Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

I really should read my own blog.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Everybody saw this coming.

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

He really is that stupid.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

The GOP couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

“Squeaker” McCarthy

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Bark louder, little dog.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday/Friday, Jan. 28-29

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday/Friday, Jan. 28-29

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Floridians — is this verifiable?

Reader Interactions

70Comments

  1. 1.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 1/28 China reported 36 new domestic confirmed, 23 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 1 domestic suspect case.

    Beijing Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic suspect cases. The confirmed case is traced close contact already under centralized quarantine since 1/18. No information on the suspect case. There are currently 2 villages (both at Shunyi District) at Medium Risk. 1 community (at Daxing District) is at High Risk.

    Hebei Province:

    Hebei Provincial Health Commission reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. 35 domestic confirmed case recovered & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There are currently 627 domestic confirmed cases (5 critical, 24 serious, 479 moderate and 119 mild) & 64 domestic asymptomatic cases in the province:

    • Xingtai did not report any new domestic positive case. 7 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There are currently 45 domestic confirmed & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. Nangong District remains at High Risk, 1 residential compound at Longyao County remains at Medium Risk.
    • Langfang did not report any new domestic positive cases. There are 1 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases there. 1 residential compound remain at Medium Risk.
    • Dingzhou in Baoding did not report any new domestic positive cases. There is 1 domestic confirmed case there. 1 residential compound was elevated to Medium Risk.
    • Shijiazhuang reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (at Xinle District), a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine since 1/16. 28 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 3 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. Currently, there are 580 confirmed cases & 56 asymptomatic cases. 1 village & 10 residential buildings were re-designated as Low Risk. There are 5 residential compounds, 4 villages & 1 residential building at Medium Risk in the city. Gaocheng & Xinle Districts remain at High Risk. Lock downs are being lifted in stages in 8 districts without recent cases, after 20+ days of strict low down.

     

    Heilongjiang Province:

    Heilongjiang Province reported 21 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 16 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 22 confirmed cases recovered & 4 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There are currently 495 domestic confirmed (2 critical, 25 serious, 322 moderate and 146 mild) & 537 domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.:

    • Suihua reported 12 new domestic confirmed & 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Wangkui County. No case information released so far. 18 confirmed cases recovered & 3 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There are currently 405 domestic confirmed & 374 domestic asymptomatic cases there. 8 residential compound at Beilin were elevated to Medium Risk. 17 residential compounds & 6 villages are at Medium Risk. The entire Wangkui County, as well as 2 villages at Hailun, remain at High Risk.
    • Harbin reported 9 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 6 asymptomatic cases. Hulan District reported 8 confirmed & 3 asymptomatic cases, Limin Dev. Zone reported 1 asymptomatic case, Nangang District reported 1 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic case. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There are currently 83 domestic confirmed & 129 asymptomatic cases there. 1 community (in Limin Dev. Zone) remains at High Risk. 2 sub-districts were elevated to Medium Risk. 18 sub-districts, 3 townships, 1 village & 4 residential building units remain at Medium Risk.
    • Qiqihar did not report any new domestic positive cases. 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from quarantine. There are 1 domestic confirmed & 29 domestic asymptomatic cases there. 1 village remains at Medium Risk.
    • Yichun did not report any new domestic positive cases. There are 2 domestic asymptomatic cases there.
    • Daqing did not report any new positive cases. There are 2 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases there. 1 residential building unit was re-designated to Low Risk. 1 residential building unit remains at Medium Risk.

     

    Jilin Province 

    Jilin Province reported 13 new domestic confirmed cases (10 previously asymptomatic) & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There are currently 305 confirmed (13 critical, 25 serious, 181 moderate and 86 mild) & 87 asymptomatic cases there.:

    • Songyuan did not report any new domestic confirmed cases. There are 4 domestic confirmed cases there. 1 residential compound and 1 residential building are at Medium Risk.
    • Tonghua reported 11 new domestic confirmed (9 previously asymptomatic) & 7 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 confirmed & 4 asymptomatic cases are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine, 3 asymptomatic cases were found via mass screening (already under home quarantine). 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There are currently 212 domestic confirmed & 77 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. The entire Dongchang District remains at High Risk. 1 residential compound at the High Tech. Dev. Zone remains at Medium Risk.
    • Changchun reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine. There are currently 89 domestic confirmed & 10 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 2 residential compounds were re-designated as Low Risk. 1 township & 1 residential compound are at Medium Risk.

