Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

A Senator Walker would be an insult to the state and the nation.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

“But what about the lurkers?”

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

The next time the wall wtreet journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

The willow is too close to the house.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

Second rate reporter says what?

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

A dilettante blog from the great progressive state of West Virginia.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

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Reader Interactions

106Comments

  1. 1.

    lamh36

    John, I’m not much an optimist usually and I know some folks are being Chicken Littles about tomorrow, but IDK, this is how I’m feeling going into tomorow…

    Maybe Biden/Harris campaign should play this song on a loop at the election day rally tomorrow

    https://youtu.be/jZpoDbFHwE4

  2. 2.

    patroclus

    Trump is a despicable pathetic dweeb-like fascistic psychopathic lying slimy sleazoid and he is going down bigly.

    My song is Dancing in the Street by Martha and the Vandellas.

  4. 4.

    The Oracle of Solace

    My plan is first to do some filming & editing of a QAnonsense video, then to play historical games (maybe finish my current Hearts of Iron IV game) and forget about the outside world until nighttime. The Barbarian is working the polls all day tomorrow, so it’s just me and her greyhound all day long.

  5. 5.

    slightly_peeved

    538 inject uncertainty into their model because of Nate Silver’s hunches, and they don’t look at district data. Dave Wasserman (who sounded the alarm in 2016 that the district data looked bad) says the current district data is in line with the state and national polling. LeanTossup’s model integrates district data and demographic analysis and they have a good record worldwide for election modeling. They’re predicting over 400 EVs for Biden. That being said, your plan for tomorrow sounds pretty good – I’m anxious and I don’t even live there.

  7. 7.

    patrick II

    I will check in here and MSNBC occassionally as long as Kornacki isn’t bouncing off of the wall, but mostly I borrowed the latest Jack Reacher book from the library and I am going to read about Reacher just beating the crap out of some bad guys.

  8. 8.

    VeniceRiley

    I have to work, but plan to doomscroll twitter for voter intimidation and long line and broken machines and the screams of my people. Then I expect an evening looking at Maddow’s effing handsome self like a crushed out schoolgirl and rooting for the side. I’ll endure anything for her. Even Kornackie.

  11. 11.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @patrick II: Tana French has a new book out that sounds promising– the last one disappointed me– but I know myself well enough to know I’ll be staring at the TV from sundown on. I will make myself get out into the fresh air before dark.

  12. 12.

    JustRuss

    Do it Cole.  Worrying doesn’t accomplish anything, might as well take your mind off things for a while.  I’ll be getting together with some family, and we will not be watching the returns.  Although I expect someone will peek from time to time.

  14. 14.

    jl

    Another catastrophe of the pandemic is that this year, with the early vote versus day of election vote death cage match, the frantic manic return watching ramped up this weekend and lurches towards an open ended series of chaotic climaxes and anti-climaxes.

    I trust there will be vaccine within four years, and the country can figure out a sensible way of doing elections, if Biden wins. If Trump wins, looks like elections will be pretty cut and dried.

  17. 17.

    Patricia Kayden

    Huge sigh

    NEW into @VICENews tonight: Harris County clerk Chris Hollins tells me that he is closing 9 out of the 10 drive-in voting locations in the county tomorrow in order to protect votes after Republicans continue to appeal. The Toyota Center drive-through WILL remain open— Elizabeth Landers (@ElizLanders) November 3, 2020

  18. 18.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    whenever I see Carville talking up Dems on TV I wonder if Mary Matalin is just out of camera view, hanging upside down from the rafters, hissing and snarling, or if he slaughters a goat before the light goes on to distract her with the smell of fresh, warm blood.

  19. 19.

    Punchy

    If….somehow….FL gets called early for JoBi, the night will go smooth and easy.  I suspect none of the swings will get called for certain tomorrow, so Trump will simply declare himself winner nonetheless and sleep will be nigh impossible.

  20. 20.

    dmsilev

    As for tomorrow’s plans, I have to go into work in the morning; some troubleshooting just can’t be done remotely. After noon, I’ll probably be at home pretending to work but actually either doomscrolling (which, if there’s any justice, will be 2020 word of the year) or maybe video games or books or something.

