Steve is in bed and looks like bloated groundhog roadkill on an August day, so I guess that’s pretty much it for election night 2020.
I’ll see you all tomorrow for our regularly scheduled panic attacks featuring some swearing and prolly a good bit of stress eating.
rikyrah
Steve looks great??
I am trying to go to sleep.
Want to
But, can’t??
Subsole
See you then.
And thanks for giving us a place to go crazy.
cain
Be strong – tomorrow it will be a win. The mango man will not hold sway.. a win is a win is what I’m sayin.
Quinerly
@cain: ?
guachi
Massive number of votes in for Biden in GA. Lead cut from 223,000 to 118,000. It was from a very Biden area with Biden getting 72% of the vote.
He needs to win the remaining vote by about 65-70% or so from what I read and it’s probably why the NYT Needle moved from a projected Biden +0.3 to +0.4.
Also important is Perdue at 51%. Ossoff probably won’t catch him but he doesn’t have to. Just below 50% for a runoff.
seefleur
Steve’s belly is so irresistibly rubbable! (And the pink lighting really highlights that.) He’s a very handsome dude – and I have two handsome feline dudes of my own, so I know of what I speak… Thanks for a tiny bit of non-political breathing space before I head to bed here on the east coast. The Juicers are a good bunch – really, I mean it!
Aleta
Come on Milwaukee County you’re my hope.
JWR
NE goes to Trump. Only 4 or 5 EVs.
frosty
Thanks John, you’re blog and curmodegonly you has been a lifeline. Here’s hoping we pull this one out.
Yarrow
@cain: I think you were interested in Sri Kulkarni’s race in the Houston suburbs. Sadly, he didn’t win.
guachi
Montana called for Daines.
Aleta
cain
@Yarrow:
I was! Dammit – Sorry to hear that. :/ We will go after Texas again 2 years. It will turn blue – and I still think shenanigans have happened.
ETA: What Charles Pierce says – it seems that something is not right in Texas and there should be some investigative journalism going on there.
Aleta
@Aleta: I feel like that with some places in ME 2nd district. But count not over, so maybe it’s that.
Chris Johnson
For those who need a dose of Michael Steele mocking Trump’s situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDpRT2t6CjA&feature=emb_title
1:33:32 “He can’t declare shit! He’s at 136 electoral votes! What’s he gonna say?! Oh! I’m a hundred and, what, twenty four votes away? COME ON! Stop!”
Good night, all. Trump needed to be CLOSE to winning on just those votes alone, to call for the counting to be stopped. We prevented that :)
Aleta
Tonight gave me black spots on the brain.
Night.
Eolirin
@guachi: I think that’s it for our senate chances. That’s very bad.
Yarrow
@cain:
Evergreen….
Martin
FFS, Prop 22 is going to pass.
frosty
@rikyrah: I’m right with you there. I won’t go to sleep until I nod out in front of the computer. Damn these interesting times – damn them to Hell!!!!!
sdhays
@Martin: For those of us not in California, is that good or bad?
Geoduck
Someone beat me to my original comment, so.. here in WA state, things played out about like expected. Inslee stomped on the mask-denying goober the GOP horked up. Dem backbencher Danny Heck ambled his way into the Lt. Gov. office. We still have a GOP secretary of state, for some reason. A pro sex-ed referendum passed. And of course, Biden got our electoral votes.
Calouste
@sdhays:
That’s the “drivers are indentured servants to Uber” proposition.
piratedan
az 83% reporting
Biden up 154k
Kelly up 197k
Tiperneni still up by 12k in AZ CD6
NotMax
Better in the original Yiddish: fressing.
;)
sdhays
@Calouste: So, Californians have endorsed that idea or have rejected it? I really don’t know what the proposition says.
JWR
@Martin: FFS, Prop 22 is going to pass.
Watching local news for CA election results, and it looks like it’s gonna be hit and miss for this years propositions. One bit of good news is that Harley Rouda looks good, balanced against f*cking Daryl Issa in a really tight race.
guachi
@Eolirin: Now we are left with having to get Collins and Perdue below 50%. Gideon winning using ranked choice voting and Ossoff winning a runoff. And add that to a Warnock win in a runoff.
It’s not very likely at this point.
EDIT: I forgot that NC hasn’t been called yet.
guachi
@Martin: That’s crazy. It’s so obviously terrible.
Felanius Kootea
@sdhays: Classifies uber drivers/gig workers as contractors, not employees, so they don’t qualify for health benefits, etc. I was surprised to see mothers against drunk driving come out for 22. Swayed some people.
Yarrow
@Martin: People want their Uber.
sdhays
@Felanius Kootea: Oh, that’s terrible. :-(
RobertDSC-Mac Mini
My House Rep, Nanette Barragan, won re-election. I like her and was happy to vote for her again.
