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You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / Data quality, marginals and COVID

Data quality, marginals and COVID

by David Anderson|  December 30, 20208:44 am| 68 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, COVID-19

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The COVID Tracking Project is showing a significant drop in reported new COVID cases with the seven day moving average peaking at about 213,000 new cases per day on December 17th down to 178,000 new cases per day on the 7 day moving average on December 29th.

Our daily update is published. States reported 1.2 million tests, 195k cases, 124,686 hospitalizations, and 3,283 deaths. Holiday reporting delays are still markedly affecting testing, case, and deaths figures. pic.twitter.com/oRB8RvvvBA

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) December 30, 2020

This is great news if it is not a data quality problem?

There is a pretty good chance that this is a data quality problem and it is a predictable data quality problem. We had a huge and well predicted discontinuity event that is likely messing up the data. Christmas happened. Testing dropped by at least 15% in the same time period.

We see this notably in North Carolina data. On 12/28, only 19,000 tests were reported back to the state with 3,888 people reported as positive on that day as well. On 12/21 (to control for day of the week seasonality) 4479 people were reported as newly positive on ~37,500 tests. Case counts went down significantly even as positivity rates increased by a lot in North Carolina.

What does this mean?

We have a change in the marginal person getting tested. The over-exaggerated version of the story is that in mid-December, people who even thought they might have had an exposure or the sniffles or any reason to suspect that they might have COVID got tested. The positivity rate in North Carolina would still be high which implies a lot of people who are positive and infectious but non-symptomatic were out and about, but the marginal person getting tested had a good probabilty of being negative.

This story changed. Very few people got tested on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day or the day after Christmas. Again, exaggerating, but the only people getting tested on these days were already running a fever and hacking up a lung. The marginal person getting tested over Christmas is far more likely to be positive. This is driving up the positivity rate significantly even as the reported case count is dropping because the drop in testing overwhelms the increase in positivity rate. We are likely seeing a lot more people with either no or modest symptoms walking around without knowledge that they are positive right now.

We are likely to get another testing drought between New Years Eve through January 4th as people tend to not get tested as frequently on weekends plus the holiday will reduce testing. We probably won’t get good data that is comparable to mid-December data until the second week of January.

We do have some data that is higher quality. Our hospitalization data is decent. It has two major challenges. First, hospitalizations lag infections. Today’s record hospitalizations are a reflection of case counts in mid-December. Secondly, hospital admission data also has a changing marginal problem. When there is plentiful capacity, a patient who is a flip a coin decision to admit or keep for another night instead of discharging to home is probably a lot healthier than the patient who is a flip a coin decision to use one of the last three available beds in fifty miles. Patients who would have been admitted when daily hospitalizations were only running at 30,000, 40,000, 50,0000 hospitalizations per day probably are not be admitted when hospitalizations are running at 110,000+ hospitalizations per day. Sewage system data is reliable and near real time. But it is not universal.

So when we think about COVID data, we need to know about external shocks that change the nature of the current marginal in relationship to the previous marginal and also think about lags. Thinking about the quality of the data and its quirks helps with making effective interpretation.

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Reader Interactions

68Comments

  1. 1.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 30, 2020 at 8:53 am

    I’ve been assuming it’s a data artifact caused by Christmas.

  2. 2.

    dmsilev

    December 30, 2020 at 8:59 am

    They’ve been pretty clear that holidays==weird and not to put too much faith in the case numbers until a week or so into January.

  3. 3.

    Cervantes

    December 30, 2020 at 8:59 am

    They say right there that holiday reporting delays are affecting the numbers. I don’t think we’ll really know until next week.

  4. 4.

    Zzyzx

    December 30, 2020 at 9:02 am

    I actually predicted this right before Thanksgiving just based on the second derivative turning negative. I knew the holidays could mess it up, but it would be consistent with other peaks for us to be in the slow decline phase. I’m generalizing from a sample size of about 10 or so, so I was hopeful more than sure.

  5. 5.

    Cheryl Rofer

    December 30, 2020 at 9:04 am

    New Mexico cases have been going down for the past month. It’s pretty consistent, but let’s see how it goes after the holidays.

  6. 6.

    David Anderson

    December 30, 2020 at 9:19 am

    FYWP ate half the post about the data quality issues we’re facing.

