah always thinks she has to prove herself. I have never forgiven her over the top antagonistic interview of Valerie Jarret in the last years of the Obama administration. Valerie never lost her cool. I don’t know what her issue is but O’Donnell has to be a closet Republican/conservative.
Stahl was actually much nicer to Trump/Pence than O’Donnell was to either Biden or Harris. Kamala was a in a great mood and when Norah tried to hem her in with a gotcha question about the former’s progressive views maybe being at odds with Biden’s, Kamala just laughed. Genuinely laughed. I could see the tiny fires in Norah’s eyes.
@WaterGirl: She is, will always be, Evil Barbie in our house.
57.
Anya
I wish people were not donating to the Lincoln Project. I feel like their ads are designed to settle personal scores. Did you the see the one they did on Jason Miller? He is such a nothing. Does anyone know who this defuse is? They’re wasting money on stupid ads. And they’re probably taking away money from competitive raises. I don’t believe they’re getting any donations from republicans. They’re just getting it from dem sources.
58.
Raven
Here, just plug this in
President Donald J. Trump, who did what he normally does whenever something on TV irks him. Yes, he tweeted. Dissing O’Donnell’s ratings (“third place anchor”), Trump accused her and 60 Minutes of “doing everything in their power to demean our Country, much to the benefit of the Radical Left Democrats.” He blasted Bright as a “disgruntled employee who supports Dems, fabricates stories and spews lies.”
Our guys were great but the interviewer was awful, right
I think both of those things can be true. I think Kamala has done a good job in every interview I’ve seen. I think she made Nora O’s question sound ridiculous. Which it was.
60.
Jeffro
@WaterGirl: Yes she did. It was almost as bad the constant use of trumpov clips (he got almost as much airtime during Biden & Harris’ interviews as they did!) and framing every question in just the right Republican-pleasing way.
Maybe she’s jealous of Harris, maybe she’s mad about her taxes, maybe those close to her are wingnuts, maybe it’s just CBS News being Fox News-lite these days. But it was just ridiculous.
…when Norah tried to hem her in with a gotcha question about the former’s progressive views maybe being at odds with Biden’s, Kamala just laughed. Genuinely laughed. I could see the tiny fires in Norah’s eyes.
That’s a short clip I could happily watch.
62.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I remember Norah O’Donnell interviewing Cindy Sheehan during the Bush years. O’Donnell seemed personally offended that anyone would be mean to Our President.
63.
Baud
Why do I have a feeling Norah will be trending on Twitter?
So I happen to have the channel on CBS, from earlier today, so the DVR caught the last 15 mins of the 60 mins thing. Basically the Biden/Harris part. Have to agree with the Republican framing of the questions, but Joe/Kamala did a great job knocking that shit down.
@Lapassionara: Thanks so much for saying that, especially the kindness part. That means a lot.
71.
dww44
@Geoboy: Obviously not so many in BJ are inveterate TV news watchers as am I. Norah got the CBS News nightly gig about a year or so ago in an effort to get ratings up for the nightly news. She has been a somewhat frequent correspondent on 60 minutes for some time, going back before her current assignment when she was on CBS Morning News with Gayle King. She has been around for a number of years.
I’ve always thought she hated Democrats. She tries to hide her antagonism but doesn’t succeed. I’m sure she’d say she was being objective if queried about her confrontational style. But, Kamala handled her with great good humor.
i think it’s relatively simple: broadcast media ownership is conservative. broadcast news leans conservative. whether individual reporters are left wing or not is irrelevant. their bosses are NOT left wing.
the entire enterprise leans to the right
eta- yes, WaterGirl, i saw the note. again, thanks.
74.
Baud
Norah co-hosted the CBS Morning Show at one point with Charlie Rose.
@Kattails: with some 3/4″ plywood and a lot of screws, you could reinforce the framing member. A layer or two on either side of the girder could stabilize it. A big “flitch plate,” so to speak.
76.
Raven
@Leto: Well, it would seem to me that should be exactly what we want. Plus something to whine about, what’s not to like?
77.
Kattails
@WaterGirl: Thanks, hugs are fine, I’ll take virtual ones. Like many people seem to be, between COVID and having a lunatic running the country I feel disoriented and distractible just when I need to be attentive. One kitty needs her chewable twice a day and finds all kinds of creative ways to work around whatever I put it in; the other needs a squirt of amoxicillin twice a day and eyedrops three times and I need to remember my blood pressure meds (WTF do you mean I need blood pressure meds I’m fine dammit).
Some self-discipline is in order. Breathe, focus on creative stuff and find time to do something, anything for the GOTV effort. Did letters to voters, but honestly felt that I would prefer the postcards next time, they were more fun and creative, and people can glance at them before tossing; or put them on the fridge; but it was something, and my letters went to Florida. I would do literature drops but don’t have a fancy cell phone so just gotta suck it up and do phone or text banking from the computer. And I was going to wait and vote on election day but might just go to the town clerk’s office early. As Kay said, a vote now is a vote in the bank.
Not only can I identify the landmarks, I can identify many of the individual buildings as well.
79.
frosty
@WaterGirl: Thanks WG queen of WP!! You’ve done so much for this blog!
80.
Jeffro
And another thing: O’Donnell was really rude to Biden about “you know you’re like, SUPER-old…78 if elected, 82 if re-elected…how do you feel about your running mate being able to take over…”
Like, what: he was going to say, “Well, Norah, based on the depth of your condescending sneering, I’m going to have to reconsider my choice for VP here, durrrrrhh…”
O’Donnell’s husband is a restaurant owner/chef, and they have three pre-teen kids, so maybe she’s mad about just how badly the family’s finances and homeschooling have been going. If so, I suggest she think a bit about who she should really be mad at.
81.
Anya
@WaterGirl: I saw on twitter that David Geffen and some hedge fund manager who usually donates to Dems were among their biggest donors.
Does anybody think 5% for Biden is enough in Penn? Then again, Dems are currently killing it in total votes there ?♀️
The fact that it’s appears to be tightening some is concerning
84.
Leto
@WaterGirl: I do wish she (Kamala) would go back further wrt Trupmov’s racism: him and his father being sued by DOJ for housing discrimination, and calling for the continued execution of the Central Park 5. Those two are pretty big.
a great and WONDERFUL feeling. as if a vast WEIGHT was lifted from my shoulders.
it might help.
86.
Matt McIrvin
I think that dog had a #3 hit on the Top 40 charts in 1985.
87.
Zelma
I had the Trump/Pence part on but with the sound muted. I cannot bear to hear that man.
I never watch CBS news so don’t know much about O’Donnell but she sure came across as a hostile interviewer. I mean, you can be tough without using Rethug talking points. OTOH, I thought both Joe and Kamala handled her quite well. My only wish is that when O’Donnell basically asked Kamala if she is a socialist, I wish Kamala had replied, “Do you have any idea what Socialism is?”
@Kattails: I bet you’ll feel better if you get your vote in. Hang in there, I think things are going to get better. Even if they get crazy for a bit, there will be a light at the end of the tunnel.
I’m fine with them. They are getting under Trump’s skin. Everything helps.
96.
Matt McIrvin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): There’s not enough time left for the slope in that line to mean much. Even if some Comey-letter-level bombshell dropped tomorrow, a large fraction of people in the state have already voted.
All that’s really left is some huge polling miss, which is entirely possible, but God knows what direction it’s in. There certainly aren’t visible signs of a loss in Democratic enthusiasm like in 2016. For all we know the polls could be as far off as 2016 in the other direction.
Wouldn’t it be interesting if both candidates were asked the same questions, with a neutral framing, so we could see the responses to the same questions. That would be more useful, I think.
Some of the recent polling in other states is just insane: in Michigan the polls over the past few days range from Biden +13 to Trump +4. (Most show Biden well ahead, though.)
@eddie blake: Yeah, well that’s because their goal is not providing a platform that allows us to evaluate the candidates. They have an agenda, and it’s not helping us.
Excuse me for asking what other people think about politics on a political blog
109.
Emma from FL
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Honestly, at this rate you’ll give yourself a heart-attack before election day. Please let it go for a while. Polls are attention-getters for a brief period; tomorrow there will be another one.
It seems like there could be a way to do that in a non-confrontational manner, too.
“Well, before I answer that question, can you please define what you mean by socialism, so the people listening at home will be able to fairly evaluate my answer.”
it will never happen, but it would be great if it did.
I guess the possibility of a polling miss that I’m worried about
114.
PsiFighter37
@Matt McIrvin: The pro-Trump one is Trafalgar, and I am pretty sure Silver basically caught them fabricating their numbers after examining their crosstabs earlier today.
My take on this: the district-level polling is very clear…Trump is massively underperforming his numbers from 2016, on the magnitude of double digits in most places. I honestly think pollsters are massively trying to overcorrect / not be too far off in case he cheats again, so they simply overweight their state results towards Trump (with national polling being adjusted a bit less). I am becoming convinced based on that polling, plus the early voting, that this isn’t going to be close. Biden is going to win PA/MI/WI all by double digits – mark my words. I think he’s also going to win Texas, and I also think it’s quite possible he wins Texas by a wider margin than he wins Georgia (which I also think will happen). I simply think pollsters have not been conditioned to handle a blowout. Joe is going to get north of 55% of the popular vote, well over 80 million in the popular vote, and absolutely crush Trump. Mark my words.
Just catching up on the twitter play by play for tonight. So one candidate gets asked reasonable questions and has tantrum and storms off and another getting bullshit questions and answering them calmly and methodically and not at all like a whiny little bitch. Yes?— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 26, 2020
117.
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: maybe you can give him a start date, like 72 hours out. Save up some of that worry for a nice final push at the end.
118.
Kattails
@Geminid: Thanks for the note! That was certainly one thought, though I’d be happy to get an extra support in there at some point. I think I know what was changed upstairs to create the shear/dragging stress that’s doing this, otherwise there’s no reason for it. Facing the beam, the outer wall is to the right and the cracks run towards the left and slightly downwards where two shims that rest on the column seem to be keeping this from getting worse, eek.
The floor joists run into this beam so there’s not a lot of room to work around, and a drain pipe close to one side. But yes, a plate and a lot of serious screws. I do want a good carpenter to take a look at it, perhaps we need to do some mitigation on the source of the problem. At least there’s about 4′ of headroom there, it’s not like 18″ on-your-belly. small mercies.
I built this place years ago in hippie days with a couple of other people, there was barely a logging trail in, hence the tubes.
Those who were exposed include Jay Wallace, the president of Fox News Media; Bret Baier, the chief political anchor; Martha MacCallum, the anchor of Fox’s 7 p.m. show, “The Story”; and Dana Perino and Juan Williams, two hosts of “The Five.”
He’s saying — our people can take tough questions from a journalist. Why shouldn’t they? I didn’t watch the show, but that clip with Norah O’Donnell looked just fine to me.
123.
206inKY
@Jeffro: Norah O’Donnell’s interview was the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen on 60 Minutes. That harsh stare made it out like Joe and Kamala were liars, especially the way they cut Kamala’s laughter. Harris wasn’t hiding anything, she was just shocked that O’Donnell was acting like a sociopath.
@Kattails: with some 3/4″ plywood and a lot of screws, you could reinforce the framing member. A layer or two on either side of the girder could stabilize it. A big “flitch plate,” so to speak.
I suspect you would have to jack things level before starting to attach the Flitch Plate to the failed beam. And you might want to use thicker plywood, like two layers glued together…
126.
Jeffro
@PsiFighter37:I am becoming convinced based on that polling, plus the early voting, that this isn’t going to be close. Biden is going to win PA/MI/WI all by double digits – mark my words. I think he’s also going to win Texas, and I also think it’s quite possible he wins Texas by a wider margin than he wins Georgia (which I also think will happen). I simply think pollsters have not been conditioned to handle a blowout. Joe is going to get north of 55% of the popular vote, well over 80 million in the popular vote, and absolutely crush Trump. Mark my words.
I’m down with about 95% of that (PA might be closer, Biden will probably get around 53% of the popular vote imho ;)
But yeah, everyone’s spooked despite all the indicators/polling/etc.
Where are the reputable polls that show trumpov even holding his 2016 states? They don’t exist. And Dems hate answering their phones just as much as Reps!!