Tony Jay
Morning everyone.
I gave up watching at about 2am GMT and just had the worst night’s sleep of my life. Sweats, racing heartbeat, the works. I woke up so many times I felt like the hall monitor at a Bishop and Choirboy sleepover.
It’s this tight? Well, we were warned nothing would be decided by the time the talking head crowed. I’d advise you all to grab some rest while this side of the Atlantic shuffles around in its slippers.
I need coffee. Much coffee.
NotMax
Fer Pete’s sake, MSNBC hasn’t called Arizona yet. Did the carrier pigeon die?
JWR
@sdhays:
“Prop. 22 would classify app-based drivers (like those for Uber and Lyft) as independent contractors instead of employees. A “yes” vote will allow companies to classify their drivers as contractors. A “no” vote will make companies hire drivers as employees.”
Results:
Yes – 57.9%
No – 42.1%
Via SfGate
guachi
@NotMax: I don’t think it’s obviously a lost cause for Trump at this point. He needs to win 20-25% of the outstanding vote and from what I read he’ll get close, but probably not close enough.
Felanius Kootea
Xochitl Torres Small lost in New Mexico per NYT :(.
piratedan
there’s supposedly 16% of the votes to be counted and Biden has a nearly 160K vote lead, I’m kind of wondering wtf they think is outstanding for Trump myself. Trump looks like he would have to win 75-80% of the remaining votes it seems and based on what’s left…. I’m dubious
guachi
@Felanius Kootea: Sigh. That’s too bad. She was a good Congresswomen.
PJ
@Felanius Kootea: Fuck
sdhays
@piratedan: I assume you are looking at Arizona?
NotMax
Oy vey. Dolt 45 to speak any time now. At 2-something in the morning.
PsiFighter37
We really failed downballot this time around. No pickups in TX, losing seats that I thought were gimmes like MO-02 and TX-23…ugh. Unless we suddenly figure out how to do GOTV in a pandemic better, we are looking at Moscow Mitch controlling the Senate again no matter what.That is fucking ridiculous.
Mary G
@sdhays:
@Geoduck:
Bad, California. The legislature passed a law that people like Uber and Lyft drivers cannot be considered contractors/gig workers, but must get benefits & Social Security like regular employees do. Uber put up Prop. 22 to exempt the “app-based entrepreneurs” who make maybe minimum wage and spent a fuckton of money to make commercials with minority actors saying they would have a sad if it didn’t pass, because they love their jobs as is.
JWR
Oh joy of joys. Trump speaking now.
piratedan
@sdhays: yup, Biden up by 155k with 84% in
guachi
@PsiFighter37: Maybe 2018 was a high water mark for what Democrats can get. It makes no sense to me, really. But people pulled the lever for Republicans for some reason or another.
cokane
Just coming here to reassure worried folks that things look very good for Biden.
I will have to concede that Senate control does not look great (it’s not out of the question however). But it will almost for sure hinge on Georgia runoffs.
Biden ran up better margins than Clinton in a number of key areas — Georgia, Omaha, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Texas, etc. The race is only unknown because Republican legislatures suck shit in WI, MI and PA. Biden will come out on top there.
With the lone exception of Florida and a few other sub-state level areas, Trump has not improved on his 2016 margins. And Trump could not afford to lose an iota of his 2016 margin. It’s not the victory we wanted, but it’s the first step in a long process imo.
NotMax
“We won Texas by 700,000 votes and they don’t even include it in the calculations.”
WTF?
sdhays
@JWR: “Lie, lie, lie, bullshit, lie, threat, whine, lie, whine, threat, poop on podium”
I think that probably covers it and I didn’t even have to watch.
Tony Jay
@NotMax:
For an elderly man with a tiny toad in his pants he still manages to be an enormous bellend 24/7.
Quinerly
@sdhays: it’s pretty horrible. I feel physically ill.
Captain C
He’s such a con man.
Darkrose
@Mary G: Fuck. That really pisses me off, since it’s overturning a bill passed by the Lege. Why do we even bother to elect representatives when corporations can just pay for the laws they want passed?
sdhays
@NotMax: It would count, Donnie, if we did away with the Electoral College.
Just something to think about.
Keith P.
@Quinerly: Yeah, apparently the vote tabulation is a giant fraud because Trump was so far ahead, and then “they stopped”. Now he’s claiming that he *did* win. Says he’s going to SCOTUS to demand that vote counting stop (similar to Bush-Gore, but that was a recount, not an initial count)
Captain C
Fucker just claimed he’s going straight to the Supreme Court and demand that they stop the counting.
