Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

“But what about the lurkers?”

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

This blog will pay for itself.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

You are here: Home / Politics / Trumpery / Dolt 45 / Chain of Command

Chain of Command

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Nancy Pelosi says that she “spoke to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley to discuss available precautions for preventing an unstable president from initiating military hostilities or accessing the launch codes and ordering a nuclear strike.”

I can tell her the available precautions, and I hope Milley did too: NONE

The President has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons. He is not required to consult anyone else, nor is there provision to force him to.

This situation came about because back in the Cold War, it seemed plausible that the President might not know about a nuclear attack until the missiles were on the way. That gave him a half-hour or less to decide. It was also assumed that we would elect only presidents capable of doing the job.

Nuclear strategists have pressed Congress to change the situation, but so far Representative Ted Lieu’s and Senator Ed Markey’s bill has gone nowhere. Maybe the next Congress will see fit to consider it.

No, there wasn’t a workaround when Nixon was wandering the corridors of the White House, drunk, talking to the portraits. We were lucky.

Nancy Pelosi can’t do a workaround with Mark Milley. That would be tantamount to a military coup, and I think that Milley is not interested in a military coup right now.

If this is a concern, Speaker Pelosi, and I think it is, then bring articles of impeachment to the floor of the House. NOW.

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner

Reader Interactions

232Comments

  2. 2.

    Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix

    Good for her, but as you point out, she has no power with the DoD.  So, agreed, impeach.

    I get that they’re trying to increase pressure on Republicans, but come on.  Act.  Stop overcomplicating it.  Every MoC is a witness to what happened, res ipsa loquitur.

    Craven Mike Pence is not gonna do shit.  Get over it.

  4. 4.

    West of the Rockies

    Cheryl, impeachment is no swift and certain fix (as I’m sure you know).  I hope he IS impeached, but I have no faith McConnell and co. will cooperate.

  5. 5.

    satby

    Oh,  bet Pelosi is very clear on the law. I also bet that conversation was less “what can we do?” and much more “make it very clear  down the chain that following unlawful orders will be dealt with severely while we organize the impeachment “.

  6. 6.

    Wapiti

    I can tell her the available precautions, and I hope Milley did too: NONE

    And she doesn’t need to share that, since the Traitor will get word.

  7. 7.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    If this is a concern, Speaker Pelosi, and I think it is, then bring articles of impeachment to the floor of the House. NOW.

    might could be she’s sending up a flare to the ditherers

    Rep. Nadler @RepJerryNadler
    I am once again urging that President Trump be impeached and removed from office. We have a limited period of time in which to act. The nation cannot afford a drawn out process and I support bringing articles of impeachment directly to the House floor.

  8. 8.

    Ken

    so far Representative Ted Lieu’s and Senator Ed Markey’s bill has gone nowhere. Maybe the next Congress will see fit to consider it.

    I sense that I’m going to be mightily irritated by the number of barn doors being locked now that there’s a Democratic president. I’ll also predict that the new laws will be ignored if we get another Trump, based on the wreckage of the emoluments clause.

  10. 10.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    I’m figuring that she was aware of that from the start (as Milley undoubtedly reiterated), but that this was a warning to the ultimate transmitters of the orders that there would be a question as to the lawfulness of such an order, and giving them an “out” in the event that something stupid popped out from NCA.

  11. 11.

    TaMara (HFG)

    I’m sure Pelosi knows this and this is about creating an urgency to the impeachment proceedings and also throwing Pence under the bus. As in, “Hey Pence, the man you’re too afraid of to invoke the 25th amendment, is batshit crazy and if he starts WW3, it’s all on you, man. All on you.”

    I trust Nancy to know what’s she doing here…

  12. 12.

    Spanky

    @West of the Rockies: 
    Senate is out for 12 days. Good luck getting Mitch to bring them back.

    I suspect we would have to rely on the military refusing his orders. More likely if it’s obviously illegal or a crime against humanity.

  13. 13.

    The Thin Black Duke

    Is there truth to the rumors that one of goons arrested at the Capitol needed a Russian translator?

  14. 14.

    JanieM

    Inaction on this is terrifying, but because of who Clickbait is, so is action. He has consistently misunderstood the fact that the presidency doesn’t make him an omnipotent god-emperor, and yet here we have the most terrifying of powers invested him in exactly that way. No constraint, no accountability. Surely that’s like a red flag to a bull in tempting him to use it. Add to that his pathological knee-jerk tendency to go all “You’re not the boss of me” on anyone who imagines that they can restrain him in any way, and this is almost too scary to contemplate.

  16. 16.

    Terraformer

    I’m tired of excuses, “let’s give Pence a chance to do the right thing” or similar.

    FFS, this is existential. Why wait until ‘as soon as the middle of next week?’  Start NOW. Work through the WEEKEND. I mean, nuclear codes.

    What could be more important and time-sensitive than a clearly deranged sociopath having nuclear codes? You don’t slow walk this.

  18. 18.

    Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix

    @JanieM:

    Surely that’s like a red flag to a bull in tempting him to use it. Add to that his pathological knee-jerk tendency to go all “You’re not the boss of me” on anyone who imagines that they can restrain him in any way, and this is almost too scary to contemplate.

    Yeah, one of my thoughts here was don’t give him any ideas, Nancy.

    I guess we are all learning what it is to be abused by a narcissist.

  20. 20.

    Ken

    @Wapiti: At the end of all this, once we’re into Biden’s second or third month, I want every Cabinet member under oath, explaining what they did.

    There’s certainly ample precedent that, when an angry mob storms a US facility and causes the death of four (or more) US citizens, former cabinet secretaries can be called before Congress for questioning. Repeatedly.

  21. 21.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @The Thin Black Duke:

    Browder @Billbrowder 3h
    Of course one of the members of the mob storming the Capitol building needed a Russian-English translator.

    One person arrested was charged with possessing a “military style automatic weapon” and 11 molotov cocktails, prosecutors said. Another defendant was charged with assaulting a police officer with a hockey stick. Yet another, who needed a Russian interpreter, told a judge, “I don’t know what unlawful entry you are referring to.”

  22. 22.

    Emma from FL

    I would hope that someone in the chain would have half the balls Stanislav Petrov had in 1983.

  24. 24.

    Served

    The nation was attacked and is under attack, the man who motivated the attack is the current president, and Congress is also on a ticking clock due to COVID exposure while hiding in place during the attack.

  25. 25.

    NotMax

    Seem to recall there was an informal (and temporary, IIRC) roadblock procedure hurriedly put in place re: Nixon about having any such orders confirmed and countersigned (by DefSec?) before being passed on.

  26. 26.

    Spanky

    @Cheryl Rofer: This is the kind of story that doesn’t hit the news unless the principals want it to. It was placed strategically, but it’s beyond my pay grade to understand why. Definitely a message to someone, though, and I don’t think that’s Trump.