We’re loyal to you, Oak Park High Illinois,
We’re orange and blue, Oak Park High Illinois…
129.
Kattails
@eddie blake: I live in a town of 2000 people so in-person voting is a chance to say hi to everyone, and it used to be a bake sale to support the local meals on wheels. I want to stand out with signage as well, so I’d be there anyway. BUT yes, it would be good to get the vote in and then be free to do whatever is needed, poll watching or whatever.
Again, I don’t get you. If she were fawning over him it would look bad. This looks great for him. The slight hostility in the questions gives him a chance to negate the criticism beautifully!
Reasonable Lesley: trumpov storms off, Pence does his usual Pence smooth-lies thing.
BS from Norah: Biden and Harris swat it all down, stick to their platform, are proud of what they’re running for and are not afraid to call out what they’re running against.
Media: “but will Joe Biden REALLY only raise taxes on people making more than $400k? Donald trumpov Jr says Biden’s lying…”
Some pretty powerful musical moments going on here at the concert. Pink just gave a soulful rendition of “What About Us” and now will.i.am and Jennifer Hudson bringing it home with “Where is the love”
He’s on all the cable news networks all the time. He is definitely worth destroying.
135.
PsiFighter37
@Jeffro: Wolf won by 17% and Casey won by 13% in 2018, and if anything, the state has continued to move further away because of the absolute hemorrhaging of votes in the Philly suburbs. Add in (fingers crossed) much better turnout in Philly proper, and I think you are looking a result more in line with what happened in 2018.
Maybe too optimistic, but indications are that Biden is outperforming Obama’s numbers in 2008, and we won PA in 2008 by 10%.
136.
Omnes Omnibus
@Leto: I am not sure my reverse psychology bit is working.
If you’re worried about a repeat of 2016 it’s instructive to look at the EV charts on electoral-vote.com. The guy uses a much cruder polling aggregation method than Nate Silver or even Sam Wang, but that does mean you know what you’re getting. The cool thing is that he has this page where he plots all the presidential cycles from 2004 to 2016, showing states where someone has a lead and also states where someone has a lead outside poll MoE:
This graph makes it look like Biden is just running away with it right now. I mean, doing better than anyone since 2004. Better than Obama’s home stretch in ’08. Now, some of that is based on really slim and possibly transient/illusory leads in places like Texas. But he’s got a buffer.
But the main thing to notice is that in the general election campaign, Biden hasn’t been up and down like Hillary Clinton was. What those charts for 2016 look like to me is that Clinton was in accelerating freefall right at the end after the Comey letter, and it was happening so fast that the state polling just didn’t catch her actually losing in time. But she’d had a couple of previous times when it was close to tied, because of Comey grandstanding about emails and the pneumonia scare. Her support would get big when Trump screwed up, but it was soft. It had also been softening noticeably before Comey’s letter.
Biden’s worst moment after he clinched the nomination was in between Ruth Bader Ginsburg dying and Trump farting all over the screen at the first debate. And he was still way ahead then.
A virus comes spiraling out of the interior of the US’ rising geopolitical foe…
…the foe gets it under control, as does most every other country in the world…
…but not the US, because it affects people of color and/or ‘blue states’ worse at first…
…and also because our president* only cares about not spooking the stock market…
…but then not only does the economy go nowhere all year long…
…but the president* himself gets it…
…but miraculously recovers, then goes on to start holding super-spreader events all around the country, especially in areas where his ‘base’ lives…
…and even infects the staff of his favorite propaganda organization, just before the election!
COME ON, writers! Do better next time. Oh hell, don’t do better…just write me a fun sequel called “Pandemic Aftermath: We Are All Sensible Science-Believing Progressives Now”
142.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): If we are or we aren’t, there isn’t a lot more that we can do than we have been doing. Going hunting for things to worry about doesn’t seem healthy to me.
free your time, free your mind, perhaps lessen your anxiety that you got it done…
that it was going to be counted…
like i said, it was almost a palpable relief
eta- i also think you might wanna get the weight off of the concrete or it’s gonna be a bitch to shift back into position. (probably not gonna be too easy regardless.)
I can’t watch the show, but these clips do not bother me at all.
146.
Jeffro
@206inKY: You know Kamala and her team must have had a good laugh doing Norah imitations afterwards.
“no…no…Julie, you’ve got to hold your head up even higher…get the ANGLE right! LOL”
“Kristen…narrow your eyes a little bit more…ok, that’s good! Now radiate hostility like you’re frickin’ Elsa! BWAH HA HA, that’s awesome!”
147.
Anya
@debbie: I don’t find it useful but I really don’t mind it when they’re trolling Trump. It’s just a waste of resources doing an ad on Jason Miller. Who the fuck cares about this nobody? That money could be used for other things so I really hate it that Dem donors are wasting money on the LP.
148.
Jeffro
@PsiFighter37: I’m good with your numbers and analysis, believe me. I just keep looking at polling averages. We’ll see. I’d love to be wrong. I think Biden’s going to win it, just not by 10%+
149.
Kattails
@J R in WV: thanks guys!! Full service blog indeed. It’s not wildly off yet, but ultimately jacking it up would be best. Add the plates or put another beefy timber underneath with a lolly column. I think the stress is coming from the left toward the center of the house where there is downward thrust from a cupola that should have had more support, (or never been put in but it seemed like a good idea at the time….) translating to lateral stress on the beam.
But at minimum a plate and lolly column would be smart to go into winter with, given snow load up here.
FWIW I doubt Biden campaign staff are telling each other not to worry. They’re probably confident, optimistic, worried and looking for trouble all at the same time.
151.
guachi
For those fretting about the election (and I’m one) The Economist tracker today had major movement across the board towards Biden. It’s the biggest one-day movement I’ve seen in the months of looking at the site.
Today marks the first day Biden has 270+ electoral votes from states where he has a 90+% chance of winning. An additional 55 electoral votes are Lean D (I define as 67-89% chance) – FL, NC, AZ. Forty are Toss-up (34-66%) – GA, IA, OH.
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): Polls can’t give you what you are looking for, Goku. Reassurances can’t give you what you are looking for. Because what you probably want – what we would all like to have – is impossible to get before the election.
There is so much riding on this election, and in spite of the polls there is no guarantee.
We simply cannot be certain of how this will turn out. My suggestion to you is to stop looking at the polls and start spending your time working with a campaign to get out the vote.
You can’t control the outcome, but you can do everything you can possibly do to help get to the outcome you want. That’s it. That’s all you can do.
153.
different-church-lady
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You don’t need to worry PA is “narrowing”, because it really isn’t according to 538 — look back to Sept. and Biden’s lead was narrower.
What we need to worry about is that the polls are massively wrong.
154.
Villago Delenda Est
What a WONDERFUL spirit animal! Just gorgeous!
155.
PsiFighter37
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): I probably gave the Republicans too much credit, in that they would find a way to stop shitting on themselves. We are now basically 8 days out, well over 60 million votes already banked, and a strong likelihood that a state like PA or NC is clearly going to be called for Biden on Election Night (which will mean that functionally, Trump will have lost). Arizona should also be called, if not a bit later.
I feel very, very good about where things are at now.
I think she was trying to LOOK LIKE a very serious journalist. But instead of behaving like a very serious journalist, and doing her homework ahead of time to ask good questions, she appeared to be more concerned with looking like a journalist and not being one.
157.
Villago Delenda Est
@WaterGirl: The only poll that is important is the one on November 3rd.
@different-church-lady: Why do we need to worry about this? Pollsters have made changes to their 2016 models. If anything they are more favorable towards the Orange Person than RL.
What we need to worry about is that the polls are massively wrong.
160.
Omnes Omnibus
@Villago Delenda Est: Actually, it is the poll that ends on November 3. It is going on as we speak. I have already been “polled” and so have many people here.
@Jeffro: “Miraculously” is overselling it. COVID is bad and dangerous, but mercifully most people who catch it don’t die. And the Shiatgibbon had a whole team of doctors and unlimited access to literally the best most cutting edge medicine in the world.
162.
206inKY
@Matt McIrvin: Those charts are extremely reassuring. Thanks for sharing.
163.
different-church-lady
@schrodingers_cat: Because ever since 2016 I have believed that reality distortion fields actually do exist.
164.
Kattails
To get off my house issues, just want to note that in my rural but moderately well off area of the Granite State there are a few of the large obnoxious Trump signs in private fields, which are wildly outnumbered by signage for all the Democratic candidates plus BLM, rainbow, Love over Hate in yard after yard. A couple of the big trump road signs were spray-painted with white letters RACIST and RAPIST. heh.
But I will say there are a ton of unknowns about this election.
First election during a pandemic.
First election with a ton of states voting mostly by mail for the first time.
First election where the sitting president is threatening to use the courts to try to have the election decided by the courts rather than the voters.
First election where the attorney general is not trustworthy.
First election when it’s clear that untrustworthy people will likely hold the majority on the Supreme Court.
You get the idea.
In some ways, that makes the outcome of the election a crapshoot, unless we win big and win hard.
There was also a lot of uncertainty in 2008 because – in spite of the polling – no one really knew whether people would second guess themselves or their choices when they got into the polling booth. Would they really vote for the black man as president?
and unlimited access to literally the best most cutting edge medicine in the world.
apparently Chris Christie got the same drug therapy, I get why the POTUS gets it, even if I chuckled at Michael Che’s line last night. I’m less clear on why the former governor of New Jersey merits the same kind of extraordinary care that other private citizens don’t
167.
Dan B
@Leto: It’s great to hear that Kamala and Joe knocked down the framing. We will need that. And we might need some work stopping white supremacist chaos, in our security apparatus and in our population.
it’s interesting…if you look at 538, NC, FL, AZ, PA, and WI are all leaning well towards Biden. (MI is already off of ‘swing-state’ status)
There appear to only be four truly ‘swing’ states remaining: IA, GA, TX, and OH. All 2016 trumpov states.
Even giving trumpov OH and TX…Biden has 357 EVs. Give him all four and Biden still has 335 EVs.
I know we have like a week left, but if it were me, I’d skip NC-WI and just go for it in IA, GA, and TX (especially because of those Senate races)
170.
Leto
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): so do I, but I also know I did everything I could, within my own power, to help this thing along. I voted, gave money, made sure all my friends were registered, tried to answer people’s many, many, many silly/dumb/serious questions. All I can do now is just wait for the returns. I’m not going to work myself up over every 0.0001% change is polling. Won’t do me any good, won’t change anything. Plus I have better things to do with my time like continue reading the good books I have, chatting with you guys, taking my pup for a walk, riding the bike…
@Dan B: we need a ton of work stopping white nationalist everywhere, from local to federal levels. Personally I feel like it should be in the top ten of priorities because it represents a national security threat, as well as just a fundamental threat to our way of life. But I’m also confident that Biden/Harris won’t ignore because they’re dealing with a million other fires.
173.
Aleta
@Kattails: Jeez, my sympathy. I’ve got house structure issues too. When I think about it it keeps me from sleeping sometimes. The cats, the work, winter weather coming … if you need to vent more, email me any time.
174.
Jeffro
@different-church-lady:ever since 2016 I have believed that reality distortion fields actually do exist.
Only in PLANETARY…but I hear you and have felt the same ;)
175.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
This made me chuckle, too
Tom Nichols @RadioFreeTom ·6m New York State Trump campaign official: “Ms. Trump and Mr. Kushner are always welcome on Staten Island.”
This is exactly what Jared and Ivanka fear.
176.
Omnes Omnibus
@Leto: That is basically the same thing I was saying above.
177.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Dayum. Was not expecting this from Angus King
Niels Lesniewski @nielslesniewski · 36m Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) speaking on the Senate floor tonight: “I don’t want to pack the court. I don’t want to change the number. I don’t want to have to do that, but if all of this rule-breaking is taking place, what does the majority expect? What do they expect?”
if MomSense or any Mainers are about: Has King expressed any opinion about the Gideon-Collins race? My impression is he tries to avoid expressing any opinion about Collins. He’s been on Nicholle Wallace’s show a few times, he never mentions her and Wallace never asks. I wonder if he made that silence a condition of his appearance.
