this looks like a proof of life hostage photo https://t.co/OsjezAcLgY
— kilgore trout, tucker carlson’s mailman (@KT_So_It_Goes) November 6, 2020
Today is the day Donald Trump became a former President of the United States.
— Slava Malamud (@SlavaMalamud) November 6, 2020
Alone in the bunker with the sound of tanks getting closer. https://t.co/iF8sv45SMW
— The Hoarse Whisperer (@TheRealHoarse) November 6, 2020
damn I was hoping he was doing something different than every other day of his life https://t.co/EjSRY3huKh
— kilgore trout, tucker carlson’s mailman (@KT_So_It_Goes) November 6, 2020
A smattering of White House and campaign aides tell me they're feeling deflated. Realization settling in that Trump's bid for re-election has likely failed.
Even as the campaign pushes out statement: "This election is not over."
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) November 6, 2020
the beautiful boats betrayed him
— kilgore trout, tucker carlson’s mailman (@KT_So_It_Goes) November 6, 2020
https://t.co/Fa1buK1mvZ pic.twitter.com/yGOxOScG2s
— kilgore trout, tucker carlson’s mailman (@KT_So_It_Goes) November 6, 2020
Please review the t-shirt, Rick.
Life comes at ya fast. https://t.co/o7g4q0vEW9 pic.twitter.com/QITPxywF6V
— The Hoarse Whisperer (@TheRealHoarse) November 6, 2020
Trump’s defeat provides key Republicans with yet another offramp from the craziness. They haven’t yet shown any indication they’ll take it. https://t.co/1QKhVFZbej
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 6, 2020
The Trump campaign would have reason to be pissed if their Russian consultants didn’t work for free https://t.co/ze5bPLOo4X
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) November 6, 2020
Has there been a political figure in recent American history as pathetic, as pitifully faceless, as utterly devoid of any semblance of humanity, of self, of honor or pride as this sad, bleached mannequin right here? https://t.co/89EH0ElxV2
— Slava Malamud (@SlavaMalamud) November 6, 2020
The faces of those who know what’s coming next.
(And are hoping the phone doesn’t ring.) pic.twitter.com/d3zQbN5ORO
— Philippe Reines (@PhilippeReines) November 6, 2020
Everyone is worried about what rage Trump will direct at Democrats.
Narcissists start with their own people. The ones who gave everything. Trump will angrily blame them for not doing enough. https://t.co/vAS56Twvt0
— The Hoarse Whisperer (@TheRealHoarse) November 6, 2020
Jonathan Turley on Fox News said @realDonaldTrump could have the "greatest moment of his career" by giving a concession speech that "brings the nation together."
NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN.
— George Conway (@gtconway3d) November 6, 2020
raven
MSBNC guy is showing how a group in Maricopa decided a Fox news van was smuggling in fake ballots.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
We did it!
We elected the first Catholic president (1960)
We elected the first African American president (2008)
We elected the first Woman vice president (2020)
We
Did
It
Us! You and Me! WE DID IT!
Be proud of yourself and everything you fought for and achieved.
pacem appellant
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Edit: Nevermind. I see what you’re saying. Silly me.
Was JFK that forgettable?cckids
Re: Turley’s statement . . . has he been asleep for the past four years? Dead?
mrmoshpotato
YO GEORGIANS!
BR
Can anyone get these organizations into fundraising threads?
mrmoshpotato
@pacem appellant: He’s talking about JFK. (Threw me too.)
ETA – I take no credit for JFK’s election.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@pacem appellant: that’s what I meant. That why I put the achievements in chronological order.
Thanks, I’ll update to sharpen the point
p.a.
Think (m)any NeverTrumpers will support democratic pluralism going forward, or is it back to ‘best available plutocrats who don’t say the fascism out loud’? I think maybe JRub. That is all.
West of the Cascades
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: We elected the first Jewish vice-president!*
*subsequently overturned by the US Supreme Court.
BC in Illinois
What I did to savor the moment.
Mrs. BC and I pulled out the bottle of 1995 Ben Nevis Scotch — from the land of the ancestral Clan C in the Highlands — and had a toast in front of the St Louis for Biden-Harris poster.
And she’s not really a scotch drinker and I’m not looking forward to coughing up what a new bottle would cost.
Yarrow
Oh, yeah. He’s going to destroy the GOP. As Lindsay said, they’ll deserve it.
mrmoshpotato
Nice mask-wearing by the Trump trash behind Louis. Keep your chin warm, garbage fire!
scav
I rather think the Guard editors are having a bit of a giggle.
Lamé, ducks and presidents: Friday’s best photos
WaterGirl
@BR: I plan to do a Georgia action & fundraising post on Saturday, and I will gladly include those groups in the post.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
somebody tell the internet to recaption that photo of Obama with
Everybody chill the fuck out. Joe’s got this.
and make it a meme
Cermet
So, when will PA update the totals!? Why the wait for even a single update? As Charlie Brown would say “UGGGGGH!”
NotMax
To the tune of “Ed Sullivan” from Bye Bye Birdie.
Two seventy
Two seventy
We’re gonna pass two seventy
.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@West of the Cascades: YES!
Leto
@raven: nothing but the best brains with these people.
BR
@WaterGirl:
Awesome!
Sister Golden Bear
It may be pre-mature, but I just had a really good cheesesteak for lunch.
Cheryl Rofer
I keep wondering what world Jonathan Turley lives in. DougJ has a lot of fun with him in his New York Times Pitchbot Twitter account.
Kattails
Since the chance of Trump giving any sort of concession speech is non-existent, I’d settle for him getting into AF 1 and flying off to someplace else. We can try him in absentia. What I really want is the kind of trials that bring every stinking felony, every malfeasance, every impeachable act out in front of the public.
natem
@p.a.:
I keep trying to muster the energy to care about which of these Project Lincoln types will stand by Team Dem, but every other day it seems Tom Nichols or Rick Wilson tweets out some inane BS about not scaring WWC voters, and I just…can’t.
raven
@Leto: It was pretty funny, he walked past a dude who was strapped and said “boogie boy, ah”!
Calouste
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: Also, the first President speaking English as a second language (1836).
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Cheryl Rofer: I suspect that, like Lindsey Graham, Turkey has figured out he’s burned every chance to get on camera anywhere else, and without that magic gaze, he’ll wither away….
Chyron HR
SURRENDER DOROTHY
piratedan
I really hate the idea that the media is scared to call the election…. I understand the idea that no one wants to make a mistake, but the idea to leave us all twisting in the wind when the results and trends are apparent simply allow for Trump to sponsor additional fuckery.
It’s not like TRUMP gives a fuck about you, he never has, he insults you regularly, castigates your integrity at every waking moment.
So, get some big boy pants, call what is obvious and help us shut this down before someone starts driving vehicles into counting centers armed with automatic rifles are start shooting people.
You want to be scared… be scared about thatl, because that’s exactly what these dipshits are counting on.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
Mike in NC
I think we’re going to watch “Downfall” again tonight.
Zzyzx
Georgia just went to a 4K lead!
p.a.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: like the Nazgûl after the ring melted.
Mary G
Chyron HR
@natem:
Oh, so they’re joining the Bernie wing of the party.
Splitting Image
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch:
And the second.
Joking aside, Kamala Harris becoming the next VP is a big Biden deal. Sobriety for women across the country will be optional for the next week or so at least.
Baud
@Zzyzx: That’s awesome. That’ll be hard to overcome.
LurkerNoLonger
Regarding that penis with a beard Ted Cruz, Trump called his wife ugly and his father a murderer, why stand behind him at all now that Trump has lost?
Oklahomo
@scav: That photo of the guy feeding the ducks is nothing short of awesome.
Kent
Technically speaking, PA, GA, NV, and AZ aren’t really going slower than any other state.
My own state of WA is is still counting ballots and is at 93%. NY is at 84% done. CA is at 77% and MD is at 70% done, for example. It’s just that no one really pays attention to any other state if the top of the ticket race isn’t close.
And frankly they wouldn’t be paying attention to PA, GA, NV, or AZ right now either if the electoral college wasn’t in the balance.
Kent
It is a HUGE fucking deal. It is the next to last barrier to break.
piratedan
@Zzyzx: per the count monitoring website, GA is complete with a 4200+ lead for Biden.
p.a.
If team D can even raise 50% of this cycle’s $$$ for the midterms! I know there wasn’t enough bang for the buck in Senate races, but H Dean is right: make them defend everywhere. Put $ into the state apparatuses (apparati if it comes from Latin, for the sticklers).
Death Panel Truck
Goddamned snowflakes.
WaterGirl
@piratedan: It’s the inconsistency that’s the issue.
Either the media calls the races when it becomes obvious, or they don’t. But this bullshit about not calling because they don’t want to upset the president? It’s bullshit. But i repeat myself.
In future elections, I think the media should NOT be the callers of elections. Wait until the votes are counted.
In this new world we live in, all bets are off. Polls aren’t accurate, not everyone votes the way you expect.
I hope this is the last election where the networks get to run the show.
different-church-lady
…slowly, without making eye contact.”
trollhattan
@LurkerNoLonger:
I think we all know the answer: Ted Cruz is a toady and sycophant, who also thinks he deserves to be president.
The Gohmert pic cost me ten IQ points, points I can’t really spare.
PsiFighter37
My theory as to why this race hasn’t been called – MSM guzzling on the last bit of Trump year for their ratings. Fuck those assholes. Even a political hobbyist like myself would have called the race this morning.
Tony Jay
However annoying it’s going to be for Democrats to have the Pustule popped and leaking all over the good china for the next few months, it’s going to be far, far worse for Republicans. He’s going to thrash and squeal and emote and lash out with zero regard for the terribly important future prospects of the politicians and the Party that just failed him so very badly. Democrats aren’t responsible for him, the MSM can start treating him with the distain he deserves, but Republicans can’t really defend themselves from his tantrums without saying the harsh but accurate words that will then definitely be used against them by even crazier primary challengers in two, four or six years when the Trump-addled GOP electorate gets asked who they want to see representing White Supremacy on their behalf.
Oh yeah, things to savour indeed.
MisterForkbeard
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: What IS Decision Desk HQ, anyway?
Sebastian
@piratedan:
They are milking for ratings and 4pm in LA/7pm NY for party timing.
I AM FINE WITH THAT. Hahaha
Donnie Fuckface and his gang of shysters is freaking out as it is. Let. Them. Suffer.
I am enjoying every second of it. Let it build up, we deserved it man!
WaterGirl
@Baud: I thought we had already won Georgia. They are still counting?
(smacks forehead with hand)
edit: never mind. my question was answered above.
gsp
You folks have way more expertise on this stuff but I can’t help but wonder if it’s not a good thing that their energies are caught up on this. Worried about what happens between now and January 20 and the destruction they can still cause. I say let them fight this losing battle all the way until January. Each passing day crying and fighting is one less of misery they can bring upon the country and planet.
LurkerNoLonger
@trollhattan: I don’t understand it. But then again I’m not a republican or a republican politician.
HumboldtBlue
@Yarrow:
They’re already at each other’s throats and now the GOP has an infestation of Qanon to deal with.