  28. 28.

    Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix

    @Served:

    Congress is also on a ticking clock due to COVID exposure while hiding in place during the attack.

    Most of them have had their first vaccination, which provides limited protection.

  31. 31.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @West of the Rockies:

    Lindsey Graham @LindseyGrahamSC · 2h
    Speaker Pelosi is hanging by a political thread, and Senator Schumer lives in fear of a primary from the radical left.
    It is up to President-elect Biden to step in and allow the nation to heal.

  33. 33.

    gene108

    @Terraformer: 

    I wonder why they cannot do it sooner than the middle of next week, but I’m not sure Pelosi has enough votes from her caucus.

    We have too many members in unsafe seats.

  34. 34.

    Emma from FL

    You know I’m beginning to think we Democrats deserve all the kicking around we get. After everything she has done and accomplished you can’t wait to screech at Pelosi because she’s not following your instructions. Siding with Lindsay Graham’s blather.

    We don’t learn, do we?

  37. 37.

    gene108

    @The Thin Black Duke:

    Is there truth to the rumors that one of goons arrested at the Capitol needed a Russian translator?

    From what I read, she’s a middle aged Russian woman, whose daughter served as the interpreter

  40. 40.

    Anonymous At Work

    @TaMara (HFG): Yup, Pelosi is trying to get Milley to respond with documentation that “Should Trump determine such, he can launch nukes anywhere at anytime at any target, foreign or domestic, so long as he is President.”

    The only real defense on the military side is “I understand sir, but I will require that order be submitted in writing.”  Or that used to be the training for dealing with potentially illegal orders…

  41. 41.

    Another Scott

    Tom Z. Collina at TheBulletin (from October):

    President John Kennedy took powerful pain medications. President Richard Nixon was a heavy drinker. President Ronald Reagan had dementia. And now President Donald Trump has the coronavirus. These conditions can significantly impair one’s ability to think clearly. And yet, as president, each had—or, in Trump’s case, still has–the unilateral authority to launch US nuclear weapons within minutes.

    […]

    Yet by facilitating a quick launch, we are making it more likely that the president will blunder into Armageddon. In a crisis, we should be seeking to give the president more decision time, not less. Maintaining an effective deterrent does not require us to rush into a nuclear war. We have hundreds of nuclear weapons deployed on submarines at sea that would survive any attack.

    So rather than argue about who should have the football, let’s make the process safer and more democratic. The Constitution gives the power to declare war to Congress, not the president. Thus, a presidential decision to initiate the use of nuclear weapons—the ultimate war declaration—would be unconstitutional. The next president can rectify this situation by declaring that he would share the authority to start nuclear war with Congress. He could also state that the sole purpose of US nuclear weapons is to deter their use by others. Vice President Joe Biden has declared his support for such a “sole purpose” policy, which is essentially the same as a commitment to not use nuclear weapons first.

    It is time to retire the nuclear football. The only thing standing between us and nuclear holocaust is one man with COVID on heavy meds. That is the plan? Ending sole authority is better than entrusting it to any individual. In a vibrant democracy, no one person should have the unchecked power to destroy the world.

    +1

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  43. 43.

    david

    Cole, come get your fucking man…

    Jeff Stein@JStein_WaPo

    BREAKING: Sen. Joe Manchin (http://D-W.Va.) says “absolutely not” to a round of $2,000 stimulus checks

    Biden promised to approve $2K checks if Georgia Dems won their Senate races. Pelosi and Schumer also on board

  49. 49.

    Mike in NC

    Just returned from a trip to the town dump to recycle empty cans and bottles. There was a graybeard there next to me with the doors and hatch of his car wide open, blasting out some deranged talk radio shit.

    I couldn’t tell if it was Limbaugh (if he’s still on the air) or one of his lesser clones, buy they are still talking about Trump like he’s the Second Coming of Christ. Vietnam vet plates on the car. There are 70+ million of these loons and they are never going away. Fight them every day or there’ll be another takeover of the Capitol.

  50. 50.

    SFAW

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    He’s trying to become Biden’s little buddy again. Treating Biden like a Daddy.

    Biden’s not that type of person, but I would hope he would kick Lindsey to the curb.

    Literally.

  53. 53.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @david: /sigh/

    that actually surprises me. I thought in the grand tradition of Bobby Byrd he wouldn’t miss a chance to send money back to West By God Virginia

  54. 54.

    Dave

    I will only say that if such an order was given under current circumstances that the only acceptable answer is to disobey; we can deal with the fallout from that as opposed to the very real fallout and possible end of civilization fallout from obeying such an order. We absolutely need to reexamine the authority and laws currently in place but if ever there is a “if you are going to take it upon yourself to break the law/violate policy you better be right moment” it’s an unprovoked nuclear launch order given by a compromised POTUS.

  55. 55.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    @david: I wouldn’t worry about it. With the newly expanded powers of the Vice Presidency, Kamala Harris can just authorize checks to be sent.

  56. 56.

    Served

    @david: I’m trying to conceive of the number of legislative bribes that are going to have to be offered to the state of West Virginia over the next two years.

  57. 57.

    germy

    @Mike in NC:

    My wife went to the grocery store this morning and overheard some of the employees complaining “They’re blaming all of this on Trump!”

  59. 59.

    Fair Economist

    @Terraformer:

    What could be more important and time-sensitive than a clearly deranged sociopath having nuclear codes? You don’t slow walk this.

    Her majority is currently five. What happens if she brings it to the floor and six Democrats vote no? Pelosi can count votes, and there’s a reason they’re not currently voting.

  60. 60.

    The Moar You Know

    Broken record here:  anyone know if our nuclear arsenal can be aimed at targets inside the United States?

    Not an academic question anymore.

  62. 62.

    Ken

    @SFAW: It could be more effective if Biden said “I thank Senator Graham for his support of me over the actual sitting President, Donald Trump.”

    Well, maybe “effective” isn’t the right word; does English have a simple verb for “painting a target on someone’s back”?

  66. 66.

    BaffleGab

    Headline “Trump Aides Rush to Keep Him From Sparking Another Conflict” somehow brings to mind Group Captain Mandrake in Dr. Strangelove trying to placate General Ripper and have him recall the B-52s…

  67. 67.

    Kelly

    @david: My Blue Dog Rep Kurt Schrader was one of two House Dems that voted against $2,000 checks last time. He’ll vote against them again. Rep Schrader is worth about $7 million in inherited money.

  70. 70.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    @BaffleGab: What do his aides do exactly to stop Trump from doing something stupid? Do they spin him round and round in his office chair while he dizzily giggles?

  71. 71.

    Jinchi

    NEW: Joe Biden is supportive of the move to impeach President Trump, Cedric Richmond has told members of Congress, according to sources with knowledge of those conversations. Story TK.

  72. 72.

