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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2020 / Well I’ll Be Damned

Well I’ll Be Damned

by John Cole|  November 4, 20209:42 pm| 147 Comments

This post is in: Election 2020

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Biden might take Pa and Georgia.

Also, my facebook feed, where a lot of my former army buddies reside, is a trainwreck and looks a lot like this:

Well I'll Be Damned

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Previous Post: « Wednesday Evening Open Thread: Savor What We’ve Won
Next Post: On The Road – J R in WV – Election Respite, Southwest Edition On The Road - J R in WV - Election Respite, Southwest Edition 6»

Reader Interactions

147Comments

  1. 1.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 9:45 pm

    PA will do it.

    The thread below is embarrassing.

  2. 2.

    trollhattan

    November 4, 2020 at 9:45 pm

    Woot!

  3. 3.

    Full Metal Wingnut

    November 4, 2020 at 9:46 pm

    Is there good news ? Please tell me good news.

  4. 4.

    Tim C.

    November 4, 2020 at 9:50 pm

    @hueyplong: A little, yeah.  But people are a bit fragile; it’s okay.

  5. 5.

    Aleta

    November 4, 2020 at 9:50 pm

    (NYT) False News Targeting Latinos Trails the Election
    Rampant falsehoods evolved online on Wednesday, intended to make Spanish speakers question the unfolding election results and believe that President Trump was being robbed of victory. The posts proliferated on election night before anything remotely definitive was known about the results of the presidential race. “Robado,” they falsely repeated again and again in Spanish: President Trump was being robbed of a victory. He had won Arizona. George Soros was funding violent “antifa riots.”

    The baseless social media messages to Latinos trying to delegitimize the election and the results for Joseph R. Biden Jr. circulated online on Tuesday night and into Wednesday, part of a disinformation campaign to undermine Latino confidence in the vote as it unfolded.

    Ahead of Election Day, false news in Spanish tried to turn Latinos against Black Lives Matter and tie Mr. Biden to socialism, tactics that experts said could depress the Hispanic vote. Now that voting is complete, the rampant falsehoods have only garnered larger audiences — including among immigrants less familiar with the institutions of American democracy. The gist of the falsehoods is that the election is “rigged” against Mr. Trump.

    “These misinformation narratives are helping plunge the country further into chaos and confusion,” said Fadi Quran, a director at Avaaz, a nonprofit that tracks disinformation. He called the disinformation campaigns a “democratic emergency.” “The most vulnerable communities in the country are paying the highest price,” he said.

  6. 6.

    HumboldtBlue

    November 4, 2020 at 9:51 pm

    Nobody likes a loser not even Fox News.

  7. 7.

    cain

    November 4, 2020 at 9:53 pm

    @HumboldtBlue:

    In retrospect maybe that call was too early because it does look like Biden might squeak out with a razor thin margin.

  8. 8.

    OGLiberal

    November 4, 2020 at 9:53 pm

    Both have been steadily and consistently moving in Biden’s direction…no movement towards Trump.  Biden may need them with the late AZ news, although I can’t see Trump Biden losing there in light of Kelly’s win.

    edit: corrected

  9. 9.

    Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.)

    November 4, 2020 at 9:54 pm

    Winning Georgia would be a real knife twisted into Trump’s ribs, wouldn’t it?

  10. 10.

    Full Metal Wingnut

    November 4, 2020 at 9:54 pm

    @OGLiberal: er…

  11. 11.

    HumboldtBlue

    November 4, 2020 at 9:57 pm

    @cain:

    In retrospect if made the Trumpists lose their minds and robbed them a false narrative that even the most craven of GOPers will shy away from when Trump bleats about cheating.

  12. 12.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 9:58 pm

    I’m in the Navy. First Class Petty Officer. There’s a FB group for First Classes and it’s a dumpster fire. There are enough liberals that we are having fun roasting conservatives.

  13. 13.

    jonas

    November 4, 2020 at 9:59 pm

    @Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.): I had my hopes up for TX. I’m not counting on GA, but damn, it looks close. NC would have been sweet, too, but looks like it’s not gonna happen.

  14. 14.

    Mousebumples

    November 4, 2020 at 9:59 pm

    Respite video – https://youtu.be/6AXPnH0C9UA

    It made me and my husband laugh. I’m laughing so hard, I have tears in my eyes.

    I needed that after the okay 24+ hours of stress and worrying.

  15. 15.

    OGLiberal

    November 4, 2020 at 10:00 pm

    @Full Metal Wingnut: Ugh…my bad!  Obviously I meant Biden

  16. 16.

    Ohio Mom

    November 4, 2020 at 10:00 pm

    I just woke up from a three hour nap. Sounds like I’m glad I missed the thread below, and maybe all of them need a nap too.

  17. 17.

    Full Metal Wingnut

    November 4, 2020 at 10:01 pm

    I burned my vacation days to take Wednesday through Friday off. And I’m glad I did but GODDAM I am going to need a vacation from my vacation!

  18. 18.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:03 pm

    @OGLiberal: I fixed that for you so the whole thread isn’t all of us asking the same question.

    is that okay?

  19. 19.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 10:04 pm

    I’m still pleasantly surprised that GA votes still keep rolling in strong for Biden. He’s won 70.6% of the last 522,000 votes. Now down by only 33,000.

  20. 20.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:04 pm

    @Ohio Mom: AZ appears to be going in the wrong direction, that’s what’s being talked about in the thread below.