  7. 7.

    dmsilev

    December 30, 2020 at 9:22 am

    @David Anderson: Ah, that explains.

    Locally (Los Angeles), your point about the hospital admission criteria has become quite stark. Hospitals are jam-packed with COVID patients and they are turning away as many people as they possibly can.

  8. 8.

    no comment

    December 30, 2020 at 9:23 am

    I’ve been having trouble getting tested. Covid-19 testing sites near me (ones that I’m aware of) are requiring appointments, and the appointments are all booked up. If my area is typical, then some people with new infections are unable to get tested, and the increased number of tests may mean an even longer time between nose swab and test results.

  9. 9.

    Kristine

    December 30, 2020 at 9:28 am

    @Cheryl Rofer: Illinois has been doing well, too. But I’m concerned about the Christmas bump.

  10. 10.

    Cameron

    December 30, 2020 at 9:38 am

    Unfortunately it appears that January will be an extension of 2020.

  11. 11.

    Searcher

    December 30, 2020 at 9:51 am

    @Cameron: My current prediction is that the final peak will be sometime around a week before the inauguration, give or take a week, and further peaks later in the winter will be tempered by the slow rollout of the vaccines.

    The timing will end up perfect for some people to say Biden fixed everything and others to claim it was all a conspiracy to make Trump look bad, but largely be a coincidence of the timing of Christmas and the uncontrolled spread beforehand.

  12. 12.

    HinTN

    December 30, 2020 at 9:52 am

    @no comment: Here in The Great State of Tennessee, the local county Health Departments have been running drive through testing from 0900 to 1200 every weekday. If you’re in line at 1200, you will get tested. The turnaround from the lab in Nashville has been consistently running around 48 hours.

    For a state with a governor who cannot bring himself to issue a mask mandate, this is pretty damn good IMO.

  13. 13.

    sab

    December 30, 2020 at 9:54 am

    @no comment: No testing is such a huge problem. My stepson got tested at work: asymptomatic positive. He had been to his fiancee’s parents for Thanksgiving. His fiancee works with special needs pre-schoolers. Without his work  testing they would have been out spreading. They have been mostly careful, but it just takes one idiot at work. Or one mostly careful.

  14. 14.

    Barbara

    December 30, 2020 at 9:57 am

    I think the answer is in the dashboard that the Washington Post posts as part of its overall tracking site:
    New daily reported cases fell 15.5%
    New daily reported deaths fell 16.6%
    Covid-related hospitalizations rose 5.6%

    The fall in cases is probably due to the circumstances you outlined, and the “death” number is always affected by reporting patterns, e.g., is always lower over weekends and on holidays.  But the hospitalization data is real time and not affected by the vagaries of weekends and holidays.  That’s probably where the real story can be found.

  15. 15.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers was fidelio

    December 30, 2020 at 10:06 am

    Our data pattern here in Tennessee is consistent with this—we’ve had a big drop in total tests and in positive results, but the positivity rate has been around 22-23%.
    Besides the holiday, the bombing has affected communications and thus reporting, and there was (by our standards) a fair amount of snow in the eastern part of the state, which would keep people home instead of searching for test sites unless they were really worried.

  16. 16.

    JaneE

    December 30, 2020 at 10:18 am

    Our numbers in the back of beyond are still going up at an alarming rate – anything in double digits had been rare, and now we are seeing daily jumps of teens and twenties or thirties after the weekend gap in reporting.  Comments on the local website indicate that people are having trouble accessing tests, or free tests.  The Indian Health clinic used to test all comers, now restricting to tribal members.

    We were so proud of stopping our case count back at 19 by April.  As of yesterday 618.  County population is less than 20,000.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    December 30, 2020 at 10:24 am

    @David Anderson: (FYWP seems especially cranky lately when you include a Tableau graph (often only parts of the graph are visible).  Dunno if that helps you figure out what’s going on.)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    Gravenstone

    December 30, 2020 at 10:42 am

    @Matt McIrvin: Yeah, my county’s numbers have been sitting just shy of 6k for a few days. I imagine they’ll vault past that level once the backlogged numbers are reported.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    December 30, 2020 at 10:46 am

    Speaking of data, it would be good if AZ-Oxford were more forthcoming about the data on their vaccine.

