Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

In my day, never was longer.

This blog will pay for itself.

The republican caucus is already covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

This fight is for everything.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

After roe, women are no longer free.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Biden-Harris 2020 / Thursday Morning Open Thread: Bunker Down

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Bunker Down

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Thank you, commentor Winston, for the link:


Stacy Abrams continues to show her worth:

Also, I know we were a sprinkle of drops in a rainstorm, but I’m feeling good about those Four Directions donations!

Reader Interactions

275Comments

  2. 2.

    Woodrow/asim

    I think a Front Page around how we can help the Georgia Vote Curing efforts + donations for potential Runoff(s) would be a sound investment, at this point.

  4. 4.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    Our overpaid national broadcast media is worthless.

    Why are Wolf Blitzer, John King and Bryan Williams still infesting airwaves with their oldness and tired conventional wisdom? Why do I keep hearing the cracked voice of Mrs Greenspan?

  5. 5.

    zhena gogolia

    As I said yesterday, everybody needs to stop making Untergang parodies — this is the ultimate and most appropriate, successful one.

  7. 7.

    SiubhanDuinne

    Guardian front page, Thursday 2 November 2020: Biden: no one will take away our democracy

    Forget it, Jake. It’s the Grauniad.

  8. 8.

    Yutsano

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Because they can. For some reason all those big anchors have a lot of pull at their relative networks. Andrea Mitchell should have retired ages ago, and allowing Brian Williams to come back after lying about his time in Iraq was a terrible decision. And yet, here they are sucking up millions while pretending to be journalists. We need massive media ownership reform. Maybe even that could get past Yertle*.

    *Assuming he lives much longer.

  10. 10.

    debbie

    Now that I am confident Joe will be president, I’m kind of enjoying watching Trump’s foolishness. I think one way to avoid recounts would be to make Trump pay for them up front.

  11. 11.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    Other deep thoughts – suburban white women are still generally awful people. Also, I don’t really give a fuck about targeting any relief to the white working class because it is a wasted effort, and I hope that Biden uses his new Trumpist presidential powers to reallocate money from Kentucky transportation projects, opiate control and military personnel to places where there is more bang for the buck – like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh. In fact, that could be the New New Deal – rural and persistently red? Fine, we’ll give you the freedom and government you want….

  12. 12.

    SFAW

    @debbie: 

    I think one way to avoid recounts would be to make Trump pay for them up front.

    “I will gladly pay you never in January for a recount today.”

  14. 14.

    John S.

    @zzyzx: AZ is done. Trump cannot overcome the current margin with what is left to come in and more importantly where it’s coming from. The only reason some of the networks haven’t called it is because they want MOAR DRAMA.

    They are all obsessing over AZ, and meanwhile GA is down to a 20,000 vote margin with 100,000 yet to be counted from areas where Biden is getting 70%+. Which means he can win.

    ETA: Similar dynamics are playing out in PA, but that’s less certain at this point. I just want NV to be done and over with so we can officially call this fucking election and let the Toddler in Chief have his meltdown.

  15. 15.

    snoey

    @debbie: A quick read of the Wisconsin recount rules says that the requestor has to pay in advance.

    I would assume that that is true most places.  Broke and desperate losing campaigns are nothing new.

  16. 16.

    Amir Khalid

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:

    Why are Wolf Blitzer, John King and Bryan Williams still infesting airwaves with their oldness and tired conventional wisdom? Why do I keep hearing the cracked voice of Mrs Greenspan?

    I suspect that these people, among others, look in the mirror and imagine they see Ed Murrow or Walter Cronkite.

  18. 18.

    Woodrow/asim

    @debbie: I think one way to avoid recounts would be to make Trump pay for them up front.

    In WI, he would have to pay for it, due to the margin. In 2016, Stein paid 3.5 million for a recount.

  21. 21.

    SFAW

    @Amir Khalid:

    I suspect that these people, among others, look in the mirror and imagine they see Ed Murrow or Walter Cronkite.

    There’s a joke to be made about them looking like what Murrow and Cronkite would look like today, but I can’t deliver.

  22. 22.

    SFAW

    @snoey:

    A quick read of the Wisconsin recount rules says that the requestor has to pay in advance.

    Uday or Qusay will have the Trump Foundation cut them a check, ASAP

  23. 23.

    hueyplong

    @John S.: Agree but my theory is that Fox would have undone their call if they really thought AZ was still in play.  They could further their narrative by saying they were fooled by Dem shenanigans, those bastards.

    But they haven’t.  You want to believe it’s because they actually think Biden will win AZ.

    But the Kraken that will take down Trump is PA and we can’t wait to open that Christmas present.

  31. 31.

    debbie

    Thanks, everyone. I checked Ohio, and while the requester has to pay, it doesn’t state that it has to be in advance. Because a requester can get a refund if the results change, it sounds like it does have to be paid up front. Thanks again for your clarity in your language, Ohio!

  35. 35.

    SFAW

    @John S.:

    Similar dynamics are playing out in PA, but that’s less certain at this point.