  21. 21.

    John S.

    November 4, 2020 at 10:05 pm

    Trump is now only up by 33,000 votes in Georgia with over 200,000 left to count.

    Looking pretty good for Biden.

  22. 22.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 10:05 pm

    Dave Wasserman

    @Redistrict· 13m

    If Trump can’t prevail in Pennsylvania, he can’t prevail period – no matter what happens in AZ/GA/NV. And right now, he’s just not on pace to finish ahead.

  23. 23.

    jonas

    November 4, 2020 at 10:05 pm

    @guachi: Trump’s lawyers are going after military ballots hardcore. That’s gotta hurt.

  24. 24.

    coin operated

    November 4, 2020 at 10:05 pm

    The few Trumpers I have on my FB feed, mainly to keep tabs on the talking points, are coming close to full meltdown as the votes keep going Biden’s way.

  25. 25.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 10:06 pm

    And if that won’t do it:

     

    Michael Crowley

    @michaelcrowley – 51m

    CNN’s Dana Bash says a source tells her Trump is feeling “down” and “starting to see this slip away”

  26. 26.

    Tim Posh-looking in a mask

    November 4, 2020 at 10:07 pm

    This from Brunswick Co. NC.  My heart’s confession: I know there are Democrats here, and I’m sure I’ve met both of them. Everybody I know is pro-Him: neighbors, friends, co-workers, patients, most family… And the coolest boss I’ve ever worked under. Ever. This is what saddens and haunts me. There is nothing of Him in them. What do they seek there? They are everything He is not. They feed the hungry, they rescue animals, they buy bus tickets for random wanderers,  they accept Sustainability, they don’t ask how I vote, they give the rat’s least ass if I live or die. They care. How can I hate them? I swore to god 4 yrs ago that He would never, fucking ever, come between me and the people I love. I have succeeded there. But 4 more years would be…difficult.

    My eldest brother, of 6 of us, always the most apolitical, asked me, “Why? What do they see in him? Why can’t they see right through him? Bet he was a bully in high school. He’s an obvious con man!”

    I couldn’t answer him.

    I just know I can’t hate them. I just wish I could explain them.

    Cole, how dou reconcile?

    Long time lurker, only recent commenter.

  27. 27.

    Leto

    November 4, 2020 at 10:08 pm

    @jonas: not surprising. They continue to fuck us every chance they get. Why not at the ballot?

  28. 28.

    HeleninEire

    November 4, 2020 at 10:08 pm

    Deep breaths. That’s all I can say. Like a lot of you I have PTSD from 2016. But Biden has this. He does. I now need to take a deep breath.

  29. 29.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 4, 2020 at 10:11 pm

    @hueyplong: I was just gonna post that. Wasserman’s followers are teasing him to just come out and  say “I’ve seen enough…”

  30. 30.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:11 pm

    @Leto: what are they doing with the military ballot?

  31. 31.

    Kent

    November 4, 2020 at 10:12 pm

    @John S.:

    Trump is now only up by 33,000 votes in Georgia with over 200,000 left to count.

    Looking pretty good for Biden.

    Some quick math.  If there are 200,000 remaining votes and Biden wins 60% of them he  gains 40,000 votes which would pass Trump.

  32. 32.

    Oklahomo

    November 4, 2020 at 10:13 pm

    @coin operated: Same here.  I have a lot of family (including very close family) who are all but baying at the skies in first-clenched white hot fury.

  33. 33.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 10:13 pm

    @John S.: I read down 33,000 with 100k to go, not 200k, but either way he’s been doing better than 2-1.  So GA looking pretty good.

    [Hope you’re right and the tweet I read is wrong but think either will do.]

  34. 34.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:14 pm

    @Tim Posh-looking in a mask: I struggle with several Trump people in my family. Otherwise, good people.

    For the last 3 months I have been telling myself to just wait and see what happens in this election and if Biden can win, maybe I can let the Trumpiness keep from splitting us off for good.

  35. 35.

    jonas

    November 4, 2020 at 10:14 pm

    On what fucking basis are people saying “stop the counting” when state laws are clear that legitimate ballots submitted by election day have to be counted? WTF? You can just go and sit down with a big, steaming mug of STFU and let the elections people do what they need to do. Of course in states where Trump is behind they’re all screaming for recounts and counting xeroxed ballots shipped in two days late from Moscow or wherever.

  36. 36.

    Mike J

    November 4, 2020 at 10:16 pm

    Sprinklers:

    https://twitter.com/josh_emerson/status/1324186631398711296

  37. 37.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 10:18 pm

    @hueyplong: Yes. At this point it’s more like 100,000 votes. Biden needs about 2/3 of them and is getting 70% of them. Can it hold?

  38. 38.

    Leto

    November 4, 2020 at 10:19 pm

    @WaterGirl: just the overall lawsuits of “stop the voting/counting” disproportionately affect military because we’re largely absentee ballot voters. I know the PA AG and SOS said they were going to make sure all absentee ballots are counted, which included military members.

  39. 39.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 10:19 pm

    @guachi: It might be true that a bunch of those “misplaced” USPS ballots were bound for Atlanta.  If so, they’d come in handy.

  40. 40.

    LurkerNoLonger

    November 4, 2020 at 10:19 pm

    @jonas: this is a text my wife sent me:

    Lol I love it. In Detroit they are marching to stop the count and in New York they are marching to demand all votes be counted. What a difference!

