Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

America is going up in flames. The NYTimes fawns over MAGA celebrities. No longer a real newspaper.

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

With all due respect and assumptions of good faith, please fuck off into the sun.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Celebrate the fucking wins.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

You cannot shame the shameless.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

This blog will pay for itself.

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2020 / Everyone Just Calm The Fuck Down! The NC Numbers Were Misreported

Everyone Just Calm The Fuck Down! The NC Numbers Were Misreported

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Just simmer down and let them actually count the votes. Remember the news media are projecting winners, not actually counting ballots.

Reader Interactions

281Comments

  2. 2.

    Cheryl Rofer

    We’re not going to have full results until tomorrow or later. It’s hard to know when we will be able to see a clear winner. I still think it will be Biden, but it’s closer than I had hoped. And there’s this –

  3. 3.

    cain

    They were changed, but the numbers doesn’t help Biden all that much – just makes the odds still less. Now Biden can still pull it off I guess – but let us see.

  5. 5.

    PsiFighter37

    @Cheryl Rofer: This is a bit facile, because Florida and North Carolina – both states that can count early – are gone. Texas, the big hope, is going to turn out wider than Beto’s loss in 2018.

    Like 2016, the election is going to come down to PA/MI/WI. We will win AZ before the night is out, but nothing else is going to flip (except maybe IA – haven’t seen enough numbers out of there yet). Given how tight the Senate races are hewing, it is going to be very difficult for us. We lose AL, we win ME (hopefully), CO, AZ – we are short of a majority, and it will come down to Georgia’s runoffs…which I feel less optimistic about given how the results are playing out.

  6. 6.

    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?

    I haven’t panic posted yet. I’m concerned but not giving up hope yet.

  7. 7.

    Dagaetch

    I try to always remember, the media has a vested interest in making things appear to be closer than they actually are. If you aren’t panicking, you might change the channel/website.

  9. 9.

    Sister Golden Bear

    ETA: I see Cheryl beat me to it.

    Since we’re a full-service blog, I wanted to make sure all jackals know about an offer from our kind northern neighbors to fed us poutine, and tell us everything’s going to be all right.

    Dear America:

    Emotional Support Canadians are on standby. If you have not yet received your Emotional Support Canadian, one will be assigned to you shortly. ??
    — ?Canadian Fletchy☘ (@Darth_Pingu) November 4, 2020

  10. 10.

    Chris Johnson

    No shit. Like the Lincoln Project people say: “Fuck you, keep counting”.

    Suddenly we’re shocked and take it at totally face value when the Trump people cheat and bullshit and outright lie and enlist hardworking Russian trolls to stampede people into panic.

    Fuck you, keep counting.

  11. 11.

    John S.

    @Cheryl Rofer: Look at this blog. It has turned into Doom Central, even though everything has played out so far pretty much as expected. There haven’t been any real surprises.

  15. 15.

    guachi

    I’m more disheartened than panicking. Trump is so awful and millions of Americans just don’t care. Biden will most certainly win the popular vote but it doesn’t matter because our electoral system is broken. The  electoral college has to go.

    I enlisted in the Navy after 9/11 over 19 years ago. The country I signed up to serve isn’t the country I’m currently serving. It’s heartbreaking.

  16. 16.

    Sebastian

    @PsiFighter37:

    I am not concerned about Senate and neither should you. A Biden DOJ will find enough wrongdoings to decimate the red aisle. But without the presidency this country is fucked.

    Millions will die of COVID.

  18. 18.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    I can do better than emotional support Canadians – my grandfather was born in Canada and I’ve already checked in with my second cousins in Toronto who say I’ll be welcome to move there.

    and my cat, who is not a cuddly cat, has volunteered to sit on me & our up a storm. She can tell I’m upset.

  25. 25.

    Adam L Silverman

    @waratah: Because the different decision desks are calling it at different times. Senator Kaine tweeted it was called for Biden early. MSNBC hasn’t reported anything about it.

  26. 26.

    Dagaetch

    I know that things still look okay for Biden, and that we still stand a decent chance of Senate control. But God…after the last few years of Republican control, I simply don’t understand how people can vote for them! They are bad people who actively make this country and the world a worse place. How, how, how can so many people support them?!? That’s what really hurts. Even if we win in the end, I will be sad and angry because so many of my fellow citizens don’t recognize how bad the Republican party truly is. A blowout tonight might have made me feel better that some of them recognized reality.

  29. 29.

    Ohio Mom

    I envy Baud’s ability to sleep. I am too wound up, plus Ohio Dad is even more wound up. I have 200 pounds of angst immediately to my right.

