Right now we have well over half of Republicans convinced that Biden did not win the 2020 election legitimately, egged on by GOP elites, so by all means do let me know how to repair democracy with that antecedent condition. https://t.co/IZMyWKYoCy
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) January 3, 2021
Back in 2016 Hillary Clinton caught all kinds of hell for saying that half of Trump’s supporters fell into a “basket of deplorables” and retrospect I fear she was too optimistic.
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) January 2, 2021
“There are but two parties now: traitors and patriots. And I want hereafter to be ranked with the latter and, I trust, the stronger party."
— Ulysses S. Grant, April 21, 1861
— Bruce E.H. Johnson (@BEHJ) January 3, 2021
Some of the same people who voted no on impeachment, saying that the remedy for malfeasance is an election, are now saying the remedy for the election is malfeasance.
— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) January 2, 2021
“I did sedition because I was up for re-election” is a helluva thing to explain to your grandkids.
— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) January 2, 2021
The radicalization of the Republican Party is the biggest political story of our lifetimes and the media is determined to hide it between the lines. It's infuriating.
— Michael Hobbes (@RottenInDenmark) January 1, 2021
and as always, it's worth a reminder that throughout the trump presidency, *the alarmists have been right* https://t.co/zpaqDD8QUY
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) January 3, 2021
Trumpism is a movement that is increasingly characterized by losing repeatedly, but with increasing ferocity and futility. But the futility doesn't excuse the ferocity. At this point, multiple GOP politicos are the wholly-owned subsidiaries of right-wing infotainment shout-hosts.
— David French (@DavidAFrench) January 2, 2021
This held up. https://t.co/DJtmm402HA
— Seth Masket (@smotus) January 2, 2021
Happy Almost-Two-Month Anniversary to Mick Mulvaney writing in the WSJ edit page:
“If the president loses, will he participate in a peaceful transition?
“I am happy to answer: Yes. https://t.co/xNLmIFmOGx— Bill Grueskin (@BGrueskin) January 3, 2021
would it be too much to ask the secessionist shitheads adopt a flag where the stars are replaced with little letter T’s so the rest of us can continue to fly ours on the house without representing them
— kilgore trout, brad r’s brother (@KT_So_It_Goes) January 3, 2021
i have a suggestion pic.twitter.com/XluBMa2EFQ
— gg ?????? (@gina_goldberg) January 3, 2021
Realistically, the only way to avoid this now is to burn that strategy out of existence with an amendment taking Congress' ceremonial role in presidential elections away from them. They can't be trusted with it anymore, because they turned that ceremony into a constitutional bomb
— Pwn All The Things (@pwnallthethings) January 3, 2021
Between Trump telling people Georgia Republicans suck and the left fringe turning on AOC, it kinda seems like Dems are the only ones not in disarray.
— Tentin Quarantino (@agraybee) January 3, 2021
raven
I asked in the dead thread if any of this is illegal?
Frank Wilhoit
Does Drezner not hear himself contradicting himself? This IS democracy. The alternative is institutions, which we have torn down/allowed to collapse.
Punchy
Just read that the Proud Boys have admitted they’ll show on 06Jan, but in colors amd styles that are more typical of ANTIFA. With the tinfoil hat firmly attached, it seems that they may attempt massive vandalism and violence, allow the Trumpisits to blame ANTIFA, and give cover for Trump to declare martial law. Flase flag + lies = crisis.
When the hat is removed, I think they will show up, march, and trip over curbs and contract loads of COVID.
Nora
I think it’s necessary but not sufficient to take away Congress’ ceremonial role in certifying elections.
In terms of sufficient, I think there need to be serious consequences for undermining the Constitution. If you can’t refuse to seat people who have openly attacked the Constitution, then they should all be removed from positions of power — committee chairmanships and the like. I personally believe that no one who has broken his or her oath to defend and uphold the Constitution should be seated in any legislative body or indeed be given a job in any federal agency, but no doubt people will think that’s too harsh.
There HAVE to be consequences.
Spanky
Where can I order a thousand of those “Ask Me About Losing” flag decals with permanent adhesive? I know more than a few trucks in this county that need adorning.
Jerzy Russian
@Nora:
In addition to the things you listed, can the consequences include swift kicks on the nuts?
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Nora: It would make me happy to believe there are consequences for the perps here and not just for democracy. But I don’t believe it.
rikyrah
RandomMonster
Congratulations, we’re arrayed.
rikyrah
@Nora:
??????
SW
I’m getting really tired of people misrepresenting the implosion of the Republican Party as an existential threat to the Nation. Political parties come and go. The Republican Party is in the process of going. It is tearing itself apart and the process is ugly. But that does not mean that the nation, the Republic writ large is in danger. It is just that we live in a two party system and when one of them goes bat shit crazy and dies it is traumatic. It always has been. But the country will do just fine thank you. And be better for it. The modern Republican Party has been a malignant force for at least fifty years now. It will be a blessing when it finally shuffles off its mortal coil and I for one welcome its death throes. Again. Don’t confuse the death of the Republican Party with the death of the Republic. That is just fucking stupid talk. Although if you are a principled Republican it might feel that way.
Baud
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
As soon as Hawley makes some more populist noises against the Biden administration, his sedition will be forgotten.
Our side always talks tough when we’re in the thick of things, but has short memories when it comes time to follow through months or years down the line.
mrmoshpotato
Is their mood cursing a blue streak because ??????
Jerzy Russian
If we are amending the Constitution, then also get rid of the Electoral College. If not that, the expand Congress so that each Congressional district has roughly the same number of people. California should have roughly twice the number of districts it has now. Also too, let the party in the Senate whose members got the most votes choose the Majority Leader (the title of that role might have to change).
Gvg
@Nora: there is no one above congress. Each branch has to be independent. Therefore the only body which can actually punish Congressmen are the other meme era of Congress, who have to be in the majority in order to do it and that is problematic. It hasn’t been till now, which is why only now is this coming up.
i haven’t counted because it’s all insane, but it’s possible that the number of “contested” elections would hurt democrats more than republicans.
refusing to seat an elected representative effectively disenfranchises the voters of that district, which is what democrats are arguing these trumpers are trying to do to Biden’s voters, so I think that is a dead end hope. No committee chairmenships and other things are on the table, but it has to be more subtle.
germy
debbie
@raven:
Sedition is illegal, no? I think the issue is whether or not this is all talk or not.
Wednesday will be a miserable day filled with bullshit.
Baud
@debbie:
No. It’s only illegal if force is involved.
debbie
@rikyrah:
Did Johnson cancel his MTP appearance?
Baud
@debbie:
Wednesday will be a wonderful day when we defeat Trump yet again.
thruppence
Amending the Constitution requires supermajorities of both Houses of Congress and the state legislatures. Not going to happen. The debate would be worthwhile, though.
Baud
@thruppence:
Even before the current sedition, there was talk about amending the constitution to guarantee the right to vote. I think that should be pursued.
germy
Can we get rid of the electoral college?
debbie
@Baud:
So theoretically, if they actually overturned the results of the election without physical force/violence, it would be legal? Could the founders have foreseen this?
germy
Baud
@debbie:
It would be unconstitutional but not necessarily criminal sedition.
cope
I predict 1/20/2021 will be the day trump pivots to being presidential.
debbie
@Baud:
Are there any consequences for an unconstitutional act?
