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You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / Great Britain is locking down again

Great Britain is locking down again

by David Anderson|  January 5, 20217:35 am| 29 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, COVID-19 Coronavirus

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The BBC reports that the United Kingdom is moving to shelter in place orders effective today as cases are massively spiking:

Everyone in England must stay at home except for permitted reasons during a new coronavirus lockdown expected to last until mid-February, the PM says.

All schools and colleges will close to most pupils and switch to remote learning from Tuesday….
Scotland earlier issued a stay-at-home order and joined Wales in closing classrooms for most pupils.
BBC UK COVID19 spike

Lockdowns happen when everything else is not working. In the spring, the goal of lockdowns was to flatten the curve to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed. That mostly succeeded.

Right now, the National Health Service is at risk of being overwhelmed if case counts do not drop dramatically. Mortality skyrockets, on an age adjusted basis, when the hospitals are slammed. It seems that the goal of this British lockdown is to keep the hospitals functional while getting the most vulnerable populations vaccinated so that if there is another case surge in the spring, mortality and morbidity will be far lower.

In the United States, there are numerous regions, most notable Los Angeles County, California that are getting slammed as well. Due to the holidays, our case data is still not reliable for several more days, but the hospitalization data is climbing. Doing more of the same won’t work. It really won’t work if the B-mutation becomes the dominant variant in circulation as it seems to be significantly more infectious than the current D-mutation that is the most common variant in current circulation. The state of California is running out of oxygen and beds:

Hospitals are swamped with patients and intensive care units don’t have any more beds for COVID-19 patients. Makeshift wards are being set up in tents, arenas, classrooms and conference rooms.

Ambulances were being forced to wait in bays as long as eight hours before they could transfer patients inside hospitals — and in some cases, doctors were treating patients inside ambulances, said Cathy Chidester, director of the county’s Emergency Medical Services Agency.

Meanwhile, refrigerated trucks were on standby, ready to store the dead and mortuaries are turning away bereaved families because they’re running out of space.

We need to get to spring time. And if we have an extremely infectious variant beginning to proliferate out there, the means that we have used to get to 200,000 cases per day will be nowhere near sufficient to keep the hospitals from getting crushed.

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Reader Interactions

29Comments

  1. 1.

    citizen dave (aka mad citizen)

    January 5, 2021 at 8:56 am

    first comment

    Yes!  I don’t think I’ve ever been first.  This thread is up for close to 90 minutes and no comments.  A sure sign of virus fatigue among all of us.

    To the topic–thanks as always for the updates!  I was reading a story last night about my state’s (Indiana) slow vaccination rate/progress.  It really is alarming–like we can’t do anything anymore.  I don’t know about anyone else, but inside by brain there is a large sign blinking “What is taking so long?  People are DYING”.

  2. 2.

    David Anderson

    January 5, 2021 at 9:00 am

    @citizen dave (aka mad citizen): There was a scheduling/publication issue that messed up the time stamp and the actual publication.

  3. 3.

    wvng

    January 5, 2021 at 9:08 am

    At least experts are saying that the approved vaccines seem to work against the UK variant. So ramping up vaccinations dramatically is another tool. Laurie Garrett yesterday said that current vaccines may NOT be effective against the South Africa variant because the surface ACE proteins are significantly different in shape – which is really bad news. I imagine that all the vaccine developers are working on a vaccine against that one, and probably by spring vaccines will be like the flu vaccines, with protection against several varieties. We are not near to this being over, which is hugely disappointing.

  4. 4.

    J.

    January 5, 2021 at 9:17 am

    @David Anderson:  What are the chances Biden calls for a lockdown? More pertinent, what are the chances Republican-led states will comply?

  5. 5.

    MomSense

    January 5, 2021 at 9:18 am

    We desperately need a stay at home/lockdown in the US. Nothing else is going to slow this down at this point.

  6. 6.

    David Anderson

    January 5, 2021 at 9:20 am

    @J.: The second part of the question is the most important — what is the likelihood of compliance — I think it is low.

  7. 7.

    Frank Wilhoit

    January 5, 2021 at 9:22 am

    This is the prime example of how addiction overrides the instinct for self-preservation. In this case the addiction is to an ideology. It explains many things besides the mishandling — really non-handling — of the pandemic.

  8. 8.

