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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Rev. Raphael Warnock: Everyone’s Hair Is On Fire (and 4 unrelated reminders)

Rev. Raphael Warnock: Everyone’s Hair Is On Fire (and 4 unrelated reminders)

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Fundraising emails are ever-present, but these feel different.

They all have the same specific request: asking for donations for Raphael Warnock.  Not for Fair Fight, not for both candidates.  For Rev. Raphael Warnock.  People who desperately want both candidates to win are coming hat-in-hand, pleading for money for Raphel Warnock.

Mitch McConnell-aligned super PACs just booked an unprecedented $70 MILLION ad campaign against us – and our opponent is spending at least $23 million of her personal fortune to buy this seat.  

Sorry, fuckers, democracy is not for sale.

I know you guys have given and given and given til it hurts.  But Rev. Warnock doesn’t have a $23 million dollar fortune to dip into, and that fucker Mitch McConnell’s and company just booked a $70 million dollar ad campaign, ads filled with lies.  Racism, fear and lies, that’s what they are selling with these ads.

Let’s make Mitch McConnell irrelevant.

Raphael Warnock

Goal Thermometer

Barack Obama:

Join me in supporting Reverend Warnock before it’s too late.

Rachel Maddow:

If you have money to donate, now is the time!

Open thread.  Also:

Wind of Change Podcast Discussion

Plus, those of you who are interested in the Wind of Change podcast discussion, please weigh in on evening vs. daytime and weekday vs. weekend.

Ghosts of Holidays Past

Also, a quick reminder to send in your pictures for the Ghosts of Christmas Past, oops make that Ghosts of Holidays Past series we are starting next week during the On The Road After Dark time slot.

Major Major’s Hogfather Book Discussion

Hogfather thread will be on Sunday (tomorrow) at 3pm Eastern.

Calendar Update

All calendar orders have already shipped, with the exception of one of the two calendars that were ordered today.

Adding the other BJ thermometers for people who prefer to donate to other relevant funds, as well.

Balloon Juice for Fair Fight

Goal Thermometer

America Votes – Georgia (this is split between organizing groups on the ground)

Goal Thermometer

John Ossoff

Goal Thermometer

Reader Interactions

109Comments

  1. 1.

    Mike in NC

    Moscow Mitch will be happy to pour $500M into Georgia senate races to remain the most powerful man in DC.

  2. 2.

    Ten Bears

    There’s a rumor that there might be some “irregularities” with Mitch “the Mole” McConnell, Manchurian Senator, married to a communist chinese princess, ‘s “re-election”. It would appear he got more votes than there are registered voters.

    I didn’t start the “irresponsible not to speculate” thing, that was someone rich and famous

    The ends justify the means.

  4. 4.

    Walker

    Is there evidence that all this money matters? One of the take aways after Nov 3 was a lot of people saying it does not — that a lot of money is being set on fire. You need enough for people to know who you are. But after that?

  5. 5.

    CaseyL

    I’m happy to give $$ to Warnock, but wasn’t there also a discussion that turnout and GOTV was the most important thing to fund? And, therefore, we should give money to Stacey Abrams’ organizations, not to candidates?

    ETA:  Fair Fight, here.

  6. 6.

    Old Dan and Little Ann

    My wife has been reading Michelle Obama’s book and filling me in with info. for days.  The other night I dreamt I was standing in a room with PBO shooting the breeze like we were old friends.  I told him, “My wife has a new favorite author.  You may have heard of her.  It’s your wife.”  It was the happiest dream I’ve had in a long time.

  8. 8.

    Trapped Lurker

    Just donated, even though I had decided I was done setting money on fire this cycle…

    you guys are persuasive ?

  9. 9.

    WaterGirl

    @Walker:

    Is there evidence that all this money matters? One of the take aways after Nov 3 was a lot of people saying it does not — that a lot of money is being set on fire. You need enough for people to know who you are. But after that?

    That may be a fair question to ask in a general way.

    We may have learned from the 2020 races that some seats are likely unwindable no matter how much money you throw at them.

    This is not that situation.

    Also, polling has them neck-and-neck.  The candidates are only one point apart in the polls.