    Unless the percentage suddenly reverse — or inexplicably change drastically — Biden’s “run rate” there is on track to pass the Murderer-in-Chief overall when about 415K mail-in votes are counted. As of last night at midnight, I think there were currently upwards of 800K left to count, so I’m cautiously optimistic.

    Of course, that assumes Supreme Justices Alito, Thomas, Coathanger Barrett, Gorsuch, and McDrunkard don’t step in to declare PA has no right to count votes that are for Biden.

  36. 36.

    Kathleen

    @Immanentize: Speaking of existential angst, my fantasy is that the Trump/Rethuglican cabal star in Hell’s production of No Exit. All of them trapped in a room together for Eternity. Makes me smile.

  38. 38.

    mrmoshpotato

    @John S.:

    and let the Toddler in Chief have his meltdown. 

    As opposed to what the Soviet shitpile mobster manbaby has been doing for the past four years?

  40. 40.

    Immanentize

    @debbie: Most (but not all) States are like this:

    If the vote difference is within some very narrow% band, the State automatically recounts on its own.

    If the vote count is within another narrow, but less so band, there may be a recount but the challenger must pay.  Recounts can be whole jurisdiction (like as state) or select sub-jurisdictions (like counties).  The payment of the anticipated costs of the count usually are in the form of a bond paid up front which is returned if you win the challenge

  42. 42.

    hueyplong

    @Immanentize: Yes.  The comments by the people watching AZ give the impression the early calls were made based on assumptions about the remaining vote that were not 100% correct.  But that doesn’t mean they’re wrong, it just means the calls aren’t as solid.  What’s important is that as events have unfolded they haven’t reversed the call.

    So long as we don’t see a reversal, we can keep our AZ blue on the map.  A reversal will be the signal to panic (about AZ, not in general).

    Watching MSNBC you could get an impression they’d be ok with Trump winning AZ because it would make them look good for not having called it when Fox and AP did.

  43. 43.

    SFAW

    @Kathleen:

    It would probably bounce.

    Good one! “Probably”? Right. I guess “probably” can also apply to “100 percent dead certain” situations.

  45. 45.

    mrmoshpotato

    @SFAW:

    Uday or Qusay will have the Trump Foundation cut them a check, ASAP 

    And it’ll bounce more than all of the bounce houses in the world.

  46. 46.

    SFAW

    @mrmoshpotato:

    I’ll take mine medium-rare with ketchup, mustard, pickles and onions.  And a side of cajun fries.

    I was going to call you a wimp, but you redeemed yourself with that last add-in.

  47. 47.

    Betty Cracker

    A guy I follow on Twitter made the excellent point that exit polls are almost always garbage (perhaps we can update that to ALL polls) and that this year, they’re almost certainly trashier than usual due to the heavy partisan split in in-person vs. mail-in voting. Personally, I’m going to try to refrain from writing off large swathes of voters as irredeemable assholes until better data is available.

  48. 48.

    debbie

    @Immanentize:

    Good, thanks. I think having to pay would be the only thing stopping Trump from demanding recounts everywhere he could.

    I wonder whether, if Trump wins one of his rulings,  Joe should start demanding recounts where he narrowly lost? Just to give Trump a taste of his own medicine? I wonder if Trump ever considered that possibility.

  49. 49.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    Bob Casey’s sixth grade Pennsylvania civics textbook  map is cracking me up.

  51. 51.

    DMcK

    Let’s start a recount GoFundMe, pocket the dough, and send it to Cole so he can build the geodome around his house he so painfully craves

  52. 52.

    Subsole

    @hueyplong: Yeah. We’re all just waiting for Wasserman to say the thing, at this point, aren’t we?

    But man…how sweet woud GA be, especially after the BULLshit Kemp pulled…?

    Any news on that mob outside Maricopa?

  55. 55.

    Amir Khalid

    @Subsole:

    No, I’m not — seriously — considering any new guitars. At the moment.

    If we’re honest with ourselves, most of us journos are well aware we aren’t on either Murrow’s level or Cronkite’s.

  57. 57.

    Steeplejack

    I have been dipping into Twitter and the blogs only occasionally to get actual news and developments and to avoid all the drama. Looks like Biden will prevail, although it’s not quite over yet. I’m glad to see that the media have not let Trump set the narrative. They seem to be reporting his comments with a minimum of hoopla and then going back to the actual election.

    I guess the Senate will come down to the Georgia runoff(s?). Bit disappointing to see eight seats lost in the House, but I don’t blame Pelosi for that. Maybe we overperformed in 2018 and this is a correction? I haven’t looked yet to see who actually lost.

    To aid me in my distraction, I have a doctor’s appointment later this morning. Checkup, flu shot and maybe some tests. The doctor—or, more accurately, the Kaiser minions—were a bit vague on the details. Whatever. I’m due. Since I’ll be out and about in full tactical gear (pants!), maybe I’ll get some good takeout for lunch.

  58. 58.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @debbie:

    I like how the Maricopa sheriffs are currently protecting the count center. You know that if Arpaio was in charge, they’d be raiding the center and doing the count themselves, overseen by Joe…

  60. 60.