  32. 32.

    sdhays

    @guachi: Personally, I’m trying to save those thoughts for after the votes are counted. I just want to know that we’ve at least been able to do the minimum – elect Joe Biden. That’s still within our grasp, and if we can at least clear that hurdle, I’ll emotionally process the rest later.

  35. 35.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    How/why can someone fail as badly as Trump and still be an enthusiastic choice, even in our shitty, broken electoral system?

  37. 37.

    hedgehog mobile

    Some good news out of Colorado.  We kicked Cory Gardner to the curb and defeated the umpteenth attempt to ban abortion.

    That said, as so many others have commented, why is this even close?  How the hell are we supposed to live with people who see Cheetolini and say yeah give me four more years of that?

  39. 39.

    different-church-lady

    OK, fine, NH called for Biden, even with less than 50% counted. Maybe I can sleep on that.

  42. 42.

    piratedan

    based on the azcentral.com numbers, Kelly has 10 points on McSally for the Senate seat, all the congressional seats are incumbent led except az CD-6 where Tiperneni has a lead (14K at the moment) over Schweikert the R incumbent.  Maricopa has started reporting whereas Pima hasn’t as of yet.

  43. 43.

    guachi

    @sdhays: I take negative news of any kind very badly, whether it’s personal, professional, or just regular news. So seeing Biden and Democrats struggle so far tonight is really getting me down.

    You could say, “don’t follow election news!”,  but I need to because I have to process all the negative stuff slowly.

    A few people have pied me for being down on FL and NC (rightly, I think, at the time). And I’m sorry if my  doomposting got people down.

  44. 44.

    Quinerly

    @Ohio Mom: no way am I sleeping. Was supposed to socially distance at 2:30 outside at a microbrewery with 3 people who are health compromised and are being super careful to celebrate a Biden win. I had hoped to be fresh, well rested. Realizing now that I will be up all night… Either drunk at 2:30pm or hung over.

    Earlier, I had convinced myself of a landslide.

  49. 49.

    Jerzy Russian

    @different-church-lady:   I am in California, and I normally won’t go to bed for another 3 hours.   I would hope Biden’s EC count would be up higher than it is now.

    After the election of 2016, I woke up screaming sometime early Wednesday morning (2:00 am maybe?).  I don’t want to do that again.

  54. 54.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    why the hell is MSNBC holding out on VA? they haven’t even mentioned it, that I’ve seen

  57. 57.

    Citizen Alan

    @Yarrow: Sixteen years after the 2004 election, I am intensely bitter that I allowed my mother to guilt trip me out of moving to Canada.

  61. 61.

    donnah

    I’m not reassured. Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, and Tom Cotton are all wins, which makes the Senate still in Republican control. No major flips of states, still the same red states are red. Florida, NC, OH, and GA all red, TX likely red. PA leaning red again, too.

    Talk me down, and I know more ballots are coming, but it sure looks bad.

  63. 63.

    Citizen Alan

    @Sebastian:  Even if Biden wins, I genuinely don’t think Senate Majority Leader McConnell will allow any of his nominees for any Cabinet position to be filled. That’s how broken this country is.

  65. 65.

    mrmoshpotato

    Ugh.  I’m going for a walk.

    ETA – I like how NBC News just went “Fuck it.  Biden wins the left coast.”

  66. 66.

    guachi

    @Gin & Tonic: Well, there’s IA, MT and ME left. That’s about it, right? But it looks like Collins is running way ahead of Trump in ME. Bullock is only running 5 ahead of Biden, probably not enough. And Greenfield is about even with Biden, also probably not enough.

  67. 67.

    sdhays

    With the West coast closing, the AP board at TPM has added WA, OR, and CA, which helps visually clarify things.

    61 electoral votes to go.

    Dump still at 112, but they haven’t called TX or FL (?) yet.

  68. 68.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Suzanne: Those are almost all just election day results. They won’t have the mail in and early voting votes tallied till at least tomorrow if not Thursday or Friday.

  69. 69.

    BethanyAnne

    @Sister Golden Bear: Excellent!

    In local good news, my local Congresswoman, Lizzie Fletcher (D-Katy,Tx) has beaten Wesley Hunt. Hunt was a very high profile candidate, and we’re at 90% reporting, and Fletcher is winning 51-47.

  70. 70.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Baud: Same here. I will wait until all the votes are counted. Wasn’t this expected though, that the Rs would have a lead in the election day in person voting? It is not over until all the votes are counted.

  74. 74.

    Quinerly

    @Baud: NC can be odd. Tries to be progressive. Lots of progressive governors but Jesse Helms as Senator all those years. My birthstate so I still read local papers on line. The crazies have hated Cooper and shutdowns over Covid. The Lt Gov is a Repug. Ran against him. Has tried to undermine Cooper every step of the way.