  41. 41.

    PsiFighter37

    November 4, 2020 at 10:19 pm

    @John S.: That is incorrect – there were 90k ballots left when it was a 38k margin, so you are probably at 80k outstanding now, if I had to guess. Will be a photo finish no matter what.

  42. 42.

    Splitting Image

    November 4, 2020 at 10:20 pm

    Biden might take Pa and Georgia.

    I’ll take either/or, but a little insurance never hurt.

    Mostly I’m following the four Senate races that are still out now. One Georgia seat is going to a runoff; the other one might, especially if Biden does win the state. Alaska is too hard to tell, but would be a wonderful pickup. North Carolina looks like a near miss.

    I’m confident Biden’s got PA and I’m hopeful for the Senate.

  43. 43.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:21 pm

    @hueyplong: If it’s 100k, the math does not work in Biden’s favor.

    if Biden gets 60% to Trump’s 40%, then that nets Biden 20%.  20% of 100k is 20,000, and Trump is ahead by 33,000.

  44. 44.

    Mary G

    November 4, 2020 at 10:21 pm

    @Aleta: Fake news on Latinx FB is a real  problem.

    My housemate fought back sometime this summer when everyone in her massive family and friends network believed that face masks were bad because carbon monoxide builds up in them. Working with her younger sister, first in the family to go to college, and citing me, the Gringo Translator, she convinced maybe a fifth of the clan. Maybe. In practice, out of her sight, probably none.

    Reposting from below because I didn’t see the new thread that showed up while I was writing it:

    Latinx people vary widely. Catholics can be genuine social conservatives; machismo is a biggie, people who’ve been through multiple coups think the devil they know might be safer than the next guy, people who waited 20 years to immigrate legally don’t want others to have it easier, and on and on.

    Trump’s babies in cages and general cruelty were much worse than Obama’s practices, but Obama actually deported quite a few more people and thus for Biden to be trusted he needed to engage more with the communities and make concrete promises beyond DACA that he just didn’t. Democrats have talked a good game for decades, but the last president who actually did something was Ronald Reagan.

    If Biden does open up immigration and gets CBP and ICE in line (I know, a very tall order) he’ll get more Hispanic votes in 2024. One thing he could do that would go a long way would be to order State to take applications to grant more visitor visas once Covid is under better control ASAP.

    My housemate’s mother was denied twice in the last three years; she wanted to come meet a new granddaughter, and see loved ones in person, and had no intention of staying, but she was sneered at by the people in the consulate and accused of being a “mooching criminal.” That leaves a bad taste.

  45. 45.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 10:21 pm

    @PsiFighter37: Well. If it’s 80000 votes Biden has a much harder time, then.

    To @Watergirl – Biden isn’t  getting 60%. He’s been getting 70% for hours. 70% of the last 522,000 votes. He just needs a few more to make up the difference.

  46. 46.

    TaMara (HFG)

    November 4, 2020 at 10:22 pm

    @Tim Posh-looking in a mask: I have a similar situation. I cannot explain their rationale –  just had an interesting FB interaction with a family member – I think they just don’t pay attention to things like his twitter rants and even regular news. She was questioning the validity of the fact that people stormed the vote count in Detroit. Which I assumed was common knowledge.

    The way I handle it, and I’m not saying it’s easy, is to lead by example and to watch my right leaning family and friends’ actions. If they are the people I have known and loved forever, that’s what I have to hang onto. I know for some people, that’s not possible, but that’s where I am at.

    And I have had two people come to me and say they voted for Biden because of Trump’s behavior. They admitted they couldn’t tell their family, but they knew I’d listen to the mental gymnastics that got them to that point. They both voted for Trump in 2016

    I’ll take it.

  47. 47.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:22 pm

    @Leto: I would have thought they would try to come up with some excuse for making an exception military ballots.

    Of course when all your arguments are bullshit, there doesn’t have to be any logic or consistency to them.

  48. 48.

    Ryan

    November 4, 2020 at 10:22 pm

    I’m feeling good about PA.  I think we got a shot at Georgia.

  49. 49.

    jonas

    November 4, 2020 at 10:23 pm

    @Tim Posh-looking in a mask: Demagoguery and autocracy are powerful drugs. The ancient Greeks knew it. The Founders knew it. And now you know it. The prospect of “getting things done” without the having to go through the messy back-and-forth of political debate and checks and balances. You know, “politics.” The “swamp.” Of course Trump is the Swamp personified, but he delivers on specific promises like stopping immigration, packing the court with right-wing, pro-life justices, and blowing up the EPA with the scintillating power of his own Fuhrerdom. It’s mighty appealing to a lot of people. I won’t belabor the point by quoting Santayana and all that…

  50. 50.

    Tim Posh-looking in a mask

    November 4, 2020 at 10:26 pm

    @WaterGirl: thank you. I can’t just cut them loose. They would never do that to me. It’s just possible that some things are bigger than Him.

  51. 51.

    JML

    November 4, 2020 at 10:26 pm

    I just bet a friend a beer that Biden is gonna take PA & GA. It’s worth it just to feel the positivity of possibly taking GA.

  52. 52.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 10:31 pm

    @WaterGirl: If Biden is doing 60-40 in Atlanta he’s getting crushed in the state.