    Geminid

    @Amir Khalid: While American TV broadcasters value viewership among the coveted 34-56 year-old demographic, the networks know their core news viewers are older Americans. These folks like and trust the familiar faces, may even find them comforting.

  61. 61.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @p.a.:

    “Want rural broadband? Pay for it yourselves, moochers. And forget about dam, generator or transmission upgrades. We’re going to power up Atlanta instead….”

  66. 66.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Woodrow/asim: I think a Front Page around how we can help the Georgia Vote Curing efforts + donations for potential Runoff(s) would be a sound investment, at this point.

    When DougJ puts up the thermometers for Ossoff and Warnock for the runoffs, my wallet is ready.

  69. 69.

    leeleeFL

    @OzarkHillbilly:  Last night, I put CNN on for the first time in 4 YEARS!  It took precisely 49 seconds for me to remember why I stopped watching it in the first place.  Back to HGTV!  Please keep me posted on waz appening!

  70. 70.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Steeplejack: I’ve got an 11:00 Drs appt too, than a1 PM stop at the landscaper’s to pick up a couple yards of compost. I think the future holds a hot pastrami in between the 2 for me.

  71. 71.

    Zzyzx

    Gun to my head, I think the most likely result for each state is that Biden gets PA/AZ/NV and falls just short in GA/NC, but I want that to happen NOW already so I can stop stressing. Why are we letting those PA vote counters sleep when we all need updates?!

  74. 74.

    topclimber

    For those who noted the intriguing possibility that Nevada might want to be the tipping point state, consider this from the Nevada Independent:

    “The secretary of state’s office is now expected to post new results about 9 a.m. Thursday, while Washoe County said to expect its results before 10 a.m. and Clark County has a press briefing scheduled for the same time.”

    This follows a day of promised announcements and then delays. Were they sandbagging us?

  75. 75.

    Raven

    @Zzyzx:

     
    About 78,000 absentee ballots remained to be counted in Georgia Wednesday night as Joe Biden pulled within about 32,000 votes of President Donald Trump.

  76. 76.

    Nicole

    @Zzyzx:  My husband posted a meme from Twitter,  expressing frustration at the delay there, because Nevada is known for literally two things- counting stuff and staying up all night.  I laughed.

  81. 81.

    Amir Khalid

    @Immanentize:

    I’m sorry, but this cannot be true. There’s just no such thing as a used Gibson guitar being sold at a “reasonable” price, especially not a sacred relic touched by Albert King himself.

  83. 83.

    hueyplong

    @Zzyzx: That’s a nice and fairly optimistic scenario you propose.  Gives rise to a suspicion that you really did have a gun to your head.

  87. 87.

    Steeplejack

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Sounds good. I’m leaning toward a bacon cheeseburger and onion rings from my local pub, where in the before times I used to go once every few weeks to eat lunch at the bar and be around other humans.

    I’m sort of down on my deli right now. The last couple of times I got a pastrami sandwich the meat load was disappointingly slight. Since I always get it to go, there’s no one to complain to at home.

  88. 88.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Betty Cracker: almost always garbage?

    IIRC, CNN had less than a 25000-person sample size in 2016.  And no info on which states they got exiting polling from.  Use-fucking-less.

  90. 90.

    Geminid

    @Steeplejack: Good news in the Virginia 7th Congressional District! With 100% of votes counted, Abigail Spanberger leads her challenger 227,538 to 222,406. They say a new Representative’s  toughest reelection is the first one. I really respect Spanberger, and I hope she’s there a while. I believe she’s in her early 40’s.

    Until Spanberger beat Dave Brat in 2018, the VA 7th had been in republican hands ever since the collapse of the conservative democratic Byrd machine in the 1970’s.

  93. 93.

    trnc

    Question – are Native Americans naturally a democratic constituency, or do they feel like they’ve been equally ignored by everyone?

  94. 94.

    Zzyzx

    @hueyplong:

    brain vs heart.

    I have a MS in math and am a programmer so I get the whole number crunching thing. However, I’ve been hurt by the electorate so many times in the past and know that it doesn’t take too much to turn narrow wins into near misses when you’re counting on trends, that I can’t relax until I see the actual PA flip already.

  98. 98.

    NeenerNeener

    I just got off the phone with a Trump-voting former co-worker who claims she saw on the news that Wisconsin had more votes for Biden than actual registered voters in the state.

    I assume her news source was Fox.

    Anybody else heard this?

  102. 102.

    Zzyzx

    @NeenerNeener: How would that even be possible when Trump only got 20k fewer votes than Biden? So basically Trump actually won the state 1.6 million to 50 or something?

    That’s not a Fox or even an OANN thing. That’s a Internet insane person who assumes no one will check the math.

  103. 103.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Steeplejack: I’m a sucker for a good pastrami sandwich, The Bourbon Planet Sub’s is OK, not as good as what I can get in a STL Jewish deli, but damn, it’s pastrami.

  105. 105.

    White & Gold Purgatorian

    @Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:  I understand your feelings, but Biden would be betters served to take the FDR approach to poor, stagnant, red rural areas. Try and lift those areas economically and educationally and encourage people from elsewhere to relocate there by bringing in sources of jobs and ideas. FDR did this in the Deep South with military bases and government agencies.