JWR
@Mary G:
The Yes on 22 ads were certainly full of BS. In fact, I would guess that CA voters got most of their information from TV ads. :(
And CA Prop 15 (which would fix some of what’s wrong with 1978’s Prop 13) is currently losing 51 to 49. :(
Quinerly
He’s declaring victory.
JoyceH
Am I a bad person for wanting everyone in that room to get COVID and die?
PsiFighter37
@guachi: What it means is that the GOP has discovered the Fountain of Youth when it comes to electoral success.- nominate a white man who is the biggest possible dick around, and all the crackers with no education will vote for him, and Latino and Black men will be all over him as well.
Hellbastard
Complete scumbag. Going straight to Scotus to stop the count.
PsiFighter37
Looks like Joe Cunningham lost his seat in SC-01 – fun while it lasted. We also lost Kendra Horn, Xochitl Torres Small as well.
Disaster. We have been an abject failure on downballot races for such a long time now. We need a Howard Dean type to rebuilding grassroots infrastructure.
PsiFighter37
Bullock lost. Fuck white people.
Kristine
@JoyceH: Is Mitch there? That would kill two birds with one stone.
guachi
@PsiFighter37: Were there any Democratic pickups this cycle? Or is it all losses so far?
Quinerly
@JoyceH: if you are, I am too. My first thought when I saw the room.
piratedan
az 91% reporting
biden by 148K
Kelly by 198k
no idea on why AZ hasn’t been called
now 97% reporting
Biden by 130k
Kelly by 178k
Tiperneni up in az cd 6 by 10k
hueyplong
@guachi: CO and AZ are pickups, but lost AL
mrmoshpotato
@Tony Jay: Yup. Dump is even a dick when sleeping.
Sebastian
@PsiFighter37:
Only works if combined with voter suppression and foreign influence. A lot is going to change.
Calouste
@guachi: Colorado Senate is a pickup. Not sure about house seats. Fox predicted earlier that the Dems would pick up 5 seats, but it’s unclear where they come from.
Sebastian
This was exhausting but after hours of sheer terror I feel better. Off to bed. Tomorrow we take the trash out.
JWR
@sdhays: I think a big “tell” was that the No on 22 side, in the few ads they could afford, very clearly had a chyron that said, “Not A Paid Actor”, or some such, vs the millions spent showing happy actors pleading for their cherished flexible hours.
guachi
@hueyplong: Sorry, I mean were there any pickups in the House. I think there were some gimmes in NC.
Quinerly
2 million ballots in PA not counted yet. And Trump is claiming he won PA.
mrmoshpotato
@Quinerly: NBC News has Biden up by 7 EC votes. Huh?
“Taco Supreme! Taco Supreme! Some of Joe’s EC votes are total losers! SAD!“
hueyplong
@Quinerly: Is PA is part of that USPS stuff with Judge Sullivan? If so, it’s more than 2 million and they’re for Biden.
montanareddog
Trump announces that he is going ahead with his coup attempt, bullshitting about massive fraud. I think that whichever way this goes in the courts, there will be violence. He and his party are unconscionable.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@Captain C:
Biggest indication that Biden will win. You don’t stop the count unless you think you’ll lose.
PsiFighter37
@guachi: There are 2 seats in NC we had that were layups because of court-ordered redistributing. But Democrats have literally won ZERO other seats. We have already lost a lot of seats we picked up in 2018. Donald Trump just seems to be some fucked up pied piper for stupid white people to come out and vote.
cain
@hueyplong:
I believe that was Florida.
mrmoshpotato
@JoyceH:
No.
Quinerly
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: technically he said he wanted them to keep counting in AZ but stop counting pretty much everywhere else.
Felanius Kootea
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Would the supreme court really stop the original vote count (not a recount like Florida)?
ETA:
@Quinerly: OK. An even more incoherent position than I’d thought. He wants the count to continue where he thinks he can eke out a win but to stop where he knows he’ll lose.
hueyplong
@mrmoshpotato: No comment on whether it makes one a bad person, but I had thoughts looking at them that I probably shouldn’t share.
guachi
@PsiFighter37: Dems were at 233 seats after losing a seat in CA and the guy in NJ switching parties. That meant they could lose 15 seats. Gain 2 in NC and that’s 17 that can be lost.
I hope the losses are less than 10 if that’s the way it comes out.
patrick II
@JoyceH:
Only if you had said “slowly”.
cain
@Felanius Kootea:
The SCOTUS can’t tell a state how to do its elections can it? I thought that was clearly a state jurisdiction – if the SCOTUS thinks they can interfere that way – that means the fed can just about do that with anything else, right?
Bruce K
Hell of a thing to wake up to in Greece. My stomach’s doing flip-flops. Doesn’t help that the country may be facing another lockdown.
mrmoshpotato
@hueyplong: Whisper them into a potato sack. I’ll hear.