    1. It's a real pity the UK drug regulator, MHRA, doesn't hold public advisory committee meetings to assess #Covid vaccines, in the way @US_FDA does. Would have been fascinating to listen to a detailed analysis of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine's emergency use application.

    Thread

    — Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) December 30, 2020

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    December 30, 2020 at 10:58 am

    I am under the impression that measuring Positivity Rates cover these testing spikes.

  21. 21.

    Gvg

    December 30, 2020 at 11:04 am

    I am honking some testing would actually close for holidays, and labs too, not to mention the reporting agencies. I know it’s important work, but these places have been going flat out for months now and humans need a break. That would mean it isn’t possible to get tested even if you should.

    Around here, the biggest employer and well institution, is the big state University, which does its own testing because it can and the county can’t. That means if you are a student or employee, you have been able to get tested, nearly any time you have wanted. I have been keeping as isolated as possible but get tested about every 2 weeks, so that I don’t become a spreader without knowing. My family however can’t get tested easily which is a problem because of needing to pass my nephew back and forth to my parents for online schooling. My sister a doctor at the va has to pay for rapid tests just so she can see him sometimes.
    Next semester stars soon and it’s going to be even harder. His home county ended his online program and the family is going to try the home school version which has no interaction. It isn’t going to be fun. The University is still planning more spring classes face to face but have made testing mandatory.  I think this is going to go poorly, but I have no say.

  22. 22.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 30, 2020 at 11:07 am

    @Searcher:

    The timing will end up perfect for some people to say Biden fixed everything and others to claim it was all a conspiracy to make Trump look bad, but largely be a coincidence of the timing of Christmas and the uncontrolled spread beforehand.

    Hope so. The worst case is that the Republicans in Congress and the states try their hardest to impede everything, slow-walk the vaccines and spread FUD, so that nearly uncontrolled spread can create the conditions to declare Biden a failure and win big in future elections. I’m concerned that people aren’t getting vaccinated even when they can–the stories of hospital staff refusing vaccination are freaking me out.

  23. 23.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 30, 2020 at 11:12 am

    …and, boy, it’s a pity that MWRA sewer data cuts off just before Christmas.

  24. 24.

    Searcher

    December 30, 2020 at 11:20 am

    @Matt McIrvin: Honestly I’m not sure there are enough denialists and Trumpers left to push this wave higher.  If they’d kept their heads down between Election Day and New Years and waited until later to run around licking lampposts, they could have timed it to make Biden’s first 100 days the worst of the pandemic, but now I’m not sure?

  25. 25.

    jonas

    December 30, 2020 at 11:32 am

    @Matt McIrvin: the stories of hospital staff refusing vaccination are freaking me out.

    It seems to me that that would be a condition of employment or something with front-line workers.

  26. 26.

    Elliott

    December 30, 2020 at 11:35 am

    Christmas brought out a lot of bad behavior by people who knew better. People at work showing me pictures of 5 or 6 families gathered insisting that because it was outside (it was) and they kept their masks on except for the picture and socially distanced (no way to check) that it was ok. These are healthcare workers practicing magical thinking cause family and the holidays HAD to go together.

  27. 27.

    Cameron

    December 30, 2020 at 11:35 am

    My God.  An honest statement.  I’ve heard of them, but haven’t seen any in a while.

    https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/90465

  28. 28.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 30, 2020 at 11:36 am

    @Searcher: The next couple of months will be the worst of the pandemic–even Biden is saying that, to prepare expectations. The question is just how much difference real, competent federal leadership makes, starting from this big a disaster, and with so much of the public openly primed to do the opposite of whatever the federal government says out of spite. The Biden administration is going to have to start building from nothing.

    I wonder whether it’s ever going to be possible to get even 50% of the population vaccinated. I think we’re probably going to have to just wait for the virus to burn through the large fraction who won’t get the vaccine even when it’s available. Though, given their other behavior, that may only take another year or two–and it does mean more doses for the rest of us, provided somebody can get them out there.

  29. 29.

    Cameron

    December 30, 2020 at 11:38 am

    @Matt McIrvin: I’m starting to come around to GF’s way of thinking: “If they don’t want a vaccination, fine.  I get one sooner.”  Selfish, but…..

