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You are here: Home / Open Threads / 2024 Open Thread: Primary Considerations

2024 Open Thread: Primary Considerations

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Nope, sorry, not Too Soon:

… The Democratic-controlled Nevada Legislature took a step closer toward that goal this week, introducing a bill that would eliminate the state’s caucus process and replace it with a primary to be held in late January of presidential election years. The bill is likely to sail to approval and be signed by Gov. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat. But the Democratic National Committee will determine whether Iowa (which holds caucuses), New Hampshire (which holds primaries) or Nevada goes first (or another state!) — a decision that is not likely to come for another year and will surely need the approval of President Biden, who lost Nevada to Senator Bernie Sanders in 2020.

The Times recently spoke by phone to Mr. Reid about his desire to change the calendar and make Nevada the first in the nation to vote in the presidential election. The interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.

Let’s start with the basic question: What is the case for Nevada going first?

Well, if you look at Iowa and New Hampshire and you look at how Joe Biden did in those two states — he took fourth and fifth in those two states. Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the country. There’s no diversity. So it’s unfair, in my opinion, to have those as the first two primary states because it really gives the wrong impression of what the country is all about.

I’m also convinced the caucus system is as close to worthless as anything can be. Caucuses are unfair. The Democratic Party should get rid of all of them. They’re just not fair…

Do you have any commitments from Democratic officials outside of Nevada or are you trying to get them?

Well, I’ve talked to Tom Perez lots of times when he was chairman, so he knows how I feel. But I have no commitments, that’s not anything that I’ve done. I’m just trying to spark a dialogue that I think is really important now rather than last minute…

Can you speak a bit about what difference it makes in general for who goes first? Like if you’re somebody who’s not paying attention to politics in January of an election year, why should you care who goes first?

I believe that it focuses attention on the election that’s upcoming. And I think it’s important that those states represent what’s happening within the Democratic Party around the country…

Both Harry Reid and (I presume) Chuck Grassley are well aware that they may not be around in 2024, but Reid hasn’t reduced himself to a placeholder for ambitious staffers:

Argument against keeping Iowa in the pole position (although that’s probably not what Scholten had in mind):

Another proposal, from a New Hampshirite (IMO, all caucuses are inherently anti-democratic, but… )

Reader Interactions

62Comments

  1. 1.

    trollhattan

    I will be hugely pleased to never ponder Iowa or NH caucus/primaries ever again, as will my NH brother. They’re sideshows to sideshows.​
     
    Also Frist ?

  4. 4.

    Suzanne

    Rotate the states in groups. Damn, maybe even make it random.

    It’s amazing how people who live in upstate New York or the Central Valley of CA never get to see any presidential candidates, while everyone acts like a bunch of dickholes in Iowa have Really Important Viewpoints.

  6. 6.

    NotMax

    Does the Nevada State Fair feature a giant butter sculpture of a slot machine for prospective candidates to pose next to?

    //

  7. 7.

    df

    Jesus, just make every state a primary state and have them all on the same day. You know, like a sane, normal country.

  8. 8.

    Carlo

    What a crock.

    Here’s a modest proposal: A single primary day in which all 50 states vote. No more special-snowflake treatment, no more gladhanding with farmers in diners, or special pandering to irrelevant industries. Fuck those guys. Fuck the 6 month drama. Get it over with, then spend the rest of the time building up the main campaign. The way we do it now is cranio-rectally impacted no matter who goes first.

  9. 9.

    Benw

    @Suzanne: it would be very satisfying to have candidates, after they’ve left the Midwest diners, have to talk to Americans in NYC bodegas, Chicago pizzerias, and LA taquerias. Not sure if that’s how we get the most electable candidate, but those are my people, too

  10. 10.

    joel hanes

    I am an Iowegian, born and bred.

    (Just finished spending) four months in the Beautiful Land, helping my elderly mother deal with fall and winter during a pandemic.

    And I tell you that Iowa should never be allowed to go first again.   Not second either.

    And the Iowa Dems should abandon the caucus process.

  11. 11.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Cornpone T Leghorn went to Vanderbilt, Duke (Law) and Magdalen College, Oxford. I wonder where he learned to play horseshoe

    Andrew Solender @AndrewSolender 7h
    GOP Sen. John Kennedy calls Haaland a “neo-socialist left-of-Lenin whackjob,” per Hill pool. On Tanden, he says, “I’m not saying she’s a smoked turkey, but the smoker is heating up.”