Gvg
@Nora: there is no one above congress. Each branch has to be independent. Therefore the only body which can actually punish Congressmen are the other meme era of Congress, who have to be in the majority in order to do it and that is problematic. It hasn’t been till now, which is why only now is this coming up.
i haven’t counted because it’s all insane, but it’s possible that the number of “contested” elections would hurt democrats more than republicans.
refusing to seat an elected representative effectively disenfranchises the voters of that district, which is what democrats are arguing these trumpers are trying to do to Biden’s voters, so I think that is a dead end hope. No committee chairmenships and other things are on the table, but it has to be more subtle.
@SW: I disagree, because 79 million idiots voted for them so they still have significant power and ability to damage us. Because people in those bubbles are living a different reality and are acting it.
Nothing is idiot proof because sane intelligent people can’t design something to outsmart the truly dumb things they can’t imagine anyone would do.
its also just upsetting to watch many people do really dumb insane things over and over and not learn anything. It’s like the universe is really chaos. This makes sane people’s brains hurt, and that is adding some hyperbole.
oldgold
Trump understands only division.
For four years he ruled by dividing the nation.
Now, he seek to rule the GOP by division.
In the short term division can be powerful, but by definition it always results in less.
Baud
@debbie:
Two possible consequences. First, the Supreme Court might get involved if the Dems sued. Second civil war.
Ken
It’s more merciful than some of the things I’ve been thinking. Also way more merciful than the historical norm.
germy
I wonder if he’s on the pardon list?
MazeDancer
Just finished reading – okay, with heavy skimming – Tom Ricks “First Principles”. It is very good.
He uses letters and other primary sources to illuminate how the classical educations of the Founders affected their thinking.
While there was constant bickering, and some out and out hatred, they all agreed power rested with the people. Their hearts would be as broken as ours are at the venal sedition happening now.
Sometimes, when I hear Steve Schmidt expound rhapsodically on MSNBC, I can hear echos of how some of the more eloquent Founders might have sounded.
thruppence
@Baud: Good idea. Let all of them stand up and say whether they believe all citizens have the right to vote. Clearly many don’t believe it, but get them on the record.
cope
@Gvg: Or as Douglas Adams put it, “…a common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools”.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@rikyrah:
Personally, I’d like each of the talkie programs like Tapper’s have three elements – people and business owners negatively affected by government policies or malfeasance, someone from the government side (or from the same party in the legislature) to defend or excuse it to their faces, and someone offering solutions.
We fail when we neglect those who are losing.
zhena gogolia
@SW:
Thanks. Nice way to look at it.
RandomMonster
Dying, or transforming itself into a fascist party? Only 60K votes stood in the way of a second Trump term and the end of the republic. I can’t feel so confident about the end of the Republican party.
oldgold
@debbie:
Yes, impeachment.
Maddeningly the same feckless GOP Senators behind thwarting the electoral will of the voters, a year go argued against impeachment on the basis the election was near and the voters should be allowed to determine whether Trump remained President.
Baud
@oldgold:
She’s talking about an unconstitutional act by Congress people. You can’t impeach them. You may be able to kick them out of you have the votes, but you probably don’t.
dmsilev
@germy: To get rid of it needs a constitutional amendment, which is really hard. To neuter it is easier. The National Popular Vote Compact, in which states that make up over 270 EVs all agree to have their electors support the national vote winner, is one approach. Expanding the House so that the number of EVs in a state is more closely proportional to population (ie diluting away the two ‘extra’ votes corresponding to the Senators) would be another method, especially if more states then went to the Nebraska/Maine allocation method.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@debbie:
The founders couldn’t have foreseen this, because they were merely men acting with a great deal of self-interest and quite a bit of general ignorance.
Fact was, there were 6 million inhabitants of Great Britain, and 3 to 4 million in the North American colonies in revolt – as revolutionary fervor spread, it would have been logistically impossible for England to prevail on a strategic scale. Best they could hope for was tactical victories.
Punchy
The prob is, ALL elections going forward are likely to go this route. One election in Nov, then drama to see if local boards approve. Then drama to see if state legys approve (and cast the proper electors). Then see if the EC will meet……
And for every GOP attempt fail, at least 7 lawsuits with appeals up the line. A complete shitshow every 2 years. The country will never survive such abuse.
OzarkHillbilly
They tried that. The courts said no.
raven
Johnson is on
mrmoshpotato
@Ken: New norm – fire them into the Sun.
OzarkHillbilly
@thruppence: We already have the GOP on record.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@MazeDancer:
I still can’t forget that Burr was a contemporary of the drafters of a bunch of imperfect documents, educated similarly. President Washington’s top general, also a contemporary and similarly educated, was a paid Spanish agent and involved in plots to hand the Trans-Appalachians to his paymasters.
They were regular dudes prone to regular fuckups, and we make a grave mistake when we deify them or assign them special wisdom.
Baud
@raven:
How weasely is Chuck Todd being?
mrmoshpotato
@raven: Place your bets on when Upchuck Toddler has to “leave it there” and flee to commercial.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud: Hating on weasels – on a Sunday!
germy
Republicans are more willing to go on Chuck Todd’s show than on CNN.
Baud
@mrmoshpotato:
Is Sunday a holy day for weasels?
MattF
I’d like to see more awareness that the ‘voter fraud’ claim is a racial dogwhistle. Republicans won’t retreat on the claim because it sends the precise message they want to the voters they need.
germy
NotMax
@Punchy
No one is going to declare martial law. Eighty-six that crap.
germy
JMG
Trump will try to remain President after 1/20. Don’t know what he’ll try, but he’ll try.
Elizabelle
@Nora: @Jerzy Russian: @dmsilev:
Thank you to those of you who have suggested actions that could be taken.
I despair at the “oh noes, we are powerless.”
A democracy depends on an informed population, and peaceful transition of power. Also a shared set of facts.
The bullshit firehose has encouraged this type of insurrection, and it has got to stop.
germy
NotMax
@NotMax – @Punchy
I will append to what end? Martial law does not alter the cessation of Dolt 45’s term at 11:59:59 on the 20th and the beginning of Biden’s at 12:00:00.
Baud
@JMG:
As someone who has tried to become president, I assure you that trying don’t mean shit.
Matt McIrvin
@SW: We are entering a time of killing. The question is just how much killing there will be. If we’re lucky, we just get a bunch of political terrorists mostly blowing themselves up, like the Nashville guy, with the occasional Oklahoma City-scale bombing or mass shooting, and it’s not a huge general danger.
But it could be worse.
Hell, they’re already killing us and themselves with COVID-19 just by being dumbasses. That’s political and the death toll is comparable to a major war fought on US soil–just hidden away in ICUs and nursing homes. The question is just the extent to which it escalates to guns and bombs.
rikyrah
NotMax
@germy
10 pounds of wrong in a one pound sack.
rikyrah
Kristine
@germy: Yup, those are the people whose feelings we need to coddle because their candidate lost.
Roger Moore
@Gvg:
It’s not stupidity we have to worry about; it’s malice. The real problem is that the Constitution is just a bunch of words; it takes people acting to make those words effective. No matter how clever you are, no matter how many check and balances you put in the system, you can’t protect it from a large enough number of those people deciding to destroy the system rather than preserve it.
rikyrah
SW
@Gvg: I’ve been working for the destruction of the Republican Party all of my adult life and I am not going to start wringing my hands now that it is happening.
rikyrah
Baud
@SW:
Agreed.