178.
jl
@Jeffro: AZ, FL, NC would probably seal a win election night since get results out quickly. I think that’s a good reason for a serious push there in last week. D’s have so much money, they can do both.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: From your first line, I was somehow expecting bad news/betrayal from Angus King.
Was trying to figure out why that was such a bad thing – maybe scaring right-wing voters into voting or ramping up enthusiasm.
I belatedly came to understand that you were surprised in a good way.
180.
Matt McIrvin
@schrodingers_cat: I’m not entirely convinced that the post-2016 model adjustments mean much, because they’re fighting the last war. They adjusted for education because Trump got all this support from low-education whites in 2016, but the crosstabs I’ve seen this year suggest that Trump’s support is actually coming from higher-education people now. It won’t necessarily make the polling more accurate. A lot of this is just a dark art–there are systematic errors you’ll never be able to catch in advance.
That said, I’d sure rather be in Biden’s position than Trump’s right now.
181.
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: Yup. I saw yours after I posted mine, but I hope he just kind of chills. I understand the anxiety but just need to breath at this point.
My favorite sign spotted on my walk today: Fire the Liar.
184.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@WaterGirl: he has said he opposes eliminating the filibuster, an there are reasons he’s an I and not a D– I don’t know what those are– and I assumed from that he would be against court reform. But good for him.
185.
Kattails
Interesting donation opportunity, from Vote America through ActBlue, setting up a shuttle service to get Navajo voters to the polls, many live 50 miles from a polling station; they hope to mobilize 38,000 voters.
186.
Anya
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I want them to be a pariah in New York that they move to Florida because they can’t go anywhere. I am pretty sure they’ll still be welcomed in Long Island though.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That’s one of the new rotating tags. I have to say, I thought people would be taking note of the new tags, many of which I think are really fun.
190.
Patricia Kayden
Tonight in Wisconsin. First the anti-Black Lives Matter flag flew outside his rallies, then beside the American flag. Now it has replaced the American flag. That’s significant. pic.twitter.com/1IXgo06A3C— Jeff Sharlet (@JeffSharlet) October 25, 2020
191.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: As a general rule, I am against messing with the Court numbers. But, as a general rule, shit like Garland and Coney Barrett doesn’t happen back to back. Turnaround is fair play.
Biden is going to win PA/MI/WI all by double digits – mark my words. I think he’s also going to win Texas, and I also think it’s quite possible he wins Texas by a wider margin than he wins Georgia (which I also think will happen).
The Texas turnout is mindblowing. Early+mail voting is already 80% of the entire 2016 turnout, and there’s almost a week left. It will almost certainly surpass 2016 turnout before the polls even open Election Day. That’s got to be good for us.
193.
Kattails
@Aleta: Thanks! you too, what are you dealing with? You’re in Maine, winter coming on, it was nice last week but gonna be chilly this week. It’s been helpful just to let it out here, and get some kind and helpful responses. I get the not sleeping bit. Take care of yourself.
“Are you a socialist” is a bullshit question they ask dems every election. It’s both a false binary choice and a false hierarchical choice. At the top of the hierarchy is our democratic constitution and in its prologue it states its goals of support for the general welfare and liberty. Socialism, Capitalism are just tools like law, education, police, that are used to support those goals in a manner a majority of democratic voters decide.
I would write this up better if I had a keyboard.
Anyhow, bottom line , I am not a capitalist or socialist, but a constitutional pragmatist. Whatever people vote for, barring too much intrusion on liberty, is what I am for
[Senator King] has said he opposes eliminating the filibuster, an there are reasons he’s an I and not a D– I don’t know what those are– and I assumed from that he would be against court reform. But good for him.
He’s pretty clear that he *is* against court reform, but the Covid Barrett process is so outrageous he feels he’ll be forced to do it. Which is pretty fair, and it’s good that even somebody temperamentally inclined to be a doormat for this kind of abuse thinks this is the time to stand up.
199.
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: Do you think they should stay static? If we expand federal courts at all levels, not just the SC, what’s your views on that? Mainly from the perspective of what I’ve seen a number of you law types here discuss: we don’t have enough judges at all levels and that’s a big reason for the backlog/slow speed of the courts.
@J R in WV: Its always best if you can dig a hole, pour sakrete, have ready a 6×6 post with a couple 2×10 squares attached to the bottom to spread the load, and jack the girder back up before posting it and reinforcing it. But if the girder is cracked, reinforcing it as it sits can be a good temporary repair that buys some time to make a good plan and prepare for the permanent fix.
202.
Matt McIrvin
@PsiFighter37: There was one that was even more pro-Trump than Trafalgar–it was some operation I’d never heard of.
203.
Mousebumples
I’m cautiously optimistic about Biden’s chances, but I keep 2 things in mind –
1) 2016
2) How much I always want my sports teams to step on the proverbial neck of their opponents when they’re up late in the game.
I saw a decent sports analogy on twitter today that I won’t be able to find again, so I’ll paraphrase –
We’re up 10 runs going into the bottom of the 9th. We *should* win this. But it’s not over yet.
Or to quote (i think) Packers coach Matt LeFleur from last season – all gas, no fucking breaks.
Keep up the GOTV efforts, and work through this. Hopefully our national nightmare is almost through.
I know we have like a week left, but if it were me, I’d skip NC-WI and just go for it in IA, GA, and TX (especially because of those Senate races)
I wouldn’t. Because for a win, all you need is 270. Better to run up the score in the states where you have the best chance of getting to 270 than neglecting those to go for the showier win. Your predictions could be overconfident.
Sure, put some money in IA, GA and TX. You want to make the other guy sweat. But you don’t do anything that even approaches betting the farm on them.
206.
jl
At 538 the tiny dinky slide in Biden support has stopped for now. But from comments and links here, and news reports, seems a growing divergence between big poll aggregaters and forecast models versus local polls. Silver claims he adjusts for BS, mostly GOP spam polls, but I wonder how well it is working. A lot more Rasmussen and more biased low quality GOP polls over last week.
@Mousebumples: The nightmare isn’t over until January at the earliest. And that’s just the Shiatgibbon being removed. COVID isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
@Leto: I don’t think that there are enough judges on the lower courts and those numbers need to be seriously increased. They do the heavy lifting of the federal system. The Supremes were something we could live with. In my mind, it wasn’t a problem that was worth expending a lot of political capital on. Then McConell’s double whammy with Garland and then Coney Barrett, and I’m like “Fuck you, and fuck her too.” If you know what I mean. I am uncomfortable with messing with institutions as a rule, but, in this case, we didn’t start it but we can finish it.
I haven’t heard him say anything about that race. He used to say Susie was a very good Senator but I haven’t heard him say anything positive about her in a few years.
211.
guachi
Just checked the 2016 odds from 538. Clinton won every electoral vote where she had an 85% chance of winning or greater. The biggest loss was Wisconsin where she had an 84% chance of winning. Her lowest win chance in a state she won was Nevada with a 58% chance of winning.
Biden has 278 electoral votes from places where he has an 85% chance of winning or greater. Pennsylvania is at 86%. It has the potential to be really close as it wouldn’t take much for Trump to win FL, AZ, NC, ME2, IA, GA, OH, TX. It also wouldn’t take much for Biden to win those, either.
@debbie: Norah always thinks she has to prove herself. I have never forgiven her over the top antagonistic interview of Valerie Jarret in the last years of the Obama administration. Valerie never lost her cool. I don’t know what her issue is but O’Donnell has to be a closet Republican/conservative.
Aren’t they all are? Or their bosses are? The press tends to always use the Republican framing for any questions. They never use the Democratic framing when talking to Republicans. They instead challenge Republican framing or they bring in questions from “the general public” about whatever “concerns” they might have.
The fact that it’s appears to be tightening some is concerning
It always seems to tighten – we had similar things happen 4 years back.
216.
Steeplejack
And there it is. Putin said today that he saw nothing criminal in Hunter Biden's past business ties with Ukraine or Russia, in a sharp break with Trump.
@Aleta: Yes, it’s one of the things I did when the COVID money came through, got it back in July, all stacked and under cover. Four cords is around $900 & without that money the Dems pushed through on the first round I would have been really struggling. That and some food in the freezer.
218.
MisterForkbeard
@Steeplejack: Nah. This is so Trumps people can claim they’re not pushing Russian disinformation that’s all.
@Anya: I care about Jason Miller. That “nobody” is damned dangerous. And lashing him to Trump is fine by me.
220.
Jeffro
@Matt McIrvin:the crosstabs I’ve seen this year suggest that Trump’s support is actually coming from higher-education people now. It won’t necessarily make the polling more accurate
I’ll be very interested to see – if polling outfits and researchers can carve these kinds of things out of post-election data – in the following numbers from the 2020 election:
trumpov lost X % of his 2016 base to Biden and Y % chose to sit out 2020 (only voting down-ballot), while an additional Z % of infrequent R voters came in off the sidelines (after he showed his racist ‘cred’) and voted for him in 2020
My best guess is that X = 10% and Y = 10% with Z = 10%.
On the D side, Biden grabbed that X and brought in his(our) own Z coming in off the sidelines of 15-20%.
Whatever. It’ll be fascinating to see, provided that I’m not busy packing my bags for Canada or New Zealand. ;)
The fact that it’s appears to be tightening some is concerning
Feel free to be concerned. Everyone else will let you do the worrying.
222.
Aleta
@guachi: He’s not going to win ME2. But even if he did (they sure are trying for it — Pence, Tr and both sons) that’s only 1 EV right? Cause he won’t get the popular vote in ME, no fucking way.
223.
Jeffro
@Fair Economist:He’s pretty clear that he *is* against court reform, but the Covid Barrett process is so outrageous he feels he’ll be forced to do it. Which is pretty fair, and it’s good that even somebody temperamentally inclined to be a doormat for this kind of abuse thinks this is the time to stand up.
I like Biden’s idea of a commission that will make recommendations he just has – HAS! ;) – to follow. Expand the federal judiciary by 50%. Add 2 (cough4cough) justices to SCOTUS. And institute rules/laws that set higher standards for federal judges. If you’ve never made an appeal…maybe you shouldn’t be a judge. If you haven’t already served 10+ years in the federal courts…maybe you shouldn’t be eligible for SCOTUS. Whatever.
Slow them down. Unqualified judges have no place in our nation’s courts.
224.
Aleta
@Kattails: Well if there’s 4 days of below-freezing weather I can mail you 5 lbs of frozen blueberries, because I have too much. I figure the mail and UPS is slow now so needs 4 days of cold ….
Now I know it’s rather unlikely that CA will be an important state, the chances of republicans getting more than 25-30% is slim at best, mail in ballots will not finish counting till 11/20, 17 days after voting closes. As long as your ballot is postmarked by 8pm 11/3 and gets in before 11/20 it counts. Now it shouldn’t take that long but because of the post office the deadline for arrival has changed. Anyway they can’t close out counting till then because remember that they mailed everyone registered a ballot. I’m doubting there will be 100% participation.
227.
Mousebumples
@Geoduck: you’re 100%right that inauguration day is when things can start to actually improve but winning (and winning big) will tell me there’s a light ahead, just got to power through for a bit longer.
@gwangung: The prevent defense only prevents you from winning, etc. We could trade sports proverbs break and forth endlessly on this one. ?
@Omnes Omnibus: yup. I want to win, yes, but to be wholesale repudiation of their non science, anti everything politics. The rot is deep in the Republican Party. Can’t get rid of it all this year (Sen. Johnson, we’re coming for you in 2022),but we can excise a lot – and we should!
228.
Ksmiami
@Baud: to paraphrase Churchill, in the next weeks and months we will face adversity and our own doubts but let me be clear we will fight the GOP on the seas, we will fight them on the lands and in the cities and we will never surrender to their dark forces.
in my mind, we must crush every Republican today and tomorrow and use their defeat as future warnings That fascist autocracy will never work here…
229.
Jeffro
@Matt McIrvin: a 270 EV win this time would be a disaster – it would just be fodder for “trumpov wuz robbed!!!” efforts both legal and extra legal.
He’s got those five in the bank. Ok, maybe pile on in Florida, just to be sure. But grab IA, GA, or TX and show the country that this clown has minimal support.
230.
