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Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Phoenix , Arizona all the Way to Tacoma, Philadelphia, Atlanta, LA

Phoenix , Arizona all the Way to Tacoma, Philadelphia, Atlanta, LA

by DougJ|  October 27, 20201:05 pm| 194 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Political Fundraising

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It looks like the election will likely come down to a handful of states: PA, GA, AZ, NC, and FL. (Not a bad chance that Biden wins TX and OH too to make it a total rout but if he wins those he probably already won the first five I mentioned anyway.) If Biden wins even one of those states, he wins. If he loses all five, he loses. Let’s raise some money for state and country parties in PA, AZ, and NC. PA and NC are good flipping opportunities too.

North Carolina State Democratic Party

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Pennsylvania State Democratic Party

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Maricopa County Democratic Party (AZ)

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You can see everyone we are raising money for here.

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Reader Interactions

194Comments

  1. 1.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 1:10 pm

    33%: Biden’s current chance of winning Texas according to 538
    23%: Trump’s chance of winning Pennsylvania in 2016 according to 538

  2. 2.

    Another Scott

    October 27, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    ActBlue’s ticker rolled over to $7.5B overnight.

    $7,509,741,798

    at the moment, and increasing.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  3. 3.

    cleek

    October 27, 2020 at 1:20 pm

    i’ve seen a lot of Biden ads in NC. but i haven’t seen any anti-Trump ads from anyone else.

     

    not impressed by the NC Dems.

  4. 4.

    Comrade Colette Collaboratrice

    October 27, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    I fecking hate that fecking song. Thanks for the earworm. ?

    Off to donate again and then watch the ticker roll and listen to some nice soothing Social Distortion to deworm my head.

  5. 5.

    Benw

    October 27, 2020 at 1:26 pm

    @Comrade Colette Collaboratrice: Mike Ness says new SxDx album coming next year!

  6. 6.

    Litlebritdifrnt

    October 27, 2020 at 1:29 pm

    The only thing that made me smile today was the thought of Elena and Sonya chewing up Amy and spitting her out.

  7. 7.

    glyph2112

    October 27, 2020 at 1:40 pm

    I don’t get the Kavanaugh ruling.  Some of these schemes to not count ballots, won’t they hurt Republicans as well as Dems?

    The one good thing that keeps me going is all the stories of long time Republicans voting for Biden.  I see them all over twitter.  Have yet to see a single story of a Dem / Hillary voter saying the have switched to vote for trump.

  8. 8.

    The Enderville Phantom

    October 27, 2020 at 1:42 pm

    They used to play that song at the stadium when the Phoenix Firebirds visited … the Tacoma Tigers. I donated to two presidential candidates in the Democratic primary. I also gave monies to Mike Cooney’s campaign. He is taking on Trump’s favourite journalist puncher Greg Gianforte for Montana governor.

  9. 9.

    piratedan

    October 27, 2020 at 1:46 pm

    while I support the help that Maricopa county is being given on account of recent history, there’s more to Arizona than just Maricopa County, could we maybe include a state ticker instead?  Its not as if there doesn’t need to be some love generated out there for the rest of the state.  Pima County appears to be reliably blue hued, but help out in the more rural regions would be a bonus.

     

    Just sayin’

  10. 10.

    Haroldo

    October 27, 2020 at 1:46 pm

    @Comrade Colette Collaboratrice:

    Check out Buckwheat Zydeco’s version.  It’ll have you dancing in 5 seconds, I guar-un-tee.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qzul_tIwTo&ab_channel=Teimuraz67

  11. 11.

    Lacuna Synechdoche

    October 27, 2020 at 1:47 pm

    DougJ:

    It looks like the election will likely come down to a handful of states: PA, GA, AZ, NC, and FL. (…) If Biden wins even one of those states, he wins.

    Actually, 538 gives Trump a 24% (roughly 1 in 4) chance of winning a state that Clinton won¹. So we should really hope (and pray, if that’s your thing) that Joe wins at least two of those states.

    ¹ In the Weird and not-so-weird possibilities section about 2/3 of the way down.

  12. 12.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 1:51 pm

    Jeremy Diamond @JDiamond1 · 33m
    Well, this is a new one. RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel just warned a crowd at Trump’s Lansing, Michigan rally that Biden will pack the court AND nominate @HillaryClinton to the Supreme Court.

    They really, really wish they were running against somebody besides Biden

  13. 13.

    Comrade Colette Collaboratrice

    October 27, 2020 at 1:52 pm

    @Haroldo: Oh, much better! I kept hearing Steve Miller’s whiny voice in “Rock’n Me” instead.  [shudder]

  14. 14.

    Lacuna Synechdoche

    October 27, 2020 at 1:52 pm

    @Haroldo:

    Check out Buckwheat Zydeco’s version [of Route 66].

    Actually, I think Comrade Colette was referring to Rock’n Me, by the Steve Miller Band.

    Edited To Add: Okay, looks like Colette got there first.

  15. 15.

    Yutsano

    October 27, 2020 at 1:56 pm

    @The Enderville Phantom: I really love how people think Montana is a lock for the Republicans just because Dolt45 is favoured there. Montana is FAMOUS for ballot switching. They haven’t elected a Republican to governor in 60 years and I can’t see them giving it to a carpetbagger. And Tester won even while being down in the polls in 2018. I’m not giving up any hope there until after the ballots are counted. Especially with Daines skipping town without a covid relief bill.

  16. 16.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 27, 2020 at 1:56 pm

    Joe’s giving a speech at the Little White House in Warm Springs, GA. Good choice of venue. It’s in a potential swing state, it’s eternally connected to FDR, and it allows Biden to flow naturally into health care, pre-existing conditions, and vaccines.

  17. 17.

    Nicole

    October 27, 2020 at 1:57 pm

    My husband said Hillary Clinton should change her party registration to Republican, just to fuck with them.

  18. 18.

    Baud

    October 27, 2020 at 1:57 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Please clap continue obsessing over Hillary.

  19. 19.

    L85NJGT

    October 27, 2020 at 1:57 pm

    @Kent:

    Chrysta Castañeda

    Texas state election law has no individual to candidate contribution limit?

  20. 20.

    evap

    October 27, 2020 at 1:57 pm

    @Comrade Colette Collaboratrice:

    This is the song that never ends,  it just goes on and on my friend, some people started singing it not knowing what it was, and now they’ll go on singing it forever just because, it is the song that never ends…

    Better now?

  21. 21.

    SoupCatcher

    October 27, 2020 at 1:59 pm

    @Haroldo:

     

    The Autry museum in Los Angeles had a Route 66 exhibit a few years ago.  One of the displays was a tabletop jukebox selector with a ton of covers of the song.  You could punch up whichever you wanted and listen on headphones.

     

    Can’t remember if they had the Buckwheat Zydeco one.

  22. 22.

    Haroldo

    October 27, 2020 at 2:02 pm

    @Comrade Colette Collaboratrice:

    @Lacuna Synechdoche:

    My knowledge of the Steve Miller Band is not extensive.  And the blog post’s title fit right into Route 66’s bridge.

  23. 23.

    CaseyL

    October 27, 2020 at 2:02 pm

    Hmph.  I signed up to phone bank Wisconsin later this week.  I wonder if I should add one of these states, but phone banking is hard for me and I’m already a nervous wreck.

  24. 24.

    Haroldo

    October 27, 2020 at 2:04 pm

    @SoupCatcher:

    I’m smitten by (with?) Route 66 iconography.

  25. 25.

    JoyceH

    October 27, 2020 at 2:09 pm

    I think I saw an Omen today. Dropped my dog off at the groomer, and then went to the store and did more stocking up – pre-buying Thanksgiving dinner, in fact. Driving home, this huge bird lifted off from the ditch beside the road, and the first thing I noticed was its size, and the second thing I noticed was its white head. Bald eagle, friends. Out of the ditch and coming back!

  26. 26.

    Almost Retired

    October 27, 2020 at 2:09 pm

    I am working as an election monitor in Nevada with a lawyer’s group.  But after seeing 538’s conclusion that Biden is “clearly favored” to win Nevada, I am going to try and get re-assigned to Arizona…..Even though that will make it harder to recoup my lodging and meal costs at the blackjack table.

  27. 27.