James E Powell
I switched back to FOX for a few minutes because I can’t abide Claire McCaskill. It’s the Five. I’ve heard of this, but never seen it before.
Most of these people are just flat out lying about the state of race. Juan Williams admits they have not produced anything like evidence. But they talk about the court cases as if they are not only well founded by pretty likely to change outcomes.
The Democrats they describe do not even exist.
Some guy in a v neck sweater: The Democrats call him a nazi. If you think some one is a nazi, you would definitely cheat to defeat a nazi. It just makes sense.
A guy in a suit: There’s no evidence of widespread fraud, but you don’t really need widespread fraud.
Sebastian
@gsp:
It’s the Downfall bunker. And QAnon and Repubs are tearing each other apart. It’s all going down in flames!
WaterGirl
@MisterForkbeard: I googled that earlier. Seemed to be a Vox thing.
mad citizen
I don’t get it. AZ and GA (16 EVs) = VICTORY. Right?
rjnerd
I just figured out what all the places that do the push polling, and provide “fundraising services” and other ways that the republicans get their grift on.
Now that the election is over they have returned to their regular grifts. By 3:15 today I got 16 spam calls. The return of “Rachel from card services”, “Final chance to renew your car warranty” and “Marriott”. I even got one of the “raising money for the Police” conmen. There were 4 that having called, didn’t have resources to connect me with a talker.
I decided to test it, on the “Marriott free trip” guy I said “I see that the republicans are done with you, and you are back to your usual script”. There was a bit of a chuckle as he thanked me for my time.
WaterGirl
@mad citizen: Georgia hasn’t been called yet.
mad citizen
@HumboldtBlue: Per the Reuters article on, when, Monday (years ago this week), I think our side should start writing “Russia-backed QAnon”
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@James E Powell: 5 stages of grief on Fox
denial
anger
lying
depression
black out drunk
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Zzyzx: Heh, with -3552 votes left to count!
To clarify, yes that’s negative 3552.
trollhattan
What a squeaker Georgia is. I need a new hobby.
Psychologically, a win there would plant a meaningful Democrat[sic] flag in the South. “See, you can do this too.”
Maybe not for Alabama.
Cheryl Rofer
There hasn’t been anywhere near enough said about it yet, but I am so happy that Kamala is going to be Vice President. There’s the three-fer: woman, Black, Indian. What hasn’t been said enough about is her relative youth. Three old men: Biden, Trump, Pence. (I think Biden would agree with the characterization if not the company.) And one much younger, joyful, dancing woman. She is going to make an enormous difference in our lives and in national politics.
Citizen Alan
@HumboldtBlue: I hope they literally end up eating each other. Like starving feral hogs walked into a pen together.
David ?Booooooo!? Koch
@MisterForkbeard: here’s a nice short story on them (link)
Baud
@WaterGirl: I assume it’s going to recount, but I can’t imagine it’ll make that much different.
Weren’t they still waiting on provisionals and military?
NotMax
Don’t know about y’all but I could live quite happily without hearing the words “Maricopa county” ever again.
Mart
@mrmoshpotato: My thought too. Everyplace I go to on business has had 100% mask requirement, requests remote collaboration, or refuses visitors. Put on a fucking mask Goober Gohmer.
trollhattan
@mad citizen:
Yes, either one puts him above 270. So would Nevada but they seem to be taking their sweet time.
Peale
@mad citizen: Georgia is going to go to recount. AZ is, well, kind of iffy and they aren’t done counting. It is possible that Decision Desk called them too early. Trump needs 58% of the remaining 240K votes in Arizona. He’s been getting 57.7% today. AZ won’t be called until all the votes are in at this rate.
trollhattan
@NotMax:
What, you no copa so good?
Zzyzx
At some point they do have to call this right?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Trump, “if that 23% in CA were for me that would flip California, it’s still in doubt!”
Matt McIrvin
@West of the Cascades:
Pity about the guy’s subsequent career.
Quinerly
@HumboldtBlue: loving this shit. The longer this goes on there will be more infighting. Right now I’m in no hurry for the networks to call it. The numbers are there. They ain’t changing.
Peale
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: We hereby claim California, New York and New Fundland (which I think is Stamford, CT. It was a weird tweet.)
piratedan
@Baud: I think the provisional deadline is essentially now, as would be the deadline for receiving military ballots…
now it doesn’t mean that they don’t have ballots, but the counting site is stating that there isn’t an active backlog of ballots to be counted… the big unknown naturally is, how many of these ballots exist.
Peale
It’s hard to write up election post-mortems when the damn process just won’t DIAF already.
dr. bloor
@mrmoshpotato: The ground game Stacey Abrams et al are going to unleash in Georgia over the next two months is going to be epic. They’re gonna wish that all they had to deal with was another visit from Uncle Billy.
MattF
@Chyron HR: Funny you should mention that. There’s a railroad bridge over the Beltway that had ‘Surrender Dorothy’ graffiti— but it’s been changed.
Matt McIrvin
@Zzyzx: Nobody in the media HAS to call it.
I suspect they’re thinking of waiting until Trump winning is actually mathematically impossible, even if 100% of outstanding ballots went to him. But at the rate things are going, that could be such a long time, given that Trump’s avenues for a plausible victory are already gone, that it does start to seem absurd.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Peale: Trump “And the great state of Wakanda. Did you know I got more of the African American vote than Abraham Lincoln?”
frosty
@WaterGirl: OT, but I wanted to let you know that I’m really enjoying the new Rotating Tags. Seems to me they showed up a week or two ago? Anyway, you and John picked some good ones!
Jinchi
Alaska has been listed as only 46% complete with a current total of fewer than 200,000 votes counted for 2 days now. That’s why neither the presidency nor the Senate has been called even though the current tally is 2-1 Republican.
James E Powell
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I’m confused, but if that’s the end of the counting, I’m completely happy with that total.
Jinchi
@Kent: It’s even odds that Kamala will be the first woman president.
Quinerly
30 mins ago
Biden now leads Trump in Georgia by more than 4,000 votes, according to the latest results reported by the AP
WaterGirl
@rjnerd: Am I on drugs, or did you post something similar in a previous thread? I really hope you did, otherwise it’s deja vu all over again.
MattF
@Matt McIrvin: It’s fear. Why poke the tiger when he’s going to disappear soon?
WaterGirl
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch: What about the ones for whom blackout drunk is their normal state?
guachi
Looking at County level data in Pennsylvania the county where Biden’s share of the two-party vote dropped the most was Philadelphia County from 84.30% to 81.53%. Before the final tally from Philadelphia, Trump netted 46,837 votes as Biden’s total dropped 16,765 from 2016 and Trump’s increased 16,765.
The counties that really did it for Biden in flipping the state were heavily suburban:
Cumberland (suburban west of Harrisburg) +4.01% +7,010 net votes
Chester (suburban west of Philadelphia) +3.42% +25,394 votes
Dauphin (Harrisburg) +2.77% + 8415 votes
Luzerne (SW of Scranton) +2.67% +4571 votes
Monroe (SE of Scranton) +2.63% +4273 votes
York (suburbs S of Harrisburg) +2.55% +2067 votes
Lackawanna (Scranton) +2.48% +6024 votes
Montgomery (suburb of Philadelphia) +2.01% +37,285 votes
Delaware (suburb of Philadelphia) +1.70% +17,073 votes
Bucks (suburb of Philadelphia) +1.63% +12810 votes
Allegheny (Pittsburgh) +1.03% +20,290 votes
Biden also flipped one County – Northampton and netted 6317 votes from there.
Matt McIrvin
AZ and GA are probably both going to end up in recount territory, so nobody can call the whole election based on them.
It’s got to be Pennsylvania. Biden is going to win Pennsylvania–there’s just no way Trump can get it that isn’t laughable. But they’re counting the ballots so slowly (in part because of interference from the Trump campaign) that it’s going to be a very long time before they can officially declare it impossible.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@MattF: how close could one of the planes with a trailing banner (I know they have a name– I’m drawing a blank) how close can they get to the White House, how much do they cost and how quick can we get a gofundme going?
WaterGirl
@trollhattan:
4,240 is the number of votes Biden is ahead.
What the hell is 2,702?
edit: wild guess? is 2,702 the recount cutoff?
KSinMA
@Mary G: Done!
cain
I think Tom and Steve Schmidt are going to continue to support Democrats – but they will be doing their level best to push the party more centrist.
ETA: OMG!!! I made the 100th comment!!!!!!!!!! ????
?BillinGlendaleCA
I’m not feeling good about AZ, Biden’s lead while substantial is eroding steadily. Georgia is close with now a unknown number of votes remaining. I’ll hold off on the happy dance.
Curtis
@WaterGirl: Change in net votes for Biden I think.
Jinchi
Actually, he’d still be about a million votes short.
John S.
@Sebastian: My insane brother is telling me about some crazy Qanon shit where there are secret watermarks on ballots as part of the worlds greatest sting operation.
Some nutter named Steve Pieczenik is allegedly peddling this stuff along with Pizzagate and other Qanon fare.
Calouste
@Cheryl Rofer: Harris is only 5 years younger than Pence, even though she looks at least 20 years younger.
mesmer a la carte
@MattF: I adored that for years when I lived in DC. More so because it framed the elaborate Mormon temple in the background, which is very Oz like in its architecture.
Kent
They can have all the time and space that they want back in their safe places. Meanwhile we have work to get started.
WaterGirl
@Cheryl Rofer: I had a similar thought when I watched Gretchen Whitmer (for the first time) giving her speech before Barack and Joe came out to speak at the Michigan rally.
She was so energetic or so real and she laughs with joy, just as Kamala does. Not the same laugh, a similar spirit. You don’t see the old guys up there laughing.
It will turn politics on its ear.
I did love Obama’s little chuckle when he said something he thought was funny.
piratedan
@WaterGirl: that’s the number of votes added to reach that new total….
Jeffro
I saw that “betrayed by the boat brigade” tweet and started LOLing while fixing dinner.
My son was like, “what did he do now?”
sigh
Build Back Better and also Bring Back Boring
Matt McIrvin
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Biden has still won even without AZ or GA, because he’s got PA (and NV, but he’s over the top with just PA). Those other states just aren’t going to provide any opportunity for an early call.
MisterForkbeard
@Matt McIrvin: Eh… GA will be in recount territory. But not enough to actually matter.
These recounts typically change a few hundred votes at most. Biden’s lead there will be significantly higher than that. Who knows about AZ.
PA, though… PA shouldn’t be a problem. I think Biden’s supposed to end up with about a 80-90k vote lead if things keep progressing. Then there’s potentially 100k provisionals at most.
Provisionals will probably tack heavily towards Biden, given that they’re either people who got caged/challenged, or who had requested mail-in ballots and switched to in-person for some reason. But even if Trump got 80% of them he wouldn’t win.
The whole thing REALLY illustrates the stupidity of the Electoral College as opposed to a popular vote, given that Biden got massively more votes than Trump did overall and that we’re focusing on .01% of the total votes to decide this thing. But in regards to this election, Biden’s got it.
WaterGirl
@Baud: I thought I saw 100% counted on here several times today for Georgia. Silly me, I thought 100% meant that all the votes had been counted!
