To their credit, the news organizations aren’t having it. Here’s The Post:
With millions of votes yet to be counted, President Trump falsely asserted election fraud, pledged to mount a legal challenge to official state results and made a premature claim of victory in a bitterly contested race that may take days to resolve. In remarks at the White House early Wednesday, Trump claimed that he’d won several states that are still counting ballots, including Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
His Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, insisted earlier that “we believe we’re on track to win this election” and cited Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, where votes were still being tallied. “It ain’t over till every vote is counted,” Biden said.
But I’m not gonna lie — this looks bad. Biden is projected to pick up Arizona, and it’s still possible he can squeak out a win in the Midwest. But The Post has Trump narrowly ahead in Wisconsin (83% counted) and pretty far ahead in Pennsylvania (74% counted) and Michigan (72% counted). The polls were off by a mile.
Open thread.
ETA: Ben Wikler says Biden will win Wisconsin (and he would know), so now it all depends on Biden picking up either Michigan or Pennsylvania for the win.
Reader Interactions
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Sab
Glad I am newly retired so I can stay home for the next few years.
JWR
QFT!
Betty Cracker
This is good news:
If Biden picks up WI and wins either MI or PA, that will put him over the top.
PsiFighter37
Biden is ‘only’ winning Philly 73-25 with less than half the vote in. For reference, Democratic candidates get north of 80% easily here. Lots of votes to count not only there, but in the surrounding burbs.
Ogliberal
The polls do look like they did pretty well with Arizona – the quality ones there underestimated Biden a bit – at least based on the current talent – but they pretty much all had him ahead by low single digits.
The Midwest plus honorary Midwest member PA – yeah, not looking good so far.
Jerzy Russian
Trump would not go to the Supreme Court unless he (or his campaign staff) knew there were going to lose those key states. On the other hand, he is an asshole, so who knows?
Betty Cracker
@PsiFighter37: Good to know.
@Jerzy Russian: Had a similar thought. I didn’t hear the speech, but accounts I read of it described it as whiny and belligerent.
Baud
@PsiFighter37: Does that mean you expect Biden to improve in Philly or that he’s under performing there?
Thad
Stop the panic. This is going how the number wonks always said it would. The day-of count will favor Trump… it will shift toward Biden as the absentee votes get counted. Half of Philadelphia is still out, and it is going HARD toward Biden. PA will be counting till Friday probably. Half of Milwaukee still out, and that will drop another 100K advantage in the Biden column on its own.
Betty Cracker
More potential good news on the remaining votes to count front:
If Biden wins PA, MI and WI, that would make the election a lot harder for Trump to steal.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
On Michigan:
On Georgia:
538 and NYT both have Biden slight favorite to win Georgia based on outstanding vote.
On PA:
Ogliberal
@Betty Cracker: Yeah, if he gets WI and MI that’s just 270 (I think) and that seems close enough for at least five of the lunatics on SCOTUS to do something we won’t like.
JoyceH
Isn’t it too soon to say the polls were off by a mile? Seems to me that what we’re seeing is the promised red mirage. What’s still to come are the early and mail votes which should heavily favor Dems. Trump has been slurring on mail votes and talking up vote in person on Election Day, so mail would skew more Democratic than usual.
Jerzy Russian
@Betty Cracker: If Biden wins those three states, he is well over the needed 270.
CaseyL
Repeating my comment from the previous thread:
I don’t trust the numbers at all. I still think votes were tampered with back in ’16 (though it would have been easier then, just give Clinton votes to Stein). If they got away with it then they’ve only been able to improve their techniques since.
I don’t believe the polls could be that far off, not in state after state. I don’t believe we had 120% voter turnout, with a 30% gain in young voters, and still have the GOP win.
No way. No how.
Aziz, light!
The only way to get rid of the antidemocratic EC is to cleave the country in two. Bind the West Coast, New England, and a few Rocky Mountain states into a new nation, along with many blue cities. As these make most of the money, they will prevail in the long run and eventually will annex many parts of the red. We will have to airlift supplies into the blue cities, like West Berlin.
Unfortunately, Oregon and Washington will have to cede two thirds of their territory to Idaho.