    MomSense

    January 5, 2021 at 9:22 am

    @wvng:

    I cried when I saw that yesterday.

  9. 9.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    January 5, 2021 at 9:27 am

    Speaking of to dumb to live threw a pandemic; my nephew texted us that his housemate went to his family in Sacramento, came back and complained he has no sense of taste or smell. Going back and forth between San Diego and Sacramento threw two of the major hot spots in the state, who could have foreseen this kid gets Covid?  My nephew is quite aware of the risks himself and takes the appropriate precautions, but it just takes one idiot in your life…

    Kind of a gobsmacker because what if my nephew gets seriously ill and needs help? Both my sister and husband are at high risk. On the other hand he is twenty something with no prior conditions.

  10. 10.

    RAM

    January 5, 2021 at 9:27 am

    The media likes posting the number of cases because it’s a big number, and there’s nothing like big numbers to make great headlines. But if I was still involved in the media, I’d be stressing the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths. States, particularly in the old Confederacy, have been manipulating case numbers. It’s a LOT harder to manipulate numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, and those numbers give a much better picture of how serious Covid-19 is hitting areas of the country.

  11. 11.

    Matt McIrvin

    January 5, 2021 at 9:35 am

    I was thinking about planning travel in 2022. Now I’m wondering if my daughter will be able to have a normal college experience in 2024-25.

  12. 12.

    Amir Khalid

    January 5, 2021 at 9:37 am

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    I too worry for your nephew. The young and healthy can still suffer a serious, even life-threatening, illness with Covid-19. And unfortunately it does indeed only take one idiot in your circle to get you exposed.

  13. 13.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    January 5, 2021 at 9:37 am

    @Frank Wilhoit: In this case the addiction is to an ideology.

    I would suspect an actual drug addiction is involved too. I am struck by how many of these Virus Deniers talk like the LSD users I knew. Heavy Drug users tend to be paranoid, like the guy who blew himself up in Nashville.

  14. 14.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    January 5, 2021 at 9:41 am

    @Amir Khalid: Thanks about the Nephew, he’s built like a bull, but Covid is the Devil’s lottery.

    The way I see it is ironically the problem is if someone gets seriously ill and survives. If they die, well that is the end of it, but being crippled for months means they will need a lot of help and it’s clear his housemate is totally useless.

  15. 15.

    Another Scott

    January 5, 2021 at 9:48 am

    Nobody could have predicted…

    NEW: The LA County EMS has directed ambulance crews not to transport patients with little chance of survival to hospitals, and to conserve the use of oxygen. Per ⁦@alexandrameeks⁩ pic.twitter.com/9Hnlnc7JaP

    — Pervaiz Shallwani (@Pervaizistan) January 5, 2021

    :-(

    (this-is-fine.gif)

    (via HelenBranswell)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  16. 16.

    Amir Khalid

    January 5, 2021 at 9:58 am

    @Another Scott:

    Who is to be making these life-and-death decisions? EMTs are not doctors, and it doesn’t seem right to expect them to decide such things.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    January 5, 2021 at 10:08 am

    @Amir Khalid: The Twitter thread has more info, and an image of the memo.  (It seems more nuanced than the tweet summary, but they are indeed trying to conserve oxygen and changing some of the transport policies.)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    chopper

    January 5, 2021 at 10:10 am

    apparently there’s another new variant coming out of south africa which is, according to preliminary data, even worse than the UK one as to transmissibility.

    this is what happens when you throw up your hands and give up and let a virus run wild. it has more chances to mutate.

  19. 19.

    HeleninEire

    January 5, 2021 at 10:15 am

    Ireland is totally locked down too. Just last week I made reservations for a September visit thinking surely, even though I am close to last on the vaccine list, all will be well by then.

    Now I’m not so sure. ?

  20. 20.

    p.a.

    January 5, 2021 at 10:17 am

    And the Fed gvt is DOA until 1/20, unless  CDC, NIH are able to accomplish a lot while the shitstain rage-tweets.  And then Joe gets to deal w the secessionist states and the sappers tRump & Leo have seeded the fed gvt with.

  21. 21.

    Redshift

    January 5, 2021 at 10:19 am

    @RAM:

    It’s a LOT harder to manipulate numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, and those numbers give a much better picture of how serious Covid-19 is hitting areas of the country. 