    Betty Cracker

  73. 73.

    waratah

    I have been switching between MSNBC and CNN last night and today. I am seeing ex Republican senators,congressmen, and those that worked in the White House that I have not seen for years. They are all crying, wanting someone to fix this. They have not spoke up until now that I know of. I have this feeling they want to blame the Democrats. They don’t want the 25th amendment used or impeachment but just fix this.

  75. 75.

    Emerald

    Yeah, I was pretty sure that the president has sole authority to launch nukes. Yet Sen. Bob Corker was on MSNBC about an hour ago saying that, nah, there’s plenty of padding between the prez and nukes, and nobody needs to be afraid that he’ll launch nukes.

    Prediction: Tehran. They ought to start evacuating now. Would tRump start a nuclear war? Oh, absolutely.

    My only hope is that they DID keep the nuclear codes away from Nixon in his final days, so maybe Corker knows something (he did say he hoped tRump would leave and never come back, so apparently he’s out of the cult)? Also, that when he gives any kind of order in the next 12 days—his minions will not implement it.

  76. 76.

    BaffleGab

    If you want an interesting history of the decision and ramifications of giving the President the sole authority to launch a nuclear first strike, take a listen to Dan Carlin’s “Destroyer of Worlds”.

  79. 79.

    Betty Cracker

    @david: Weren’t at least a couple of Reps on board with $2K checks? They may change their tune when Trump was out, but I think Hawley and Rubio were loudly in favor.

  80. 80.

    wvng

    I don’t understand how impeachment is supposed to remove Trump. I am all for the House impeaching him again, but removal requires the Senate to convict. I don’t see that happening, even now.  So all that would be accomplished is a second impeachment (good) and getting everyone on the record with their vote (also good). But not removal.

  84. 84.

    germy

    @Emerald:  Prediction: Tehran. They ought to start evacuating now. Would tRump start a nuclear war? Oh, absolutely.

    Iran and Russia are strategic allies.  I’m not sure if Trump would cross Putin like that.

  85. 85.

    Fair Economist

    @Just Some Fuckhead: Fine, then six votes but same principle. Pelosi can afford to lose almost nobody, and the fact that it’s not up yet shows she is indeed likely short votes.

  86. 86.

    egorelick

    I have been (unfortunately) in the situation to know several people “voluntarily” committed to mental institutions.  When you are on a voluntary commitment, you can walk out any time you like.; you can refuse treatment; you retain all your legal rights. BUT, if you try to exercise them in a way the staff feels is dangerous, then the pen comes out for the 5150 (involuntary commitment). Sometimes it is just a threat and sometimes it is real. Theoretically, that should not prevent a patient from leaving but when they approach the locked door, someone has to find a key or something has to be checked with the doctor or it will be a few minutes before we can get your stuff ready.

    In my opinion, this is Trump right now with respect to the 25th. Nobody wants to say it so we are all in some kind of USSR mode of reading tea leaves or Pravda, but I am 80% sure.

  88. 88.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    @wvng: I can imagine 17 Republicans voting to remove Trump at this point – including McConnell. He tried to kill them Wednesday and he’s delivered the presidency and the Senate to Democrats. Hell, even former AG Barr said Trump betrayed America.

  89. 89.

    Another Scott

    Electors sign 6 copies of their certificates, which are dispatched to and stored in 4 different places. There are copies in the custody of federal judges in each state capital, copies with the secretaries of state in each state, and copies with the National Archives.

    — David Waldman-1, of Yorktown LLC™ (@KagroX) January 8, 2021

    Even if they had found the certificates, the invaders still would have lost.

    (via LOLGOP)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  91. 91.

    oldster

    I don’t like the plain text of Nancy’s order here, as it falls into the category of “soft 25th Amendment solutions,”  i.e. informal attempts to deprive the President of Article 2 powers. That’s not good enough, and it’s not good at all: an action cannot be just a little bit unconstitutional. If he’s president, then he has all of the powers; if he should not have those powers, then 25A is the only way to deprive him of them (that or impeachment).

    So, I hope that Nancy is floating it not for the value of its plain text, but (as others have speculated above) as a way to light a fire under some people: force Pence to do the right thing, or show the world the consequences of his cowardice.

    Inertia and the return to normality are powerful factors in public life, or good and for ill. We saw the good side when, only hours after an insurrection in our legislature, Nancy gaveled them back into session to do the people’s business, as though nothing had happened. Watching all night long as she and Pence led the Congress to certify the electoral votes was as stirring for me as if I had witnessed the shelling of Fort McHenry: by the dawn’s early light, I saw that our flag was still there, and so was our democratic government.

    But inertia and return to normality can also cause the loss of opportunities. There will be no general willingness to impeach Trump on the day before the inauguration, and very little two days before or three days before. The urgency is slipping away as Nancy delays. I assume she has her reasons, but by damned I wish she would move faster. Call them into session to day, and vote out the articles.

  92. 92.

    germy

    @trollhattan:

    Oh definitely.  I don’t buy any of the stuff prepared in that store’s deli or bakery.  Only packaged items with brand (and sometimes off-brand) names.

  94. 94.

    MobiusKlein

    As the power to declare war rests with Congress, Nancy Pelosi can remind folks that Congress has not declared war.   So carrying out orders that are effectively starting a war are illegal.

  97. 97.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Oh, I understand the doctrine that is is a political act as opposed to a military act, but looking back at Nuremburg, I’d be able to make a case that orders for first use without a significant casus belli exposes everyone in the chain to war crimes charges under international law.

  99. 99.

    Leto

    @wvng: you raise a good point, but here’s the crux: if the Republicans want to rid themselves of him, both immediately and for 2022/2024, they should convict and implement the “cannot run for Federal Ofiice again” portion. This is their best bet to “move on” from this. Personally I doubt they’ll do it as they’re too chicken shit/craven. This party hasn’t had a spine since those Senators marched to the WH and told Nixon to vacate. And even then, a good portion of the Republican Party was still on board with Nixon. But my two cents here.

  101. 101.

    NotMax

    @Cheryl Rofer

    On the other hand, not exactly the sort of thing one commits to writing. And in the best interests of those involved and of the national security apparatus to keep mum about any agreement (never was under the impression of it being an order, thus my describing it as informal).

  104. 104.

    IsraelTopshelf

    Surely “sole authority” does not imply that he could launch all by himself. There has to be a very significant set of others involved in carrying out the act, who in the process could/would decide that this nut job is acting illegally, and refuse. Otherwise the ability to self-launch is just insane.

  106. 106.

    Immanentize

    @Fair Economist: I mentioned this yesterday — I agree with you, but —

    I think the whole 25th A toss down to Pence was the price for some of the votes for the caucus.  Give Pence time to do the right thing, if he doesn’t, we will back a second set of impeachment articles.

  107. 107.

    PPCLI

    @waratah: Did any of them support impeachment and conviction the first time around? Because it was 100% predictable at that time (and long before) that we’d now be in this position if Trump lost.

