Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

with the Kraken taking a plea, the Cheese stands alone.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Don’t expect peaches from an apple tree.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

The gop couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

Consistently wrong since 2002

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Biden Is Speaking (Live in a few minutes)

Reader Interactions

243Comments

  4. 4.

    WaterGirl

    If you want comforting you should definitely listen to the video Tamara posted this morning before she went off-line.  I am adding it up top so folks can watch while we wait for Joe.

    But open it in a new window so you can keep an eye on this one so you can see when Joe starts to speak.

  7. 7.

    Curtis

    @WaterGirl: Yes, I saw that one too, the first 6 minutes are pretty informative, and also gives a timeline. I can see where the Biden campaign’s confidence is coming from.

  9. 9.

    Barbara

    @NotMax: They have been updating all day.  Current difference is 61,000 and by my calculations there are no more than 52,000 votes left to count (1% give or take).  Even if Trump won all of them, the margin would hold.

  10. 10.

    The Dangerman

    It will be nice to have a normal human being as President again.

    It would be nicer to have Trump do a Nixon and come out and say you’ll never here from him again but I’ll take what I can get. In the short term, Trump will be Trump and phone in to Fox regularly if not start his own channel. TrumpTV. Dedicated to being unfair and very very unbalanced.

  11. 11.

    Roger Moore

    Trumpers are now trying to break in and physically stop the count in both Michigan and Wisconsin.  The police have stopped them so far, but it’s clear they know they can’t win legitimately, and at least some of them are just fine blatantly stealing the election.

  14. 14.

    Another Scott

    Good speech.  I liked that he put down the marker that he can count, can see that he’s ahead, and expects the margin to grow, but is not declaring victory yet.

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    WaterGirl

    @debbie: For anyone who hasn’t seen the second video i added up top, it’s totally worth watching/listening to.

    Jen O’Malley lays out why the are certain of the win in WI (later called for us) and Michigan (later called for us) and Nevada and PA.  That takes 7 minutes.

    Then Bob Bauer talks about possible court challenges. Followed by questions.  Combined part that takes 20 minutes.

  21. 21.

    LurkerNoLonger

    Boy it will be nice to have a human being (and a cool German Shepherd) in the White House again.

  22. 22.

    debbie

    @WaterGirl:

    I think Joe’s got the win. Though some of them may be itching to interfere, I don’t think the SC will overrule the clear will of the voters. It’s just a matter of withstanding Trump’s bombast.

  25. 25.

    guachi

    It’s weird listening to Jen O’Malley now considering they nailed the calling of WI and MI. She mentions a PA deficit of 600,000 and it’s already down to 315,000.

  29. 29.

    WaterGirl

    @guachi: Also, if you listen past Jen O’Malley, Bob Bauer lays out very clearly that if the SC were to rule to interfere with the election, that they would be voting not against Biden, but against Democracy.

  34. 34.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: She says they “flipped” AZ.  They fully expect to win NV.  They think there’s a good chance to win GA and that they might win NC.  And that they are at 270 even without PA.

    edit: guachi is right, they did say the NC leans Trump but they think it’s possible that Biden could win it.

  35. 35.

    guachi

    @Curtis: Apparently there are thousands of ballots with signature mismatches in Georgia that can be rectified by Friday and be counted. Could be critical in deciding the Presidential election and if Purdue/Ossoff goes to a runoff.

  36. 36.

    Splitting Image

    I admit I’m disappointed that Lindsey Fucking Graham wasn’t tossed out on his ear but on the other hand I’m rejoicing that I’m not going to be spending the next four fucking years reading tweets from a demented lunatic and realizing over and over that he has access to nukes. And that the fuckers who voted him into office did so because he’s a racist, a rapist, a mobbed-up crook and a fascist.

    Christ, I left the Catholic church thirty-five years ago but I feel as if I could say a rosary every goddamned day for the next four years out of gratitude to Biden.

    What I’m saying is: thanks Joe. And Jill. Jill is cool. She’ll be a great First Lady.

  39. 39.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Roger Moore:

    @Leto: I hope there’s mass arrests and long jail time. Domestic terrorists, all of them. Fuckers.

    Agreed.  As much as Biden wants to put division behind us, fuck these fascist Trump trash motherfuckers.

  41. 41.

    Calouste

    @WaterGirl: The date for the runoff(s) in Georgia in January 5th, that’s 2 months from now, or in 2020 count, another 1 million Covid cases.

