I think this is a mistake:
President Biden has decided that the diplomatic cost of directly penalizing Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, is too high, according to senior administration officials, despite a detailed American intelligence finding that he directly approved the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, the dissident and Washington Post columnist who was drugged and dismembered in October 2018.
The decision by Mr. Biden, who during the 2020 campaign called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state with “no redeeming social value,” came after weeks of debate in which his newly formed national security team advised him that there was no way to formally bar the heir to the Saudi crown from entering the United States, or to weigh criminal charges against him, without breaching the relationship with one of America’s key Arab allies.
Officials said a consensus developed inside the White House that the cost of that breach, in Saudi cooperation on counterterrorism and in confronting Iran, was simply too high.
Obviously releasing the report fingering MBS is better than what his predecessor did, which ranged from aiding and abetting to actively helping the coverup, but this is still a mistake on Team Biden. It strikes me that not punishing MBS for this because you don’t want to damage relations is like not wanting to confront your spouse for cheating on you because you don’t want to damage your marriage. Bro- that ship done sailed.
I’m sure there are smarter people than me with opinions on it, but if a nation won’t assist you on counter-terrorism ops because you caught them committing terrorism on your own soil, maybe, just maybe, that nation might be part of the problem and, you know, terrorists.
cain
I must agree with you. There is a lot of complaints on these internets – and then others who think there is some 3D chess going on. I think it is a mistake, but he’s still way better than that orange guy before him.
ETA – well shit.. maybe I should have timed it better to get #2. See it’s hard to get #2! Now i”m #1 – not pleased.
Niques
I read somewhere that Biden had gone directly to the king, essentially saying he refused to deal directly with his idiot son, and that the king needed to handle it.
Jeffro
Fuck it (for now). Ban MBS from ever coming into the U.S., and then make sure the whole world knows that trumpov, Kushner, and Pompeo knew it was coming and did nothing.
guachi
You’ve put it better than I could.
Biden’s actions makes the US look like the weaker, junior partner in this relationship. Tell SA we won’t protect them from Iran as long as MBS is around and I’d bet SA would figure out a way to remove MBS as Crown Prince.
dr. bloor
Fair enough, but any divorce lawyer will tell you that the most obvious, and in some cases justified, response is not in your best interests over the course of the divorce proceedings. We don’t know a lot more than we know in regard to the course the administration might be trying to chart here.
trollhattan
Seems like a good opportunity to work with Turkey and bring some level of pain on the murderous jerk, but what do I know.
Silverman? This is kinda your beat. What say you?
Wapiti
@Jeffro: And block him from financial transactions in the US, just like you would with a Russian kleptocrat.
cain
@dr. bloor:
I think though – it does seem like a weak stand. What exactly is SA gonna go if we ban the king’s idiot son from coming to the U.S.? The SA wants the U.S. help to start their little war against their neighbors and spread their batshit offshoot of Islam.
I mean we don’t even need them for the oil.. so..
cain
@Jeffro:
Yes! Ban MBS and MBA’s while we are at it.
Emma from FL
@guachi: Bullshit. There is bloody well nothing of substance that can be done to a Saudi Crown Prince. Jesus, the bin Ladens, that aren’t even at that level were ushered out of the US by the US government so they could avoid any political repercussions.
International politics is an ugly game. Live with it.
(added) and as Baud says below, we don’t have any way of filing criminal charges.
Baud
What possible criminal charges could we have brought? All the actors and the crime were foreign.
Cameron
Forget it, Jake – it’s the Middle East. Can anybody here coax Dr. Silverman into giving us an analysis?
Mousebumples
I read somewhere that there is a statement on Saudi Arabia coming Monday. I agree this is bad on its face, but I’m willing to wait 2 more days (after years) for more info and context.
Agree that the Cliff Notes summaries I’ve seen don’t sound great though.
Cameron
@trollhattan: Actually, the Turks are kinda busy at the moment trying to slurp up pieces of Syria and massacring Kurds to be much help.
Chief Oshkosh
Since we don’t really need SA oil, I guess the only thing we care about , at all, is that we don’t want China to get it. Is that right? Otherwise, why the fuck should I care about the creepy little shitstain son of an asshole king somewhere far away from here? In 2021, what does the House of Saud have on offer? I am genuinely asking — I have no idea.
DCA
I have the same visceral reaction, but hope that there is more going on than this: it is kind of a “we are prepared to do stuff you won’t like” statement, useful for backroom bargaining–eg, to stop the war in Yemen. Morally, that would much more than make up for giving MBS a pass.
Baud
@Chief Oshkosh:
Oil is oil. Saudi oil affects the market price for oil regardless of whether we buy it.
CaseyL
Saying we need Saudi help against Iran, in view of everything S.A. has done – not limited to the crown price by any means – makes me wonder why we’re allied with Saudi Arabia in the first place, and not with Iran. They’re both dreadful places, but Iran strikes me as considerably less dreadful than SA.
dr. bloor
@cain:
Oh, nowhere. But what’s weaker: declining to ban MBS from entry into the United States, or banning his entry and drawing attention to the fact that KSA doesn’t give a shit one way or the other?