  107. 107.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Barbara: I believe so.  Either way, they’re mobster shitstains who skip out on their bills and stole from children with cancer.

  113. 113.

    Steeplejack

    @Geminid:

    I saw a tweet from Spanberger late last night (early this morning?) where she was calling it. (“Thanks, Virginia,” etc.) So I guess it’s a done deal.

  115. 115.

    artem1s

    @Woodrow/asim:

    In 2016, Stein paid 3.5 million for a recount.

    um no. donors paid 3.5M for a recount.  a pittance of the 3.5M was used for the recounts and Stein made off with the bulk of it.  Trump will be fleecing the rubes one last time when he finally settles down and starts realizing it’s time to pack it in. he’ll grab whatever is left before he goes and one of the things he’s going to do is start raising money to cover his debts. I’m surprised Jared hasn’t already started asking for defense funds (wink, wink).

  116. 116.

    Kay

    @NeenerNeener:

     

    It’s from this not very bright conservative pundit:

    Kimberley Strassel1) I am legitimately interested/confused by this. I checked, and the top number is indeed Wisconsin’s active registered voter number as of Nov. 1. The bottom is approx. what has been counted. That is a (not feasible) 89% turnout.

    They made this exact same mistake in 2012 in Ohio.

  118. 118.

    rikyrah

    Morning #TeamJustice. We might not flip the Senate, but once @JoeBiden hits 270, we will have “flipped” the DOJ from lawless to lawful,”flipped” the EPA from environment trashing to environment protecting, “flipped” the Dept. of Ed. from anti-public Ed. to pro-public Ed., etc.— Glenn Kirschner (@glennkirschner2) November 5, 2020

  122. 122.

    hueyplong

    @Zzyzx: That explains it.  After over 40 years as an SF Giants fan I got not just 1 but 3 rings (and they were the best team approximately none of those years).  So I’m a little more zen.

    But not so much about Trump.  Getting impatient for PA to be called and am going to blame some of the people on the internet if it doesn’t.

  124. 124.

    NeenerNeener

    @Immanentize: Yeah, it’s bullshit, but I just needed some independent verification. This co-worker said she was all in for Trump’s fascism because Kamala is going to make us pay reparations for slavery. I just have to chalk it up to her being raised in Missouri. I’ll keep the rest of the crazy stuff she said to myself, but they were real howlers.

  126. 126.

    Subsole

    @artem1s:

    I want that fucking family strip searched on the way out the door.

    They are NOT walking off with the nation’s good china so they can hawk it later.

  127. 127.

    Steeplejack

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    True. You can’t really get a bad pastrami sandwich.

    Celebrity Delly (stupid name) is good, but the last sandwich looked like some McJob kid made it while thinking of his mom’s skinny bologna sandwiches.

  129. 129.

    Subsole

    @rikyrah: The most effective lies hold a germ of truth. It can’t ALL be fairytale spun sugar bs.

    Also I assume having a legit polling outfit makes it easier to say “No, see, we’re journalists!” if they ever get dragged into court, in addition to helping sell the bullshit from the “entertainment” division.

  131. 131.

    Baud

    @hueyplong:

    PA won’t be finished today, but I’m hoping Biden officially takes the lead today, because once he has it, I don’t think be loses it.

  132. 132.

    trnc

    @Yutsano: I don’t watch Brian Williams a ton, but I haven’t seen whatever it is that outrages so many people here. If someone could please point to something egregious that he’s said, I’d like to see it.

    As far as his Iraq story, it’s really weird and I don’t know why he told it repeatedly, but I think a 6 month suspension was fair. The story didn’t change anything about the way the Iraq news was reported. I’m not even sure how the story glorified him, if that’s the claim, unless he said he rescued people. I realize it’s a matter of trust, but I’m more interested in what he says during his official job.

  134. 134.

    Zzyzx

    @hueyplong: no one is going to call PA until they actually see the flip. Being very likely of trends hold isn’t the same thing as being certain.

    I do feel better than both the Trump and Biden camps do feel like there will be enough votes.

  136. 136.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Subsole: Yup.  Firehose of crap.  And let’s remember “We get lots of money from Russia!  Derrrrrrrrr!!!! Was it dumb to say that to an interviewer?  I’M ERIC!”

  142. 142.

    Matt McIrvin

    @trnc: It depends. I know some of the big rural blue blotches in the West are Native reservations. But there’s a lot of diversity of opinion.

  144. 144.

    hueyplong

    @Baud: Agreed.  I don’t mean “officially” called.  I mean called by Wasserman.  A Biden lead of nearly any size gets me to the bar.

  153. 153.

    Zzyzx

    @hueyplong: it’s the flip of 2016. Once Trump finally took the PA lead, I knew by non-pandemic counting with the blue areas coming in first that we were doomed.  When and if Biden takes a PA lead, I will then relax. Once it gets past 20-30k, I might even smile.

  154. 154.

    Immanentize

    @Kay: There is such a need for confirmation information and analysis in these people.  Emptywheel is always calling out the right’s easy to correct mistakes.  They have no ethic of responsibility to truth.