    CaseyL

    October 27, 2020 at 2:11 pm

    OT:  Very nice “word of the day” from the Quite Interesting twitter feed:

    Word of the Day: DORYPHORE – someone who derives intense satisfaction from pointing out the errors of others.

  28. 28.

    scott (the other one)

    October 27, 2020 at 2:14 pm

    @JoyceH: Fantastic.

  29. 29.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    October 27, 2020 at 2:14 pm

    @Haroldo: There’s the Guardian Lions.

  30. 30.

    RaflW

    October 27, 2020 at 2:15 pm

    @Another Scott: That’s something like $600,000 per hour since I looked late yesterday afternoon. Ten grand per minute seems like a decent clip for one week from the end of balloting. (Hard to call Nov 3 ‘election day’ since we’ve been voting for weeks, and the results may take a while).

  31. 31.

    SoupCatcher

    October 27, 2020 at 2:15 pm

    @Haroldo:

     

    I did a driving tour from California to Texas and back over a long weekend a couple of decades ago, trying to drive as much of the old road as still exists.  Kingman to the Colorado River is a great drive, with bonus Oatman burros.

     

    My favorite portion of the Autry museum exhibit was a collection of oral history snippets.  Many of the people spoke with great nostalgia about their travels.  But the one that stuck with me the most was from someone who grew up in one of the towns along Route 66.  They talked about the predatory nature of those who worked on the road and sometimes/often/? took advantage of travelers in distress, price-gouging, etc.  Many of the people traveling along the road were desperate, and were seen as marks by the locals.

  32. 32.

    patroclus

    October 27, 2020 at 2:16 pm

    Keep on a-rockin me baby!  Great song!  My suggestion for your lyrics in a post on election night is Dancin’ in the Streets by Martha and the Vandellas.  Cause they’ll sure be dancing in Chicago, and down in New Orleans.  (Please avoid the Mick/Bowie video though…)

  33. 33.

    Punchy

    October 27, 2020 at 2:17 pm

    If Biden wins* even one of those states, he wins

    *”Wins” as defined by 5 robes, which means getting more non-mailed, non-contested votes in polling places completely devoid of any issues, including broken toilets, counted by 10pm on Nov. 3rd by octagenerians.  Any other outcome = loss.

    The Election –>Litigate ad naseum–>5 Robes Fix is in.

  34. 34.

    Haroldo

    October 27, 2020 at 2:18 pm

    @SoupCatcher:

    Kinda kills the romance, eh?

    My family drove on it in MO and IL when I was a kid.

  35. 35.

    RaflW

    October 27, 2020 at 2:18 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: But, but, the MN state GOP chair made a ‘campaigning in your basement’ joke yesterday. I’m so confused.

    (She is, frankly, one of the more stupid Republicans in our state. Which is fine with me – no need for a best and brightest in that role! Oh, and she’s the wife of one of the US House members. The one with a franking scandal.)

  36. 36.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 27, 2020 at 2:23 pm

    @JoyceH:

    pre-buying Thanksgiving dinner, in fact. Driving home, this huge bird lifted off

    “As God is my witness…”

  37. 37.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 2:24 pm

    @cleek:i’ve seen a lot of Biden ads in NC. but i haven’t seen any anti-Trump ads from anyone else.

    not impressed by the NC Dems.

    In what sense?   Not impressed by the candidates?  OR not impressed by the populace?

  38. 38.

    patroclus

    October 27, 2020 at 2:24 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: They’re hitting the ground like sacks of wet cement!  Oh the humanity!

  39. 39.

    MrSnrub

    October 27, 2020 at 2:27 pm

    How do MI and WI count in these calculations?

  40. 40.

    cleek

    October 27, 2020 at 2:28 pm

    @Kent:

    the party. i’d like to hear them make some noise once in a while.

  41. 41.

    Jeffro

    October 27, 2020 at 2:33 pm

    @Comrade Colette Collaboratrice: Social D!  That’s a good choice!

    One more Zoom meeting and I’m there with ya…

  42. 42.

    Jeffro

    October 27, 2020 at 2:35 pm

    @glyph2112:Have yet to see a single story of a Dem / Hillary voter saying the have switched to vote for trump.

    Yep.  Nearly impossible to picture it, too.

    “I voted for Hillz in 2016 because _____ but now I see that trumpov is the better choice on that issue than Biden.”  It’s like a mini-Mad Libs where absolutely nothing comes to mind, or even could.

  43. 43.

    Jeffro

    October 27, 2020 at 2:37 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Hey they had to bring Hillary into it SOMEhow…ugh, seriously GOP?  This is your pitch to your voters at the 11th-and-a-halfth hour?

    Oh well, you be you.  I have a feeling there are other, more (chest com)pressing issues on people’s minds…

  44. 44.

    guachi

    October 27, 2020 at 2:43 pm

    Clinton won every state where she had an 85% chance or better of winning according to 538. If Biden does that he has 278 electoral votes.

    It’ll take the Supreme Court screwing with the vote count to throw this thing to Trump.

  45. 45.

    Calouste

    October 27, 2020 at 2:44 pm

    @Jeffro: Yeah, seriously. Of course Biden is not going to nominate Hillary, he is going to nominate AOC. With good health she can be on the court for 60 years.

  46. 46.

    clay

    October 27, 2020 at 2:49 pm

    I may need to take this next week off.  My filter-for-workplace-congeniality is basically broken right now.  I told a student she was probably a hateful racist for supporting Trump*, and just spent 20 minutes having it out with a department member over his support.  Called him a twat.**

    If you knew how low-key and mild-mannered I normally am, this would shock you.

    *I regret this.
    **I don’t particularly regret this, which is probably a problem

  47. 47.

    Peale

    October 27, 2020 at 2:51 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: God. Then I’d vote for Biden then if I were GOP. Go through the effort of expanding the court, then “packing” it with old people who’ll be retiring soon?

  48. 48.

    p.a.

    October 27, 2020 at 2:52 pm

    @guachi: Repub state leges> Repub state SecStates> Repub state supremes> The Federalist Six SCOTUS.  I’m way more worried today than I was just a few days ago.

    “Democracy isn’t voting.  Democracy is counting votes.”

  49. 49.

    Calouste

    October 27, 2020 at 2:53 pm

    @guachi: I think if the margin is big enough and they’re trying to steal it the American stock market will take a nosedive. Because if they’re willing to steal a clearly lost election, they’re willing to steal anything, including whole companies. Money would then be a lot safer in investments that don’t have an American component.

  50. 50.

    Calouste

    October 27, 2020 at 2:55 pm

    @clay: You’re very polite. If I’m polite with these kind of people I call them fascists. If I’m less polite I call them Nazis.

  51. 51.

    artem1s

    October 27, 2020 at 2:56 pm

    @glyph2112:

    Some of these schemes to not count ballots, won’t they hurt Republicans as well as Dems?

    Kountry Klub Kavanaugh and his ilk aren’t going to settle for disenfranchising just Democrat party UnterMenschen anymore. The GOP SCOTUS upward failing hires have been moving towards land owner and male only citizen’s rights since GHWB at least.

    I’m sure Jill Stein and Susan Sarandon are fine with this as their Revolution™ is coming any day now.

  52. 52.

    Gin & Tonic

    October 27, 2020 at 3:00 pm

    @Calouste:

    he is going to nominate AOC

    She’s good at what she does, but can’t we actually nominate someone who has relevant experience?

  53. 53.

    Roger Moore

    October 27, 2020 at 3:06 pm

    @Jeffro:

    Have yet to see a single story of a Dem / Hillary voter saying the have switched to vote for trump.

    Which is amazing, when you remember that votes are secret.  It would be easy for a Trump voter to claim to have voted for Clinton in 2016 so they could explain why they “changed their mind”.

  54. 54.

    H.E.Wolf

    October 27, 2020 at 3:07 pm

    @clay: **I don’t particularly regret this, which is probably a problem

    Well, yes: using a word for women’s reproductive parts as the Nastiest Word you can call someone… is a problem.

    Gender-neutral still gives you a wide range of excoriating epithets. If ever you’re stuck, try Jacobean literature. Or Scots dialect. :)

    Other than that, no need for regrets. It’s high time we shame and shun these folks for their actions. Thank you for that!