    The last group of 23k ballots went Biden 18k, Trump 5k

    [I’m taking this off other people’s tweets and presume it’s true]

  53. 53.

    jnfr

    November 4, 2020 at 10:32 pm

    It’s very hard waiting out these last few counts. It could all go great! Or not! No idea! Can’t stand this!

  54. 54.

    Subsole

    November 4, 2020 at 10:33 pm

    @guachi: How many to go?

  55. 55.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:34 pm

    @hueyplong:

    If Biden is doing 60-40 in Atlanta he’s getting crushed in the state.

    It sounds like you are saying that Biden is getting crushed in GA, but are you meaning that Trump is getting crushed in GA?

  56. 56.

    James E Powell

    November 4, 2020 at 10:35 pm

    @Ryan:

    I’m feeling good about PA because everyone else seems so sure. Biden, his campaign people, PA Dems, Nate Cohn. Do we have any PA locals here?

    I want PA because then I don’t have to give a shit about AZ or NV.

    NYT map shows Trump up 34K w/95% counted.  Who knows how many votes are left?

  57. 57.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 10:35 pm

    @WaterGirl: Trump is getting crushed in Atlanta 70-30. If it were 60-40 Georgia would have already been called for Trump.

    Biden is just… just… hitting his margins. And it keeps happening but not so much below it to lose hope or so much above it to put it away.

  58. 58.

    divF

    November 4, 2020 at 10:37 pm

    Re: Georgia. it is 33K difference with .05*5.8M = 290K to go if, the FTFNYT site can be believed. Or maybe it is .04*5.8M = 232K if the percent to go is off by .01. Anyway, not 100K to go.

  59. 59.

    Sure Lurkalot

    November 4, 2020 at 10:37 pm

    @HeleninEire: Lady, I don’t know who you are, but I loved and envied you in Ireland and I still love you in Queens

  60. 60.

    topclimber

    November 4, 2020 at 10:37 pm

    I am going with the local guys to know best that Biden took Arizona.

    That means this posting from the last thread is worth repeating. (Of course it is. I wrote it).

    Meanwhile, with Biden taking Arizona, Nevada becomes the tipping point state.

    Makes one wonder whether some folks in Vegas who placed that bet might be encouraging a slow count.

    If they update tomorrow they are a cinch to beat the other contenders.

     

  61. 61.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    November 4, 2020 at 10:37 pm

    @HumboldtBlue: That would be funny if Fox called Az just to troll Trump.

  62. 62.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 10:39 pm

    The problem is that it’s not all Atlanta.

    Down about 30k with 90,735 total votes outstanding

    Fulton 30,862

    Dekalb 6,606

    Chatham 17,157

    But that leaves about 36.1k in other counties, where Biden not likely to run up crazy numbers though he would probably “win” that count if they are by mail due to Trump’s insistence that his minions not leave their votes in the Postmaster General’s clutches.

    Might come up just short, leaving PA as the winning state.

  63. 63.

    jonas

    November 4, 2020 at 10:39 pm

    @hueyplong: No, if Biden is doing 60/40 in Atlanta, he has a chance of squeaking out a statewide victory. The rest of GA outside a couple of other urban areas is redder than a Confederate flag soaked in bbq sauce.

  64. 64.

    debit

    November 4, 2020 at 10:40 pm

    Now Trump supporters are protesting in AZ to count every vote.

  65. 65.

    Ohio Mom

    November 4, 2020 at 10:41 pm

    Tim Posh-looking:

    It’s a puzzle. Not to get all Goodwin, but Nazi camp staff went home after a hard day’s work, kissed their wives before sitting down to dinner, played with their kids, helped them with their homework, went over to their elderly parents’ house and lent them a hand with the chores now beyond them, and so forth.

    If Nazis aren’t your thing, substitute a high-ranking Mafioso. Or any number of other people spending their days advancing evil ends. Put in that light, your people are amateurs.

    I don’t have an answer for you. I can point out that circumstances and environment shape us, even when we think we are above that. Maybe the larger environment will shift enough that they will shift too.

  66. 66.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 10:41 pm

    Now that I see divF’s post, I’m not sure.  If those numbers are right, we’re good.  I took mine off a GA tracker’s tweet.

  67. 67.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 10:42 pm

    @jonas: If 60-40 in ATL would do it, Biden would have already won.

  68. 68.

    divF

    November 4, 2020 at 10:44 pm

    @hueyplong: At this point, I don’t quite trust my ability to do simple arithmetic, so feel free to check my work (or the FTFNYT’s work).

  69. 69.

    Tim Posh-looking in a mask

    November 4, 2020 at 10:44 pm

    @TaMara (HFG): me too. Thanks.

  70. 70.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:48 pm

    @debit: They are shameless.  Utterly shameless.

  71. 71.

    TaMara (HFG)

    November 4, 2020 at 10:48 pm

    @Ohio Mom: 

    Maybe the larger environment will shift enough that they will shift too.

    This. You can’t give up on people. Neo-Nazis have seen the light and left that life and spent their days making amends.

    I worked with two former gang members, now husbands, fathers and decent men. They understood how and why they behaved the way they did when they were younger. They worked hard to help other young men leave that life.

    And some people just go with the flow. It’s not great…but that’s just who they are. I’ve had older people in my life go from ‘gay marriage folks should burn in hell’ to hanging wedding invites on the refrigerator and sending gifts.