     

    Shanghai Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. Currently there are 16 confirmed cases in the city. 2 residential compounds, 1 residential area and 1 hotel are currently at Medium Risk. 

    Imported Cases:

    On 1/28, China reported 16 new imported confirmed cases, 19 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:

    • Shanghai Municipality – 9 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals each returning from Mexico (via Germany) and Japan, and 1 each returning from Guinea (via Paris CdG), the UAE and France, a Canadian national coming from the US and a Russian national coming fro Russia (via Turkey & Switzerland); 1 suspect case, no information released
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 5 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from the US, Myanmar, Nepal, Mozambique & Senegal; 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from the Congo (Kinshasa) & Ghana
    • Shenzhen in Guangdong Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Kenya & Uganda
    • Jiangmen in Guangdong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Iraq, off flights that landed at Guangzhou
    • Tianjin Municipality – 1 confirmed cases, a Chinese national returning from the US
    • Changsha in Hunan Province – 1 confirmed case (previously asymptomatic), no information released
    • Chongqing Municipality – 4 asymptomatic cases, 3 Chinese nationals returning from Nepal & 1 from Kyrgyzstan 
    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Romania & Indonesia
    • Nanjing in Jiangsu Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Yiwu in Jinhua, Zhenjiang Province – 1 asymptomatic case, an Indian national coming from India (via Nepal); the case landed at Guangzhou on 1/12, passed through the 14 days of centralized quarantine and tested negative on RT-PCR 3 times, upon release from quarantine on 1/26 he traveled by car to Yiwu and arriving on 1/27, when he reentered centralized quarantine and tested positive on 1/28
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Turkey (via Amsterdam Schipol)
    • Zhengzhou in Henan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released 
    • Fuzhou in Fujian Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, both Chinese nationals returning from Indonesia
    • Sanming in Fujian Province –  1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Canada; the case landed at Xiamen on 1/4, passed through the 14 days of centralized quarantine and tested negative on RT-PCR multiple times, upon release from quarantine on 1/20 the case was transferred to Sanming and reentered 7 day centralized quarantine and tested positive in the evening of 1/27

     

    Overall in China, 70 confirmed cases recovered, 22 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation and 12 were reclassified as confirmed cases, and 1,448 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,802 active confirmed cases in the country (300 imported), 99 are in critical/serious condition (4 imported), 996 asymptomatic cases (293 imported), 2 suspect cases (1 imported). 38,876 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    On 1/29, Hong Kong reported 50 new cases, 2 imported and 48 domestic (16 of whom do not have sources of infection identified).

  2. 2.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY yesterday:

    318 new cases. 634 hospitalized, 134 in the ICU.
    We’re at 937 deaths now. 33% of hospital beds available, 24% of ICU beds available. 4.4% positivity.

    It looks like when the number of people hospitalized goes down it’s because the covid patients died.

  3. 3.

    sab

    I supposedly retired last year, abrubtly, because of Covid fears.
    Just got a call from my boss, wanting me back for tax season.

    These guys are old line normal Republicans. Head of local Chamber of Commerce and Rotary. Big local commercial landlords. Probably discreetly active in Republican politics.

    But he hasn’t figured out how to get his 80 year old parents Covid shots, although by state standards they are eligible

    ETA All the married women accountants in the practice, either wives or wives/mothers, want to work remotely only.

  4. 4.

    VeniceRiley

    We’re going to have to ramp up boosters for the variants. SA in particular. But great news about Novavax, Why are we trialling 30K here in addition to the 15K from UK? UK will approve asap, I think. We really need to be faster fotted and adapt out shots faster. I’m seeing more and more social media posts talking about dead people close to the posters

    And we should be rushing vax for the variant to the whole of South Africa to tamp that down asap.

  5. 5.

    sab

    @YY_Sima Qian: My brother in law has talked about being sent to Jilin Province during the Cultural Revolution. Once a week they were allowed to go to the nearest village to see movies. They carried pans they banged on to scare away tigers. I kid you not.

  6. 6.

    mrmoshpotato

    New Zealand authorities say a woman returning to New Zealand who was placed in a 14-day mandatory hotel quarantine and a man working there were found in an inappropriate encounter.

    ‘were found fucking one another’ saves ink.

  10. 10.

    ant

    I went looking for more context:

    “All anyone talks about these days is the pandemic. We need to stop that,” said Bolsonaro during the speech, which was ostensibly on tourism.