Ian
@dmsilev:
Careful. We gotta undue the Gerrymandering first. I personally prefer doing it this way in theory, but if districts are set up to favor rethugs they could gain EC votes in blue states while craftily redistricting out dem voters in red states.
Punchy
@NotMax: You’re assuming they plan to follow the Constitution. After Navarro’s comments today, that assumption is perhaps not warranted.
germy
artem1s
show up without their fetish items? no guns, torches, camo, nazi flags? what fun is that? their social media may call for it, but I don’t think they are very good at getting their folks to conform to centralized organization. most of them will show up in their usual garb, hoping to jump in with the cops when the beat down starts. and I have my doubts any will open themselves up to getting tear gassed by the cops like some common POC.
BlueGuitarist
@dmsilev: Yes, expand the House.
Problem with states allocating Electoral Votes by CD: even more R gerrymandering.
Problem with National Popular Vote Compact: unenforceable and as the current malarkey shows, there’s no chance that Rs would abide by it unless working in their favor.
Roger Moore
@JMG:
He will claim to be the truly elected President and continue pretending to do the job. He will have fake executive orders, a fake cabinet, appoint fake judges, and the whole nine yards. He will maintain the charade as long as it keeps getting attention and money.
rikyrah
rikyrah
germy
rikyrah
debbie
@Baud:
I assume they can be censured or even disbarred. I didn’t realize Gohmert used to be a judge; how the fuck can a judge be fomenting violence the way he is?
rikyrah
Roger Moore
@artem1s:
And what happens if a bunch of them show up dressed as antifa and the rest dressed as themselves? Do they attack each other in a case of mistaken identity, or are they smart enough to have some way of recognizing who’s a Proud Boy in antifa clothing? If so, doesn’t it spoil the effect when the ones dressed as Proud Boys stand idly by while the ones dressed as antifa loot and burn?
rikyrah
WaterGirl
@Baud: I think it will be different this time. Too many people recognize how close we came to losing our democracy. And the attacks are still coming.
I don’t think we will forget.
germy
NotMax
@Punchy
It’s feckless, unsubstantiated bullying. That’s not an assumption, that’s holding the lunacies to be self-evident.
Not to say they won’t have their hour to strut on stage, ultimately signifying nothing.
Roger Moore
@debbie:
When you elect judges based on popular campaigning, you wind up with dumb asses like Gohmert on the bench.
Baud
@germy:
Raven watched it. I’d like to hear his report.
Delk
Looking out my living room window
SW
Nearly half the country is, by disposition conservative. The burden of this time is on conservatives of intelligence and integrity to form a new party. Without that vision, courage and leadership, that fraction of the country will continue to align itself with this zombie party no matter how twisted and amoral it becomes. It may take a few more outrages but I am confident that my conservative countrymen will rise to the occasion. In the meantime. Buckle up.
Chief Oshkosh
@Nora: Why should they even be on committees at all? The chair ought to be able to simply boot ’em out of the room.
rikyrah
raven
Chuck Todd is doing a good job pushing Johnson
frosty
@Matt McIrvin: “… entering a time of killing.” I’m with the commenter yesterday. Put a lid on it, dude, this over the top Dooming is getting tiresome.
Tim C.
I’m reminded of some polling that took place after the Deepwater Horizon explosion dumped a bazillion tons of crude into the Gulf. (The first of “Obama’s Katrinas” I recall) There was a poll that I can’t find at the moment that asked Americans about the accident and if it made them support off-shore drilling. The answers were “Support Less”, “Stay the same”, or “Support more”
about 11% of people said the accident made them support off-shore drilling more. It made no god-damn sense unless you figure there’s an element that just intentionally lies to pollsters.
A good chunk of the GOP that claims to believe there was fraud is lying and they know it. They know this is what they are supposed to say, their entire political belief system isn’t about truth in the slightest, and they know it. They just hate the “libs” The end. That is perhaps, Trumps only significant insight and political skill. Indecent lying assholes love him.
Baud
@SW:
They will only rise up if we remain strong and united. If we start pretending like the GOP has already killed itself, then they will have no impetus to change.
raven
@germy: That is bullshit, Todd said “The only thing I’ll thank you fo is coming on when no one else would.”
Baud
@rikyrah: Agreed.
Elizabelle
@rikyrah: Agreed.
I see that the KY and SFO homes of Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi were vandalized over the weekend, over the lack of stimulus payments. [Painted on McConnell’s door in Louisville: Were’s My Money [sic]]
Only one of these politicians deserves it. And someone left a pig’s head (I don’t know whether fake or real) and fake blood on Pelosi’s sidewalk.
NotMax
@raven
Presumably “Ron, you ignorant slut” was left on the editing room floor.
//
Delk
Proud Boys aren’t too proud if they have to hide who they are.
Baud
@raven:
Thanks. I don’t trust twitter hot takes. Prefer hearing from Juicers first hand.
Elizabelle
@Delk: Gorgeous. We have grey with light rain. Was 63 and beautiful yesterday in central VA.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@JMG: Trump doesn’t leave the Presidency, the Presidency leaves Trump at noon on January 20th.
NotMax
@frosty
This.
It’s Chicken Little Fil-A.
BSR
@SW:
If the self-destruction of the republican party were only hurting themselves I would be much happier about it. But I fear they are doing significant damage to the nation in the process. This will go on for a while and more damage will occur. I hope the nation survives, or doesn’t have to spend the next 50 years rebuilding.
Just read an interesting commentary from Paul Campos on LGM – both this article and that aren’t helping my mood over the next 3 weeks…
?BillinGlendaleCA
@rikyrah: Funny that, ain’t it?
germy
debbie
@rikyrah:
I hope that is brought up in both Houses on Wednesday.
The Moar You Know
@Baud: Which the patriots, as President Grant termed us, the sane, will lose in very short order as I know who’s got the cops and the guns and it’s not us.
Brachiator
@SW:
Good luck with that. These people have either kept quiet or been marginalized.
Baud
@The Moar You Know:
You can play McClellan. I’ll be Grant.
rikyrah
rikyrah
NotMax
@Baud
You sure your liver can handle it?
:)
WaterGirl
@raven: I will be interested in your take by the end of the interview. Someone upthread put up a tweet that makes it seem like Todd pushed back once, and then continued to let him spew his lies and disinformation
edit: Looks like you got to the end, and your take does not match the tweets above.
debbie
@Baud:
Trump is Sherman, sadly.
artem1s
@debbie:
I think the founders couldn’t imagine instantaneous communication. It seems to me that much of the Constitution and rules for the House and Senate were written to address the very real issue of communications taking weeks and sometimes months to travel from the farthest corners of the colonies and back again. Most times representatives were not compelled by law to poll their constituents on how they would vote on anything, but the founders seemed to think it would be a good idea to bake some things regarding the transfer of power into the Constitution. The ceremonious opening and counting of the EC vote probably has more to do with the need to have a vehicle to formally inform the Congress of a change (or not) in the Executive branch. This issue of instantaneous communication is probably the most compelling reason that Constitutional originalism should be abandoned as a way of interpreting modern law. Too many of the articles were based on appeasing southern colonies on slavery and anticipating insurrection or invasion in parts of the country where the central government couldn’t intervene in time to do any good. Thus we have ‘states rights’ provisions that are mostly obsolete now and are only being retained for the sake of political maneuvering.
WaterGirl
@Elizabelle: Pigs head real. Blood was fake.
sab
@Spanky: Me too. I love that flag (in a sarcastic way.)