    There are vicious attack ads on Rev. Raphael Warnock that need to be countered.

    These two races are for control of the US Senate.  Is that critical to you?  If not, you should most definitely not donate.

  11. 11.

    WaterGirl

    @CaseyL: Yes, there definitely was.  But in the last week, the $100 million from the McConnell-related PAC + the $23 million of Loeffler’s own money – for ad buys that are filled with lies and fear tactics – changes the dynamic.

    Right now, I believe they need to counter those ads.  So while Fair Fight and all the other organizing groups are doing their thing for turnout, ads have to be answered.

    Candidates get a WAY cheaper rate for TV ads than do groups that are not candidates.

    The fight is on multiple fronts right now, and some plans always change based on what is happening on the ground.

  20. 20.

    patrick II

    Last night there was a post on the latest Republican attempt to undermine Biden by pulling CARE act funds from the FED and limit the FED’s ability to lend money.  I commented that they must see some new polling to be bold enough to hold up the stimulus bill again.  Instead, today, I see it is not necessarily new polls, but new money, particularly aimed at Warnock.  I imagine they are going to their playbook and there will be ads of the “lookout for the scary black man” variety.  They seem to be confident it will work in Georgia.  In both their Senate actions and commitment to big money Republicans are telling us how important these two races are.

  21. 21.

    jonas

    @WaterGirl:  Also, polling has them neck-and-neck. The candidates are only one point apart in the polls.

    In southern states in particular, “neck-and-neck” tends to mean the Dem is actually down by 5-10 points. Polling outfits still haven’t figured out how to adjust for this. They get it wrong every single damn time.

  25. 25.

    WaterGirl

    @jonas: I can’t tell whether it’s the term “neck-and-neck” that you’re speaking of.

    Are you are saying that if the polling has them apart by 1%, that it’s really more like 5 or 10%

    Personally, I think all polls are unreliable in these unprecedented times, but he wasn’t this close until recently, so even if it’s not “accurate” it’s still a very good sign, and gives good reason to make a big push.

  26. 26.

    TomatoQueen

    In, my gov employee paranoia grows by leaps and bounds.   The Senate needs a new conscience, and Rev Warnock in the Senate is worth any amount of twitchiness and over-the-shoulder-looking.

  28. 28.

    WaterGirl

    @frosty: I hope it works, too.  I have to remind myself that it’s not our hope or confidence that wins races.  It’s our tangible actions that can win it, if winning is possible.

    Recently on Pod Save America – maybe even in an interview with Offoff, I can’t recall for sure – they were asking folks to come to Georgia to help with this race.

    They weren’t ready for that at the beginning, but I imagine they got their ducks in a row and they are pulling out all the stops to make this happen.

  29. 29.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @WaterGirl: trump draws out infrequent and new voters from all directions, which is one of the reasons the polling is so out of whack

    I wonder how/if the recent story about Loeffler playing fast and loose with the value on her McMansion– The Big and Tasteless!– is playing around the state.

  30. 30.

    WaterGirl

    I hope people keep sending in their holiday photos from years past.  We’ll have collections from Albatrossity and Raven, and I’m also getting pictures in ones and twos that will be turned into collections.

    I think this could be really fun if more folks send in their pics.

    We changed it from Christmas to Holidays, so there really is a war on Christmas!  :-)

    But only Christmas represented so far, so please share your holidays if you’re interested.

  31. 31.

    JMG

    I have no idea how accurate Georgia polls are, but I must point out that if the November elections weren’t close, there wouldn’t be January runoffs to begin with. PS: Times is reporting Trump wants to name nutbar attorney Sidney Powell a special counsel to investigate voter fraud and to seize the nation’s voting machines.

  34. 34.

    WaterGirl

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I hope people are taking a look at her.

    I would think that rich people who cheat should piss off people who are neither, but who knows?

    The thing is Warnock and Ossoff represents what everything that is good about people who want to serve, and Perdue and Loeffler represent everything that is awful about people who don’t give a shit about serving, and instead worship money and power.

    Seems like it should be an easy choice.  sigh.

  35. 35.