  72. 72.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 10:48 pm

    Does anyone know anything about outstanding GA votes by voters who had their ballots rejected because of signature mismatch?

    I only read that it was a thing that could be rectified by Friday and there were 40,000 of those votes. I have no idea if anything has been done about it.

  73. 73.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 10:49 pm

    @divF: A little anxiety creeps in when you realize you’re at the sticking point, that’s for sure.

  74. 74.

    Splitting Image

    November 4, 2020 at 10:52 pm

    The most recent news from the New York Times (28 minutes ago) is that Pennsylvania has about 740,000 votes to be counted. This includes 560,000 votes in counties won by HIllary Clinton and 180,000 votes in counties won by Trump.

    Biden is currently down 170,000 votes and needs about 62% of the remainder to win the state. Out of the 1 million absentee ballots counted so far, Biden has won 78% of them.

    Keep calm and carry on folks. Remember that the pustule is sweating this more than we are.

  75. 75.

    Tim Posh-looking in a mask

    November 4, 2020 at 10:52 pm

    @Ohio Mom: I’d like to think that when he’s all over, a fugitive from justice alive and well somewhere in  South America,  we’ll all be sitting around, looking at each other, going, “wtf was all that about?” And maybe start a whole new world. I’d like to think that.

  76. 76.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers was fidelio

    November 4, 2020 at 10:53 pm

    A Twitter thread on some of the work done to strengthen the Democratic Party in Arizona:

    https://twitter.com/_ajcousins/status/1324003781105909761?s=21

  77. 77.

    James E Powell

    November 4, 2020 at 10:53 pm

    @hueyplong:

    Where do those numbers come from?

  78. 78.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:53 pm

    @guachi: Stacey Abrams is organizing and recruiting people in or near Georgia to go in-person to knock on doors of the people whose ballots need curing.

    There’s training going on and they are trying to mobilize people for the effort.  They think that could maybe be what hopefully brings Perdue down below 50% + 1, which means we could get two runoff elections in Georgia, which might give the senate to the Dems.  Not to mention two excellent senators.

  79. 79.

    NickM

    November 4, 2020 at 10:54 pm

    I checked divF’s numbers and the NYT Georgia report and calculated 240,000 ballots yet to be counted, which means that unless my math is way wrong Biden can close the gap and exceed Trumps’s 33,000 vote margin by running about 57-43 or more, which sounds doable.

  80. 80.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 10:57 pm

    @NickM: That’s cutting it super close.  He probably needs to be above 57 or he risks coming in even or losing.

  81. 81.

    NickM

    November 4, 2020 at 10:57 pm

    @Tim Posh-looking in a mask: But even the ballots in the counties won by Trump should be more Dem-skewing because Dems were more likely to vote by mail, right?

  82. 82.

    NickM

    November 4, 2020 at 10:58 pm

    @WaterGirl: But it sounds like he’s been exceeding that so far – right?

  83. 83.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 4, 2020 at 10:58 pm

    @guachi: “Ballot cure” teams are working the phones to talk to voters who need to rectify problems with their ballots and tell them what they need to do. It’s in a few states – I think North Carolina is another one.

  84. 84.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 11:02 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: Thank you. There’s only so much media one can follow so I appreciate the update.

  85. 85.

    jl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:03 pm

    Trumpster protesting to stop vote in Maricopa County, AZ? Where Biden is ahead by almost 3 points?

    Well, what do they think they are doing? Good thing these fascists are so foolish.

    Seriously, if anyone knows what is going on and what the point of it is, let me know.

    Maybe the idea is to stop the counting everywhere in hopes that Trump might eek out a win when the dust settles.

  86. 86.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:06 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: I think it’s really interesting that what Stacey Abrams is recruiting for in GA is people to go in person, rather than phone.  She knows GA peeps, so I’m sure she knows what she’s doing but I thought that was unusual.

  87. 87.

    West of the Cascades

    November 4, 2020 at 11:06 pm

    @jl: “I don’t see any method at all, sir.”

  88. 88.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:07 pm

    @NickM: Yes, Biden has been exceeding that.

  89. 89.

    jl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:07 pm

    @jl:

    At least there are counterprotesters who are willing to show up and show support for rule of law.

    ” Now two groups outside clashing. AZ Patriots with Biden/ Kelly supporters chanting “count every vote” & “Donald Trump has got to go.” #ABC15 ”

    https://twitter.com/NicoleValdesTV/status/1324187489884463104

  90. 90.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:07 pm

    @NickM: Do we know for sure that these are mail-in ballots?

  91. 91.

    jonas

    November 4, 2020 at 11:08 pm

    @hueyplong: Ok, I see you point now — yes, if he’s only 60/40 in Atlanta, then that’s not good. Hopefully it’s a lot better.

  92. 92.

    West of the Cascades

    November 4, 2020 at 11:10 pm

    @WaterGirl: It seems like in-person would allow someone to walk a voter through the process (and they can cure by email or fax). From the Georgia Democrats website (https://www.georgiademocrat.org/curing-your-vote-by-mail-ballot/) —

    Did you receive notification from your county that your vote by mail ballot would not count unless you take follow-up action?

    Send a copy of the following documents to your county registrar by email or fax, or, present the original in person:

    1. You MUST send one of the following:  a GA driver’s license; valid government, military or tribal photo ID; or a utility bill, bank statement, paycheck or government document that shows the voter’s name and current address.
    2. You MAY need to send the following: if the county informed you the signature on your ballot did not match or was missing, also submit a signed copy of this form, swearing that you are eligible to vote and voted by mail.