  30. 30.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 30, 2020 at 11:47 am

    @Cameron: This is great except that I’m guessing 100 days is way too little time to get to a place where we can reopen most schools. I understand that it’s a traditional time period to talk about with a new presidential administration. Not even the most ambitious plans I’ve seen propose mass vaccination of teachers and school staff on that schedule, which would mean it has to happen without that, so all those people would be in quite a bit of danger (again).

  31. 31.

    Major Major Major Major

    December 30, 2020 at 11:52 am

    Thanks for the PSA on reading the figures–always great to have a good reference post.

    We do seem to be turning the corner, just extrapolating from what we *do* have of national trends. Thanksgiving didn’t cause a catastrophic bump in cases, thank god, though of course Christmas has seen more travel, so who knows. January is definitely going to suck hard in a lot of places. Especially if this new variant is in fact significantly more infectious, though the UK’s 70% figure was an ass-pull so we don’t have a good handle on that either… blech. At least we’re finally at the beginning of the end.

    @Matt McIrvin: It’s my understanding that in-school transmission simply reflects broader community transmission, so if you get the latter under control, you can reopen, and close them again when community transmission gets too high. We’ve been doing it in NYC.

    ETA: We also need to consider how many poor kids are being left behind for like, a whole year, if we don’t prioritize schools. This will haunt some of those kids for life.

  32. 32.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 30, 2020 at 12:03 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Thanksgiving didn’t cause a catastrophic bump in cases

    It certainly did seem to cause a significant rise in the East! Maybe not as much in the places that were coming down from a big wave earlier in the fall. I’m personally treating this as more or less a return to conditions from last March/April.

  33. 33.

    PsiFighter37

    December 30, 2020 at 12:05 pm

    Given the past kink in data around Thanksgiving, I think it’s clear that the data over the next week or so is going to be choppy, but the overall picture is clear – we are leveling off at 200k+ infections and 3k+ deaths daily. That is terrible, and there needs to be serious action taken to yank the curve downwards. Otherwise, we are staring down the barrel of losing 50,000 people every single month…that is unfathomable. I think there will inherently be a letup once the warmer part of spring comes, but then you will likely have spikes in the South.

    It’s just a crazy mess, and I do not envy Biden’s folks getting to deal with this, especially since they know they are being handed a flaming bag of dogshit with no plan whatsoever.

  34. 34.

    Cameron

    December 30, 2020 at 12:07 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: I agree.  Perhaps honesty is relative, when we look at what’s been dished out to us for the last 4 years.

  35. 35.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2020 at 12:09 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Hope so. The worst case is that the Republicans in Congress and the states try their hardest to impede everything, slow-walk the vaccines and spread FUD, so that nearly uncontrolled spread can create the conditions to declare Biden a failure and win big in future elections.

    Any shred of evidence anywhere that any state governor or other official is doing anything to slow the deployment of the vaccine?

    I could imagine Trump pulling a stunt like this, but not too many other presumably sane officials.

  36. 36.

    jonas

    December 30, 2020 at 12:09 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Thanksgiving didn’t cause a catastrophic bump in cases, thank god,

    Except that it did. Why do you think all our hospitals and ICUs are overflowing now? We’re probably on to the second generation of Thanksgiving infections right now (people infected by people infected during Thanksgiving), but had people just stayed the fuck home this one time, things would still be serious, but not this horrible.

  37. 37.

    PsiFighter37

    December 30, 2020 at 12:14 pm

    Also, we have no idea how many people are infected because of Christmas / New Year’s gatherings. The TSA is showing the highest number of air travelers since the pandemic started. To me, that’s a really bad sign.

  38. 38.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2020 at 12:15 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: 

    @Matt McIrvin: It’s my understanding that in-school transmission simply reflects broader community transmission, so if you get the latter under control, you can reopen, and close them again when community transmission gets too high. We’ve been doing it in NYC

    Tracking the course of the virus has got to be a challenge. Consider students. I would think that kids age 6 through 12 move through society differently than kids age 12 through 17. And college age adults age 18 through 21 move through society differently than the younger groups.

  39. 39.

    West of the Rockies

    December 30, 2020 at 12:18 pm

    Meanwhile, 20,000,000 shipped vaccines have resulted in only 2.1 million people  actually receiving it.  Trump blames the states.  Trump and Kushner are vile morons.

  40. 40.