  76. 76.

    Ivan X

    Nihilistic music, alcohol, Xanax. I’m not proud of my coping strategies for the night, but I hope they get me into goodbye land until tomorrow.

    I have long believed that this country is just more fucking right-wing that we all wish. But it is so. We might not be living in the country we wish we were. Either there’s going to be a left-side assertion of state rights so that huge economies like California and New York can operate with as much autonomy as they can, or there’s going to have the be a repatriation of deep blue large cities to red states. Whatever it takes.

  77. 77.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Suzanne:

    Ugh…. PA, MI, WI look bad.

    PA has 40% of the vote in per MSNBC. The largest population centers in WI are not, as I understand, included in any counts yet. I haven’t seen much about MI

  81. 81.

    Jerzy Russian

    @Adam L Silverman:   I can understand the mailed ballots, those could arrive in the coming days.  But the early votes?  Why do those take so long?  Why not count them (and keep the results secret until the evening of election day).  Or at the very least, take them all out of the envelopes, line them up, and have them ready for the machines.

  83. 83.

    Ohio Mom

    Quinerly:

    I thought the first time we elected Obama, it was in reaction to the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

    I thought that the pandemic and whatever ranking this current economic disaster is would work similarly for us. Which left me wondering what level disaster it would take to swing back the next time we elected a Republican.

    But now, I got nothing.

  87. 87.

    HumboldtBlue

    I have now lost seven straight games of solitaire.

    But, I have enjoyed three five beers but that’s only because my neighbor just stopped by and we had beers at the kitchen window.

  88. 88.

    barbequebob

    @Dagaetch: I was thinking the same.  I take little comfort in the thought that a president as atrocious on so many levels as Trump will receive so many votes.  Is America really that morally bankrupt?

  90. 90.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Quinerly:

    Burn down granny. Give the olds everything they have voted for.

    Fuck ‘em. Is there a country that will pay me to betray this shithole? Happy to do it.

  93. 93.

    Chris Johnson

    @Adam L Silverman: Or in some cases until the polls close! Consider that.

    Waiting on the Lincoln Project stream. OOooo fuck, if you thought the troll action was bad HERE, oh my god… we’re just hammering away at the mantra ‘Fuck you, keep counting’.

  96. 96.

    guachi

    For those looking at the Midwest – Biden is up in MN by 15 and down in PA by 13. Neither of those numbers make much sense so we’ll just have to wait.

  97. 97.

    PsiFighter37

    Looks like Roy Cooper won, and there is an outside chance he dragged some people on downballot on state races over the line. But it seems like NC is looking like PA for us – Biden is narrowly going to lose, and Cunningham is going to underperform. Thanks a lot for not being able to keep it in your fucking pants, asshat.

  98. 98.

    Emma from FL

    OK, WTF? NPR has Biden at 209 electoral votes, 5Thirty Eight at 187 and MSNBC at 192. How the bleeding heck did that happen? I was just away for 15 minutes!

  99. 99.

    schrodingers_cat

    This doom posting dirge based on election day votes is exactly what the master troll wanted. That’s why he urged his supporters to vote on election day. Wait for the process to play out.

  102. 102.

    Suzanne

    CNN is reporting that Allegheny County has like ten trillion mail-in ballots to count. Fuck. I can’t sleep but I’m exhausted.

  104. 104.

    Emma from FL

    @Suzanne: Let us sit by the pool, properly social distanced, of course, and get bombed on margaritas.This is just the nuttiest night…

  109. 109.

    Jerzy Russian

    @Suzanne:   If we elected presidents by the popular vote, those trillions of votes would put Biden over the top.

    If we are going to keep the Electoral College, can California have its ~100 EC votes (this is based on population scaled to Wyoming)?

  113. 113.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jerzy Russian: I think that’s a crossed wire. Judge Sullivan – he’s got the Flynn case – has an emergency hearing at noon tomorrow because the USPS blew off his order to go through all postal facilities by 4 PM today, find any and all undelivered ballots, deliver them to election authorities before close of polls, and then report back to him. Apparently he is not amused and there is speculation he’s going to hold someone, most likely DeJoy, in contempt. I expect he’s going to have something to say, and order, regarding any ballots that are not accounted for.

  117. 117.

    Benw

    Holy hell people, I just got off a 17.5 hour shift working the polls in NY where we were too frantic to check anything outside our little center and THIS is what I find?

    FFS America!!

  120. 120.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    So much for James Carville who predicted Biden would have this thing wrapped up before 11:00 pm.

    Trying to maintain a degree of optimism.  I realize that a win is a win, but Trump is so uniquely despicable that I truly wanted to see him humiliated and not simply beaten in a squeaker.