Matt McIrvin
@206inKY: It’s interesting looking back at those charts now, in light of everything that’s happened.
I found the Obama-Romney plot reassuring in 2012, on the basis of the previous cycles. I shouldn’t have. Obama’s state polling lead was persistent but thin all year, thinner even than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. As Kay mentioned earlier, he actually outperformed his polls almost everywhere, though the state wins were such that this plot predicted his EV margin essentially precisely. That was a fluke. He could easily have lost after the first debate.
Obama was ahead through almost all of 2008, as well, but it was only after the big financial crash and the debates that his lead really got solid. McCain’s convention/Sarah Palin bounce actually put him in the lead for a fleeting moment, then Wall Street fell in.
And 2004 was just an incredible shitshow, but Kerry did have a chance. He almost pulled it off!
@Jeffro: If you’ve never made an appeal…maybe you shouldn’t be a judge.
What does that even mean? The best litigator aren’t necessarily the best judges. The skill sets overlap, but are not the same. Trial lawyers are often terrible appellate litigators and vice versa. Good trial judges are frequently not suited for the appellate bench.
236.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
Is it too late to donate money to make a difference? I guess that’s something I could do
I’d love to move to NZ but that ship sailed almost 2 decades ago. I don’t have anywhere near enough to buy my way in (you have to deposit a rather large sum in an NZ bank) or have a come, found a job and held it for a year before you turn 54. I found this out when I was about 6 months into my 53rd yr. I haven’t looked lately at the requirements…. Now Costa Rica sounds good and SS was enough for me to gain permeant entry…. and actually live!
238.
MisterForkbeard
@Jeffro: Right there with you on travelling. We’ve done some of the early homework, and if Trump wins we’re pretty eligible to move to Ireland, Canada, and NZ.
Ireland’s iffy because of Brexit, but either of the other two look great. I could even keep my same job in Canada.
239.
Kattails
@Aleta: them’s a lot of blueberries. Jam? Blueberry syrup? Not sure they’d make it but sweet of you to think of me!
So you think Mainers are going to split their tickets or going to kick out Collins?
@Kattails: If you set your column or post on a concrete pad, make the pad thick, ideally 12″, as there will be a point load. Some 1/2″ horizontal rebar in the concrete is good, two pieces one way, two more the other. Placing the bar 1/3 of pad depth from the bottom gives the most strength. Good luck on this project. Hopefully you can get it done yourself, maybe with some help. This kind of work is not a lot of fun, but it’s worth doing if you can. Contractors typically charge a lot for these jobs, not so much because it is so difficult as because it is so essential.
242.
Matt McIrvin
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): It’s absolutely not too late to donate. Honestly that is mostly what I’ve been doing because I have more money than sales chops or mental stability. ActBlue is your friend.
I’m more worried about the Senate right now, so I’ve been giving to various crucial Senate races; DougJ’s efforts are worth reviewing, and there’s also the “moneyball” links on election.princeton.edu.
243.
Another Scott
Larger-than-life and highly litigious coal magnate Bob Murray has died. For many reporters on the energy beat, a threat of a lawsuit from Murray was a sort of rite of passage. (a?) https://t.co/29yk8RPwHm
The German physicist Max Planck said that science advances one funeral at a time. Or more precisely: “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.”
as it wouldn’t take much for Trump to win FL, AZ, NC, ME2, IA, GA, OH, TX.
But those are all states he won in 2016, and if he loses even one of those it gets very hard for him to get 270.
245.
catclub
@Kattails: Blueberries in October! Our season in Mississippi for them ends in June. Likewise blackberries.
246.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): No. If it comes to it, they can use the money for the court fights that may come.
247.
dww44
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well, just perhaps the Donald owed him that level of care, given that he is responsible for giving it to him.
248.
Aleta
@Kattails: I think Biden will get Maine’s 4 EV. Trump and Pence are trying really hard for the 2nd district (iirc the polls say Biden leads by around 10 there) but at the least Biden will get 3 for sure. Collins could win. I think the polls say Gideon leads by some (I don’t remember exactly) but the Rs are desperate for the seat and corrupt and they cheat. It will be heartbreaking and soul crushing if Collins stays.
249.
Aleta
@Kattails: If they stay frozen you’d have a few months of fruit every morning. If they don’t you’d have to cook them and freeze it? I’d mail them w/ freezer packs and insulation. No prob….
If I’m reading things right, Dollar Store Mussolini needs to win all of FL, NC, PA, AZ while losing none of IA, GA, OH, TX. I like the odds for the guy who needs to win one, maybe two, of those to win the election.
It will be heartbreaking and soul crushing if Collins stays.
To put it mildly….
I want her out so badly I can taste it. Just not having to listen to her whine anymore will be an improvement in our quality of life.
253.
sfinny
Early voting started on Saturday in Westchester County, NY. Early voting is new here and I have been recommending it to as many people as possible. But even I was amazed that the early voting site in my town had a line down the road on the first day. And then the second day. I’ll keep checking and vote early at some point. I’m working as an election inspector in the next town over on 11/3 so I need to get my vote done before then. But the turnout is amazing. I worked the primary in 2019 and we had 4 voters the whole day. Big difference.
ActBlue is going to hit 7 billion 468 million soon, like it just did.
It hit 7 billion this month. I think you were the one that told me the date it did, but no matter, it’s screaming along. I think it’s an amazing indicator of the level of support for dems.
255.
Matt McIrvin
@Aleta: In the Maine Senate race, there’s also the effect of ranked-choice voting to consider. There’s an independent candidate, Lisa Savage, who gets a few % of support in these polls–but Savage is explicitly telling her supporters to put Gideon as their second choice. If they do what she says, her votes are effectively Sara Gideon votes.
Did you see this video from before? If you have the time you can still volunteer to do what he’s doing.
Oct 24, Mandy Patinkin @PatinkinMandy
From my #PhoneBanking session a couple weeks ago. I SAVED A VOTE by helping Wendy fix her incorrect registration! These last two weekends are the most crucial for #GOTV efforts. Sign up and make calls starting today. We need you. http://thelastweekends.org/doit Let’s get to work!
There’s more at stake right now than our comfort. These calls literally can save us from four more years of Trump. Know that thousands of people are making these phone calls with you and turning out thousands more Biden votes. If you’ve resisted because you’re uncomfortable……
Know that you’re in good company with everyone else. This is the work right now. To be uncomfortable and make these phone calls to get out the vote. If you’ve already been doing this stay with it. If you haven’t joined in, start today. These weekends are precious and vital.
And remember a lot of these phone banking efforts focus your calls to GOTV in swing states no matter where you are calling from. So if you live in an already super blue state and think you can’t help flip a swing state that is poppy cock.
@Geminid: thanks, not sure if you’ll catch this. I’m lucky to know a really good guy who will do what needs to be done for the fairest possible price, which makes it harder to get ahold of him. I’ve got a pretty good idea of the technique but would rather have someone who’s really competent jacking that beam back up. I just don’t have the heavy duty equipment, drills, saws and so on. I’m 69 and female, not a wimp but…
Funny story, the original tubes are pretty large and the ground slopes. In the taller ones, another friend who restores cars donated some metal, I believe a Chevy bumper went into one post as rebar.
260.
Kattails
@Aleta: I did put up a few pints of local blues. Sounds like you are overrun, but it would be expensive to ship and if they didn’t make it I would need to cook them down, they’d be swimming when they got here. Maybe revisit this in a month or two when it get colder, if you’re still looking to unload, I’d pay for shipping. It’s getting late anyway, I can’t quite work out the logistics at this point.
King Arthur has a fabulous blueberry muffin recipe here.
261.
PIGL
@WaterGirl: Thank you for this. Let me take this moment to acknowledge that you are pretty amazing. I wish I could be more like you.
WaterGirl
I completely forgot about 60 minutes, never set Tivo to record it. Oh well.
Baud
Leslie Stahl sings too?
debbie
@WaterGirl:
Trump came across like an idiot, Nora was antagonistic, and Kamala bluntly said Trump was a racist.
WaterGirl
@debbie: What does Nora O’Donnell have to do with it? Is she on 60 minutes now? Ugh.
TaMara (HFG)
@debbie: So a Sunday.
mali muso
Enjoying the concert!
WaterGirl
@Baud: I bet she’s scary when she sings, too. //
mali muso
Lin-Manuel Miranda making a strong pitch to Puerto Rican’s to swing Florida to Biden.
Jeffro
Thanks WaterGirl!
60 Minutes was remarkable not so much for the trumpov and Pence interviews (although my 15-year-old’s reaction to Pence’s boldface lies was something to behold…”EEEEV-IL!”) as the Biden and Harris ones with Norah O’Donnell.
It was shocking to see how O’Donnell started off almost every question to Biden and Harris with a preface using trumpov/Republican framing, AND a video of trumpov spouting nonsense to boot
Almost equally surprising was the cold, skeptical stare she gave each of them, every question, the whole way through.
I mean, I know her taxes are about to go up (so sorry there Norah! you’ve had it GREAT for 4 years under this corrupt administration) but man, isn’t a couple thou a small price to pay if it means your kids are back in school and you can travel your little heart out again? Enjoy that .1%er life?
WaterGirl
“Joe Biden makes the case for why he should be President.”
“60 Minutes airs Donald Trump interview with fact checks.”
That is telling.
eddie blake
so yeah, i put this in the wrong thread. i’ll repost here on account of the openness.
early-voted this morning at brooklyn college. long line stretching southwards down bedford ave, but the one for the ballot-drop-off was much shorter, so that’s what me and mz blake went for.
lots of trump-trucks up and down the streets, then a huge MAGA car-parade down ocean parkway heading for a rally in marine park.
more of the chasids/fascists team, and the heshy tishler/ proud boys alliance.
fucked up shit
eta- seems like it’s an organized, multi-state phenomenon.
fucked up shit.
WaterGirl, can you go and delete this post from the medium cool thread, please?
Baud
@Jeffro:
Glad I skipped it.
SiubhanDuinne
Hadn’t seen Norah O’Donnell in years. Will be happy, after tonight, to not see her again.
Have always liked Lesley Stahl, though.
Baud
Nora seems to have made an impression.
How did Joe and Kam do?
WaterGirl
@mali muso: I love Lin-Manuel Miranda. I found a link and watched what he said. He’s so great. Such an effective
speechcommunicator.WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: How the hell did she get on 60 Minutes? I thought that was for journalists.
edit: She being Nora O.
edit 2: I don’t think males get a slot on 60 minutes or on TV for being “perky”.
Baud
eddie blake
that’s weird
eta- oh, look at that, my comment posted this time.
weird.
Jeffro
@Baud: I should have skipped it, that’s for sure. As if I needed more reasons to complain about the media. ;)
WaterGirl
@eddie blake: what’s weird?
MazeDancer
@WaterGirl:
Twitter is full of clips.
Trump being repulsive
Norah snooting down her nose at Kamala
Those were enough to let me know I don’t want to playback my DVR.
WaterGirl
@MazeDancer: I feel so much better about having missed it, then.
Baud
@MazeDancer:
Kamala looks good in that outfit.
Jeffro
@SiubhanDuinne: I thought Lesley was fine, but like most of us would have really liked to see her drag trumpov through the fine points of his non-existent health care plan.
I mean, he actually claimed it was done, not just almost done. (“Really, mr president? How’d you solve the whole ‘coverage for pre-existing conditions’ thing?)
He also claimed that he was ‘holding on to it, to see what happens after the election’, ie, when SCOTUS rules on the ACA case. (Really, mr president? If it’s so much better, then a) where was it these past four years and b) why not just pass it anyway? why rely on SCOTUS?)
Total whiny flam-flam artist.
eddie blake
@WaterGirl:
i keep trying to re-post the off-topic comment i put on the medium cool thread about my voting experience today, and it keeps getting eaten.
WaterGirl
@MazeDancer: Resting bitch face from Nora O. Am I allowed to say that?
Raven
Trumps is a jackass for bitching about his interview but, hell yes, let er rip on this one.
WaterGirl
@Raven:
Not sure what you are saying here.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Seriously? I thought her outfit was horrific. That big awful bow? The orange and blue together?