Sloane Ranger
What is it about these rural, sparsely populated red counties? How can Trump keep wringing out more and more votes from them when there are so few voters there?
Betty Cracker
@JoyceH: Maybe? I thought the polling averages had Biden up by pretty comfortable margins in MI and WI. Could be the absentees will close the gap.
Despite a slight edge in the polling average to Biden, Trump won FL by three points, which counts as a fucking landslide here. Lesson learned: the socialism smear works in Florida, even on someone like Biden. As far as FL is concerned, the Dems might as well have nominated AOC. It’s must mind-bogglingly stupid.
Eljai
@Thad: Yeah, I agree. No need to turn into chicken littles yet!
Ogliberal
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Winning back Erie would be pretty big – not enough, but big. I don’t think he’s winning back Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) where Obama won twice but Hillary lost in 2016. Surprised he’s trailing in Monroe County but not sure how many votes are outstanding. Obama won it pretty handily and Hillary eked out a win there in 2016. Lots of NYC transplants (and commuters – not crazy far from NYC) including and a decent % of blacks and Hispanics, at least relatively speaking for NE PA.
Aziz, light!
@CaseyL: Racist crackers turned out in large numbers both then and today. Welcome to America.
Cermet
PA, with so many votes counted is gonna be a tough one to win; possible but not as believable as WI and MI. Still, GA is in play and that means Biden wins if he gets WI and GA. But I am worried and until I see come real movement in MI, this is really not looking good.
JWR
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Yep. Heard just a bit ago that both Allegheny County + one other, were suspending their counts until later today, and that both counties will likely go large for Biden.
I remain optimistic, about the presidency, that is. As for the Senate… (And FSM knows, we so need the Senate!)
Betty Cracker
Katie Porter was reelected, so that’s good!
Ogliberal
@Betty Cracker: While we don’t know the outcome yet in NC, GA, and FL most of the polls in those states were close and most were probably within the MOE, even though a lot of the later polls in those states had Biden ahead. PA was always close – maybe a few outliers showing Biden up by high single digits. But it does seem like we were seeing a bit too many double-digit polls coming out of WI and MI. Not saying Biden won’t win but it’s going to be more in the 1-5% range if he does. So if that’s the case I’d say those polls were pretty off. (I think they nailed MN though, which is strange because kind of the same dynamic in all three of those states)
Baud
@Betty Cracker: That is good news.
Cermet
@Aziz, light!: You ignore most the mid-Atlantic? DE, MD, and VA? OK, maybe PA is gone (excluding Philly) but NJ and NY? They certainly aren’t New England.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Sloane Ranger: The polling was off because the extended voting meant the likely voter models were off. In other words the GOP had been screwing themselves for years because of their voter suppression.
Also, Trump isn’t a politician, he is a celebrity and a lot of people vote for him out of fandom.
CaseyL
@Aziz, light!: Yes: 40-45% of Americans are lost causes.
But I don’t believe that about this election. Something stinks.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
Biden wins it by 5, so it’s an 8 point shift.
JWR
CBS just had a little discussion about the state of the race, and they all seemed fairly confident that when ALL the votes are counted, Biden will pull this off.
Aziz, light!
@Cermet: No, you’re right. Include the eastern seaboard to Virginia. But all the new border crossings are going to be a major hassle.
Archon
Trump received more votes then any Republican in history.
johncarter1966
CaseyL,
I agree with you. Nate Silver is THE pro in this kind of forecast, He was dead on in in previous elections except for 2016. Called 2018 correctly. Now he’s this far off?
This turn out seems to indicate that EVERY republican voted and at least a quarter of the Democrats jumped ship…which is really, really hard to believe.
Something is rotten and it’s not in Denmark.
Aziz, light!
@johncarter1966: Many didn’t vote today because of Covid and/or because the pollsters told them it was in the bag.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
This is funny, the absentee vote breaking heavy against the guy who told his cult not to vote by mail.
clay
@Betty Cracker: Someone on MSNBC just said that Biden had vote parity with Hillary in Miami-Dade, but that Trump added 200,000 votes over his 2016 total in that county. That seems…. suspiciously odd to me.