  121. 121.

    hueyplong

    @schrodingers_cat: Exactly.

    We’re not going to get LBJ-Goldwater (did someone say “fuck LBJ”?), but there is plenty of reason to think we’re going to get the win.

    Get the three rusty knives that killed Hillary (PA, MI, WI) and add AZ for good measure.

    The three rust states aren’t like FL, TX and NC because they are places where the same day votes have come first.  We’ll come back and win them.

  123. 123.

    Adam L Silverman

    @guachi: AGAIN: PA IS LARGELY ELECTION DAY ONLY, ESPECIALLY IN PHILADELPHIA AND PITTSBURGH, WHICH ARE WERE THE DEMOCRATIC VOTES ARE!!!!!! THEY WON’T BE COUNTED TILL AT LEAST TOMORROW!!!!!!

    You keep posting this shit and I’m putting you in time out!

  126. 126.

    Quinerly

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: settle down.

    I still think Biden is going to win. It’s just going to be closer than I thought. Right now I flashed on a popular vote win for him and an Electoral College tie. After all, it is 2020. Anything can happen (dark humor, the “Beast Heavy” is kicking in)

  129. 129.

    Ohio Mom

    This afternoon I went to the supermarket. Everyone was masked up, in their everyday schlumpy clothes, pretty much keeping social distancing, more or less.

    Then, exiting past the self-checkouts, my eye caught a bright, sequined baseball cap, in stars and stripes. I took a longer look and it was sitting on the head of an older bottle-blonde
    woman in a neatly tucked-in red, white and blue Trump teeshirt, and she was beaming. With her mask fully pulled down to her neck.

    I hope that wasn’t an omen.

  130. 130.

    Yarrow

    @Quinerly:  When propaganda is tailored personally for people due to their willingness to give away all their personal information for free, and said propaganda shows up on their computer, tablet, and phone over and over again, eventually some of it sinks in. It’s not hard to manipulate people when those kinds of tools are available. We really need to figure out how to deal with social media, especially Facebook, because it’s destroying our democracy. And democracies around the world.

  132. 132.

    Chris Johnson

    They’re seeing Biden outperforming Hillary. They’re seeing a possible win for Biden in OHIO. Not guaranteed, but possible. Ohio is not considered a must-get state.

  136. 136.

    The Moar You Know

    So how many more times do pollsters have to fuck up before they go out of business?

    @Hunter Gathers:  Good question.  I majored in social psychology, which is basically polling and survey design.  Haven’t ever used it for work nor really kept up on it since then, but it is not rocket science.  Polls are polls.

    The polling is badly off.  It was badly off in 2016 and it’s looking like it may be even worse off this election.  That should not happen with an properly sized sample population, and the only conclusion I can come to here is that the survey firms – all of them – are not getting nearly enough people in their survey populations to be able to project accurately.  So they’re trying to work their raw data with “modeling” to compensate for their inability to get enough people to answer surveys, and it’s failing.  Badly.  Sam Wang’s career ended in 2016.  I think Nate Silver’s ends tonight, even if Biden wins.  His Senate projections are a joke.

  137. 137.

    John S.

    @Adam L Silverman: Well this would certainly explain the -20 point performance by Biden in Miami Dade.

    USPS also shared data that revealed low on-time deliveryscores of completed ballots, including about 74% in South Florida.

    It would seem that Trump got exactly what he wanted from Louis DeJoy and his wrecking the USPS. And even announcing their dastardly plan early didn’t stop them from executing.

  138. 138.

    Chris Johnson

    LP wasn’t expecting to get Texas or Florida, the one they’re serious about needing is Arizona

  139. 139.

    guachi

    @Adam L Silverman: No kidding. That’s why the numbers don’t make any sense. Nothing meaningful can be gleaned by looking at the current results.

    You don’t have to type in all caps.

  140. 140.

    Adam L Silverman

  146. 146.

    cain

    @Adam L Silverman:

    BTW looking at the totals, if we didn’t have those other democratic challengers, warnock would have won outright – but if we tally up the totals between the two parties it doesn’t seem like warnock would win on the run off? am I wrong?

  147. 147.

    Seanly

    I’m a wreck. I know there is still a lot of votes to count. Yeah, the urban areas in many states get updated last and are both a lot of votes as well as mainly Democratic. I wanted a clear Biden victory. At this point, I’ll take 295 Biden to 243 Trump.
    I’m not sure how my wife is so calm. I’m trying not to watch any news and the wife is just watching Criminal Mind reruns. I wish I had her serenity.

  148. 148.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    proud paleo-con Tom Nichols has been radicalized by like 10 points just since returns started coming in (the point he’s agreeing with is WI, MI and PA eventually coming in for Biden)

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom 26m
    I agree with Dan. I know you all think I’m doomsaying, but that’s because I think it sucks that the vote is closer than it should be in a country where the president is an sociopathic racist whose policies have killed tens of thousands of Americans.