  23. 23.

    Kent

    My wife and I are white, middle aged, and reasonably well off and in stable professions.  The results of this election are unlikely to affect us in any meaningful direct way.  This election is as low stakes for us personally as it is for anyone.  Yet I can barely stand it.

    I can’t even imagine what it might be like to be young and not part of the majority and be living with actual threats of losing rights, careers, and a future liveable world as a result of this election.  Someone for whom it is literally life and death.   My teen age daughters are just tense as hell.  And there is really nothing I can even say to them.  Except it will be all over soon.  It’s a very helpless feeling.

  24. 24.

    MisterForkbeard

    @slightly_peeved: I think Adam summed this up earlier: The political scientist in him says Biden will win and maybe win big. The guy who analyzes terrorism thinks there will be lots of shenanigans and he doesn’t know how it’ll out.

  25. 25.

    Seanly

    I have to work. And I have a phone interview at noon – hoping they don’t ask a political question. I’m a civil engineer (bridges are my specialty) and it tends to be a conservative field.

    I’m hopeful that Biden can not just win, but stomps Trump. Not sure what I will do after work. Part of me wants to watch some coverage, but I’m also scared shitless.

    Not sure what I’ll watch. I’ve watched all of Columbo, started Supernatural & am caught up with the last season now, and The Boys along with a bunch of other crap over the last few months.

  29. 29.

    Kent

    @Patricia Kayden: Honestly, Chris Hollins may end up being one of the absolute heroes of this election.  What Harris County has been doing to get out the vote in a state that is hostile to every one of his efforts is just breathtaking.  The 24 hour early voting locations.  All this drive-through stuff.  Fighting every single fight to the end.

    This is the kind of absolute badass we need in the next Biden Administration working tirelessly for the whole country.  My daughter says he’s pretty hot too:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Hollins

  32. 32.

    Redshift

    I have set up work to do at the polls way too early (we’re not handing out sample ballots because of the pandemic, so at least I can go back to bed.) I’m going to be doing GOTV texting much of the day. This afternoon I went to Mark Warner’s final campaign event in Alexandria and then did my only door-knocking (mostly just dropping campaign lit) afterward until it got dark. Dunno what I’m going to do tomorrow, with no Election Night party to go to.

  34. 34.

    JAFD

    I have a covid test and medical checkup on Thursday, ordered to self-quarantine from then to 10th – right eye operation day.  So getting supplies together, organizing projects that can be done one-eyed, running errands tomorrow and Wednesday.

    Be of good cheer, jackals and gentlepeople, keep your hopes and your masks high !

  38. 38.

    Kay

    @dmsilev:

    I’m grateful I have to work tomorrow. I’m kind of a wreck. Everyone is though. We broke down the Democratic headquarters here early – we usually do it the day after the election- because people were worried it would be a kind of target if there’s…trouble. It was kind of somber breaking it down. It feels more serious than an ordinary election.

  42. 42.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @slightly_peeved:

    I was so happy somebody pointed me to LeanTossUp. Their analysis is great. Would also recommend electoral-vote.com and 270 to win along with 538. Also the Economist. 270 incorporates many models in a consensus map

  45. 45.

    Seanly

    @Seanly:  d’oh, I forgot about The Mandolorian. I wanted to rewatch the 1st season & have 3 more episodes to go before I watch the new season.

  46. 46.

    Mary G

    I’ve had some of my lowest lows in the past four years, and still just feel sick whenever I think about Hillary and what could’ve been instead of what is.

    For whatever reason, though, I woke up after the two and a half hours of sleep I got last night absolutely certain of a Democratic tsunami. I doubt that pollsters are getting all the new voters, young and old, that have come out of the woodwork.

    I did a few of those electoral college calculators online where you can disperse the tossups to either side and the fact that ?FUCKING TEXAS?is legitimately one of them just made me delirious with joy. My guesses ran from 375 to 412 EVs for Biden.