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
Spare the camera and sound people.
hueyplong
@mrmoshpotato: Kind of an Inglorious Basterds-type scene.
Quinerly
@Felanius Kootea: yep. And the unmasked audience in the Trump/Pence bannered East Room of the White House cheered and clapped
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@PsiFighter37: in 2018, Dems won 20 seats in districts Dump won. we weren’t going to keep all those red seats. Same thing happened in 1976. They won the presidency, but gave back some red districts they picked up in the 1974 rout.
PsiFighter37
@guachi: So far it is; we are lucky because we were supposedly playing far more offense than defense. Right now, we have lost Cunningham, Finkenauer in Iowa, one in NM, OK, and NY, and possibly more. I don’t think we lose House majority given cushion, but this is a disastrous result. It shows that right-wing racists will show up to vote, no matter what, and that our voters are far more high-touch and require engagement to make the flips. Worst of all, it means we blew our once-in-a-decade shot at fixing gerrymandering from 2010. No fixing of the lines in MN, NC, MI, TX, and many other states. Just terrible.
TEL
@cokane: Completely agree with you on this. After 2016, I knew this wasn’t going to be easy.
PsiFighter37
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: We did a much better job from 2006 to 2008. I think we lost 2 seats – Nancy Boyda in KS and Don Cazayeux in LA. Otherwise, we built upon our gains.
Disaster downballot. Sure, Joe may / is likely to pull it out…but good God. No offense to everyone’s favorite, but PBO and Tom Perez fucked us hard on getting our shit straightened out downballot over the past 12 years. 2018 is looking more fluky.
NotMax
@Quinerly
Yet when he stepped into the room there was a quick blink-and-you-miss-it shot which clearly showed masked aides lurking in the background in the room he came from.
guachi
@PsiFighter37: Yeah. That sucks. There are a lot of terrible people in America. That’s all I can figure. Millions of Americans truly believed Biden was a pedophile with dementia.
I don’t hate Trump. I hate many of my fellow Americans. And it’s sad to say that.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: That was implied. No innocent parties. The rest…
AxelFoley
@PsiFighter37:
Fuck you for this bullshit.
lgerard
Jesus, what an asshole
Quinerly
@NotMax: Lawrence O’Donnell is saying Trump was drugged tonight. Didn’t read speech in teleprompter. Everything ad libbed.
guachi
While I wasn’t looking AP called AZ for Biden.
The Dangerman
Just got in and have mostly read nothing and watched less. Seems to me this is going to the Courts where lawyers will get rich and the losing side is gonna be monster pissed.
This sucks. I wanted Trump to be a clear loser tonight and he has a chance of pulling this out. Fuck.
Talk me down. Thanks in advance.
NotMax
Well, so far Hunter Biden has received zero votes.
// :)
Felanius Kootea
So NYT is saying that NC can’t be called for Tillis yet. Cunningham could still win the Senate seat.
Timurid
Arizona goes to Biden. That’s as much as we’ll know until tomorrow.
Bruce K
i’m physically isolated from everyone i know and love and care about and my hands are shaking and won’t stop and i think i’m having an anxiety attack here
NotMax
@Quinerly
O’Donnell did a quite cogent instant parsing.
And it ain’t easy to parse bullsh*t.
guachi
@The Dangerman: Well, AP called AZ for Biden. That’s one flip. Lots of votes in the Atlanta area mean Biden is a narrow favorite to win GA. NC isn’t completely lost but it’s uphill. Biden wins NE2 so if he gets 2 of MI/WI/PA he wins the election.
The downside is the Democrats lost a few seats in the House and likely won’t take the Senate.
Cacti
AP finally calls AZ for Biden.
piratedan
and in a nutshell, here is the problem with the American electorate, it appears that roughly 45% of us don’t really want to know what the problems are, much less how to solve them; they just want to ensure that once women are pregnant that they lose control over their bodies and that dudes have the ability to shoot guns and have someone below them on the perceived social ladder.
that’s it, everything else is pretty much a non-starter for them.
hueyplong
Nevada close but Washoe County (Reno) has come through. Jon Ralston (NV elections guru) will probably call it for Biden if the next drop from Clark County (Las Vegas) is what he thinks it will be.
JWR
@Cacti: PBS just announced that as well! Eggcellent!
?BillinGlendaleCA
If the USSC decides to stop counting votes, this country will be a much smaller and poorer country. My state’s flag is ready, it’s says “California Republic” on it.
PsiFighter37
@Felanius Kootea: Cunningham is going to lose. Fucker couldn’t keep his dick in his (virtual or otherwise) pants and is running behind Biden. It’s the opposite of what virtually every poll said, which was that he was running ahead of Biden. Fuck him for being a moron and losing an easily winnable race. There are plenty of free porn sites he could have visited if he needed to get some interim satisfaction.