    Doc Sardonic

    Polls mean absolutely Jack Shit. Florida had Mango Tango Mussolini down by an average of 4.5 points, he won by 4.7 roughly, a swing of 9.2 points. Georgia had Mango Tango Mussolini up by 5, Joe won by .5 a 5.5 point swing, so  my SWAGU(scientific wild ass guess) for this is that Warnock is either up by less than a point or more likely down by at least 5.

  36. 36.

    Ruckus

    @WaterGirl:

    I get a lot of emails, usually between 60-100/day asking for money. Some for Doc without Borders(1), 2-4 others for non political stuff, and at this time the political ones asking for money are all for GA.

    The thing is that I get ones showing polls, some RW are leading, some are how absolutely horribly he’s losing and send MONEY NOW. The send money now ones do not seem to be attached to RW, or to any of the usual suspects, they are just asking for money. The committee to raise money for argle bargle – JUST SEND MONEY TO SAVE, argle bargle. These particular requestors seem like a bad place to send my hard earned quarters.

  38. 38.

    germy

    SCOOP – Sidney Powell was in Oval Office last night as POTUS discussed making her special counsel for election fraud. @KannoYoungs and me https://t.co/wUB8ZMrPxp— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) December 19, 2020

    Among those pushing back on the idea was Pat Cipollone, Meadows and even Giuliani. But Giuliani separately pushed DHS this week to seize control of voting machines to examine them for possible fraud. DHS said it has no authority to do that. https://t.co/wUB8ZMrPxp— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) December 19, 2020

    The meeting got raucous, with various administration members drifting in and out and different people arguing. Powell told others they were quitters, people people briefed on the meeting https://t.co/wUB8ZMrPxp— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) December 19, 2020

    The fact of the meeting – and Giuliani hope of seizing the voting machines – has alarmed some of the president's advisers, who see his desire to take his refusal to accept the election results as in a dangerous new place https://t.co/wUB8ZMrPxp— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) December 19, 2020

  39. 39.

    Another Scott

    @WaterGirl:  Both, and they’re not consistent. The gap between 48 and 49 is too large, and different between the two graphs.

    At least to these eyes.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  40. 40.

    laura

    I’m in! It’s going to be one heck of a squeaker to control the Senate and it’s an All Hands on Deck moment. I wish I had more to donate until I win the Powerball.

    Im looking forward to the Winds of Change discussion and will Q&A Roadie Brother the Younger who was on Tour for multiple Monsters of Rock and has the inside skinny on all kinds of people and things.

  42. 42.

    dmsilev

    @MattF:

    President Trump on Friday discussed making Sidney Powell, who as a lawyer for his campaign team unleashed a series of conspiracy theories about a Venezuelan plot to rig voting machines in the United States, a special counsel investigating voter fraud, according to two people briefed on the discussion.
    It was unclear if Mr. Trump will move ahead with such a plan.
    Most of his advisers opposed the idea, two of the people briefed on the discussion said, including Rudolph W. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, who in recent days sought to have the Department of Homeland Security join the campaign’s efforts to overturn Mr. Trump’s loss in the election.

    When Rudy is the voice of reason, we’re well and truly through the looking glass.

    Does Mirror Universe Trump have good hair?

  43. 43.

    patrick II

    @JMG: 
    Only someone crazy enough to get fired from Trump’s elite strikeforce legal team could possibly be named as a special counsel by Trump. Crazy is a necessary qualification. It is odd how he fires the worst of them because of some scandal/show-of-incompetence and then brings them back later for an even more scurrilous task.

  45. 45.

    Yarrow

    For these races it’s really a matter of getting voters out to vote. Stacey Abrams with Fair Fight and groups allied with her seem to have the best handle on how to do this.

  46. 46.

    hitless

    @jonas:  Agreed – the red shift is pretty well documented now, and it means that unfortunately these races aren’t actually close.

  47. 47.

    Jinchi

    @jonas: In southern states in particular, “neck-and-neck” tends to mean the Dem is actually down by 5-10 points.

    Dems need to stop thinking like this. They’re not going to close the gap unless they turn out to vote and they aren’t going to turn out to vote if they convince themselves they’re down by 10.