I’d be surprised if Salman actually had the sand and power to name another successor to the throne at this point, but the admin strategy seems to reflect a Biden admin’s conclusion that it’s there best shot given the circumstances.
dr. bloor
@Baud: And would anyone like to take a guess as to which world currency KSA uses to price their oil?
?BillinGlendaleCA
Wasn’t the murder committed in Turkey?
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Which reminds me, I wonder what’s on Pornhub tonight.
Chetan Murthy
Since the day when FDR sat on that destroyer with Ibn Saud [IIRC], the goal hasn’t just been to secure Saudi oil for -us-, but for the West. And to keep out Russia. If we told KSA to fuck off, they’d just call up Vladi. And that’d be a problem.
When we get the West weaned off Saudi (and Mideast) oil (South Korea gets 69% of its oil from the MIdeast), we can tell him to fuck off. And yeah, we can start by weaning ourselves off of oil, too.
Baud
@dr. bloor:
That too. Although as a practical matter, it’s either dollars or Euros for them.
Has Europe done anything to MBS?
Just Some Fuckhead
Wasn’t the first time. 19 Saudi nationals flew planes into our buildings.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@CaseyL:
Israel.
Cameron
There appears to be some doubt over who actually runs KSA. Here’s a blast from the relatively recent past: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/world/middleeast/saudi-royal-arrest.html. Spoiler: it ain’t the king.
dimmsdale
Last night Heather Cox Richardson wrote:
So that’s not exactly “nothing,” but MBS also has one of the more punchable smirky-faces on the planet and I was hoping for a figurative stiff uppercut either from Biden or from State. I don’t exactly know what sort of hold the king has over American geopolitical fortunes in the region; I would love it if we were somehow (entirely out of public view) able to teach MBS a lesson about consequences.
Brachiator
Time and Newsweek report that a massive humanitarian crisis is happening in Yemen, where the Saudis are kicking the shit out of the people.
They also report that Biden is seeking, and may be getting, getting some signals from the Saudis that may alleviate the human suffering there.
Last week from Forbes:
Is it worth it to try to appeal to the Saudis to relent?
Jeffro
@Wapiti: yes, this too!
Cameron
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: A voice of sanity!
Amir Khalid
@Chief Oshkosh:
It’s not just about minimising China’s access to Saudi oil. Like it or not, Saudi Arabia is a big deal in the Muslim world, where it enjoys a great deal of prestige because the holy city of Makkah is on Saudi soil. So any US administration needs at least semi-amicable relations with them to be able to work with much of the Muslim world. Antagonism towards the house of Saud can be all too easily painted, by Saudi Arabia, as antagonism towards Muslims/the Muslim world in general.
Chief Oshkosh
@Baud: Then, even more reason to say: What the fuck do I care which family of despots rules over that oil? As long as they know I’m willing to take out the king’s son, as I just did with MBS, then we’re all going to get along swell.
If we’re going to practice “realpolitik” then WTF, may as well go all in.
Not saying we should do that, I’m just not seeing the upside (yet) of playing nice with any one despotic family of turds.
dr. bloor
@Chief Oshkosh:
Read the comment from Amir immediately above yours. That’s where to start rather, rather than reducing it to some sort of simplistic “who gets the oil” dilemma and start raising the merits of refraining from assassinating foreign heads of state.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Amir Khalid: thank you for that perspective, it seems obvious now that you say it, but it honestly hadn’t occurred to me. Much more complicated than “oil and Israel”, which was my first reaction.
debbie
@cain:
Biden put sanctions on 70-some Saudi officials. That’s not a little thing.
Chief Oshkosh
@Chetan Murthy: Well, again, another argument for offing MBS. As a warning that if we’d do that over the murder of a journalist, imagine what we’d do if the family-of-the-day started playing nice with Putin.
Again, I am not advocating this, I’m asking: If we’re only behaving the way we behave to “deal with reality,” then why not avoid the deaths of innocents, off the asshole that deserves it, and make very clear that we are, indeed, just dealing with reality.
Mo Salad
OT for Amir – If LFC had a chance for Haaland or Mbappe, but needed to send Salah as a make-weight to reduce or eliminate the transfer fee, do you do it?
Chetan Murthy
@Chief Oshkosh:
Even besides what Amir wrote, I feel it might be relevant to note that we did shit like this once, and it didn’t work out so well. Military intervention hasn’t exactly been something of a unalloyed win these last … what? 70 years? I mean, since WWII, we’ve had one war that was a “win”: the Korean War. Every other instance that I can think of, where we flexed our military muscle (either overtly or covertly) it’s turned out to be massive blowback.
There’s a lesson there. Better to spend that energy and money on getting offa oil.