JMG
So a lot of Congresspeople and Senators will have to sit in uncomfortable chairs and stay up past their bedtimes on Wednesday. That’s not much of a move as coups go. The question is, then what? The law and constitution have no more cards for the GOP and Trump to play. He’ll either have to attempt to seize (maintain) power by force or slink away to Mar-a-Lago. While Trump’s crazy enough to try, I don’t think more than a handful of Congresspeople are ready to back that play. Those who participate in failed coups tend to fair very badly in the aftermath.
Matt
They can call themselves the “LOL WE DON’T EXIST” party and run a Santa Claus / Easter Bunny presidential ticket in 2024.
mrmoshpotato
@rikyrah:
Oh really, Josh? I guess “fired out of a cannon over the 49th parallel” isn’t “deported.”
Baud
@debbie:
Sherman fought for the patriots and the victors.
Aziz, light!
We said that here in 2008 after Obama’s big win. Will we say it two years from now when the GOP takes both houses of Congress because Democrats don’t turn out for midterms? Trump’s name won’t be on the ballot then.
The Protect White Privilege/Make Rich People Richer Party isn’t going anywhere. It thrives on cognitive dissonance, which will still be the core dynamic of social and right wing media, where truthiness trumps truth. A society in which people prefer lies will never be safe from the possibility of a fascist takeover.
NotMax
@debbie
We’d be a helluva lot worse off if he was Mr. Peabody.
:)
mrmoshpotato
@germy:
Where did they become radicalized, and what Trump humping states do we need to bomb the shit out of because of freedom?
rikyrah
rikyrah
Meet the Press
rikyrah
rikyrah
Brachiator
@JMG:
I bet that Trump’s essential laziness, cowardice and inability to sustain a coherent thought for more than 30 seconds will overcome any crazy desire on his part to attempt a coup.
He will settle for being grumpy at Mar-a-Lago.
rikyrah
The Moar You Know
@Baud: my life ambition is to be Sherman, actually.
raven
@rikyrah: Exactly, I know people here hate Todd so I’m not even going to play. The segment will be available so people can watch it if the want to.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Baud
@The Moar You Know:
I’ve got your commission ready for signature on Day 1.
mrmoshpotato
@Roger Moore:
So they’re going to dress like the divisions that stormed Omaha and Utah beaches? I’m so confused by these cosplay, but real fascist, piles of shit.
WaterGirl
@raven: It is possible to hate Chuck Todd and still think he did a good job today.
I haven’t listened to him in years because i can’t stand him, but it looks like maybe I should give a listen today.
frosty
@Aziz, light!: Democrats turned out in 2018. They’ll turn out in 2022. The dynamic has changed.
jeffreyw
-Comment by Decatur Deb last night over at green footballs
oldgold
I watched both Todd and Tapper this morning. Generally, they covered the same topics. Todd was fine. Tapper was better. Quicker.
Elizabelle
@debbie:
Don’t ever say that. If anything,
trumpis Nathan Bedford Forrest.Does not deserve to suck Sherman’s toes.
artem1s
@Roger Moore:
OMG. Please don’t give them any ideas. Imagine, if you will, The President! A rotating cast of D List ‘celebrities’ who are tasked with passing legislation and sending it to the desk of The President! Who will then Veto! the Loser! out of the competition. A political reality show made in hell. I’m sure the FYNYT David Brooks will give the idea many, many column inches postulating whether Biden and Pelosi should consider passing some of The President!‘s laws for real!
yellowdog
@SW: The GOP is not falling apart; it is consolidating power. We will probably lose the House in 2022.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@rikyrah: Okay, I’ll admit that’s a good line, but according to Media Matters, Ron Johnson is the most frequent Republican guest on MTP. He’s been an idiot all his life, and a source of disinformation for years now. If he’s the only R who will says yes, run a scroll of all the Romney-type Republicans who said no. And frankly, I’m skeptical that Romney or Kinzinger would say no.
Brachiator
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
There’s no studio audience on Meet the Press. Did Todd also have reasonable people on?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’ll admit, I am surprised by this level of smarmy bad faith, even from Ted
frosty
It’s like, I don’t know how many doomscrollers to pie. I’m done for now, gotta get some useful work done. And I’ve finished my coffee.
Baud
@frosty:
Pie them all and let God sort it out.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
My immediate response to that is fuck you, Matt. I think there’s a lot of value in having them on and pushing back. Otherwise, they are on the other channels with no pushback.
Is there a smarter take than that?
debbie
@Matt:
It’s time to resurrect the Know Nothings (at least the name).
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Sounds like typical GOP projection. Based on the quotes above, Ron Johnson is doing it on MTP in spades.
“I know you are but what am I?” is lesson one in GOP debate and media prep.
mrmoshpotato
@Elizabelle: I think it’s a reference to burning part of the country down.
And.
Which historian uncovered Bill’s foot fetish?
Elizabelle
@yellowdog: Have you met our pie filter?
If you are wrong, and I pray that you are, I hope that you make a hellaciously big $$$ contribution to a charity. Put $$$ where your cowardice lives.
debbie
@Baud:
I was thinking more of his slashing, burning, and destroying.
WaterGirl
@frosty: I was going to say “all of them, Katie”, but Baud said it better.
Plus, “all of them Katie” needs to be retired. Permanently.
raven
@Elizabelle: I haven’t seen the pie filter in a couple of days.
debbie
@rikyrah:
Chuckes or Johnson?
Elizabelle
@raven: Interesting. It is definitely there.
WaterGirl
@Elizabelle: I think he’s dead wrong, but where is the cowardice?
Because of the “yellow” in yellow dog? I thought yellow dog meant “I would vote for a yellow dog before I would vote for a republican”.
Or are you equating being defeatist with being cowardly?
I am sincerely asking, trying to understand what you’re saying. Not trying to be an ass.
Elizabelle
@debbie:
trumpis an arsonist.Sherman was a general who showed up in person to fight.
Equating Trump and Sherman is not a good example, at all.
WaterGirl
@Elizabelle: I thought that was an attempt at humor on raven’s part.
mrmoshpotato
@WaterGirl: “some of them Sally, and then the rest of them, Tina”
Elizabelle
@WaterGirl: In saying “oh noes, we are going to lose the House in 2022.”
I find that incredibly cowardly, this far out. And demoralizing.
I don’t care what color yellowdog is (and Yellow Dog, of course, refers to those who always vote Democrat). Yellow is, of course, the color of a lot of urine and pissing oneself.
Also sunflowers, roses, butter, all kinds of good things.
bemused senior
@debbie: Read Sherman’s very excellent autobiography, free from Gutenberg, and you won’t say such a foolish thing.
artem1s
@SW:
gotta give them credit. they decided to vilify competence and education as negatives and now have a very well trained constituency. one that will automatically reject anyone who can maintain the appearance of being decent and not crazy (RMoney) and has enough clout politically to take back control of the party fundraising. Any serious challenger can be easily painted as a RINO and traitor unless they bend the knee to the money. The money people in the GOP have been driving the crazy train – Kochs, Mercers, etc – since before W at least. Until they agree to take their money away from the crazy town, there is no leader who can take over the National GOP. They may be able to hold their own local seats, but that getting harder and harder since Citizen’s United.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
IIRC Sherman was a bit of an asshole when it came to treatment of the Indians. But who wasn’t?