  155. 155.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @White & Gold Purgatorian:

    And it was a waste of time and money.

    They simply remain smug in their ignorance, white supremacy and parochialism.

    I’d tell them this:

    Want better lives? Vote for them or move to the places where those benefits are nonjudgmentally offered. Don’t assume that you can remain in your redneck hellhole and sponge off the benefits provided by others while you whine, moan and morally belittle those who are providing those benefits.

  158. 158.

    sixthdoctor

    I hope the first President Biden press conference is him sitting silently at a desk feeding papers from a folder labeled TRUMP EXECUTIVE ORDERS through a shredder…

  159. 159.

    Subsole

    @rikyrah: Here’s hoping we flip them straight into the fullest prosecution America can manage.

    This kind of behavior has to have lasting consequences. It has to.

  160. 160.

    NeenerNeener

    @scribbler: I want to send her a link to Politifact, but as my mother used to say,

    “A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still”

    so it’s probably a waste of my time.

  165. 165.

    Zzyzx

    I’m heading out in 10 minutes or so to do a two hour walk in the dark drizzle. Maybe when I get back, Biden will be ahead in Pa.

  168. 168.

    NotMax

    @Steeplejack

    You can’t really get a bad pastrami sandwich.

    Oh yes, yes you can.

    Shan’t tarnish your morning with specifics, you’ll have to trust me on this.

  171. 171.

    mrmoshpotato

    A joyful perspective.

    Even though I would have preferred a landslide, it is quite satisfying watching Trump die minute by minute.— Hillary Warned Us: Count Every Vote (@HillaryWarnedUs) November 5, 2020

  173. 173.

    Citizen Alan

    @White & Gold Purgatorian:  That only worked because he gave into the demands of Southern senators to exclude black people from nearly every form of relief.. I certainly don’t blame FDR for doing what he had to do in the face of the great depression, but in 2020 that aint gonna fly.

  180. 180.

    hueyplong

    @Citizen Alan: Agree.  The New Deal relied upon southern committee chairmen and FDR made a devil’s bargain.  That’s why Eleanor always did the black outreach.  The southerners hated her and FDR would just shrug and say he couldn’t control her.  Being extra mysogynistic, they were primed for such an explanation.

    Then FDR needed the same assholes for WWII because the actual lib senators tended to be isolationist.

  181. 181.

    John S.

    @Zzyzx: I was going by the AP numbers from earlier this morning. As of right now, the margin is 18,000 for Trump. The Georgia SOS just came out and said there’s only about 25,000 votes left to count — but more than that remain to be processed.

    They are predicting having a final result by noon today. It’s going to be a squeaker for sure.

  182. 182.

    Immanentize

    Georgia follow up — evil GA SoS clearing up the confusion he caused, bringing it in line with the AJC article:

    After saying earlier this AM there are fewer than 25K absentee ballots left, Georgia’s secretary of state has corrected the number to the same count the data shows: About 50K left. That doesn’t include provisionals, military and overseas ballots & ballots that are cured. #gapol https://t.co/fi7deRupx5— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) November 5, 2020

    My advice is, when it comes to GA, listen to raven. That is all …

  186. 186.

    Kay

    Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    ·10m
    New: more counted Wayne Co. (Detroit) ballots push Biden’s lead in Michigan up to 149,390 (2.9%).

    Michigan isn’t going to be that close.

  187. 187.

    Sab

    @Kay: Many years ago, in Ohio,  my husband’s first wife went with him to vote. She wasn’t a registered voter, so she same day registered and then voted for a proposition banning same day registrations. The proposition won, so Ohio doesn’t have same day registration any more.

    My husband is still furious about it. I think her vote confirms her position that maybe allowing same day registrants isn’t a good idea.

  189. 189.

    Darkrose

    @hueyplong: I’d argue that the 2010 team really was the best. 2012 was a very good team, but they got lucky when Fielder and Cabrera got to the WS and went ice cold. 2014 was my favorite team, though: some gritty pitching from the old dudes, timely hitting, stellar defense, and Madison Bumgarner.

  192. 192.

    John S.

    @Immanentize: And with Trump down to an 18,000 vote lead it is entirely possible that Biden wins by a nose — or what here in Florida we would call more than enough for a clear winner to be declared and for Biden to claim supreme victory with a massive mandate.*

    *Based on 2000 results. May not be typical of future outcomes. Some conditions may apply.

    ETA: Yup, saw your update. The AP isn’t so crazy after all.

  194. 194.

    narya

    @Subsole: Having lived in both cities, gotta agree w/ you.

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: When I first moved to Chicago, I ordered a pizza. Which arrived cut crosswise rather than in pie slices. I knew that was not a good sign, and I was right; there are now exceptions, but in general pizza in Chicago is not good. “Stuffed” pizza, for example, means that you have raw dough as a topping–the dough on top of the wad o cheese never bakes. I avoid it like the plague.

  195. 195.

    Kay

    @Sab:

    I’m a make-voting-more-convenient person across the board.

    We have a big kerfuffle here. Two far Righties running for sheriff, one an insurgent Trumpster the other old guard GOP. Old guard won, now Trumpster wants a recount because he says his supporters wrote in his name but did not check the box by “write in” so there’s an undercount.