Baud
@Chetan Murthy:
Reagan successfully saved Grenada.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@dimmsdale:
That’s a far cry from how the Purity Left Brigade on Twitter and Tumblr have been portraying it, referencing it as if it was some kind of war crime and betrayal
Chief Oshkosh
And I appreciate everyone’s patience here.
NotMax
There are situations when the least worst option is to play the long game.
dr. bloor
@Chief Oshkosh:
This makes two posts in which you’ve not advocated it. You should probably stop now, lest anyone at BJ begin to wonder whether Jon Bolton is posting here.
Chetan Murthy
@Baud: And Bush saved Panama!
LevelB
Feels like access journalism to me: give me the juicy inside gossip and I will cover your ass. Poor analogy (maybe there is not a good one), but I don’t like this.
Chief Oshkosh
@dr. bloor: Just trying to get you to develop your arguments.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
Isn’t that mostly because we backed authoritarian regimes
Definitely.
Chief Oshkosh
@Chetan Murthy:
Absolutely agreed. But I keep being told that I have to give a shit about a despot somewhere. We already don’t need their oil. But then I’m told that if we need ANY oil, we have to put up with the despot because HIS oil is part of ALL the oil, and…and…and…
Chetan Murthy
@Baud: I for one think another Mossadegh situation [viz. an assassination] would be *optimal* for American foreign policy goals.
Cameron
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Agree. Problem is, in 2021 there’s no reason for US troops in Iraq, and US troops in Syria were never there legally. I don’t knock Biden for responding, but it’s high time we get the hell out of there.
Cameron
@Chetan Murthy: So we need a new Shah? Don’t give Trump’s handlers any more ideas….
Amir Khalid
@Mo Salad:I’d see if Dortmund/PSG would take Divock or Shaqiri instead.
Chetan Murthy
@Chief Oshkosh: Oil is a fungible commodity. Do you plan on instituting export controls? Because with out them, if the oil price skyrockets in … Asia, American oil companies will start exporting American oil. That’s what “fungible” means.
I mean, far be it from me to go rah-rah for capitalism, but ….. it -is- the system what brung us to the dance, yanno. These are the realities. And also, EVEN IF the fungibility of oil weren’t an issue, how long do you think our allies in Europe and East Asia would stick by us, if we let them twist in the wind?
Maybe you’d say that America doesn’t need to be a global hegemon. Let’s suppose I even agree with you. The fact is, that that position is beyond the pale of reasonable discourse in America today. To arrive at a reasonable policy, you have to at least start with “American hegemony is in managed decline”. That’s the furthest anybody “reasonable” will go.
Chief Oshkosh
@Chetan Murthy: Well, if you want to argue that MBS = Mossadegh, I’m really going to need ME for Dummies delivered to my Audible account.
Chetan Murthy
@Cameron: Oh man, I was hopin’ I could pull it off, but I guess not. In the words of the inimitable Foghorn Leghorn, “It was a joke, son! A joke!”
Gravenstone
Other than it being an outright act of war, you mean? But you do you, chucklefuck.
CaseyL
@Amir Khalid:
Good point – but I thought the Muslim world actually didn’t like the House of Saud, for precisely that reason: The Saudi royal family has been willing to essentially hold those holy sites hostage. I.e., “Support the House of Saud in all of its endeavors, or we won’t let pilgrims in.”
Gvg
MBS is ruthless we know. I have been wondering the king is able to control him of if it’s the other way around now. If the king tried to name another successor I would predict MBS tries to kill the king. I have no expertise, just read a lot of dynastic histories when the kingship has power.
BellyCat
Agreed, Cole. The bigger the bank, the easier the crime.
Smacks of hypocrisy and compromises Biden’s message. Even *modest* sanctions would have helped.
Cameron
@Chetan Murthy: “Ah say, sir! Ah say!”
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
Saw Argo again a few nights ago and it reminded me again why Iran had good reason to be angry with the US (overthrowing their democratically elected leader and installing the Shah). And I know that Iran is a theocratic Muslim state, so different, but not really better than Saudi Arabia in many ways (especially how they treat women). But one thing they are not, and that is Arabs. Iran is Persia. I’m sure it is much too complicated for me, but I personally have sympathy for Iran, and to hell with Saudi Arabia
ETA: and a lot that goes on in the Middle East has nothing to do with us.
laura
I’m deeply disappointed that there wasn’t a robust statement by anyone about the role of investigative journalists. So many have been murdered all over the world in reporting on government corruption – which proves the case for the need for more of that. What protections or acknowledgements are offered in consideration of the bone saw free pass? It’s got to be a cold and lonely couple of days for journalists
And what A Woman From Anywhere said.
Cameron
@Gravenstone: Well, hell, Trump took out an Iranian general just to show Merka could spank the wogs with impunity. Is Biden not enough of a real Merkin to do that?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Chetan Murthy:
The Korean War is ongoing, there was a truce.
Chief Oshkosh
@Gravenstone: Just asking for clarification of a bunch of hypotheticals on the 10,000th most important blog in this dimension. Questions, btw, that arise from the earnest original post of the originator of the blog.
