What we are seeing today in terms of new cases are infections from last week.
What we are seeing today in new hospitalizations are infections from when Pennsylvania was called.
What we are seeing today in new deaths are infections from Halloween to Election Day.
COVID has significant and serious lags.
What we do today will show up in the hospital data in a few weeks.
What we do today will show up in the death data right before Christmas.
Yesterday we saw 151,000 new cases reported:
Our daily update is published. States reported 1.8 million tests, 151k cases, and 956 deaths. 85,836 people are hospitalized with COVID-19, setting a new record for the 14th consecutive day. pic.twitter.com/t27aVB0FHu
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 24, 2020
I expect today to be the week’s peak as Wednesday tends to be heavy. I expect reported new cases to be low from Thursday until Tuesday. Reported test results has a lag from testing and there is significant day of the week seasonality. I don’t expect many people to get tested on Thursday or Friday this week, and then weekends tend to be light. We won’t have a good sense of what Thanksgiving is doing to our actual numbers until two Fridays from now.
Be careful, be safe, be thankful.