    And it’s not even true. Laura Kelly was neck and neck or slightly trailing in the Kansas governor’s race 2 years ago. She won by 5.

    Georgia is a fight, but it’s winnable. Spend your energy getting people to the polls. You can complain about the pollsters later.

  48. 48.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @MattF:

    Maggie Haberman @maggieNYT · 32m
    Adding to the story but two people briefed said Flynn was there as well for this meeting.

    after advocating the president declare martial law in six states to overturn election results

  49. 49.

    HinTN

    Donated to Rev Warnock and I’ve sent postcards to voters through Flip the West. I hope the hell both are effective. I heard a boogidie boogidie boogidie ad on Chattanooga radio against Warnock the other day. I think they’ve figured they can live with Ossoff and go after the scary black man for that slender majority.

  52. 52.

    Yarrow

    @HinTN:

    I think they’ve figured they can live with Ossoff and go after the scary black man for that slender majority.

    It’s also that Warnock has a better chance of winning than Ossoff so they’re going after Warnock in hopes of keeping both seats.

  53. 53.

    WaterGirl

    @Doc Sardonic: You’re not wrong.  But for us to have gotten to the two runoffs, the two R candidates could not get to 50%+1 in the November election.

    Who knows what has happened since, but it’s not unreasonable to think that we could win this.  I think it’s still anyone’s game at this point, which is why I think that anyone who really wants to take the senate this year needs to be all in.  Whatever that means to them.

  57. 57.

    WaterGirl

    @laura:

    Im looking forward to the Winds of Change discussion and will Q&A Roadie Brother the Younger who was on Tour for multiple Monsters of Rock and has the inside skinny on all kinds of people and things.

    Ooh, that sounds interesting!

    Any thoughts on time? One person seemed to be concerned about doing this during the Medium Cool time slot, so I wanted to see where folks stand on that.

  58. 58.

    Yarrow

    @WaterGirl:  Perdue didn’t get over 50% because there was a Libertarian candidate in the race that took enough votes from him. Without the L candidate it’s harder for Ossoff.

    It’s just all about turnout at this point. I think donating to Fair Fight and other organizations working to get people to the polls is the way to go. There will be a drop off in voting with both Republicans and Democrats. Usually Dems are less reliable at voting in runoffs while Republicans show up. The key this time is to get those Dem voters who voted in November to show up one more time. I’m personally not convinced that donating money to the candidates is the best way to do that but who knows.

  59. 59.

    Yarrow

    I missed this earlier. Love that Dr. Fauci did this. Awww..

    Dr. Fauci on @CNN: “I took a trip up there to the North Pole, and I vaccinated Santa Claus myself. I measured his level of immunity, and he is good to go. He can come down the chimney. He can leave the presents. You have nothing to worry about.”
    — Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) December 19, 2020

  62. 62.

    WaterGirl

    @Yarrow:

    I’m personally not convinced that donating money to the candidates is the best way to do that but who knows.

    i think the key point relative to that is that with $100 million dollars of new ads going up right now against Warnock, they have to counter those ads, and candidates themselves get WAY CHEAPER ad rates than any affiliate organizations.  I believe that’s why they are asking for donations to Warnock.

  67. 67.

    Yarrow

    @WaterGirl:  That makes sense. I don’t pay much attention to ads except at a sort of high level – who’s running them, how many for each candidate, positive or negative, etc.  When I was canvassing in the Before Times I got yelled at by a woman who answered the door about all the commercials on TV. Sorry! Not my fault!

  70. 70.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Maggie Haberman @maggieNYT · 38m
    During the meeting, the president asked about Flynn’s suggestion of deploying the military, those briefed said. That was also shot down.

    It’s not that I think it will happen, cause I think Miley and the relevant governors, even Kemp, will tell him to fuck off. But nothing is ever shot down with The Beast, especially with the vicarious machismo he gets from just talking about sending in muscle. But it pisses me off that Senate Republicans are just letting this poisonous crap fly around the political atmosphere.

  73. 73.

    WaterGirl

    I added the BJ thermometers for Fair Fight, Jon Ossoff and America Votes.