?♀️?♀️?♀️?♀️
Kent
PA is the whole ball game. He wins PA and we are done.
cain
Obama had amazing comedic timing – the man was multi-talented. His WH correspondence dinner stuff is just rip roaring hilarious.
Jeffro
@Yarrow: the things he’s going to throw at the GOP…ooo ooo ooo!
I am already picturing Ted Cruz whining and going “but…but…I came in second last time! I licked his boots clean every (sob) day! It’s MY TURNNNNNwahhhhhhh!” and frankly, it’s making my night.
Roger Moore
The helicopters may not be laughing, but the boats are.
Kent
I think 100% means they are 100% through their stacks of ballots that were already cleared for counting.
There will still be weeks worth of dealing with provisional ballots, disputed ballots, and such one by one. That’s the case in every single state.
cain
@Kent:
He’s going to win AZ – I’m sure of it. Nobody is projecting that Trump is going to overcome that lead.
Baud
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
The GA lead seems solid, even if it’s close.
What’s AZ down to? Last I heard, which was a while ago Trump wasn’t hitting his numbers.
Capri
@WaterGirl: They have all of America’s eyes glued to their shows. I’d wager that’s the reason they’re happy to let this take as long as possible, not because of anyone’s feelings.
WaterGirl
@frosty: Thanks. I asked John to go through them with me several times and he kept ignoring me :-) so I finally called him up and asked if I could just pick 40 or so, and he said okay.
No one else seems to notice them, but as the most frequent nominator, of course you would notice. I love the new ones!
cain
The best part is that the GOP is not republican is – Trump is the party now – not them. He’s stole it away from them – so I expect the GOP with their stoic silence is going to get shanked by their party constituents.
Jeffro
@HumboldtBlue: I saw that too! SO AWESOME!!
Have at it, QAnon and trumpov backstabbers! May the best cray-cray win the day, or something like that.
low-tech cyclist
But it’s too late to say you’re sorry,
how would I know, why should I care?
Jinchi
No, the current count gives Biden an advantage of 4,240 votes. The previous release had him ahead 1,538. So his position improved by 2,702 votes.
I think the rule for recount in Ga is a difference of 0.5% which would be something like 25,000 votes.
HumboldtBlue
@mad citizen:
Betty just noticed this retweet from Sarah Cooper and I think it’s spot on.
piratedan
@Baud: he actually has been hitting his numbers, Biden’s lead is less than 40K with roughly 225k left to count. TBH, a couple of good groups for Biden make it unlikely, but all of the most recent dribs and drabs have been good for Trump…
Jeffro
@David ?Booooooo!? Koch:
Let’s see that would be, in order, Ingraham, Dobbs, all of them, Carlson, Pirro?
Peale
@guachi: Yep. We need to do more breakdowns like this rather than just looking at the NYT and CNN exit polls and declare that Biden just “Lost”. He was never going to “win” 100% of the suburban vote. He just needed more of it. And he seems to have gotten it where he needed it.
Someone posted a tweet up about how the Biden/Obama/Clinton strategy failed because immigrant voters in Massachusetts voted for Trump more than they had in the past. Ergo – no more “Moderates”. I’m like – but I’m guessing there wasn’t a lot of outreach in MA for those votes because they weren’t needed. Its possible when all is said and done that the “suburban” strategy worked because it produced votes for him in PA.
I was looking at the Milwaukee returns earlier thinking that that is what put him over. While there was some increased turnout in Milwaukee proper (20K more votes overall, but not all for biden), most of Biden’s gains came in the suburbs there as well. He cut in to Trump’s ’16 margins in almost every suburb.
Mart
@Jinchi: It’s better than even odds that Kamala will be the second woman presidential candidate who is trashed by repubs based on nothing non-stop for the next four years; and then the cable news will pile on.
natem
@Roger Moore:
Are you sure? Have you checked their cradenzas?
Matt McIrvin
@trollhattan: Virginia is the South! I know people deny this, but the capital of the Confederacy was there. Blue state since 2008.
Jeffro
@NotMax: unless it’s in a rerun of Raising Arizona ;)
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Matt McIrvin: I don’t think PA or NV is in the bag either.
WaterGirl
@Curtis: Change in net votes for Biden, since when? And based on how many new votes? Without knowing those things, that number would be meaningless.
I should go do something else. I am getting cranky. We’re not going to know anything today, are we?
Quinerly
@cain: I’m with you. We have AZ. Plus, Fox told us we had AZ what seems like weeks ago. ?
Sebastian
@John S.:
Redirect him. Have him hunt Russians and mobsters
JPL
GA proves that every vote counts.. I’m so excited.
cain
@West of the Cascades:
Sorry, but I’m just into Lieberman – his dissenting vote against the public option and his general grumpiness just irritates me. I will be happy to have a Jewish president or Vice President! We could use a non-Christian one for once!
James E Powell
@Peale:
I’ve seen a lot of post-mortems already, nearly all of which are “Democrats did it wrong!”
I thought Cong. Abigail Spanberger was out of line, but will put it down to post-election day frayed nerves. Cong. Ocasio-Cortez responded and I agreed with her point.
I also don’t like the “defund the police” slogan but Cong. Spanberger seems not to understand that if that slogan did not exist, the Republicans would have used a different one, equally hysterical.
p.a.
Anyone familiar with the Cuban/Florida/Republican nexus? Do they want us to invade Cuba for them? Return their property? Doesn’t that generation’s people ever die? Bad feelings handed down? Just want to keep the island’s population poor out of spite?
WaterGirl
@Matt McIrvin: But he doesn’t actually have PA yet, right?
LuciaMia
Sweet Jesus. Starting to feel like I’ll end up in the hospital bed next to Soonergrunt before then.
Kent
In my limited experience, recounts usually uncover uncounted ballots. Either ballots that completely escaped counting the first time. Or that were scanned but for which there was no entry read for president because the ink was too faint or something. They almost never flip a ballot from one candidate to the other (incorrectly counted).
When a recount happens and uncounted ballots start turning up here and there they generally appear in roughly the same percentages as the overall vote count. So they’ll be finding both uncounted Trump ballots and uncounted Biden ballots.
Furthermore, to the extent that there are quantities of uncounted ballots they are almost always in the larger jurisdictions. If you are a county of 1000 voters, you aren’t likely to lose 500 ballots. You will notice. But if you are a county of 500,000 voters you might not well notice a missing 500 ballots. Since larger jurisdictions generally tilt more blue, it is probably greater than a 50/50 chance that a recount will increase Biden’s lead.
In any event, for a recount to flip a 4,000 vote win they would have to find something like 20,000 uncounted ballots in only the most pro-Trump counties and none in the pro-Biden counties. That ain’t happening.
Obdurodon
@piratedan: Agreed. If the media would just call NV, which is *freaking obvious* by now, GA and PA wouldn’t even matter. Then it would be much harder for Trump supporters to keep challenging the outcome. That the media haven’t done so makes them complicit.
Baud
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Ralston should retire if we lose NV.
Quinerly
@Kent: ?
WaterGirl
@Kent: Okay, I am going to go bang my head against the wall now. Or, alternatively, I will go walk on the treadmill.
zhena gogolia
@Cheryl Rofer:
I have a warm spot in my heart when I think of her as VP. She was my #1 for Pres, but this is really good too!
zhena gogolia
@NotMax:
Amen.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: AZ is 39,400 for Biden, but with 226,840 remaining to be counted. Biden’s lead has been dropping for the past 12 hours or so and Trump is getting close to hitting his mark.
Peale
@Kent: What I’m worried about is something like “Oh look, the county clerk in Waukesha found 6,000 Trump ballots under her bed. Silly her.”
Kent
Why would we lose NV? The lead there is larger than the one in PA and the trend count is roughly in the same direction (pro-Biden) with mostly Clark County votes left outstanding.
Quinerly
@WaterGirl: I am assuming by all the questions that you don’t have TV or aren’t following the tallies on any on line sites? Treadmill will help. ?
Mallard Filmore
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I am rather sure, not close enough for Trump to see it. On the south (Potomac River) side is a nice big open park, but also the approach path of commercial air traffic for DCA airport. On the north side are commercial buildings that will block most or all the view.
Jinchi
If you scroll through the Decision Desk’s tweets (which is where this number came from), it makes more sense. They keep a running tally, the (Biden – Trump) margin and the change from their previous report.
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324834615652134918
FelonyGovt
Hey, what’s going to happen to Space Force??
Quinerly
@zhena gogolia: couldn’t agree more. She was my first choice too.
guachi
@Peale:
Even counting the outstanding votes I think Biden will actually end up with a net loss out of Philadelphia.
In PA, at least, it seems clear it was suburbs, suburbs, suburbs. Example – Biden increased his 2-party share in Cumberland from 40.5% to 44.6% and even accounting for the massive increase in turnout he netted 7000 votes.
ETA: Cumberland County is 94.4% white.
Baud
@Kent:
I agree. I’m confident about NV, from what I’ve heard. I actually also think GA holds with a 4000 vote lead.
randy khan
@piratedan:
Right now I think it’s really Trump who’s twisting in the wind.
Zzyzx
The longer it goes on, the more it’ll inspire Trump to mess with it.
Yarrow
@HumboldtBlue: The future of the GOP is QAnon. It’s Tea Party on steroids and there are already a couple of Q people heading to Congress.
MattF
Alex Jones heckled by a flat-earther.
MisterForkbeard
@Kent: Right. This is where I’m at in GA. There will be a recount. The recount will not matter.
PA will probably be similar, but I expect Biden’s ultimate vote lead there to be at least 20k. So a recount might technically be mandated but won’t DO anything.
Kent
Well of course. That is as certain as the sun coming up tomorrow.
But they tried the same thing for 8 years against Michelle Obama and it only made her more popular. Talent and charisma wins out. The Fox News faithful hate Michelle Obama with a fury. But 80% of the rest of the country like her. I’m confident that Harris has both the talent and charisma to win over the country. And she will certainly have the megaphone to do so as well. She will be able to get on any TV camera she wants.
LuciaMia
Was looking forward to Biden at 8PM. Has that been scrapped?
Quinerly
@LuciaMia: no.
Jinchi
I think it’s just cardboard cutouts and stolen Star Trek paraphenelia, so I guess Pence could pack it up when he leaves.
Peale
@James E Powell: Yep. Its what we do. You’d think that no one actually did vote for us. The reason that the NYT goes on Cletus Safaris to find out why Trump voters voted for him is that in the absence of that, Democrats will go on their own speculative Cletus safaris by default.
HumboldtBlue
@Mart:
Nope, not this time. First, they don’t have 30 years to smear her and the next four years will see the focus on Biden and congress and while Kamala will play an outsized role in the administration the right wing smear merchants will be too busy trying to smear and delegitimize Biden and before you know it it’s primary season and Harris cruises to the nom.
zhena gogolia
So some people here seem to think Biden might not win?
Puddinhead
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I saw just over 213000 left, so Trump needs to hit 59.2% to pull even.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
No, we all think he’ll win. But we want it to be official and certain, rather than almost certain.
LuciaMia
Especially those styrofoam rocks.