Lighten up Francis. Do you really think anything that gets noodled about here matters a whit beyond the next front pager’s post? Get over yourself. It’s Saturday night and we’re not that important
And in case you can’t figure it out yet, my fundamental point is that “realpolitik” has always been bullshit and an excuse. So far, a lot of you are still arguing FOR it. I’m just asking (apparently) uncomfortable questions about where that stance might take you.
Mary G
MBS is Kushner with a lot more money, but basically he was born with a 15-foot lead from third base and thinks he hit a home run. I was writing letters in 2015 bitching at Obama for helping him with refueling planes and selling arms. All the big relief players have been screaming for years about the ongoing humanitarian disaster. I mentioned in here once and Adam linked to an article about the Saudis secretly giving Nixon a boost during the OPEC crisis by buying billions of dollars in T-bills that they hold to this date, so we’re being blackmailed with threats to dump them. Still seems like bullshit. Where else can they safely stash it?
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: And we aren’t a member of the ICC.
Another Scott
@Mousebumples:
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Amir Khalid
@CaseyL:
There’s a limit to how much Saudi Arabia can play that card. As much as they hate Iran and Shi’ites, they have not dared forbid Shi’ite Haj pilgrims from there or anywhere else. It would hurt their credibility as custodians of Islam’s most sacred sites.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
Honestly? I’m inclined to think if it wasn’t us it would just be somebody else much worse, like the PRC or Russia. I think China has only been as restrained as it has been because the US and NATO stand in their way.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chief Oshkosh: Just asking questions… It was a joke… Why does that sound familiar?
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@laura: thank you!
Ruckus
I know that it is a lot more complex than first glance would suggest.
I know that it is better US politics that we come down very strong on this issue.
I know that there are issues that we have “corrected” by military action, open or not that have made the world a less safe place, while at the same time there are issues that we haven’t done anything about.
I know that this issue is not as cut and dried as we would like to make it, even though we know what we’d like to see happen.
I know that President Biden has a lot more information, a lot more assistance in thinking about this issue than any of us here.
I know that President Biden has already shown that he thinks MBS should pay, and pay a high personal price for this act.
I know that I’m going to give President Biden the benefit of the doubt and not try to second guess him. We hired him as our leader, we give him tremendous power to make these types of decisions and it seems unlike him to just punt on first down. So my opinion is to follow his lead. Sometimes you hit the jackpot and some times you crap out.
Cameron
@Amir Khalid: Of course, the Shia minority in SA (and majority in Bahrain) are SOL. But it’s true, the Saudis can’t mess with Hajj too much. Y’all want to be the keeper, you better welcome the faithful.
Mike in NC
To even begin to figure out the extremely corrupt Saudi regime, you have to watch “The Kingdom” with Jamie Foxx and Jason Bateman.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples:
@Another Scott:
Oh wait, are people going off half-cocked again? I am shocked.
Starfish
@Baud: We banned people from traveling to the US. Was the Crown Prince among the people we banned or not? We could seize assets in the US. We can sanction, but they can raise the price of oil so that wouldn’t work out.
MagdaInBlack
@Ruckus: I have to tell you I always look forward to your posts, because you cut right to the point and ( of course) because I so often agree with you. Like this time.
Martin
So, I’m not yet worked up over this.
I’m hinging on two things:
feebog
@Mary G:
Kushner is a dweeb born into a wealthy family. He is a minor league crook dabbling in real estate and bank fraud. MBS on the other hand is a stone cold killer who would slit your throat for a buck fifty. I agree wholeheartedly with John, major fuckup on part of the Biden administration.
laura
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): I’m always grateful when someone reminds us of the original sin – the overturning of a free and fair election.
And I cannot stress this enough – fuck that fucking gormless wax faced sociopath Jared Kushner.
Martin
@Chief Oshkosh: We don’t care about China getting it – or anyone else.
There are 3 things we are worried about:
It doesn’t benefit anyone to have more Venezuelas around the world.
sdhays
@Chetan Murthy: And Vietnam turned out ok.
Of course, that’s despite our despicable, ugly, flailing, and ultimately unsuccessful war there.
Regine Touchon
@Just Some Fuckhead: exactly
Kent
Well now…let’s not forget Grenada!
BTW, the Korean War was far from a win.
The Pale Scot
@guachi:
Iran isn’t a direct threat to SA. If SA stopped committing war crimes in Yemen and supporting wahabi terrorism against Shiites in Iraq the Iranians would step back. almost all of the ME problems stem from SA royalty exporting fundie nut jobs out of the country to prevent them from destabilizing SA
Amir Khalid
@sdhays:
I hear that in Vietnam they call it the American war.
sdhays
@Amir Khalid: Seems fair.