I am probably prejudiced because orange and blue are the University colors where I live, and I am not a fan of orange and I am particularly not a fan of the two colors together.
Elizabelle
Billy Porter is a wonderful singer. Only knew him for his style.
Norah O’Donnell can suck it. Phony.
MazeDancer
Joe is fabulous.
60 Minutes clip
How did Norah get a job?
dmsilev
@SiubhanDuinne:
Wasn’t she the one who got nicknamed “Noron” by the Bush-era blogosphere?
Baud
@WaterGirl:
I liked it. First thing I noticed.
Geoboy
1) Beer is my spirit animal.
2) Who the fuck is Norah O’Donnell, and why is anyone paying her to do a Mean Girls re-enactment?
Raven
@WaterGirl: Hail to the Orange, Hail to the Blue, Hail Alma Mater, Ever So True, So True. . .
sukabi
That pup… Ballroom blitz.. it’s electric…
Kattails
Trump was in NH today, about 78 miles from me, want another zero or two after that to make it far enough. I was raised Lutheran, not that it took, but lately watching any of this sorely tests any shreds of any kind of spirituality I might cling to. I have never felt such contempt in my life for any living human beings as I do for the entire current Republican cartel. Just watched the video that Cole posted on his Twitter feed of Carl Bernstein talking about all these Repubs who are so worried about Donnie trying to hold onto power. Yeah, right, I feel for them.
On top of that I’ve been noticing a squeaky spot in the floor lately, thought it was maybe just temperature and humidity changes, but finally went into the crawl space to look. One of the main beams is cracked horizontally at the point where it rests on the outside wall sonotube. It looks like it’s in shear stress. Realistically fixable with maybe jacking it back up a bit, adding more wood and another column underneath, but not cheap, major PITA. Surely can’t handle it myself.
Like my fucking anxiety isn’t high enough. I’ve been off work and on unemployment since March, age plus asthma, my nurse practitioner does not want me out working retail. Unemployment is going to run out around Christmas. Better get back to the drafting table. I could scream but it freaks out the cats, one of whom has a hyperactive thyroid and the other has a troublesome eye, trying to get it to clear with drops and amoxicillin.
Sorry, just needed to vent since I can’t take a baseball bat to some very deserving GOP nuts.
WaterGirl
@eddie blake: WordPress had that pegged as SPAM. All 3 times you posted it. I marked it not spam and released all 3. I imagine you will only want to keep one of them.
I deleted the comment you wanted me to delete in Medium Cool.
MazeDancer
@WaterGirl: Yes, you are allowed.
Though, possibly could be Frozen Botox Face.
Norah is impossibly unskilled.
WaterGirl
@Jeffro: I’m still waiting to see John McCain’s plan for how to find Bin Laden, since he had that plan before the election and didn’t share it with anyone.
*”said he knew how to catch him
eddie blake
oy. guys, sorry about the multiple posts. dunno what was up with that, wasn’t seeing anything from my end.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
His plan was to elect Barack Obama.
Anya
@MazeDancer: When did Trump say he “denounces racism and white supremacy”? Why is Nora O’Donald lying?
WaterGirl
@Geoboy: I love that picture so much.
Raven
@WaterGirl: Our guys were great but the interviewer was awful, right
eddie blake
@WaterGirl:
thanks very much!
dunno what was up with that.
Baud
@Anya:
I think he’s mouthed the words under his breath a few times.
Elizabelle
@dmsilev: Noron it is. Gag.
WaterGirl
@Kattails: I’m sorry. All that is enough to wear anyone down. I would give you a hug if i could. (If you like hugs.)
WaterGirl
@MazeDancer: Not just botox, she had a mean look in her eyes.
Baud
@MazeDancer:
Joe was great. But lordy, those are the questions you waste your time on of your Nora???
dww44
@debbie: Norah always thinks she has to prove herself. I have never forgiven her over the top antagonistic interview of Valerie Jarret in the last years of the Obama administration. Valerie never lost her cool. I don’t know what her issue is but O’Donnell has to be a closet Republican/conservative.
Stahl was actually much nicer to Trump/Pence than O’Donnell was to either Biden or Harris. Kamala was a in a great mood and when Norah tried to hem her in with a gotcha question about the former’s progressive views maybe being at odds with Biden’s, Kamala just laughed. Genuinely laughed. I could see the tiny fires in Norah’s eyes.
WaterGirl
@eddie blake: did you see my note that WP put you in spam? I just deleted the extra two comments. It’s all good. Nothing you did.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Then I approve of that plan. Wholeheartedly!
Baud
@WaterGirl: It worked!
dexwood
@WaterGirl: She is, will always be, Evil Barbie in our house.
Anya
I wish people were not donating to the Lincoln Project. I feel like their ads are designed to settle personal scores. Did you the see the one they did on Jason Miller? He is such a nothing. Does anyone know who this defuse is? They’re wasting money on stupid ads. And they’re probably taking away money from competitive raises. I don’t believe they’re getting any donations from republicans. They’re just getting it from dem sources.
Raven
Here, just plug this in
WaterGirl
@Raven:
I think both of those things can be true. I think Kamala has done a good job in every interview I’ve seen. I think she made Nora O’s question sound ridiculous. Which it was.
Jeffro
@WaterGirl: Yes she did. It was almost as bad the constant use of trumpov clips (he got almost as much airtime during Biden & Harris’ interviews as they did!) and framing every question in just the right Republican-pleasing way.
Maybe she’s jealous of Harris, maybe she’s mad about her taxes, maybe those close to her are wingnuts, maybe it’s just CBS News being Fox News-lite these days. But it was just ridiculous.
WaterGirl
@dww44:
That’s a short clip I could happily watch.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I remember Norah O’Donnell interviewing Cindy Sheehan during the Bush years. O’Donnell seemed personally offended that anyone would be mean to Our President.
Baud
Why do I have a feeling Norah will be trending on Twitter?
WaterGirl
@Anya: I don’t think we know where their money is coming from. I hope Dems are smart enough not to be giving them $$, but who knows.
Lapassionara
@WaterGirl: thank you for all the things you do to keep this blog going. I appreciate your good work and your kindness.
Anya
@Baud: She should’ve said “Under duress, Trump has denounced racism and white supremacy”
WaterGirl
@Baud: I hope it won’t be trending in a good way. And I see that I have been spelling her name wrong.
Or maybe it’s really Nora and she is spelling it wrong. :-)
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Just guessing based on the reaction here.
Leto
So I happen to have the channel on CBS, from earlier today, so the DVR caught the last 15 mins of the 60 mins thing. Basically the Biden/Harris part. Have to agree with the Republican framing of the questions, but Joe/Kamala did a great job knocking that shit down.
WaterGirl
@Lapassionara: Thanks so much for saying that, especially the kindness part. That means a lot.
dww44
@Geoboy: Obviously not so many in BJ are inveterate TV news watchers as am I. Norah got the CBS News nightly gig about a year or so ago in an effort to get ratings up for the nightly news. She has been a somewhat frequent correspondent on 60 minutes for some time, going back before her current assignment when she was on CBS Morning News with Gayle King. She has been around for a number of years.
I’ve always thought she hated Democrats. She tries to hide her antagonism but doesn’t succeed. I’m sure she’d say she was being objective if queried about her confrontational style. But, Kamala handled her with great good humor.
Ruckus
@MazeDancer:
So a republican then……
eddie blake
i think it’s relatively simple: broadcast media ownership is conservative. broadcast news leans conservative. whether individual reporters are left wing or not is irrelevant. their bosses are NOT left wing.
the entire enterprise leans to the right
eta- yes, WaterGirl, i saw the note. again, thanks.
Baud
Norah co-hosted the CBS Morning Show at one point with Charlie Rose.
Geminid
@Kattails: with some 3/4″ plywood and a lot of screws, you could reinforce the framing member. A layer or two on either side of the girder could stabilize it. A big “flitch plate,” so to speak.
Raven
@Leto: Well, it would seem to me that should be exactly what we want. Plus something to whine about, what’s not to like?
Kattails
@WaterGirl: Thanks, hugs are fine, I’ll take virtual ones. Like many people seem to be, between COVID and having a lunatic running the country I feel disoriented and distractible just when I need to be attentive. One kitty needs her chewable twice a day and finds all kinds of creative ways to work around whatever I put it in; the other needs a squirt of amoxicillin twice a day and eyedrops three times and I need to remember my blood pressure meds (WTF do you mean I need blood pressure meds I’m fine dammit).
Some self-discipline is in order. Breathe, focus on creative stuff and find time to do something, anything for the GOTV effort. Did letters to voters, but honestly felt that I would prefer the postcards next time, they were more fun and creative, and people can glance at them before tossing; or put them on the fridge; but it was something, and my letters went to Florida. I would do literature drops but don’t have a fancy cell phone so just gotta suck it up and do phone or text banking from the computer. And I was going to wait and vote on election day but might just go to the town clerk’s office early. As Kay said, a vote now is a vote in the bank.
schrodingers_cat
Doggie has a great hairstyle.
Mood, my favorite place in the world
Not only can I identify the landmarks, I can identify many of the individual buildings as well.
frosty
@WaterGirl: Thanks WG queen of WP!! You’ve done so much for this blog!
Jeffro
And another thing: O’Donnell was really rude to Biden about “you know you’re like, SUPER-old…78 if elected, 82 if re-elected…how do you feel about your running mate being able to take over…”
Like, what: he was going to say, “Well, Norah, based on the depth of your condescending sneering, I’m going to have to reconsider my choice for VP here, durrrrrhh…”
O’Donnell’s husband is a restaurant owner/chef, and they have three pre-teen kids, so maybe she’s mad about just how badly the family’s finances and homeschooling have been going. If so, I suggest she think a bit about who she should really be mad at.
Anya
@WaterGirl: I saw on twitter that David Geffen and some hedge fund manager who usually donates to Dems were among their biggest donors.
Lapassionara
@WaterGirl: ?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Pennsylvania 538 Polling
Does anybody think 5% for Biden is enough in Penn? Then again, Dems are currently killing it in total votes there ?♀️
The fact that it’s appears to be tightening some is concerning
Leto
@WaterGirl: I do wish she (Kamala) would go back further wrt Trupmov’s racism: him and his father being sued by DOJ for housing discrimination, and calling for the continued execution of the Central Park 5. Those two are pretty big.
eddie blake
@Kattails:
early-voting? getting it DONE?
a great and WONDERFUL feeling. as if a vast WEIGHT was lifted from my shoulders.
it might help.
Matt McIrvin
I think that dog had a #3 hit on the Top 40 charts in 1985.
Zelma
I had the Trump/Pence part on but with the sound muted. I cannot bear to hear that man.
I never watch CBS news so don’t know much about O’Donnell but she sure came across as a hostile interviewer. I mean, you can be tough without using Rethug talking points. OTOH, I thought both Joe and Kamala handled her quite well. My only wish is that when O’Donnell basically asked Kamala if she is a socialist, I wish Kamala had replied, “Do you have any idea what Socialism is?”
debbie
@dww44:
Thanks. I was listening, not watching, so I missed all that.
WaterGirl
@Kattails: I bet you’ll feel better if you get your vote in. Hang in there, I think things are going to get better. Even if they get crazy for a bit, there will be a light at the end of the tunnel.
Raven
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Back at it huh?
WaterGirl
@Anya: Well, that’s really stupid of them, if that’s true. Ugh.
eddie blake
@WaterGirl:
i stand with my fellow jackals.
thank you for all your work and efforts. it’s very appreciated.
WaterGirl
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): 5% is not enough in PA in my opinion, because I think a lot of mail-in ballots are being rejected.
Leto
@Raven: true, it’s a win/win on our part. Endless supply of BJ posts/talking points ;)
debbie
@Anya:
I’m fine with them. They are getting under Trump’s skin. Everything helps.
Matt McIrvin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): There’s not enough time left for the slope in that line to mean much. Even if some Comey-letter-level bombshell dropped tomorrow, a large fraction of people in the state have already voted.
All that’s really left is some huge polling miss, which is entirely possible, but God knows what direction it’s in. There certainly aren’t visible signs of a loss in Democratic enthusiasm like in 2016. For all we know the polls could be as far off as 2016 in the other direction.