    Kennedy says there is “concern by both Republicans Democrats” that Tanden’s “allegiance is not to America and it’s not to President Biden, it’s to Secretary Clinton.”

  14. 14.

    Suzanne

    @Benw: When I lived in AZ, I got to see candidates with some frequency, like maybe one or two per cycle, and I had to make a significant effort to make that happen. Then I see places like the fucken Iowa State Fair and how they’re all there while everyone is just strolling around eating goddamn deep-fried Twinkies or some shit and I get SO ANNOYED. Most of the country never gets to even see one of them with any convenience.

  16. 16.

    NotMax

    @Carlo

    Terrible concept on many levels, which have been masticated to death here many times previously. Not the least of which is the increase of the prospect of a brokered convention when there is no clear victor on a single national primary day.

  17. 17.

    Winston

    I thought primaries are a province of political parties, right. There is nothing in State or Federal law that regulates them?

  19. 19.

    dmsilev

    On the other hand, Joe Biden did prove that Iowa and New Hampshire don’t have to matter, even if they do continue to hog the first spots. They are both small states with a tiny number of delegates, so from a numbers point they’re not much, it’s more about how seriously the political media take them (and takes themselves). You just need a way around the DC media.

  20. 20.

    joel hanes

    @Suzanne: 

    I found that the favored taqueria was extremely happy to do curbside, where we ordered ahead and parked in front and they brought it out to us.
    And they were even happier to do it the second time after I grossly overtipped the first time.

  22. 22.

    cain

    @Suzanne:

    Us, Oregonians – I don’t think we’ve had a presidential candidate since Obama come here and we gave him by far the largest crowd out there – 80k showed up. It was fantastic.

    Sick of seeing everyone hanging around Iowa – time to get other states like Virginia. Hey I won’t even put up Oregon since I don’t think it is any better than Iowa – but we do care about diversity here.

  24. 24.

    NotMax

    @Carlo

    Could not disagree more but at the same time am not about to rehash the same reasons to reject it outright which have been presented here by others so often before.

  25. 25.

    Kent

    I like the primary road show. It really lets us see the candidates in action for a much longer period of time than would be the case with one national primary.

    I just think it is way past time to start with Iowa and New Hampshire. Much much better states would be (in no particular order)

    Nevada
    New Mexico
    South Carolina
    North Carolina
    Some upper midwest state (Wisconsin, Michigan, PA etc.)
    Georgia

    Anyplace with much larger Hispanic and Black populations. Some SW State like New Mexico will give you your Hispanic and native vote.

    Some southern state like South Carolina or Georgia will give you your black vote.

    I wanna see the press corps interviewing the Abuelas in the comedors of south Albuquerque over green chile stew and enchiladas to figure out what their concerns are. As well as the Black BBQ joints and hair salons of the black parts of Georgia. That sort of thing.

    Fuck Iowa, which is turning bright red anyway. At least New Hampshire is a blue state, but not very blue frankly.

  26. 26.

    dm

    @joel hanes: Another Iowanderer chimes in to agree on both Iowa not being first and in getting rid of the caucuses.

    I used to think that the advantage of a small caucus state was that it allowed little-known candidates (like, say, Barack Obama in 2008) to get taken seriously (I still kind-of think that).

    But they privilege the privileged who have time to sit in a cold school auditorium for a few hours.

    Nevada is actually pretty representative of the rest of the country in terms of demographics.

  27. 27.

    Kent

    @cain: Oregon is one bright blue big city in a sea of red.  Hell, even Peter DeFazio damn near got his ass beat by a GOP newcomer down in Eugene.

    If you want to pick a more representative Pacific Northwest city to start the primary season, frankly WA would be better.  It’s a more diverse state with more than just one big city.

  29. 29.

    Redshift

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Kennedy says there is “concern by both Republicans and Democrats” that Tanden’s “allegiance is not to America and it’s not to President Biden, it’s to Secretary Clinton.” 

    Name one of those Democrats, asshole. Democrats aren’t the ones professing allegiance to cult figures, no matter how often Fox brays about it, that’s your side.

  30. 30.

    Nelle

    @joel hanes: I just moved to Iowa in time for the last caucus round.  I thoroughly enjoyed it.  My conclusion?  Despite personal enjoyment, drop the caucus for a primary and rotate which states go first.  This is ridiculous.   (I’ve also lived in a country where campaigning cannot begin more than six weeks before the election. Such sanity would never fly here.)