  55. 55.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 3:08 pm

    @Roger Moore:Which is amazing, when you remember that votes are secret.  It would be easy for a Trump voter to claim to have voted for Clinton in 2016 so they could explain why they “changed their mind”.

    No doubt the FNYT could do a whole story on Clinton voters who are reluctantly switching to Trump because of Hunter Biden, ANTIFA and how Biden is going to ruin the suburbs.

  56. 56.

    LurkerNoLonger

    October 27, 2020 at 3:10 pm

    Wouldn’t it be nice not to have to depend on the whims of a few states to decide the election? Does any other country do it this way? I guess I could just Google it, but I’ll ask you guys.

  57. 57.

    Nora Lenderbee

    October 27, 2020 at 3:12 pm

    @MrSnrub: They seem to assume that MI and WI go for Biden. Then you only need one of the other five states.

  58. 58.

    Aleta

    October 27, 2020 at 3:16 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: That’s ridiculous.  He’s going to nominate her for Vampire Queen.

  59. 59.

    James E Powell

    October 27, 2020 at 3:19 pm

    @cleek:

    My take is that the last week is the time for pro-Biden ads and Make Sure You Vote Early ads. The negative ads lose effect over time and if people are not already convinced Trump is bad, they are never going to be convinced.

    The most important thing is that our voters are fired up, ready to go, and feeling like they will win if they vote.

  60. 60.

    Aleta

    October 27, 2020 at 3:19 pm

    @Almost Retired:  Thanks for doing  that work.

  61. 61.

    Calouste

    October 27, 2020 at 3:20 pm

    @LurkerNoLonger: I can’t really think of a country that elects their head of state in a way different than the 3 below:

    1) Royalty

    2) election by popular vote

    3) election by parliament

    One of the problems with the US system of course is that a significant percentage of the EVs could depend on a very small difference in votes. Technically 10% of the EVs (California) could be assigned on a difference of one vote.

  62. 62.

    Calouste

    October 27, 2020 at 3:20 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: That was sarcasm.

  63. 63.

    Kay

    October 27, 2020 at 3:22 pm

    Two schools going back to remote learning here in Trumpland county due to staff testing positive. Not my son’s yet- two tiny rural districts.

    DeVos was asked why the US Dept of Ed isn’t tracking this nationally and she said it isn’t her job. I wonder what she thinks her job entails.

  64. 64.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 3:22 pm

    @Roger Moore: I can’t remember where I saw a write up people who were reluctant trump voters in ’16 and are now enthusiastic. There were six or eight of them, and I think every single one mentioned one or all of: Black Lives Matter, ‘political correctness’ and ‘standing up to China’. Also AntiFa or businessman.

  65. 65.

    Kay

    October 27, 2020 at 3:26 pm

    EDUCATION SECRETARY Betsy DeVos said Tuesday that it’s not her responsibility or that of the federal government to track school districts, their coronavirus infection rates and how they’re reopening – the most direct response to education leaders across the country who have been urging the Trump administration for a comprehensive database to help them navigate the pandemic.

    The under-discussed part of the Trump Administration is how none of them ever do any work.

  66. 66.

    Calouste

    October 27, 2020 at 3:26 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: So they weren’t convinced in 2016 that he was really a racist, but they are now.

  67. 67.

    Subsole

    October 27, 2020 at 3:26 pm

    @Kay: Bringing back school segregation.

    For Je$u$, natch.

  68. 68.

    Gin & Tonic

    October 27, 2020 at 3:26 pm

    @Calouste: I seem to be sarcasm- and humor-impaired this week. I just want this to be over.

  69. 69.

    danielx

    October 27, 2020 at 3:29 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Oh please oh please oh please…..

  70. 70.

    Nora Lenderbee

    October 27, 2020 at 3:29 pm

    I wonder whether some prominent Repugs are supporting Biden because they think it will mean a return to business as usual. Trumpism is loud, dirty, and creates instability and unrest. With a Dem in office, they can go back to being obstructionist, heckling, calling Dems the devil, etc.–something they’re very comfortable doing.

  71. 71.

    japa21

    October 27, 2020 at 3:30 pm

    I was listening to Biden’s speech in GA on the way back from dropping off the 1st grade grandson at school post his remote AM learning. I know he isn’t the orator that Obama is, but he was inspiring. It was extremely well done.  I think he won my vote with this speech. Wait, I voted for him last week.  Heck, this is Illinois, I should be able to vote again.

  72. 72.

    Calouste

    October 27, 2020 at 3:31 pm

    @Kay: They don’t even have other people do the work. She doesn’t have to do it, she just has to tell one of her flunkies to do it. And once it’s done, she can take all the credit like a proper CEO.

  73. 73.

    gwangung

    October 27, 2020 at 3:31 pm

    @Nora Lenderbee: Well, of course. They don’t have to do any work that way. Governing is HARD.

  74. 74.

    Kay

    October 27, 2020 at 3:35 pm

    @Subsole:

    Online Instruction for Students Begins October 26th – 30th

    It’s sad. I suppose if they tracked it they’d have to admit it’s spiking. Just the worst people imaginable.

  75. 75.

    WaterGirl

    October 27, 2020 at 3:36 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: So say we all.

  76. 76.

    Calouste

    October 27, 2020 at 3:38 pm

    @Nora Lenderbee: Probably. But it also that under Biden they can do their own thing, whatever that may be. Under the shitgibbon, if you’re not a complete suck-up, he’s going to attack you, and your career will be dead. It’s not just for America that it’s a choice between democracy and authoritarianism, it’s also inside the GOP.

  77. 77.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 3:39 pm

    @Kay:

    Two schools going back to remote learning here in Trumpland county due to staff testing positive. Not my son’s yet- two tiny rural districts.

    DeVos was asked why the US Dept of Ed isn’t tracking this nationally and she said it isn’t her job. I wonder what she thinks her job entails.

    In a sane world, the Dept of Ed would be leading the charge in terms of helping schools work with Covid.  In Trump world they are trying to funnel as much taxpayer money to private schools as they can while going after unemployed students for student loan defaults in a pandemic.

    The true absolute horror and badness that is DeVos and Trump with respect to education is an under reported catastrophe.  Kids in cages get all the news, as they should…just not ALL of it.

  78. 78.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 3:41 pm

    The CBS News network has reportedly hired full-time security for “60 Minutes” correspondent Lesley Stahl following a death threat one of her family members received after her exclusive interview with President Donald Trump.

    The network’s decision came shortly after an unidentified suspect called Stahl and threatened her and her family saying “something about neo-Nazis,” according to TMZ. The mysterious call came just hours before Trump leaked his own copy of the interview via Facebook.

  79. 79.

    cleek

    October 27, 2020 at 3:41 pm

    @James E Powell:

    but voting’s been going on for two weeks.

  80. 80.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 3:44 pm

    @Nora Lenderbee:I wonder whether some prominent Repugs are supporting Biden because they think it will mean a return to business as usual. Trumpism is loud, dirty, and creates instability and unrest. With a Dem in office, they can go back to being obstructionist, heckling, calling Dems the devil, etc.–something they’re very comfortable doing.

    I think they are mostly supporting Biden because it will give them a 4-year head start in terms of rebuilding the GOP back into a pro-business but non-insane and more electable party.  Four more years of Trump means four more years of having Trump represent the party.

    The new GOP will be traditionally business friendly in terms of taxes and regulation (which is all they care about) but will be more woke in terms of LGBT rights, BLM, and all the social issues that they don’t care about.  2016 was probably the last year that a Trump coalition of white working class men and evangelical bootlickers was enough to get within spitting distance of winning on the national level.  And even that took a lot of heavy lifting.

    They are going to go after the “Panera moms” with a vengeance.  Listen to yesterday’s NYT Daily podcast to get the reference.

  81. 81.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 3:46 pm

    well, you’ll never guess who spent all morning  watching TeeVee!