Brachiator
@Elizabelle:
He’s a foolish little kid playing with matches. His guardians, the GOP leadership, refuse to take his matches away.
The voters spanked him and chastised his guardians, and he will go away very soon.
prostratedragon
@rikyrah: An important article. This doctor’s work should get both more money and more recognition, so it can be replicated.
debbie
@Baud:
Especially McClellan. “Nits become lice.”
Elizabelle
@Baud: “Who wasn’t?” is pretty true. For much of the 20th century, too.
debbie
@bemused senior:
Again, I was not referring to character or to anything other than the act of physical destruction—much like Trump is doing now.
oldgold
There is this from Sherman:
”If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve.”
Emma from FL
So how does the martial law thing work? The armed forces have already said “uh-uh, no.” Who does he use to bring California and New York to heel? What happens when “the enemy” starts pushing back– defined as people that refuse to obey orders? Or begin to set up underground railroads? Because I find it hard to believe that the Proud Boys can become a disciplined army.
Baud
@Emma from FL:
It doesn’t work. It’s doom porn.
mrmoshpotato
@Brachiator:
Can he take his 74 million piles of cult trash with him?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@oldgold: also, “War is hell”
Geminid
@debbie: William Safire wrote a very long, very good historical novel titled Freedom, set in the Civil War years 1861-1863. One of the main characters is Anna Carroll, the Maryland born political pamphleteer and ardent Unionist. In the 1850’s, Carroll had been an influential supporter of the Know Nothing Party. Safire depicts Carroll working her old political connections to influence Union policy. A book worth reading. If you have a week free.
Emma from FL
@Baud: I figured. I just wanted to interject some reality. Because, really, talk is all good but you will need planning. And Trump’s people spend their time finger-painting with their own shit, not creating master plans.
JMG
@Emma from FL: At least half of America’s cops would be more than happy to help Trump seize and maintain power.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@germy:
Its something I’ve noticed for years – the person who only complies with standards, orders or agreements in contract or family disputes so long as they’re benefitting generally comes out better. Remediating deficiencies and failures is expensive, and our current courts suck at dealing with sociopathy.
artem1s
@debbie:
You have no idea who Uncle Billy was obviously. The South and media loved to paint him as ‘crazy’ both during and after the war. In reality he was one of the most creative, intelligent and ingenious minds of the century. He understood how to bring the war to an end and went out and lead the effort himself, while the ‘honorable’, traitorous Lee sat on a hillside and watch his troops get slaughtered.
Baud
@Emma from FL:
The martial law thing made a sliver of sense when the idea was that Trump would declare it to cancel the election. Wholly implausible, but there was at least something to connect the dots. Now, it’s nothing more than a mental tic that people engage in because they can’t deal with their own insecurities about the challenges facing us.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@SW: I am with you, the Republicans are going threw the same esoteric crises the Southern Democrats had in 1860 when after decades of being coddled by elite they found out the rest of the country loathed then and could ignore them. But this isn’t 1860, being an opioid and TV addicted conspiracy believer isn’t some economic issue like slavery that will suck the the rest of population in so I see this going no were.
Elizabelle
@artem1s: Thank you.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@germy: Greenwald wants to repeat the Communist strategy in 30’s Germany of letting the Nazis win so the Nazis will purge the real enemy, the middle left?
Baud
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
True, but that’s DougJ.
Emma from FL
@JMG: So first there’s going to be a real war, as the patriot army fights with the traitors to keep control of naval bases, army forts, and other critical installations? And when the traitors pay is cancelled, and their families kicked out of base housing, who’s going to take over providing that?
Brachiator
@JMG:
So at least half would be against it.
NotMax
@Emma from FL
GoFundMe.
//
Geminid
@Elizabelle: I would like to think that internal strife will sap Republican strength, and that 2022 will be a good year for Democrats. But political analyst (and strong Democrat) Rachel Bitecofer maintains that Republicans are going to come back strong in 2022. I personally don’t think we will lose the House, but it will be a real fight.
Sloane Ranger
Tapper had De Wine on. He was touting some sort of bipartisan commission to investigate the allegations of voter fraud. Tapper asked why bother with a commission, why not just tell people that the allegations have no substance?
De Wine said because millions of Americans believe them. Tapper said they believe them because Trump and his supporters keep telling them there was fraud. Just keep telling them it’s not true.
What this says to me is that even “reasonable” Republicans are undermining Biden’s election, only more subtly. If you start an investigation into voter fraud it adds credence to the idea there is evidence of voter fraud. Otherwise why start an investigation?
WaterGirl
@Elizabelle: Thanks for explaining. Totally agree that it’s demoralizing and defeatist. I only see cowardice if you believe what he believes, but don’t fight against it to do everything in your power to make sure that doesn’t come true.
Brachiator
@Sloane Ranger:
The idea is that this would be a fast 10 day commission. And if some “evidence” of fraud was magically found, the affected states could choose new electors and override the election results.
So, more GOP bullshit.
debbie
@Sloane Ranger:
Classic DeWine, sadly. He’s not supporting fraud bullshit so much as struggling not to alienate those who would vote for him when he runs for a second term. You know, the assholes with AR-15s and such.
Baud
@Sloane Ranger:
Millions of Americans think Trump is a criminal. I support a bipartisan commission to look into that.
The Moar You Know
@Baud: ready to sign up and start reconquering America.
Spanky
@frosty: JFC, since my comment at #5 I’ve made a grocery store run, roasted 4 day’s worth of veggies, and containerized Mrs. Spanky’s main dishes and stuck them in the chest freezer (14 meals!)
Don’t tell me you’ve been sitting there doomscrolling all morning.
Emma from FL
@NotMax: I’d actually like to see that. GoFund one half to one third of the Pentagon budget.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: Anyone predicting anything right now, even Rachel Bitecofer, has to be taken with a grain of salt x1000 – because everything depends on:
Not knowing is a very uncomfortable place to be.
For some people even assuming the most negative outcome is a less uncomfortable place to be than not knowing. That’s the source of the doom porn, or at least the doom porn that isn’t intentionally put out to discourage people.
Uncertainty is very hard to deal with.
Some people go the other direction, and paint a rosy view.
Others look at what’s going on and have found a way to live with the uncertainty of what’s going to happen in the next few months.
I see all three of those approaches here.
The Moar You Know
@bemused senior: It’s a fantastic book. Not so much for the Civil War part of things, which did not take more than a couple of years of his life, although that is fascinating enough. The real paydirt is all the early California history which he lived through and was a participant in. And which takes up quite a lot of the book.
I finally broke and ordered a biography of the guy. Want to read an outsider’s take on his life.
artem1s
If that’s not a tell that DeWine is knee deep in the Householder scandal (or something worse), I don’t know what is. He’s going full metal Cult45 in the past few weeks. With Kasich involved in the LP, I’m assuming they have some inside info on the OH GOP that could hurt DeWine. But he’s pretty much a lock to get re-elected, will be term limited after that, and really has no reason to be sucking up to Dolt45 at this point in his career. I expect he’s getting threats from the anti-Householder crazytown faction of the OH GOP. But he’s always been a coward politically.
MJS
@The Moar You Know: I know who has guns, too, because I live in a city, and I hear them every single night. It’s not who you’re thinking of.