Raven
@Leto: :)
Raven
@Matt McIrvin: But but but. . . .
dww44
@eddie blake: Agreed.
WaterGirl
Wouldn’t it be interesting if both candidates were asked the same questions, with a neutral framing, so we could see the responses to the same questions. That would be more useful, I think.
schrodingers_cat
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You need a news a a social media detox for several days
debbie
@Raven:
Deja vu all over again!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): before 2016, five points was considered a solid lead
eddie blake
@WaterGirl:
kinda don’t think the networks want that.
Matt McIrvin
Some of the recent polling in other states is just insane: in Michigan the polls over the past few days range from Biden +13 to Trump +4. (Most show Biden well ahead, though.)
patrick II
@Zelma:
I am with you on the socialist question.
WaterGirl
@eddie blake: Yeah, well that’s because their goal is not providing a platform that allows us to evaluate the candidates. They have an agenda, and it’s not helping us.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Raven:
Excuse me for asking what other people think about politics on a political blog
Emma from FL
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Honestly, at this rate you’ll give yourself a heart-attack before election day. Please let it go for a while. Polls are attention-getters for a brief period; tomorrow there will be another one.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Do I need to tell you to start worrying?
WaterGirl
@Zelma: @patrick II:
It seems like there could be a way to do that in a non-confrontational manner, too.
“Well, before I answer that question, can you please define what you mean by socialism, so the people listening at home will be able to fairly evaluate my answer.”
it will never happen, but it would be great if it did.
eric
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): filter to only B or higher pollsters and the lead is larger.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Matt McIrvin:
I guess the possibility of a polling miss that I’m worried about
PsiFighter37
@Matt McIrvin: The pro-Trump one is Trafalgar, and I am pretty sure Silver basically caught them fabricating their numbers after examining their crosstabs earlier today.
My take on this: the district-level polling is very clear…Trump is massively underperforming his numbers from 2016, on the magnitude of double digits in most places. I honestly think pollsters are massively trying to overcorrect / not be too far off in case he cheats again, so they simply overweight their state results towards Trump (with national polling being adjusted a bit less). I am becoming convinced based on that polling, plus the early voting, that this isn’t going to be close. Biden is going to win PA/MI/WI all by double digits – mark my words. I think he’s also going to win Texas, and I also think it’s quite possible he wins Texas by a wider margin than he wins Georgia (which I also think will happen). I simply think pollsters have not been conditioned to handle a blowout. Joe is going to get north of 55% of the popular vote, well over 80 million in the popular vote, and absolutely crush Trump. Mark my words.
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: I think he’s ahead of you on this.
Patricia Kayden
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: maybe you can give him a start date, like 72 hours out. Save up some of that worry for a nice final push at the end.
Kattails
@Geminid: Thanks for the note! That was certainly one thought, though I’d be happy to get an extra support in there at some point. I think I know what was changed upstairs to create the shear/dragging stress that’s doing this, otherwise there’s no reason for it. Facing the beam, the outer wall is to the right and the cracks run towards the left and slightly downwards where two shims that rest on the column seem to be keeping this from getting worse, eek.
The floor joists run into this beam so there’s not a lot of room to work around, and a drain pipe close to one side. But yes, a plate and a lot of serious screws. I do want a good carpenter to take a look at it, perhaps we need to do some mitigation on the source of the problem. At least there’s about 4′ of headroom there, it’s not like 18″ on-your-belly. small mercies.
I built this place years ago in hippie days with a couple of other people, there was barely a logging trail in, hence the tubes.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
thoughts and prayers….
zhena gogolia
@MazeDancer:
Wow, I didn’t see what you saw in that clip. That looked to me like she teed it up so Kamala could hit it out of the park.
There go two miscreants
@WaterGirl: That’s just crazy talk!
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
He’s saying — our people can take tough questions from a journalist. Why shouldn’t they? I didn’t watch the show, but that clip with Norah O’Donnell looked just fine to me.
206inKY
@Jeffro: Norah O’Donnell’s interview was the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen on 60 Minutes. That harsh stare made it out like Joe and Kamala were liars, especially the way they cut Kamala’s laughter. Harris wasn’t hiding anything, she was just shocked that O’Donnell was acting like a sociopath.
Leto
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: tots and pears!!!
J R in WV
@Geminid:
I suspect you would have to jack things level before starting to attach the Flitch Plate to the failed beam. And you might want to use thicker plywood, like two layers glued together…
Jeffro
I’m down with about 95% of that (PA might be closer, Biden will probably get around 53% of the popular vote imho ;)
But yeah, everyone’s spooked despite all the indicators/polling/etc.
Where are the reputable polls that show trumpov even holding his 2016 states? They don’t exist. And Dems hate answering their phones just as much as Reps!!
Blue Wave II, baby, Blue. Wave. II !!!
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@eric:
I hate to ask, but how do I do that?
SiubhanDuinne
@Raven:
We’re loyal to you,
Oak Park HighIllinois,We’re orange and blue,
Oak Park HighIllinois…Kattails
@eddie blake: I live in a town of 2000 people so in-person voting is a chance to say hi to everyone, and it used to be a bake sale to support the local meals on wheels. I want to stand out with signage as well, so I’d be there anyway. BUT yes, it would be good to get the vote in and then be free to do whatever is needed, poll watching or whatever.
zhena gogolia
@MazeDancer:
Again, I don’t get you. If she were fawning over him it would look bad. This looks great for him. The slight hostility in the questions gives him a chance to negate the criticism beautifully!
Jeffro
@Patricia Kayden: See, even Josh picked up on it! ;)
Reasonable Lesley: trumpov storms off, Pence does his usual Pence smooth-lies thing.
BS from Norah: Biden and Harris swat it all down, stick to their platform, are proud of what they’re running for and are not afraid to call out what they’re running against.
Media: “but will Joe Biden REALLY only raise taxes on people making more than $400k? Donald trumpov Jr says Biden’s lying…”
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
@Leto:
@Omnes Omnibus:
You guys better hope you’re right
mali muso
Some pretty powerful musical moments going on here at the concert. Pink just gave a soulful rendition of “What About Us” and now will.i.am and Jennifer Hudson bringing it home with “Where is the love”
zhena gogolia
@Anya:
He’s on all the cable news networks all the time. He is definitely worth destroying.
PsiFighter37
@Jeffro: Wolf won by 17% and Casey won by 13% in 2018, and if anything, the state has continued to move further away because of the absolute hemorrhaging of votes in the Philly suburbs. Add in (fingers crossed) much better turnout in Philly proper, and I think you are looking a result more in line with what happened in 2018.
Maybe too optimistic, but indications are that Biden is outperforming Obama’s numbers in 2008, and we won PA in 2008 by 10%.
Omnes Omnibus
@Leto: I am not sure my reverse psychology bit is working.
WaterGirl
@Patricia Kayden: I love that tweet so much.
Matt McIrvin
If you’re worried about a repeat of 2016 it’s instructive to look at the EV charts on electoral-vote.com. The guy uses a much cruder polling aggregation method than Nate Silver or even Sam Wang, but that does mean you know what you’re getting. The cool thing is that he has this page where he plots all the presidential cycles from 2004 to 2016, showing states where someone has a lead and also states where someone has a lead outside poll MoE:
https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/ec_graph-2020.html
This graph makes it look like Biden is just running away with it right now. I mean, doing better than anyone since 2004. Better than Obama’s home stretch in ’08. Now, some of that is based on really slim and possibly transient/illusory leads in places like Texas. But he’s got a buffer.
But the main thing to notice is that in the general election campaign, Biden hasn’t been up and down like Hillary Clinton was. What those charts for 2016 look like to me is that Clinton was in accelerating freefall right at the end after the Comey letter, and it was happening so fast that the state polling just didn’t catch her actually losing in time. But she’d had a couple of previous times when it was close to tied, because of Comey grandstanding about emails and the pneumonia scare. Her support would get big when Trump screwed up, but it was soft. It had also been softening noticeably before Comey’s letter.
Biden’s worst moment after he clinched the nomination was in between Ruth Bader Ginsburg dying and Trump farting all over the screen at the first debate. And he was still way ahead then.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@PsiFighter37:
I hope you’re right. It’s funny how a month ago you were sort of pessimistic and I was far more optimistic
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Do we assume that this is Pence or one of his staff?
Jeffro
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: the writers for “2020: the pandemic-ing” all need to be fired.
A virus comes spiraling out of the interior of the US’ rising geopolitical foe…
…the foe gets it under control, as does most every other country in the world…
…but not the US, because it affects people of color and/or ‘blue states’ worse at first…
…and also because our president* only cares about not spooking the stock market…
…but then not only does the economy go nowhere all year long…
…but the president* himself gets it…
…but miraculously recovers, then goes on to start holding super-spreader events all around the country, especially in areas where his ‘base’ lives…
…and even infects the staff of his favorite propaganda organization, just before the election!
COME ON, writers! Do better next time. Oh hell, don’t do better…just write me a fun sequel called “Pandemic Aftermath: We Are All Sensible Science-Believing Progressives Now”
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): If we are or we aren’t, there isn’t a lot more that we can do than we have been doing. Going hunting for things to worry about doesn’t seem healthy to me.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: Interesting! I thought her look was very hostile, not neutral at all.
eddie blake
@Kattails:
free your time, free your mind, perhaps lessen your anxiety that you got it done…
that it was going to be counted…
like i said, it was almost a palpable relief
eta- i also think you might wanna get the weight off of the concrete or it’s gonna be a bitch to shift back into position. (probably not gonna be too easy regardless.)
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
She was trying to be Very Serious Journalist.
I can’t watch the show, but these clips do not bother me at all.
Jeffro
@206inKY: You know Kamala and her team must have had a good laugh doing Norah imitations afterwards.
“no…no…Julie, you’ve got to hold your head up even higher…get the ANGLE right! LOL”
“Kristen…narrow your eyes a little bit more…ok, that’s good! Now radiate hostility like you’re frickin’ Elsa! BWAH HA HA, that’s awesome!”
Anya
@debbie: I don’t find it useful but I really don’t mind it when they’re trolling Trump. It’s just a waste of resources doing an ad on Jason Miller. Who the fuck cares about this nobody? That money could be used for other things so I really hate it that Dem donors are wasting money on the LP.
Jeffro
@PsiFighter37: I’m good with your numbers and analysis, believe me. I just keep looking at polling averages. We’ll see. I’d love to be wrong. I think Biden’s going to win it, just not by 10%+
Kattails
@J R in WV: thanks guys!! Full service blog indeed. It’s not wildly off yet, but ultimately jacking it up would be best. Add the plates or put another beefy timber underneath with a lolly column. I think the stress is coming from the left toward the center of the house where there is downward thrust from a cupola that should have had more support, (or never been put in but it seemed like a good idea at the time….) translating to lateral stress on the beam.
But at minimum a plate and lolly column would be smart to go into winter with, given snow load up here.
Aleta
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Do you ever look at the polls listed here?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
FWIW I doubt Biden campaign staff are telling each other not to worry. They’re probably confident, optimistic, worried and looking for trouble all at the same time.
guachi
For those fretting about the election (and I’m one) The Economist tracker today had major movement across the board towards Biden. It’s the biggest one-day movement I’ve seen in the months of looking at the site.
Today marks the first day Biden has 270+ electoral votes from states where he has a 90+% chance of winning. An additional 55 electoral votes are Lean D (I define as 67-89% chance) – FL, NC, AZ. Forty are Toss-up (34-66%) – GA, IA, OH.
WaterGirl
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): Polls can’t give you what you are looking for, Goku. Reassurances can’t give you what you are looking for. Because what you probably want – what we would all like to have – is impossible to get before the election.
There is so much riding on this election, and in spite of the polls there is no guarantee.
We simply cannot be certain of how this will turn out. My suggestion to you is to stop looking at the polls and start spending your time working with a campaign to get out the vote.
You can’t control the outcome, but you can do everything you can possibly do to help get to the outcome you want. That’s it. That’s all you can do.
different-church-lady
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You don’t need to worry PA is “narrowing”, because it really isn’t according to 538 — look back to Sept. and Biden’s lead was narrower.
What we need to worry about is that the polls are massively wrong.
Villago Delenda Est
What a WONDERFUL spirit animal! Just gorgeous!