  109. 109.

    Immanentize

    @MobiusKlein: Not true.  Never was, is not now.

    Once Congress creates and funds the military and the weapons systems it uses, which it just did again, the President can order anything to be done with those funded things he likes.  Period.

  111. 111.

    mali muso

    Re: impeachment, i do hope that everyone has contacted their Reps and Senators to urge them to support it.  My Rep was on record within the first group supporting it immediately following the coup, but I’ve still contacted her office to indicate that this constituent has definitely got her back.

  112. 112.

    West of the Rockies

    I think that the easiest and most unlikely solution would be to get Trump to resign.  McConnell could be involved if he is willing to fib (and we know he is) by telling Trump the Senate is on board with impeachment.  They could dangle a Pence pardon to get Trump to go.  They could tell him it’s the best way to assure Ivanka and co. have an offramp to redemption (another lie, but maybe an effective one).

    Trump, I think, would be resistant because of his ego, but if you dangle a golden legal escape parachute, maybe he’d bite.

  113. 113.

    Another Scott

    @MobiusKlein: +1

    Even the President’s control of the nuclear launch codes is not absolute.  It must be a legal order.  That trumps (heh) whatever the President says to do.  Starting catastrophic military action with no approval from Congress would obviously be illegal.  And disobeying such an order would be the right thing to do (and worth risking prosecution for).

    Pelosi’s conversation was fine and appropriate, it seems to me.

    But, as TheBulletin article above argues, we should get rid of the football.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  114. 114.

    Ken

    @Emerald: Also, that when he gives any kind of order in the next 12 days—his minions will not implement it.

    I imagine they’ve learned by now that if they distract him for five minutes – “Look, Mr. President, your picture is on TV again!” – he’ll forget what he was doing.

    Come to think of it, I’m pretty sure I’ve seen reports of that strategy being used a couple of times over the past few years. I may have seen it in one of those “when his aides stop treating him like a toddler” posts.

  116. 116.

    Mike in NC

    Representative Castro is saying he’ll introduce legislation that will prohibit the US government from ever naming anything for Donald Trump. I night make allowance for a Navy garbage scow.

  119. 119.

    jlowe

    While the laws don’t particularly help here, how do you hold accountable the Republican members of Congress, who wouldn’t impeach, and, more recently, signed on to contest the results of the Electoral College? They are culpable in the five and counting deaths from Wednesday’s debacle at the Capitol, and have put all of us at risk over the next few weeks of being converted in superheated pink mist. My Congressional Representative was one of those, though she fled immediately before the Electoral College certification. Too much of a naked careerist even to stick to her principles as a seditionist, though I predict she will be reelected in 2022. How craven. How typically Republican.

  121. 121.

    germy

    News — One of President Trump's closest confidants and top aides, Hope Hicks, is discussing resigning before he leaves office, according to two people. She has told people if she does, she would likely leave within the next 48 hours. It's not clear she has made a decision.— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) January 8, 2021

    That’s gotta hurt. Who will press his pants?

  123. 123.

    lowtechcyclist

    Yesterday:

    Taumaturgo and Lowtech are officially on the “I don’t care what Biden/Pelosi/Schumer have to say” train, which should remove them from actual consideration of their opinions.

    My response:

    Oh dear me I’m sorry for caring about what they DO. By all means that should disqualify my opinions.

    I stand by my sarcasm.

    Yes, if Nancy’s worried about Trump being able to start a nuclear war, she should have already called the House back in session in order to impeach him, so that the Senate at least has the option of removing him.  But instead, right now, they’re presumably all back in their districts, unless a secret Bat-Signal’s been sent to them all calling them back to D.C.

    Once again, I don’t give a goddamn what people SAY, if there’s stuff that they should be DOING, and all they’re doing is talking.

  125. 125.

    Another Scott

    @Immanentize: No time to look, but I believe that is far too strong.  E.g. he cannot transfer weapons to states on certain lists (without going through the process of getting waivers); etc.

    Remember Iran/Contra.

    IIRC, the War Powers resolution requires certain actions if he wants to start hostilities, and reporting by certain deadlines.  I don’t know the details.

    tl;dr – as long as the Congress has the power of the purse, they ultimately control what can be done with the military.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  126. 126.

    Ken

    @Cheryl Rofer: I’m going to make lunch. Don’t blow anything up while I’m in the kitchen.

    You remind me that on Wednesday I read about the objection to Arizona’s ballots, so thought that would be a good time to take my daily walk, and got back as the Capitol was falling into the hands of the rebels.  Treat it as one data point for the wisdom of leaving Balloon Juice unsupervised.

  130. 130.

    Jinchi

    @TaMara (HFG): I’m sure Pelosi knows this and this is about creating an urgency to the impeachment proceedings

    Yes. All these actions are raising the alarms for people further down the chain who might overhear Trump musing about about his next act of treason. It’s not that Congress can immediately deter him, but other people on the ground might be able to.

  131. 131.

    Ken

    @Another Scott: E.g. he cannot transfer weapons to states on certain lists (without going through the process of getting waivers); etc.

    Didn’t Trump ignore exactly such a restriction?  Selling weapons to Saudi Arabia, I think?

  132. 132.

    West of the Rockies

    Asa Hutchinson is an oily, grinning asshole.  He’s blathering on over on MTP.

  133. 133.

    Immanentize

    @Another Scott: There will almost always be people who believe that if the President orders it, it must be legal.  Nixon only had to fire a couple of guys to find someone who would order the Saturday Night Massacre.

    Reliance on hand picked Trump supporters in the military to refuse a direct order from the CiC as “illegal” and worth risking their careers or prosecution for is not a bet I want to take.  As the last four years have shown us.

  136. 136.

    MisterForkbeard

    @lowtechcyclist: That was me that made that statement. And you’re STILL a giant idiot, because large parts of politics is about talking.

    They’re saying what they intend to do. You can reserve judgement until they’ve done it, but you’re pre-emptively jumping on the “why haven’t they done this thing that’s really haaaard to dooooooo? Why are they feckless traitors!” train, and you’re just a tiresome fuck when you do it. Which is too bad, because otherwise I think you can be pretty insightful.

    In short, stop being a sabotaging idiot. Apply pressure, not useless wailing and backstabbing. And then maybe people will stop giving you the side eye.

  138. 138.

    satby

    @Emma from FL: yeah, so confusing! Depending on the day Pelosi is a master strategist… Or a feckless incompetent who doesn’t understand our government and how the presidency works, even though she’s second in line to becoming the president. Weird.

  139. 139.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    @MisterForkbeard: Honestly, with the insurrection and trashing of our Capitol, there is only doing and not doing. There was never any chance of Republicans removing Trump when he tried to get a foreign government to interfere in our elections but it couldn’t just be let go.

  142. 142.