Something similar happened with the Texas border counties: Biden’s vote total was similar to Hilary’s but Trump added a large number of votes.
Ogliberal
@johncarter1966: I think Dem voters – just enough in the right places – staying home in 2016 is why President Hillary Clinton is not running for her second term today against somebody who isn’t Trump.
Archon
@johncarter1966:
I don’t think it’s that hard to believe, Trump basically ran as the white mans candidate in a country that’s majority white.
The fact he’s the scum of the earth might have got just enough white women to vote for Biden for him to pull it out but I’m definitely not confused how this happened.
sanjeevs
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323921427897163777
Ogliberal
@clay: Note sure if it says but was a lot of that increase mostly Hispanics?
ETA – Trying to figure out if he turned out Dem-type voters who didn’t vote in 2016 or if he was somehow able to squeeze more white voters out of the right-leanding popuation. +200K in Miami-Dade seems crazy high.
Aziz, light!
@clay: Trump gave these people permission to be assholes. Now they’re basking in their liberation.
Cermet
Well, if WI is fairly certain and MI’s major outstanding votes are mostly Dem, yes, Biden wins – but that is exactly 270. Without GA things aren’t going to be finished. With just 270 this is not gonna be anything but a big fight that will go to the most inferior court of the land. We know what that means and that is not something I want to think about.
SectionH
@Betty Cracker: Yes, but Ammar is tied, with Issa – and that’s JUST AS IMPORTANT as a race that Katie was gonna win. FFS.
and breathing some aloha – Kai Kahele has made sure Tulsi ain’t getting any more microphones. He’s just amazing.
Yes tiny state, but the Gabbard creature was a stain, srsly.
Jerzy Russian
@sanjeevs: Good news. I wish the AP would change their map and remove the pink. Then maybe I can get to sleep.
ETA: they changed it to that light blue color.
Mary G
Whatever happens, we’ve gotta keep fighting and get that 50-state strategy back even if we have to do it ourselves through ActBlue. I don’t give to the party, the DNC, the DCCC, or any of them. Keep the young uns involved and it will eventually swing back. I believe that, but I am not at all sure that at just short of 65 I’ll live to see it.
Martin
Biden just took the lead in Wisconsin. About 20K votes up. Mail-in votes coming in.
Cacti
Wisconsin just shifted light blue on the AP map!!!!
Elizabelle
Bringing this comment forward. Had not seen this fresh thread. And, thank dog, have not seen any of Trump’s declaration of victory (and won’t), but applauding the WaPost for their headline with “Trump falsely asserts victory.” Count those votes. All of them.
Good early morning, jackals. Went to bed early last night; waking up to find it’s a way tighter race than anticipated.
Mostly thinking that Biden will win, but that we may see more of a brain drain as aspiring immigrants decide the United States is still too polarized to be a safe country to build a new life.
Going to remain optimistic, although the Senate race results surprise me. And expanding the Supreme Court may be a heavier lift. Anyway, count on.
Mary G
@clay: I think they got Latino men turned out with an undercover machismo campaign. We need some spies on the inside.
Betty Cracker
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
Elizabelle
@Martin: @Cacti:
Good to hear. On, Wisconsin!
The wonderful Cameron Webb did not win his Congressional race in Virginia’s 5th (Charlottesville and Lynchburg area), but I hope we see more of him. Proud to have remarkable candidates like Webb on Team Blue.
janesays
Georgia is offended that you are writing her off so quickly.
Especially when the FTFNYT needle thingy is still giving Joey B. a 64% chance of winning the Peach State.
Baud
@Betty Cracker: Just has to happen two more times in MI and PA.
Mai Naem mobile
@Archon: the population grows. He should be getting the largest ever number of GOP votes. As should Biden be getting the largest number of Dem votes.
I give up on Florida. I think you’re better off putting the money into NC, GA and Texas.
Anyhow, James is ahead in the Senate seat in Michigan. WTF. I almost don’t want the presidency without the Senate. Fucking Mitch McConnell is just going to obstruct.