    Major Major Major Major

    December 30, 2020 at 12:18 pm

    @jonas: If there had been a catastrophic bump in cases after Thanksgiving then I would expect it to have shown up in hospitalization figures by now. Instead we’re seeing the expected trajectory based on data from before the holiday. Did it change some scalars on the curve? Probably. But you aren’t seeing an inflection. (Reposting tweet from post for reference)

    Our daily update is published. States reported 1.2 million tests, 195k cases, 124,686 hospitalizations, and 3,283 deaths. Holiday reporting delays are still markedly affecting testing, case, and deaths figures. pic.twitter.com/oRB8RvvvBA— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) December 30, 2020

    ETA as David says, “Today’s record hospitalizations are a reflection of case counts in mid-December.” We’re past any incubation lag etc. Median time to symptoms is like five days?

  41. 41.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 30, 2020 at 12:19 pm

    @Brachiator: There’s ambiguous/contradictory scientific data, too. Are preteen schoolchildren not significant spreaders, or are they the worst asymptomatic spreaders of all? I’ve seen papers implying both, and that has a huge effect on what policy you want.

  42. 42.

    Major Major Major Major

    December 30, 2020 at 12:24 pm

    @Brachiator: Here are some recent UK results on the matter. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55340597

    The survey found a higher percentage of staff and pupils testing positive for the virus in secondary schools than primary schools – around 1.47% compared to around 0.8%.

    Roughly 1.2% of the general population is estimated to have had the coronavirus during the same period, according to the ONS.

    Dr Shamez Ladhani, the study’s chief investigator and a consultant at Public Health England, said: “While there is still more research to be done, these results appear to show that the rate of infection among students and staff attending school closely mirrors what’s happening outside the school gates.

    “That’s why we all need to take responsibility for driving infections down if we want to keep schools open and safe for our children.”

    The researchers are trying to find out more about the role of schools in the spread of the virus – something that has been a challenge so far.

    The key is to discover whether infections are more likely to be brought into school from outside, or are starting in school and moving into households in the community.

    […]
    Data from PHE so far suggests infections in school year groups are being introduced from different sources rather than being spread between pupils in schools, but genetic analysis of virus strains is needed to confirm this, Dr Ladhani says.

    Like everything else, it’s complicated…

    ETA: Here’s a Nature article about the topic as well https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3

    Data collected globally have previously shown that schools can reopen safely when community transmission is low.

    But even in places where community infections were on the rise, outbreaks in schools were uncommon, particularly when precautions were taken to reduce transmission. More than 65,000 schools in Italy reopened in September, as case numbers were climbing in the community. But only 1,212 campuses had experienced outbreaks four weeks later1. In 93% of cases, only one infection was reported, and only one high school had a cluster of more than 10 infected people.

    In the state of Victoria, Australia, where a second wave of COVID-19 infections surged in July, large outbreaks linked to schools and childcare centres were also rare, although schools were only partially open. Two-thirds of the 1,635 COVID-19 infections in schools were limited to a single case, and 91% involved fewer than 10 people.

    Primary school students come out ahead of more adult-like humans in this analysis as well.

  43. 43.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2020 at 12:30 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    There’s ambiguous/contradictory scientific data, too. Are preteen schoolchildren not significant spreaders, or are they the worst asymptomatic spreaders of all? I’ve seen papers implying both, and that has a huge effect on what policy you want.

    Collecting and analyzing the data as the pandemic progresses is a heck of a challenge.  And asking the right questions about the data.

    I don’t know what one particular study said, but I recall a science reporter making a fundamental error in assuming that what applied to a six year old student applied equally to all students of every age, in his or her criticism of government policy. And it was unclear what age range was discussed in the study being described.

  44. 44.

    VeniceRiley

    December 30, 2020 at 12:31 pm

    I hear the inland counties are having a horrible time of it. Had a young relative die in a hospital hallway, and many are sick, even the very carful safety compliant ones. My roommate has 10 dead in her extended family.

  45. 45.

    Another Scott

    December 30, 2020 at 12:32 pm

    @jonas: +1

    Every day that the number of infected people is high means that 2-4 weeks later there will be even more infections, illness, and death.  The fact that we couldn’t beat down the national daily infection numbers in the 10s or hundreds after the March-April wave (the minimum daily 7 day average was around 17,000) should have told everyone that it was going to come back and be much worse in each successive wave until most people are vaccinated.