    In case you are not familiar with America Votes, this thermometer splits the donations between the various smaller organizing groups who are working in Georgia.

  74. 74.

    Doc Sardonic

    @WaterGirl:  I see Yarrow already covered it, but in his race with Ossoff, Perdue had a libertarian problem that siphoned enough votes away to create the runoff, Loefler just isn’t that popular beyond having the R behind her name. The best shot we have in these head to head races in a more red than purple state like Georgia is to really goose our voter turnout and simultaneously get the MAGATs to stay home.

  75. 75.

    jonas

    @Jinchi:  Georgia is a fight, but it’s winnable. Spend your energy getting people to the polls. You can complain about the pollsters late

    I’m not counseling despair, just clear-eyed realism. And I agree it’s all about getting people to the polls — which we’ve seen especially this year is all about f2f contacts and relationships, not merely big media buys. So I really hope Warnock and Ossoff are taking this money and pouring it into massive on-the-ground GOTV efforts.

  77. 77.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @JMG: …I must point out that if the November elections weren’t close, there wouldn’t be January runoffs to begin with.

    And you would be wrong, drastically so in Warnock’s case, less drastically re Ossoff.

    The Rev finished atop a field of no less than 20 candidates in November, but with just 32.9% of the total votes. If the same electorate were to show up on January 5, and Warnock got every vote cast for other Democratic Party candidates, he’d come in at 2,378,312; adding all November votes for Independents or Greens, that increases to 2,452,810. Meantime the total number of votes for GOP candidates was 2,426,120.

    If everyone who didn’t vote for a Democrat or Republican were to stay home, Loeffler would win by >47,000 votes. If all voters for Independents and Greens showed up and voted for Warnock, he would win by about 26,690 –

    Except that there was also a Libertarian candidate in November who polled 35,431 votes. Will they turn out? Will they mainly vote for Loefller? Will the Independents and Greens turn out? Will they mainly vote for Warnock?

    And this doesn’t even consider voters who didn’t turn out in November.

    Meantime, Perdue outpolled Ossoff in the other Senate race by over 88,000. The only reason there’s a runoff is that a third (Libertarian Party) candidate got just over 115,000 votes, denying Sonny an absolute majority.

    Turnout is going to drive the results in both races. I’m going to send Warnock some cash, but I’ll send a bigger chunk to Fair Fight, since that ought to boost the votes for both our candidates.

  78. 78.

    WaterGirl

    @jonas: I’m sure they have been doing that, are doing that still.

    But if we want to win, $100 million of hate-filled ads against Rev. Warnock cannot go unanswered.

    At this point it’s not just about turnout.  It’s also about calling out the lies they are telling about Warnock.  Just my two cents.

    But I do believe that Stacey Abrams and Barack Obama hold the same belief, or they would not be specifically requesting donations to Warnock.

  79. 79.

    Mike in NC

    @WaterGirl:  One of our local rags likes to publish obscure wingnut op-eds every week. Today it was somebody named Larry Elder, who went on at length about how the media protected Obama over Reverend Wright and now protect Biden over his corrupt son Hunter. ZZZZZZZ

  81. 81.

    WaterGirl

    I just added one more reminder up top.  In addition to the Ghosts of Holidays past series that’s starting on Monday, and the upcoming discussion of the Wind of Change podcast, we also have Major Major’s thread for discussing Hogfather coming up tomorrow (Sunday) at 3pm blog time.

  84. 84.

    WaterGirl

    @Mike in NC: blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.  They will be making shit up until the end of time.

    We need to help people learn to be discerning about information, because disinformation is picking up steam by the minute.

  85. 85.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @HinTN: I think they’ve figured they can live with Ossoff and go after the scary black man for that slender majority.

    And you would be wrong. Go look at the November results: Perdue outpolled Ossoff by ~88,000 and the only reason he didn’t win outright is that the third candidate, a Libertarian, polled ~115,000. What’s the chance Ossoff would get nearly 4/5 of the Libertarian votes to overtake Perdue? Slim and none. His only hope is higher turnout.

    They’re going after Warnock in hopes of depressing turnout in both races so as to sneak both of their SOBs across the finish line.