  149. 149.

    PsiFighter37

    Man. All I can take away from this, barring Russian fuckery of actually altering vote counts, is that this country is fucked. Even if Biden wins, it’s not going to be a broad-based rejection. Whomever the GOP runs in 2024 will simply take Donald’s playbook and hone it even finer, and probably have more competent people in charge. It’s not a good sign at all.

  151. 151.

    debbie

    At this moment,Trump only has about 150,000 more votes. Stay calm!

     

    ETA Now it’s just about 20,000!

     

    ETA Biden is up 100,000!

  153. 153.

    Chris Johnson

    Lincoln Project are very direct on how they have been spending huge money and effort on PA, MI, WI, AZ

  160. 160.

    Chris Johnson

    @Sebastian: Arizona makes it MUCH easier for Biden to literally win the Presidency conclusively. He only has to win what, two out of three of these Midwest states that are seeing Obama-level turnout

    Mike Madrid at LP is saying ‘we don’t require Pennsylvania’, Biden can win without it

  165. 165.

    David ?Booooooo!? Koch

    In Lackawanna Co. (Scranton, Biden’s ancestral home), Biden is leading Trump by 9. Clinton beat Trump by 3.5 points in 2016. Also, with most votes counted, Biden’s raw votes in the county increased from 51,000 to 61,000.

  166. 166.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Omnes Omnibus: Yeah, but sometimes you’re wrong.

    @Suzanne:

     oh shit—this is going to get uglier than a top Big 10 team trying to keep up with a mediocre SEC team!
    (When raven wakes up he can explain this metaphor)

  167. 167.

    PsiFighter37

    I wonder how Bloomberg got his spending in 2018 so right in the House, and yet he blew $100 million in Florida in a month and Biden lost by an even greater margin.

  171. 171.

    cain

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Yesssssss! and we will get PA and MI – and if we can get florida it will all be over.

    Too bad about TX though. I assume TX has been called for Trump?

  177. 177.

    Kropacetic

    In blue wave 2018, I recall it initially not looking great for Democrats, the size of the win not becoming clear until the end of the vote counting.

  180. 180.

    Adam L Silverman

    @John S.: I don’t think that’s all of it. There was a concerted, well organized influence operation aimed at Cuban and Venezuelan Americans in Miami-Dade that centered on playing up fears of Communism, Socialism, and heavily leveraged anti-Semitism and anti-black racism aimed at Harris.

  181. 181.

    Ksmiami

    @MomSense: yes- we are a spartan proto fascist country with a lot of dumb people but with any luck they’ll off themselves. I’m looking into leaving but I think this nation needs to break apart

  182. 182.

    Blue Galangal

    How is GoBlueinOak still here?

    To everyone else: thanks for the updates. This is the only place I can bear tonight.

  186. 186.

    cain

    @PsiFighter37:

    Actually you should take heart that the newer generations are more brown than white – it’s going to be harder and harder to pull the xenophobic shit they have in the past.

    We know the GOP is cooked. We hold on to this presidency and eventually the demographics will move in our directions – they know this i- this is the white patriarchy’s last gasp.

    They are DONE. We will have this presidency and we will flip that goddam senate.

  189. 189.

    Chris Johnson

    Mike Madrid confirming that rural vote counts are coming in sooner and the urban vote is being delayed. Reports are that turnout is very high, though. Says that to LP, Arizona was ‘the weakest link’, the one they were least confident in winning. Arizona 53/45 Biden

  191. 191.

    Shalimar

    @Cheryl Rofer: There were 7 faithless electors in 2016, 5 who refused to vote for Clinton and 2 who refused to vote for Trump.  Barely getting to 270 is meaningless in this incredibly fucked up system we have.  I think Biden would still need Pennsylvania.

  194. 194.

    PsiFighter37

    Wow…even Gina Ortiz Jones is losing in TX-23 right now. Wendy Davis is going to lose. Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred will hold on, but it seems like hopes for grabbing more seats in Texas this year – forget it.

    Checked out VA, and both Lucia and Spanberger are far behind ATM. Lots of votes to count, but Spanberger in particular seems like she is in dangerous shape.

  195. 195.

    OGLiberal

    @Suzanne: Yeah, they have a lot more reporting than I expected by this time of the evening and, yup, looks bad.  MN and AZ looking pretty good but that’s not enough.

  197. 197.

    ballerat

    @guachi: This is the country of genocide, of death marches and concentration camps and small pox blankets. Of white supremacist terrorists in white hoods and of lynchings.