    Complete follow-up by 5 pm on [three days after Election Day] for your ballot to count.

    Questions: Call the Democratic Party of Georgia Voter Protection Hotline at 888-730-5816.

  93. 93.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 4, 2020 at 11:10 pm

    Wasserman’s followers pestering him to say “I’ve seen enough…” about PA

    Dave Wasserman @Redistrict 26m
    No, I’m not going to “say it.” There is no need for anyone to be first in this situation.

    he sounds like Twitter Nixon

  94. 94.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 11:11 pm

    Fulton Co. plans on counting all of its ballots tonight. That’s probably why Biden has been at 70% so consistently. I think the professional vote guys will be able to determine what’s likely once that number hits zero.

  95. 95.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 11:12 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: On the contrary, there is a great need for somebody to say it first.

    Otherwise no one ever does and it’s 2016.

  96. 96.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:12 pm

    @West of the Cascades: Yeah, I think Stacey Abrams isn’t messing around.  It’s unusual, but in a good way because there’s only Thursday and Friday to do this.

    I’m planning on putting up a post in the morning in case there are people on BJ who might live close enough that they can go, and also I imagine they need funds!

  97. 97.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:14 pm

    @guachi: I’m so tired, I can’t remember which state Fulton County is in.  ??

  98. 98.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 11:14 pm

    @WaterGirl: I live in Augusta, GA. I’m in the military so I’m not sure I can legally do this.

    Is it partisan or not?

    Fulton Co. is GA. Atlanta is partly in Fulton Co. Elections teach you county names.

  99. 99.

    SFAW

    November 4, 2020 at 11:15 pm

    According to the Inquirer website, as of 10:54, Shitgibbon was up by about 165,000. Also according to their site, there are about 852K votes (mail-in, I believe) to be counted. [ETA: The 852K figure is my own calc, not Inky’s printed number. I based it on number of votes counted, then extrapolated from their 88 percent figure to get the 852K left to go.]

    Biden’s been running at a rate of about 77 percent of the mail-ins. If we cut that to 70 percent for the remainder, that gives him about 597K votes to be banked for him, vs. about 256K for the Fascist-in-Chief, yielding a differential of around plus-340K for Biden. If he gains 340K, subtracting the 165K he’s currently trailing by, yields a final total of plus-175K for Biden.

    I used to be pretty good at maths, but my braims ain’t what they used to be, so someone might need to double-check my calcs. But if I’m right, then PA goes for Joe, bigly.

    [Note: According to my calcs, if joe gets 65 percent, he still comes out 90K ahead. If he gets only 60 percent, THEN it gets really close, around a 5000 vote lead for Joe.

    ETA: If the 77 percent holds, he’ll be up by ~300K, Again, caveat lector.

  100. 100.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:15 pm

    @guachi: My personal opinion is that it is not.  Unless her organization is only helping to cure ballots for Dems, which might well be the case.  Hang on for a minute and i’ll put the tweet in that tells you who to call, etc.

  101. 101.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:16 pm

    @guachi:

    ? GEORGIA: We need your help contacting voters across the state to ensure their votes are counted. Voters only have until THIS FRIDAY, November 6th – sign up to help today: https://t.co/uQuSMf6f58 1/2

    — Fair Fight (@fairfightaction) November 4, 2020

  102. 102.

    hueyplong

    November 4, 2020 at 11:17 pm

    @SFAW: That parallels the thinking from earlier today.

    Good.  They’re apparently still on track.

    That would explain Trump’s malaise.

  103. 103.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 4, 2020 at 11:18 pm

    @WaterGirl: Different groups are doing different things. It’s great that Abrams is recruiting people to work in person, but I know of groups here in New Mexico and in the DC area that are doing this and, of course, can do it only by phone.

  104. 104.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 4, 2020 at 11:18 pm

    @SFAW:

    According to the Inquirer website, as of 10:54, Shitgibbon was up by about 165,000. Also according to their site, there are about 852K votes (mail-in, I believe) to be counted.

    I thought I heard the MSNBC reporter in PA say there were that many votes out, but then I thought I must’ve misheard. She also said that Bob Casey is predicting Biden takes the state by 100K votes

  105. 105.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:21 pm

    @SFAW: My quick & dirty math is this:

    If it’s Biden 70% to Trump 30%, then subtract 30 from 70 and Biden nets 40%.

    Then I multiple 40% to the number of ballots that are left, and that number needs to be significantly higher than whatever amount Trump is ahead by.  Because we don’t want to be anywhere near recount territory.

  106. 106.

    WaterGirl

    November 4, 2020 at 11:22 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: Yeah, my first thought was phone, so I did a double-take when I saw what she was doing.  It may well take less time in person if you’re talking to someone who is being asked to do something that is not familiar, including using a fax or whatever.

  107. 107.

    Leto

    November 4, 2020 at 11:24 pm

    @guachi: as long as you’re not in uniform, and not actively saying, “The US military/Navy is here supporting this!” You should be fine.

  108. 108.

    SFAW

    November 4, 2020 at 11:30 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    If it’s Biden 70% to Trump 30%, then subtract 30 from 70 and Biden nets 40%.