Baud
@Mai Naem mobile: I was worried about that with how tight the presidential race is in Michigan.
ETA: Although if Biden is waiting for mail in votes in MI, hopefully that will help Peters too.
Martin
@clay: This was a big part of the thinking around the turnout modeling – that Trump generates VERY intense loyalty from his voters and 2016 Rs that didn’t like him may have gotten on board.
This is why electoral polling is so hard – if you don’t get the turnout model right, your results will be garbage. By all accounts, the ‘shy Trump voter’ theory looks likely to be correct – that he had more Republicans on board than pollsters realized.
Baud
If we get GA, give Stacey Abrams all the prizes.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@Cacti: can you post a link.
thanks ;)
Archon
@Mai Naem mobile:
We got once in a generation turnout percentages though.
Folks came out in droves for both Biden AND Trump.
NobodySpecial
Trump is such a brilliant casino owner, he thinks he can cheat at the table when everyone is watching him on thousands of different cameras. No wonder he went bankrupt running them.
Betty Cracker
@janesays: Flip, Georgia, flip! It’s just that the percentage counted is so much higher, so I figured MI or PA were more likely.
Baud
If Trump does pull it out, the popular vote/electoral college split will be through the roof, I assume.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
I have the lyrics to Boomtown Rats’s “Up All Night” rattling around my head in this delusion inducing hour.
SenyorDave
How could PA be this bad?????
Captain C
@Baud: Biden’s already up by around 2 million nationally. It’s past time to get rid of the electoral college.
Ogliberal
Darn! No call tonight (this morning?) from Ralston on Nevada. Too close to call. Biden up 2.1% (v. 2.9% Clinton) but still votes left out to count, just not certain where. I think a lot of the rural areas already reported so, if they did, that’s good.
Mousebumples
From 5 minutes ago.
Quinerly
@Sloane Ranger: and all these new voters/additional voters Trump has gotten in Florida.
Elizabelle
@Martin: A soft-spoken middle-aged white man (40s, I’d guess) told me this was his first vote ever today. I did not ask him who he voted for, and make no assumptions.
JoyceH
I can’t help but wonder how many votes are piled up in corners of various post offices.
janesays
@Betty Cracker: I’m just hopeful because of the NY Times needle, which seems to be pretty accurate so far.
Whatever outstanding votes are still out there, the wide consensus is that they are going to go very heavily for Biden.
WereBear
It’s also what would be done if you were planning to steal a result the polling was not predicted. Boom! Trump knows all… because he caused the result.
Quinerly
@Betty Cracker: which is great.
But I don’t understand how we lost ground in the House. Need to see a list but think Dems lost 5 seats. Does anyone know?
Cermet
Absoultly need either GA or MI (really both or else I’m worried about the inferior court); PA isn’t looking so good and I am just writing it off (if it turns, great – big win but not holding my breath.) Extremely happy WI is blue and drifting in the correct direction.
Elizabelle
@Mai Naem mobile:
Never say that. It will be a heavier lift, yes. Mitch is not immortal. 2022 awaits. Trump goes down, and he must, he must, I hope his house of cards comes down and more solid evidence of his criminality comes out.
Aziz, light!
@Captain C: Requires the votes of two thirds of both houses of Congress. Na ga ha pen.
Ogliberal
@Archon: Always like to see higher turnout. I just thought some 2016 Trump voters would have been turned off enough to stay home this year. Maybe they were worried he was some NYC lib in disguise in 2016 but now they see he’s a hateful jerk like they are?
SectionH
@Mary G: fuck it, ~2000 votes.If Ammar’s that close.
Ogliberal
@Quinerly: I thought Fox projected a gain of 5 seats earlier.
Elizabelle
@JoyceH:
That is the question. How much are we going to remember Louis DeJoy a decade from now?
@Betty Cracker: Yea, Katie Porter! Wonderful news.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@Quinerly: 2 years ago Dems won 20 Red seats. Giving some back was bound to happen.
Frances Perkins
Trump has never won anything fair and square in his life. Every thought and action is crooked. I don’t know how the Repubicans have rigged the election but at the moment I don’t believe the polls were wrong. Corporations use public opinion surveys all the time in the commercial sphere. They wouldn’t do this if they were worthless.