    Nothing could be more stark between decency and compassion on one hand, and corruption and depraved malevolence on the other than the last 4 years. The stories were not garbled by transit on the pony express. The crimes are on video.

    There can be no good germans here who may claim they knew nothing, were only following orders.

    We will see now who, or what, this nation really is.

    I hoped for repudiation. We may yet win but I fear we will not get a repudiation. Redemption is right out.

  198. 198.

    Sebastian

    @Adam L Silverman:

    So what happens with all those ballots? Aren’t there states which only accept ballots if they arrive by 11/3 and others that only require a postal stamp by 11/3 latest?

  201. 201.

    GoBlueInOak

    @cain: The challenge is that the browning of America is not evenly scattered across the country.   Places like California and Colorado and such are getting browner a way faster rates than places like Pennsylvania – which based on current demographic trends will remain a majority white state for a long time.

    In some ways, the GOP has it easier – they ONLY really need the white vote.   Democrats have to solve a high wire act where they promote themselves as the polyglot, polyethnic party while at same time not scaring off nervous whites.  (who are being actively courted by the White Peoples Party).

    If we had a national vote, wouldn’t be an issue.  But electoral college not going away, so we have to fight a land war every election cycle where the land terrain favors white voters.

  203. 203.

    Chris Johnson

    LP doesn’t expect to get Iowa, but it’s within one percentage point of going to Biden, 8 points better performance than Hillary had

  204. 204.

    cain

    @rikyrah: I thought that it was only one Democratic challenger. You are telling me that there were TWO Democratic candidates outside of him???

    Worse there was like three – I don’t know why those people didn’t just fold it. But yeah.. I don’t think they will get that seat.. the republicans had two and they were nearly both at 27 and 22, it would have been our best bet if those others have quit. But nope…

  206. 206.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Kornacki discussing county by county results in MI and PA, and not mentioning that in most of them, less than 50% of the vote is in.  It’s on the screen, but none of them say it. This strikes me as journalistic malpractice

  207. 207.

    Sebastian

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Looking at my map and I might have misclicked something.

    Counting WA OR CA HI NV AZ NM CO MN NY IL VA MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC and ME-State and ME-1

    NV is not in yet, right? Neither is MN. So those are wishful thinking on my end

  208. 208.

    Quinerly

    @Yarrow: I get what you are saying. I’m on FB probably too much but my circle is so small I never see the crazy stuff. Nothing gets targeted at me. I do realize how horrible it is when I get out of the boat? and read the comments on local press’s FB pages here in MO and in NC and NM. Lots of people drinking the Kool Aid and as I say living it up in the Death Cult. I have no idea what the answers are. Why people are so gullible and fall for evil.

  211. 211.

    Chris Johnson

    Interestingly, Mike Madrid is visibly stressed. I think it’s because he’s now burned all his bridges with the Trump/Republican party. He HAS to get a Biden win now, and he’s pretty sure the Lincoln Project’s been focussing in the right directions, but you can see him constantly thinking ‘what if?’ and if Trump ‘wins’ he’s more fucked than any of us. In fact he’s in more danger even if Biden wins, but I don’t think that’s gonna shake him. These people HATE Trump, so much.

  212. 212.

    Morzer

    @ballerat: Remember that it is extremely difficult to defeat an incumbent president – much less one who is has done everything he can to steal the election in advance.  Trump was always going to get 43% or so of the vote.  Throw in political polarization and that’s going to jump to something like 46/47%.

  214. 214.

    cain

    @GoBlueInOak:

    Won’t matter – in about ten years, the number of boomers and gen xers are going to be a lot smaller than the gen y and gen z. Gen Zs are a lot more progressive than the millennials – so there might be a mix there – but we are not going to be seeing a lot of influence from the boomers and gen xers as much – and I will say that they had a big voice in this election.

  215. 215.

    Adam L Silverman

    @cain: Yep. But remember, they’re not counting Fulton until tomorrow. And that will have a major effect on Warnock’s race, Ossof’s, and the presidential in GA.

  216. 216.

    Blue Galangal

    @Quinerly: I was working the polls today and literally these old white guys were saying, “Well, it’s the lesser of two evils and at least you know how evil Trump is…”

    I can’t with that. I CAN’T. He told them to drink bleach and they did. I don’t know where you go from there.

  223. 223.

    PsiFighter37

    Max Rose getting his ass handed to him in Staten Island. Ugh. I didn’t like that prick one bit, but he seemed to fit the ethos of those assholes well. Oh well.

