Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

A consequence of cucumbers

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

You can’t love your country only when you win.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

No one could have predicted…

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

…and a burning sense of injustice to juice the soul.

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

There is one struggling party in US right now, and it’s not the Democrats.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2020 / Greetings From Panic Central

Greetings From Panic Central

by | 98 Comments

This post is in: 

I am finally starting to feel a little bit better about the election and looking at the current status, believe regardless what happens in GA and PA, there is not much Trump can do to win. It looks very much like it is going to be President Biden.

I still feel like hammered shit and have had two naps today, and my emotional support animals are sleeping on the job:

Greetings From Panic Central

The GOP is going to try their usual bullshit, but I don’t think they can do anything about it.

Reader Interactions

98Comments

  2. 2.

    Felanius Kootea

    My stomach is a nervous mess – I don’t dare eat anything today, but I agree that Biden will win.

  4. 4.

    guachi

    I live in Georgia.

    Pray for me and the election commercial bombardment with potentially two runoff elections to decide the Senate if the Democrats win both.

    Also, Biden now leads Trump by 2.11%. Clinton beat Trump by 2.10%. I think Biden can finish with a 5 point win when it’s all said and done.

  6. 6.

    JPL

    @Felanius Kootea: So is mine, but it’s because of cheese sticks, wine and snickers.   Who knew that would cause aches.

     

    JOHN, Make sure that you walk even if it’s from room to room.   Even a minute is suppose to help.

  7. 7.

    The Dangerman

    Don’t think they can do anything? Just wait. They are nothing if not imaginative.

    I’m not comfortable until 1/20/21. More correctly, I’m not comfortable until Trump and his evil spawn disappear, hopefully to never be heard from again*

    *Trump will run again in 2024 and try and sell more hats. Probably with Ivankaka under him. So to speak.

  10. 10.

    Martin

    Katie Porter currently up by 9 here in CA-45. That’ll almost certainly expand as more votes are counted – late ballots favor Dems here.

    I think it’s safe to say that for the time being, we’ve partially broken the GOP stronghold in OC. Mind you, this is really, really illustrative of having such an outstanding candidate. There are a lot of lessons here. Katie is not exactly a ‘central casting’ candidate. She’s a mom, looks like a mom, sounds like a mom, but you’ll note she doesn’t posture in Congress. She’s visible, effective, genuine. Dems need to keep electing people like her. I would argue the Squad are also good in that same way.

  13. 13.

    batguano

    I’d rather be where we are right now, than in Trump’s position. It will be interesting (to say the least) if we ever get a count of how many ballots where lost due to USPS fuckery, spoilage, etc.

    Also, how the fuck can people want to keep the guy that botched the response to what is now the 4th largest mass casualty event in US history?  It may even overtake WW2 by inauguration day for the #3 spot.

  14. 14.

    OGLiberal

    Already started the Brooks Brothers Riot, 2020 Edition, in Michigan.  And I think they’re saying, “We won PA and we’re going to send lawyers there to stop the vote counting…you know, because we said we won”.

  18. 18.

    Bill Arnold

    Mood:

    I miss the carefree, uncomplicated early days of October when we were checking Twitter every five minutes to see if Trump was dead yet— Pinboard (@Pinboard) November 4, 2020

  19. 19.

    Geminid

    This morning I said that Nick Freitas had beaten incumbent Democrat Abigail Spanburger in the Virginia 7th Congressional District, but I spoke too soon. Spanberger has cut Freitas’ lead to 553 votes, and counting of absentee ballots continues. Freitas is the Club for Growth’s blue eyed boy, and I’d hate to see him in Congress.                   Bob Good, who won my 5th District, is less dangerous, and will be a one termer after the district is redrawn. If Charlottesville and Cambell County are still in the same district, I expect Cameron Webb to beat him in a rematch in 2022.

  20. 20.

    Dagaetch

    Setting aside the utter terror that Trump might win, and all thoughts on policy, I was thinking about why this is so gut wrenching. It’s like we’ve been watching a season of TV, and last night was the season finale. Unfortunately, at the end of part 1, the love interest we were all rooting for (Senate) was killed off. This is incredibly disappointing – we all liked her and wanted them to get together! And then, instead of getting the final hour, we got a card “final episode coming soon!” And so we’re very upset about the state of the show going into the final episode! We still believe that the main character (Biden) will survive, because hey it’s network tv, but after a season that got all our hopes up, it’s an incredible letdown, AND we didn’t get the closure we were expecting last night. So yeah. Just…ugh.

  21. 21.

    debbie

    Joe’s speaking now. Listen to his remarks and feel the panic melt away. He’s more than ready for the fight it will take to make Trump cry uncle.

  25. 25.