    This is a legit complaint, apparently, and it’s already settled law that he gets credit for the write in, box checked or not.

  198. 198.

    hueyplong

    While you’re enjoying your GA course, a couple of teaser tweets about the main event:

    Spiro Agnew’s Ghost

    @SpiroAgnewGhost

    ·
    46m

    Yes. When Philadelphia mail in votes are counted we are officially done with Orange Jim Jones. The other states then become bonuses.

    Quote Tweet

    howardfineman

    @howardfineman

    · 9h

    My best vote-counter source in #PA now predicting final #Biden victory margin of 200K – 300K. That’s a tick up from a few hours ago.

  199. 199.

    John S.

    @Kay: We need standard fucking elections. This bullshit of leaving it to each individual state to do their own thing has to stop.

    Everyone needs to follow the same rules across the board. And that includes expanded access and making it easier for people to vote.

  201. 201.

    Sab

    @Immanentize: Weird electoral season with SoSs brining votes. Feels like Turkey Day coming up.

    :-) //  ( nobody does more typos than me. I haven’t typed a sentence in years without “m” s instead of “n” s.

  203. 203.

    John S.

    @hueyplong: No argument here that PA is the main course. But GA is pure sugar. It would be so nice to stick the shiv into Kemp for his bullshit and to score a win in the Deep South just to fuck with all the post-election analysis, which is sure to be horrible.

    If the regular polls were this bad, I don’t know why anyone would even bother with the garbage exit polls.

  205. 205.

    mrmoshpotato

    @narya: To reference Zoidberg from Futurama – Your pizza opinions are bad, and you should feel bad! :)

    (Though I’m not a fan of the tavern cut myself.  I prefer the slices.)

  206. 206.

    NotMax

    @Immanentize

    Not all Costcos carry the same selection but worth a shot.

    The packages of Kirkland brand sliced seasoned roast beef (when in stock, it disappears fast) have become my go-to for sammiches.

  207. 207.

    Geminid

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:  You may have read me saying that yesterday morning. I took it back in an evening post, after I saw Spanberger was down by only  ~550 votes.. My apologies for excess pessimism.  I figured Sean Casten would win reelection. Did he?

  208. 208.

    hueyplong

    @Baud: And, hilariously, moving in the direction of the polling.

    And that’s without the mail-in ballots the postal service “lost.”

  209. 209.

    Gin & Tonic

    Very good point here:

    “If Biden has more votes in Trump than Pennsylvania, Trump was never ‘ahead,’ Biden didn’t ‘catch up.’ Biden is & was always the winner and Trump is/was always the loser. Counting ballots isn’t a baseball game. The time a ballot is counted doesn’t give it some different valence” https://t.co/99FO5amFCP
    — Hamza Shaban (@hshaban) November 4, 2020

  210. 210.

    Kay

    I know this is petty of me but the deference shown to the Trump supporters in this really sticks in my craw.

    No one did this elaborate song and dance to spare the feelings of Democrats in 2000 or 2016 and those elections were won by a hair. I’m sick of it and I’m sick of being threatened with violence or lawlessness by these people. Kowtowing to them isn’t going to work. They just get worse.

  211. 211.

    NeenerNeener

    @NotMax: The real kicker is that she voted for Hillary in 2016 and she had a career in the Navy many years ago, so she should have been offended by the things Trump has said and done about/to the military this year alone. But she seems to have become one of those “IT’S MY MONEY” conservatives even though she probably got screwed by the 2017 tax changes too.

  213. 213.

    MazeDancer

    @NeenerNeener: Please make it very clear to Ms. Mo that she missed the fact of same day registration.

    That number could be 129 to 129000% – doesn’t matter. Same day registration will ALWAYS make number of people who vote greater than 100% of those who were registered at the start of the day.

    Always. Stress always. And possibly the finer points of the use of the Google machine.

  214. 214.

    John S.

    @hueyplong: True. But even with the little stunt DeJoy pulled with the USPS, the results would still be wildly off from the polling.

    Pollsters are thoroughly discredited, and they will not recover from this second black eye any time soon.

  217. 217.

    Baud

    @hueyplong:

    No shit.  The country would be in flames if Dejoy were the deciding factor in the presidential contest.  Fingers crossed, it looks like we’re going to dodge that bullet.

    It could still affect other contests, which is unforgivable, but won’t trigger the same passions.

  218. 218.

    Elizabelle

    If the Georgia Senate races come down to run-offs, (please, please, please — although an outright Dem win is always welcome, too), we could do a masked, contactless meetup down there.

    It may be important to walk the neighborhoods and put informative info on the doors; talk up the importance of voting to those we find out in the yards and neighborhoods.

    With the Spanberger campaign, we did contact-less lit drops to our voters’ doors — no knocking the door, so not a canvass, per se — but it was a pleasure to talk to several of those voters, when they turned out to be in the yard or came to the door once they saw us — usually to announce they had already voted!  Our voters rocked this year.

    We can check for interest a little closer to the date.  I think being out there, and being visible supporters for Rev. Warnock and Jon Ossoff, could help turn out a few votes.