    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump ·3h
    Now @FoxNews is playing Obama’s no crowd, fake speech for Biden, a man he could barely endorse because he couldn’t believe he won. Also, I PREPAID many Millions of Dollars in Taxes.

    tell us in the tweet where Obama poked you…

  82. 82.

    patroclus

    October 27, 2020 at 3:46 pm

    @LurkerNoLonger: The U.S’s electoral college system is unique in that it sets up an alternative body based on 51 (states +D.C.) jurisdictions which hold elections for the head of state/head of government position.  But it isn’t all that different from other democratic systems which depend on elections in districts/constituencies/ridings to determine their governmental leaders.  In all such systems, it usually comes down to a few “swing” constituencies which determine the balance of the election.  With the U.S. it’s 51; in the U.K., it’s 650 and so on.  If we did it by Congressional district, it’d be 435 individual elections (and Maine and Nebraska do it this way already).  I’m not sure why you find it coming down to a few swing jurisdictions all that meaningful.  The electoral college has its problems, but it’s not that.

  83. 83.

    Baud

    October 27, 2020 at 3:50 pm

    Via LGM

    President Donald Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016. Since the beginning of the fall campaign on Labor Day, Trump has cut $24 million from his national ad budget, while former Vice President Joe Biden has added $197 million. Biden has outspent Trump

    three-to-one over that time. Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even.

  84. 84.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 3:51 pm

    @patroclus: We don’t have to do it by any sort of district or even have an electoral college.  We could simply use the popular vote.

  85. 85.

    James E Powell

    October 27, 2020 at 3:57 pm

    @Baud:

    Minnesota? Seriously? Say it ain’t so.

    What I wouldn’t give to see their internals.

  86. 86.

    patroclus

    October 27, 2020 at 4:01 pm

    @Kent: Indeed we could (and should), but I guess my point was that the U.S.’s system was designed to emulate the parliamentary systems that don’t elect their leaders popularly but instead rely on individual votes in constituencies and the winners are in parties/factions who then choose their heads of government – NOT by popular vote.  (And their heads of states are often determined by royalty by inheritance).

  87. 87.

    WaterGirl

    October 27, 2020 at 4:01 pm

    @Baud: But what about the $87 million from Sheldon A and the $80 from someone else, all going to PACS, but it’s still money for Trump.

    Maybe Trump can pull out there because the other money is covering it?

  88. 88.

    Gravenstone

    October 27, 2020 at 4:08 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Nice to see that the “paid no taxes” thing is still gnawing at him.

  89. 89.

    Jeffro

    October 27, 2020 at 4:14 pm

    @Kay: I just got the word that VA high school sports are probably canceled for the 2020-2021 school year.

    My teen soccer player is going to be so. bummed.

  90. 90.

    jonas

    October 27, 2020 at 4:15 pm

    @Baud:  President Donald Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida,

    The campaign claims that Trump’s superspreader events  rallies are more effective than media buys anyway and they’re totally not frantically triaging resources in the last week of the campaign yada yada. Of course only the hard-core base that was going to vote for him anyway turns out for those, and it’s not 2016 where these free-form, angry ramblefests from Trump sold a lot of independents on his edgy, “outsider” brand. Now they’re just your bog-standard Nuremberg rally, but with shitty production values and much stupider people. Not reaching a lot of on-the-fence suburban moms with that…

  91. 91.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 4:15 pm

    @Gravenstone:@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Nice to see that the “paid no taxes” thing is still gnawing at him.

    He has the most profound Obama-envy imaginable.  He will never command the respect and gravitas of Obama, not even 1% of it.  And he knows it.  Deep down he knows he is a laughing-stock.  And it drives him insane.

  92. 92.

    Jeffro

    October 27, 2020 at 4:17 pm

    @Kent:The new GOP will be traditionally business friendly in terms of taxes and regulation (which is all they care about) but will be more woke in terms of LGBT rights, BLM, and all the social issues that they don’t care about.

    Right…they’ll talk as if they are ‘woke’, but they’ll do zip to advance the causes you named.  Kind of like how trumpov, Hawley, and all the rest straight-up lie about protecting pre-existing conditions while working to undermine them.

  93. 93.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 4:17 pm

    @jonas:The campaign claims that Trump’s superspreader events  rallies are more effective than media buys anyway and they’re totally not frantically triaging resources in the last week of the campaign yada yada. Of course only the hard-core base that was going to vote for him anyway turns out for those, and it’s not 2016 where these free-form, angry ramblefests from Trump sold a lot of independents on his edgy, “outsider” brand. Now they’re just your bog-standard Nuremberg rally, but with shitty production values and much stupider people. Not reaching a lot of on-the-fence suburban moms with that…

    They are trying to replay 2016 when they got mass media coverage from all the networks of every rally.  And it did work.

    Is anyone other than FOX covering these superspreader events this time around?  I don’t turn on the TV except for sports and Netflix so I don’t even know.

  94. 94.

    Jeffro

    October 27, 2020 at 4:18 pm

    @Baud: He really thinks he’s going to ‘flip’ Minnesota, and hold onto the rest.  Remarkable.

    Whichever GOP strategist put that bug in his ear…thank you!

  95. 95.

    gwangung

    October 27, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    @Jeffro: Oh, I think they’ll sacrifice a dime to those woke ideals….but they sure as hell are not going to devote serious dollars to them. Easiest way to appeal to folks scared by the xenophobia and anti-PC sentiments.

  96. 96.

    CaseyL

    October 27, 2020 at 4:22 pm

    @Kent: Going by the popular vote would give high-population areas **all** the influence, though.

    Maybe it’s my age, and the way Civics and PoliSci were taught when I was in school coloring my perspective, but I was taught that a tyranny of the majority wasn’t a good idea any more than a tyranny of the minority.  In classic PoliSci back in the day, the ideal was a middle ground that prevented disenfranchisement as much as possible.

    I concede that “back in the day” the polarization we now see between urban and non-urban areas was much less pronounced.

  97. 97.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 4:22 pm

    @Jeffro:Right…they’ll talk as if they are ‘woke’, but they’ll do zip to advance the causes you named.  Kind of like how trumpov, Hawley, and all the rest straight-up lie about protecting pre-existing conditions while working to undermine them.

    Well sure, corporate types aren’t social activists.  But I do expect a more corporate GOP will be a lot more LGBT friendly and diversity oriented.  Because this is an increasingly diverse nation and they want to stay in power as well as make money.  Go to any pride parade today. Over half the floats these days are corporate.  That was inconceivable 20 years ago.  It’s all about the money.  And the joint constituencies of poor rural white folk and fundie evangelicals just isn’t going to give you majorities anymore outside of a few legislative districts here and there.

    All I am saying is that the smart folks in the GOP know all of this, and they sooner they get rid of Trump the sooner they can start making the pivot.

  98. 98.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 4:22 pm

    The Very Stable Genius continues his quest to bring Suburban Housewives back to the fold

    Acyn Torabi @Acyn · 19m
    Trump: We’re getting your husbands back to work

    @Kent: he was going on yesterday about how handsome the press says Obama is.

    One shot I would like see Obama, or Biden, or Harris take: Kim Jong-Un is laughing at the man he calls “Your Excellency”

  99. 99.

    Jeffro

    October 27, 2020 at 4:22 pm

    @Kent:He has the most profound Obama-envy imaginable.  He will never command the respect and gravitas of Obama, not even 1% of it.  And he knows it.  Deep down he knows he is a laughing-stock.  And it drives him insane.

    Obama dealt with his ‘dad-issues’, and trumpov never did.  He’s not just jealous of Obama’s genuine achievements and talents.  Obama has something that trumpov never will: Obama knows what he is about, and it’s not a pathological need for approval.

    Oh…Obama also has a Nobel peace prize, a Grammy, etc…
    Those too  ;)

  100. 100.

    LurkerNoLonger

    October 27, 2020 at 4:26 pm

    @patroclus: Kent basically said what I was getting at. Popular vote would be more representative of how the country feels about a candidate instead of subsections of certain people in a few states. To put it another way: the electoral college sucks.

  101. 101.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 4:27 pm

    @CaseyL:

    @Kent: Going by the popular vote would give high-population areas **all** the influence, though.

    Maybe it’s my age, and the way Civics and PoliSci were taught when I was in school coloring my perspective, but I was taught that a tyranny of the majority wasn’t a good idea any more than a tyranny of the minority.  In classic PoliSci back in the day, the ideal was a middle ground that prevented disenfranchisement as much as possible.

    I concede that “back in the day” the polarization we now see between urban and non-urban areas was much less pronounced.

    Bullshit.