Dan B
@different-church-lady: The most Googled phrase in the White House today,” Which countries don’t have extradition treaties?”
(HT my Mike guy.)
Matt McIrvin
@?BillinGlendaleCA: In PA, Trump currently would have to win 55.8% of the 112,948 outstanding ballots left in the state. There’s every reason to believe that those ballots lean Democratic on the whole. In recent counting he’s been averaging 36.3%–that’s actually up from earlier in the day, but the margin he needs keeps getting tougher.
Quinerly
@Baud: ?
Nora Lenderbee
@LurkerNoLonger: His moustache seems to be growing out of his nose.
MattF
@MattF: Link got messed up. Try
https://twitter.com/bri_sacks/status/1324831801278259200
NotMax
@guachi
Doubtful, as it has played out that PA is generally following a “first in, last out” methodology. Ballots counted today are among those received weeks before election day, when Ds were being encouraged and Rs actively discouraged from voting by mail.
Nora Lenderbee
@scav: They included the drag queen photo just for the sake of the pun. Which is excellent.
Kent
It ain’t going to matter because Biden is winning PA. By the time some GA recount is finished he will be halfway through the transition planning process
But yeah, that ain’t happening either. Ballots are tracked like police evidence. If you were to show up with a batch of random ballots they would be uncountable. They are meticulous about that so you don’t accidentally count the same box of ballots twice (or on purpose).
Also, the votes are sourced down to the exact precinct so they would already know if there are some missing.
glc
People are getting ahead of themselves … . The issue in PA is the unknown distribution in the provisionals. Some patience seems to be called for.
At the moment everything is looking favorable but there are reasons why they haven’t been called. I thought I’d wake up to an announcement today (I wake late). Tomorrow, I hope.
Quinerly
I think NV might be called for Biden within next 2 hrs.
hilts
I second Eric Holder in wishing Louie Gohmert good luck with his asparagus.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/04/eric-holder-disses-louis-gohmert-good-luck-with-your-asparagus/360348
Curtis
I’m just annoyed that Allegheny county and the rest of Philly won’t hurry up and drop their counts. I know why they’re taking so long, but I’m impatient!
suzanne
@NotMax:
I lived there for — HOLY SHIT — 32 years…. and I feel this so hard.
Peale
@zhena gogolia: I think he Wins PA. GA he will win as well unless, as I said earlier, there’s some kind of Wisconsin trick where some county finds 5,000 lost trump ballots somewhere.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Puddinhead: About 227k and now it’s about 58% for Trump to even it up, he’s been exceeding that with the recent updates.
Talking about AZ.
germy
Suzanne
What a year to move from Maricopa to Allegheny. Hot damn.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@zhena gogolia: I’m not ready to do a happy dance.
randy khan
@Matt McIrvin:
To quote some McCain spokesperson in 2008, Northern Virginia isn’t real Virginia, so it’s not all South in Republican-speak.
Tony Jay
I suppose there’s also a possibility that the next few months will reveal who actually had physical control of the kompromat that’s kept Republican pols in line for the last few years. If it’s Trump he might feel the urge to release stuff to punish Republicans who he considers disloyal, if it never left the cold, dead hands of Russian Intelligence then all he’d have is gossip and innuendo, which won’t be as destructive but still has the capability to singe a few merkins.
The uncertainty would certainly explain why the likes of Graham and Cruz have shuffled back in line.
Quinerly
Now, this is interesting about the screwed up polling.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/study-considers-a-link-between-qanon-and-polling-errors/ar-BB1aLLrA?ocid=ob-fb-enus-1541512262291
Barbara
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Current margin in AZ is 39,400.
Looking at Pinal County, if the distribution of remaining votes is identical to what it has been thus far, Trump would net around 1600 vote. In Yavapai, it would net Trump around 2600 votes. Total would be 4200, with margin of 35,200.
Just based on AP data I find on TPM, there might be as many as 172,000 votes from Maricopa County left to be processed. Thus far, Biden has led Trump by around 52%-47%. To overcome a margin of 35,200, Trump would have to win at least 63% of the remaining ballots (or around 109,000 to Biden’s 63,000). It is by no means impossible, but it is unlikely. It is more likely that the distribution will be closer to what it has been.
I agree that they should not have called Arizona so soon, but seriously, there is no impact of an “early” media call other than the possibility that the media organization will have egg on its face.
Quinerly
@germy: only the best!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Matt McIrvin: As I said, I’ll wait on the happy dance.
guachi
@NotMax: Biden needs to net 47,000 votes from Philadelphia. He can’t do it with what’s left to count from regular ballots. He can only do it from provisional ballots or whatever ballots arrived late that haven’t been counted yet.
James E Powell
Looking at the whole day, NV has given us almost nothing. PA has been dribbling out small results, some of which go Trump’s way, keeping Joe’s margin down.
There is some gap or some steps between the processing the ballots and reporting the results. I know they are overworked and under pressure, but PA has posted fewer than 500 ballots in the last hour. For the whole state.
Quinerly
@Barbara: and Fox calling AZ so early really enraged Trump. Trump called Murdoch and tried to get him to retract it. I just love this. Biden has AZ. I’m not worried.
debbie
On my walk tonight, I noticed that the two Trump supporters had taken down their signs. He’s forcing his own supporters to disavow him.
Matt McIrvin
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I see Trump hitting his numbers in AZ and he may well flip it.
In PA, I don’t think so. The necessary margin of outstanding votes he needs now is almost identical to AZ, but he’s not getting anywhere near that even with some of the provisionals from red counties coming in now. And 40,000 of the remaining provisionals are from Philadelphia.
Barbara
@James E Powell: Biden’s margin has grown steadily throughout the day in Pennsylvania, and — though still small — doubled in Georgia over what it was this morning. It’s now 15,000 in Pennsylvania and 4000 in Georgia.
Martin
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Actually 23% wouldn’t be enough.
Jinchi
@zhena gogolia: I’m totally confident Biden will win.
Barbara
@Matt McIrvin: Did you do what I did and run the numbers? Or are you doing virtual “eyeballing”?
This is driving me crazy. Signing off.
zhena gogolia
Don’t tell me after all this agony and ecstasy that Trump is going to remain in office.
Suzanne
@Barbara: Pinal and Yavapai are pretty solidly red. Yavapai includes Prescott, while Pinal has Globe. Not bastions of liberalism. Maricopa has Phoenix and almost all of the suburbs, which range from pretty darn blue (Tempe) to ruby-fucken-red (Sun City). Pima is dominated by Tucson, which is blue.
I am not confident we hold Arizona. But I also have PTSD.
Captain C
@LurkerNoLonger:
My guess on the probabilities:
90% chance that Ted is a confirmed hardcore kiss up kick down type who will always kiss up to someone who’s beaten him down.
9+% chance of some kind of kompromat, either financial or something depraved on video (I’d guess involving farm animals).
<1% Ted’s father was actually involved in the Kennedy assassination and Trump has the evidence.
Ruckus
@Cheryl Rofer:
I don’t know what world he lives in, but I know he lives there with his head in his personal exhaust port.
Martin
@glc: PA will be fine. Provisionals mostly from Philly.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Barbara: I’ll wait a bit before I have confidence that Biden’s got AZ.
Martin
@Captain C: Authoritarians gonna authoritarian.
Captain C
@Captain C: With the added factor that Ted, like many Republicans, is probably physically scared of Trump’s mad mob of followers.
Barbara
@James E Powell: ETA: Biden’s margin in Nevada doubled over what it was this morning. I am not going to run Nevada numbers because I know Nevada like the back of my hand (professional reasons have made me quite familiar with its geographic population patterns). We have been told that 91% of the remaining ballots are from Clark County, where Biden won by 9%.
Citizen Alan
I’m just so sick of this. Will they continue counting over the weekend or leave us in suspense?
Jinchi
Biden’s advantage in NV this morning was less than 8,000. Now it’s over 20,000.
Barbara
@?BillinGlendaleCA: You do that, I don’t care, what I care about is speculation not based on any discernible data. It’s just naysaying at this point. At least back it up with something.
Haroldo
If this ‘Vote Scraper’ site been listed before, my apologies. It’s good for monitoring vote changes for the two candidates. As best I can tell, the % of votes needed to flip is purely arithmetic, i.e., it does not take into account where the remaining votes are coming from.
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
Quinerly
@Barbara: ?
Jess
@JPL: I want to find that guy who drove from MA to GA to vote b/c his absentee ballot didn’t arrive, and buy him many drinks. And a tank of gas.
mrmoshpotato
So – Juicer fundraiser to send several crates of ketchup to the White House?
Salty Sam
I noticed. I likey!
piratedan
@Quinerly: if its any help, the last 14k worth of votes dropped have been better for Biden, still 210K to go
Sebastian
@Tony Jay:
He must have. He wouldn’t behave like this if he relied on an intermediary.
Sebastian
@James E Powell:
I think these last ballots are the provisional ones which require a lot of checking and research
Peale
@Barbara: Yeah. I guess the thing that worried me about NV, beyond the fact that it is so slow, is that the number of outstanding ballots to tally went from 100,000 to 140,000. So it is going to take LONGER.
Jess
@Mallard Filmore: I hear there’s a nice big fence at the WH now, just waiting for graffiti…
Sebastian
@mrmoshpotato:
I think the tradition calls for salted dildos?
mrmoshpotato
@WaterGirl: The rotating tags are most excellent. :)
Ian G.
My drink choice of tonight is Yippee Ki-Yay rye whiskey from the High West Distillery in Utah (yes, Utah). A symbolic choice in that I hope that Utah will sooner rather than later join the blue dominoes falling across the inter-mountain west. It might sound crazy, but thinking of Colorado or Virginia as solid blue even in 2004 would have been crazy too.
Nora Lenderbee
@James E Powell: It takes time to dig out all those mail-in ballots from the back of the broom closet and behind the filing cabinets.
Redshift
@mrmoshpotato: I just hope we have some competent Democratic ratf*ckers who have an idea how to plant the idea in Trump’s head that Perdue and Loeffler are particularly to blame for his loss.
Quinerly
@piratedan: yep. I have been glued to this over 24 hrs minus about an hr nap.
Quinerly
@Quinerly: some NV #s coming in.
Dan B
@Kent: Fair is fair.
All the time you gave us to mourn RBG before you shipped her legacy.
Even Steven MF.
AND SO SAD about your last name.
danielx
@randy khan:
Truth. I only lived out there for six months, but the division was almost visible. Northern Virginia – Fairfax and Loudoun Counties, Alexandria, Arlington, etc – cosmopolitan, people from everywhere, go to a different type of ethnic restaurant every night for a month, all that, plus high income. The rest of Virginia is…the South. People in Northern VA figured the people in the rest of Virginia were mostly redneck brutes and shitkickers, while people in the rest of Virginia thought Northern Virginia residents were a bunch of third world scum and Yankee carpetbaggers who should all be shot. I lived outside Manassas, and people were still putting up flyers on telephone poles advertising Klan rallies. That was in 1996…I imagine it’s changed some but not all that much.