    [I was sad that COVID prevented our meetup in Maine to support Sara Gideon, and even sadder that g-damned furrowed brow Susan Collins won re-election.  Maine!]

  221. 221.

    Jean

    @Geminid: I know!  I’m so happy she won.  The first news was that Freitas has declared victory.  And then absentees came in from Henrico–ta-da!  Spanberger wins.

  222. 222.

    Kay

    @Elizabelle:

    Elissa Slotkin, US House, MI believed the race would be closer than the polling so did lots and lots of events and voter contact with masks and distancing and she won. It can be done.

  223. 223.

    hueyplong

    @John S.: Agree.  Just saying I like to move in the direction of those rosy predictions because I’m excited about Donald Trump, Part The Last, The Final Lameduck Bunker Days.

  225. 225.

    Immanentize

    @Kay: In Mass., The in-person early vote is like a mail in ballot.  You fill out a normal ballot, then seslit and sign an outer envelope.  One is not allowed to put an early in-person ballot in the friggin reader (which was sitting in the corner unplugged).  But, luckily in MA, they do process them when received.  Why not just allow the ballot to be tabulated?  Dunno.

  226. 226.

    dww44

    @OzarkHillbilly: I’ve my own rare bird sighting to relate   I choose to believe that it is a good omen for a Biden-Harris victory.

    For the last decade plus I have fed hummingbirds and the most frequent last sighting of the Ruby Throat is October 8. As it was this year.
    Yesterday at dusk a hummer.  a female I think, flew to the one feeder hanging. outside my breakfast room window.

    This morning I’ve seen her twice  I choose to believe that she has delayed her arduous trek to the Central American tropics just to insure that we prevail  However, it could be that she’s waiting on Etta to get out of her path.

  227. 227.

    Sab

    @Kay: We had an undercount like that a few years back. Precinct committeeman. He got no votes. He challenged because he knew he had voted for himself, and his wife had promised him that she had also. Both write-ins. Sure enough, they hadn’t filled in the write-in bubble.

    I agree with you on the make voting easier. Especially since the mail doesn’t work reliably anymore. My Republican mother used to say “but if you can’t even bother to register…”  But she was a fulltime housewife with a car. Just vote on the way to the grocery.

    Getting to the board of elections to register, and then a month to later to vote when you have two different jobs and no car so use the bus is almost impossibly difficult. People manage, but I don’t know how.

  229. 229.

    Soprano2

    I’m so ready for something to flip so I can quit worrying, because theoretically Trump could still win.

    On another note, the press is already starting in on the “Democrats are such losers” theme. I heard a story this morning on “Morning Edition” about how Democrats need to concentrate more on the economic message and less on cultural issues, as if Joe Biden and all the other Democrats haven’t talked endlessly about creating jobs and saving healthcare and managing COVID better. I’ve finally figured out that what they really mean when they say this is that DEMOCRATS SHOULD JUST QUIT TALKING ABOUT THE CULTURAL ISSUES, PLEASE. Quit talking about racial prejudice, quit talking about misogny, quit talking about religious bigotry, quit talking about discrimination against LBGTQ people, quit talking about how many unarmed black people are killed by the police, and so on. I think when Democrats talk about these things, it blinds reporters to all the other things they’re also talking about. Oh, and up tonight on “All Things Considered”, they visit the border county in Texas that flipped to Trump to find out what that means for Democrats…..gggggrrrrrrr………..They are going to completely forget all the bad things Trump and his administration did, aren’t they?

  231. 231.

    Suzanne

    @trnc:

    Question – are Native Americans naturally a democratic constituency, or do they feel like they’ve been equally ignored by everyone? 

    It’s different for every tribe, of course. But far more blue than red.
    My friend Ginger Sykes Torres has been just incredible this year at turning out the Native vote and organizing Diné for Biden. She also became known as “the queen of Native Twitter” this year.

  232. 232.

    NeenerNeener

    @MazeDancer: At the risk of bringing more filth into this thread she claims Google is shutting down her internet service when she uses it to search for Biden corruption.

    I’m still flabbergasted by the conversation we had this morning. Four years ago she was rational.

  234. 234.

    Splitting Image

    @Soprano2:

    They are going to completely forget all the bad things Drumpf and his administration did, aren’t they?

    They’re not going to forget them, no. But they are going to help bury them down the memory hole.

  235. 235.

    Subsole

    @John S.: That sounds good, but isn’t part of the reason they weren’t more effective at sabotaging the election the fact that we have such a disjointed kludge of state systems?

    Honestly not sure, just going off some hot takes I read.

  236. 236.

    hueyplong

    @debbie: Rudy on G Beck is not Rudy causing trouble at a vote-counting center.  I suggest he spend the entire day with Beck.

  237. 237.

    NotMax

    @Soprano2

    Dems in disarray!

    More sequels than Children of the Corn.

    Wait until there’s an order screw up or delivery delay and a heartland diner runs out of bacon after January 20.

    ;)

  238. 238.