PF37 +6 and SUPER FUCKING ANGRY at 3 FUCKING O’CLOCK IN THE MORNING ON A WEDNESDAY
NotMax
@Bruce K
The sun will still come up. The birds will still sing.
Other than that we’ll know what we know when we know it. Anxiety will not accelerate nor retard that a whit.
The Moar You Know
@AxelFoley: He’s not wrong. They dismantled Dean’s 50 state project, and things would be looking a lot different tonight if that had not happened.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@guachi: We may have gained back CA-25(Katie Hill’s old seat).
Felanius Kootea
@PsiFighter37: Well he hasn’t lost yet, so I’m not going to start crying about it.
Praying that Susan Collins stays at under 51% in Maine and ranked choice voting flips that seat to Gideon.
SenyorDave
@piratedan: they just want to ensure that once women are pregnant that they lose control over their bodies
I marvel (in a tragic sense) that the Republicans can get any women to vote for them. I’m male and consider myself to be a strong feminist, but if I were a woman I would be a pretty radical feminist, as in way out there. I can’t imagine why so many women are willing to let a bunch of 70 year old white men dictate what they can do with their bodies.
piratedan
seeing calls for Kelly now in AZ Senate…. looks like we flip AZ CD6, Tiperneni up by 10k at last check on the state website…
guachi
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Cool. CA takes forever to count votes so I haven’t even looked at results from there yet for any races.
cain
@The Moar You Know:
Why do we keep making this mistake ? It has worked for Obama before. I don’t get it ..
JWR
David Brooks(!) just said what the Big 3 either can’t, or won’t, say, which is that the majority of remaining ballots are mail-in, which seem largely to favor Biden.
guachi
AP called Maine for Biden.
Quinerly
@NotMax: I had taken my contact lens out so really couldn’t see Trump.. His mannerisms, eyes, demeanor. Didn’t catch the teleprompter stuff so only can rely on you and LOD. MSNBC folks obviously shaken by the words even though we were expecting him to declare victory. Plouffe’s voice shaking.
Tony Jay
@Bruce K:
When I went through an anxiety period some years back the very best advice I recieved was, basically, let it happen, knowing that it doesn’t last forever and you’ll be fine soon enough. Just remembering that it’s a finite event, not a condition, helped me a lot.
Ogliberal
@hueyplong: He just tweeted that there would be anything more from Clark until 2AM, his time (Mountain?), so have to wait a bit more.
Felanius Kootea
@The Moar You Know: Really? People of color in the Democratic Party need to fix racism through a 50 state strategy. A Southern one maybe? Got it. Good luck with that.
JWR
@?BillinGlendaleCA: @guachi: We may have gained back CA-25(Katie Hill’s old seat).
Yes! That Mike “I am patriot veteran” Garcia is a real tool of the defense industry.
ballerat
@guachi: Beg your pardon but who the fuck are you?
Election comes and there’s suddenly a few new nyms here. And you are all over every thread.
It’s not that I agree or disagree with what you’ve been peddling. It’s that you’ve shown up here as a peddler.
JWR
AP, via PBS, calls Maine for Biden!
PsiFighter37
@Felanius Kootea: It’s under 50%. More of the vote to count, so no response yet. That said, the clear takeaways for pollsters are a) assume ignorant white hicks will vote for Republicans no matter what, and b) don’t assume there is some magical ‘wave’ when there isn’t, and c) New York City con man whom everyone in said city hates to their core has a magical hold on the rest of the Nimitz crackers.
Fuck. All. Of This. Would very much like to look up the link to immigrating to New Zealand right now.
guachi
@ballerat: I’ve been reading BJ for probably 15 years. Who are you?
Quinerly
The polling was fucked up again.
hueyplong
@Ogliberal: Thanks. They are Pacific Time (Reno is west of LA).
Sab
@ballerat: guachi has been here for years and years.
West of the Rockies
@Bruce K:
That sucks. Maybe step outside, look at the stars. Take a slow, deep breath. Exhale through your nose. Do that half a dozen times. Find a place to sit and slowly connect with your body, bit by bit. Toes, soles, feet… Ankles, shins, calves… Work through to your head.
You’re among friends. We’ll get through this. We will.
JWR
@guachi: I, speaking as an infrequent commenter since at least 2012, but a constant reader of threads, you’ve been here like, forever, right?
edited for clarity.
Citizen Alan
@SenyorDave: The problems is that a sizeable percentage of women in this country benefit from the Patriarchy in tangible ways. Do you really think Amy Coathanger Barrett would be on the Supreme Court if she weren’t utterly committed to opposing feminism? IIRC, there are more named female antagonists directly harming Offred in The Handmaid’s Tale than there are male antagonists.