  42. 42.

    Splitting Image

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Okay, that’s MI. What about WI?

    Wisconsin was called for Biden a few hours ago. Trump is demanding a recount, but even Scott Walker said there isn’t much chance that that will change anything.

    We’re down to Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Georgia.

  45. 45.

    Calouste

    @mrmoshpotato: Putting political divisions behind us is one thing, prosecuting criminals is another. Biden should go for a “Broken Windows” policy with regards to electoral violations, down to people who put candidate’s flyers in residential mailboxes.

  47. 47.

    jl

    Lower chance riots will work this cycle. No hanging chads, just Chads banging on windows. Also, a news clip indicates counter protesters. locals,  there, advocating for honest elections, also an improvement over 2000.

  50. 50.

    guachi

    The higher the D vote in GA the incrementally better it will be for D Senate candidates in January.

    I don’t think anyone realistically thinks that Warnock and Ossoff will be favored but things could bounce their way.

  53. 53.

    guachi

    Nevada to count today not tomorrow because people are apparently interested in the results. You think?

  61. 61.

    The Moar You Know

    With regards to the attempted Brooks Brothers Boogaloo, part redux…where’s the originality?   These fucking people repeating the same greatest hits from twenty years ago and think we’ll fall for it twice?   The mind reels.  Not an original thought among any of them.  I suppose we should all be very grateful for that.

  63. 63.

    pacem appellant

    I’m feeling so much better about the presidency, but the Senate. Fuuuuuuck. Can Puerto Rico and D.C. hurry up and join the Union, pretty please?

  65. 65.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: Agreed. But Jen made a point in the video that they are confident that they already had WI, even if it hadn’t been called yet.  That they were certain they had MI and NV.

    But she did say: “We expect to win PA.”  that’s a direct quote.

  69. 69.

    Yarrow

    To my new Dem pals, I’m begging you, be happy. Please. @JoeBiden is racking up more votes than any candidate in history. You flipped Az, Mi, Wi, NE2. You’re going to flip Pa. & probably Ga. You beat an incumbent president. You elected first Black woman VP. Savor it. You won.
    — stuart stevens (@stuartpstevens) November 4, 2020

  70. 70.

    Mike in NC

    WaPo commenters musing whether Cindy McCain’s endorsement of Biden helped flip Arizona. John McCain’s revenge on Fat Bastard?

  71. 71.

    Baud

    @Yarrow:

    I agree.  It’s disappointing how much the other side motivates itself to come out, but it’s also something we should emulate.

  72. 72.

    MazeDancer

    Fox News, which has called AZ for Biden-Harris, has his current EV total at 264.

    NV may decide to move up their vote call to tonight. Nevada has 6 EVs.

    Which, if NV announces, means Fox could declare Joe Biden the next president of the United States.

  75. 75.

    natem

    @The Moar You Know:

    I blocked and reported him shortly after he threatened to nuke NK–seemed like a pretty obvious ToS violation but @jack disagreed, I guess. Today I unblocked him and am enjoying every last second of it.

  80. 80.

    Captain C

    @MazeDancer:

    WASHINGTON, DC 5Nov2020:  President Trump has gone missing.  He has not been seen nor heard from since a final, deranged tweet attacking Fox News as ‘backstabbers and rats’ at 2:47am.  However, a nasty mass of exploded flesh and bone, reminiscent of Mr. Creosote in Monty Python’s The Meaning of Life was found in the President’s personal water closet in the residential section of the White House.  DNA tests are pending…

  81. 81.

    Splitting Image

    @Geoduck:

    And Alaska, evidently. There’s a real nail-biter!

    Oops. Forgot about Alaska. I don’t think there are any scenarios left where they can flip the electoral college, but damn that Senate seat may be important. Fingers crossed.

  85. 85.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    It’s all reruns with the GOP, with Rudy doing a remake of Rove in 2008

    Fox News host Neil Cavuto abruptly interrupted an address by Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, as he ranted false claims about Democrats stealing the election, to tell viewers that the network’s decision desk had “concluded that Joe Biden has won Michigan.”

    https://twitter.com/TPMLiveWire/status/1324110618354438144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1324110618354438144%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingpointsmemo.com%2Flive-blog%2Frace-remains-tight-as-vote-tallying-in-key-swing-states-continues

  87. 87.

    Splitting Image

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I know that.  I was asking about allegations of violence.