Redshift
I’ve always felt that the blackmail theories of changes in Republican behavior are kind of a milder Democratic version of conspiracy theories, in the sense that conspiracy theories let people believe the world makes more sense than it really does. I feel like it lets people like Graham off the hook. They’re just awful people, and they don’t need to be forced to be awful.
Van Buren
@Calouste: I’m getting recognized more and more these days.
randy khan
@danielx:
NoVa has pushed out a bit from D.C. since 1996, which was a big factor in the Dems getting control of the Virginia General Assembly in 2019, but yeah it gets really red as you leave the D.C. suburbs. (With some blue islands.)
Just Chuck
@Calouste: I take it Trump is the second one?
NotMax
@danielx
Dramatic change.
Now the flyers for Klan rallies are put up on Nextdoor.
//
Dan B
@WaterGirl: I noticed the rotating tags! Don’t I get credit;<(
It might be because there’s been a lot going on, like democracy on the brink, mass death, economic collapse, and a roasting planet. I still look at the tags because ‘relief’.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Barbara: OK, Trump has been exceeding the hurdle needed to take AZ. They just added about 45k votes remaining.
Redshift
@danielx: Northern Virginia has been steadily growing southward. It encompasses Loudoun and Prince William counties now. Clinton won Manassas, and it’s also represented by Danica Roem, the first trans state legislator. So I’d say it’s changed more than a little.
Quinerly
@?BillinGlendaleCA: ?
Splitting Image
@zhena gogolia:
Nope. Nevada is safe and Biden will win the recount in Georgia.
Pennsylvania might be close enough that they’ll also need a recount but Biden will win that too.
Arizona I’m not sure about, but I’d put my quatloos on Biden.
I think Arizona is spooking some of the news media. They’re so worried about having to reverse a call in Arizona that they’re afraid to make a call in any other states until they’re triple-sure.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Peale: They just cleared about 9k, and very good for Biden(this is NV).
CaseyL
I see conflicting numbers coming out of AZ. First, that Trump’s take of the outstanding votes is improving; then, that Biden’s lead is increasing. WTH is going on?
LesGS
@Redshift: I agree. We know *we* wouldn’t be committing these acts or saying these things unless someone had some way to pressure us into doing so. So we project that onto them. But they do it freely because they want to. No pressure.
Barbara
@Suzanne: I went to the data and calculated the number outstanding in Yavapai and Pinal and then calculated the number that Trump would need to win in Maricopa to overcome an already hypothetically lower margin. It’s 10 percentage points above what he has won so far. I don’t KNOW that Biden will win, but I feel like floating angst based on no data is not productive, and, basically, is a way of offloading your negative feelings by transferring them to everyone around you. It drives me especially crazy because that there was how my father acted for my ENTIRE childhood.
p.a.
I just had a victory cigar and you people are making me crazy! TPM has a good post on various states’ recount triggers and procedures.
Baud
Did Mark Kelly finish that far ahead of Biden in AZ? They’ve called his race.
James E Powell
@#$%!! I just saw Jeff Van Drew got re-elected. Is the Kennedy name dead?
Zzyzx
Biden just went from +14600 in PA to +17k!
piratedan
@CaseyL: it means more ballots have been received and routed to the processing center for evaluation most likely. The thing is, this is just a raw count, a fairly significant number get tossed for failures of some sort, mostly a lack of a signature or no security envelope….
It still worries me because I have no idea on where these ballots came from, in state, out of state, military? Provisionals that have been cured? nfi
Betty
@guachi: One thing that happened in Cumberland County over the last few years is the opening of quite a few senior communities that brought people across the river from Dauphin County. When I lived there, Cumberland was very white and very conservative. There is also a big federal facility there with a fairly diverse workforce that has changed the demographics.
Baud
@James E Powell: That’s disappointing.
Barbara
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Margin in PA just increased by another 1000, now stands at just above 17,000.
artem1s
Anyone know when President Elect Joe is addressing the nation? I haven’t been this giddy about politics since Karl Rove’s meltdown in 2012.
Baud
@Zzyzx:
Thanks. Good news.
TomatoQueen
@randy khan: delete
Spanky
I spy with my beady little eye …
A fat orange blob slowly twisting in the wind as the sun sets on yet another day of vote counting.
Let us savor …
Another Scott
@Peale:
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@trollhattan: It’s obvious Cruz and others are angling to replicate what Trump did, but I’m not sure any of them are as capable of effortlessly channelling every mean petty grievance those people have the way Trump does. Trump is a moron but he’s got an innate ability to tap into these folks Id, and I think the imitators will fall flat trying to do it. If Cruz could, he would have done better in the primaries in 2016. Donald has some sort of dark magic that charms the rubes like no one else. I hope they go a few generations without finding another like him.
Barbara
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: Not to mention, they never had a prime time broadcast tv show that fraudulently exaggerated their actual business accomplishments.
artem1s
@CaseyL:
Chicago Tribune flipped AZ blue since this afternoon.
frosty
@Suzanne: Really! From one tipping point to THE tipping point.
Quinerly
@Barbara: your father… My mother… I know it well.
mrmoshpotato
@Sebastian: Unseasoned.
trollhattan
@Zzyzx:
He’s pulling away hour by hour. Loving the trend.
Quinerly
Unlikely Biden to speak tonight unless indep calls on states/state. Per the campaign.
Betty
@p.a.: Per WaPo article, Cuban Americans want small government and low taxes – so conservative.
Omnes Omnibus
@Peale: Oh, fuck off with that.
Dan B
@Kent: Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense that missed ballots are likely to be from bigger and therefore bluer urban areas.
LuciaMia
For the past 48 hours: Headlines…
Joe Biden closes in…
Biden on the brink…
Biden close to 270…
Biden close to the presidency…
Biden on the edge…
Ahhhhhhhhhh!! Im on the edge and about to tip over!
Sab
@suzanne: Jeez. You are so young. Did you go there for college?
Sab
@suzanne: Jeez. You are so young. Did you go there for college?
James E Powell
@Jinchi:
I ‘pologize – I shoulda said “since this morning” because I knew about the increase from 8K to 20K which just increased to 22K.
mrmoshpotato
@artem1s: 8PM Eastern, you schadenfreudeing, hilarious bastard. :)
Calouste
@Just Chuck: No. The shitgibbon is the second President who doesn’t speak English as his first language, but he doesn’t have language beyond his native language of gibberish.
One of the Many Jens
Re Nevada numbers, Biden is +22,657 at last count (1.6% lead). Given most of the remaining ballots/provisionals are from Clark, I’m feeling pretty good about this. Re speed, well, every effing body is being affected by GOP lawsuits. There is literally one being live-tweeted right now.
Also, re speed of PA counting, wouldn’t surprise me about official GOP obstruction/lawsuits affecting that, and I heard about a bomb threat nearby, which couldn’t have helped either.
hueyplong
@artem1s: And it has always been a GOP paper.
Redshift
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:
Maybe. The one difference is that they all used to believe they had to dogwhistle to avoid alienating part of their voting population. Trump threw that out the window and succeeded (though it’s failed him ever since 2016.) I still don’t think it’s likely, but it seems possible Cruz could do the same and be more successful than he was in 2016.
Dan B
@Mallard Filmore: Skywriters? Space lasers?
Options please!
James E Powell
@NotMax:
In normal times I got there twice a year for Spring Training and AZ Fall League. Lately I’ve started to feel like it’s becoming more civilized.
Aleta
The 2016 election isn’t over either you swindling frauds and racketeers.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Ian G.: I’m doing Glen Morangie Quinta Ruban. Bought the bottle a few weeks back and this seemed like the occasion to finally open it.
Another tipple I’ve discovered recently is Marie Duffau Napoleon Armanac. It’s like autumn in a bottle. Lots of spice and dried fruit.
WaterGirl
@mrmoshpotato: Oh, good! They make me happy, but with no one seeming to notice, I did sort of feel like I threw a party and nobody came.
frosty
@randy khan: Many years ago, representing Arlington at a statewide meeting. We all introduced ourselves and when I said where I was from I heard a downstate drawl “Oh, you’re from Occupied Virginia.”
James E Powell
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
This guy DJ Quinlan is on the ground in AZ and he is as confident about a Biden victory in AZ as Ralston is about NV.
But we’ve got PA, so it’s all just extra special.
WaterGirl
@Dan B: Sometimes it’s the little things that get us through. :-)
P.S. You get extra credit.
James E Powell
@Quinerly:
What does the green heart emoji signify?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@CaseyL: Biden’s lead in AZ has dropped 90k in the past 2 days(131k to 38.5k), so Trump is taking a greater share of the outstanding votes. That could be heavily dependent on where these votes have been coming from.
geg6
@guachi:
He flipped Erie also.
Dan B
@FelonyGovt: A lucrative New career path for Ivanka: uniform design, Jared: Emperor Palpatine toady assistant, Stephen Miller: freezing icy stare weapon, Steve Bannon: Jabba 2.0 – the failed version, Bill Barr: Klingon grump with zero virtues, Etc.
That’s what becomes of Space Farce!
WhatsMyNym
@Betty:
Well they’re not going to get that in Florida much longer. With increased flooding, somebody is going to have to pay for the changes need to live there. And I’m guessing the local governments have been living off fees related to real estate sales and development. That could be a wash out in the near future.
ETA: typos
WaterGirl
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Bless you for always including the state!
edit: Did you catch that your Election Respite OTR After Dark is tonight?
Wapiti
@Redshift: This. When southern schools were desegregated, those women shouting at the black kids? No one was holding a gun to those women’s heads. They did it because that’s what they chose to do.
Quinerly
@James E Powell: love the comment. Green is just a color.
hueyplong
Biden is going to win all four. The few who are pearl clutching should stop that and instead focus on Trump’s exquisite torture.
You’re missing out on some grade A satisfaction for no reason.
zhena gogolia
@hueyplong:
Well, thank you for rehabilitating my cocktail hour.
Barbara
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I do think the “absentee effect” is not nearly as pro-Biden in AZ as it is in Pennsylvania.
ETA: Lest we forget, today was another record day for Covid cases in the U.S. Deaths are increasing again. 128,000 cases and nearly 1200 deaths.
Splitting Image
@LuciaMia:
Zeno’s Presidency. Every hour Biden will move half of the distance to where he needs to be for them to call the election.
It will make good practice for his administration, where each week he will move halfway towards what the pundits consider an acceptable compromise with Republicans without ever actually reaching it.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: Trump had a lot of things going for him that other Republicans can’t replicate(not a politician, celebrety, the prerceived successful businessman…). Just being on the TV machine probably netted him 1% or 2% of the vote.
H.E.Wolf
Let’s hope it singes the merkin on Pence’s head. (It’s already flyspecked.)
JPL
@hueyplong: What time?
Quinerly
Murdoch’s NY Post turning on Trump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/business/new-york-post-trump.html
CliosFanBoy
@danielx: The suburbs have expanded out, but some things stayed the same. The rest of the state still loves to get our Northern VA tax dollars..
WaterGirl
@Barbara: I am a data girl, so I very much appreciate your approach. I am too close to this, so this is one situation where I can’t look at the numbers myself and be methodical and logical.
WaterGirl
@artem1s: 8 pm Eastern time, I believe.
Nevada was supposed to be 7pm Eastern time.