Geminid
@artem1s: Like Stonewall Jackson, William Sherman was an actual red-headed stepchild. Unlike his friend Ulysses Grant, who was a favored first born son, Sherman carried some insecurities into adulthood. This can be seen in Sherman’s memoirs. In the first chapter, Sherman describes the elements of good Generalship. One was that a good general must never deign to give notice to the lying scribbling of low down journalists and editors. Sherman then spends much of the rest of the book griping about crappy press coverage. He was an excellent general, though.
Matt McIrvin
@WaterGirl:
That’s me. If I’m going to get kicked in the head I want to see it coming. I need to game out in my mind how bad it could be.
I’ve been on the receiving end of some very mild violence in my life. That was when I was far younger and healthier than I am today. I’m not in any shape to take it now. Not sure what I’d even do. So I think about violence a lot.
Elizabelle
@The Moar You Know: Which Sherman bio did you choose?
Mary G
I’m convinced that even more than half of the WH staff know this is performative bullshit and won’t support anything illegal Twitler wants to try to do once all the scenery has been chewed on the 6th.
His team is Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, Lin Wood, and Mark Meadows. A kindergartener could beat them in court and when you subtract the media from their appearances at landscaping companies you don’t have enough people to fill all the seats at a medium sized McDonald’s.
People go to Twitler’s rallies because it’s free entertainment and a chance to be with people like themselves. Can you see Ma and Pa “Fuck Your Feelings” taking up AKs to do anything but shoot each other by mistake?
I worry about the DeVoses and Murdoch and Koch taking notes to support continuing brainwashing and norm killing in the future, but that is not now.
debbie
@Brachiator:
That’s got to be the worst idea yet. Give a legion of Eric Cartmans one inch, and they will just throw tantrums for decades.
The Moar You Know
@debbie: Even then, a very poor analogy. Trump’s destruction is rooted in personality disorders and raw hatred of those he sees as having betrayed him. Despite Sherman’s reputation of “burning a trail through the South to the sea”, he actually did no such thing.
He made a deal with every town and city he went through; don’t shoot at my men, and you can go about your business. If you DO shoot at anybody, one shot, I’m burning your fucking house down.
The staggering number of people who agreed to that deal and then welched on it, thinking that Sherman didn’t have the temperament or time to deal with them over a couple of dead Union boys, is a reflection on the utter stupidity and bad faith of those he dealt with, and not some uncontrollable urge to arson in the man himself.
Elizabelle
@WaterGirl: Wise comment.
debbie
@artem1s:
I don’t think he’s a lock at all. The RWNJ legislators have introduced bills of impeachment for “tyranny.”
artem1s
@The Moar You Know:
you might want to look at the creds of the writer. It was part of the historical revisionist’s goal to discredit Union generals like Grant and Sherman as incompetents to make their wins look accidental. I grew up 15 minutes away from his birthplace knowing almost nothing about Sherman’s life other than the media’s quotes about him being crazy and the South’s (and Gone with the Wind’s) claim he was a war criminal and terrorist. It wasn’t until I read his auto-biography that I understood what a complicated guy he was. And got a real understanding of how his whole life experience informed his decision to undertake the March to the Sea. I honestly believe no one else could have done it. And it was his willingness to personally oversee it that convinced Grant to approve it.
So I’d be careful to understand the underlying motives of any of his biographers, especially anything written by Southern sympathizers and Copperheads.
the pollyanna from hell
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: I figure 12 million in Great Britain during our revolution.
patrick II
@rikyrah:
Is it O.K. if I disagree with the Mitch is not a fascist part of that? Because he is a fascist. He’s just a more patient, less obvious, more effective in the long run, fascist
Kelly
Boosting them to low earth orbit without a heat shield would be far more economical and we could watch.
Elizabelle
@artem1s: Truth! Talk about winning the non-war, and creating the false frame through which to view it.
Too many Southern sympathizer writers with too much time on their hands.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Well, I’ve often heard the idea that the Democrats will lose seats because of an historical pattern of the party holding the presidency losing seats in midterm elections. I myself don’t believe it. But I think for some people pessimism is a defense mechanism, to avoid painful disappointment or loss of self esteem.
Bitecofer wasn’t predicting outcomes. She’ll do that later. She was just asserting from a base of knowledge that republican efforts will be strong, as we saw this past election, when they held many contested Senate seats and flipped a dozen House seats.
There obviously are many variables, like what republican turnout will be without trump heading the ticket. As you say, no one can really predict what will happen two years from now. But when did that ever stop people from trying?
Ksmiami
@Emma from FL: Proud boys wouldn’t even understand how to maintain a supply chain and would run out of water
artem1s
@Geminid:
Well, he had a point. The press loved McClellan. They wanted a charismatic, good looking guy who finished his battles earlier enough in the day to get back to DC and attend all the most fashionable balls and give them quotes about what an ignorant ape Lincoln was. The press attacked Sherman for telling the truth about how long the war was going to last and how many troops it was going to take. His predictions were pretty much spot on, BTW. Sherman was well acquainted with DC politics (his brother and step-brother were Senators) and he wanted nothing to do with running the war from behind the lines. Lincoln asked him to be Sec of War and he declined. When he did re-enlist (he was retired military when the war broke out) he asked to be put in charge of the volunteer troops. Because he knew where the war really was being fought and would be won. He was pissed about the DC press because they were wasting their time on applauding Lee in VA when the real war was being fought over supply lines and in Vicksburg and other boring outbacks they wouldn’t be caught dead in. So in that sense, the press hasn’t changed much really and he was right to bitch about them.
The Moar You Know
@artem1s: First thing I did. My family’s from the South, I have heard enough revisionism to last the rest of my life. If I wanted to listen to that brand of horseshit I’ll just call my mother,
Elizabelle
@The Moar You Know: So which Sherman bio is it??
WaterGirl
@Matt McIrvin: Serious question: does sharing your worries make it better for you somehow? Or does it spread the worry, which could have the opposite effect, and could magnify your worries.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Geminid: That’s an easy bet for Rachel to make, the President’s party normally doesn’t do well in the first midterm election even for President’s that get re-elected(Obama is a good and recent example).
WaterGirl
@Mary G: Whether it’s a successful coup, or not, some 80% of the Republican rubes believe it, and they have done considerable damage to our democracy even though it will not be successful in the sense that Biden will be president, and not Trump.
In all other ways, they have moved us 100x closer to autocracy and they will have undermined trust in elections – among the American people – for a very, very long time.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I think Bush II is a rare recent exception, because of all the 9/11/”war president” hysteria
Elizabelle
@artem1s: I would love to see a front page post about Sherman, and maybe a series about re-evaluating some other historical figures, once the hagiographers and aplogists have had their say.
Was there a particular book or two on Sherman you especially liked? Or even longform articles?
This is my year to learn more about him.
Matt McIrvin
@WaterGirl:
I think there’s a short-term effect of relief, like I have to get these feelings out. But it’s maybe not great over the long term. Sometimes I’m probably fishing for reassurance in the guise of annoyed pushback.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@artem1s: Gods, you think they were praising Lee as a general because Lee gave such fabulous parties at Arlington before the war? That would be so much like DC press.
WaterGirl
@Geminid:
People will always do that. The point I was trying to make is that even Rachel B. can’t accurately predict based on history – because we are in the middle of something like we have never seen before, so all bets are off.
No one can because this are uncharted waters.
I imagine that the polling was off because a bunch of someones made a bunch of assumptions based on things that have been somewhat (or very) predictable.
Trump and the Republicans have awoken a metric shit ton of deplorables, but they have also awoken a metric boatload of folks on our side.