  225. 225.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Ohio Mom: I was walking into Kroger earlier today (Cincinnati represent!) and at the same time a 4’6” elderly woman was walking out wearing a Trump hat decorated with, ironically, American and not Russian flags.  Thankfully I was wearing  a mask and, owing to my refined upbringing, speaking at less than full volume, but the words “f*** you!” came out of my mouth before I even knew it.  I had a shiv ready in case she reacted, but she could clearly tell from my private country club golf shirt and loafers with no socks that I was no one to be trifled with.  In the alternative, she didn’t notice me at all and heard not a word I said.  I prefer to think the former, but fuck these people for making me tarnish the memories of my genteel ancestors.

    anyhoo, I blocked off tomorrow on my work calendar and will be either happily playing golf or angrily playing golf.  In the interest of decorum, I may start with a mild Amarone Della Valpolicella, which I’ve found to be a good Wednesday morning wine.  Buongiorno, sciacallos!

  226. 226.

    Chris Johnson

    @cain: It’d be nice but I’m not sure Biden will get Iowa. Doesn’t seem to worry the LPers.

    I think we’re all looking for ‘epoch-making crushing of the republicans’, and it might be a bit soon to go there. Like, Texas going for Biden, etc, which would never have normally been considered. Florida. Stuff where, if this happens, the Republicans are literally done and have nothing.

    It’d be nice. We probably don’t have that yet.

  228. 228.

    Luciamia

    So what happens tonight? Anything still to be decided? To wait up for? Or is all the counting on hold till tomorrow morning?

  230. 230.

    frosty

    @Quinerly: Earlier, I had convinced myself of a landslide.

    I hadn’t convinced myself, but I had considered it. And I’d convinced myself that >300 EVs was going to happen.

    ETA: Fuck it, not sleeping. Will run out of bourbon but still have rye. Will apologize to liver and brain in the AM.

  233. 233.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Chris Johnson: I’m guessing Wilson never thought Dems were going to take FL. He’s from the Panhandle (I believe) and he’s always said Dems need about a 10% polling lead to come out ahead on election day.

  234. 234.

    Blue Galangal

    @Steve in the ATL: I was working the polls in Reading, and it was predictably Trump-heavy and depressing. It was so hard to be chipper. I clung to the fact that several women made a beeline for my blue sample ballots when they saw them.

  236. 236.

    Jinchi

    @Seanly: Remember, this was the takeaway on November 7, 2018

    In the end it was only a blue ripple, and that should prompt soul-searching among Democrats — particularly as everyone looks ahead to 2020. – Nick Kristof

    By December 2018, it was being described as a Blue Tsunami.

    There’s a reason Trump wanted the count shut down at midnight, tonight. Get some rest.

  239. 239.

    Jane Austin

    @eric: Jon Ralston is on my teevee saying there are still long lines at their polls and no results will be reported until they finish voting.

     

    @eric:

  240. 240.

    Eljai

    @Chris Johnson: Thank you for posting the Lincoln Project stream.  I’ve been watching and it’s really interesting.  Rick Wilson just basically told everyone to calm the fuck down.  I paraphrase.

  243. 243.

    mdblanche

    @Chris Johnson: I think the whole Lincoln Project has burned a lot more bridges than they realize. I think they’re going to be stuck a lot longer on our side than they planned. They may never get to go back.

  246. 246.

    Regine Touchon

    @ballerat: thanks for your righteous rant. We here in Alabama elected a con man football coach who as of this week said Trump was sent by god, over a man who prosecuted the clansmen who killed by bombing those little girls in Birmingham. And to think that almost half of American voters would vote for a man who is killing off people regardless of their political affiliation. I am so friggin. I can’t even.’

  247. 247.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @eric: Jon Ralston on MSNBC saying buckle up for early returns that show trump ahead, as rural numbers come in first. He seems confident that early/mail votes for the Dems overwhelm today’s R turn-out

  248. 248.

    Chris Johnson

    @mdblanche: GOOD. Why should they go back? They are really pissed off tonight, about COVID. Tara is bitching like a Balloon Juicer about Trump. They’re sooooo pissed off.

    They’re getting an extra Come To Jesus Moment, and I’m watching it live.

  249. 249.

    PsiFighter37

    @Jinchi: Look at the details a little closer…this is a ripple at best, and at worst, you will have Joe Biden with a fairly narrow win, and Mitch McConnell blocking every single Cabinet nominee come January.

  250. 250.

    NotMax

    @eric

    There are still some polling places open, with lines waiting to vote. Until all of them are closed there will be zilch coming out.

  252. 252.

    SWMBO

    @Jerzy Russian: It seems the only thing to get their attention is money.  I can’t remember if it was Nixon or Liddy that said if you get them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow.  If you grab them by the wallet, it seems to have the same effect.

  254. 254.

    PsiFighter37

    MSNBC calls Ohio for Trump. Not a great sign…hoping that the overall margin comes in so it reflects better for PA/MI/WI.