    Not that I’ve heard of. I think they are focusing on Michigan and Pennsylvania. And if they need 10 more electoral votes they’ll probably head for Arizona.

    I think Wisconsin is probably safe. Pending the recount.

  88. 88.

    jl

    @guachi: Apparently, most of Georgia’s counting was stopped due an accident last night, water pipe burst IIRC, in a Democratic stronghold in Atlanta. So, no telling what can happen when all the votes are in.

    But, maybe Trumpsters are there trying to stop the unconstitutional water pipe repair and clean up crews.

  92. 92.

    Elizabelle

    @holyrood:   That is brilliant.

    “We built a diverse coalition of white people in militias and white people not in militias.”

    … Woman comforting another sobbing woman:  “Don’t cry, Jared.”

  94. 94.

    Calouste

    @MazeDancer: If Fox is the first to call the election for Biden, they’ll have to replace the carpet in the White House come January, because really, you can’t receive foreign guests when it has all those bite marks in it.

  95. 95.

    jl

    @Splitting Image:

    ” I think Wisconsin is probably safe. Pending the recount. ”

    Ex gov Walker, of all people, is on the TV, warning that WI counts are pretty darn accurate, and shouldn’t count on more than a few hundred votes changing. But. I guess he should know about WI recounts.

    Edit: wonder whether instinctual state pride will put a brake on things. Locals will get pissed with Trumpsters running around accusing them of incompetence and criminality whenever they don’t get the results Mr. Trump wants.

  97. 97.

    guachi

    @jl: Margin was 220,000 last night and then the place with the water pipe problem dumped a pile of votes and cut the margin to 118,000. Counting today has decreased the margin to 66,000 and Biden is winning by about 35ish percent since then, which would be enough to over come the deficit.

    Barely.

    People smarter than me so far see nothing to derail a call of “really close”.

  98. 98.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Splitting Image: People up thread said it was happening in MI and WI.  That is why is was asking.
    I am in WI and have been following it quite closely so I am aware of the state of play here.

  99. 99.

    zzyzx

    I knew about the pipe but was surprised not to see updates.

    Come on Georgia. I’m wanting to get every city in Rock’n’ Me!

  100. 100.

    Yarrow

    This is a real Trump tweet. Lol.

    We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (which won’t allow legal observers) the State of Georgia, and the State of North Carolina, each one of which has a BIG Trump lead. Additionally, we hereby claim the State of Michigan if, in fact,…..

  101. 101.

    notoriousJRT

    @Mike in NC: That will be my story, and I will stick to it as long as it makes the FB’s skin crawl with impotent rage.

    ETA: I doubt the McCain endorsement hurt.

  102. 102.

    Redshift

    @bluehill: As someone pointed out on Twitter, they would be having a Brooks Brother riot again but Brooks Brothers went out of business this year. Another dubbed them “brownshirts in cheap khakis.”

  105. 105.

    Peale

    @Yarrow: Huh? What the fuck is that? We just don’t let parties Claim where they actually win. I don’t think we’ve ever done that.

  106. 106.

    Butter Emails

    @Baud:

    Polling in Georgia looks like it will have proved to have been basically accurate once all the votes are tallied.

  107. 107.

    bluefoot

    @Yarrow: African-American, Indian-American woman VP!  OMG, I will cry happy tears when Kamala is sworn in. As a matter of fact, I am going to put in for vacation time right now for the inauguration.

  108. 108.

    randy khan

    @evap:

    Warnock winning head-to-head wouldn’t surprise me at all.  And it would be delightful for a Black candidate to dump Loefler out of the Senate (and even more delightful for that to be followed by a prosecution for insider trading, although my suspicion is what she did was unethical but not quite a violation of that law).

  109. 109.

    Luciamia

    I’ve been getting all my return updates here. Can’t stomach CNN. Just tuned in for a minute and their round table is about to eat each other!

  110. 110.

    Montanareddog

    Jake Tapper just now on CNN: “Rudy Giuliani held.a press conference today that was like something from a Coen Brothers film.” I did not hear about this. What happened?

  113. 113.

    natem

    Fox is now at the “It was supposed to be a landslide victory, and you’re barely going to go over 270. Hahaha Pwned, libs!” phase of things

  115. 115.

    Starfish

    @jl: The water pipe burst at 5:30AM yesterday. They knew about it and did nothing about it all day long so they could put off counting those votes. The Georgia NAACP was very unimpressed.