Kattails
@PsiFighter37: That was my thought. How much money do you think would be needed?
guachi
Large chunk of votes in WI for Biden cutting Trump’s lead from 120,000 to 92,000.
Another drop of votes in GA after a long gap. Not quite as awesome as the last one but Trump’s lead cut from 118,000 to 103,000. AP says 94% reporting so far.
Election expert says 2020 was highest turnout in 120 years.
Ogliberal
@PsiFighter37: I know plenty of people who live not very far from NYC and who definitely know about Trump, plenty, in fact. And they love him. NYC media made him out to be something he wasn’t or isn’t for many years. I mean, of course he’s going to lose NY, CT and NJ by a ton but they are out there. And in the part of NE PA where we have our vacation property there are a number of NY (mostly Long Island) and NJ transplants….and they adore him.
Cermet
Good morning BJ’ers. Expecting a less tight race but it is what it is. Pennsylvania looks far better than I thought – nether Philly or Alleghany County (Pittsburgh area) have been counted.
Georgia is looking far better since most of Atlanta area hasn’t been tallied so that might tip the scale there. Finally, both Wisconsin and Michigan are missing most of their vote by mail results. Yes, the orange fart cloud is slightly ahead in all these places but the major dem votes are still not counted. So, looking good.
Felanius Kootea
That the highest turnout election in 120 years in the middle of a pandemic will produce a Biden win but not an overwhelming one shows how polarized the electorate is. There is something seriously wrong when millions and millions of people wholeheartedly support a proto-fascist candidate and his party. I’m not sure what can fix it.
ballerat
@guachi: My god. We are measuring out democracy by coffee spoons.
Ogliberal
@Citizen Alan: I thought Barrett got into that Catholic cult when she went away to college or maybe via her husband. But she was raised in it – I read recently that her father is a long time member/believer.
Fun fact – my wife went to high school with her in New Orleans…same class. Catholic HS, of course. She didn’t really recall her. I found it out by chance and told her. When she heard her voice during the hearings it started to ring a bell.
It was a decent sized all-girls school but not huge. I would think that by the time you’re in high school, a future SCOTUS would have stood out, maybe even in a remarkable way. Nope…my wife barely remembered her.
ballerat
@Felanius Kootea: No one can fix that.
This is the start-over/re-evaluate point of a relationship.
Quinerly
@Felanius Kootea: I’m sick to my stomach.
James E Powell
@Quinerly:
I mentioned that in a thread below. No matter what the outcome, they were way off in Florida for the third straight time. They had Biden way ahead with women and even with men. That is not what we are seeing at all.
Have to wait for it all to come in to see what happened, but the grief and excuses will be epic. They need to change how they do things. They are not a helpful guide for anything.
guachi
@Felanius Kootea: Neither am I. The Republicans have no real reason to change anything they do after this election. Just pick a different demagogue in 2024.
Sab
@Ogliberal: That is really interesting (in a horrible way.)
Quinerly
@James E Powell: I’m not prone to conspiracy theories, et al but I’m beginning to wonder about tampering. Something just seems terribly off. If this is what it is, need to do away with the polling profession.
ballerat
@James E Powell: First, who’s they?
Second, why did you expect them to be truthful?
Ogliberal
@Felanius Kootea: Something bad – like really bad – happening to them….only then will they say, “wait, maybe I was wrong” And something they can’t deny is caused by him. COVID wasn’t big enough – after all, it’s just the flu. They basically want him to be king and hand it all down to Ivanka or Don Jr when he dies. And they want him to hurt the people they hate. What they don’t realize is malignant, paranoid narcissists who become authoritarians will eventually come for you, no matter how much you think they love you now. Seriously, you make him president for life do you think he’s going to let you keep you guns. He will come for them. And he might come for you. But they can’t even fathom that at this point because they think he is god’s gift and the only man who can save our country.
Quinerly
@ballerat: polling outfits
Ogliberal
@Sab: I’m not even supposed to mention it but, hey, pretty much anonymous here.
ballerat
@Tony Jay: Thank you.
PsiFighter37
@Cermet: Not taking anything for granted, but I expect we should have a clearer picture of things by this (Wednesday) evening, or the day after.
NC is a big disappointment. We failed there big time/. State offices – Cooper won, and we barely hung onto State AG (by 10k votes as of now) and SoS. We lost the rest. It makes me think that a Virginia-type change for these other Southern states is going to take time….we are not proving consistency in winning the statewide races elsewhere.