    Laura

    I have been unable to read the news.. I can’t concentrate on anything. I am simultaneously bored and so nervous that i can’t sit still yet so paralyzed that I can’t take a walk or do anything constructive.

    I do have some personal good news. I trapped a cat that I have been trying to rescue for months and she is now at a sanctuary. She is somewhat feral, a dainty little thing, black with yellow eyes. She had two litters (that got rescued) before I could catch her.

    I have loved her for a while. SHe would not let me touch her but came when I called. She lived in the woods about a forty minute drive from my home. I have been leaving food for her for months. Her name is Olivia, from Oliver “Please, may I have some more?”  She will never be hungry again.

  26. 26.

    Barbara

    @OGLiberal: That’s going to be a lot tougher when the difference is 61,000 and not 300 votes.

    I have lost three pounds since Monday.  Due to, I think, a chronically elevated heart rate.

  31. 31.

    hueyplong

    @The Dangerman: Ha ha, they were ready to do it this year.

    I am already tired of hitting “refresh” so much.  AZ, NV and MI need to go final so we can start to take out the trash.

  32. 32.

    jl

    Trumpsters trying to stop counting in Michigan where Biden is ahead.

    I heard on the news that Trump is simultaneously suing in some state to continue counting where he is behind, and stop where he is ahead.

  33. 33.

    OGLiberal

    @p.a.: My wife heard about the Trump camp saying they were sending lawyers to PA to stop the counting.  I said, “And what…Tom Wolf and the SoS there are going to say – Well, OK….whatever you say”

    Of course, that’s the way Trump thinks it works….”I was winning at Midnight on election night….game over!”

    The irony that Nate Silver pointed out is that if you stop counting now, Biden wins.

  34. 34.

    jl

    @jl: Michigan protest is centered on Detroit, so it does make sense from Trump pov

    Edit: I guess the goal is to keep it close for lawsuits coming up from Trump campaign.

  35. 35.

    OGLiberal

    @hueyplong: I don’t think Biden is going to lose NV but you may be waiting a while on that one.  Couple orgs already called AZ – I don’t think that’s going to change.  My guess is we’ll start getting calls on MI very soon.  Biden up by over 1% and 60K votes with 99% reporting.

  44. 44.

    Barbara

    @OGLiberal: The state legislature prohibited counties from beginning their count until the polls closed on election day.  The delay is imposed by state law.

  47. 47.

    Aleta

    @Laura: How did you first discover her?  How many visits before she knew you?  How many before she came to you?   And thanks for the positive news.

  50. 50.

    hueyplong

    @Bex: No, no, I’ve got the under and am inviting over bets.

    Hell if I’m going to root for him to take a breath successfully.

  51. 51.

    pacem appellant

    This was a good year to be on the wagon. I’d be dead in ditch from alcohol poisoning otherwise.

  52. 52.

    jl

    @Jamie: Silver also has a model. I’m not a fan of his model. But all the models I know of were too optimistic for Dems and gave similar results in terms of average outcomes. Silver was better at warning about range of uncertainty, though again, all the models I know had ranges of reasonable outcomes that included what happened.

  53. 53.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    You know, if anyone is feeling sick to their stomach panic, go do something physical to bleed off that adrenaline.  Take a walk, lift some soup cans, what ever works for you. That fight or flight thing pumps you full of adrenaline and then it decays to poison after a while, thus the sick to the stomach and the limbs hurt thing.

  54. 54.

    David ?Booooooo!? Koch

    It looks very much like it is going to be President Biden.

    Looks like the My Pillow guy won’t be appointed to SCOTUS

  55. 55.

    hueyplong

    Some dude named John Bresnahan:

    “Pennsylvania Democratic officials are privately telling Biden campaign officials that they believe final margin of victory for Biden in Pennsylvania will be 100K-200K votes when the counting is finally done.”

    Make it so.

  56. 56.

    Jamie

    @jl: True, but the model is based on polls, and this looks like a case of garbage in, garbage out. Even aside from models, I don’t know how the hell you get from a rock-steady +8 polling average in Wisconsin to <+1% (for example) without some kind of polling catastrophe.

  61. 61.

    Yarrow

    @Gin & Tonic: Polling as a business seems to have problems. I guess if their margin of error was 15 points they’d be okay, but that’s not very useful.

  65. 65.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: Did you listen to the Jen O’Malley video?  It’s in TaMara’s thread from this morning and in the next thread over.

    They are CONFIDENT that they have PA.  And NV.  They also think likely Georgia, and possibly NC.  They said they are at 270 even without PA.

  68. 68.

    James E Powell

    @WaterGirl:

    The Biden campaign and the NYT’s guy are confident about PA – not we think we got, but we got it – and the Trump campaign and the whole world of Republicans are not.