  32. 32.

    Kent

    @NotMax: Ha!

    The problem or issue with Nevada is that it is basically two cities surrounded by not much but desert.  I looked it up in Wikipedia and the largest city in Nevada that isn’t part of the Vegas or Reno metro areas is Elko, which is about 20,000 people.   After that we are talking a few small towns in the under 10,000 range.  So basically a Nevada primary would be a Vegas and Reno show.  There isn’t anywhere else to go.  That would probably make it easier to campaign.  But it would also make things more intense.

  34. 34.

    Redshift

    @Winston:

    I thought primaries are a province of political parties, right. There is nothing in State or Federal law that regulates them?

    It’s a weird hybrid. Primaries are for a party, but they’re run by the state, and are governed by state law, including setting the date, requirements to be in the ballot, etc.

  37. 37.

    WaterGirl

    I listened to the Lawfare podcast last night that they called the Merick Garland hearings “with no bull”.  They cut out the grandstanding and just include the questions and answers.

    I was very pleased and much relieved to hear Garland refer multiple times to the multiple tools for going after changes that are intended to make it harder or result in making it harder for people to vote, particularly communities of color.

  38. 38.

    Another Scott

    I don’t have any answers, but the last two-three cycles have taught us a few things.

    1. Relative unknowns (Obama, St. Bernard) could raise enough money to be competitive in a contest that lasts a few months.
    2. IA and NH aren’t the knockout punch they used to be (if they ever were).
    3. Caucuses are horrible and stupid and undemocratic and easily manipulated by fringe candidates and need to go.
    4. We need to be able to see how candidates evolve over time.  Single day national primaries are a bad idea.

    Also too, the problem I see with regional primaries is – Who goes first?  If someone wants to run in 2028 they’re going to fight to have their home turf be early.  Who is going to come up with something that is somehow fair?  Why would say California let some committee headed by someone from say Texas decide when they had their primary?

    A lot of the bad things about drawn-out campaigns could be mitigated by public financing.  But what to do about the bazillionaires as long as SCOTUS says that “money == speech”?

    Some sort of ranked-choice voting system makes a lot of sense to prevent monsters who don’t get close to a majority from winning.

    I expect we’ll muddle through with minor changes in the next few cycles.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  40. 40.

    Winston

    Comity may be impossible  

    Bad blood reached a new level Tuesday night when Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) took the highly unusual step of forcing a full floor vote on an uncontroversial bill to name a Mississippi post office because it was authored by a Republican who voted to overturn the election.

    It was equally evident during a Postal Service hearing on Wednesday as a furious Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) lashed out at a top Trump ally, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who had accused Democrats of attacking Postmaster General Louis DeJoy last year simply to damage Trump’s reelection chances.

    “It was all a charade!” Jordan said.

    “I didn’t vote to overturn an election. And I will not be lectured by people who did, about partisanship,” Connolly shot back, jabbing his finger at Jordan.

    Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday lashed out at House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for giving “aid and comfort” to the insurrectionists.

  41. 41.

    Lige

    @Kent: that’s the West in general – if you want a bunch of voters living cheek by jowl with one biggish city you could go with NC or Iowa come to think about it!

  42. 42.

    piratedan

    i kind of like the idea of a primary system that is randomized as follows:

    15 weeks (so roughly four months)

    week 1, 5 states picked at random

    week 2, no primaries/debate

    week 3, 5 more

    week 4, 5 more

    week 5, debate week

    week 6, 5 more

    week 7, no primaries/debate

    week 8, 5 more

    week 9, debate week

    week 10, no primaries

    week 11, 10 states

    week 12, 5 states

    week 13, no primaries/debate

    week 14, 5 states

    week 15, 5 states

    just make the order of the primaries like a lottery, do it 2-3 months in advance so everyone knows the order in time to organize, but this way, it eliminates the bias in the system.  Granted, you could also get a draw where California, Texas, Florida and New York in the first group or you can even do a weighted draw like FIFA does to weight certain states to be kept from being in the same week.

  43. 43.

    Carlo

    Frankly, the candidate selection process worked better when it was up to party bosses in smoke-filled rooms. “The people” are basically incompetent at this part, and their prejudices add no value to the process. The less say they get, the better. They can do their damage in November.

  45. 45.