    Cermet

    Nearly four years ago when the topic of nuclear launch was all the rage, the General in charge of “Looking Glass” (the plane that is the sole source for the Launch of ICBM’s) stated clearly that he alone, not the rump, would decide if a launch was needed and would not act unless we were under attack – period. It was in the WP on the front page. The dump called tRump can’t launch because there is a chain of command under him that actually orders the real launch and that General is both sane and responsible, and will not obey an illegal order. After this article was posted, the General remain (and remains) in command of Looking Glass. So, the rest of the military agreed with him and the rump was far too affraid to confront the issue. The military will obey lawful orders but not insane ones. Trust them and count on it (I certainly do.)

  144. 144.

    randy khan

     

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    As I understand it, any order that is in the football is a lawful order.

    I’m kind of curious about that.  There are orders that are obviously unlawful – “Rape that child.” – and orders that are lawful in some circumstances and not others – “Direct your mortar fire on that building.” – where it would be lawful in most cases but not lawful when the purpose of the order is to kill the commanding officer’s mother-in-law (presuming she is not a valid target for some reason).  So it would seem likely that the orders in the football are presumptively lawful, but that there could be circumstances when they are not.

    Now, you know much more about this than I do, so I won’t be surprised if I’m wrong, but I’d like to have a better understanding.

  145. 145.

    Calouste

    @Mike in NC: I think that we should go for the full damnatio memoriae , and that nothing in the United States can carry that name. The American Contract Bridge League better start thinking :)

  146. 146.

    Immanentize

    @Another Scott: the power of the purse cannot stop a thing from happening if it has already be funded.  Ever.  Congress can after-the-fact Defund (even Defund the Police).   But they cannot prevent a military action.  Anywhere.  Ever.  If ordered by the President.

    Individuals can refuse an order, but not everyone would.

  147. 147.

    Gravenstone

    @wvng: Yeah, everything we’re seeing reported posits the responses as political calculation first and foremost. Human calculation, some time later if at all.

  148. 148.

    VeniceRiley

    If the only lawful targets are contained in the football, how do we change all the targets to Russia?

  150. 150.

    randy khan

    @gene108:

    From what I read, she’s a middle aged Russian woman, whose daughter served as the interpreter

    That was the initial report, and I have no reason to think it’s wrong.  The daughter also was arrested and – chef’s kiss – apparently is some local Republican vice chair who was involved in the Trump boat parade where some of the boats sank.

  151. 151.

    Elizabelle

    Is this new to you??  [ETA:  Ah, I think it’s in the same letter.  You can tell I have not been online or read the thread yet.  Carry on.  — Elizabelle Litella]

    BREAKING NEWS

    Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House would move to impeach President Trump over his role in inciting a violent mob if he did not resign “immediately.”

    Friday, January 8, 2021 12:54 PM EST

    In a letter to members of the House, Ms. Pelosi invoked the resignation of Richard M. Nixon amid the Watergate scandal, when Republicans prevailed upon the president to resign and avoid the ignominy of an impeachment, calling Mr. Trump’s actions a “horrific assault on our democracy.

  153. 153.

    Gin & Tonic

    @debbie:

    Let’s pull a Magnitsky on him.

    Magnitsky was tortured and murdered. I think the US should be better than that.

  155. 155.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    These guys posting their insurrection pics are going to be sorry.

    I used to tell my tech writing students to dance like nobody was watching, sing like no one was listening, but text/email like you were giving a deposition on Tuesday. If I were teaching today, I’d need to add social media.

  156. 156.

    Jinchi

    @Cermet: Trump can’t launch because there is a chain of command under him that actually orders the real launch and that General is both sane and responsible, and will not obey an illegal order.

    Right. Trump doesn’t literally have a red button that launches missiles. There are people in between him and that. Hopefully they are sane and willing to disobey an illegal order.

  158. 158.

    Calouste

    @Elizabelle: I take that, specially the Nixon reference, to mean that they are pretty close to having enough votes in both the House and the Senate.

  160. 160.

    Leto

    @Immanentize: So here’s where I’m going to disagree with you. Every military member, officer/warrant/enlisted, receives training in the Law of Armed Conflict (also known as International Humanitarian Law). Everything we’re talking about here (will the chain of command carry out an order by the president for a nuclear strike) is applicable here:

    COMMANDER’S RESPONSIBILITY
    Commanders have a duty to:
    • ensure that personnel under their command are trained in the rules of the law of armed conflict;
    • give lawful and unambiguous orders;
    • take responsibility for difficult decisions;
    • ensure that their orders are lawfully carried out by their subordinates;
    • report violations by members of enemy or allied forces, including
    their own, to a higher military authority.

    To summarize, the law of armed conflict:
    • is a branch of international law;
    • governs relations between States during armed conflicts;
    • also applies to fighting within the State;
    • is intended to reduce as much as possible the suffering,
    loss and damage caused by war;
    • places obligations on persons in the States involved,
    primarily members of the armed forces;
    • is not designed to impede military efficiency in any way.

    The law protects you and is binding on you.

    So this is policy/law as far as the military is concerned. We have no ambiguity in this regard. We’ve prosecuted people under LOAC for violations in Iraq/Afghanistan. And it would 100% be applicable here because the order has to run through the military chain of command. I don’t know. If this happens I’ll leave it to the lawyers to hash out as we either dig ourselves out of the radioactive rubble, or the occupying troops round us up.

  161. 161.

    Immanentize

    @NotMax: point well taken.  But it was do this or get fired, “You can’t fire me, I quit!”

    Didn’t Nixon also say, “Get Renchberg, he’ll do it” (he meant Rehnquist who I am sure would have.  But Bork was willing….

  162. 162.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Just Some Fuckhead: Doing is a process. Following Lowtechcyclists prescription and immediately asking for impeachment yesterday would have failed. Because Pelosi has a really tight margin.

    They’ve started on the doing. They’ve got the impeachment articles written. They’re consolidating support. Biden is supposedly onboard now, and he wasn’t yesterday.

    Just because the process hasn’t completed doesn’t mean they’re failing. So like I said: Reserve judgment. But don’t collapse into caterwauling and screaming about betrayal and failure like certain other people on the board.

  163. 163.

    Emma from FL

    @Served: The deal should be that while the shit is still raining down we support our people and hold the postmortem later. It seems already clear that there will be an impeachment, short of Republicans growing a spine or Trump resigning. We don’t know the horsetrading going on behind the scenes.

  165. 165.

    randy khan

    @lowtechcyclist:

    Yes, if Nancy’s worried about Trump being able to start a nuclear war, she should have already called the House back in session in order to impeach him, so that the Senate at least has the option of removing him.  But instead, right now, they’re presumably all back in their districts, unless a secret Bat-Signal’s been sent to them all calling them back to D.C.

    Once again, I don’t give a goddamn what people SAY, if there’s stuff that they should be DOING, and all they’re doing is talking.