PsiFighter37
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): I probably gave the Republicans too much credit, in that they would find a way to stop shitting on themselves. We are now basically 8 days out, well over 60 million votes already banked, and a strong likelihood that a state like PA or NC is clearly going to be called for Biden on Election Night (which will mean that functionally, Trump will have lost). Arizona should also be called, if not a bit later.
I feel very, very good about where things are at now.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: I sort of agree, but sort of don’t.
I think she was trying to LOOK LIKE a very serious journalist. But instead of behaving like a very serious journalist, and doing her homework ahead of time to ask good questions, she appeared to be more concerned with looking like a journalist and not being one.
Villago Delenda Est
@WaterGirl: The only poll that is important is the one on November 3rd.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
Well, yeah, but that’s a given in today’s landscape.
What I care about is that in those clips, both Biden and Harris came across beautifully.
schrodingers_cat
@different-church-lady: Why do we need to worry about this? Pollsters have made changes to their 2016 models. If anything they are more favorable towards the Orange Person than RL.
Omnes Omnibus
@Villago Delenda Est: Actually, it is the poll that ends on November 3. It is going on as we speak. I have already been “polled” and so have many people here.
Geoduck
@Jeffro: “Miraculously” is overselling it. COVID is bad and dangerous, but mercifully most people who catch it don’t die. And the Shiatgibbon had a whole team of doctors and unlimited access to literally the best most cutting edge medicine in the world.
206inKY
@Matt McIrvin: Those charts are extremely reassuring. Thanks for sharing.
different-church-lady
@schrodingers_cat: Because ever since 2016 I have believed that reality distortion fields actually do exist.
Kattails
To get off my house issues, just want to note that in my rural but moderately well off area of the Granite State there are a few of the large obnoxious Trump signs in private fields, which are wildly outnumbered by signage for all the Democratic candidates plus BLM, rainbow, Love over Hate in yard after yard. A couple of the big trump road signs were spray-painted with white letters RACIST and RAPIST. heh.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: I won’t say that we should be worrying.
But I will say there are a ton of unknowns about this election.
First election during a pandemic.
First election with a ton of states voting mostly by mail for the first time.
First election where the sitting president is threatening to use the courts to try to have the election decided by the courts rather than the voters.
First election where the attorney general is not trustworthy.
First election when it’s clear that untrustworthy people will likely hold the majority on the Supreme Court.
You get the idea.
In some ways, that makes the outcome of the election a crapshoot, unless we win big and win hard.
There was also a lot of uncertainty in 2008 because – in spite of the polling – no one really knew whether people would second guess themselves or their choices when they got into the polling booth. Would they really vote for the black man as president?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Geoduck:
apparently Chris Christie got the same drug therapy, I get why the POTUS gets it, even if I chuckled at Michael Che’s line last night. I’m less clear on why the former governor of New Jersey merits the same kind of extraordinary care that other private citizens don’t
Dan B
@Leto: It’s great to hear that Kamala and Joe knocked down the framing. We will need that. And we might need some work stopping white supremacist chaos, in our security apparatus and in our population.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I feel exactly the same way, and I have wondered about that.
Jeffro
it’s interesting…if you look at 538, NC, FL, AZ, PA, and WI are all leaning well towards Biden. (MI is already off of ‘swing-state’ status)
There appear to only be four truly ‘swing’ states remaining: IA, GA, TX, and OH. All 2016 trumpov states.
Even giving trumpov OH and TX…Biden has 357 EVs. Give him all four and Biden still has 335 EVs.
I know we have like a week left, but if it were me, I’d skip NC-WI and just go for it in IA, GA, and TX (especially because of those Senate races)
Leto
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): so do I, but I also know I did everything I could, within my own power, to help this thing along. I voted, gave money, made sure all my friends were registered, tried to answer people’s many, many, many silly/dumb/serious questions. All I can do now is just wait for the returns. I’m not going to work myself up over every 0.0001% change is polling. Won’t do me any good, won’t change anything. Plus I have better things to do with my time like continue reading the good books I have, chatting with you guys, taking my pup for a walk, riding the bike…
Jeffro
@Geoduck: fair enough!
Leto
@Dan B: we need a ton of work stopping white nationalist everywhere, from local to federal levels. Personally I feel like it should be in the top ten of priorities because it represents a national security threat, as well as just a fundamental threat to our way of life. But I’m also confident that Biden/Harris won’t ignore because they’re dealing with a million other fires.
Aleta
@Kattails: Jeez, my sympathy. I’ve got house structure issues too. When I think about it it keeps me from sleeping sometimes. The cats, the work, winter weather coming … if you need to vent more, email me any time.
Jeffro
@different-church-lady:ever since 2016 I have believed that reality distortion fields actually do exist.
Only in PLANETARY…but I hear you and have felt the same ;)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
This made me chuckle, too
Omnes Omnibus
@Leto: That is basically the same thing I was saying above.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Dayum. Was not expecting this from Angus King
if MomSense or any Mainers are about: Has King expressed any opinion about the Gideon-Collins race? My impression is he tries to avoid expressing any opinion about Collins. He’s been on Nicholle Wallace’s show a few times, he never mentions her and Wallace never asks. I wonder if he made that silence a condition of his appearance.
jl
@Jeffro: AZ, FL, NC would probably seal a win election night since get results out quickly. I think that’s a good reason for a serious push there in last week. D’s have so much money, they can do both.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: From your first line, I was somehow expecting bad news/betrayal from Angus King.
Was trying to figure out why that was such a bad thing – maybe scaring right-wing voters into voting or ramping up enthusiasm.
I belatedly came to understand that you were surprised in a good way.
Matt McIrvin
@schrodingers_cat: I’m not entirely convinced that the post-2016 model adjustments mean much, because they’re fighting the last war. They adjusted for education because Trump got all this support from low-education whites in 2016, but the crosstabs I’ve seen this year suggest that Trump’s support is actually coming from higher-education people now. It won’t necessarily make the polling more accurate. A lot of this is just a dark art–there are systematic errors you’ll never be able to catch in advance.
That said, I’d sure rather be in Biden’s position than Trump’s right now.
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: Yup. I saw yours after I posted mine, but I hope he just kind of chills. I understand the anxiety but just need to breath at this point.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I just spotted MomSense in the previous thread and said you had a question for her. Hopefully she will come on over. :-)
debbie
@Kattails:
My favorite sign spotted on my walk today: Fire the Liar.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@WaterGirl: he has said he opposes eliminating the filibuster, an there are reasons he’s an I and not a D– I don’t know what those are– and I assumed from that he would be against court reform. But good for him.
Kattails
Interesting donation opportunity, from Vote America through ActBlue, setting up a shuttle service to get Navajo voters to the polls, many live 50 miles from a polling station; they hope to mobilize 38,000 voters.
Anya
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I want them to be a pariah in New York that they move to Florida because they can’t go anywhere. I am pretty sure they’ll still be welcomed in Long Island though.
WaterGirl
@Kattails: I just sent email to DougJ. Hoping we can get a BJ thermometer.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@WaterGirl: Verily this is a full-service blog
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That’s one of the new rotating tags. I have to say, I thought people would be taking note of the new tags, many of which I think are really fun.
Patricia Kayden
Omnes Omnibus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: As a general rule, I am against messing with the Court numbers. But, as a general rule, shit like Garland and Coney Barrett doesn’t happen back to back. Turnaround is fair play.
Fair Economist
@PsiFighter37:
The Texas turnout is mindblowing. Early+mail voting is already 80% of the entire 2016 turnout, and there’s almost a week left. It will almost certainly surpass 2016 turnout before the polls even open Election Day. That’s got to be good for us.
Kattails
@Aleta: Thanks! you too, what are you dealing with? You’re in Maine, winter coming on, it was nice last week but gonna be chilly this week. It’s been helpful just to let it out here, and get some kind and helpful responses. I get the not sleeping bit. Take care of yourself.
H.E.Wolf
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
I believe that http://electoral-vote.com does the filtering for us.
I’ve recommended them before. I really like their expertise and their style.
[Edited to fix a typo in the link.]
Kattails
@WaterGirl: that would be great; I kicked in a few bucks, that’s a great cause. BTW man you are attentive!
patrick II
@WaterGirl:
“Are you a socialist” is a bullshit question they ask dems every election. It’s both a false binary choice and a false hierarchical choice. At the top of the hierarchy is our democratic constitution and in its prologue it states its goals of support for the general welfare and liberty. Socialism, Capitalism are just tools like law, education, police, that are used to support those goals in a manner a majority of democratic voters decide.
I would write this up better if I had a keyboard.
Anyhow, bottom line , I am not a capitalist or socialist, but a constitutional pragmatist. Whatever people vote for, barring too much intrusion on liberty, is what I am for
WaterGirl
@Aleta: Someone needs to get their pet pics in. :-)
Fair Economist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
He’s pretty clear that he *is* against court reform, but the Covid Barrett process is so outrageous he feels he’ll be forced to do it. Which is pretty fair, and it’s good that even somebody temperamentally inclined to be a doormat for this kind of abuse thinks this is the time to stand up.
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: Do you think they should stay static? If we expand federal courts at all levels, not just the SC, what’s your views on that? Mainly from the perspective of what I’ve seen a number of you law types here discuss: we don’t have enough judges at all levels and that’s a big reason for the backlog/slow speed of the courts.
WaterGirl
Heading for bed, but this has been an interesting thread. Good night, everybody.
Geminid
@J R in WV: Its always best if you can dig a hole, pour sakrete, have ready a 6×6 post with a couple 2×10 squares attached to the bottom to spread the load, and jack the girder back up before posting it and reinforcing it. But if the girder is cracked, reinforcing it as it sits can be a good temporary repair that buys some time to make a good plan and prepare for the permanent fix.
Matt McIrvin
@PsiFighter37: There was one that was even more pro-Trump than Trafalgar–it was some operation I’d never heard of.
Mousebumples
I’m cautiously optimistic about Biden’s chances, but I keep 2 things in mind –
1) 2016
2) How much I always want my sports teams to step on the proverbial neck of their opponents when they’re up late in the game.
I saw a decent sports analogy on twitter today that I won’t be able to find again, so I’ll paraphrase –
We’re up 10 runs going into the bottom of the 9th. We *should* win this. But it’s not over yet.
Or to quote (i think) Packers coach Matt LeFleur from last season – all gas, no fucking breaks.
Keep up the GOTV efforts, and work through this. Hopefully our national nightmare is almost through.
TS (the original)
@Kattails:
With all that – vent away. This is why the internet has blogs.
Matt McIrvin
@Jeffro:
I wouldn’t. Because for a win, all you need is 270. Better to run up the score in the states where you have the best chance of getting to 270 than neglecting those to go for the showier win. Your predictions could be overconfident.
Sure, put some money in IA, GA and TX. You want to make the other guy sweat. But you don’t do anything that even approaches betting the farm on them.
jl
At 538 the tiny dinky slide in Biden support has stopped for now. But from comments and links here, and news reports, seems a growing divergence between big poll aggregaters and forecast models versus local polls. Silver claims he adjusts for BS, mostly GOP spam polls, but I wonder how well it is working. A lot more Rasmussen and more biased low quality GOP polls over last week.
Geoduck
@Mousebumples: The nightmare isn’t over until January at the earliest. And that’s just the Shiatgibbon being removed. COVID isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Still will be an improvement.
Aleta
@Kattails: Do you have all your wood now ?
Omnes Omnibus
@Leto: I don’t think that there are enough judges on the lower courts and those numbers need to be seriously increased. They do the heavy lifting of the federal system. The Supremes were something we could live with. In my mind, it wasn’t a problem that was worth expending a lot of political capital on. Then McConell’s double whammy with Garland and then Coney Barrett, and I’m like “Fuck you, and fuck her too.” If you know what I mean. I am uncomfortable with messing with institutions as a rule, but, in this case, we didn’t start it but we can finish it.
MomSense
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I haven’t heard him say anything about that race. He used to say Susie was a very good Senator but I haven’t heard him say anything positive about her in a few years.
guachi
Just checked the 2016 odds from 538. Clinton won every electoral vote where she had an 85% chance of winning or greater. The biggest loss was Wisconsin where she had an 84% chance of winning. Her lowest win chance in a state she won was Nevada with a 58% chance of winning.