    All the people who bitched about Beto not running for Senate again missed the under-the-radar work ignored by the pundits who can’t be arsed to go anywhere but diners in the MidWest salted with “ordinary undecided voters” who just happen to have been the county chair of the Republican party for years.

    Women’s magazines have been writing some of the best and in some cases genuinely radical political commentary out there, and they reach all the women who like to look at $14,000 Gucci outfits, most of whom are not your standard starving gig workers, but married to men with money who probably vote straight Republican. It’s the Woman’s March on steroids.

  48. 48.

    Adam L Silverman

    Looks like they’re having fun in Iowa!

  50. 50.

    C Stars

    I actually have a ton of work to do tomorrow, so I’m hoping that’ll keep me somewhat distracted during the day. My kiddo, who is 7 and not completely cognizant of what’s going on these days, randomly decreed yesterday that Tuesdays and Fridays would heretofore be our family’s “screen-free” days. So I’m going to do my best to abide by that in the evening. Maybe a nice game of “Obstacles”? My spouse does not plan to do the same, and is much better at sneaking peeks at his phone, so I’m sure I’ll catch onto the news by the look on his face.

  51. 51.

    Yutsano

    Around 1630 PST I’m going to be jumping into my car for some professional torture. I won’t know anything until I’m done around 1815 or so. And then driving home. Oh and work. So yeah, I get to find out what happens around 1900 or so.

  52. 52.

    HumboldtBlue

    The Brits got a mention downstairs so here’s some words from  me Irish.

    @Mary G:

    For whatever reason, though, I woke up after the two and a half hours of sleep I got last night absolutely certain of a Democratic tsunami. I doubt that pollsters are getting all the new voters, young and old, that have come out of the woodwork.

    I’m of a similar mind, the vibe is completely different this year. The energy is different.

  53. 53.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    I am calm as fuck because I know that I’ve done all that I can do and there’s nothing that worrying will change, except my to negatively affect my health. What is going to happen is going to happen and we’re all along for the ride, good or bad. You can only cross bridges when you get to them.

    That thought and lots of THC are keeping me in the zone.

  54. 54.

    Shakti

    The ladies of The View had Nate Silver on to yell at him yesterday, today. My cousins are on FaceBook trying to reassure themselves with Vegas odds.

  55. 55.

    khead

    @WaterGirl:

    Cool.  Thanks.  Was going to email you in the morning to see if they turned up.  It would be typical Mittens to hide from any attention.

  61. 61.

    Mel

    @Seanly: Congrats on the interview! It will be fine, and you’ll do a great job. They’re interviewing you because they know you are skilled, knowledgeable, and damn good at what you do.  It’s all good.

  62. 62.

    jl

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Every site has its advantages and disadvantages, as does every approach. I like the Economist and Leantossup approaches the best. For one thing unlike Cook and 538, which in different ways are mystery meat analysis, you can figure out what their models do conceptually. I think 538 qualifies as mystery meat because they have added on so many damned bells and whistles to the model that it’s hard to tell what it is actually doing. And lots of rules of thumb that aren’t explained. Edit: remember Silver started out as a pretty transparent poll aggregator that people liked because he was more transparent, IMHO, about what he was doing, rather than less. I think he tries to be transparent, but if you Rube Goldberg your model out too much, it gets hard to explain.

    Below is my best guess how Economist and Leantossup models work from their descriptions.

    The Economist and Leantossup models have some things in common. They start with national polls and use historical correlations between regions, states and various political districts to infer what the national polls mean for political subdivisions. Both use different approaches developed in political science. The Economist model pays a lot of attention to so-called ‘fundamentals’ that determine elections, like the economy, indicators of popular right-track wrong track mood, etc., and correlations between election results.

    I think the Leantossup people have a lot of experience in actual campaign resource allocation and GOTV work, so they focus on massive data sets of turnout and election results at multiple levels to get the correlations.