The Pale Scot
@Chief Oshkosh:
Well we need SA and the Gulf nations to keep pricing their oil in dollars. The world doesn’t need to buy dollars to buy oil, big fucking deal
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Kent:
Heck, it’s still technically going on! It started as a UN peacekeeping mission, didn’t it?
Chief Oshkosh
@Kent:
FWIW, many of the people I work with from China feel that it was a win…for China.
Kent
The problem I think facing the Biden Administration, is that there probably isn’t anyone better within 100-miles of the Saudi monarchy. I expect every damn last one of them are utterly corrupt and amoral. Any progressive social-reformer type prince who is 10 degrees removed from the line of succession is likely purged and exiled to irrelevance.
I’m not sure what the Biden Administration could actually do to spank MBS other than what the have already done, which is drag his name out in the open and assign him blame. He is in direct line to the throne and basically has the entire resources of the Kingdom at his disposal. How do you sanction that? You really can’t.
What the US actually needs to do is start distancing itself from Saudi Arabia no matter who there is in charge. For a whole lot of bigger reasons than this one killing of a journalist.
catclub
@guachi:
Wouldn’t they just hire the Israelis for protection.
catclub
@Kent:
Now that makes sense. SA, israel and Turkey are in running for ‘least helpful ally’ of the US. Turkey is still in NATO.
Cameron
@catclub: Except the Israelis want us to do the fighting.
Chief Oshkosh
@Martin: Thanks.
HalfAssedHomesteader
I don’t like it but my understanding is all the actors who were part of Kashogi’s murder (barring MBS) are barred from the US and their assets have been frozen. It’s not justice but it’s not nothing either. I hope the FBI and NSA are watching every move Kushner and his cronies make.
Just Chuck
@Amir Khalid: An outsize chunk of the Muslim world detests the house of Saud and would welcome if that despotic regime were overthrown. We’re just not jazzed about the regional instability that would follow, which would also involve Russia and China falling over each other to exert their own influence there. But I don’t think we’re under any illusions anymore that we’ll ever earn any actual love from that nest of violent zealot Wahhabist thugs.
Chief Oshkosh
@Ruckus: Sounds good to me.
James E Powell
This is the least naive & stupid administration we have had in a while. I’m certainly curious to know not just why, but why now?
piratedan
@catclub: I think that is a big part of the problem, we’ve done a piss poor job of selecting allies. The realpolitik has us picking dictators instead of pushing for representative governments. We’ve not walked the walk in the ME. It doesn’t help matters that the one ethnic group that didn’t used to hate us with the white hot passion we turned our backs on, the Kurds.
Unsure how to address the Gordian knots of ethnicity and desire in natural resources and finding a way to serve humanitarian and our supposed ideals. Sure am open to discussion on how to reconcile all of that with the buffet of bad choices that currently exist.
cain
These zealots are a threat to just about everyone – especially the Muslim world. To invite these people into your country is to invite disaster. As Pakistan and Afghanistan have found.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Ruckus:
Sounds like a plan to me
Just Chuck
@cain: I guess what I was going for is that we have less of an alliance with SA so much as detente, and even that is showing cracks.
Jim Appleton
Off topic, nor an open thread.
But I could use a break.
A leopard and a Rottweiler are best friends.
https://youtu.be/uiysDz7-oGc
Another Scott
@piratedan: I’m no expert by any means, but I think the main problem is that trust in government and governmental systems takes decades to develop. One can’t expect a dictatorship to be replaced by a functioning democracy to work at the drop of a hat. There has to be trust that local government systems work (rather than being lubricated by graft and corruption), that regional governments aren’t controlled by warlords or oligarchs; that national governments actually work to address national problems, etc.
One of the “benefits” of the 1940s USA being the global hegemon and being willing and able to occupy other nations for decades while imposing new governments on the conquered, is that people can see the value in the new systems. (Yes, that’s a patronizing view that ignores all the bad.)
The USA cannot do that any more. I don’t think that any other nation can do that, either.
So, I don’t know how repressive governments end up being replaced by something substantially better without decades of conflict and hardship. Power is too alluring. Maybe it can be done; I hope so.
Cheers,
Scott.
Just Chuck
@Jim Appleton: After 100 comments, every thread on BJ ends up an open thread.
The Pale Scot
@Starfish:
Not at the moment and not for awhile. SA and Russia have gone thru two rounds of price cutting to retain market share and to drive American frackers out of business. All that’s done is make them all poorer. The frackers have PE investors to payoff and need to show income, any income to stave off defaulting. SA and Russia are dipping into their reserves to pay their bills, at current rates Russia has about two years, SA 5-7. That’s why SA tried an IPO Of Aramco without allowing outside verification of its reserves, and ended up on the Kuwaiti stock market and kidnapping members of the royal family to extort them to buy shares.
All of them need to pump and sell as much as they can to keep the financial instruments they bought to manage their income in payout out flow. The shame is that this is keeping oil cheaper than it should be. As long as Russia and SA are major players, the ability to sanction either just helps the other
Just Chuck
@The Pale Scot: Starting that energy price war on the eve of a global pandemic didn’t help them very much either. The whole business of oil futures actually going negative was … entertaining.