Biden has 278 electoral votes from places where he has an 85% chance of winning or greater. Pennsylvania is at 86%. It has the potential to be really close as it wouldn’t take much for Trump to win FL, AZ, NC, ME2, IA, GA, OH, TX. It also wouldn’t take much for Biden to win those, either.
cain
@dww44:
Aren’t they all are? Or their bosses are? The press tends to always use the Republican framing for any questions. They never use the Democratic framing when talking to Republicans. They instead challenge Republican framing or they bring in questions from “the general public” about whatever “concerns” they might have.
gwangung
@Mousebumples: Yeah. Not four corners. Not stall. Not prevent defense.
You go up to the plate and keep your eye on the ball. Take the extra base. MASH THE HELL OUT OF THE BALL.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: Your number (2) is eminently reasonable. I want a landslide. If we are winning, that should be the goal.
cain
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
It always seems to tighten – we had similar things happen 4 years back.
Steeplejack
Kattails
@Aleta: Yes, it’s one of the things I did when the COVID money came through, got it back in July, all stacked and under cover. Four cords is around $900 & without that money the Dems pushed through on the first round I would have been really struggling. That and some food in the freezer.
MisterForkbeard
@Steeplejack: Nah. This is so Trumps people can claim they’re not pushing Russian disinformation that’s all.
JaySinWA
@Anya: I care about Jason Miller. That “nobody” is damned dangerous. And lashing him to Trump is fine by me.
Jeffro
@Matt McIrvin:the crosstabs I’ve seen this year suggest that Trump’s support is actually coming from higher-education people now. It won’t necessarily make the polling more accurate
I’ll be very interested to see – if polling outfits and researchers can carve these kinds of things out of post-election data – in the following numbers from the 2020 election:
My best guess is that X = 10% and Y = 10% with Z = 10%.
On the D side, Biden grabbed that X and brought in his(our) own Z coming in off the sidelines of 15-20%.
Whatever. It’ll be fascinating to see, provided that I’m not busy packing my bags for Canada or New Zealand. ;)
TS (the original)
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Feel free to be concerned. Everyone else will let you do the worrying.
Aleta
@guachi: He’s not going to win ME2. But even if he did (they sure are trying for it — Pence, Tr and both sons) that’s only 1 EV right? Cause he won’t get the popular vote in ME, no fucking way.
Jeffro
I like Biden’s idea of a commission that will make recommendations he just has – HAS! ;) – to follow. Expand the federal judiciary by 50%. Add 2 (cough4cough) justices to SCOTUS. And institute rules/laws that set higher standards for federal judges. If you’ve never made an appeal…maybe you shouldn’t be a judge. If you haven’t already served 10+ years in the federal courts…maybe you shouldn’t be eligible for SCOTUS. Whatever.
Slow them down. Unqualified judges have no place in our nation’s courts.
Aleta
@Kattails: Well if there’s 4 days of below-freezing weather I can mail you 5 lbs of frozen blueberries, because I have too much. I figure the mail and UPS is slow now so needs 4 days of cold ….
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: Fight for 15!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
Now I know it’s rather unlikely that CA will be an important state, the chances of republicans getting more than 25-30% is slim at best, mail in ballots will not finish counting till 11/20, 17 days after voting closes. As long as your ballot is postmarked by 8pm 11/3 and gets in before 11/20 it counts. Now it shouldn’t take that long but because of the post office the deadline for arrival has changed. Anyway they can’t close out counting till then because remember that they mailed everyone registered a ballot. I’m doubting there will be 100% participation.
Mousebumples
@Geoduck: you’re 100%right that inauguration day is when things can start to actually improve but winning (and winning big) will tell me there’s a light ahead, just got to power through for a bit longer.
@gwangung: The prevent defense only prevents you from winning, etc. We could trade sports proverbs break and forth endlessly on this one. ?
@Omnes Omnibus: yup. I want to win, yes, but to be wholesale repudiation of their non science, anti everything politics. The rot is deep in the Republican Party. Can’t get rid of it all this year (Sen. Johnson, we’re coming for you in 2022),but we can excise a lot – and we should!
Ksmiami
@Baud: to paraphrase Churchill, in the next weeks and months we will face adversity and our own doubts but let me be clear we will fight the GOP on the seas, we will fight them on the lands and in the cities and we will never surrender to their dark forces.
in my mind, we must crush every Republican today and tomorrow and use their defeat as future warnings That fascist autocracy will never work here…
Jeffro
@Matt McIrvin: a 270 EV win this time would be a disaster – it would just be fodder for “trumpov wuz robbed!!!” efforts both legal and extra legal.
He’s got those five in the bank. Ok, maybe pile on in Florida, just to be sure. But grab IA, GA, or TX and show the country that this clown has minimal support.
Matt McIrvin
@206inKY: It’s interesting looking back at those charts now, in light of everything that’s happened.
I found the Obama-Romney plot reassuring in 2012, on the basis of the previous cycles. I shouldn’t have. Obama’s state polling lead was persistent but thin all year, thinner even than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. As Kay mentioned earlier, he actually outperformed his polls almost everywhere, though the state wins were such that this plot predicted his EV margin essentially precisely. That was a fluke. He could easily have lost after the first debate.
Obama was ahead through almost all of 2008, as well, but it was only after the big financial crash and the debates that his lead really got solid. McCain’s convention/Sarah Palin bounce actually put him in the lead for a fleeting moment, then Wall Street fell in.
And 2004 was just an incredible shitshow, but Kerry did have a chance. He almost pulled it off!
TS (the original)
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
But they are very important people – according to the CDC as essential personnel they do not have to quarantine.
gwangung
@Jeffro:
Check this out;
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320423743328522240
“Non-2016 voters are steadily increasing as a share of the electorate, now at 25.3% of all ballots cast. That’s 13,734,744 voters.”
debbie
@Steeplejack:
How long until Trump accuses Biden of being a Putin stooge?
TS (the original)
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
You better hope so too.
Omnes Omnibus
What does that even mean? The best litigator aren’t necessarily the best judges. The skill sets overlap, but are not the same. Trial lawyers are often terrible appellate litigators and vice versa. Good trial judges are frequently not suited for the appellate bench.
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
Is it too late to donate money to make a difference? I guess that’s something I could do
Ruckus
@Jeffro:
I’d love to move to NZ but that ship sailed almost 2 decades ago. I don’t have anywhere near enough to buy my way in (you have to deposit a rather large sum in an NZ bank) or have a come, found a job and held it for a year before you turn 54. I found this out when I was about 6 months into my 53rd yr. I haven’t looked lately at the requirements…. Now Costa Rica sounds good and SS was enough for me to gain permeant entry…. and actually live!
MisterForkbeard
@Jeffro: Right there with you on travelling. We’ve done some of the early homework, and if Trump wins we’re pretty eligible to move to Ireland, Canada, and NZ.
Ireland’s iffy because of Brexit, but either of the other two look great. I could even keep my same job in Canada.
Kattails
@Aleta: them’s a lot of blueberries. Jam? Blueberry syrup? Not sure they’d make it but sweet of you to think of me!
So you think Mainers are going to split their tickets or going to kick out Collins?
Goku (Amerikan Baka)
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
*to candidates
Geminid
@Kattails: If you set your column or post on a concrete pad, make the pad thick, ideally 12″, as there will be a point load. Some 1/2″ horizontal rebar in the concrete is good, two pieces one way, two more the other. Placing the bar 1/3 of pad depth from the bottom gives the most strength. Good luck on this project. Hopefully you can get it done yourself, maybe with some help. This kind of work is not a lot of fun, but it’s worth doing if you can. Contractors typically charge a lot for these jobs, not so much because it is so difficult as because it is so essential.
Matt McIrvin
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): It’s absolutely not too late to donate. Honestly that is mostly what I’ve been doing because I have more money than sales chops or mental stability. ActBlue is your friend.
I’m more worried about the Senate right now, so I’ve been giving to various crucial Senate races; DougJ’s efforts are worth reviewing, and there’s also the “moneyball” links on election.princeton.edu.
Another Scott
As someone mentioned earlier today:
Sensible energy policy is the same way.
Cheers,
Scott.
catclub
@guachi:
But those are all states he won in 2016, and if he loses even one of those it gets very hard for him to get 270.
catclub
@Kattails: Blueberries in October! Our season in Mississippi for them ends in June. Likewise blackberries.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (Amerikan Baka): No. If it comes to it, they can use the money for the court fights that may come.
dww44
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well, just perhaps the Donald owed him that level of care, given that he is responsible for giving it to him.
Aleta
@Kattails: I think Biden will get Maine’s 4 EV. Trump and Pence are trying really hard for the 2nd district (iirc the polls say Biden leads by around 10 there) but at the least Biden will get 3 for sure. Collins could win. I think the polls say Gideon leads by some (I don’t remember exactly) but the Rs are desperate for the seat and corrupt and they cheat. It will be heartbreaking and soul crushing if Collins stays.
Aleta
@Kattails: If they stay frozen you’d have a few months of fruit every morning. If they don’t you’d have to cook them and freeze it? I’d mail them w/ freezer packs and insulation. No prob….
JanieM
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Here is an October 6 article about King endorsing Biden that also says this:
Jacqueline Squid Onassis
@catclub:
If I’m reading things right, Dollar Store Mussolini needs to win all of FL, NC, PA, AZ while losing none of IA, GA, OH, TX. I like the odds for the guy who needs to win one, maybe two, of those to win the election.
JanieM
@Aleta:
To put it mildly….
I want her out so badly I can taste it. Just not having to listen to her whine anymore will be an improvement in our quality of life.
sfinny
Early voting started on Saturday in Westchester County, NY. Early voting is new here and I have been recommending it to as many people as possible. But even I was amazed that the early voting site in my town had a line down the road on the first day. And then the second day. I’ll keep checking and vote early at some point. I’m working as an election inspector in the next town over on 11/3 so I need to get my vote done before then. But the turnout is amazing. I worked the primary in 2019 and we had 4 voters the whole day. Big difference.
Ruckus
@Matt McIrvin:
ActBlue is going to hit 7 billion 468 million soon, like it just did.
It hit 7 billion this month. I think you were the one that told me the date it did, but no matter, it’s screaming along. I think it’s an amazing indicator of the level of support for dems.
Matt McIrvin
@Aleta: In the Maine Senate race, there’s also the effect of ranked-choice voting to consider. There’s an independent candidate, Lisa Savage, who gets a few % of support in these polls–but Savage is explicitly telling her supporters to put Gideon as their second choice. If they do what she says, her votes are effectively Sara Gideon votes.
Matt McIrvin
@Ruckus: Wasn’t me!
Aleta
@Goku (Amerikan Baka):
Did you see this video from before? If you have the time you can still volunteer to do what he’s doing.
Aleta
@Matt McIrvin: It’s so great that we have that.
Kattails
@Geminid: thanks, not sure if you’ll catch this. I’m lucky to know a really good guy who will do what needs to be done for the fairest possible price, which makes it harder to get ahold of him. I’ve got a pretty good idea of the technique but would rather have someone who’s really competent jacking that beam back up. I just don’t have the heavy duty equipment, drills, saws and so on. I’m 69 and female, not a wimp but…
Funny story, the original tubes are pretty large and the ground slopes. In the taller ones, another friend who restores cars donated some metal, I believe a Chevy bumper went into one post as rebar.
Kattails
@Aleta: I did put up a few pints of local blues. Sounds like you are overrun, but it would be expensive to ship and if they didn’t make it I would need to cook them down, they’d be swimming when they got here. Maybe revisit this in a month or two when it get colder, if you’re still looking to unload, I’d pay for shipping. It’s getting late anyway, I can’t quite work out the logistics at this point.
King Arthur has a fabulous blueberry muffin recipe here.
PIGL
@WaterGirl: Thank you for this. Let me take this moment to acknowledge that you are pretty amazing. I wish I could be more like you.
Geminid
@Kattails: sounds like you’ve got the right person for the job. Good luck with it.
WaterGirl
@PIGL: What a wonderful comment to wake up to this morning. Thank you so much.