Subsole
@Sab: And now a song by the Police is running thru my head…
Ogliberal
Checking in periodically on Ralston. Crossing fingers really hard on that one. Closer than I expected. Waiting on 80K votes from Clark County. Hillary won pretty easily in that county in 2016.
ETA: I talking about Nevada.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
Nerds at Grey Lady say the numbers favor Biden in Georgia.
PsiFighter37
@Ogliberal: Ralston said Dems would win, and he reiterated that, especially after Washoe’s votes came in at an even bigger margin than Clinton had in 2016.
Don’t sweat it. For whatever reason, NV/AZ Latinos seem to have their shit together better than TX/FL Latinos.
Terri in MI
I knew a sister on the ballot for the VP slot, would be a bridge too far for a lot of fu**king people. There, I said it.
JWR
@PsiFighter37: Yeah. Election ‘expert’ on CBS just noted that there are over 5 million votes in WI, MI and GA left to be counted, and that those votes are from Biden-favored areas, so don’t expect results until sometime in the next 24 hours.
Mel
@Bruce K: Hang in there. Is there someone that you can call, or text or zoom with right now? If not, that’s okay, you stay here with us and stay connected. Sit down, take slow deep breaths, and don’t try to move around until the shakiness passes.
guachi
I’m sorry if I upset anyone with my posts today. I don’t have anyone else to talk elections with and I like the virtual BJ community.
Take care everyone and be well.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
Not easy to defeat a first term president. In past 100 years it only happened once in 2 way race (1932) and twice in 3 way races (1980 and 1992).
It requires people acknowledging they made a mistake in their prior vote, and people hate admitting (even it it’s just to themselves) that they made a mistake.
Subsole
@guachi: You too.
montanareddog
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Just heard that GA has suspended mail-in ballot counting until the morning. The paranoiac in me fears this is an attempt by the Republican admin in GA to ratfuck by delaying counting until the Trump’s Supreme Court gambit throws out uncounted votes. Anybody know if it was always planned not to count overnight in GA?
Quinerly
@guachi: a little over the top at times. Really appreciate this post from you, though. Take care. Get some rest.
Ogliberal
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Not much of a difference but I think it’s down to 2.2 now will still votes to count from blue counties
Sab
Looking at Watergirl’s pet pics lists. We have a lot of lurkers with pets.
montanareddog
@guachi: If it’s any comfort, you did not upset me. We are all understandably on edge, and we know you are commenting in good faith.
Sab
@guachi: You too.
Ogliberal
@PsiFighter37: Yeah, Washoe numbers looked good but dipped a bit for Biden after they added some more. He’s still ahead there by more than Clinton finished. His recent tweets seem to have a bit of a hedge…but can’t see Clark doing it for Trump.
PsiFighter37
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: I would be more than willing to admit I fucked something / anything up if it meant getting rid of the orange fartcloud polluting eeryone’s mental state.
Ogliberal
@PsiFighter37: Yeah, with so many transplants – generally young – from not crazy red places, I thought NC would have been there already and GA making it there this year. (that could still happen!)
sanjeevs
@Quinerly: I wonder about tampering too.
I don’t see how the polling is so off- especially when it was so stable and there was no late breaking news.
And whilst polling might have got the weightings wrong, how could they all have got it wrong? How could the polling seem to match with ‘naive’ metrics like Presidential satisfaction ratings.
The other possibility is that social media onslaughts in the last couple of days of a campaign have often been effective (Poland recently, Brexit etc) but they are usually worth a couple of points, not high single digits.
As for tampering, for the GOP and Putin, the stakes could not have been higher. No question they looked at whatever they could do
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@PsiFighter37: We’ve made improvements. Gore and Kerry both lost NC by 13 points. But we’ve plateaued at 48/49 percent. This is the state that elected Jesse Helms five times, it was always going to be hard.
Subsole
Ok. I am for real gonna try to sleep.
Y’all stay safe. We’ll see where we stand in the morning.
Ogliberal
@montanareddog: This whole “stop counting votes that were already cast and before or on election day” thing baffles me. Yeah, I know with Barrett the SCOTUS could do anything. But what’s the logical argument and how could SCOTUS justify buying that argument. These are ballots of people voted – there is no way they should not be counted. Almost no state finishes the official count on election day. Are they going to argue that because it’s close and I’m currently in the lead I win because the ballots remaining won’t matter?
Ogliberal
@montanareddog: Oh, and you can bet that if Biden had leads in these states Trump would be arguing that they should be counting and recounting until something changes in his favor. (and, actually, I’d argue that should happed as long as the recount criteria in the state is followed)
Cermet
OK; getting worried – PA isn’t looking as good as when I first posted – unless there are major gains soon, does not look like Biden will manage to pull that one out. MI is also not getting tighter as I expected as the votes get tallied. Well, again, it is what it is and one endures the results. Wasn’t money or turn out by Dems.
lafcolleen
Where are the outstanding numbers of ballots coming from? above people said “millions” of mail ins. part of the problem is inconsistent terminology, I guess. What is absentee vs. early vs. mail in? very confusing and the news reports I am following aren’t clarifying what is included.