    “Areas” don’t vote.  People vote.  With a popular vote election the map would completely change.  Dems would be campaigning in the Rio Grande Valley and in rural black communities and cities across the south where they never bother to go today.  When was the last time a Dem campaigned in say Jackson Mississippi?  Likewise GOP candidates would be cruising through Orange County to harvest GOP votes as well as exurbs everywhere from the Portland and Seattle suburbs to downstate IL where they also currently don’t go.

    We would also finally get to 1 person 1 vote.  Everyone’s vote would count equally.  Right now if OR gets an 80% voter turnout and Arkansas gets a 40% voter turnout then every AR voter gets twice the vote of every OR voter.  Southern politicians pay zero price for voter suppression because it doesn’t change the number of electoral votes they get.  In fact, it makes their own votes larger. And that’s without even getting into the population distortions of the electoral college.

  102. 102.

    Jeffro

    October 27, 2020 at 4:27 pm

    @Kent: are we talking about GOP politicians or big-business donors?  I was describing how GOP politicians will act and talk.  It seems to me like it’ll continue to come across as pretty fake if Dems can successfully point out the difference between what the GOP politicians are saying vs what they’re actually doing/voting for.

    Big-business donors might not be inclined to waste too much time and money on GOP politicians with those kinds of negatives, or with the party as a whole.  Especially once it’s fully out of power and can’t do jack/shit for them.

    We’ll see.

  103. 103.

    geg6

    October 27, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    @Nora Lenderbee:

    If those supporters are on Wall Street, I’m guessing yes.  I’ve been seeing a lot of reporting about how Wall Street has had it with the Mango Mussolini.

  104. 104.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 4:31 pm

    @Jeffro: are we talking about GOP politicians or big-business donors?  I was describing how GOP politicians will act and talk.  It seems to me like it’ll continue to come across as pretty fake if Dems can successfully point out the difference between what the GOP politicians are saying vs what they’re actually doing/voting for.

    Big-business donors might not be inclined to waste too much time and money on GOP politicians with those kinds of negatives, or with the party as a whole.  Especially once it’s fully out of power and can’t do jack/shit for them.

    We’ll see.

    Both.  We are talking about why some in the GOP (BOTH business donors and politicians) would abandon Trump and support Biden.   I’m just suggesting it is in their own self-interest to get down to the task of party-rebuilding 4 years earlier than would be the case if Trump wins again.

  105. 105.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 27, 2020 at 4:35 pm

    @Jeffro: The Republicans who post fantasy Trump-wins maps on Twitter always have Minnesota flipping red.

  106. 106.

    JPL

    October 27, 2020 at 4:35 pm

    The FBI alleges a militia plotted to kidnap and kill Michigan Whitmer. Trump is telling a crowd of supporters in the state that “people are entitled to say maybe it was a problem, maybe it wasn’t”

    link

  107. 107.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 4:36 pm

    @JPL: Gary Peters and his surrogates ought to be hounding the would-be reasonable Republican John James, who is 2,000% with trump!, to explain that.

  108. 108.

    CaseyL

    October 27, 2020 at 4:37 pm

    @Kent: But the areas you’re describing **are** high-population!

    Take our state, Washington.  We are reliably blue, as a state, because the population in Western Washington is so, so much higher than in Eastern Washington.  A politician looking to get elected statewide here could conceivably ignore Eastern Washington entirely (expect perhaps Spokane) and focus all their attention to the voters – and the issues – west of the Cascades.

    Now: imagine you’re a family farmer in Eastern Washington, and your concern is (say) developers buying up farmland and turning it into suburbia.  Or maintaining access to irrigable, potable water. Your property taxes, your infrastructure, etc., directly affect whether you can keep your farm going.  In a statewide election, you’d be lucky to have those concerns addressed at all, because all the votes are over on the western side of the state.

    (How long have you lived in Washington?  Long enough to remember when there was still a lot of farmland out by Carnation and Issaquah?  What happened to all those farms, I wonder…)

  109. 109.

    JPL

    October 27, 2020 at 4:39 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Of course they did.

    Now that trump said some people say what happened to Whitmer wasn’t a problem, and maybe it wasn’t,  I’m sure Wray will deliver his militia information to the House pronto.

  110. 110.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 4:40 pm

    Hunter Biden did what?

    David Fahrenthold @Fahrenthold · 3h
    NEW: Previously un-released documents show the government has paid $2.5 million to @realdonaldtrump‘s businesses. Far more than we knew. Trump Org charged $7,700 for a dinner, $6,000 for floral arrangements…and $3 for POTUS’s own glass of water.

    Almost ten times what he pays in taxes for… flowers. How this doesn’t sink in with at least some of the “he’s a businessman” crowd will baffle me for the rest of my days.

  111. 111.

    JPL

    October 27, 2020 at 4:41 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well I would have thought Melania’s comment would have lasted a news cycle.   I’m not even sure this will be on the news

  112. 112.

    Immanentize

    October 27, 2020 at 4:41 pm

    @patroclus: 435 mini elections would end up being much more Democratic than 51.  I kinda like that idea….

     

    ETA Even with gerrymandering!

  113. 113.

    billcinsd

    October 27, 2020 at 4:45 pm

    @japa21: You should consider getting on one of those Democratic buses that take people from big urban cities to vote in nearby small states

  114. 114.

    Mai Naem mobile

    October 27, 2020 at 4:46 pm

    After they expand the court and get Breyer replaced the Dems should just  fuck with the GOP by having HRC on the USSC for a few months followed by Michelle Obama for a few months followed by Barack Obama for a few months. I believe RBG’s granddaughter is a lawyer. She can be in there for a few months as well.

  115. 115.

    Immanentize

    October 27, 2020 at 4:47 pm

    @Kent: I am not so sure the business people can put the Trumpist genie back in the bottle.  The candidates still need votes.  Q-anon choir members will beat old time pro business Chamber of Commerce Republicans for a decade.  The more likely result is that those Republicans will try a hostile takeover of the Democratic party.  See, Lincoln Project.

  116. 116.

    JPL

    October 27, 2020 at 4:47 pm

    In another world this from the Washington Post would stop someone’s candidacy.

    He later alluded to what authorities said was a kidnapping plot that involved men who accused the governor of overstepping her authority with strict pandemic-control measures.

    “I don’t think she likes me too much,” he said, “Hey, hey, hey, hey, I’m the one, it was our people that helped her out with her problem,” Trump said to cheers at an outdoor rally. “And we’ll wait to see if it is a problem, right? People are entitled to say, ‘Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t,’” Trump said.

  117. 117.

    gwangung

    October 27, 2020 at 4:52 pm

    @Immanentize: This was always in the cards if the Republican Party has a proper death. Our political system is built on two parties, and if any party was to die, it would be from a coalition of interests, including refugees from the dying party, ganging up on it.

    And that one party isn’t going to STAY one party. Because it’s a coalition, the surviving Democratic Party would not naturally be stable; it’ll split.

    The danger, of course, will be trying to split too soon, before the xenophobe party properly dies.

  118. 118.

    Baud

    October 27, 2020 at 4:55 pm

    @gwangung:

    The danger, of course, will be trying to split too soon, before the xenophobe party properly dies.

    I think that’s partly what happened after Obama was elected and we had massive majorities in Congress.  We’re paying the price.

  119. 119.

    debbie

    October 27, 2020 at 4:57 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    I saw a screenshot of that tweet on FB and my head almost exploded all over my laptop. I’d bet the suburban housewives were similarly impressed.

  120. 120.

    debbie

    October 27, 2020 at 4:59 pm

    @Baud:

    I did see two Trump ads last night. I’d forgotten how pleasant the world was without them. //

  121. 121.

    JPL

    October 27, 2020 at 4:59 pm

    @gwangung: Xenophobia is not going to die as long as trump and his clan are alive to stoke the fire.

  122. 122.

    debbie

    October 27, 2020 at 5:01 pm

    @jonas:

    Trump’s treating the campaign like he did COVID: Deny, deny, deny, then when it’s too, too late, panic and go crazy.

  123. 123.

    Immanentize

    October 27, 2020 at 5:01 pm

    Hmmm.  Bloomberg just went into Texas with $$$ and people to help Biden (and down ballot too?). Tell me again how Texas is totally out of reach?