    “I regret the deaths. I really do. But we’re all going to die someday. There’s no use fleeing reality. We have to stop being a country of fags…. We have to face up to it and fight. I hate this faggot stuff.”

    wow.

  11. 11.

    NotMax

    FYI.

    Seven Hawaii National Guard members who deployed to Washington, D.C. to provide security for President Biden’s inauguration have tested positive for COVID.
    [snip]

    All 193 troops were swabbed before heading into a mandatory 14-day quarantine.

    Military officials confirm the seven Guard members who tested positive are from Oahu and that they are asymptomatic and isolating. Source

  15. 15.

    NotMax

    Long distance jabbing.

    As part of a new state program, pharmacists and nurses are going directly to small residential care and foster homes to vaccinate fragile and isolated kupuna.
    [snip]
    “Every day we are vaccinating 130 people across 20 homes on Oahu on a daily basis and we plan to do this over the course of three weeks,” said Reece Uyeno, Pharmacare Hawaii clinical pharmacy manager.

    “We don’t plan on stopping until we get to every home to get the shot,” he added.

    The state hopes to vaccinate patients and caregivers in 1,700 licensed care homes by summer.

    So far, about a third got the first dose ― with 5,400 shots administered last week. Source

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @sab: Yeah, those were part of the formative experience of a generation of Chinese. Mao first incited the idealistic and headstrong youths, who literally idolized him, into revolutionary fervor and carried out atrocities that reflected the worst of humanity (against their elders and against anything traditional). They were the infamous Red Guards. (Not saying all Red Guards participated in atrocities. Most did not, but all took actions that they would look in retrospect with shame.) When the youthful violence and anarchy got out of hand, he then sent them by the millions into the countryside to “learn from the peasants”. Xi Jinping himself was sent to live in a cave in Shaanxi Province for years, while his father was purged and sister committed suicide. My mom was a Red Guard. My dad, despite being a graduate of a prestigious military engineering university, was nevertheless sent to work in a small radio factory on the border with North Korea. I only learned recently it was because my paternal grandfather was born of a wealthy landlord family before the Revolution, and that he had fell into disfavor of the CCP regime despite actively participating in Leftist agitation movements before the Revolution. He was deemed having unfavorable background.

    By the time, the Cultural Revolution ended, the youths emerged from the countryside to find that they (and China in general) had squandered 10 years in civil warfare.

  18. 18.

    Shalimar

    Publix is making a huge mistake allying so closely with DeSantis.  Grocery store profit margins are not high.  I probably did 30% of my shopping there last year.  That is over for good.  I doubt I’m the only one.

  20. 20.

    polyorchnid octopunch

    The AP article referenced above in the tweet has a very typical sort of mainstream framing. I replied to their tweet with this: “You mean Republican state lawmakers, don’t you? The only state mentioned in your article with a Democratic lege is Maryland, and they’re not trying to curb gubernatorial powers to declare mask mandates, just to spend money without any oversight at all.”

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @sab: Addendum, my parents met at the small town with the small radio factory on the border with North Korea. While I was born in Beijing, my parents took me on a slow train to there a month after I was born, though I have almost no memory of the place.

    It is in fact in Jilin Province, not too far from Tonghua, one of the two hot spots in the province.

  23. 23.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s daily Covid-19 numbers. Director-General of Health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah reports a record 5,725 new cases today in his media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 203,933 cases. He also reports 16 new deaths today, for a total of 733 deaths — 0.36% of the cumulative reported total, 0.46% of resolved cases.

    There are currently 45,478 active and contagious cases; 301 are in ICU, 115 of them requiring intubation. Meanwhile, 3,428 patients recovered and were discharged, for a total of 157,722 patients recovered — 77.3% of the cumulative reported total.

    12 new clusters were reported today: Persiaran Subang and Industri Indah in Selangor; Jalan Klang building site and Jalan Vista building site in KL; Jalan Kota Burok, Jalan By Pass, Jalan Bistari Dua, Jalan Empayar, and Jalan Rusa Scientex in Johor; Jalan Sepanggar and Tinanom in Sabah; and Tabong in Sarawak.

    Tinanom and Tabong are community clusters. The rest are all workplace clusters.