  255. 255.

    OGLiberal

    @David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Good to see Joe outperform Clinton in his birthplace – Hillary’s ties to Scranton were via her dad.

    That said, Obama won Lackawanna County by 27% in 2012 and by 26% in 2008.  Lackawanna County is almost all white people.

  256. 256.

    Chris Johnson

    Ha, now they’re bitching about Fox News and Facebook! They’re going full John Cole, it’s glorious :) and they’re still convinced Biden has most likely won this once all the votes are counted. Now they’re pledging emnity against Trumpism, not just Trump.

  257. 257.

    Geminid

    With 26% of the Montana vote reported, trump had a four point lead over Biden. But Steve Bullock was running ahead of trump, and well ahead of Daines. I think Montana will be a Senate pick up for the Democrats.

  258. 258.

    Quinerly

    @PsiFighter37: OK. If Mitch blocks every single Biden Cabinet appt as you have now said several times then Biden should appt who the fuck he wants and give them the title “Acting.”

    That’s what Trump has done. Yes, the system is broken and the Repugs broke it.

  259. 259.

    mdblanche

    @Chris Johnson: Yes I’m watching now too. Hard truths for them are starting to sink in. And they’re correctly identifying the problem we’ll all be facing in the hard years ahead: how do we deal with Trump being defeated but not Trumpism?

  260. 260.

    PsiFighter37

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Biden will win NV. Ralston’s analysis said Biden by 4%, and he knows that state like a god. Not worried about that, although implications for downballot races are uncertain (a bad thing, since Democrats run the state at all levels ATM).

  262. 262.

    Chris Johnson

    @mdblanche: I don’t know who this lady is, who’s a LPer but is talking literally like a lifelong bleeding heart liberal Dem. I’m glad they’re normalizing her, though: I’m used to the Lincoln folks being a lot more ruthless and mean, and here’s this nice lady all upset about kids in cages rather than just setting her jaw and going ‘how do we use this to beat them in X demographic’ like the rest of these folks

  263. 263.

    Chris Johnson

    If Bloomberg looks like a bozo after this, I won’t be entirely displeased. Wasn’t he supposed to give us Florida?

  264. 264.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Adam L Silverman: there were three early votes for Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock out  of the in the ATL household that may not have been counted yet.  Is that enough to swing the race?

  266. 266.

    Subsole

    @PsiFighter37: Last I looked, ol’ Mitch may not be too long for this world. Dude looked like an egg left in the sun for a week.

    But yeah. I am still really, really crushed. I expected better of us, after all this. I really did.

  270. 270.

    Puddinhead

    @Quinerly:  agreed. High rye content sippers like Whistle Pig are more interesting than bourbon sippers. Bourbons are still great but ryes are better. Like Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver, you can’t really lose, but you know who you want on the bump.

  271. 271.

    Subsole

    @PsiFighter37: The only other bright side I see is that we kept the house, and even our mildest senators seem to be spitting molten iron over the last four years. They are not in the mood to play nice anymore.

    If they have to, they will install an ‘acting’ cabinet a la GOP. Executive order their way thru COVID, and hopefully we come back and take another crack at it in 22.

  276. 276.

    Steve in the ATL

    @PJ: no reason to hang around the airport what with work travel shit down and all, so the wife and I have been mostly living out at Lake Oconee.  Trump country, but also golf and kayaking country so trade offs…

     

    So what have I missed around here?

  279. 279.

    frosty

    @Steve in the ATL: I had the opportunity many years ago to go to the field for the construction of SASOL 2 outside of Joburg. The fact that I wouldn’t get 10% hardship pay (like Iran and Saudi) and that Soweto blew up a few months before, led to my decision to quit the company, “retire” at 25 for 2 years and Railpass around Europe instead.

    I’m sure I missed a lot not seeing South Africa, but I don’t regret my choice.

    Apologies for comma errors. Many bourbons tonight.

  280. 280.

    frosty

    @Steve in the ATL: Yes, I can give him some guidance on SGs. First thing is to use a wound G string (phrasing!!!). That solved a lot of my tuning problems. Not all, but a lot.

    I just read that Pete Townshend was careful about smashing them and glued them back together because he was too broke to buy a new guitar after every gig!

  281. 281.

    PJ

    @Steve in the ATL: You haven’t missed much, man.  There’s that ratcheting tension where everyone thinks something really bad’s gonna happen, so they’re at each other’s throats, while the monster creeps closer outside the door.

    But I’m sure it’ll go back to normal petty sniping and circular-firing-squad stuff as soon as Joey Biden, as cool as the other side of the pillow, pulls this victory off tomorrow or the next day, and then really starts letting us down.

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