  124. 124.

    prostratedragon

    October 27, 2020 at 5:02 pm

    Just one of just this day’s atrocities:

    The Chief Scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is out.

    Craig McLean, who until recently was the acting chief scientist, had sent a memo to political appointees at NOAA requesting that they, like everyone else, observe the agency’s scientific integrity rules, The New York Times reports.

    The next day one of President Donald Trump’s political appointees, Erik Noble, told him he was out and had already been replaced.

    Fits in with this survey from Huffington Post (!) on the war on data, which looks at a range of policy areas that have been affected:
    Data Disappeared

    The administration has failed on so many different fronts in its handling of the coronavirus, creating the overall impression of sheer mayhem. But there is a common thread that runs through these government malfunctions. Precise, transparent data is crucial in the fight against a pandemic—yet through a combination of ineptness and active manipulation, the government has depleted and corrupted the key statistics that public health officials rely on to protect us.

  125. 125.

    Baud

    October 27, 2020 at 5:03 pm

    @Immanentize: More telling is that Kamala went.

  126. 126.

    Chetan Murthy

    October 27, 2020 at 5:03 pm

    @clay:

    I may need to take this next week off.  My filter-for-workplace-congeniality is basically broken right now.

    Two thoughts: (1) Right there with ya’.  I have -zero- patience or compassion for any GrOPer voter or Covidiot.  I told a covidiot anti-masker that as far as I was concerned, people not wearing masks should be shot on sight.  Fuck them.  Fuck him.  I’m losing a year of my fucking life, my *mother* is losing a year of her life, for these fuckers?  Fuck.  Them.  (2) Why would you regret this?  This is that student’s time to decide what they stand for: are they Americans, or are they fucking traitors?  There’s no fucking in-between.

    All that said, yeah: for the same of your blood pressure, and also your financial stability, it might be good to step back a bit.  But honestly: not for any  other reason.  These excuses for Americans, they can all go to hell, and by that I mean an ice floe off Vladivostok, begging for entry to Russia.  Fuck.  Them.

  127. 127.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 5:03 pm

    @Immanentize: good point, I’m ambivalent about Bloomberg, but he doesn’t put his name or his money in service of losing causes, and I’d imagine he’s got a pretty sophisticated data operation

    ETA: I cringe a little citing this source myself, but I did chuckle when Tweety said he knew Obama was gonna win in ’08 and in ’12 when Bloomberg and Colin Powell endorsed him, because those two egos would never take a risk on less than a sure thing.

  128. 128.

    prostratedragon

    October 27, 2020 at 5:04 pm

    @Baud:  Scrounging for cash like only a multibillionaire desparate to hold onto office can.

  129. 129.

    Baud

    October 27, 2020 at 5:04 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    he doesn’t put his name or his money in service of losing causes

    Well, except his own primary run.

  130. 130.

    Immanentize

    October 27, 2020 at 5:04 pm

    @gwangung: Agree.  The interesting thing might be this ending up with a rump crazy racist Republican party, a center to center right Democratic party and a left of center New Democrats party.

  131. 131.

    debbie

    October 27, 2020 at 5:06 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    $3 for POTUS’s own glass of water.

    The one he needed two hands to hold?

  132. 132.

    Immanentize

    October 27, 2020 at 5:06 pm

    @Baud: Agree.  It’s ON.  Texas Death Match.  Loser leaves town!!!!!

  133. 133.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 5:06 pm

    @CaseyL: My family has lived in the Pacific Northwest for 6 generations.

    As for your hypothetical farmer in eastern WA who wants his concerns met?   He will have to build coalitions and maybe figure out that there is compromise involved in politics and that he and his buddies can’t just get 100% MAGA red meat for their consumption.  Perhaps they will have to give up their MAGA dream of owning the libs and repealing Obamacare and outlawing gay marriage and banning abortion and torturing trans kids and settle down on the land use issues that are actually important to them and realize there is compromise to politics.

    Maybe that means forming coalitions with conservative-minded folks west of the Cascades who aren’t so MAGA to push your agenda forward.

    Living in a pluralist state and pluralist society means give and take.  I expect that people in western WA would be more conciliatory towards Eastern WA farmers if they weren’t trying to veto every progressive thing Western WA voters are trying to do for themselves from health care to mass transit to higher education.

  134. 134.

    debbie

    October 27, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    Damn duplicates.

  135. 135.

    Immanentize

    October 27, 2020 at 5:08 pm

    @Baud: That is different because people told him he would clean up.  Win big.  No doubts (invoice for consultant services is in the mail Michael).

  136. 136.

    JPL

    October 27, 2020 at 5:10 pm

    @Immanentize: When Phil Graham was a democratic member of Congress,  Texas republican were not all insane.    btw I never voted for Phil, no matter what party he was in.    I agree it can be flipped.  Maybe sooner than GA, cuz there are a lot of folks who receive government aid here, who feel the others are getting most of it.

  137. 137.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 5:12 pm

    @Immanentize:@Kent: I am not so sure the business people can put the Trumpist genie back in the bottle.  The candidates still need votes.  Q-anon choir members will beat old time pro business Chamber of Commerce Republicans for a decade.  The more likely result is that those Republicans will try a hostile takeover of the Democratic party.  See, Lincoln Project.

    Oh, I agree.  They are the dog that caught the car.  But I think they will try and the sooner they get to the post-Trump world the sooner the project can start.  I’m not saying it’s going to work.  I’m just explaining why there are some GOPers who are voting Biden.  They want to get an earlier start on that project.

    And things do have a way of balancing out in American politics.  They will be back.  Someone new will figure out their new formula for national GOP success.  And I suspect it will involve massive appeals to Hispanic voters.  George W. Bush knew this 20 years ago.

  138. 138.

    Chetan Murthy

    October 27, 2020 at 5:14 pm

    @patroclus: The problem is that some districts (Wyoming) have … what?  50x the clout per voter, of others (California).  That’s the problem.  We could dilute that a *lot* by adopting the Wyoming Rule, but even still, that states can choose to award electoral votes *en masse* (and not in proportion to the vote) still makes it problematic.

    P.S. Obviously I’m not talking about doing any sort of proportional electoral vote in only some states — it’s either in all states, or none.

  139. 139.

    Immanentize

    October 27, 2020 at 5:17 pm

    @JPL: I was there in the 90s when it was still a sort of 50/50 State.  Ann Richards anyone?

  140. 140.

    Immanentize

    October 27, 2020 at 5:19 pm

    @Kent: That is why Biden must settle some critical issues like DACA and immigration.  Even re-opening Cuba is popular among most Cuban Republicans.  We need a happy constituency going forward.

  141. 141.

    LuciaMia

    October 27, 2020 at 5:19 pm

    Of course only the hard-core base that was going to vote for him anyway turns out for those, and i

    Too true. Plus only Fox covers these rallies in their entirety , CNN et al only a few sound bites. So again, only the converted are bombarded with his message.

  142. 142.

    Geminid

    October 27, 2020 at 5:21 pm

    Joe Biden brought the fire to Warm Springs, Georgia. The 5pm radio news had a clip of him shouting that “as President, I will never raise the White Flag of Surrender!… We will control this virus!”

  143. 143.

    Baud

    October 27, 2020 at 5:21 pm

    @Immanentize:

    DACA is easy.

  144. 144.

    Immanentize

    October 27, 2020 at 5:25 pm

    @Baud: Easy without a filibuster

  145. 145.

    Citizen Alan

    October 27, 2020 at 5:27 pm

    @Immanentize:  I loved Ann Richards, but I’m also cognizant of the fact that the guy she beat to win a single term thought it was hilarious to make rape jokes in a public forum.

  146. 146.

    Baud

    October 27, 2020 at 5:27 pm

    @Immanentize:

    I actually think DACA would clear filibuster.  Other immigration reforms, not so much.

  147. 147.

    Fair Economist

    October 27, 2020 at 5:29 pm

    @guachi:

    Clinton won every state where she had an 85% chance or better of winning according to 538. If Biden does that he has 278 electoral votes.

    538 has *never* had a Senate or Presidential candidate win a state with a low probability. I think it’s actually around 15% that’s the cutoff. His model overestimates the chance of rare events.

  148. 148.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 5:30 pm

    @Immanentize: It’s actually probably easy even with a filibuster, as long as the Dems hold the Senate and can put it on the floor for a vote.  As long as McConnell is Majority leader he just blocks the votes from actually happening.