  120. 120.

    hueyplong

    @natem: I couldn’t be happier with the idea of Fox conditioning their viewers to the concept of a participation trophy.

  121. 121.

    jl

    @Starfish: Thanks for info.

    I was speculating a while back in the comments that the corrupt GA executive may have run through their standard tactics for voter suppression (which I think has mainly been finding ways to deny registration). So they’ve had to improvise and take whatever opportunities arise. But, I am just guessing here.

  125. 125.

    The Moar You Know

    As long as he has access to the nuclear codes, he’s not irrelevant.

    @Geoduck:   What’s he gonna do, nuke DC?  I think not.  He’s a fucking coward.  He has nothing; he’s played his last card and sung his last song and the bartenders are all giving him the shit eye because it’s time for everyone to go home.  Or, as I put it earlier, he’s now irrelevant.

  133. 133.

    jl

    NV accelerating their count and announcement. Maybe in attempt to avoid as much Trumpster BS and harassment as possible. Never misunderestimate Nevada! I live right next door and kind of like the place, so admit bias.

    ” JUST IN: Instead of delaying releasing results until tomorrow, Nevada officials will release more results later today due to the high interest in how Nevada voted.”

    https://twitter.com/8NewsNow/status/1324093130103205888

  137. 137.

    evap

    In GA, there is a system which allows you to “curate” your absentee ballot if it  has been set aside for a “signature mismatch”.  In involves going in person and producing your id, or something like that.  There are a bunch of these votes and I read that the Ossoff campaign is trying to reach these voters and get them to “curate” their votes.

  138. 138.

    piratedan

    as hopeful as I am that the numbers look good, I don’t believe I can come off of the ledge until its official tyvm…

    I really do want to believe but lets just say that if 2016 was PTSD, 2020 is a damn near as stressful waiting for it to be confirmed and then to deal with the aftermath that we have a wealth of truly stupid people in this country who once they have pro-offered their faith, it’s damn near impossible to convince them that they have done so unwisely.

  141. 141.

    James E Powell

    @Redshift:

    As someone pointed out on Twitter, they would be having a Brooks Brother riot again but Brooks Brothers went out of business this year.

    They did? Where will I get my seersucker suits?

  146. 146.

    Elizabelle

    Dueling headlines atop the WaPost.  Info about Biden closing in on the EC victory.  He’s at 253.

    And breaking news red banner:  United States tops 100,000 new coronavirus cases in a day for the first tim

    And please, please let this hold:

    Spanberger draws ahead of Freitas in Virginia as more absentee ballots are tallied

  152. 152.

    Baud

    @Yutsano: No crazy about the slogan, but the flag is pretty.

    MS also apparently changed their Jim Crow method of electing their governor.

  153. 153.

    bystander

    @holyrood: Perfection.   The Jared dig was truly LOL-worthy.

    After a discussion of repub efforts to stop the vote count, I swear I just heard Nicole Wallace exclaim her amazement that any political party would do that.  I guess she wasn’t born yet in 2000.

  154. 154.

    Yarrow

    @WaterGirl:  He’s desperate and panicked. His con game has worked for him for a long time and he’s giving it a go one last time. He’s tossing everything he has at it in hopes of causing enough chaos to steal the election. Because when he loses all those debts and court cases come crashing down on top of him. Tick tock, motherfucker. Tick fucking tock.

  155. 155.

    Elizabelle

    Accounting, perhaps, for the news that Nick Freitas was up by 712 votes against Abigail Spanberger, after count of the district’s population centers of Chesterfield and Henrico counties (which surprised me greatly):

    There were up to 20,000 more absentee ballots still uncounted in Henrico County — a part of the district where Spanberger has deep support.  (WaPost reporting)

  159. 159.

    pacem appellant

    @Elliott: How do we make this happen? It’s bad enough I have to endure Collins for another 6 years. Is there way to keep her on the side lines? (And f-u ME, you have one job, way to blow it).

  168. 168.

    Ridnik Chrome

    @Yutsano: I’m kind of sad that all these states are making it legal now that I’ve pretty much had to quit smoking the stuff.

  169. 169.

    stinger

    Just watched Joe’s remarks, and I’m almost crying. Don’t get me wrong — I want blood. I want heads to roll and orange jumpsuits to be the mark of members of this administration. But what I want may not be best. When Dukakis was asked if he would favor the death penalty if his wife were raped and murdered, I thought his response should be “I would want to kill him with my own hands. But we live in a nation of laws, and the laws should be followed even if someone had to personally restrain me.” That *may* be the case here, that my emotions should not rule the day. Thank you, Joe, for beginning already to try to heal this nation.