    Well, since it’s been amply documented that things are being done, I think you might want to back off.  The Speaker can call the House back, but if there isn’t a majority yet for impeachment there literally is no value to it, and it might damage the effort to get to the majority.  The work to get that majority – which includes deciding how the resolution should be worded – is what’s happening now.

    I won’t argue with you if you say that there should have been 430+ votes to impeach after Wednesday, but in the world we have there weren’t.  So Pelosi is dealing with the reality of the situation, not what we want to be.

  166. 166.

    MisterForkbeard

    @gwangung: I contacted my Rep. Right now the best count we have is the DailyKos google document, which sat at 160 votes in favor as of an hour ago.

    So right now, impeachment would fail in the house, barring a miracle where social and political pressure convinces a few very opinionated Representatives to change their mind and oh, also the other 50 Democrats who haven’t made a statement yet.

  167. 167.

    Ruckus

    @West of the Rockies:

    Mitch is smart. Not in a good way but still, he is not in any way technically an idiot. He is not politically sane IMO, but that is a different issue. He has been neutered politically by the GA vote, and he’s shut down the senate for the next 11-12 days, which is all he has left. After that he’s a senior member of the senate. Period. He has no more real power than that. As the leader of the ex majority though he’ll probably have a lot to say on how the now minority acts. And considering that it’s tied, I’d bet he doesn’t act too minority like.

  169. 169.

    Jinchi

    @MisterForkbeard: So right now, impeachment would fail in the house

    Just because the current count for is 160 doesn’t mean the vote would fail. Tell me how many said they would vote against, are undecided or (most likely) haven’t been contacted yet.

  170. 170.

    MCA1

    @wvng:  I don’t recall anyone suggesting that it’s in fact likely to lead to removal.  Pelosi and co. need to proceed as though it must and it will for national security reasons, however, to put pressure and political cost to Republicans.  If it’s just for the purpose of signalling that his seditious activity won’t be taken lying down and exercising Congress’s impeachment powers because to not do so in this situation effectively forfeits them, it makes it painless for Mitch and the rest of the Republican senators to not reconvene.  They can just say “symbolic gesture” and be given a free pass by the press and voters.

  171. 171.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Jinchi: Let me rephrase.

    There’s a good chance it would fail in the House. The margin is super slim, and the Reps who haven’t made a statement yet aren’t doing it because they’re secretly supportive. They haven’t made a statement because they’re not sure what to do.

  172. 172.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Just Some Fuckhead: The caterwauling has been specifically coming from lowtechcyclist and taumaturgo, who are pretty constantly on the “Democrats have failed us and are weak” beat.

    Fair point that virtually no one else is doing it. People like yourself and Jinchi are being really reasonable.

    ETA: And there we go. Announcement that impeachment is happening on Monday.

  174. 174.

    Leto

    @Emma from FL: as I told someone upstairs, the horse trading should be: we get rid of him now, you won’t have to deal with his bullshit in 2022/2024 and onward. Most of you clowns have presidential aspirations, we’re clearing the field for you.

    Both self serving and serving the nation.

  175. 175.

    CaseyL

    Three things:

    One: The Democratic House majority is not what it was during the first impeachment.

    Two: The Democratic House Caucus is an unruly bunch, spanning an ideological spectrum from AOC to Spanberger.  Getting them to agree on anything is a real feat.

    Three:  Nancy Pelosi has been at this counting-votes/herding-caucus business for a very long time. She is much less concerned with showboating than she is with effective legislative actions.

  176. 176.

    NotMax

    @Immanentize

    For those not present at the time, let being able to rattle off the names Richardson and Ruckelshaus without having to look them up serve as testament to just what a BFD it was.

    ;)

  178. 178.

    Another Scott

    @Immanentize: You’re seemingly arguing “possession is 9/10th of the law” here.

    Congress funding weapons systems does not mean that the President can do whatever he wants with them.  One could go through the FY21 NDAA and (most likely) see all kinds of restrictions on various military spending programs (3 page .pdf).

    In addition to serving as an authorization of
    appropriations, the NDAA establishes defense policies and
    restrictions, and addresses organizational administrative
    matters related to the DOD. Unlike an appropriations bill,
    the NDAA does not provide budget authority for
    government activities. Nevertheless, historically it has
    provided a fairly reliable indicator of congressional
    sentiment on subsequent appropriations for particular
    programs.

    Yes, Reagan/Bush/North went around the Contra restrictions.  Yes, Trump went around the border funding restrictions.  But those restrictions were/are there.

    Humans run these agencies and make these decisions.  Humans can and do over-ride their authority and break the norms/rules/laws.  That doesn’t mean that what they’re doing is correct/lawful/permitted.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  180. 180.

    Immanentize

    @Leto: I know that and also know that people in the military violate it often.  The assassination of Gen. Sulimani (sp?) was both an act of war and very likely illegal under international law.  Congress did not vote on it before hand and approve it.  We are not Congressionally at war with Iran.  But it happened.

    Drone assassinations are too.  But they continue.  It’s just we really don’t care that much about those rules, do we, because who is going to stop is, amirite?

    I know there are good and honorable people up and down the chain of command who will not follow a really horrible order.  But there also those who will.  And if Trump has demonstrated anything — even vile war crimes will be washed away by his pardon or that of the next Trump.

  181. 181.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    @CaseyL: I’m cool with an impeachment vote going either way. Equally important as impeachment is finding out who is cool with the president inciting insurrection, trashing of the Capitol, blood being shed. Then we can work to remove those folks in the coming years.

  182. 182.

    Ruckus

    @Another Scott:

    I don’t see how there is a practical limit to the presidential order to the military. He is the commander of the military, the top, the upper end of the command chain. Unless I’m misunderstanding what you wrote, he doesn’t have to wait for congress for approval to launch, that is why there is a “football” in the first place, the time from detection of a launch to the time of answering that with a counter strike can be measured in minutes. It’s why we have our missiles on subs, they are much harder to be able to launch at, undisclosed moving locations and all, it buys time. It’s why, back in my navy days we had rocket powered torpedos with possibly nuclear warheads, to blow up their subs. And it’s why Putin wages war with intelligence rather than brute force, we have more brute than he does. And are easily ready and able to use it – at a moments notice

    The only ding in the entire curve to response is that the president is supposed to be someone of integrity, a brain, not damaged gray matter, someone who wouldn’t use the football to spike someone else on our side of the border. Does that in any way describe the current placeholder?

  183. 183.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I very much want trump impeached, even if McConnell and Manchin smother it. But anyone who thinks Nancy Pelosi is the obstacle here is a fucking moron. And seemingly getting dumber by the week

    @CaseyL: I’m flipping through the D caucus in my head, trying to think of who constitutes the right side, and how many there are. I think Slotkin and Lamb voted against Pelosi from the right. Someone here mentioned their (trust-funder) D rep has come out against further cash payments. Just wool-gathering, really.

  184. 184.