Mary G
Here’s a spot of good news, especially for Sister Golden Bear, if you’re still up:
Archon
Not sure how much longer we can be called a Democracy when who wins the popular vote is a forgone conclusion yet we are still on pins and needles to decide who gets power.
WereBear
@Mary G: That is good news, for everyone!
I went to bed at my (usual ridiculously early time) knowing the mail in vote would be mostly missing and that was crucial. We are in the Red Mirage.
But we shouldn’t believe it. It’s not true.
opiejeanne
@JoyceH: The Postmaster General defied the Federal judge who ordered him to seek out and deliver ALL of the ballots.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
Elizabelle
@WereBear: “Shy” Trump voter is one of those euphemisms, isn’t it? “Embarrassed to state” Trump voter is more like it.
And I like your “Red Mirage” comment. It’s true.
I was hoping we were not going to have to be so patient for results this year. Ah well.
debbie
I haven’t been up at this hour for years. I don’t know how you guys do it.
Sloane Ranger
God, I hate this! Why do the votes have to come in in dribs and drabs? It would be far less stressful if nothing was released until all votes had been counted, checked and formally confirmed. That way you definitely know the best or worst and avoid this emotional roller coaster.
SectionH
@Quinerly: We’re still trying to take seats in San Diego County as I type.
Don’t get me started about what my birth state (and yes I say “Missourah” if challenged, because I know how). And no, Democrats all over have so not given up.
Hey, NM went blue, well doh! But AZ did too. And that’s Huge. And I don’t think they’re going back.
Croaker
First breath. Second I don’t live innewfyckastan. It’s still America and in PA we voted by mail as allowed by Law. There are over 1,438,289 mail in ballots to be counted. 15% of precincts have reported any results.
Elizabelle
@SectionH: Excited about Arizona. Might have to spend some more time there. Beautiful state.
Tony Jay
@Sloane Ranger:
Say all that in any Infotainment programming meeting and every single person there will look at you like you just announced that your fillings are picking up messages from the Kingdom of Stilt-Wearing Cats.
Drama, baby, that’s how they sell advertising space!
Cermet
There can’t be 2 million outstanding votes in PA if 74% are already counted and the total is 5.2 million ( Biden down 0.6 million!); PA is over – Biden needs almost 100% of the remaining votes. That just isn’t possible.
JoyceH
And there’s a hearing on the issue today. I hope US Marshalls take DeJoy into custody; he can be released when his minions comply with the court order. And the votes bottlenecked in post offices must be counted!
Sideshow Bob
Over on 538, they’re saying that Biden is on the cusp of Michigan. Unless I’ve screwed up my math somewhere, I THINK that would be 270 would Georgia or Pennsylvania.
Cacti
Trumper Tim Alberta is reporting that fat boy is in deep trouble in Michigan.
His statewide lead is down to 70,000 now, with Wayne County reporting only 53% so far. Lots of mail in votes from Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Oakland County also just starting to be counted.
https://twitter.com/TimAlberta
Cermet
So, its up to either MI and/or GA; certainly doable but right now, not there … yet!
Cermet
@Cacti: Damn good news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and !
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@Cermet: 7,027,000 X 74% = 5,199,980 (or 5.2 million)
7,027,000 – 5,199,980 = 1,827,020
There is approximately 1,827,020 votes outstanding.
Tony Jay
Waiting for White Tang to demand “his” SC Judges stop the count right now or he’ll give their jobs to someone who understands loyalty.
Also, greasy gish-gallop rescue fetus on the BBC was allowed to get away with giggling, shouting and hooting over the black Democrat while she tried to explain how voting in a demicracy functions. BBC talking head said nada, not wanting to seem biased against misogynistic bullshitters. Understandable since she works with so many.
Cermet
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Damn, someone should teach me math – you are absoultly correct; still, looks unlikely but much better odds.
Cermet
@Sideshow Bob: If MI goes to Biden, it is 270. Assuming no surprises.
Sideshow Bob
@Cermet: Yeah, I meant without Georgia or Pennsylvania. Sorry, got excited and didn’t notice the typo.