    I think both models do some out-of-sample validation to makes sure their estimated correlations are just statistical illusions. The Economist is clear about how it uses state polls. I’m not sure whether Leantossup has included them except for selected high quality ones for its historical correlation analysis (edit: but that is me reading a little between the lines, to be honest, not sure if they even use them there). But when you read those guys dissecting state polling methodology, and you wonder how many different polling organizations that produce public state polls can be used without running into the garbage-in, garbage-out problems.

    Which brings to mind, Leantossup is one of the best places to read about the technical guts of the state polls, and there is a lot of good, bad, and ugly in them.

  63. 63.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Three hours of texting operations tomorrow. Will monitor Twitter after that, spend some time reading magazines in the living room with the cats. Pretty much what I usually do.

  66. 66.

    Pharniel

    Hades is just….great.

    I highly recommend it, and it will eat your day. Fair warning.

    For super chill I have been digging Shipbreaker. And No Man’s Sky & Elite have both pushed out major updates.

    And if you hate yourself & like Waifus, Genshin Impact is…a Thing all right.

    I was planning on playing video games all day, hitting the gym, and generally trying to go to bed and wakeup to the 4th with our new normal but The Business (A/K/A The Client, The Guy Who Pays Me, and rando consultant The Client has been employing) want to ‘just have a quick chat’ about various proposed projects. The Client actually has the day off, as they do for every even numbered election year.

    Good news is that I most likely have a job for  the first half of next year.
    The bad news is all the bullshit I have to do to set it up for the Guy Who Pays Me’s benefit.

    I’ve never been good about asking for raises either, but if they want me to work on 3 projects at once, it very well might be time.

  67. 67.

    slightly_peeved

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    I really like that G Elliott Morris’ has open-sourced his model and published his methodology. Meanwhile, Nate Silver blocks Morris on twitter for ‘arguing in bad faith’ while justifying his own methodology by essentially saying ‘trust me – I’ve done this a while’.

  70. 70.

    RaflW

    Apropos the comic at the top.

    @JulieBehre
    Replying to @BettyBowers and @RadioFreeTom
    The Presidential election might as well just be a series of Goofus and Gallant panels.

    (Not to be missed in that is the notion that Tom had just retweeted Betty Bowers. We live in interesting times.)

  71. 71.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Kent:

    My daughter says he’s pretty hot too

    There’s a 78-year-old lady in Georgia who agrees with your daughter ?

  74. 74.

    Kent

    @Mel: One way or the other, I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Chris Hollins.   The country is full of rising stars.  Gives me hope for the future.

  77. 77.

    Kay

    I know you-all hate Dixville Notch but you won it. Despite your irrational hatred.

    Dave Weigel
    @daveweigel
    Biden is the first presidential candidate to sweep Dixville Notch since Richard Nixon in 1960.

  79. 79.

    Mai Naem mobile

    1. @lamh36: I am surprised that song isn’t used by political campaigns for intro music or at least crowd music.  I wonder if the Jacksons charge too much to use their music. The song i think Dem campaigns should use for crowd music  is Hot Chocolate’s “Everyone’s A Winner.” It’s a peppy positive song.
  81. 81.

    patrick II

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Starz has a “Dublin Murders” series which I would guess is based on the books.  Seven-day free tryout.  But I am not sure I want to see the show ahead of the books.  Do you know anything about the tv series?

  85. 85.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Kent: Not only Chris Hollins(he’s only 33!) Lina Hidalgo the Harris County Judge is also a hero and she’s only 29. I wonder how much Democratic political talent got lost in Texas in the last 25 years because of the GOP dominance of Texas. The only Texas pols(not counting LBJ era) I’ve really been aware of are Anne Richards, Lloyd Daggett, Lloyd Bentsen, Wendy Davis,Beto, Henry Cisneros and the Castro brothers.

  87. 87.

    Mel

    @Kent: I’m hopeful. There are some pretty impressive youngsters making themselves known nationally (and at the local level in my area).

    I’m further encouraged by the investment  I’m seeing a lot of former students exhibit. They’re getting involved and engaged on a level that I’ve not seen before – volunteering, fundraising, being exceptionally vocal and visible. Some are starting to run for school-board positions or local offices – they understand what is at stake, at every level.