    5,718 new cases today are local infections. Selangor alone reports a whopping 3,126 cases: 912 in older clusters, 20 in Persiaran Subang and Industri Indah clusters, 1,627 close-contact screenings, and 567 other screenings. KL reports 136 local cases: 912 in older clusters, 81 in Jalan Klang building site and Jalan Vista building site clusters, 193 close-contact screenings, and 271 other screenings. Johor reports 684 cases: 200 in older clusters; 84 in Jalan Kota Burok, Jalan By Pass, Jalan Bistari Dua, Jalan Empayar, and Jalan Rusa Scientex clusters; 266 close-contact screenings; and 134 other screenings. Sabah reports 288 cases: 16 in older clusters, 32 in Jalan Sepanggar and Tinanom clusters, 167 close-contact screenings, and 73 other screenings.

    Sarawak reports 179 cases: 102 in older clusters, six in Tabong cluster, 22 close-contact screenings, and 49 other screenings. Terengganu reports 136 local cases: 22 in existing clusters, 71 close-contact screenings, and 43 other screenings. Kedah reports 125 cases: 16 in existing clusters, 24 close-contact screenings, and 85 other screenings.

    Penang reports 99 cases: nine in existing clusters, 42 close-contact screenings, and 48 other screenings. Kelantan reports 93 cases: two in existing clusters, 50 close-contact screenings, and 41 other screenings. Melaka reports 74 cases: 31 in existing clusters, 23 close-contact screenings, and 20 other screenings. Perak reports 73 cases: nine in existing clusters, 36 close-contact screenings, and 28 other screenings. Negeri Sembilan reports 69 cases: 19 in existing clusters, 31 close-contact screenings, and 19 other screenings. Pahang reports 67 cases: 16 in existing clusters, 29 close-contact screenings, and 22 other screenings.

    Putrajaya reports 16 cases: one in an existing cluster, 11 close-contact screenings, and four other screenings. Labuan reports five cases: two in existing clusters, one close-contact screening, and two other screenings. And Perlis reports three cases, all found in other screening.

    Seven new cases are imported. Six were reported in KL and one in Terengganu.

    The 16 deaths reported today are a 70-year-old man in Selamgor, DOA with diabetes, hypertension, stroke, and chronic kidney disease; a 67-year-old woman in KL with hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and chronic liver disease; a 64-year-old man in Sabah with diabetes; a 40-year-old man in Sarawak with hypertension and dyslipidaemia; a 93-year-old man in Selangor with diabetes, hypertension, and chronic obstructive airway disease; a 55-year-old man in Selangor with diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease; a 59-year-old man im Selangor, DOA with hypertension, heart disease, and chronic kidney disease; a 36-year-old woman in Selangor with obesity; a 37-year-old man in Melaka with diabetes; a 74-year-old woman in Selangor with diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease; a 64-year-old man in Selangor, DOA with diabetes and hypertension; a 63-year-old woman in Kelantan with diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia; a 56-year-old woman in Selangor with diabetes and hypertension; a 75-year-old woman in Selangor with diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease;a 58-year-old manin Sabah, DOA with hypertension; and an 82-year-old man in Perak, DOA with hypertension, dyslipidaemia.

  26. 26.

    Matt McIrvin

    @VeniceRiley:

    And we should be rushing vax for the variant to the whole of South Africa to tamp that down asap.

    I was thinking about that, hearing Fauci talk about developing vaccines for the South African variant. Never mind our supply of that stuff–we need to be vaccinating them! Cyril Ramaphosa has been sounding the alarm about rich countries hoarding vaccine, and he has a point–this hurts everybody, if it just rages out of control. But if it takes as long to get the new version tested and approved as it did the old one, we could be forever playing catch-up.

  27. 27.

    Geminid

    @ant: Bolsonaro may have been listening to the ultra-orthodox Israeli rabbi who believes that the Covid-19 crisis was manufactured by Bill Gates and the Freemasons, and warned his followers that the vaccine “can make them gay.” When asked to comment on the rabbi’s remarks, a spokesman for the Israeli LGBTQ advocacy group Havruta said that “we are currently gearing up to welcome our new members.”      From the Jerusalem Post.

  30. 30.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Geminid: It’s fascinating that stated levels of vaccine hesitancy in Brazil are so low–way lower than here–even though Bolsonaro is spouting this garbage. The main concern of Brazilians about the vaccine is not being able to get it.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    Thank you again Anne, and everyone.

    overafuckin year now and another year or more to go.

    masks, 6 feet asshole and wash your hands you dirty, filthy animals might become permanent.

  34. 34.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @ant: No wow, just the merely another useless man child luzer like Trump who isn’t up to the big boy job he has.