Another Scott
@The Pale Scot: +1
I’m also reminded of some famous chemist saying that oil is much too valuable to burn. It took Nature millions of years to make the stuff. It’s concentrated sunlight. We should be using it for magical materials that cannot easily be made otherwise, not burning it like trash…
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim Appleton
@Just Chuck: Yes.
Did you see the video?
https://youtu.be/uiysDz7-oGc
jl
I think there’s a difference between an abusive spouse and the leader of a country.
Pressure can be put on Saudi Arabia to try to reign in MBS, the country is separate from its leader. So, maybe first, pressure the country to do something about the problematic leader. The abusive spouse is the abusive spouse.
Ruckus
@piratedan:
A lot of the world is effectively run by dictators of one sort or another. We have, over the last 50 yrs, screwed the pooch so much with bluster and guns, and the reality is that we always end up supporting the people that bring the most trade or money into the country, money being the most operative word here. At some point we have to admit we are often the Ugly Americans. Smug, self righteous, pompous, arrogant, and actually not willing to go past halfway. It may not be proper to put all the citizens in this basket, or even most of them, but what I’m talking about is the perception/reality that much of the rest of the world at least thinks they see, because we often present only that side to the rest of the world. We are a democracy, sort of, we have freedom of speech that allows people to propagate lies and bullshit, a political party that encapsulates almost half the electorate that for sure now specializes in only bullshit, overthrow and money grubbing. Oh and utter stupidity. We may not be a joke of a country, but after the last 4 yrs we are close. That same political party selects irrationality above all else, because they can see nothing else.
We’ve been on this road for that 50 yrs and the rich have gotten much richer and the poor have gotten farther behind. We are not a better country, even though we try, because some do not want us to be an actually better country, they like that money coming in. How do we change the path we are on, if we don’t recognize it and work to change it? I don’t know, does anyone? There may be too many potholes on the road we are on to patch. Especially if we can’t get more than 1 or 2 terms in power to effect change. It’s been getting worse my entire life, with every rethuglican president worse than before. I sure don’t know how we make this work with people attempting armed rebellion to put absolute morons in office. At least a third of the country wants nothing to do with democracy, they seem to think that dollars are smarter than people.
zhena gogolia
I’m not interested in criticizing Joe Biden for anything.
The country is threatened by a violent white supremacist movement led by an alive and kicking despot based in Mar-a-Lago.
J R in WV
I haven’t read the whole thread, but IIRC Joe Biden said there would be more news / another announcement Monday.
So maybe it’s a little early to jump on the current administration right now.
On the other hand, I wonder if those billions of $$ worth of war-birds don’t have an off switch in the software somewhere? Wouldn’t that be the nuts, to turn the Saudi Air Force off in mid attack somewhere??!!! Fall like a brick, straight down.
“Nuff said for now, gotta go to bed now. Love you jackals, mostly.
guachi
@Emma from FL: Yes, there is very much something of substance that SA can do to a Crown Prince. Namely, the King can pick someone else as a successor.
And I have no idea what the US not being able to indict MBS has to do with something Saudi Arabia would do to him.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Ruckus:
TBF, that could describe a lot of countries right now. *cough UK! cough
Benw
@Jim Appleton: Damn that’s cute. Also, that’s a mack load of snow. Also, too, how does one end up with a black leopard cub?
randy khan
My take is pretty similar to Cole’s – I am pretty concerned that Biden is’t doing anything about it, but it’s a sea change from the former guy that we’re getting a report on what they found and why they aren’t taking action. I mean, the former guy just knew he wanted the Saudis to like him.
(Why, yes, I’m going with “the former guy.” I like it.)
The Pale Scot
@Another Scott:
If IIRC, before the ICE, gasoline was a waste product, oil was processed for the heavy fractions like asphalt, kerosine and tars for chemical processes and waterproofing. So pumping oil for fuel just makes all those other uses cheaper. It’s just the need for fuel that makes plastics inexpensive.
moonbat
I always marvel at the people who abhor political assassination, invasions, etc. when other countries do it, suddenly jump on the “we should summarily execute that guy” bandwagon when it comes to flexing the USA’s might. There are tools at our diplomats’ disposal other than extradite and execute (and destabilize), I think we need to let them work.
As many, particularly Another Scott and Amir Khalid, have pointed out there are a few more players and consequences here involved than just us feeling righteous about ourselves or the crown prince wouldn’t have carried out this horrific act to begin with. It’s a slow and maybe not as viscerally satisfying outcome to chop this little butcher off at the knees within his own system rather than having a drone drop a bomb, but I think it is worth pursuing.
Jay
Since WWII, BoneSawdi Arabia and the Gulf States have been major consumers of Western Military weapon systems, training and logistical supply systems. They also buy Soviet/Russian, North Korean and Chinese weapons to fill in so called “gaps” that the West won’t sell them.