  69. 69.

    Calouste

    @Jamie: Silver rates the pollsters, and uses that in his model. So if his numbers are off it is because he is not very good and working out which pollsters are good.

  72. 72.

    A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)

    @Laura: Congratulations and good for you!  It’s so rewarding when a feral cat starts to trust you a bit and you can rescue them. It took a long time but you did it!

  74. 74.

    Laura

    @Aleta: I used to have an elderly friend who lived in a cabin in the woods in an area overrun by strays. We kept food out on the porch. I visited regularly for two years but her dementia got too bad and she went to a very nice adult family home The cabin went up for sale. Olivia continued to visit, looking for us. And I continued to go to the cabin, looking for her The hang up was trying to get a rescue to take a semi feral black cat–unadoptable. The sanctuary where she lives now only accepted her provisionally–she had to be disease free and no righworms. I was terrified that she would not pass the tests but she did.

  75. 75.

    jl

    @Calouste: So many public state polls use different methodologies, and some of them have serious problems down in the technical weeds, I think all models that use state polls have that problem. The choice is to just use a few high quality polls, versus using a wide range (which IMHO brings up the ‘garbage in, garbage out’ problem, too many systematic biases that may not average out by just including more).

    Also, I think evidence of both parties spamming the public poll releases late in races. Edit: another problem of poll errors not averaging out just be including more. Can’t depend on that if both parties are strategically releasing them. Reducing error and eliminating bias by including more polls only works for random sampling error, not systematic errors, or attempts at manipulation by those producing the polls.

  81. 81.

    Shana

    @Geminid: So happy about Luria and Spanberger. I do not understand how people can look at Good and Webb and pick an unreconstructed nutjob like Good.

  82. 82.

    A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)

    @Laura: I have no idea of your situation and you sound very relieved to have her in the sanctuary so that is probably the best outcome for both you and her, but I just wanted to say that if you could keep her, she already trusts you and in my experience, semi-feral cats can be tamed down.  It just takes a while before you can touch and then pet them (i.e. months) and she would probably remain a one-woman cat but she could also be very sweet with you.

  83. 83.

    Geminid

    @Jamie: The “shy trump voter” concept pushed by conservative media may have been a self-fulfilling prophesy. trump supporters are generally hostile to the “mainstream media” establishment, and pollsters are part of that, so they wouldn’t need much encouragement to clam up.

  86. 86.

    Geminid

    @Shana: trump carried the VA 5th by 11 points in 2016; it was drawn to be a republican district in 2010. And while trump was a powerful GOTV factor for the Democrats, he also energized his base base. I wonder if the republicans will sustain that energy once he is out of office. I think the Democrats will. If Webb and Good end up in the same district in 2022, I think Webb will beat him in a rematch. I saw Webb speak at an event in Stanardsville, and followed him from the primary to the general election. He will be a strong candidate in a neutrally drawn district.

  88. 88.

    Geminid

    I caught the 5:30pm CBS Radio news. They had a good soundbite from Joe Biden: “No one will take away our Democracy! Not now, not ever!”

  93. 93.

    J R in WV

    @Laura:

    So glad to hear about your success capturing your feral kitty. I’m sure Olivia will be very happy with regular meals and affection from you.

    Also, Joe B appears to have won both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote. Unless there are a bunch of faithless electors, which would be unAmerican and terrible.

    Best wishes for your kitty!!

  94. 94.

    laura

    @Laura: She will never be hungry again.

    I’ve been feeling so down today – so disappointed in the state of the electorate. I’m teary in the best of ways because of your kindness and diligence. Thanks for this – sincere thanks?

  95. 95.

    Ruckus

    @Yarrow:

    Bingo.

    They are in it for the money. If they were fully honest they would tell us that getting a reasonable answer would take far more time, money, effort, and require a lot more input, as there is just no way to predict anything like politics without a huge, widely varied polling area.

  96. 96.

    Aleta

    @Laura:  Hearing about your effort for her means a lot to me today.  And that you succeeded for her, never a sure thing, is just …  well done, to say the least.  One kind of love story imo.

  97. 97.

    jackmac

    @David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Down here in Illinois we’ve always considered Wisconsin to less a state than a  play land and our northern province. You can rent a vacation home up in Door County, go snowmobiling, maybe a place to send your kids to college (UW-Madison) or catch the Cubs smack the  Brewers at Miller Park. Oh yeah, it’s home of  of the Green Bay Packers, located in that quaint burg to the north. Also, we may have our share of legendary corruption, but we don’t get scammed by hack Republican governors (looking at you Scott Walker) and unscrupulous Chinese business interests seeking for handouts.

Comments are closed.