    ETA – Oh, and Superspreaders.

    Fauci and Biden are saying the same thing.  This pandemic is far from over.

    :-(

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  46. 46.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2020 at 12:44 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

     

    Good stuff. Thanks. But here is a set of questions.

    The key is to discover whether infections are more likely to be brought into school from outside, or are starting in school and moving into households in the community.

    It’s also about people moving through social spaces.  So, we want to know if younger children are more or less likely to be able to spread the virus. That’s one question.

    But let’s also say that you have a brother, age 7 and a sister, age 14. The 7 year old may just go to school and come home and play.  The 14 year old may hang out with friends. But then they come home and mix with other households.  And later there is a party where both kids come into contact with other kids and adults. And then, during Christmas and New Years, there is more mixing with other kids and adults. Some of the adults and older teens could bring the virus from work.

  47. 47.

    MomSense

    December 30, 2020 at 12:48 pm

    Have there been comparisons between the few states with adequate testing capability and the rest of the states? Just watch the trends here in Maine where we have adequate testing and there is no way the COVID cases are decreasing nationwide. Thanksgiving was a clusterfuck and Christmas New Years is going to be worse.

  48. 48.

    Geoboy

    December 30, 2020 at 12:50 pm

    @Searcher: “…it was all a conspiracy to make Trump look bad.”  He seems do just fine in that regard without needing any help at all.

  49. 49.

    Bill Arnold

    December 30, 2020 at 12:51 pm

    This will be interesting for some and is free to download until Dec 31 (the author says; I downloaded the pdf a couple of days ago):
    The Four Black Deaths (Monica H. Green, The American Historical Review, 17 December 2020)

    The Black Death, often called the largest pandemic in human history, is conventionally defined as the massive plague outbreak of 1346 to 1353 C.E. that struck the Black Sea and Mediterranean, extended into the Middle East, North Africa, and western Europe, and killed as much as half the total population of those regions. Yet genetic approaches to plague’s history have established that Yersinia pestis, the causative organism of plague, suddenly diverged in Central Asia at some point before the Black Death, splitting into four new branches—a divergence geneticists have called the “Big Bang.” Drawing on a “biological archive” of genetic evidence, I trace the bacterial descendants of the Big Bang proliferation, comparing that data to historical human activities in and around the area of plague’s emergence.

  50. 50.

    Major Major Major Major

    December 30, 2020 at 12:52 pm

    @Brachiator: if (let’s just use the results I cited) school transmission is the same as community baseline, what you’ve done is include the two kids as part of the community at large. So the household becomes the equivalent of a four-adult household. We have to counterbalance this marginal effect with the potential lifelong damage being done to some poor children who are not doing very well with distance learning and will be missing out on basically a whole year of education. So I’d rather open primary schools and close indoor dining. Makes some adults unemployed, cuts down on their transmission due to that and decreased social exposure, in exchange we are educating some children.

    I want to say children (not teens) are less likely to transmit but that’s just my recollection ETA: relatively recent survey of findings https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-contagious-kids-covid-short-dont.html

  51. 51.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2020 at 12:53 pm

    It’s kind of weird knowing that this year in the Los Angeles area we will not be having the Pasadena Rose parade, and the thousands of people lining the sidewalks, the floats, etc. And of course, no bowl game. Tens of thousands of people not coming into the region.

    This has got to help a little bit.

  52. 52.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2020 at 1:13 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    We have to counterbalance this marginal effect with the potential lifelong damage being done to some poor children who are not doing very well with distance learning and will be missing out on basically a whole year of education. So I’d rather open primary schools and close indoor dining.

    I think you might be presuming the adequacy of a solution before correctly defining the problem. I favor closing indoor dining (not sure about outdoor dining), but I don’t know that school vs dining is really equivalent. And this is irrelevant to community spread from family events or interactions with friends.

    I also don’t know that “lifelong damage” is real. But being cold-hearted, I would only note that a pandemic often brings widespread life altering changes, sometimes catastrophic, and there is not much that you can do about it.

    BTW, I do tend to agree that we need to make sure that kids get their education, and I also think that for some poor kids, they are best served by being able to go to a school rather than through remote learning, even when they have computers and adequate broad band.  But this is a parallel problem to mitigating the virus.

    Makes some adults unemployed, cutting down on their transmission, in exchange we are educating some children.