  172. 172.

    Redshift

    I just want everyone on our side to get ready to treat any win as a fucking landslide. We’re all traumatized because of the election night counts, but that has nothing to do with how much we win by. Repeat that to yourself, and get ready to repeat it to other people, because it’s true.

    And even if the result ends up being 270-268 (it won’t), get ready to talk with absolute certainty about how America rejected Trump, and is behind what the Democrats plan to do, because that’s what they’d do, and we have the advantage that it’s actually true, not some Electoral College bullshit.

  173. 173.

    Elizabelle

    It’s official.  Abigail Spanberger re-elected to Congress in Virginia. This was Eric Cantor’s old seat, with a Tea Partier in between.  Exhaling.

    WaPost: Spanberger declares victory over Freitas in Virginia as more absentee ballots are tallied

    First-term Democratic congresswoman Abigail Spanberger declared victory late Wednesday evening over Republican challenger Nick Freitas, after a burst of absentee-vote tallies gave her a substantial lead.

    Spanberger was trailing Freitas, a state delegate, when in-person voting results were reported Tuesday night for the 7th congressional district, which is anchored in the suburbs of Richmond. But she led by several thousand votes after Spotsylvania County reported its final absentee ballots.

    There were up to 20,000 more absentee ballots still uncounted in Henrico County — a part of the district where Spanberger has deep support.

  175. 175.

    The Moar You Know

    “We have claimed, for purposes of our own, this bathroom with a tacky as fuck gold toilet here in the White House.  I was stress eating hamberders all night trying not to think about how Putin is gonna get 400 million dollars out of my hide.  You guys might want to clear out of here for a couple of hours, I’m not feeling so hot.  I’m serious”

  176. 176.

    Captain C

    @Yutsano: As a New Yorker, I must say that I am embarrassed that our Gov and Lege could not make legalization happen before South F*cking Dakota.

    (But congrats to SD and the rest on their excellent votes.  Also, Gov. Cuomo, you could have had those tax dollars, including the ones I’ll be spending on my soon-to-be-frequent PATH rides to Hoboken and Jersey City.)

  178. 178.

    Kent

    @Redshift: The popular vote difference is already more than 3.3 million and that number will likely increase as the count continues in CA.  It is at 50.3% vs 48.0%  or a 2.3% difference and growing.  That is a real refutation of Trumpism.   MILLIONS more Americans supported Biden.

  182. 182.

    Kattails

    @Yarrow: Hey, how are you holding up?  You seemed pretty ragged yesterday/last night/whatever unstuck in time frame we’re in. Sending you some good energy.

  183. 183.

    jl

    @WaterGirl: “Jen O’Malley lays out why the are certain of the win in WI (later called for us) and Michigan (later called for us) and Nevada and PA.  That takes 7 minutes.”

    If projected outstanding votes for each county follow their current margins, then the additional votes should add around 5K to the Biden lead, mainly due to size of Clark and Washoe counties. Election would flip only if margins in those two counties were cut in half. Jon Ralston, NV politics expert, says most of the outstanding votes are mail ballots from Clark (aka, Las Vegas), but we don’t know much about where they came from in Clark, which has more than Las Vegas, though not all that much.

    Let’s hope for the best.

  184. 184.

    zzyzx

    @croaker: That math doesn’t work quite as well as you think. If Biden wins 2/3 of those votes, he gets about 700k yes, but Trump gets another 300k. The delta is only 400k or so votes, which is still enough to win but it’s much closer than what you were thinking so a change in that percentage would be enough to break that calculation.

  185. 185.

    Kent

    @croaker:

    I say this every other post but PA is Biden’s.  Trump’s lead is down to 302,387 there are 1,066,963 mail in ballots outstanding in heavy democratic areas.  2/3rds of all mail in ballots requested were democratic .  That math is 704,195 Bingo and Biden wins.  Track them here:

    https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

    You forgot to add in all the Trump votes as well for the 1/3 of the vote he will get from these uncounted ballots.

    2/3 x 1,066,963  = 711,308 Biden votes

    1/3 x 1,066,963 = 355,654 Trump votes

    711,308 Biden votes – 355,654 Trump votes equals a vote difference of 355,654 which would put Biden in the lead by 53,267 votes, which is a lead but a squeaker.   If the percentages are less than 2/3 for Biden he may not get there.  Assuming all your numbers are correct.