Baud
@Cermet:
Oh, that’s somewhat comforting. I hope MI pulls through.
SectionH
@Elizabelle: Some of my best friends are Zonies… ;->
It’s a CA-AZ thing, I know they have similar terms for us. It’s horrifying how tribal humans can get, how fast.
Arizona’s great.
Quinerly
I know people hate Morning Joe et al. I highly suggest it this AM. Kasie Hunt, who is tied into the House and Senate reporting, is visibly shocked over the House and Senate. And,
Dems weren’t expected to lose seats in the House based on both parties internal polls. “Stunning underperformance of Dems in House and Senate.”
opiejeanne
I’m awake and don’t want to be because tomorrow morning they’re taking the stitches out of my hand.
Jay Inslee won a 3rd term as Governor of WA, which was never in doubt, but Loren Culp is refusing to concede, insists he’s going to win. It’s 59.5% for Inslee, 40.5% for Culp, with 58% reporting.
Not much else being reported yet that I can find other than that Sex Ed won, no state positions.
In other news, there are protesters in Seattle now and the I-5 is closed. 8 have been arrested but the details are a bit sketchy. They may be BLM, and they say they don’t like either Trump or Biden but say that Biden will make a better enemy.
Quinerly
Something is strange. Graham begging for money, thinking he is going to lose. Yet he runs away with it…. 12 points.
opiejeanne
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Thank you for doing the math. I knew you were right but I’m a bit groggy and don’t want to think so hard.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@Cermet: Biden has so far won 78.4% of the absentee vote in Pennsylvania. If Biden wins 75% of the outstanding 1.8 million mail-in votes he would receive 1.35 million votes; subtract 25% of 1.8 million for Dump and it leads to a net advantage of 900,000 votes, more than enough to offset Dump’s current red mirage.
CaseyL
How do you audit vote counts? Is it even possible?
Sideshow Bob
Can I just say – long time reader, first time poster. I’ve been up off and on all night and I can’t thank you all enough for being actual human beings and not chicken littles and finger-pointers like some other orange websites I could name. Obviously, I’m disappointed about the Senate, but I’m cautiously optimistic here and that really, really helps. I spiral in depression easily and being here listening to you all has helped me take a step back. So, thanks for that.
Cermet
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: You are certainly brightening my morning :)
Quinerly
@CaseyL: the odd thing about this is how much off the Dems and Republican internal polls were. These were off more this time than in 2016.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@Sideshow Bob: you’re welcome. we help each other, which is the whole point of being progressive.
Jinchi
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Are the absentees likely to be reported county by county? Because that would give a pretty good indication early on.
I’m still not clear why the mail-in ballots get counted later. Is this true in every state?
Barbara
@Sideshow Bob: Welcome!
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@Jinchi: 1) every state has different rules on counting sequence.
2) they report absentee vote, county by county
Bobby Thomson
Jeez, Betty. Even I am a lot more optimistic about PA and MI. LOTS of outstanding ballots in heavily Democratic areas. The DeJoy play almost worked but – knock on wood – I don’t think it did.
WeimarGerman
@Aziz, light!: no need to drop the EC just add 100 Congressional Reps. Divide US population by population of smallest state (WY) to get the right number in Congress. It only takes a law
Torrey
@WeimarGerman: There is also another way that get us closer to determination by popular vote, and it can be handled on a state-by-state basis: the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. The states in the compact pledge to give their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote. This will take effect when the electoral votes of the participating states reach 270. At the moment, it’s 14 short, so it would be triggered by adding either Michigan OR any two of Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin OR any one of Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin plus either Maine or New Hampshire.
Dmbeaster
@Jinchi: It varies by State.
Mail in ballots require more processing, and its slow labor intensive work.
Some States allow processing as they come in, and other do not allow it to start until the polls close.
Dmbeaster
Michigan looks good for Biden. He is up 34,000, and it keeps growing. Hard to see that trend reversing.
PA and GA may not matter. President Biden looking good.
Shortly it will be about stealing the election.
The legal issues in Wisconsin and Michigan are much more minor.