(Consumers is the correct term, as much of what is sold, rots in the desert).
This has become a subsidy program for Western Militaries, Corporations, and a lucrative post Military Career program for ex-Military.
The Drug dealer has become completely reliant on the junkie.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Well, yes it would be somebody else. And even if that’s *inevitable* at this point, there’s no way the “owners” would allow us to “cut and run”. They would (and do) demand that we fight and retain every last perquisite as long as we possibly can. I know: that’s kinda stupid, but it is what it is.
And also: I’m not sure that we *should* just retreat: I think we should be working with Europe to establish some sort of Western hegemony, b/c I think it’s better than the alternatives.
I remember once a very, very well-read Indian guy [as in: he grew up and went to college in India, before coming to the US] argued that British colonization was the “best” colonization. And he was very well-read, and knew chapter-and-verse on what the Brits did to India. B/c yanno, what the Belgians did to the Congo, what the Brits did to America, what the Portugese did to Brazil (and on and on) was so much worse.
It’s a grim thing, contemplating how things could get worse
ETA: upon re-reading, I see that you’re agreeing with me. Cool.
Chetan Murthy
@Kent:
I meant that only in the sense that, the people of South Korea by and large (from what I understand) prefer the outcome they got (which was the US prevailing on their territory) to the other one. That’s all. I’m well-aware that the stalemate on the Korean Peninsula is horrific. I compare that outcome to Vietnam, Iraq, Af-Pak, and it seems pretty clear that the outcome in South Korea, compared to those others, is a shining example of competence. And that includes the decades of military dictatorship they endured.
It sucks, I know. Just more evidence we need to carefully consider other options, before using military force.
The Pale Scot
@Chetan Murthy:
Four million Irish folk would insist on disagreeing
Cheryl Rofer
Coming late to this and haven’t read all the comments, but moonbat’s at #122 encourages me.
Biden has sanctioned 76 Saudis who are involved in overseas assassinations including Kashoggi’s and others. Lost in all the desire for revenge against MBS personally is that these sanctions address those who are carrying out the crimes directly. It tells other countries to beware of these men.
I am SO TIRED of the idea that we HAVE TO SHOW STRENGTH, usually by killing or levying some extreme punishment on someone. That shows weakness, not strength, although the HAVE TO SHOW STRENGTH idea certainly is lodged close to masculinity in a great many brains.
Perhaps strength is involved in restraining oneself from instant revenge. Perhaps revenge is not the best basis for leadership or international relations.
And analogizing international relations to family relations never works. Never.
This is not the whole game. MBS is clearly the perpetrator. KSA’s royal family must decide what they want to do with that. Biden is withdrawing support for their war against Yemen. The King and his court have a lot to think about.
ETA: This is an excellent consideration of the entire situation.
To be Frank
@?BillinGlendaleCA: lol no, anti-communism. We preferred wealthy kingdoms to wealthy democratic socialist states.
Jay
LeftCoastYankee
I may be mis-remembering, but when Obama sanctioned Russia (I think re: Ukraine) there was a lot of criticism of not “doing something”.Usually the “doing something” translates to “doing something I can see now”. In the long run, Putin was freaked out because it hit him in his wallet.It looks like we’ve targeted the Saudi prince’s friends and minions, and basically weakened his position internally in Saudia Arabia vis a vis being able to influence an important partner for them (i.e. us).It doesn’t seem far-fetched that Biden took the advice of the foreign policy experts in the intelligence and diplomatic communities.
Benw
@Cheryl Rofer: Thanks, this is really smart and my dumb man-brain is really glad you posted it!
Jay
@The Pale Scot:
over 8 million MMIGW would agree with the Irish.
LeftCoastYankee
@Chetan Murthy:
Sweet Jesus. The British Empire is likely the 2nd worst institute in history in terms of inflicting misery to the most people over the longest period of time.
(The Roman Catholic church being the first).
The Pale Scot
@Jay:
Is that WW or only N. America?
Jay
@LeftCoastYankee:
there are a lot of anti-colonialist movements in the former British Colonies. The idea is to introduce reforms to the Colonialist Structures, left behind.
Many of those who benefited from Colonialism and the Colonial Structures are engaged in whitewashing, resistance and justifications.
Ian R
@Kent: The Korean War did give us MASH, so it was sort of a win.
Jay
@The Pale Scot:
MMIGW is mostly Canadian, some American, but there are similar groups across world.
moonbat
@LeftCoastYankee:
No, you aren’t misremembering. One of the many reasons Putin took such a deep interest in presidential electoral politics in 2016 was because he wanted those sanctions removed. OUR naiveté as a nation lies in the fact that we don’t think in those “soft” power terms. If someone isn’t throwing bombs at us or our allies we tend to think they aren’t threatening. Putin did more damage helping elect “the last guy” than a thousand bombs could have.
LeftCoastYankee
@Jay:
Sure. How many of those now “countries” are creations imposed by colonial powers and their mapmakers?