    I expect there are at least 8 GOP votes for DACA including Ted Cruz and little Mario.  They damn near made it happen in 2017 with the budget negotiations and that was with a GOP Congress.

    Things like major heath car reform and voting rights that are more existential to the GOP will require breaking a filibuster.  I don’t think DACA is one of those things.  There are enough GOP Senators in relatively purple states who aren’t going to want to take a blatantly racist vote to block DACA.

  149. 149.

    CaseyL

    October 27, 2020 at 5:30 pm

    @Kent: I was actually thinking of a pre-MAGA time, particularly in the 1990s, when all the farmland on **this** side of the mountains was disappearing.

    Eastern Washington has always been strongly GOP, so far as I know, but it has not always been MAGAts.  When I went to Lobby Day in Olympia a few years ago, many of the Democratic legislative staff talked about having good working relationships with their GOP counterparts in E. Washington.  And someone I knew with the Innocence Project NW used to tell me how some Washington GOP state legislators were better on IPNW issues than some Dems.

    Yes, those days are long gone.  It changed almost overnight after Election Day 2016.

    But our discussion was about how to represent all constituent issues if voting is done by raw numbers, with no districting.  I was talking about how that system would leave smaller populations behind, and using the once-upon-a-time non-crazy Eastern Washington as an example.

  150. 150.

    Another Scott

    October 27, 2020 at 5:31 pm

    @WaterGirl: It sounds like you’re referring to the tweet from nycsouthpaw that I posted recently.  The numbers are from OpenSecrets:

    Top Individual Contributors: All Federal Contributions, 2019 - 2020

    1 Sheldon G. & Miriam O. Adelson
    Las Vegas Sands / Adelson Drug Clinic
    Las Vegas, NV $183,071,000

    Bloomberg is #2.

    Soros is #30.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  151. 151.

    germy

    October 27, 2020 at 5:35 pm

    ATGLEN, Pa. (AP) – Melania Trump lined up squarely with her husband Tuesday on her first solo trip of the 2020 campaign, slamming Joe Biden, Democrats and the media as she pushed the president’s reeelection message in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

    The first lady defended Donald Trump’s record on COVID-19 even as he continues to play down the threat of a virus that has killed more than 226,000 Americans. She sought to shift the blame to Democrats, who she said tried to “put their own agendas ahead of the American people’s well-being” and focused on a “sham impeachment” instead of the coronavirus.

    Mrs. Trump also denounced what she called Biden’s “socialist agenda” and criticized media coverage of “idle gossip and palace intrigue” in the White House.

    Biden’s “policies and socialist agenda will only serve to destroy America and all that has been built in the past four years,” she said. “We must keep Donald in the White House so he can finish what he’s started and our country can continue to flourish.”

  152. 152.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 5:36 pm

    @CaseyL:@Kent: I was actually thinking of a pre-MAGA time, particularly in the 1990s, when all the farmland on **this** side of the mountains was disappearing.

    Farmland is disappearing in Western WA because the WA GOP blocked a stronger Growth Management Act to protect farmland of the sort that they have in OR.  It was farmers (and timberland owners) in Western WA who wanted the right to sell out their farms to housing developers that prevented that from happening.

    I live in Clark County and the rate of encroachment of farmland here compared to across the river in Oregon’s Washington county (Beaverton area) is night and day.  It’s happening because that is what the GOP wants, not because of liberal Western WA politicians.  Our local GOP County Commissioners are single-minded in their relentless attempts to encroach on and undermine the WA Growth Management Act, which was already orders of magnitude weaker than in OR

    And besides, most of the issues you are talking about are state issues, not national issues. And we still do have a state legislature that has representation from eastern WA.  Shifting to a popular vote for the presidency wouldn’t change any of that.

  153. 153.

    Baud

    October 27, 2020 at 5:37 pm

    @germy:

    Nothing about Christmas stuff and decorations?

  154. 154.

    NeenerNeener

    October 27, 2020 at 5:37 pm

    Early voting just started here on Saturday, and the lines have been so long at my local polling place I haven’t been able to vote yet. I’ve got a number of physical issues that preclude standing in the cold rain for more than about 10 minutes, but lots of my neighbors don’t seem to have any issues with it at all. I may just wait until Election Day when the polling places open at 6:30 am and I’ll have the place all to myself.

  155. 155.

    Geminid

    October 27, 2020 at 5:39 pm

    @Baud: DACA probably will be part of comprehensive immigration reform legislation that addresses the status of immigrants in general. Similar legislation was passed by the Senate under Bush and Obama, but could not get through a republican House of Representatives. But it will get through next year. Schumer and Pelosi might well make this one of the first group of bills, just to let republican senators get their feet wet. “Come on in, the water’s warm.”

  156. 156.

    Fair Economist

    October 27, 2020 at 5:42 pm

    @Baud:

    President Donald Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016. Since the beginning of the fall campaign on Labor Day, Trump has cut $24 million from his national ad budget, while former Vice President Joe Biden has added $197 million. Biden has outspent Trump

    three-to-one over that time. Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even.

    Regretably, Marc Caputo of Politico reports he’s just shuffling money around and the ads will still run paid for by the RNC.

  157. 157.

    cokane

    October 27, 2020 at 5:46 pm

    FWIW, winning North Carolina would really put a big hedge against any possible fuckery in Pennsylvania. So yeah, an important state, and obviously a key Senate race too.

    Iowa probably worth a mention too as a swing state alongside OH and TX. Also a competitive Senate race there.

  158. 158.

    germy

    October 27, 2020 at 5:49 pm

    @Baud:

    “idle gossip and palace intrigue”

  159. 159.

    mad citizen

    October 27, 2020 at 5:50 pm

    @germy: That’s all just sad, Melania reading what Stephen Miller wrote.  She’s just an employee.  I thought I was awake for the last 12 months–impeachment ended before virus awareness began, right?  (yes, google say impeachment vote was Feb. 5).

    In the last few days I’ve been thinking many times about Garry Kasparov’s statement “The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.”

  160. 160.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 5:52 pm

    The Lincoln Project, again. Nothing funny about this one.

    Andrew Feinberg @AndrewFeinberg
    This gut-wrenching ad is up there with LBJ’s “Daisy”

  161. 161.

    JPL

    October 27, 2020 at 5:52 pm

    @germy: f..k her.     We’ll know if the polls are right, if Fox News starts talking about the deficit, and Melania moves out.

  162. 162.

    James E Powell

    October 27, 2020 at 5:56 pm

    @CaseyL:

    Going by the popular vote would give high-population areas **all** the influence, though.

    That won’t happen. Low population states, even really low population states, still get to senators and at least one member of the house.

    The president/vice-president is the only national election. It is immoral that everyone’s vote is not equal to everyone else’s.

  163. 163.

    Kilgore Trout

    October 27, 2020 at 5:59 pm

    @H.E.Wolf: Here’s an amusing you tube video of Shirley Manson from Garbage discussing her three favorite curse words, tw*t being one. To be fair she stresses that she reserves its use solely for male members of society.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUCHRTpBe6g

    While best known for their 90s albums, their ‘No Horses’ from 2017 could be the anthem of 2020.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPA18-tENac

  164. 164.

    WaterGirl

    October 27, 2020 at 5:59 pm

    @Another Scott: I hadn’t seen a tweet, I just recalled hearing the Adelson amounts kicked around – I heard 75 million, 87 million and a third number that I don’t recall.

    And that some other rich republican had just ponied up some crazy amount.  So there is a ton of money being spent on trump, or at least Republicans, and against D candidates, in this final week.

  165. 165.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 27, 2020 at 6:05 pm

    @WaterGirl: The Uihleins?

    The second biggest donors this year are Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, the shipping supplies moguls who gave $59.2 million. That’s just over a third of what the Adelsons have spent so far. In third place are hedge fund manager and former presidential candidate Thomas Steyer and his wife Taylor, who gave $55.4 million this year. The individual totals exclude the failed self-financing of former presidential candidates Michael Bloomberg and Steyer.

  166. 166.

