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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Though it’s a part of the Lone Star State people don’t seem to care

Though it’s a part of the Lone Star State people don’t seem to care

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Some of the recent polls in Texas look pretty decent for Biden and Dems haven’t invested much money in the states. I don’t mean to suggest that I know better or something like that. Probably dumping all the money in WI, PA, MI, NC, FL, and AZ is the smart move (Tessio was always smarter). But it does mean that money spent now in Texas is a good investment. Let’s hit a couple Texas targets

MJ Hegar, Texas Senate

Goal Thermometer

Texas State Democratic Party

Goal Thermometer

I’d also like to keep on the House seats that are held by R but only lean R. There really is a lot of polling evidence of Dems polling ten points better in competitive districts than Hillary did in 2016. I think there are likely to be a couple pick-ups on this list.

Balloon Juice House Tier 2 (Republican-held seats that are listed as toss-up)

Goal Thermometer

There’s 18 Democratic candidates your money will go to: Carolyn Long, Christina Finello, Alan Cohn, Joyce Elliott, Diane Mitsch Bush, Alyse Galvin, Hillary Scholten, Lulu Seikaly, Jon Hoadley, Dan Feehan, Morris “Moe” Davis, Nancy Goroff, Mike Siegel, Patricia Timmons-Goodson, Kathleen Williams, Ammar Campa-Najjar, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan

Reader Interactions

64Comments

  1. 1.

    CaseyL

    If Texas turns blue….!

    There’s a YouTube channel that posts things like “Best/Worst Small Towns in the US,” “Best/Worst Places to Live in the US,” etc. His bests are mostly red towns in red states, because the cost of living is generally low there. (Unstated is that the cost of living is low because no one wants to live there!)

    The comments are always full of MAGAts lamenting how many people are moving to their pristine paradise from blue states, and bringing their soshalist homo-loving ideas with them. Ha ha ha, say I. Make it so, say I.

    If Texas turns blue this cycle, I may have to have a cigarette.

  3. 3.

    Mai Naem mobile

    Stop forgetting Alaska. I didn’t check in on Sam Wang in the past few days but he’s been saying Alaska gets you good bang for the buck and I am guessing Murkowski okaying Amy Covid could help GOTV on our side. Also GA.

  4. 4.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Kamala Harris is campaigning in Texas this wee

    ETA: here’s hoping we hear a lot of “he didn’t even campaign in Texas” starting in 11 days

    Nicole Sganga @NicoleSganga · 1h
    The Trump campaign says President Trump will not return to Texas before Election Day. On a call with supporters, Former Secretary of Energy Rick Perry remarks, “[President Trump] will be in battleground states. Texas is not a battleground state.”

  6. 6.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Former Secretary of Energy Rick Perry remarks, “[President Trump] will be in battleground states. Texas is not a battleground state.” 

    What if it is a battleground ? state this cycle?  What will Rick Perry say then?

    Oh right.  “Oops.”

  7. 7.

    Ken

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: “[President Trump] will be in battleground states. Texas is not a battleground state.”

    Wasn’t he in California last week?

    My personal reason to hope Texas goes blue is that forever after, Trump will be the one that lost Texas.

  11. 11.

    Yutsano

    @Baud: I want to know if Steve Bullock is intentionally waving off national support. If he doesn’t think it will help then I’m glad the national party is listening to him. Otherwise we’re really letting the seat in Montana get away. And from what I understand Montana is supposed to gain a seat in reapportionment next year. I feel like this is a fight we should be having. Unless Bullock is saying it won’t help him.

  12. 12.

    Goku (Amerikan Baka)

    @Baud:

    On 538, they say that you should never put too much stock in how a campaign “feels” about their chances:

    not putting too much stock in how either campaign “feels” (they usually do not have a better read on the race than the polls).

    This flies in the face of conventional wisdom of internal polling being better than public polling. I guess the “feels” refers to “whistling past the graveyard” type statements by campaigns?

  13. 13.

    Baud

     

    @Yutsano:

    And from what I understand Montana is supposed to gain a seat in reapportionment next year

    Irrelevant for the Senate.  And I assume Bullock asked to be left alone. Has the GOP done any more there?

  15. 15.

    Yutsano

    @Baud: It’s not competitive on the Presidential level so they’ve pretty much ignored it from what I understand. We have an occasional commenter from Montana but I haven’t seen her for a fair tick. I’m not that far away but just close enough that I can get a general sense of what’s happening.

  16. 16.

    Almost Retired

    Just donated to Ammar Campa-Najjar in San Diego.  He’s running against the odious Car Alarm-inventing pest, Darrell Issa.  I thought Issa’s career had been metaphorically dispatched with a wooden stake of Ancient White Oak driven through his proverbial chest – or at least by prolonged exposure to sunshine – but he’s back.  And they’re polling neck and neck in the grifter-friendly district once held by the soon-to-be-imprisoned Republican Duncan Hunter.

  17. 17.

    Benw

    When I hear about some RW nuttery in TX I’m going to start saying “even in the liberal Texas!”

  18. 18.

    Goku (Amerikan Baka)

    @Baud:

    That’s a good answer, I suppose. The Biden campaign and DNC’s polling must tell them that these states are very close and worth going after, if only to force Trump and the GOP to defend them

  21. 21.

    PsiFighter37

    @Baud: Irrelevant for the Senate, but one would think they would be incentivized to try and hold onto the governor’s seat so they can try and make one of the new districts as purple as possible when redistricting occurs.