  188. 188.

    CaseyL

    TPM just posted a tweet that Gary Peters (D-MI) has won re-election, by 11000 votes and counting.

  191. 191.

    mali muso

    Apparently Trump is dropping the recount lawsuit in Wisconsin. Guess someone told him he’d have to pony up $ for it. Lol

  192. 192.

    catatonia

    @Montanareddog: This past four years has been an exercise in what the Executive Branch would look like if Johnny Caspar from “Miller’s Crossing” had been elected president. Complete with Bob Barr as the Dane.

  193. 193.

    Kattails

    @WaterGirl: Yes. He really fucking is.

    Go read Bandy Lee’s website, she’s the one who edited The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump and has been trying to warn us about his criminal insanity for years.

  195. 195.

    Starfish

    @evap: A lot of states that have mail-in ballots allow curing of the ballots. It happens because people have crappy handwriting.

  196. 196.

    Starfish

    @Baud: The slogan was what it took to get Republicans to vote for it. We will change racist flag if you make it Jesus-y. ?

  200. 200.

    Kent

    @mali muso:Apparently Trump is dropping the recount lawsuit in Wisconsin. Guess someone told him he’d have to pony up $ for it. Lol

    20,000 votes is pretty impossible.  A recount usually uncovers uncounted ballots.  Ones that were never counted in the first place, or ones in which no choice was recorded for that ballot line because the machine didn’t read a light pen mark or something.  It rarely flips a ballot from Biden to Trump.  When they recount they are going to find some uncounted Trump ballots, for sure. But also uncounted Biden ballots.  So even if they were to find Trump ballots at a rate of 2 to 1 over Biden ballots, they’d still need to find over 40,000 uncounted Trump ballots to pull into the lead after the 20,000 new Biden ballots were also added.  And that would only happen if the only place they find uncounted ballots is in the most Trumpy areas.  Probably just as likely (or more likely) to find them in big jurisdictions like Milwaukie.  Or in about the same ratios as the actual vote…so about 50/50.

    That’s huge gap to make up.  That’s a 40-times larger gap than Florida 2000 in a much smaller state.

  201. 201.

    jl

    @Kent: @zzyzx:  Hey, I got my spreadsheet too. Using just updated numbers from NYT, Biden is making up ground. So, slightly more wriggle room, around 70,000.

    I heard outstanding votes are mostly early mail in due to Dem GOTV and were coming in more than 70 percent for Biden. So, that would a cushion of around 125,000. I hope that trend keeps up

  205. 205.

    Calouste

    @Kent: In the olden days with manual counting it was more possible that someone mistakenly tabulated the wrong vote originally (everyone makes mistakes at the end of a long day) and the vote would indeed flip on the recount. But with machine reading that is fairly unlikely.

  206. 206.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @Elliott: I just have to say it.  The cost of elections in this country is insane as is watching Act Blue thermometers.  Boatloads of money in many races made absolutely no difference. This will not happen in my lifetime, but I fervently hope some day this changes.

    Was it just this week that an Aussie jackal recapped their election…taking like 75 days with 90% participation after which everyone went on with their lives? While we “have to” already prepare for 2022 and 2024 before we know the results of 2020? FWIW, I don’t even disagree but this is because our cycles never end and everyone gets fleeced.

  207. 207.

    jl

    @Kent: I heard a news report that Scott Walker, of all people, was on the TV saying that those WI vote counters are damn good, so don’t count on getting more than a few hundred out of a recount.

    Either edging away from Trumpsters, or state pride, or both, or maybe what he said is actually true, even if Walker said it. Who knows?

  213. 213.

    Calouste

    @Sure Lurkalot: Australia has a high participation because voting is mandatory. What also helps in most parliamentary democracies that there’s always the possibility of an early election, and that process has to be quick by its own nature. And I don’t think there is any other country that has the primary process that the US has, candidates are nominated by the party congress or by the local party organization in a district.

  218. 218.

    Calouste

    @jl: There’s going to be a big market for “moderate Republicans “ on the networks if Biden wins the election, and Scott wants a slice of that pie.

  219. 219.

    Splitting Image

    @Kent:

    Trump’s lead in PA is down to 260,000 votes, according to TPM. If 88% of the vote is in, then based on their numbers there should be about 730,000 votes outstanding.