I saw 2 million referenced for PA but not a source.
For WI, news articles talk about doing 169k at a central processing site for Milwaukee County. but the same article was not talking about other outstanding votes.
I can’t find a reliable source for how many/where outstanding ballots for PA, WI, and MI.
Also unclear what is outstanding for NC and I don’t understand what is outstanding in GA.
Mai Naem mobile
I cannot fucking believe that so many of my fellow countrymen voted for this racist garbage incompetent traitorous POS. And the idiot Cuban and Venezuelan Americans who got sucked in by the socialist label but have no problem with Orange Dbag giving free money to the farmers he likes. Jeezus how stupid do you have to be.
Well, AZ appears to have delivered for a change. Biden, Mark Kelly, Rep Hiral Tiperneni and a possible flip in either or both state chambers. I only remember the Dems being even in one chamber for one session years ago.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
Even Fox knows he’s got loser stink all over him.
The Moar You Know
@Quinerly: I mentioned this last thread; I majored in what was essentially polling/survey science in college. The problem is simple: The polling companies, all of them, are using far too small a sample size for their projections. You can compensate for that to some extent with modeling, which you could call “a set of reasonable assumptions”. Well. Things have changed and those assumptions are not reasonable anymore. So these companies are going to have to go back to using far larger sample bases until they can get a handle on what is changed, and make a new set of baseline assumptions.
Problem is, getting anyone to sit through a poll these days is damn near impossible. And you don’t want volunteers, they are not reliable and always have an agenda.
There may not be a solution that does us common folk any good.
Geoduck
@Mai Naem mobile: Maybe now AZ can join the Pacific States of America, along with WA, OR, CA and NV. And NM?
Eljai
@Bruce K: Sometimes when I get anxious I focus on the present. I think, right here, right now, I’m breathing in and out, I have shelter, I’m okay in this moment. I’ll breathe along with you.
It’s unnerving to see so many fellow citizens fall for the odious orange one. But there are millions of us who have not and we still matter and we can still make a difference.
CaseyL
@Quinerly: @sanjeevs:
I don’t trust the numbers at all. I still think votes were tampered with back in ’16 (though it would have been easier then, just give Clinton votes to Stein). If they got away with it then they’ve only been able to improve their techniques since.
I don’t believe the polls could be that far off, not in state after state. I don’t believe we had 120% voter turnout, with a 30% gain in young voters, and still have the GOP win.
No way. No how.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@montanareddog: Don’t know their particular situation, but people are usually hired to work an 8 hour overnight shift. Since Georgia polls close at 7PM , I would think their work shift ends around 4AM. They could have completed most of the count, but in Atlanta, the pipes broke at the location where they tabulate the votes.
Mai Naem mobile
@Geoduck: don’t forget Colorado! I honestly think Arizona is just maturing as a state. Some of it has to do with California and East coast transplants for sure but I think old timer Arizonans have begun to realize you need good schools and services to attract good jobs and to go beyond having the weather to attract businesses to move here. I am depressed about so much of the country voting for Orange Dbag but I am proud of my state. Tonight anyway.
Mary G
@ballerat: I like pie. I never used to, but I pied everyone that blamed BRG for not retiring under Obama before her body was even cold, and it’s been good for my blood pressure.
Elizabelle
Good early morning, jackals. Went to bed early last night; waking up to find it’s a way tighter race than anticipated.
Mostly thinking that Biden will win, but that we may see more of a brain drain as aspiring immigrants decide the United States is still too polarized to be a safe country to build a new life.
Going to remain optimistic, although the Senate race results surprise me. And expanding the Supreme Court may be a heavier lift. Anyway, count on.
Bruce K
Thanks for the encouraging words, gang. Still very much on edge here. Several problems: most of the people I’d lean on for support are seven time zones behind me, and those that are here – my immediate family are essentially refugees on a Greek island right now – have their own massive anxieties and aren’t really in a position to calm me down. Greece is staring down a COVID lockdown. My sweetheart’s in Maryland, probably fast asleep, and stressed out probably just as much.
And I still can’t believe that with a choice between a career politician and an evil monster, the election’s still too close to call.
Elizabelle
@Bruce K: Hang in there, Bruce K. This one is more of a nail-biter than we’d like, but we must prevail.
New thread up; Betty Cracker mentioned the Orange One’s “victory” speech but no video or photo up, mercifully.
opiejeanne
@guachi: You didn’t upset me. Be well.