All bets are off.
Elizabelle
@Matt McIrvin:
I like you a lot, Matt, but to me, you are amplifying a bunch of crap that might be better left elsewhere.
I don’t care that much what people who hold Democrats in contempt think. I really don’t. There is no reasoning with many of them, and life is short. That may be just me.
Geminid
@artem1s: Sherman’s prediction of the number of troops required to win the western theatre were distorted as a request for hundreds of thousands of troops to hold Kentucky, so that was a good example of a misleading press hurting Sherman and the nation. He certainly was right to complain. I just thought the contrast between is justified complaints and the tone of his introductory discussion of good generalship was kind of funny.
Sherman’s March to the Sea certainly was brilliant and it knocked the props out of the South’s war effort. But Grant had showed him the way in the Vicksburg campaign. Sherman’s Corp was the last of three over the Mississippi, and when Sherman met Grant he told Grant they needed to slow down and build more roads to supply the army. Grant told Sherman that the army would cut loose from its supply lines, and carry just ammunition and “small rations” (coffee and salt), otherwise living off the rich farmlands. Grant had to do this the previous winter in north Mississippi after raiders cut his supply line. Grant’s Vicksburg campaign was a brilliant success, and Sherman applied the lessons learned in his independent campaigns.
WaterGirl
@Matt McIrvin: Thanks. Something to think about, I guess.
Gravenstone
@mrmoshpotato: Trebuchet tend to be much more flexible in terms of the items they can launch. Just sayin’…
sab
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It seems to me that a lot of the 9/11 stress was actually stress from the DC sniper.
NYC, which suffered so much, pulled itself together surprisingly quickly. Politicians and the press in DC stayed stressed for years and years.
Gravenstone
Because that would mean they have to invite Democrats.
Geminid
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I did not say that Bitecofer predicted a loss of seats in 2022, just that the strength of republican efforts would not diminish, as people including myself sometimes hope.
MomSense
@Gravenstone:
Ha!!! I had a neighbor, when I used to live on a farm in the outskirts of town, who had a trebuchet. I never saw him launch anything, but he was a legend of the renaissance fairs back in the day.
Matt McIrvin
@sab: Nationwide, a lot of the post-9/11 fear was actually fear of the anthrax mailer–like the Atlanta Centennial Olympic Park bombing, that was an investigation that apparently initially pointed to the wrong guy, and with the anthrax I’m not even 100% sure they eventually got it right. But it all got lumped together with fear of al Qaeda in people’s heads.
Ken
Yeah, but it’s the human condition, and the reverse might be much worse.
Dave Duncan’s fantasy novel The Cursed has a disease that gives some people strange powers, but at terrible cost. One of the powers is a reversed memory – they have no memory of the past, but instead “premember” the future. As one of them explains, the curse is that they know that terrible things are going to happen, but can do nothing to prevent them.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Geminid: Actually, I disagree with that analysis. One of the things we noticed in the last 4 years(and change) is that Trump, and ONLY Trump really motivated some of his more casual voters out to the polls. Can the Republicans do that without Trump in 2022? They couldn’t in 2018.
West of the Rockies
@Roger Moore:
Let’s just call Trump Emperor Norton starting now.
Low Key Swagger
Who now, I wonder, is in charge of what is permissible to post here? Matt, many of us are a little bit broken. I have faced unspeakable violence in my life, and it has shaped my perspective immensely, so I feel you. I don’t always agree with your take, but it irks me when I see certain jackals declare that someone should “fuck right off” when they post something heartfelt, even if it isn’t an optimistic view of what’s ahead. So, i ask again…when did we decide that only certain perspectives were permissible? We need to be allies….the road is rough ahead even with a good amount of luck. It’s ok to feel anxious, or hell even downright terrified. I know I oscillate between those two emotions all the time. I do my level best to remain upbeat around others…but this blog used to be a place where you could speak your piece without being told you’re unwelcome. Not our best look.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: Part of what’s going on there is that I’m still doing penance for the stupid shit I thought in the post-9/11 era–that was a time when most mainstream Democratic politicians got it wrong, and gave Bush too much slack, and the apparent nuts way out on the far left got it right. So I resolved then and there to learn from my mistakes, listen to them more and not automatically dismiss them.
But, God, they can be so stupid sometimes. Why do so many leftists who saw through Bush’s lies minimize Trump’s lies? I don’t understand it.
brantl
@debbie: Just because he was a judge, doesn’t mean he was a good one, remember 49% of any profession are below average. And Louie? He makes red bricks look brilliant.
Robert Sneddon
@the pollyanna from hell:
No-one on the Revolutionary side was counting the negro field slaves, Crown Loyalists, French, Native Americans, Spanish and other humans around at the time as being on “their” side, just the white-supremacists and slaveowners taking “their” country back.
debbie
@Low Key Swagger:
It’s not realistic to think a person could say whatever they felt like with zero reaction, save agreement. These are all just opinions.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Bitecofer was not basing her predictions of outcomes on history, as in “the party holding the White House typically loses seats in mid-terms.” She was predicting a strong republican effort based upon her assessment of their operational effectiveness this election, and a belief that they will maintain it the next cycle. She was basically warning Democrats that that to compete successfully they had to up their game organizationally and in messaging. She has concrete suggestions in both these areas.
But anyone interested in assessing Bitecofer’s thinking on electoral politics can check out her twitter feed, or read her longer analytical work published by the Wason Center, the Niskanen Center, and her own website The Cycle. She now also publishes longer pieces through substack. Her article “Hate is on the Ballot” in the February 2020 New Republic is a good enough introduction to her thinking to decide whether it should be taken seriously or not.
AWOL
@Low Key Swagger: Yup. I blocked one personification of human feces on this site that’s a nasty piece of “Fuck you! fuck off!” work and The Electric Balloon Juice Experience improved vastly.
It’s name isn’t worth mentioning. Bit it’s cuter as a widdle cake.
debbie
@brantl:
No surprise that he was a bad judge, but any judge ought to know that his lawsuit would never fly. Lousy, I see, but stupid? Gah!
Ken
@West of the Rockies: Pretty good match: going bankrupt, going insane, claiming unconstitutional authority, and potentially ordering the Army to depose Congress – and definitely being ignored by said Army if he tries it.
But I can’t see Trump standing between a lynch mob and its minority targets, nor can I see Neil Gaiman writing a story in which Death Herself implies that he’s one of the tzadikim for whose sake G-d sustains the world.
Low Key Swagger
@debbie: Sure, reactions are inevitable. Is it too much to ask for people to take just a moment, consider what is being said, (and, my experience here for over 15 years tells me this group is pretty smart, overall) and determine the spirit in which is was offered? We do that IRL because if not, a bunch of us would go home with bloody noses or worse. I live in a deep red county of a deep red state. I have to live and interact and occasionally do business with 45 supporters. Rarely do I encounter the type who I cannot find enough common ground with to get the job done. I don’t necessarily treat them with respect, but neither do I openly show my disdain. But I have seen, of late, this ugly trend of being rudely dismissive of viewpoints expressed here that don’t meet a certain litmus test, for lack of a better term. We all have to work together for the rest of our lives if we want to make this country a better place for our kids. A good start is to recognize and value allies. Sorry to rant, reached my tipping point.
brantl
@Brachiator: At least half means that the remainder is 1/2 or less, don’t you think?
brantl
@Matt McIrvin: A coward dies a thousand deaths, a hero dies but once.