  22. 22.

    TS (the original)

    Off topic – but a happy dance here

    Victoria has recorded NO new cases of coronavirus overnight and no deaths
    It’s the first official day of zero cases since early June and comes after the Premier Daniel Andrews yesterday put an announcement about the easing of Melbourne’s restrictions on hold while authorities awaited the results of a testing blitz in response to an outbreak in Melbourne’s northern suburbs.

    So it can be done – and if Biden wins Texas then just maybe the majority of Americans will also see that it can be done.

  24. 24.

    Chetan Murthy

    @TXSwede: I saw it when you posted last time.  It was well-done, and compelling.  You did an excellent job of telling your story.  Thank you!

  25. 25.

    dmsilev

    @Ken:

    Wasn’t he in California last week?

    Yes, but that was for a closed-door high-ticket fundraising event. Of course, the fact that his campaign has grifted away so much money that he needed to waste the time  required for the trip is a glaring indicator of campaign problems in and of itself.

    As for Texas, I’d say Perry is correct in a sense. If Biden takes Texas, it won’t be the tipping point state that puts him over 270, it will be the icing on a 350+ EV cake. Also worth noting, a ridiculously large number of Texans have already voted; the early-vote tracker has them at 80% of the total 2016 turnout.

  26. 26.

    Yutsano

    @TXSwede: I sincerely hope it does. You tell a compelling story and you might just nudge some folks over to the Blue side. All threads are open threads on BJ anyway.

  31. 31.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: I was googling a little while ago and came across an article that says Beto is pissed that Biden isn’t in Texas because Beto really believes we can win Texas.

  34. 34.

    WaterGirl

    @Yutsano: Didn’t Sheldon A. just donate 75 million to a Trump PAC?  They have money, and you can’t tell me the Trump campaign isn’t coordinating with PACs.  Unless the PACs are telling the Trump campaign to fuck off.

  37. 37.

    Baud

    @WaterGirl:

    Same with Florida or maybe even Georgia and North Carolina.  The Biden camp has to make choices based in the info they have.  They’re sending Kamala, which is no small thing.  Maybe next week Joe will go himself if it’s looking particularly good.

  38. 38.

    sdhays

    @WaterGirl: The irony is that Dump’s campaign is so shitty and run by absolute morons that any Republican PAC interested in reelecting the President probably shouldn’t pay attention to anything they have to say because the likelihood is that they don’t know shit.

  39. 39.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: I should have made my point better.  My point wasn’t that Beto was pissed, or that Biden was doing anything wrong.  I just took that as an indication that Beto feels really good about Texas.  And if anyone would know, he would.

    To me that’s great news.

  40. 40.

    Chetan Murthy

    @WaterGirl:

    you can’t tell me the Trump campaign isn’t coordinating with PACs.

    I read someplace that Shelly didn’t give the $$ to Trumpy, but to a PAC run by people not-beholden to Trumpy, b/c he didn’t what the $$ siphoned away to Trump’s grift.  So maybe, just maybe, they *aren’t* coordinating!  ha!  Ha!  Ha!

    But you’re probably right, that they *are* coordinating.  Sigh.

  41. 41.

    Baud

    @WaterGirl:

    Beto is super confident, and regardless of the outcome, he deserves all the kudos in the world for choosing to the hard, less glamorous work that will pay benefits long term rather than listen to all the internet strategists who complained that he should have run for Senate.

  45. 45.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: Yep.  I continue to think that Beto and Stacey Abrams would both be terribly unhappy with the pace of change in the senate – i think they are both do-ers to the bone and would probably spontaneously combust if they were in the senate. They are both much better suited to be in executive positions.

  48. 48.

    Ksmiami

    @Baud: hmm the GOP has definitely helped increase Covid cases in Montana so viral particles are quite pleased with Republicans

  51. 51.

    Geminid

    Last week The Dallas Morning News reported on a digital ad John Cornyn’s campaign ran against M.J. Hegar, and Hegar’s response. The ad opened with “Warning: graphic language,” and went on to show some clips of Hegar’s campaign appearances, bleeping out various cuss words, implying that she was too foul mouthed to represent Texas. Hegar responded with a tweet:   “Here’s another ad for you John!    You’re a sellout, and Texans can see through your bullshit.     We’re mad as hell you tried to gut our health care.    It’s a damn shame you’ve spent so long in D.C. that you forgot what regular Texans sound like.    So we’re going to send your ass home.”    Mary Jennings!!!

  53. 53.

    HinTN

    What it’s about is 53 47. If three GOP Senators say NAY and Pence isn’t there the motion fails.

  55. 55.

    mali muso

    What’s the word on Adrian Perkins in Louisiana? Just got one of those text messages from campaign surrogates (Mayor Pete) fundraising for him. I have family in LA and would love to believe  in miracles…

  62. 62.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: Even though he is a three term Senator, Cornyn is somewhat of a cypher to Texans. One poll of Texans last fall showed 33% approved of his job performance, 33% disapproved, and 33% had no opinion.     Hegar has run an underdog, outsider vs. insider campaign, relentlessly and enthusiastically tearing down Cornyn as a cowardly yes man, an empty suited fat cat. She had to, especially with the disparity in funding that she faced at the start. But she is a proven fighter (check out her Wikipedia entry), and she is not faking anything. She is just being her self.

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