    Yes. Sometimes I do the quick way, and sometimes my old-fart-ness forgets how to do that. But your way gives the same result as mine. As an FYI: Shitgibbon’s lead is currently about 19-plus percent of the (assumed) remaining ballots. That means Joe needs to do better than 60/40 for raw numbers, but more like 64/36 to avoid a recount (assuming a one percent threshold for triggering a recount).

  109. 109.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 4, 2020 at 11:30 pm

    Dave Wasserman @Redistrict 12m
    Although the “Whole Foods revolt” against Trump wasn’t as dramatic as we might have expected, it comes through for Biden in Chester Co., PA. Biden now ahead in Chester by 16.5 points w/ 305k ballots counted – way more than enough. Clinton won it by 9.4 points w/ 270k cast

    I want Biden to run the table, but I’ll take PA. Sounds like tomorrow is the day

  110. 110.

    NoraLenderbee

    November 4, 2020 at 11:33 pm

    Not counting on it, but it would be so awesome to win Georgia. The frickin Confederacy pwned by Black voters. Ooh yeah.

  111. 111.

    NotMax

    November 4, 2020 at 11:33 pm

    @SFAW

    Pennsylvania Attorney General said 800-something thousand remain outstanding on air around 10:30 Pennsy time tonight.

  112. 112.

    SFAW

    November 4, 2020 at 11:33 pm

    @Leto:

    “The US military/Navy is here supporting this!”

    Hmm. I knew you junior birdmen hated the Navy, but to separate them out from the “US military” — that’s cold.

    Yes, I’m kidding. I couldn’t resist cracking them over that line.

  113. 113.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 11:36 pm

    Another 4700 votes in GA nets Biden 2800. Trump lead down to 28,500 (according to AP).

  114. 114.

    SFAW

    November 4, 2020 at 11:36 pm

    @NotMax:

    Pennsylvania Attorney General said 800-something thousand remain outstanding on air around 10:30 Pennsy time tonight.

    At 2:00 AM EST tomorrow, after a two-hour chat with America’s Chief Law Enforcement Office, a/k/a Traitor Shill Barr, the PA AG will issue a retraction/correction, noting that “all votes that are going to be counted have now been counted.”

  115. 115.

    Another Scott

    November 4, 2020 at 11:37 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and the presidency) by a combined 77,744 votes in 2016.

    At this rate, Biden is on track to finish ahead by more than that in each of Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020

    Good, good.

    Agreed that Thursday seems to be the day.

    ‘night all. Rest easy.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  116. 116.

    James E Powell

    November 4, 2020 at 11:38 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    I do the same thing & round the numbers so I can do it in my head.

    62- 38 = 24, which I change to 25% of 850K, which I change to 800K, which gives me 200K votes and Joe wins. So he needs 62% of the incoming.

  117. 117.

    frosty

    November 4, 2020 at 11:38 pm

    @SFAW: Thanks for this. I’ve been doing the same calcs using the Inky data and figured if he got 60% he’d win. I think Philly was 63% D so that’s the number I used.

    I seem to have lost the ability to do algebra in my head. This should be a simple equation but I don’t feel like getting a pencil and paper out.

    ETA: And I see WaterGirl came up with an easy solution. You go WG!!

  118. 118.

    Leto

    November 4, 2020 at 11:39 pm

    @SFAW: hey, much love for the Marine taxi service :p

  119. 119.

    Keith P.

    November 4, 2020 at 11:40 pm

    @Another Scott: That’s like crack rock for me. It may be fleeting, but I hope it lasts forever.

  120. 120.

    NotMax

    November 4, 2020 at 11:41 pm

    @SFAW

    “As I didn’t have the exact number at hand, rounded up to the nearest 800,000.”

    //

  121. 121.

    SFAW

    November 4, 2020 at 11:45 pm

    @guachi:

    Another 4700 votes in GA nets Biden 2800. Trump lead down to 28,500 (according to AP).

    That’s about a 60 percent rate for Joe. If that rate continues for all the remaining precincts, I think Biden comes out on top by ~20K for the state.

  122. 122.

    SFAW

    November 4, 2020 at 11:47 pm

    @Leto:

    hey, much love for the Marine taxi service :p

    Thanks for the laugh. [Couldn’t laugh too loud, everyone else is asleep.]

  123. 123.

    Mai Naem mobile

    November 4, 2020 at 11:48 pm

    @jl: dumbasses think the county recorder building people turned on the lawn sprinklers on them on purpose. Dumbasses are the same idiots that turn on their damn sprinklers on in the middle of the day and lose half the water to evaporation. This is a major pet peeve of mine. You shouldn’t even have grass in the desert but,damn it, if you are don’t waste precious water on your lawn when the water is going to evaporate.

  124. 124.

    SFAW

    November 4, 2020 at 11:49 pm

    @NotMax:

    “As I didn’t have the exact number at hand, rounded up to the nearest 800,000.”

    And that one is probably the most plausible line Barr offered him.

  125. 125.

    Jean

    November 4, 2020 at 11:49 pm

    @SFAW: I don’t understand what you’re saying below the blocked quotation.  Is it that PA Attorney General is not going to count all the outstanding votes, or that all counting will be done by 2:00 a.m.?  OR that counting will just stop and that’s that.  Or are you joking?

  126. 126.