    Not for lack of trying, though. Wingnuts are still pushing hard on the idea that if someone had any other condition, they didn’t really die of covid. Because unexplained spikes in deaths from diabetes, heart attacks, and strokes are nothing to worry about…

  22. 22.

    wenchacha

    January 5, 2021 at 11:26 am

    @HeleninEire: I go back and forth from hope to despair. My first, and likely only grandchild was born in October, in California. I live in western NY. I’ll be 63 this month, far down on the vaccine list. I cannot express how desperate I am to meet this little boy. My husband turns 65 in June.

    I know this isn’t anybody’s emergency but mine, but if I think about it much, I really want to scream and smash things.

  23. 23.

    Kelly

    January 5, 2021 at 11:31 am

    At the Post Office yesterday there was unmasked guy. Skinny little gray bearded hick. First time in several months I’ve run across anyone completely ignoring the rule. I didn’t say anything. By now the unmasked have been distilled to the completely unreachable and I haven’t been in a fight since I was 14. This is a very Trumpy rural area. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the high rate of compliance. I quit shopping a local hardware store and a local building supply that were scornful of the mask rule back in summer. Don’t plan to go back to find out if they’ve come around.

  24. 24.

    Cermet

    January 5, 2021 at 11:33 am

    So now an even more contagious virus is starting just in time for Biden and the thugs to scream about the virus and what Biden isn’t doing to stem the death toll.

  25. 25.

    Brachiator

    January 5, 2021 at 11:37 am

    The UK and other nations’ charts are still informative, but less scary, if you chart the last 30 or 60 days, instead of looking at data from zero day to present. It puts things in better proportion.

    We need to get to spring time. And if we have an extremely infectious variant beginning to proliferate out there, the means that we have used to get to 200,000 cases per day will be nowhere near sufficient to keep the hospitals from getting crushed.

    What drives me crazy is that the people who are defiant and oppose masks, social distancing, etc, are simply not changing their behaviors, especially in Europe and the US. And some of these people don’t seem to care that the vaccines are coming.

    They are stuck in “nobody can tell me what to do mode.”

    I have even noticed some restaurants near me here in Los Angeles county happily violating the outdoor dining ban.  Their set-ups also don’t seem to adhere to health department recommendations. And the diners sitting there don’t care. Life is good. Unless you are one of the unlucky people in a hospital or in an ICU.

    It is also telling, and infuriating, that the people trying to recall California Governor Newsom avoid talking about hospitalizations at all, and instead focus singly on how he has supposedly hurt the economy and scolded people for wanting to eat, drink and be merry.

    But if I was still involved in the media, I’d be stressing the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths.

    I would also post the age demographic for hospitalizations, where the data is available. While it is true that deaths from Covid-19 skew toward the elderly, the age of people hospitalized is younger.  Even if more younger people survive, the impact of the illness can still be staggering.

    But too many idiots think that the only people affected by the pandemic are Hispanics and people over 80.

  26. 26.

    Kelly

    January 5, 2021 at 11:51 am

    @Brachiator:It is also telling, and infuriating, that the people trying to recall California Governor Newsom avoid talking about hospitalizations at all, and instead focus singly on how he has supposedly hurt the economy and scolded people for wanting to eat, drink and be merry.

    Similar behavior in Oregon. The hardware store I’ve abandoned is the local hub for the recall Oregon guv Kate Brown.

  27. 27.

    wenchacha

    January 5, 2021 at 11:57 am

    @Brachiator: How can people not see that their precious economy can’t survive if everyone is ill, or caring for the ill?

  28. 28.

    GoBlueInOak

    January 5, 2021 at 12:49 pm

    @Brachiator:  They might start complying if LAPD started throwing people in jail. Might that be illegal? Who knows, who cares. Didn’t seem to matter to Bloomberg when he kettled up every single person walking down the street within spitting distance of the GOP convention and temporarily disappeared masses of people to cages on the waterfront. Folks sued, but the City dragged out those suits as long as possible. In the end, Bloomberg got what he wanted.

    Break some legs and deal with the lawsuits later. This is a heckuva a lot more important than some stupid convention, yet too many in charge seem oblivious of the extent of their actual power.

  29. 29.

    Sm*t Cl*de

    January 5, 2021 at 2:47 pm

    Lockdowns happen when everything else is not working.

    Lockdown happened in NZ long before that stage, which is why NZ is COVID-free.

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