  89. 89.

    jl

    @Kay:  ‘ I just feel like “5” is a large enough sample. ‘

    I smell massive voter fraud. Easy to do with just 5 votes!

  90. 90.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mai Naem mobile: A lot of it, like Ann Richards daughter Cecile, wound up going outside the state and running national advocacy organizations because they were effectively locked out within the state.

  91. 91.

    Kattails

    @Kay: I moved up here from New Jersey in 1979.  You all can laugh, but from what I’ve learned about this state, that is very good news. In fact, I’m going to pour myself a modest libation, give the cats a couple of extra treats, and sleep very well.

    Good ad from VoteVets— “If it comes down to Trump not wanting to leave the White House, our veterans will be happy to walk him out”.  This is a link to the thread; if you go back to the main feed, there’s another good one from Major General Paul Eaton.

    I look forward to Brayden Harrington giving a lead-in speech for the inauguration. His clip earlier was awesome.

  93. 93.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @patrick II: I enjoyed it. As always they made some changes, and kind of mashed the first two books into one story. I was hoping they’d continue it, as my favorite book in the series is the third or fourth

  95. 95.

    James E Powell

    @NotMax:

    The two seasons of the Amazon original series Patriot strike me as being right in your ballpark.

    Loved that show. Watched it twice. Couldn’t get anyone else to like it.

  96. 96.

    Kattails

    @Mai Naem mobile: You just reminded me of the late, deeply lamented Molly Ivins. She was born (just checked) in ’44, would have been a monumental asset these last few years.  “The thing about democracy, beloveds, is that it is not neat, orderly, or quiet. It requires a certain relish for confusion.”

    My local library had a couple of tapes of her reading her own books. She had a voice like warm honey.

  97. 97.

    NotMax

    @James E Powell

    Any show with the chutzpah to title an episode “Fuck John Wayne” starts out on third base in my book. I’ll admit the first episode is convoluted and even confusing. That may be what put off the folks you mention who didn’t cotton to it.

    ;)

    Lead actor (New Zealander, later reared in Australia) does a flawless American accent. He’s also stellar in the lone season of the Aussie series Wild Boys, also available on Prime.

  98. 98.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @NotMax: 
    You live in Hawaii, right? Whatever happened with the Hawaiian Roll Commission? Can’t find any news about it after 2015 or so

  99. 99.

    NotMax

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    My familiarity with the ins and outs of the byzantine byways of the Native Hawaiian sovereignty factions is next to nil. Although in an outré sense it sort of appeals to my fondness for the absurd to have a King Bumpy.

    BTW, this is a very recent related development of interest:

    Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has approved a grant that would provide the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands (DHHL) ownership of broadband spectrum to deploy wireless internet services on Kaua‘i, Lana‘i, Moloka‘i, and Maui.

    The new FCC licenses provide for exclusive use of up to 117.5 megahertz of 2.5 GHz band spectrum that can be used by DHHL to create their own wireless networks. The buildout is expected to be completed by 2022. Source

  100. 100.

    Sebastian

    @jl:

    If I am not mistaken, leantossup looks at district polling to validate state and national trends.

    What they are seeing is Trump losing support everywhere.

  103. 103.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    Cole, and anyone else, join me on Final Fantasy XIV. Lots of WOW refugees there, great community, amazing story. I’ll probably split a lot of today between helping rebuild a city after a dragon attack and learning to tank.

    I’m on Gilgamesh server.

  105. 105.

    lethargytartare

    I feel like John – gonna let the wife watch returns while I hole up in the man cave and play Civ6 or Path of Exile until I hear her start cheering.

    If I don’t hear any cheering by 10, I may just stay up there until next year.

  106. 106.

    evodevo

    @NotMax: An interesting look at the convoluted history of Hawaii is Sarah Vowell’s  “Unfamiliar Fishes” – somewhat wordy, but gives a good idea of all the influences on events that led up to the annexation of Hawaii and all the warring factions involved.

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