    CatFacts

    November 4, 2020 at 11:49 pm

    For whatever it’s worth, a couple of election data crunchers on Twitter (Drew Savicki and Brendan Keefe) seem to be saying that Biden is meeting his benchmarks in Georgia so far. I guess we’ll see.

  127. 127.

    guachi

    November 4, 2020 at 11:50 pm

    @SFAW: The net was the net gain, not how many votes he got.

    It was 3760 for Biden and 975 for Trump. Biden got 79.4% of that vote dump. It was a really good chunk for Biden.

  128. 128.

    NotMax

    November 4, 2020 at 11:50 pm

    All the various if…then microscopic gaming out and speculation preceding every drib and succeeding each drab of numbers released is nervous foot-tapping, some of which is headed hellbent for leather into how many angels can dance on the head of a pin territory.

    Personally am scrolling past and paying it next to no attention. We’ll know what we know when we know it.

  129. 129.

    SFAW

    November 4, 2020 at 11:52 pm

    @Jean:

    It was a joke. Or an attempt at one. I figure that, at this point, Shitgibbon is so desperate to stop the PA count, he’ll send Tom Hagen Barr to “explain how the world works” to the PA AG. As in “We know where your kids go to school. Do I need to draw youse a picture?”

  130. 130.

    HumboldtBlue

    November 4, 2020 at 11:53 pm

    What’s gonna happen when they fine a cool 100,000 uncounted votes for Trump on Hunter Biden’s laptop?

    Huh?

    Huh?

    Here’s some Billy Sherman

  131. 131.

    SFAW

    November 4, 2020 at 11:54 pm

    @guachi:

    Ah. “Net” can be used in different ways, I assumed the worng way, so thanks for the correction.

  132. 132.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 4, 2020 at 11:55 pm

    for your facebooks

    Bettina Forget @BettinaForget
    Data visualization insights: Land doesn’t vote. People do. #USElection2020

  133. 133.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    November 4, 2020 at 11:56 pm

    @HumboldtBlue: It’s quite possible the Team Biden hid them in Hillary’s emails! And in a major plot twist Fox News Helped them!

    Et tu Fox? Et to Fox?

  134. 134.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    November 4, 2020 at 11:59 pm

    Olbermen on how Trump can’t even steal an election correctly

    https://youtu.be/nNDH6z5d0Y8

  135. 135.

    NotMax

    November 5, 2020 at 12:00 am

    @HumboldtBlue

    “They printed ballots in Ukrainian? Who knew?”

    //

  136. 136.

    James E Powell

    November 5, 2020 at 12:03 am

    So I figure I will wait up till the next AZ drop then go to bed to sleep or to toss & turn, depending.

  137. 137.

    HumboldtBlue

    November 5, 2020 at 12:09 am

    @NotMax:

    Ha!

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    Never even thought how deep the conspiracy goes.

  138. 138.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 5, 2020 at 12:13 am

    well, how about that…

    Scott Walker@ScottWalker · 13h

    If it holds, @LPNational candidate got 38,000 votes in Wisconsin and margin between @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump is less than 21,000 votes. #Elections2020

  139. 139.

    Danielx

    November 5, 2020 at 12:16 am

    After two days, total exhaustion and constant undertone of “fuck those guys” in the back of my head at all times.

  140. 140.

    Sebastian

    November 5, 2020 at 12:17 am

    @Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.):

     

    Three interventions from beyond the grave

     

    RBG

    John McCain

    John Lewis ✊

    Come to your own conclusions.

  141. 141.

    HumboldtBlue

    November 5, 2020 at 12:36 am

    Sarah Cooper’s Netflix sow is a great to divert your attention away from the drama.

    Hilarious.

  142. 142.

    Jean

    November 5, 2020 at 12:38 am

    @SFAW: Oh, good.  I’m just about brain-dead from reading about vote counting and percentages needed in AZ, GA, and PA.

  143. 143.

    NotMax

    November 5, 2020 at 12:52 am

    @HumboldtBlue

    (best Jimmy Durante imitation)

    “What elephant drama?”

    :)

  144. 144.

    A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)

    November 5, 2020 at 2:35 am

    @hueyplong: Yes, Steve Kornacki has been making the point that mail ballots even from red counties are much more likely to be Biden votes, since the Trumpists generally avoided sending in votes by USPS.

  145. 145.

    Noskilz

    November 5, 2020 at 2:47 am

    Something that was making the rounds a few years ago seems only more true: “in 2017, we’ll know who everyone is” and  2020 seems determined to emphasize the deficiencies that were revealed then.

    While it’s been a bit sad in recent years to discover what trash some of my old acquaintances are, there is something to be said for knowing who is and isn’t worth one’s time.

  146. 146.

    Death Panel Truck

    November 5, 2020 at 3:01 am

    I guess no one’s told protesters that if you’re trying to win an election and you’re behind, it’s not a good idea to stop counting. Jesus, these fucking dolts…

  147. 147.

    Pittsburgh Mike

    November 5, 2020 at 8:51 am

    @jl: Doesn’t make a lot of sense.  If you stop counting now, Biden wins AZ and NV, and it’s game over.

     

    FWIW, I think Biden’s surest path is counting all ballots in PA.  AZ’s missing ballots are a mystery, since AZ counted early ballots already.  GA is looking very tight.  But PA is counting mail-in ballots that are heavily Democratic, and most of the remaining ones are coming from PHL and PIT, and of those, mostly PHL.

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