  35. 35.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Baud: COITUS-19.

    That many?? In how long???

    Brings to mind two things. One is a brief story from Frederic Brown (collected in his Nightmares and Geezenstacks):

    Expedition: (MF&SF, Feb. 1957). The first manned flight to Mars, and the thirty-strong colonisation party are chosen by drawing lots. Which is how Captain ‘Mighty’ Maxon wound up sharing the red planet with twenty-nine women. And also how he earned his nickname.

    The other is a venerable old dirty ditty from junior high school (back when there was such a thing):

    All day, all night, Mary Ann,
    All day, all night, Mary Ann,
    All day, all night, Mary Ann –
    Who the hell you think I am, Superman??

    :^D

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Didn’t the outbreak at Victoria in Australia also traced to “inappropriate encounters” between guests and staff at quarantine hotels?

  37. 37.

    Sloane Ranger

    Yesterday in the UK we had 28,680 new cases. This is an increase of around 3300 from the day before but a decrease of 29.4% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by home nations,

    England – 26,182 (up @3000)

    Northern Ireland – 592 (up 65)

    Scotland – 1201 (down @130)

    Wales – 705 (up @170).

    Cases are showing a downward trend across all home nations.

    Deaths – There were 1239 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday and the rolling 7-day average shows a decrease of 0.2%. New deaths by nation, England – 1088, Northern Ireland – 13, Scotland – 82 and Wales – 56.

    Testing – On Wednesday, 27th January, 771,710 tests were conducted out of a capacity of 812,225. This is an increase in the rolling 7-day average of 3.2%.

    Hospitalisations – On Tuesday, 26th January 36,931people were in hospital and 3937 people were on ventilators on Wednesday, 27th. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions is down 11%.

    Vaccinations – As of 27th January, 7,447,199 people had received their 1st dose of a vaccine and 476,298 had received their 2nd dose. The vaccine roll-out seems to be going smoothly and a number of people I know from my U3A Group have already received or have appointments to receive their 1st dose. Locally, at least, they seem to have moved down into the over 70 age group. There is a lot of publicity currently with commentators patting themselves on the back about the amount of vaccine the government has managed to snag and how well the vaccination programme is going. I keep screaming at the TV/Radio not to keep saying stuff like that in case they jinx things.

    Nothing else of note.

  38. 38.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    Brazil sort of sums up the problem with stooping the pandemic, clearly president dickless man baby isn’t going to undermine even the vaccinations.  The largest country in South America is going to end up a disease factory because this idiot one concern is life is hiding his repressed homosexuality.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Sloane Ranger: I haven’t paid close attention, but the testing numbers in the UK has really increased by leaps and bounds. That, and the vaccine roll out, are probably been the only two areas of COVID-19 response that BoJo managed competently in the past month. 12 weeks between doses, on the other hand, we shall have to see if the risky move pays off.

  40. 40.

    Uncle Cosmo

    (O/t: Intermittent failure of comment leaving – try to reply to someone’s comment and not only does the nym replied to not show up, the comment window is locked so nothing can be posted therein. This happened consistently Thursday evening, I got a reply comment in this morning OK, but now it’s back, dammit.)

    Replying to OH at #28: Another junior-high dirty-ditty:

    Hey baby, let’s take a chance –
    I left my rubbers in my other pants…

  41. 41.

    Soprano2

    Bolsonaro has the same attitude toward COVID that many Republicans seem to, especially Republican men – “What are you afraid of, you pussy? I’m not afraid of a little bit of flu” is their main attitude, at least until they get it and get really sick and die or one of their loved ones does. It’s amazing to me that they cannot learn from the experience of others, only from their own direct experience.

  43. 43.

    Platonicspoof

    @ant:

    Longer account of repeat disaster in Manaus (from the AAAS), titled  “Herd Immunity by Infection Is Not an Option”:

    However, even with an estimated 76% of the population being infected, it appears the HIT was not reached. It is unclear whether this is due to waning immunity after infection, to a higher HIT  (Herd Immunity Threshold – my clarification)
    than previously anticipated, or possibly a lower attack rate than estimated. Accruing
    data on reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 suggests that primary infection may not consistently confer long-term immunity to all infected, although the frequency of reinfection and the correlates of an effective immune response remain poorly understood.

     

    What the findings of Buss et al. definitively show is that pursuing herd immunity through naturally acquired infection is not a strategy that can be considered. Achieving herd immunity through infection will be very costly in terms of mortality and morbidity, with little guarantee of success.