    Kent

    @Lige: North Carolina has 16 metro areas with population over 100,000.   Iowa has five (if you include the border cities).   Nevada has two.

  47. 47.

    CaseyL

    @Winston: I’m glad to see the Democrats aren’t willing to “look forward, not back,” and keep reminding the GQP that they’re anti-democratic (small d) at best, and that more than half of them are insurrectionists/insurrection sympathizers.

    But fighting over renaming a post office was petty,  Save the ammo for the important stuff.

  48. 48.

    Winston

    @CaseyL: Fighting over the post office was just rage against insurrectionists, and indicative that our guys in the house are not going to let this slide. Which I am very much in support of. I would like to see dems institute a resolution that Republicans have to visit the nearest Sunoco station to take a piss. Decorum is lost when your side decides to declare war on the USA.

  50. 50.

    Carlo

    @WaterGirl: Probably not, but they might have selected him in 2012 or 2016, if he’d taken the trouble to be a senator for more than 5 minutes, possibly even accomplished something, and maybe even learned to be a competent politician — which, despite having voted for him twice (plus voting for him in his Senate run in Illinois), I have always been persuaded he was not.

  51. 51.

    cain

    @Kent:

    I wanna see the press corps interviewing the Abuelas in the comedors of south Albuquerque over green chile stew and enchiladas to figure out what their concerns are. As well as the Black BBQ joints and hair salons of the black parts of Georgia. That sort of thing.

    Well shit, now I gotta fire up things up and make some southwest chile stew – I got me a few lbs of hatch chile from Denver last year. I plan on making at least one trip in September a year to Denver so I can see the Aspens turn, and hang out with my ex-girlfriend and other friends.

  52. 52.

    cain

    @Kent:

    If you want to pick a more representative Pacific Northwest city to start the primary season, frankly WA would be better.  It’s a more diverse state with more than just one big city

    Sure that makes sense.. but we are sooo close in getting super majorities.. even though Peter almost got his ass kicked and that too from a hero marine – he still managed to save his seat.

    I don’t really care, but I would like to see our part of the country be represented instead of towards the end where nobody gives a shit..  I’d like candidates to come out here – meet the people outside of Portland.

  53. 53.

    cain

    @Winston:

    I’m all for bad blood – let it fester – fuck these people. They make us all unsafe – they are out to kill us.

    Also OMG! 3 posts in a row – that means something right? TELL ME IT MEANS SOMETHING!!!

  55. 55.

    mrmoshpotato

    @cain:

    Also OMG! 3 posts in a row – that means something right? TELL ME IT MEANS SOMETHING!!! 

    You had a hankering for some replying?

  56. 56.

    Ascap_scab

    Iowa should be removed from consideration for lack of diversity and the way they completely hosed their last caucus. They didn’t have vote totals until after Nevada and completely screwed Beto.

    New Hampshire in February is stupid and always has been. Again with the lack of diversity, they should be tossed aside.

    I’m fine with Nevada, but would rather it be Arizona to better deal with border, trade, water, western land use, native and immigration issues.

    I’m also fine with South Carolina, though moving to Virginia might make sense after hearing my next choices.

    Rounding out the first four, I’d like to see Michigan in the north and either Mississippi or Alabama in the south. Wait, what? Those are hopelessly red states. Well, they always will be unless we compete there. How better to address the failures of Republican run states than to discuss the poverty and hopelessness and how Dems want to lift all boats rather than divide and scapegoat.

    Finally, push all of it back at least a month so the first contest isn’t until March 1st.

  60. 60.

    AxelFoley

    @Carlo:

    @WaterGirl: Probably not, but they might have selected him in 2012 or 2016, if he’d taken the trouble to be a senator for more than 5 minutes, possibly even accomplished something, and maybe even learned to be a competent politician — which, despite having voted for him twice (plus voting for him in his Senate run in Illinois), I have always been persuaded he was not.

    Oh, fuck off.  Fuck the fuck off, clown.

  61. 61.

    There go two miscreants

    @Ascap_scab: …either Mississippi or Alabama in the south. Wait, what? Those are hopelessly red states. Well, they always will be unless we compete there. How better to address the failures of Republican run states than to discuss the poverty and hopelessness and how Dems want to lift all boats rather than divide and scapegoat.

    Just catching up this morning, but I like this idea and agree with your reasoning.

    Also, my luck is good, Visual tab worked!

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