    In my universe, if the government deliberately shuts down the economy and makes some adults unemployed, you automatically kick in increased taxes on individuals and corporations and subsidize individuals and small businesses which might be affected by the shutdown.  Anything less and you invite massive resistance and non-compliance.

    I would also run deficits.  But that’s just me.

  53. 53.

    Major Major Major Major

    December 30, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    @Brachiator: school closures are expensive for poor kids! Especially young ones. And that’s just the one metric, earnings

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/school-closures-will-cost-students-thousands-in-future-earnings-penn-wharton-budget-model-125743955.html

    We owe it to the children to do what we can to keep primary schools open. Here’s another piece to complement my links above. Done properly, in person schooling does not seem to be a driver of community spread, and unlike let’s say dining again, has a big long-term multiplier effect on the public good. https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/kids-school-and-covid-19-what-we-know-and-what-we-don-t

  54. 54.

    Betsy

    December 30, 2020 at 1:24 pm

    David. You are amazing.

  55. 55.

    Another Scott

    December 30, 2020 at 1:38 pm

    @Brachiator: 

    I would also run deficits. But that’s just me.

    Nope. Not just you.

    The solution has been obvious from the beginning:

    1) Close just about everything except for true essentials for one month (extendable) to get the transmission rate down.
    2) Pay everyone (except for true essential workers) a substantial amount to stay home.
    3) Pay true essential workers a substantial bonus to keep working.
    4) Ramp up rapid testing and tracing, PPE production, and all the rest.
    5) Pay businesses what they need to make their bills and to be able to quickly reopen.
    6) Pay state and local governments to make up for damage to their economies.
    7) Have actual experts give daily briefings on the status of the virus and the government agency response.
    8) Have PSAs on all media emphasizing that we’re in this together and that we’re not safe until we’re all safe.
    9) Once the infection rate is down, and it’s clear where the transmission rate is low, reopen things in stages but only if effective testing and tracing is in place.

    And that’s just off the top of my head.

    Shutting down schools for a month or two doesn’t have to be permanently traumatic for kids. (There was an extended teacher strike at the start of my senior year of high school.) What’s more traumatic is the opening and closing and parents not being able to plan their lives and daycare because administrators are doing things in an ad-hoc way because they’re not being given reasonable guidance and because there’s been insufficient effort to control the spread.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  56. 56.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2020 at 1:55 pm

    @Another Scott:

    And that’s just off the top of my head.

    Yep. We are pretty much on the same page here.

    It’s absurd that any political leader would try to either ignore the pandemic or just run things as ordinarily done.

    I also think that the economy will bounce back. Lots of pent-up demand, and money in savings for some groups.  But there will be big hits to some industries, some maybe gone forever.

  57. 57.

    ColoradoGuy

    December 30, 2020 at 2:10 pm

    Just heard my first wild rumor. Family member calls and says Governor Polis (Colorado) is offering vaccines for all over 70 years of age. Just checked the Governor’s page and Denver TV news, and, nope. Not yet. Vaccine distribution is still in the medical-staff and nursing-home stage.

    However, the statewide numbers continue to improve over the last month. The currently-hospitalized number is about 55% of last month’s peak, and daily-new-infections is down from a peak of 5000/day to about 1200/day. The news about the UK variant appearing here was not welcome, although the location was in a remote county.

  58. 58.

    SFBayAreaGal

    December 30, 2020 at 2:20 pm

    @Bill Arnold: This was fascinating. Thank you for posting this.

  59. 59.

    ColoradoGuy

    December 30, 2020 at 2:21 pm

    I guess I was wrong. According to the Denver Post, us olds are getting moved to a higher-priority group.

  60. 60.

    Major Major Major Major

    December 30, 2020 at 2:31 pm

    @ColoradoGuy: Just heard this from my dad too! Can’t wait for him to get it.

  61. 61.

    Brachiator

    December 30, 2020 at 3:03 pm

    @Bill Arnold:

    Very interesting stuff. Oddly enough, I recently finished a popular history of Genghis Khan, and so some of the names and places are familiar.

  62. 62.

    ColoradoGuy

    December 30, 2020 at 3:13 pm

    Remarkably, the Group 1A vaccinations (medical staff statewide and nursing homes) are done. Colorado moves to Group 1B today, and in a startling announcement from the Governor, all 70+ people in the state now qualify. The governor expects the entire population of 70+ (about 330,000) to be done in four weeks.