Did that happen?
Baud
@Splitting Image:
Heh. Too true.
Quinerly
@hueyplong: YES!
THIS!!!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Calouste: Many said the same thing about GW Bush, so I’d go with the third.
Dan B
@Jinchi: I forgot about Pence’s role in Space Farce. My bad. But I think he’ll fit easily with some of those Star Trek aliens with silver or pastel hair and no personality.
But, wait, weren’t those eunuch or gender less. Oh, fits even more seamlessly!
Barbara
@WaterGirl: The numbers in this case are mostly calming me down. Also, unlike in 2016, one thing that destined 2020 to be a better year is that I didn’t lose one of my nearest and dearest colleagues on Election Day, to pancreatic cancer.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: It does!
bemused senior
@danielx: you obviously don’t know much about richmond and charlottesville.
Morzer
Trump is going to lose Nevada, Arizona, Georgia AND Pennsylvania. We still don’t know about North Carolina, but that isn’t going to matter to the electoral college outcome. I know some people are feeling down that we didn’t get another blue wave – but look at how blue Georgia is turning and how fast. That’s a huge shift in our favor. Think how red Virginia used to be – now, we are looking at it as essentially a blue state. Once Georgia buys a ticket to the 21st century, which it is clearly in the process of doing at every level, we have a much easier path to the White House and, ultimately, the Senate. If we can add Arizona to the pile for good, which I really believe we can do, the GOP is going to have a lot of reasons to worry about the future. Remember that Florida went for Trump – and it did not matter. Think what that means – a beautiful blue future is on the horizon! That, as President-elect Biden might say, is a big fucking deal.
frosty
Pick another 40! John won’t notice.
ETA: I find myself sitting on the banner waiting for the next one to come up. It’s better than listening to everyone’s angst about “Biden’s losing!!!” NV, AZ, GA, PA.
ETA2: I just saw this upthread but I’m not going to nominate it: “I think the tradition calls for salted dildos?”
?BillinGlendaleCA
@WaterGirl:
No, guess I should stay awake.
Yarrow
@WaterGirl: I’m very happy to see that “The willow is too close to the house” made the rotating tags. As it should.
Kent
A new Allegheny County ballot dump (Pittsburgh). Biden carries 76% of them.
Biden’s PA lead is now up to 19,500 per MSNB
Apparently the biggest remaining chuck of uncounted mail ballots is Allegheny County due to court delays in the count and also a bunch of provisionals from Philly where Biden is running at 90%.
Spanky
@suzanne: You have my sympathies. Allegheny County has its issues (eye-roll here), but I’d pick my home county over Maricopa any day.
WaterGirl
@geg6: Erie is supposed to be the bellwether. They told us: Whoever wins Erie, wins PA, and whoever wins PA, wins the election.
Aleta
ETA I looked up @DPGChair . She is is Nikema Williams.
ETA2 Helen Butler is “executive director of the Peoples’ Agenda, a nonpartisan organization founded by the late civil rights leader, Dr. Joseph E. Lowery.”
James E Powell
@hueyplong:
Calling it “pearl clutching” is unjustly demeaning. No one is getting hysterical, just expressing anxieties. We won! Let’s be excellent to each other. C’mon man!
rikyrah
Kent
Pittsburgh has always struck me as an interesting and beautiful city. But I’ve never lived there, only passed through.
Gravenstone
@WaterGirl: By context, I would guess the parenthetical value is the increase since the last released count.
rikyrah
My new t-shirt ?
FUCK YOU, WE WON?
Quinerly
Trump melting down on Twitter tonight:
“I had such a big lead in all of these states late into election night, only to see the leads miraculously disappear as the days went by. Perhaps these leads will return as our legal proceedings move forward!”
Morzer
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: What Trump had was name recognition, a reputation as a successful businessman and a willingness, even eagerness, to say the disgusting bits out loud. I don’t see Cruz, slimy little creep though he is, being able to replicate the secret sauce. As for Hawley and Cotton and the rest of the gang, they are electable only in deep red states and their lack of charisma isn’t going to play well at all anywhere else. I think it’s extremely likely that the GOP isn’t going to get anything like the same turnout without the Orange Abomination at the head of the ticket.
James E Powell
I just saw the clip of Trump talking last night. I think he needed a few more flags behind him.
Quinerly
Tonight, Trump on Twitter:
“Joe Biden should not wrongfully claim the office of the President. I could make that claim also. Legal proceedings are just now beginning!”
geg6
@Suzanne:
I thought about you today when I kept hearing Maricopa and Allegheny Counties too many times today. I streamed MSNBC in my office today, hoping to hear a PA call. At one point, I thought of you and thought, what must she think with both her home counties being international news right now?
Matt McIrvin
@Barbara: Looking at this site:
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
They calculate the percentage of remaining ballots the underdog needs at any moment to flip the state. Of course, the estimates of the number of outstanding ballots have been… variable.
Baud
@Kent:
?
frosty
I was too wound up last night to run the numbers in my head so I finally put them in a spreadsheet to see what % Biden had to hit compared to what he had been getting. The answer was good and I stopped fretting. I’m not going to open it up again tonight.
Someone tonight said Trump had to hit 55% of the remaining votes in PA. That means Biden needs 45%. Unless all the remaining ballots are from the “T” (and they aren’t) he’s got this.
WaterGirl
@Barbara: Double whammy. That’s hard.
Working with numbers always calms me down. Numbers are orderly and well-behaved, and it’s calming to plod through in an orderly fashion.
Except for this situation! I just can’t look. So my one thing that always keeps me calm is unavailable. Not fair! :-)
Yarrow
@Morzer: Also, if Trump loses he’s eligible to run in 2024 so will set up some other party and start campaigning right away as a grifting mechanism. He’ll be beating up on anyone he thinks didn’t support him like they should have done and that will include plenty of Republicans.
NotMax
@WaterGirl
Channeling from “The Music Man.”
Erie Pennsylvania
Erie Pennsylvania
Erie Pennsylvania
Let me say it once again
Erie Pennsylvania
Erie Pennsylvania
Erie Pennsylvania
That’s the place to watch to win
.
:)
:)
WaterGirl
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Stay awake? Isn’t that 7pm for you?
John S.
I am getting really tired of hearing the news talk about how the Trump supporters need time, and room to calm down and a safe space to decompress.
FUCK THESE PEOPLE.
These motherfuckers have been the loudest most obnoxious assholes the last 4 years. Taunting everyone as snowflakes, and fuck your feelings and all the other bullshit. Fuck them all. Each and every one of them.
hueyplong
@Morzer: I like the cut of your jib.
geg6
@Martin:
And Pittsburgh. He’s got this.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@James E Powell: At least he didn’t hump a couple of them after his remarks.
different-church-lady
Endless doom scrolling has turned to endless joy scrolling!
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don’t do what I want them to
Facts just twist the truth around
Facts are living turned inside out
Facts are getting the best of them
Facts are nothing on the face of things
Facts don’t stain the furniture
Facts go out and slam the door
Facts are written all over your face
Facts continue to change their shape
Matt McIrvin
@frosty:
Now it’s 59%. Ain’t gonna happen.
LurkerNoLonger
@Quinerly: voting! It’s miraculous!
different-church-lady
@Morzer: If it works out that way, it’s fantastic news, because it obviates step 5 of my 5 step plan, which is “Worry about faithless electors.”
James E Powell
@John S.:
Right there with you. Back when Trump got elected, were they all worried how he could govern a country when a large majority didn’t vote for him? Not that I recall. It was all about liberals getting over their feelings and Hillary going away and never appearing in public again.
frosty
@WaterGirl: Bellwethers. Betty Cracker had something to say about that re: Florida. Duval failed its bellwether status. Nevertheless, my bellwether is this: Going back to ’88, if York County goes over 34% D, the Democrat wins the state. It was 36.7% this time around.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@WaterGirl: Yeah, ya got a problem with that? I need my beauty sleep(probably should sleep for a year).
mrmoshpotato
@John S.: Well, YouTube suggested the Family Policy Alliance livestream under Hal Sparks’ livestream for some weird reason.
I’m just saying.
WaterGirl
@Aleta: Thanks for that. I found the tweet and I’ll include that in my Georgia Action & Fundraising post tomorrow.
different-church-lady
So, today I found my mind skipping over Trump getting thrown in jail and went right on to imaging Kushner getting thrown in jail…
Morzer
@Yarrow:
I doubt that Trump himself will run in 2024, even assuming that he isn’t bankrupt and/or in prison. He’s much more interested in settling old scores with “traitors” on Twitter and, most likely, setting up Trump TV to communicate his deep thoughts to the adoring masses and grift them for every penny the pathetic halfwits possess.
Al Z.
@LuciaMia: Don’t look now! AP has him on the cusp of presidency!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@different-church-lady: I wouldn’t worry too much about that, the legal situation around electors has changed since 2016.
John S.
@James E Powell: Exactly. Biden won. Get over it. Go knit yourselves some orange dick hats or something and have another KKK rally somewhere and then crawl back under the rocks you came out from under.
WaterGirl
@Gravenstone: That is correct! (I learned something)
frosty
This is something I’ve been wondering about re:polling. How far off where they in 2018? A possible theory for 2016 and 2020 is that Trump brings out people who don’t usually vote. The 2018 polls might give us a hint.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@different-church-lady: Happy thoughts!
Morzer
@hueyplong: I have the best jibs. The other day, a general/doctor/scientist/astro… nomicer – a big, manly man – came up to me with tears in his eyes and said “Sir, sir, thank you for making jibs great again!”
mrmoshpotato
Ted Cruz – is an assclown. C’mon. Ted.
DAMN THIS FEELS GOOD!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@frosty: I tend to agree.
hueyplong
@Morzer: Damn, well played.
different-church-lady
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Well, at exactly 270, it only takes one fucknut to throw things into complete chaos, no matter what the legal ramifications for said fucknut. At 280, or 290 it’s hella less likely.
Morzer
@frosty: I think some of the Trump effect is bringing out people who never bothered to vote for more “polite” conservatives. Some of it is just men with more testosterone than sense. Some of it is, sadly, a failure by the Democratic party to get its act together when it comes to effective local organizing and communication. Florida is the case study for the last two factors.
different-church-lady
@Morzer: I doubt Trump is going to live ’til 2024.
Miss Bianca
@Mike in NC: Yep! You and me both! I was going to watch it on Election Night and then I just couldn’t. Seemed premature. But…tonight’s the night. : )
WaterGirl
@Quinerly: Magical thinking? He has no conception of why he had the early lead (election day in person counted first) or why it’s changing (mail-in, counted last).
He was magically ahead! Now he’s surprisingly behind! Maybe he’ll magically jump ahead again? Literally like a child’s brain.
But a very evil child.
edit: Maybe this should be a thread:
Fucked up Trump: Nature or Nurture? Discuss
Yarrow
CNN chyron says Biden’s lead in PA grows to 20K. Earlier today Andrea Mitchell said NBC/MSNBC would call it when Biden’s lead got to 25K. Getting close.
Dorothy A. Winsor
This is from my friend who was counting ballots in PA:
?BillinGlendaleCA
@different-church-lady: I don’t think we’ll be at 270, if Biden wins…closer to 290.