  44. 44.

    Peale

    @polyorchnid octopunch: yep. It’s just galling to frame the issue that way. Those legislatures could have passed laws at any time, but refused to do so because they got more political mileage from standing in the way.

  45. 45.

    Peale

    @Soprano2: Bolsonaro may be the most thoroughly homophobic leader on the planet at the moment. He’s personally obsessed with homosexuality on a fundamental level. Like every decision he makes is evaluated through the lens of whether someone else might think him gay for making it. It’s pathetic. It comes up all to the surface all the time.

  46. 46.

    NotMax

    re: the article linked at #1 above, noticed one of those quoted within goes by the nym “Captain RedorDead.”

    For any alive during (or aware of) the 1950s, a mind boggling construction.

  47. 47.

    Sloane Ranger

    @YY_Sima Qian:

     

    I haven’t paid close attention, but the testing numbers in the UK has really increased by leaps and bounds. That, and the vaccine roll out, are probably been the only two areas of COVID-19 response that BoJo managed competently in the past month. 12 weeks between doses, on the other hand, we shall have to see if the risky move pays off.

    Yes, and these are the two areas which the government has left entirely in the hands of experts, so I’m not sure that BoJo can take any credit for any of it. I’m sure he’ll try though.

    As for the 12 week gap, yes, it’s a risk. The government thinking is that, given the high numbers of people with the virus and the increased transmissibility of the UK mutation, it’s better to have lots of people with some protection than a few people with the best protection and, if it’s proves to be a problem later, we’ll worry about it then. A radio programme I listen to had an expert on who said that, while the new vaccines hadn’t been specifically tested on this, what we know about two dose vaccines generally indicated that a 12 week gap would be OK but he wouldn’t want to leave it any longer.

  49. 49.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Sloane Ranger:

    Yes, and these are the two areas which the government has left entirely in the hands of experts, so I’m not sure that BoJo can take any credit for any of it. I’m sure he’ll try though.

    Well, that makes sense. At least BoJo had the sense to leave these two critical areas entirely to experts. That’s damning with faint praise, but COVID-19 response across much of the world has really lowered the bat to rock bottom.

  50. 50.

    Mai Naem mobile

    Arizona’s deaths from COVID in 2019 was around 9050. 9050 not 9500. We are more than likely going to hit 13000 in the next couple of days. That’s 4000 for the month of January.  It’s just incredibly awful.

  51. 51.

    Platonicspoof

    Since testing in the U.S. has been inconsistent, these authors have done a study to estimate under-reporting of COVID-19 infections:

    Adjusting for under-reporting, researchers estimated that approximately 14% of Americans had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by mid-November, suggesting the burden is much larger than the reported case count, they said.

     

    In total, they calculated that 46.9 million SARS-CoV-2 infections . . . .  occurred in the United States through Nov. 15.  As of Jan. 5, there were just under 30 million reported cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., according to tracking by Johns Hopkins University.

     

    Via Helio.

  52. 52.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Sloane Ranger: Re: COVID-19 testing in the UK. Scotland was supposed to get a new PCR testing centre with plans for it to be repurposed for other medical testing functions after the COVID-19 crisis abates but it’s been cancelled since apparently it was considered not necessary. Several smaller testing hubs have come on-line recently in Scotland though.

     

    As for the 12-week gap between vaccinations that’s an expected maximum, not an absolute figure. It’s likely that people who are getting their first vaccination around this time will receive their second booster shot well before the beginning of May, 12 weeks from now as more vaccine stocks are delivered and can be allocated for second-shot treatments. Right now though those future deliveries are not guaranteed, just contracted for hence the first-inoculation procedure being implemented in the UK.

  53. 53.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: yes. First world countries thought they were so far removed from dealing with death and plagues. Society and supply lines, even in rich countries are a  lot more fragile than people think. Logistics is more important than most people have any inclining of.

  54. 54.

    Barbara

    @Uncle Cosmo: ​

    You have to click “text” in order to enable the text box features. It is defaulting to “visual,” for reasons that seem to have nothing to do with any manual setting we can control.

    ETA:  This started happening last night at around 8:00 pm.  It took me a few times to figure out what was happening.  I am not even sure why there is a “visual” option, TBH.

  55. 55.