    Another Scott

    October 27, 2020 at 6:07 pm

    @WaterGirl: Here ya go:

    One man, Sheldon Adelson (zip code 89109), donated $172 million to Republican candidates and committees

    A couple, Richard & Elizabeth Uihlein (60045), donated $59 million to Republicans https://t.co/Ud261QdU84

    — southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) October 26, 2020

    That was a reply to this:

    One Upper West Side zip code – 10024 – donated $8 million to Biden. https://t.co/IMWKAwEYow

    — carolynryan (@carolynryan) October 26, 2020

    HTH!! :-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  167. 167.

    debbie

    October 27, 2020 at 6:09 pm

    @germy:

    Good to see Stephen Miller pulling double duty.

  168. 168.

    Ksmiami

    October 27, 2020 at 6:10 pm

    @Chetan Murthy: music to my ears. Trump and his infected plague gang have robbed all of us.

  169. 169.

    Calouste

    October 27, 2020 at 6:11 pm

    @CaseyL: If voting happens without districting, you end up with proportional representation and a multi-party system. And one of those parties could be a Farmers Party. And they could find they can make better deals for their specific issues with the Democrats and Greens than with the BigAgro/PolluteEverywhere Republicans.

  170. 170.

    Geminid

    October 27, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    @cokane: Also, Abby Finkenauer is in a tough race. She flipped a republican House seat in 2018. All four Iowa congressional districts are competitive.

  171. 171.

    mad citizen

    October 27, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    @Kilgore Trout: Dang!  Thanks for the link to No Horses–just watched it for the first time.  That was 3 years ahead of time.  I really like Garbage, I was watching a youtube of the creation of the band just recently.

  172. 172.

    mad citizen

    October 27, 2020 at 6:16 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: They are this place (https://www.uline.com/)  that has about everything you could ever want to store/ship/warehouse etc.  For some reason I receive their giant catalog every so often (might have bought boxes or cd supplies from them sometime).  Just found out they are trumpers this year–in Wisconsin.  Guess they balance out Penzey’s spices.

  173. 173.

    Geminid

    October 27, 2020 at 6:18 pm

    One selling point for Comprehensive Immigration Reform: when the new cohort of younger undocumented workers enter the legal work force, Social Security “insolvency” will be pushed back to the next decade.

  174. 174.

    Nettoyeur

    October 27, 2020 at 6:32 pm

    @WaterGirl: Or something more sinister: the fix is in for Florida. Who knows?

  175. 175.

    TS (the original)

    October 27, 2020 at 6:33 pm

    @Fair Economist:

    he’s just shuffling money around

    Between himself and Ivanka. Probably had to pay the third lady for her speech of support as well. Can’t imagine she did that without a large fee.

  176. 176.

    Miss Bianca

    October 27, 2020 at 6:39 pm

    @Jeffro: Meanwhile, our school – which had managed to open in August and stay COVID-free – so far as we know – till now, has the entire sixth grade and the middle school football team in quarantine because of a positive test.

    OK, cross-country I get – that’s a sport with built-in social distancing! – but football? Seriously? We had the option to *not* try to get football going again, and of course, our athletic director decided we needed to go for it! Yay, team! Goooooooooo COVID!!

  177. 177.

    cain

    October 27, 2020 at 6:39 pm

    @CaseyL:

    But is that the kind of thing they are actually lobbying the govt though? I see conservatives turn out for the stupidest things. None of them really honestly talk about their problems at all or it never gets honestly reported.

    All those things I would care about as well. Because honestly, these land developers are greedy pigs.

  178. 178.

    Dan B

    October 27, 2020 at 6:41 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:  This powerfully activates an emotional response.  This approach short circuits all the rationalizations that are a defensive shield covering the fear and prejudices that are at the core of extremist beliefs.  It doesn’t talk about policy.  That’s a discussion for legislative bodies and a few policy geeks.  This type of ad can move low information and undecided voters.

  179. 179.

    cain

    October 27, 2020 at 6:44 pm

    @Kent: Living in a pluralist state and pluralist society means give and take. I expect that people in western WA would be more conciliatory towards Eastern WA farmers if they weren’t trying to veto every progressive thing Western WA voters are trying to do for themselves from health care to mass transit to higher education.

    This. That goes for Eastern Oregon as well. The tax dollars from the west side funds all the east. The least they can do is stop being entitled pricks when other folks are helping pay the bills.

  180. 180.

    Kilgore Trout

    October 27, 2020 at 6:48 pm

    @mad citizen: Yeah, that video was prescient for sure!

  181. 181.

    Miss Bianca

    October 27, 2020 at 6:55 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Shit, man.

    I will hold a mean grudge against the Never Trumpers for a long, long time because of their ratfucking, but I have to admit that when they *finally* turn their skills against their own, the results are pretty devastating.

  182. 182.

    WaterGirl

    October 27, 2020 at 7:00 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: @Another Scott:

    I didn’t recall the name, so maybe that was it.  In any case, my point/question still stands.  There’s a ton of last-minuter $$ at play on the Republican side, even if Trump isn’t controlling it.

    So my worry is that he is pulling out of these states because others are coming in.

  183. 183.

    WaterGirl

    October 27, 2020 at 7:01 pm

    I do LOVE that Bloomberg hates Trump so much that he wants to help humiliate him with the state’s Bloomberg has chosen to fund:  Texas and Georgia, right?

    I also agree that Bloomberg must believe these are gettable or he wouldn’t be throwing money in that direction.

  184. 184.

    WaterGirl

    October 27, 2020 at 7:02 pm

    @Nettoyeur: Yeah, I wondered about that earlier this week.

    Fun times.

  185. 185.

    J R in WV

    October 27, 2020 at 7:05 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    DAMM !!!  That’s hard, they made me cry. The second one to do that.

    The first one was the Mom waking her kid up in the wee hours to tell her kid Trump had won his third term. “I though you could only have two!” kid says. Mom says “That was before…” Heart wrenching.

    But this second one is even more emotional because it is drop dead real, literally!

  186. 186.

    Kent

    October 27, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    @Miss Bianca:I will hold a mean grudge against the Never Trumpers for a long, long time because of their ratfucking, but I have to admit that when they *finally* turn their skills against their own, the results are pretty devastating.

    Honestly, they are just way more badass than we are.  Even the Democratic Socialists new ads are crap compared to what Lincoln is doing.  It’s a good object lesson.  We need more badass leave it all on the field folks on our side too.

  187. 187.

    Geminid

    October 27, 2020 at 7:25 pm

    @Miss Bianca: Curious: how is it looking for Diane Mitsch Bush in the Colorado 3rd? It’s a tough Congressional district, but she seems like a solid candidate.

  188. 188.

    Kristine

    October 27, 2020 at 8:15 pm

    @Immanentize:

    The interesting thing might be this ending up with a rump crazy racist Republican party, a center to center right Democratic party and a left of center New Democrats party.

    I often wonder if that’s how things wind up in the next few years. Makes sense.

  189. 189.

    Kristine

    October 27, 2020 at 8:28 pm

    @Kilgore Trout: Love Garbage and Manson.

  190. 190.

    Miss Bianca

    October 27, 2020 at 8:41 pm

    @Geminid: Tied. Dead heat, essentially, according to the press release from her campaign manager.

    God damn it. There’s no way it ought to be this close. I am going to be so PISSED if she ends up losing against Tombstone Barbie after losing against Tipton.

  191. 191.

    cokane

    October 27, 2020 at 8:54 pm

    @Geminid: Good tip, yeah if folks are motivated to give for Ohio or Texas races, I think the money probably goes further by spending it in Iowa this year.

  192. 192.

    Sally

    October 27, 2020 at 9:16 pm

    @Calouste: I know this thread is long gone, but, actually, yes. I did read somewhere where they were worried that he was all talk, and was really a liberal, elitist, New York demorat.  But now they know he means it, that he hates who they hate, they’re voting for him.

  193. 193.

    Another Scott

    October 27, 2020 at 10:42 pm

    @WaterGirl:  The huge number is over 2 years and probably lags a few weeks at least.

    There was a recent Politico story about Sheldon dumping $75M into a PAC for Donnie, but that was money donated in September. We probably won’t know what was donated/spent by him and his cronies in October and November until January or so. :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  194. 194.

    WaterGirl

    October 27, 2020 at 11:01 pm

    @Another Scott: Good to know.  I hadn’t caught the timing.

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