Calouste
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Not that much actually IIRC. The Supreme Court upheld that states could have laws stating that electors should vote for the candidate that got the most votes in that state, but a) not all states have those laws, and b) the penalties for breaking those laws are not really a deterrent in some other states. I think in some states it is a fine of $1000 or so.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Morzer: Floriduh’s problem is Floriduh Man and Floriduh Woman.
Baud
@Yarrow:
Excellent. Real votes are better than hypothetical votes.
NotMax
@different-church-lady
At which point he can lie in state at Sing Sing.
//
mrmoshpotato
Well. The crazy has come home to roost.
Yarrow
@Morzer: Him actually running and him setting up a campaign to fleece the rubes are not the same thing. He can just suspend his campaign when he quits. Meanwhile he can brand and make money off stuff with slogans like “The Once and Future President!” and “Vengeance will be mine!”
WaterGirl
@NotMax: That is an evil ear worm. :-)
Morzer
@different-church-lady: Well, he’s obese, obviously not as mentally sharp as he used to be and has a diet designed to clog his arteries and enhance any tendencies to Alzheimer’s, so, he might well expire before 2024, but my guess is he’s still alive then but even further down the path to Maximum Giuliani.
Calouste
@different-church-lady: He might live until 2024, but I’m fairly sure that the mental and physical deterioration will have progressed so far that he can no longer campaign, except by carefully edited video. He won’t be able to participate in a debate or hold a rally.
Morzer
@?BillinGlendaleCA: To which I can only say “Well, duh!”
LurkerNoLonger
I don’t know how to embed a tweet but this should make some of you guys feel better:
Allegheny County military absentee ballots just went 4:1 for Biden.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Wow, that movie looks interesting. Is it creepy or intruige?
John S.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Not all of Floriduh, just the rural parts — like many other states. The metro areas here are pretty solidly blue. Even Miami Dade with its conservative Cuban population is pretty blue.
NotMax
@WaterGirl
Unduly giddy from seeing people spell bellwether correctly.
;)
Kent
A faithless elector that flips the election would literally have to spend the rest of their entire life hiding in witness protection or seeking asylum in Russia or something. They could never again risk stepping foot on an American street for fear of assassination. Electors don’t get secret service protection. People would be that pissed. And an entire army of hackers would dedicate their lives to doxing that person. Guaranteed
Morzer
The Nevada Independent folks (Jon Ralston’s crew) are holding a very good and interesting live discussion here:
https://www.facebook.com/thenevadaindependent/videos/371025067324250/
Dorothy A. Winsor
Continuing what I posted at #379
Baud
@LurkerNoLonger:
Thank you. I was wondering about the military vote.
patrick II
@Morzer:
He would have to get through the Republican primaries, but this time as a loser.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Not a movie. Old Talking Heads album.
patrick II
I read about a large increase in young people registering. Did they vote?
Morzer
@patrick II: I suspect he would describe himself as a winner who was cheated by the wicked Socialist genius Biden and the crooked Soros Democrats who live in ‘those cities’.
James E Powell
@frosty:
I totally agree with this and I am surprised that no one I’ve heard on cable news all day has advanced this theory.
They have advanced the theory that people who voted for D senate & house candidates in 2018 were voicing their disapproval of Trump but that in 2020 they didn’t do that because they could vote against Trump. That strikes me as improbable. I think what you said is true. Trump on the ballot brings out the fringe in huge numbers.
Baud
@patrick II: I have the same question. I haven’t heard anything about youth turnout.
Baud
@James E Powell:
Trump really is their Obama.
FelonyGovt
@LurkerNoLonger: Ted Lieu just tweeted that statistic and speculated that Trump calling military people losers and suckers hasn’t endeared him to the troops.
Morzer
@Baud: More of their Nobrainer, I think.
Quinerly
@WaterGirl: well, he did say the virus would just magically go away.
Morzer
@Baud: I saw one claim that young voters turned out in Texas at 700% of their usual rate. Whether that is accurate I leave to those who know the facts of Texas better than I do.
Yarrow
Ohhhh…I’d missed this.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:
Woodford Distillers Select right now. I’ve got a lovely fallback in a Buffalo Trace.
Also smoking a nice Rocky Patel Robusto, 1990 Vintage as I grill…
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: He’s the Anti-Obama.
Baud
@Yarrow:
Haha. I hope Kim Jung Un calls him a dotard again.
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I like seeing that, thank you.
guachi
@Morzer: That was early vote so it wasn’t particularly meaningful in Texas.
Yarrow
Did we know this? Good news!
Baud
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
He really should have a goatee.
Baud
@Yarrow: Nice.
Morzer
@Yarrow: Georgia has actually given Democrats several congressional pickups this time around – which is further evidence of the state turning blue and offers some reason to be optimistic about the Senate runoffs.
Old School
@Yarrow: Andrea Mitchell said NBC/MSNBC would call it at 35,000 (a .5% lead).
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@MattF: What I always loved about the “Surrender Dorothy” sign is that you see it just as you also see the Mormon Temple looming menacingly over the beltway, which you can see in that photo.
WaterGirl
@LurkerNoLonger: I added the tweet to your comment.
Baud
@Old School: Probably won’t be tonight then.
patrick II
@Morzer:
That seems high, but if youth turned up in large numbers it means that that olds , with the help of the EC, would have voted Trump in again.
Zzyzx
Phish’s guitarist is playing a 2+ hour show on Twitch every Friday to promote a fund to build a rehab center in Vermont and I’m so glad for a distraction.
The numbers are going the right way but I want them to do it faster damnit!
SiubhanDuinne
@Morzer:
The genius who is, at one and the same time, a senile sleepy old dude who is falling further into the clutches of dementia every day.
MisterForkbeard
@Kent: If Biden wins the popular vote and the whole thing is thrown to Trump by a faithless elector (and then maybe by the Republican state delegations), you’re damn right somebody would kill the elector. And they’d have riots in the street.
It would be the most anti-democratic action we’d ever seen. I can’t imagine what it would do to the nation. Probably attempted assassinations on multiple Republican elected officials. Maybe even tip off actual secession efforts, though I don’t know how serious it would be.
Maybe I’m going farther than is realistic here, but it would be real bad.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: The link took me to a youtube trailer for the movie The Undoing. weird
LuciaMia
Great! They’re helping us expand our vocabulary!
So, no Biden tonight…
Morzer
@SiubhanDuinne: Him too!
Matt McIrvin
@?BillinGlendaleCA: If Biden wins NV and PA, which I think will happen, he’s at 279. If he also wins AZ and GA, which could happen, that’s 306. That’s pretty much the range.
Zzyzx
@MisterForkbeard: no. This is my biggest terror: a close election and someone kidnaps the family of an elector.
Morzer
@LuciaMia: Think of it as another sleepless night for Loser Trump.
LurkerNoLonger
@WaterGirl: Thank you. It looks spiffy. :)
Zzyzx
@Matt McIrvin: Logically, I think AZ is the only state where he’s currently leading that he might not win, but I don’t want to jinx it :)
Brachiator
The CNN home page keeps varying headlines like “Biden on the Brink,” “Biden on the Verge,” and “Biden’s Lead Grows.”
Might as well just say “Biden His Time”
And so, I keep asking,
Are we there yet?
Morzer
@Matt McIrvin: Georgia’s going to go to Biden. His lead has expanded to roughly 4,000 votes and what it left is mostly from very blue areas. Arizona could, hypothetically, go back to Trump, but Biden’s lead is almost certainly big enough to survive an unlikely late onslaught, which has shown no sign of materializing thus far.
mdblanche
@mrmoshpotato: “The leopard wasn’t supposed to eat my face!”
Baud
@Zzyzx: I feel the same. I don’t see how he wins GA at this point.
MisterForkbeard
@Zzyzx: Yeah. That would be very, very bad. There would certainly be threats, that’s for sure.
But it won’t come down to that. Don’t see how Biden gets any less than 280, and I think 306 or so is reasonably possble.
Old School
@Baud: Probably not, unfortunately.
WaterGirl
@Yarrow: I did not know that. yay!
WaterGirl
@LurkerNoLonger: Just so you know, only front pagers can include the “dressed up” version of a tweet. Commenters paste in the same embed code (in text mode, not visual mode) and it gets stripped down without images, etc. But it’s still formatted in a block quote, with links.
Sebastian
THIS WINS THE DAY THE WEEK THE ELECTION!!!
Cermet
Just how does PA not move the count at all today? Not one vote since that report very early this morning. Did they not count any ballots at all today? If so, why no report of results?
Aleta
I like Luke O’Brien as a reporter who goes after extremists and political disinformation and confronts perpetrators. Tonight:
In his reply to Cernovich who tweeted
Another reply to an attack on AOC (I’m not quoting C):
Matt McIrvin
@Morzer: GA is close enough that the completely unknown number of potentially incoming overseas/military ballots that haven’t yet arrived could flip it, I think. That’s the main reason I don’t see it as a sure thing.
Frankensteinbeck
@LurkerNoLonger:
Excellent. We’re in the middle of the worst counting section for Biden in PA, and he’s still holding steady and occasionally making advances. All the silver bullets everyone was afraid might break his PA lead are shot, while there’s still pro-Biden boxes waiting in the wings.
I was a little afraid when MSNBC explained all the ‘might not go for Biden’ options, but they’ve fizzled. Even the longshot chance for Trump is gone. Biden has PA.
Baud
@Cermet: People are updating PA in this thread.
WaterGirl
@Baud:
When I am made benevolent dictator of the world, pronouns will be outlawed! :-)
frosty
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I agree! I drove that stretch every day in the early 1980s and loved seeing “Surrender Dorothy”. The Mormon Temple behind it was perfect.
geg6
@Kent:
It is very much that. Next time you’re passing through, stay a few days. You won’t regret it.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
I agree that’s the big unknown, but my gut tells me it won’t be enough to undo a 4000 vote lead.
James E Powell
@Omnes Omnibus:
Remain in Light was the album that really hooked me on the Talking Heads. It holds up well.
Matt McIrvin
@Cermet: This site has been showing updates all day:
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
Right now (if I understand correctly) the ballots they’re counting are a combination of mail ballots from the more urban counties, and in-person provisionals from the redder rural counties. So they flip back and forth between very blue bigger drops, and very red smaller ones. So on the whole they aren’t as blue as we were seeing before (which is getting some commentators excited), but it’s nowhere near the balance Trump needs to win, which right now is near 59% for all ballots remaining.
Jeffro
@danielx: VA’s college towns have a lot of that NoVA vibe and definitely helped turn (and keep!) VA blue ?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Matt McIrvin: Agree, PA and NV are looking much better for Biden. I’m not sure how much GA has to count. I’m still pessimistic about AZ mainly due to its almost uninterrupted slide in the margin.
Cermet
@Baud: Where? What has changed? He is still just 19 K ahead which is the exact same Biden had this early morning. Are the cvotes exactly 50/50 spilt?
Mike in NC
@Quinerly: “The war has not necessarily turned out to Japan’s advantage.”