  88. 88.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @WaterGirl:

    All of those things are true, of course, but there has to be an explicit request to vote for Ossoff and Warnock (to keep McConnell from blocking these programs). Otherwise, I don’t see the point.

  91. 91.

    WaterGirl

    @SiubhanDuinne: I’m sure there was – I just copied that graphic.

    I thought Biden was very specific, and very good, in the ad when listed the things he wants to do and said “I need Rev. Warnock and Jon Ossoff in the senate to get this done.”

  92. 92.

    Zelma

    I despair.  My painter/yardman/take-care-of-the-old-lady-guy informed me that the black candidate in Georgia is really crazy.  As he is not an avid follower of the news, is not active on Facebook and calls himself an independent, I can only wonder where he got this idea.  I should note, we’re in New Jersey, nowhere near Georgia.

    I will pony up more money for Warnock, Ossoff and Stacey.  But I really fear for the country.  I’ve never been this afraid for our democracy and I’ve seen a lot of bad stuff.

  96. 96.

    Yarrow

    @WaterGirl:

    We need to help people learn to be discerning about information, because disinformation is picking up steam by the minute.

    When I bring up the idea of a comprehensive educational program to help people understand and identify disinformation and propaganda it either gets ignored or I get told that using the word “education” is a terrible idea and would turn people off and never work. People here anyway don’t seem very interested in the idea or are actively opposed.

    Other countries are doing it. Finland has an excellent national initiative about it. Here’s one article on how well it’s doing.

  99. 99.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Zelma: I’m in Georgia, and as I type there are two carpenters here with trucks covered in Trump flags and stickers parked in the driveway, but two doors down an investment banker flying a Trump 2024 flag.

    Like COVID, it infects people at all income levels.

  100. 100.

    J R in WV

    @Yarrow:

    I agree with you, strongly, that we need to teach critical thought and analysis skills to the whole population, somehow.

    Wasn’t it Texas that attempted to make teaching critical thinking skills illegal? No surprise there!

    I disagree with you about people here disapproving of that idea, and wish you were less pessimistic about it. Surely if a rural Scandinavian nation like Finland can do it, a rural nation (haha! /s) like America can do it?

  101. 101.

    Steve in the ATL

    @WaterGirl: there are plenty of Warnock ads on tv, at least during SEC football games (the only network tv I watch). But they are always right before, after, or between Loefflee or Perdue ads.

  102. 102.

    Yarrow

    @WaterGirl:  Sure. Maybe get someone who knows something about it involved. Adam might know or maybe know someone.

    @Major Major Major Major:  I haven’t seen that but it would make sense. It would be a great program for all sorts of senior settings and could be tailored to include how to protect yourself online, etc. Probably would be very popular.

  103. 103.

    Geminid

    @Uncle Cosmo: I think the republican strategy is to use fear to drive their voters to the polls so they can vote against the scary Warnock. Once there, they’ll vote for Perdue as well as Warnock’s opponent.                   This strategy is a pure example of exploiting negative partisanship.

  104. 104.

    Yarrow

    @J R in WV:

    I disagree with you about people here disapproving of that idea, and wish you were less pessimistic about it.

    I would refer you to the last time I brought it up – probably about a week ago – and how I was told it was a terrible idea because Americans turn off as soon as they hear the word “education.”

    I’m not sure why you say I’m pessimistic. As I said above, my comments about it are usually ignored. It’s how people have responded here. Look around at your fellow commenters and ask them why they’re ignoring it and not engaging with the topic.

    Personally I find it disappointing because people complain about the media and yet discussion of how to help people be more discerning gets very little attention. Or gets slammed.

  105. 105.

    planetjanet

    @Yarrow:

    The candidates put staff of the ground to knock on doors.  That is the most effective way to persuade and motivate voters.  From my understanding, Fair Fight is doing phone banks and text banks.  I have a text bank shift with then tomorrow.  Apologies to @raven if I text him.  :)

  106. 106.

    Amir Khalid

    @dmsilev:

    Making Sidney Powell special counsel to investigate Hunter Biden guarantees that any case brought against him will be laughed out of court.

Comments are closed.