    This is doable. Still looks like a tall order, but doable.

    If I were Trump, I would hereby claim the territory of Wyoming on behalf of the commonwealth of Pennsylvania and add their vote total to the PA numbers. That would do the trick.

  221. 221.

    Kent

    @Splitting Image: It would take 68% of the remaining vote to go Biden and he would win by 2,000 votes.  Not all of it is from heavy Biden areas so that may be a heavy lift to get there.

  225. 225.

    Kent

    @jl: I’m sure Scott Walker knows.  He’s been in a lot of close WI elections.  He’s probably just telling the truth.  Spin doesn’t achieve anything at this point in WI.

  228. 228.

    J R in WV

    @Starfish:

    A lot of states that have mail-in ballots allow curing of the ballots. It happens because people have crappy handwriting.

    My wife and I voted early in person last week. They had little digital screens for us to sign, wife couldn’t make it work, as the digital screen had no where to rest your hand to sign. So they asked her to sign with an ink pen on the paper read-out.

    I said to  the guy working our sign-in, “These digital signature devices make us all write like we were in the 3rd grade, don’t they?” and he agreed. We showed our voter’s registration cards so the early voter center would know which precinct our votes were to be booked to. But the signatures were illegible. Totally.

    Now, on a mail-in ballot, which we could sign with an ink pen on the dining room table, we could produce a more recognizable signature.

  229. 229.

    Splitting Image

    @Kent:

    It would take 68% of the remaining vote to go Biden and he would win by 2,000 votes.

    My understanding is that most of the votes are from Philly county, which is 79% for Biden. Like I said: doable.

    I’m not going to eat a bug if Biden falls short here, but considering that Trump is claiming victory and Biden’s camp think they have the votes if everything is counted, I know where I’m going to put my quatloos.

  233. 233.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    So is anybody else beginning to freak out over potential faithless electors, whether legit or blackmailed?

  236. 236.

    artem1s

    I was in full panic attack last night especially after I let myself get distracted by the early reports from OH.  I was totally freaking out about how far down Joe was in PA.  Then Joe announced he would addressed the nation and my blood pressure spiked. That’s usually a really bad thing given where the count was at that point.

    Then someone posted the twitter feed about the PA absentee ballots not being counted until sometime today.  Once I thought about the states sitting on their absentee ballots the numbers started to make a lot more sense.  Honestly after watching the count unfold today I have to say I’m completely impressed by the Biden campaign.  They were completely ready for this.  They understood what the polls were really indicating and what states they should be keeping an eye on. AND they kept talking to their base and the media.  They kept on message and didn’t get distracted from the hot orange mess on twitter or the stenographers trying to heighten the suspense.  That press conference earlier today about the counting was amazing. It was so wonderful to listen actual, competent people talk calmly about what was going on.  No panic or aggrandizing or hyperbole – and not a hint of condescension.  Just a couple of professors sitting around, contemplating the various scenarios, telling us to chill the fuck out, they’ve got this. Nothing unexpected is happening. Nothing to panic about. I can’t wait for these guys to be given full reign so they can bring this level of expertise and messaging back to the White House.  Whomever Joe’s Chief of Staff is or campaign manager or whomever helped with this strategy – HUZZAH! HUZZAH! HUZZAH! HUZZAH! HUZZAH!

    They analyzed the polls, figured out where their advantages were, observed what lawsuits the GOP was queuing up, made a plan for their legal challenges, stayed on message, and executed it flawlessly.  It’s pretty impressive when you think about it.

  238. 238.

    Kent

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:So is anybody else beginning to freak out over potential faithless electors, whether legit or blackmailed?

    Good way to get yourself assassinated I would think.  These are ordinary people for the most part.  They can’t hide forever from enraged partisans.  They would never be able to go home and would have to live the rest of their lives in witness protection.

  240. 240.

    croaker

    Trump isn’t even close to getting a 1/3 of the mail in PA.  The math does work if you think.  Doom post and cry.  It doesn’t help.

  242. 242.

    croaker

    @WaterGirl:  don’t want to get into it.

    Suggestion – Next election get posters from keys states to provide updates an analysis.

    ThX for listening and everything you do.

  243. 243.

    WaterGirl

    @croaker:

    Suggestion – Next election get posters from keys states to provide updates an analysis.

    I had actually planned to try to recruit people this time, but didn’t get it together in time.

Comments are closed.