    Subsole

    @John S.: I was wondering about that last night. For all our gnashing of teeth over this and that demographic, why wouldn’t shy voter syndrome affect exit polls, too?

  239. 239.

    Soprano2

    @Kay: I know this is petty of me but the deference shown to the Trump supporters in this really sticks in my craw.

    No one did this elaborate song and dance to spare the feelings of Democrats in 2000 or 2016 and those elections were won by a hair. I’m sick of it and I’m sick of being threatened with violence or lawlessness by these people. Kowtowing to them isn’t going to work. They just get worse.

    I’m totally with you. Did you see that the new youngest member of Congress, a big Trumpie, celebrated his victory with a tweet saying “Cry more, libs”. Can you imagine the press reaction to a newly-elected Democrat doing such a thing? And those mobs yelling “stop the count”, they’re nothing more than mobs. Call them that!

  242. 242.

    Sab

    @Subsole: Yes. Also we are voting for everything at the same time. President down to county sherriff, city council and the zoo and school board levies. The politically active care as much about the local stuff as the president.

    If that zoo levy doesn’t pass, how do we feed the capybaras until the zoo can safely re-open and charge admission?

  244. 244.

    Subsole

    @Kay: Yep. We really, really need to stop babying these people.

    We also need to mercilessly call out every pundit and institution that does, as well.

    And in those terms. Because tgat’s where half this shit started. We coddle conservatives. Ee baby them.

    Make the current paradigm sound unfair to us and enfeebling/emasculating to them, as well as partisan and unprofessional and ultimately self-defeating by the refs.

  245. 245.

    Eolirin

    @Subsole: Nah, what makes it hard to sabotage or hack is that it’s decentralized and uses a variety of technical implementations not that the rules around voting are different everywhere. We could have universal automatic registration, mandated early voting, national felon reinfranchisement,  specific rules to enforce a viable audit trail and other things like that and as long as the way the votes were tallied was local and distributed rather than centralized and the machines used were varied rather than monolithic, we’d still have the same robustness there.

  248. 248.

    Subsole

    @John S.: Yeah. The hell of it is, this black eye may not be deserved if people were lying their ass off abt Yrump support.

    I mean, how do you weight a poll for the possibility that the respondent was dishonest?

  250. 250.

    Subsole

    @Baud: We pulled mad bank this year. Any way to funnel that towards correcting the situation? Like, recounts or ballot sweeps or something?

  252. 252.

    Subsole

    @Soprano2: Yep.

    Remembering gets them disinvited from GOP operative cocktail hour.

    It also invites some pointed and very uncomfortable questions about what they were doing with their platforms as we slid toward the abyss.

    No percentage in memory when you work in the media, I guess.

  256. 256.

    debbie

    Oh, boy. There will be many assassinations by Antifa if Joe is allowed to steal the election.

  262. 262.

    narya

    @Gin & Tonic: this is a war I’m willing to fight; what can i tell you. I will note that the King Arthur recipe of the year– sorta-deep-dish pizza in a cast-iron pan–has been a go-to this year in my house, especially since I asked for a version that uses sourdough discard. And I cut it into pie slices, because that is the only correct way to slice a roundish pie. I will call out Piece and Candlelite, however, as two good options in the city.

  263. 263.

    Sab

    @mrmoshpotato: We used to have guinea pigs in a cage beside the tv. They liked it. They thought we were watching them when we were actually watching tv.

    I love capybaras. Giant guinea pigs.

  265. 265.

    Geminid

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: Great! Casten has a background in clean power, and he has a lot to contribute to energy transition legislation in the new Congress. He brings good experience to the table, like Chrissie Houlahan(D-PA), Elise Slotkin (D-MI) and other members of the Democratic class of ’18.

  268. 268.

    Ruckus

    @Amir Khalid:

    I also imagine that people that employ them like what they say. It’s not that the owners are young, broke college students, they are wealthy, secure, often very conservative bastions of the monied. They want the money to keep coming in, they want the people in office who do not want to give away a dime of that, the people who think that no one with a perceived value of over a million ever should pay a penny of tax. That government should be fair to them and fuck everyone else.

  274. 274.

    J R in WV

    @NeenerNeener:

    I just got off the phone with a Trump-voting former co-worker who claims she saw on the news that Wisconsin had more votes for Biden than actual registered voters in the state.

    I assume her news source was Fox.

    Anybody else heard this?

    Total Bullshit. Google helped me find a Wisconsin voting org site.

    Not certified totals here, but there we go, Biden got 20,535 more votes than Trump. More than half a percentage point  —  0.63% more than Trump.

    Candidate                  Votes                pct.

    Joe Biden(D)             1,630,542         49.57%

    Donald Trump*(R) 1,610,007          48.94%

    Jo Jorgensen(LIB)         38,414          1.17%

    Brian Carroll(ASP)          5,253          0.16%

    Don Blankenship(CST)  5,205           0.16%

    ETA to create this table of data from an ugly list.

  275. 275.

    Gravenstone

    @Kay: WI also has same day voter registration, so the numbers from 11/1 are likely not accurate in terms of registered voters. I don’t know how many may availed themselves of the chance to register Tuesday, but it’s another hole in her ‘argument’.

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