  63. 63.

    J R in WV

    December 30, 2020 at 3:28 pm

    @JaneE:

    We were so proud of stopping our case count back at 19 by April. As of yesterday 618. County population is less than 20,000.

    Our county is pretty rural for back east in WV, about that population, DHHR number for us is around 780 cases in the county. No Indian Health Services in this very white county.

    ETA: My point was that your total of 618 is not out of line compared to my eastern rural county.

  64. 64.

    J R in WV

    December 30, 2020 at 4:26 pm

    @ColoradoGuy:

    Remarkably, the Group 1A vaccinations (medical staff statewide and nursing homes) are done. Colorado moves to Group 1B today, and in a startling announcement from the Governor, all 70+ people in the state now qualify. The governor expects the entire population of 70+ (about 330,000) to be done in four weeks.

    How can this be? Isn’t Colorado owned and operated by a liberal Demon-rat?  //s

    I’m 70, wife is 71 going on 72… perhaps we should appear to move to Colorado in order to get shots? Half serious here.

    No sign of wide spread vaccinations here in WV, even though we have a Republican billionaire business coal-man running the state! //s

    I will confess he’s ordered mask wearing state wide since the beginning. Uptake when I turn left into Charleston is very good, 98+%. Mask wearing when I turn right into the rural county is more like 85-90% in private businesses, so not as effective.

    I know health dept workers in Kanawha county have begun their vaccinations, and I think workers at the hospitals are also started. But pharmacies do not appear to have any provisions for Covid vaccinations so far as I can tell on the internet.

  65. 65.

    J R in WV

    December 30, 2020 at 4:59 pm

    And another thing:

    Who says missing a year of school is wholly a bad thing? Why? If everyone takes a year longer because of the pandemic to graduate from school at any level, isn’t everyone playing on the same level playing field?

    Immanantize’s son Immp enrolled a year late at Rice because of his unique health problem, will that put him at a disadvantage 5 or 6 years from now? I think not. Nor should any kid in school right now at any grade level be disadvantaged because of conditions beyond their control. Like the Trump Plague!!

    I think we need to just take it for granted that the pandemic has a huge impact on everyone, teachers, workers, students, everyone. No one should be allowed to discriminate based upon age or time to complete a standard cycle of any sort, ever, and especially not now. If you graduate from high school at 16 or 17 or 18 in part depends upon your date of birth. A completely random uncontrollable event!

    If I had been born 5 days later I would have been the oldest kid in my class, instead I was nearly always the youngest, until I hit college where some students skipped a class in boarding schools.

    Just my $0.02 on this issue discussed some up above… last again?

  66. 66.

    sab

    December 30, 2020 at 6:15 pm

    Deleted. Posted halfdone comment by mistake.

  67. 67.

    (((CassandraLeo)))

    December 30, 2020 at 7:10 pm

    @J R in WV: Certain skills, such as language acquisition, are heavily dependent upon age. Ability to speak a foreign language without an accent depends to a large extent upon when you learn it. My Spanish, even now, sounds like a native accent, and I haven’t spoken the language regularly in more than ten years (so the big giveaway that I’m not a native speaker would be me stumbling over my words). I will probably never be able to pass as a native German speaker, even if I spend the next five years in Berlin. The difference, of course, is that I had my first Spanish class at age four and my first German class at age twenty-three.

    That said, there’s a legitimate question as to whether a whole generation of kids having reduced abilities in skills like speaking foreign languages is a lesser concern than the potential risk to public health from having public schools open. I don’t have an informed answer to that, and to some extent it’s probably a subjective question whose answer depends upon a person’s values.

    Cēterum cēnseō factiōnem Rēpūblicānam esse dēlendam īgnī ferrōque.

  68. 68.

    Gvg

    December 30, 2020 at 8:14 pm

    All children are being hurt by this year of virus. Even the rich ones though they may do better. The next 3 or 4 years we will bet trying to catch them up, and everyone who looks at their records will know even 20years from now what 2020 and probably 2021 mean on a transcript.

    i want them to not have dead parents. That will make a bunch of inevitable poorer children with additional emotional results. We will just have to fix the education slippage after. I knew that and accepted that early on.

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