    Barbara

    @Platonicspoof:

    In total, they calculated that 46.9 million SARS-CoV-2 infections

    I am actually surprised it’s that low.  I read that there are around 27 million documented cases, and I assumed that the true number was probably at least twice that number, because of the preponderance of mild or asymptomatic cases, and the complete clusterfuck that surrounds diagnostic testing, still.  At any rate, around 27 million people have gotten at least one shot, which confers a significant amount of immunity, at least in the short run.  Add those numbers together and you get to around 74 million people who have a reasonable amount of immunity.  That is between 20-25% of people.  It’s not herd immunity, not by a long shot BUT as more people get vaccinated we should see a drop in disease transmission even among the unvaccinated.  I know that they don’t have definitive evidence that vaccinated people are not infectious, but it is more likely than not to be the case.

    Totally staying vigilant and not going anywhere, but my confidence is increasing that we really are in the home stretch here.

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    J&J/Janssen just announced summaries of the interim Phase III trials of its vaccine: 100% protection against hospitalization, 85% efficacy against severe disease, 66% against moderate or above. That 66% number is the one thrown about in MSM. 66% efficacy is overall across 3 regions, with some differences likely due to the dominant strains. Efficacy against moderate & severe illness was 72% in the US, 66% in Latin America and 57% in South Africa, though those figures may all be in the 95% confidence interval and the South Africa trial only had 15% of trial participants. The results are actually not bad for a single dose vaccine. A Phase III trial for 2-shot dosing regimen is ongoing, and should produce substantially better results.

    Novavax’s also released interim result summaries of Phase III trials of its 2 shot vaccine. 89.3% efficacy overall, 95.6% against the original strains, 85.6% against the B.1.1.7 variant discovered in the UK, and 60% against the 501Y.V2/B.1.351 variant discovered in South Africa. No clear definition of efficacy here (seems to be against mild or above, based on the company’s press release).

    These are interim results based on less than 100 infections, so error bars around the numbers are huge. However, both vaccines should be very helpful in minimizing the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially with J&J/Janssen’s 2 shot regimen.

    I do note, though am not at all surprised by, the dramatically different tone in coverage from Anglosphere MSM with respect to these 2 vaccines, versus SinoVac’s. Sinovac vaccines’ Brazilian Phase III trial result showed 100% efficacy against moderate & severe illness, 78% against mild, and 50.3% “general efficacy” against “very mild” illness, when trial participants are all HCWs and with the more infectious E484K/P.1. variant (first discovered in Brazil) likely increasingly prevalent. Yet, only the 50.3% figure is ever reported in western MSM now, while the same outlets happily cite J&J/Janssen’s 85% efficacy against severe and 66% efficacy moderate illness without context. The EU and the UK are also posturing over access to the Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine, despite the inconsistencies in Phase III trial protocols and efficacy results. Finally, the 95% efficacies estimated for Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines are based on US Phase III trials. Their efficacies could suffer some against the B.1.1.7, P.1 and especially the B.1.351 variants. Of course, we all wait for academic and serious science writers to normalize the trial results from all of these vaccines so apples to apples comparisons can be made, though that requires the detailed trial data from Sinovac, SinoPharm, Novavax and J&J/Janssen. Sinovac and SinoPharm have just submitted trial data to the WHO to gain approval for inclusion in the COVAX program. Hopefully we will have more insight there.

    This is not a knock against any of the vaccines. All of them would be enormously helpful and I would happily take any of them (even Sputnik V). I am just depressed by the geopolitical posturing, propaganda and journalistic malpractice coming from all corners.

  58. 58.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Barbara:

    I am actually surprised it’s that low.  I read that there are around 27 million documented cases, and I assumed that the true number was probably at least twice that number, because of the preponderance of mild or asymptomatic cases, and the complete clusterfuck that surrounds diagnostic testing, still.

    They are estimating 46.9M infections by Nov. 15, 2020. That is well before the massive holidays wave. Probably > 100M infections by now, since positivity rates had jumped in most of the US from Nov. on.

  59. 59.

    Robert Sneddon

    The EU Medicines Agency as expected has just announced approval for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55862233

    There’s now a scramble going on to secure supplies of this vaccine — the EU says it has a “binding contract” with the manufacturers but supplies are limited and the UK also has contracts for supply and has been getting deliveries of this vaccine for a few weeks now.

  60. 60.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Barbara: I should stipulate that I would happily take any vaccines that is approved by the WHO and/or major regulatory authorities.

  61. 61.