    Leto

    @Immanentize: which leads us back to Major Hering and trying to figure this out. I don’t see total disarmament as politically feasible, but we need greater control as the last 4 years (72 hours) has shown us.

  185. 185.

    NotMax

    @CaseyL

    Will add that asking the House to complete action as rapidly as some are is like asking your pet goldfish to answer the phone.

  186. 186.

    lee

    @Leto: I would go so far to say they want him to run and be the candidate in 2024. He brings a lot of people to the polls.

    Do you think Cruz, Rubio or Cotton is going to have the draw that Trump does?

  187. 187.

    Immanentize

    @NotMax: I got to meet Elliot in Texas when I was there plying my trade.  What a gentleman.  A true mansion.  And I also worked with his son — a lawyer in NYC then — who was representing a guy on Texas Death Row.  It was a good family.

  188. 188.

    Leto

    @Ruckus: here, let me ask this: if he orders a strike right now, where are those assets going? It takes time to reprogram them, so if he were to order a strike now, where are they going? Russia? China? We don’t know. Part of the reason for the football is for an immediate counter-response; but what happens when we initiate the first strike? Is it legal? Again, per LOAC, that’s a factor for each part of the CoC this hits (which will be numerous).

    But this is also part of the insanity of the assets we possess, as exemplified by Major Hering’s story. I don’t have any of the answers and I’m no longer a part of that specific command, but I still think about it.

  190. 190.

    Ruckus

    @NotMax:

    How do you know that your pet goldfish can’t answer the phone? Just because you can’t understand (or hear) his gibberish doesn’t mean there isn’t a method to make it happen. After all, management of a large diverse team of animals not of the sheep variation is basically the job description of the speaker of the house and Nancy is very, very good at sheep herding.

  192. 192.

    Leto

    @lee: no, those three puds don’t have the same Trumpov Shinola glow, but they also have greater aspirations and that worthless turd nugget is an impediment to them. Personally I think it would be a politically smart survival tool (trying to clear the deck of the biggest dog atm), but I just comment on a top 10k blog :P

  194. 194.

    kindness

    Cheryl is correct, technically.  For my own views I would be happy with a ‘Gentleman’s Agreement’ much like what was arranged during Nixon’s last week(s) in office, even if it isn’t the letter of the law.  I say this because Republicans won’t allow a 25th Amendment nor will they vote for impeachment.  I’ll take what ever reassurances I can get.

  195. 195.

    Immanentize

    @Leto: I agree!  The problem with the football is that it requires very few people between the president’s order and launch.  As Ruckus says, the point is to NOT allow any delay between order and (counter) strike.

  196. 196.

    Poe Larity

    Pelosi should be making arrangements with the National Command Authority that she will be in California for the inauguration. Unless you want to risk a Pompeo or Munchin scenario.

  197. 197.

    Immanentize

    @Leto: You know the military better than I, but wouldn’t there be targeting for every scenario the military has gamed out?  Including non-nuclear adversaries like Iran?  Or even Turkey?  Egypt, Brazil, Japan? In case they went bad?

  199. 199.

    debbie

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I know what it is, thank you.

    We wouldn’t need more than a threat of that sort of treatment, but I think it would be the only way to show him any real consequences for his actions. After all, he risked the lives of his own  VP and members of his own party in addition to the lives of the Democrats to bully them into giving him the election win.

    He’ll tweet away the significance of a second impeachment or Removal by Amendment. What is the point of being better than him?

  202. 202.

    Ruckus

    @Leto:

    We should all think about it, because for all of my life, and that of most of the currently living on this rock, nuclear war has been a threat. A number of us here have seen what just few of our non nuclear weapons can do and most of us have seen pictures of what those can do so we know that use of them is insane. We have depended upon norms of human civilization to prevent nuclear winter, because anything less is insane. Turns out that depending on the norms of human civilization is often insane as well. For example I give you the last couple of days. How many of us thought that the president would throw a hissy fit big enough to destroy our norms? How many of us thought that our president would be the leader of the racist hoards, intent and “responsible” for attempting to overthrowing the elected government, which seems to be held together with bandaids and secret handshakes? I know we expected him to do/say something stupid, because he’s never been anything more than stupid, but this overwhelmingly, stunningly fucking stupid? And dangerous?

  203. 203.

    Immanentize

    @NotMax: That is exactly what I was thinking!!!  “Oh, we haven’t received the updated codes yet, I heard they were mailed before Christmas!”

  205. 205.

    Leto

    @Immanentize: yes, BUT you need to reprogram the assets to target specific places. It’s not like there’s a million GPS coordinates stored, you press the button and it goes where you want it to. I’m basing part of this on the knowledge I have which I can only speak about so much. Which is why if he tried to order a strike on X just to gin something up, it’s going to require a lot of logistical/legal happenings. He can’t just order a strike on X without the military having enough time to think it through. Idk. We’re in both the same, and a different world, than Hering’s.

    WRT the football, if he hits the button it’s going to bring a counter strike so devastating it just won’t matter. Not only from the targets we hit, with their own potential retaliation, but from the international community as a whole.

    Also something that nobody here is talking about is the joint EU-US nuke’s we have…

  206. 206.

    Immanentize

    @Ruckus: I have worked on and off on an article that Nuclear first strike in any situation is a war crime and crime against humanity.  It would not stop that from happening (look at the States like Israel who refuse to join the NNPT), but it might force rational states to create more protective procedures to prevent an “accident.”

  207. 207.

    Leto

    @Ruckus: oh, I know. Part of why we should continue to do nuclear weapon stockpile reductions, and limit their development. But given the last 4 years, our ability to negotiate in good faith on ANYTHING is severely diminished. Yet another Sisyphean hill Biden will have to contend with.

  208. 208.

    Immanentize

    @Leto: It is the third leg of the trident that is most worrisome — Ruckus’ subs.  They are designed to function as completely autonomous units once a nuke order comes.  Potentially and I mean potentially, more room for fast action error.  Less overall damage and a chance to stop retaliation, but still.  It gives me shivers.

  209. 209.

    Leto

    @Immanentize: there’s a book I’d recommend on that subject: Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety. Very well researched and gives a good overview of both policy, as well as the militaries role in this (policy/physical control).

  213. 213.

    gvg

    @Ruckus: No I don’t think so.

    Incoming ICBM’s are a de facto act of war and the president is free to order retaliation. That would not be an illegal act.  That was what the President was authorized to do with the football, and the military was authorized to accept that order.  Starting a fight with someone not attacking us because you lost re election doesn’t match at all.  I am sure we were able to fight back at Pearl Harbor as much as surprise allowed.

    Now I will say that when we were worried about surprise nuclear attack decades ago we might not have explained all this to the public well enough, but that is because very few serious people foresaw a situation where we elected a total moron who is also a nut.

    We are putting a tremendous burden on our military though. It isn’t fair.

  214. 214.