Geminid
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I share much of your analysis. trump was a powerful GOTV weapon for republicans this past election. And the former pattern of Democratic vote falloff in midterm elections did not occur in 2018. Nor did it Virginia’s 2017 and 2019 state elections. Republicans used to win Virginia elections because of Democtatic falloff. This probably is the reason the conservative Democrats who used to run the state separated state elections from federal. And I’ve seen the internal republican struggles that have marginalized them in statewide elections. So I believe the Democrats will pick up seats in both houses of Congress next year, but I think we will have to bring our “A game” to do this. That’s all Bitecofer is saying. And she is not just another op-ed writer or blog poster, but someone with a base of knowledge as a political scientist who looks at this stuff full time.
WaterGirl
@Low Key Swagger: I agree with you, and I hope you didn’t take my questions to Matt as telling him he is unwelcome.
We have been truly under siege for 4 years now, and lots of us are on a hair trigger. Some of it is that we’re all on edge and may overreact.
Sometimes I think it’s a defense mechanism – our own equilibrium may be shaky, so there isn’t much tolerance for anything that might throw us off our own safe spot.
There’s a great book called Crucial Conversations. The authors believe that it takes 3 things to make something a crucial conversation:
It used to be that we could argue about things on BJ, but it didn’t feel like our life and our safety and our democracy and our whole way of life was at stake, so maybe it wasn’t quite so personal?
Now? Between Trump and the Republicans who prop him up, and COVID, and the attempted coup in progress, the stakes are unbelievably high. All the time, every minute of every day. So of course emotions run high.
Most of us are worried about covid (at some level) every minute of every day. We are quick to judge, not as tolerant of opposing opinions, and between bots and trolls, we seem to be jumpy about whether someone is deliberately sowing fear and doubt and is trying to wear us down.
People have always told others to fuck off on BJ, and there have been some fierce arguments, but it did feel different than it does now.
I think things will start to shift back, with a slow start on Jan 20 and then picking up steam when vaccinations become more common and once we can begin to see how the lay of the land shakes out politically once Trump is gone. Once we can truly assess how much has been truly lost and how much we can regain.
There’s still a lot of love and support and heart on BJ, and I think some of the hair trigger “fuck off”s will go away, and will hopefully be reserved for trolls and for people who like the wrong sports team.
I’m guessing this will be a pretty long comment once i hit post. Sorry for the rambling thoughts, I am just speaking for myself, of course, and not in any official capacity on the blog.
Ruckus
@SW:
There are enough of the true believers who will make trouble, not carrying signs and marching peacefully but rioting, setting fires, assaulting people, often with hard weapons, that while they may be not strong enough to win, they are strong enough to hurt a lot of people. You can’t just turn your back to that. 73 million voted for shitforbrains to remain president. Not all of them are going to go peacefully into the night. And how do you stop them if a lot of the police are in on the concept of returning to the dark ages? This is not just politics gone a bit nutty. This is politics gone full on insane. This is the kind of shit that starts civil wars, not the kind that stages peacefully protests. Hell our civil war was about the same issues and was more civil in it’s starting than this. This is a country that attempted to put the civil war behind itself, did it badly and ended up 150+ yrs later with an even more divided population. We’ve been fighting/and attempting to put the genie back in the bottle, without taking the lid off for most of that time. And all the while there have been a not quite underground of people keeping the hate alive and building it up even more. We all talk about what people see in trump, and I ask why is it so difficult to see, IT’S RACISM. It has never gone away, and it has been being built back above it’s former level, to the current day republican party, the not-proud boys, the federalist society, the NRA, the concept that they are going to take over the world and you have to kill them, a large segment of the police, and nearly half the general population. Just because it’s taken decades to get here doesn’t mean they haven’t been building it. Hate is a human emotion, we all have it, most of us control it, nearly half of us have given into it and not in a way that protects, but in a way that breaks us down. We’ve never really had the discussion, and it shows.
debbie
@Low Key Swagger:
To be honest, it’s a reflection of the real world at this moment. I haven’t spoken to family members since they voted for Trump in 2016, so I understand where you’re coming from. But it’s awfully tough to be reasonable with unreasonable people in these unreasonable times.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
Hell he’d build a fake oval office, like the ex president in the West Wing if he thought it was
importantmeant he was president. Of course he’d gold spray paint everything so it would be shinny and GOLD!Elizabelle
@Ruckus: Good comment, Ruckus. As always.
evodevo
@Ksmiami: OR snacks…See: the Bundy revolt lol
Ruckus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I’ve understood for decades that TV news is mostly infotainment.
The using of what looks like information to entertain, rather than just plain entertainment. And look who started this and then tell me I’m wrong. It’s faux news. It’s not about news, it’s about bending opinion to match the perceptions of the person paying the actors playing news readers. It’s not actually what they say it’s what was written for them to say, who wrote it and who approved it. It’s a script for what they want history to be.
Ruckus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Does Ted not know that we know full well who brought the bottle full of gas, the rag to stuff in the top, and the matches? Is he really that fucking stupid? Or does he just try really hard to sound like it?
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
It’s not like we haven’t been swirling in a toilet bowl of uncertainty over the last 12 months. Am I going to live? Is shitforbrains going to win? Is this shit ever going to be over? It doesn’t really matter how informed, how smart, how strong you are, even how well trained you are, at some point uncertainty becomes your guiding darkness.
Captain C
@debbie: I think Trump is more like Wade Hampton, but much older, who after losing a major battle while high on ether, now has ergotine poisoning and is pulling his own Sherman’s march on the parts of the Confederacy he considers insufficiently loyal to the Cause.
sdhays
@WaterGirl: I get where you’re coming from, and I don’t pay much attention to Matt Y. anymore, but I think telling him to F- himself over this too much. The context, to me, is that Chuck Todd has been bringing Ron Johnson on MTP more than any other Senator for the past several years, letting him lie to viewers non-stop. Suddenly, after all this time, Todd notices that Ron Johnson is a lying liar who lies and he’s supposed to get a cookie?
I think we’d all be better off if the media was 95-99% what he suggests with the occasional bringing on an egregious liar for the sole purpose of puncturing their balloon. That’s not what happened here. At least Jake Tapper talks like the scales have fallen from his eyes, but we’ll see.
Ruckus
@sdhays:
I’d say that Matt’s perspective is not 100% bad, Chuck has been a vapid supporter of the conservative BS for a long time. But Chuck has obviously seen that conservatives have gone way too far. His pushing back now is probably a lot more effective than say, you or I would be, because of his years of BS give him conservative creed. Sure a lot of people who shouldn’t will dismiss him out of hand, but he is actually biting the hand that has fed him well. So Matt’s call to just put someone else on is not in any way fighting back or calling out the shit. And it has to be called out, push back from the people who have been condoning the BS is actually good, hiding from that BS is what most liberals have been doing for a long time. How well does that seem to be working? Look at this thread, people expect Chuck to endorse the BS and he’s not. That is a big and important change and Matt is saying don’t do that, just let it go, even if that is not his intention. It’s asking for misinformation, something Chuck has become famous for and which he is seeming to have stopped. Even if it’s only an impression, it’s still an impression that what Ron J is doing is just pure BS, that Chuck knows it and is telling everyone that it is. And Matt is telling Chuck to stop. A dramatic shift has happened, and in our direction and Matt thinks that’s a bad thing. I can only say one more thing, Fuck Matt.