    Barbara

    @YY_Sima Qian:  Yes, it should be understood that I would only take a vaccine that had cleared robust regulatory hurdles. I know that some believe that data supporting the Indian, Chinese and Russian vaccines should be more transparent. Sinovac is also being studied in Brazil, so hopefully the most recent data will help put that concern to rest.

    ETA: I have seen some indication that people might be  holding out for the most effective vaccine, and I think that would be a mistake, especially given supply issues.  Get the one that is offered and if you feel concerned, then maybe get another later once supply is less of an issue.

  62. 62.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Barbara:

    ETA: I have seen some indication that people might be  holding out for the most effective vaccine, and I think that would be a mistake, especially given supply issues.  Get the one that is offered and if you feel concerned, then maybe get another later once supply is less of an issue.

    Yeah, vaccine picking is misguided. The Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines probably do not have 95% efficacy against the B.1.351 and P.1 variants with the E484K mutation. And keep masking and maintain at least some distancing even after immunization, even after 2 weeks after the 2nd shot. By the time most people get the shots, variants with the E484K mutation will probably be dominant across the globe. We all will need booster shots then.

  63. 63.

    Platonicspoof

    @Barbara:

    I couldn’t quickly find a number for cases since Nov. 15, but headlines say we were over 10 million at time of study data end. 25 1/2 million now. If correct, back of envelope says 115 million cases now by their methodology. But since we don’t know length or degree of resistance over time, viral loads, etc., etc., etc. etc., I too, am ” Totally staying vigilant and not going anywhere.”

  64. 64.

    Lacuna Synechdoche

    AP via Anne Laurie @ Top:

    New Zealand authorities say a woman returning to New Zealand who was placed in a 14-day mandatory hotel quarantine and a man working there were found in an inappropriate encounter.

    The final sentence of the story reads:

    Authorities and people around the country remain highly tuned to any breaches at the border.

    Wondering if the double entendre was intended …

  65. 65.

    J R in WV

    There have been at least 85,000 #Covid19 deaths in the US this month alone. That’s more than double the number of people (38,800) who died in motor vehicle accidents in the US in all of 2019.

    So… this means I can drive FAST now since so few folks are dying on the road, right? Right?

  66. 66.

    J R in WV

    @Sloane Ranger:

    …There were 1239 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday…

    So, I’m thinking about this statistic.

    Do they not count people who take longer than 28 days to die, then?

    Seems like that will distort the death statistics somewhat to me.

    Off topic:  This time my commenting worked as expected, but thread navigation is werry strange!!

  67. 67.

    J R in WV

    @Barbara:

    I am not even sure why there is a “visual” option, TBH.

    Because many WWW users still are completely unfamiliar with HTML and find dealing with it like trying to understand a user guide for  a ventilator written in Mandarin.

  68. 68.

    J R in WV

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    I am just depressed by the geopolitical posturing, propaganda and journalistic malpractice coming from all corners.

    While there is plenty of geopolitical posturing and propaganda going on, I don’t think the Journalistic malpractice is really malpractice.

    These reporters are not health care educated persons at all.

    They don’t understand that these vaccines all have varying levels of success at varying levels of illness at all, so they don’t know that they need to be sure the efficacy levels are being compared apples to apples, rather than vis kumquats.

    So journalistic ignorance showing up badly, probably. I very much doubt it’s at all deliberate. The politicians, on the other hand…

  69. 69.

    Another Scott

    @Platonicspoof: I saw that a few days ago.  It’s very sobering.

    I heard a report on NPR in the last day or so that mentioned “herd immunity may be achieved in the summer”.  (Probably based on the old 60% somehow immune number.)  I find that really hard to believe, based on the course of things so far and based on Manaus, unless vaccinations and distancing and mask wearing and rapid testing and tracing and all the rest become much more prevalent than predicted.

    People have to understand that we have to do the work – not just get the shot.

    Even at 95% effectiveness for the best vaccines, when half-a-million+ are being infected world-wide, that’s a lot of new infections and hospitalizations and deaths, and opportunity for virus mutations, for a long time…

    :-(

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  70. 70.

    Sloane Ranger

    @J R in WV:

     

    Do they not count people who take longer than 28 days to die, then?

    Seems like that will distort the death statistics somewhat to me.

    They used to count everyone who died after a positive test but certain newspapers discovered a handful of people who had died from other causes months after they had recovered from COVID-19. There was outrage on the Tory backbenches and their media supporters that the UK death figures were being inflated and making the government look bad. After debate with their scientific experts they settled on 28 days as a cut off point on the basis that most people who die will do so within that time.

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