    Ruckus

    @Leto:

    I haven’t been in any way other than a citizen, part of the chain. I was part of the detection/destroy force, 5 decades ago, and it was a very, very minor part at most. But I’ve also been paying attention for those decades and while I’ve been concerned about the methodology of our protection system, the biggest flaw has always been time and the human condition. I’ve told of being on a navy ship that had 5 captains in 2 yrs. One very good, 2 OK, and 2 who never should have been in charge of a head cleaning detail, let alone a warship with supposedly nuclear capabilities. If that is the ratio of good to bad in the officer corp, that 40% was so far subpar that there was actual worry of what they might do next……. We’ve got, in the current CoC, a human who makes that 40% seem, Einstein like. None of the useless republican fucks that have been president in the last 50+ yrs have been as bad as this one. And this one has rabid followers, willing to overthrow the government that he heads, because the 5 yr old thumb sucker is having another tantrum. I’d ask how we got here but it’s on the backs of the KKK, which shitforbrains father was a member of. I have no idea how we fix this, except actually follow our laws and customs. In 12 days the major issue at hand will have ended or be over. The work of clean up and reconstruction has to follow or we will cease to exist as a country. Democracy is on the line, we have to do this right, which is what Nancy Pelosi is trying to do. One woman, in charge of cleaning up after pompous, arrogant, white men, once again.

  215. 215.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Dave: I would personally disobey any order to launch any nuclear attack, even if missiles were incoming–because regardless of the situation it could only make the world far worse. But that’s why I don’t have that job–people like me can’t be part of a credible deterrent. Nuclear strategy is strange.

  216. 216.

    Ruckus

    @gvg:

    Putting that burden on the military isn’t legal either. Anyone in the military does not have to follow an illegal order. They pounded that into our heads in boot camp. We read the UCMJ over and over, I expected to see 2x4s with blood stains on them as proof that the laws of the military were not just important but unshakable. It is not mutiny to not follow an illegal order, it is the sworn duty of every member of the military. That said, it is up to the individual to determine what is an illegal order. And the pain for not being right depends on the order given. If you are given an order to kill someone and you don’t, you had better be 100% right and be able to prove it. And even then you risk pretty much everything. And 99.8% of the time you don’t have the all the information to make those kinds of decisions. That maybe 1/5 of a percent of the time, it’s probably a decision of no consequence. You follow orders, you do your job, you hope that everyone else is doing theirs. But most people think about it to some degree because it’s important.

    The point is that often there isn’t time or information to make logical/strategic/effective decisions about what is an lawful order or not. There isn’t time to have a philosophical discussion or thought about it. It’s happening, you do the job you were trained for, you suffer the consequences one way or another. The military is not civilian life, nor is civilian life military, not in so many ways that it’s not really possible to understand unless you’ve been there. And then your experiences are not necessarily the same as anyone else’s. The military has to have a rather rigid structure to operate, civilian life is a lot less structured.

  218. 218.

    Ruckus

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I’m not disagreeing with you but I do have to ask the question.

    Would a person in the military, holding that “football,” handcuffed to it, have enough logical information to make that decision? They might do so out of the same concern that some have expressed in this thread, that they would consider any order to be illegal. I’d bet anyone with that kind of thought process would never be placed in that position. That would be discussed, stressed, hounded into your brain, that you don’t get to make that decision, you hand over the contents of the briefcase if ordered by the commander in chief. He will deal with others higher up the chain of command in making the order. The person, as I understand it, is a somewhat junior officer, and probably for that reason, that the fear of being wrong is overwhelming. It’s a horrible responsibility and I’d bet that a lot of that is taken out of his hands, specifically because any delay could be a major issue that this person has no knowledge of.

  220. 220.

    The Moar You Know

    Just because the current count for is 160 doesn’t mean the vote would fail. Tell me how many said they would vote against, are undecided or (most likely) haven’t been contacted yet.

    @Jinchi: the one thing I learned solidly from Caro’s “Master of the Senate” biography of Johnson (there are four or five, all amazing) is that you NEVER count votes in the manner that you’re proposing.  You will fail every single time.

    It was that practice of not moving until he knew the vote of every single senator, more than anything else, that made LBJ the most effective leader the Senate has ever seen.  Because when he moved, he won.  Every single time.

  221. 221.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @randy khan: The plans in the nuclear football have all been vetted by military lawyers. Trump gets to choose one.

    Some of nuclear Twitter is currently discussing whether it would be lawful to choose one out of thin air, when no other country has made a move against us. I’ve thought that the commonsense answer should be that it’s not, but that war stuff sometimes works in funny ways.

  222. 222.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Ruckus: What I HOPE is that the football carriers have had some difficult discussions with their superior officers. They are at the Lieutenant Colonel level, high enough to be pretty well-informed, low enough not to be able to argue with the President. And they can see with their own eyes if he is screaming and incoherent, as some reports have it.

    I also HOPE that, whatever the outcomes of those discussions, they will resist if it comes to that. But I am sure that the people chosen for this duty have a clear record of obeying orders.

    Immenantize is making some good points.

  223. 223.

    Philbert

    After House Impeachment but prior to Senate Conviction or acquittal, he cannot pardon. Is this true? If so, impeach him and Mitch might well just slow-walk it.

  224. 224.

    NotMax

    @Philbert

    The only part of the pardon power affected is that crimes or actions cited in the articles of impeachment, as passed majority vote, cannot be pardoned.

    Any other uses of the power of pardon remain intact.

  226. 226.

    Ruckus

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Agreed.

    I hope the future is not on the back of one military officer. No matter how good that one officer is. The system doesn’t give him or her the authority to actually make that decision. That they might do so to protect the nation would be so far outside their jurisdiction as a military person, as a citizen, is probably not an unforeseen possibility but would it be even a thought of as an act on their part? Look at the woman killed in the Capital Building. What if she were the officer with the football, given what little we know about her now?

  228. 228.

    Anya

    I love Nancy Smash but I honestly thought this was highly problematic and dangerous. We don’t want to give the military more power than they already have. We are not the Philippines or Russia. We are governed by a constitution and the president doesn’t answer to the military.

  229. 229.

    Bill Arnold

    @Anya:

    president doesn’t answer to the military.

    This president answers to the demon in his skull.
    I’m not sure I understand your point. Is it that the president should be allowed to destroy human civilization on an insane whim?

  230. 230.

    Feathers

    @Cheryl Rofer: @Ruckus: Dead thread, but I knew (know? don’t know if he’s still alive) one of the football Colonels. Husband of one of my mother’s best friends. At the house often, even came to holiday dinners if they weren’t traveling. Very good combination of smarts and warm people skills. If he’s anything to go by, they choose well for the role.

  231. 231.

    cwmoss

    @Cheryl Rofer: Farley and the folks at LGM have been discussing this most of the afternoon. Interesting stuff. Oh, and maybe the psychopath in the White House could start WWIII. Sleep well, everyone!

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