Cermet
Both WP and NYT say the exact 96% counted which exactl matches what they have displayed since this morning. Not even 1% more since this morning?
patrick II
Pennsylvania did not want to be the one to put Biden over the top because of the SC threat. But Biden got ahead without counting ballots that came in after Nov 3, so they are o.k. now.
frosty
@WaterGirl: Yes! That “he” had me clutching my pearls for a moment.
Brachiator
@James E Powell:
A possible theory for 2016 and 2020 is that Trump brings out people who don’t usually vote.
All kinds of ways to look at this, and it is too early to lock onto any one reason or main reason. Fairly efficient early voting, mail-in ballots, even Trump’s calls for his people to show up and vote in person may have had some effect.
One thing is clear. There was a lot of voting going on by both parties.
vs
The sad thing is that a lot of voters knew exactly what Trump was and came out and voted for him anyway. The good thing is that more people came out for Joe Biden. And Biden may also have a sizeable share of first time voters and people who do not usually vote, but who felt compelled to come out this time.
Cermet
Thanks for the link – so Biden will only get by with a tiny lead? What happen to the estimate 100 K (60 K per 1% he was getting all yesterday.) Are the times and post refusing to post the change in %?
japa21
@Cermet: He wasn’t up 19K this morning, only about 4K.
Frankensteinbeck
@Cermet:
The votes were like 5k ahead this morning. They’ve been creeping up gruelingly slowly all day.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Morzer:
It’s not that, it’s just a steady erosion in Biden’s margin, and it may be just enough to give Trump AZ. Maybe it’s been the Trump friendly areas of the state reporting the past two days, but every time there’s a report, Biden’s lead seems to get whittled down by about 1.5k
Matt McIrvin
@Cermet:
What? Early this morning Biden had just flipped PA, he couldn’t have been that far ahead.
Matt McIrvin
@Cermet: 100k was a straight-line extrapolation from a period when the votes were mostly coming in from Philly. It’s more complicated than that since there are also the provisional ballots from Pennsyltucky to count. But I don’t think we’ve gotten into the Philly provisionals yet and that’s about 40,000 votes (according to Nate Silver). So I’m actually expecting the lead to widen significantly from here. It’ll be tens of thousands.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Cermet: Early this morning Trump was ahead by around 19k, now Biden is ahead by 19k.
MC
“If Biden wins” “If Trump wins” “If Biden loses” “If Trump loses”
This is making me insane. Am I supposed to celebrate? No?
Frankensteinbeck
@Matt McIrvin:
Those lasted long enough to break even, and after that, whether we win by 5,000 or 500,000 it’s a win. Hell, getting over the recount threshold is a fig leaf. Recounts don’t change the total noticeably unless there’s some kind of physical problem like missing ballots.
There go two miscreants
@WaterGirl: No one else seems to notice them
I have to admit that I usually scroll down before too many show up, but a couple of times a week I’ll stop and watch them go by for a while. They are pretty clever!
WaterGirl
@Baud: I think it will be tonight. They keep saying “during prime time tonight”. I think it’s going to happen.
Here’s my gut feeling:
I think all the networks are talking with one another, and with the Biden campaign, and I think they are all waiting for some arbitrary threshold at which point they are going to call it. I would bet money that it’s within the next hour or two.
Just a gut feeling, no inside information.
mrmoshpotato
@mdblanche: Yup!
WaterGirl
FYI, here’s the YouTube link for Joe & Kamala
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dk7WG0Ovdr0&feature=youtu.be
I just refreshed, and it looks different than it did even 10 minutes ago. I think maybe this thing is really gonna happen.
I sent the link to TaMara in case she wants to put up the Live event thread. If she doesn’t, I will.
Kent
Exactly, he has gained about 38,000 vote difference since early morning and the drip drip drip continues.
AliceBlue
@Yarrow: This is particularly delicious because that seat has been held by the GOP for decades.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Kent: Biden’s up 21.7k in PA now, looking good.
Matt McIrvin
It sounds as if the main reason counts in PA and NV are so slow is that Trump and Republicans are slowing them down with legal and other forms of harassment: lawsuits, “observers” demanding access to the counting tables, bomb threats and other threats of violence, etc. I suppose Trump figures this gives him time to build some kind of case to… what, I don’t know. Convince the legislatures to go rogue and participate in his illegal Throw Out All the Votes plan, maybe, but it doesn’t sound like they’re going to do that.
But it does effectively create the impression that there’s some kind of real uncertainty in how this ends, when there isn’t.
Sure Lurkalot
@Calouste: John Gill.
Kent
So there was some back and forth on MSNBC involving Kornacki regarding possibly why the delayed call in PA. It comes down to provisional ballots. In any normal year they would tilt heavily Dem because in normal years it is younger and minority voters who are less likely to have IDs and such who end up in the provisional stack. Older more established white voters are less likely to vote provisional because they generally lead more stabile lives.
The wild card this year is the mail ballot thing and Trump. They are theorizing that it is possible that a larger number of Trump voters got mail ballots and then due to the Trump insanity decided to vote in person instead. To to that you have to go bring your entire mail ballot, envelope, and sleeve and turn them in to vote in person. If you lack an of that you vote provisional and they check to make sure they don’t have a mail vote for you before they count the provisional ballot. So there could be Trump voters who decided last minute not to vote mail, as well as Biden voters who got scared last minute about the mail and decided to vote in person.
There is also likely to be some percentage of provisional ballots from people who actually did vote mail and are trying to vote twice as Trump suggested they do in NC if you all remember that scandal. So some percentage of those provisionals will get thrown out due to the voter already voting by mail.
The problem is that they don’t feel they can go by past experience to know how provisionals will break. My own wild ass guess is that a lot of them are duplicates by people who tried to vote twice. But who knows.
So MSNBC wants to see a larger lead before they call it just because no one really knows what the fuck is in those provisional ballots. They will probably still break Biden. But they want to be super safe.
Matt McIrvin
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Looks to me like Biden is on track to lead by about 50,000 whenever this is all over. Somewhat less than what I estimated before, but my methods are crude.
Kent
@Kent: Following up on my post. The largest percentage of provisional ballots are from the Philly area which went 9-1 for
TrumpBIDEN. So if provisionals hold to form they likely increase Biden’s lead substantially. But they don’t really know until they start seeing the pattern since we are off the map in this election.edited
Kent
Big AZ vote drop of 70,000 votes. Trump got 54% of them which narrows the margin to 28,000 but he needed more like 60% to stay on pace to catch Biden.
So good news for Biden in AZ. Trump is gaining, but not gaining quite fast enough to catch Biden. But it could wind up like GA with a few thousand votes separating them. Pray for PA so all these other possible recounts don’t hold up the call.
Per Kornacki.
WaterGirl
@Kent:
Did you meant to say Biden?
Kent
@WaterGirl: Yes, Biden.
PA looks rock solid for Biden.
NV looks pretty rock solid for Biden
AZ looks close but leaning Biden
GA seems Biden but close and going to recount.
WaterGirl
@Kent: Fixed.
Dmbeaster
@?BillinGlendaleCA: So far, the AZ count is not giving Trump enough to close the gap. He is closing the gap, but is falling short. The vast majority of outstanding ballots are in Maricopa County, and he was needing 57% to draw even. 100,000 vote tallies were released today, and it was 53-54%. That means he needs over 60% for the balance to get back on track. No reason to think that happens.
But it remains uncertain, even if unlikely.
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: I noticed the new rotating tags!
Matt McIrvin
Georgia is completely off the usual predictive rails now because nobody even has an estimate of how many overseas ballots, etc. might actually come in. But, yeah, it looks like Biden’s lead of 4,000 or so isn’t moving very much as ballots dribble in. I’ll say I now believe Biden is going to hold it, which is pretty amazing.
Arizona, I have no goddamn idea. It seemed for a while like the counts were almost exactly aiming for a tie, but maybe it’s a little on Biden’s side now.
I still think Biden has PA and NV in the bag.
SFAW
@Sure Lurkalot:
Gill wasn’t demented, he was drugged by Skippy Homeier. [Yeah, yeah, Ritalin/Adderall is a drug, too, but it doesn’t put you in a stupor, does it?]
Dan B
@Kent: I’m not grokking your math.
If Philly went 9-1 FOR Trump why would the Provisional ballots from Philly give a lead to Biden?
Momus
Well, Louie does look to be in much better shape than Ted, so there’s that.
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: Oh good. When no one was saying anything I thought no one had noticed.
laura
I’m here for the Tbogg Unit. Come on people- let’s heave it over the threshold!
Matt McIrvin
@Dan B: He meant 9-1 for Biden. Bad things happen to Donald Trump in Philadelphia.
WaterGirl
@Dan B: That was a mistype. I checked with him earlier and went back and fixed. it.
Dan B
@Kent: Thanks!
You are invariably correct but even our gods and idols can have cracks.
Glad to feel less fallible and inferior in these perilous times.
Baud
@laura: Have a comment.
Dan B
@WaterGirl: Thank you.
Binary systems ie:
Trump vs. Biden – or – Biden vs. Trump,
are easily switched.
catclub
@BC in Illinois: 1995 Ben Nevis…. and I’m not looking forward to coughing up what a new bottle would cost.
but if you only drink it every 25 years, you can afford it.
WaterGirl
New thread for the LIVE event is up.
bucachon
@p.a.: 50 states! Take it to the red states.
J R in WV
Yeah, I bought an expensive bottle of champagne a couple of days ago, and some medium expensive bottles. So far we’re doing the medium expensive bottles, and saving the really good bottle for when it’s a done deal.
Vamping, indeed.
Dan B
@WaterGirl: A thought.
We’re focused on whether or not we elect a decent and effective president and representatives. It hangs in the balance, but shouldn’t.
We are focused on how Kamala, Joe, and Nancy (Chuck is another story – When will he be ‘Leader instead of hanging on to a past which probably never existed?) could save us? How? Prolly never with that mindset.
It feels like it would be very valuable to point to, highlight, and duscuss stories about how, Really HOW, people moved boulders.
Climate challenges are one but there are others. I believe Jackals have many ‘Six Degrees of Separation stories. I have several that blow peoples minds, or as was said about the Women’s Movement in the 60’s, Expand Consciousness.
It could be energizing to discuss what works and what doesn’t, or didn’t, in my case several times.
This will be important in the next few months, and probably years, since paradise is a goal, not a destination.*
*If you achieve utopia/paradise you’re stuck.
P.P.S. Thanks for being you! Not just all you do.
Morzer
@WaterGirl: Then how will [
we] know that [you] are going to be [our] benevolent dictator, Dread Majesty?WaterGirl
@Morzer: I most certainly will never be named benevolent dictator of the world, but it’s always good to have your list in case something unexpected happens.
I was a Girl Scout until 4th grade. Always be prepared. It stuck.
brantl
So Gohmert is the low-hanging fruit, for who they could get to be stupid enough to go out and lie their ass off about this bullshit? Who had him in the pools? I knew Ted would be stupid enough to defend Stump, but too lazy to go anywhere to do it.
Richard
@Kent: i only went through there once. I was on a greyhound bus. It looked like a nice town. Trees, hills, rivers. Nice houses. Nice people. I was on an errand so i couldn’t stop but it looked nice.