Several of my Duke colleagues have a new paper in Value in Health# that asked what people were willing to do for COVID control. They found four common clusters:
- Risk minimizers (36%)
- Waiters (26%) willing to delay opening up non-essential businesses
- Economy Recovery (25%) open up early and fast to get the economy moving
- Social openers (16%)
Political affiliation, race, household income, and employment status were all associated with class membership (P<.01).
The policy of the United States federal government has been to cater to the Economy Recovery and the Social Openers over the summer. Several states in the upper plains have effectively removed all COVID movement and economic restrictions in the past two months.
https://t.co/3pjPwPPFwz has introduced a new color to the map for cases per million. Previously we had topped out at DARK RED for 250+ new cases per million (CPM) residents.
We've added DEEP PURPLE for 500+ new CPM
Several states (ND, SD) have 1000+ new CPM pic.twitter.com/iaksSvQpUb
— Duke-Margolis (@DukeMargolis) November 3, 2020
Today’s election is partially a referendum on this strategy.
# https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2020.07.003
JMG
Mass. Governor Baker announced yesterday that as of Friday, there’s a 10 p.m. to 5 p.m. curfew, businesses such as restaurants and liquor stores must close by 9:30 and that masks must be worn in public even if social distancing is possible, places like hiking trails, golf courses and such. This is remarkably similar to the measures France and the UK announced about three weeks before they announced their current lockdowns. So I figure that’s coming by Thanksgiving. Baker, of course, is the most governor in the US.
Amir Khalid
@JMG:
Y’mean, like Chris Christie in NJ used to be? ;-)
dnfree
That’s a fascinating study. I am surprised to see that both Democrats and Republicans are more likely than independents to be in the risk-minimizing group. Also surprised schools weren’t the number one target for reopening. Tell me if there’s something I’m missing.
bluefoot
This is really interesting data. I wonder how it would change across countries, or even variations by state depending on state-mandated mitigation measures (e.g. mask mandates) and resources (access to health care, rent forgiveness).
It’s unfortunate (scientific understatement) that we didn’t have a federal response and federally-provided resources – universal distribution of adequate PPE; grants for schools, businesses, govt offices, etc to upgrade their HVAC for better ventilation and filtration. Reopening would then look really different. I have siblings in various locations around the country from Wisconsin to Vermont, which pretty much runs the range of COVID prevalence and response. it’s been interesting to see what each locality considers baseline risk, and what safe/current normal behavior looks like.
Cheryl Rofer
Can you really call it risk tolerance if people don’t know what they’re risking?
The ignorance out there of how viruses work is impressive.
Heywood J.
If a more serious color beyond Deep Purple is needed, how about Ritchie BLACKmore?
I’ll show myself out.
Eric K
@Heywood J.: or maybe a Rainbow…
ballerat
@Cheryl Rofer: All they need to know and all they want to know they learned from Fox and Trump. They’re pretty sure if they get sick the republican health care plan will cover them and they’ll be able to get the same drugs Trump got and in just a week they’ll bounce back and be so full of energy they’ll be at those rallys dancing with Trump on stage.
Right. Those dumb motherfuckers don’t have the ability to assess risk even if everything were known about the virus. Because to do that they have to be capable of discerning fact from fantasy, from recognizing what they know and what they don’t know, and from what is and they want to believe.
The fact that so much of the virus and the disease it causes are unknown ought to warrant a cautious and risk-adverse response. That would be a prudent and — dare I say it? — a conservative response, would it not?
We are where we are not because of lack of data but because of a significant chunk of our society lacks the faculties necessary to draw reasoned (and reasonable) conclusions from data or from lack of data.
It’s like a Dunning-Kruger of critical thinking. They so lack the ability they even lack the ability to perceive they lack the ability, even when their own health and lives could be at stake.
ballerat
@Cheryl Rofer:
Another thought occurred to me: I wonder how of many are capable of better critical thinking for risk assessment but are unwilling to do so?
Like Trump, they have so much invested in not reexamining their political philosophy or their egocentric world view, they willfully deny reality.
In which case it’s not so much they are risk tolerant of Covid-19, they are willing to die of whiteness.
And what has actually caused the deaths of a quarter of a million people is their insistence on white supremacy.
featheredsprite
@ballerat: hmmmm . .
But a lot of very nice people have been affected. Not fair.