Over 400 years, where at it’s height the sun never set.
I get that people are working on fixing the future, but to declare the English the best colonial power is like declaring which type of cancer is the best.
Ian R
@LeftCoastYankee: Lung. It rid the world of Limbaugh.
Shalimar
It’s Saudi Arabia, the labyrinth of diplomacy. We have no idea what is happening in all of the back-channels and hidden corridors of power there. It takes time for these things to play out.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@To be Frank: The preference for the Saudis over the Iranians now? It’s the influence of Israel now. Bibi has a boner to bomb Iran. In the 50’s to the mid 80’s sure.
LeftCoastYankee
@moonbat:
Thanks for clarifying.
I don’t know if it’s a US thing or a general human thing, but work/activities/repercussions unfolding over time, require… well, time.
LeftCoastYankee
@Ian R:
Touche’.
Correct answer for this week.
PJ
Well, I can rest easy now that Cole and the rest of the BJ Diplomatic Corps have decided that taking out MBS will show the world who’s boss and cause the US to be newly respected around the world.
JFC.
Jay
@LeftCoastYankee:
Many people who benefitted from the imposed structures, and still benefit, are using their status, to push back against reform in a myriad of ways.
artem1s
@CaseyL:
ask Darth Cheney. The Bush Crime Family seems to have had a hard on for the Saudi’s for a while now. And an obsession with invading Iran (I guess because of losing our puppet regime there). For that matter why were the Bush’s so all fired up about the Contras? They love giving guns and money to people who have no problem butchering their own people and Americans too. Go figure
BellyCat
Thanks for stating this, JR!
Proposed (and highly useful) acronym around this joint: NRC = Not Read Comments
Using NRC before a comment would help jackals know if a comment was informed by the prior comments OR a just quick reaction to the post?
When shit is complicated, like this topic, would be a big help to know this tidbit.
Another Scott
@Jay: On my phone so no links, but one needs to remember that SA is/was a relatively tiny country that was taking in vast amounts of dollars, especially after the ’70s. It would have wrecked the economy of the US if they didn’t buy something back from us to get the dollars back home.
What else could/would they buy that would make a meaningful dent in the problem?
When trade gets out of balance like that it has real effects.
Cheers,
Scott.
Viva BrisVegas
@LeftCoastYankee: I think what was originally referred to was in the context of India, British Rule was deeply flawed but not without benefit.
The Indians got a unified nation state, a common language, a common law and a democratic system out of their colonisation. It may not have been worth the pain, but it wasn’t nothing.
Had they not been colonised, it’s likely the subcontinent would now consist of several dozen tiny statelets engaged in various levels of belligerence.
As for the perfidy of empires, I am reminded of the American Empire. Britain only ever claimed territory east of the Appalachians. Where do you think the rest of the US came from, and what happened to its original owners? The Indians, Bangladeshi and Pakistanis at least came out of colonialism with their own nation states.
Martin
@Chief Oshkosh: SA is a stabilizing influence. I mean, consider what they would prefer to have as a policy toward Iran and Israel, and the fact that they don’t because of the US and the rest of the west. If people aren’t shooting at one another, you have a much better chance of getting progress done.
It’s not specifically petristates but any single-focused economy. Witness West Virginia and coal as a bit of a local example. The real problem is that they become almost universally corrupt, which hollows out the country. Eventually single-focus commodity economies have the rug yanked out from under them, and they usually implode pretty badly. Russia is another to keep an eye on. Same problem.
There’s not a ton you can do short of helping them develop a new economy. You need to lean into trade for that. Unfortunately climate change doesn’t give us any time to play that game.
J R in WV
@Gravenstone:
So… You’re saying that murdering a columnist for the Washington Post pretty much in broad daylight ISN’T an act of war? Hmmm… I dunno ’bout that, too.
Chief Oshkosh
@Martin: Thanks again, Martin.
Geminid
@Viva BrisVegas: I think that after the British war with France ended in 1763, the British did claim the lands west of the Appalachians. Their administration of these territories threatened to deny them to the land-hungry colonists, and was one factor behind the drive for independence. In a winter campaign, George Rogers Clark defeated the British and their native allies and claimed the “Northwest” for Virginia (~1780). The Northwest Territories Act later turned these lands over to the national government, with a prohibition of slavery north of the Ohio River (the white settlers still did their best to discourage and harrass African American immigrants).
But your central point about the American Empire is correct. Almost all of us live on land taken from Native Americans by force or fraud.
Geminid
@Cheryl Rofer: The opinion piece you linked really is a good consideration of the entire Saudi situation.
And I think you may be correct in your attribution of the excessive valuation of “toughness” to X Chomosome Deficiency Disorder.
Mousebumples
@Another Scott: yup, i think i saw that same thing on Twitter. Thanks for tracking it down.
zhena gogolia
I also note the delightful misspelling of the victim’s name in the headline.
Subsole
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
Ted Cruz.
Or did you mean a starring role?