Now that the the Biden administration has declassified and released the report into the extrajudicial execution of Jamal Kashoggi, everyone has begun slamming President Biden for not doing more. I understand why Kashoggi’s colleagues at The Washington Post feel let down. I understand why his colleagues at other major news outlets feel let down. Though Nick Kristof really should just go away and atone for his own past sins.
While I, like Cole, would like a more robustly overt response that at least inflicts some pain on Muhammad bin Salman in specific and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in specific because no one’s behavior ever changes unless they go from being rewarded to being punished for it. However, there is a real, practical reason that is not being mentioned or discussed as to why the Biden administration is worried about damaging relations that would lead to Saudi no longer cooperating on a number of issues, including counter-terrorism and trying to contain Iran.
That reason is that every US Soldier, Sailor, Sailor, Airman, Marine, DOD or Service civilian, and an exceedingly large number of Americans working in Saudi as contractors is a potential hostage for Muhammad bin Salman. And I can tell you from personal experience – more on that in a bit* – that this is a VERY LARGE CONCERN!!!!
The US has a standing military deployment – predominantly training, but also some advising and assisting – that is run through several different offices. Right now one of my former students – a colonel at 30 years of service – is overseeing the Land component training for the Saudi Army. He has a counterpart overseeing Air and Sea component training – a USAF colonel (O6) and a US Navy captain (O6). This is the US Military Training Mission – Saudi Arabia. There is also the Office of the Program Manager – Saudi Arabian National Guard, which works with the Saudi National Guard. While the standing number of uniformed personnel deployed on these two missions is several hundred, they are not the only ones in Saudi Arabia. The best open source estimates that I can link to for you that I’ve been able to find of the numbers of US military personnel in Saudi Arabia is between 2,500 and 3,000 personnel. I have not been able to find an actual number for American defense contractors working in Saudi Arabia, nor for those working in other Saudi economic sectors, but it has to be several thousand at least.
Each of these Americans – every Soldier, Sailor, Airman, Marine, DOD and Service civilian, civilians from other US departments and agencies, and contractors working in the defense and other economic sectors – is a potential hostage for Muhammad bin Salman. And until or unless you can bring each of them home so that the only Americans with any ties to the US government are those with diplomatic immunity – not that I would expect that would stop bin Salman – overtly, harshly cracking down on Muhammad bin Salman is out of the question. Bin Salman has already taken a number of his cousins hostage in a shake down to take their wealth, which is the source of their power and ability to act independent of the Saudi throne. He also took the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri, and his family hostage, forcing Hariri to resign on live television. So he really isn’t too concerned with things like diplomatic immunity! Bin Salman also appears to have lured a Saudi dissident who had sought asylum in Canada back to the Kingdom, which, of course, has a lot of other Saudi dissidents both inside and outside of the Kingdom concerned for their lives and those of their families. I expect that taking US personnel hostage is not a really big step for bin Salman.
There is also another major concern that I’m sure was considered by Biden’s national security team. The fact that the Saudis have been partnering with the Emiratis and the Israelis to push the limits of private electronic (ELINT) and signals intelligence (SIGINT) to advance their own interests. Members of Biden’s team – his nominee to serve as the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy – was targeted by one of these efforts. Jeff Bezos was targeted by another. And Kashoggi’s extrajudicial execution was facilitated by one as well. Jared’s brokered agreement between the Israelis and the Emiratis wasn’t a breakthrough for peace, it was just a formalization of a longstanding, largely clandestine relationship. But until the US Intelligence Community is able to get a handle on this Saudi-Emirati-Israeli ELINT/SIGINT campaign, they have to be concerned about what may have been hacked and what might be released by bin Salman, as well as his overt ally Muhammad bin Zayed of the UAE and his covert ally Benjamin Netanyahu as they pursue their own interests within their countries, within the Middle East, and within the US.
Any policy, and any strategy to achieve that policy, requires assuming a certain amount of risk. Right now anything involving Saudi Arabia and Muhammad bin Salman specifically, let alone the Middle East in general, involves a lot of strategic risk. Given that President Biden’s first priority is getting the COVID pandemic under control, followed by getting his administration staffed all while navigating a Senate whose Democratic majority survives only so long as all 48 Democrats and the 2 Independents who caucus with them remain healthy, alive, and on the team and a House that now only has a five seat Democratic majority, Muhammad bin Salman is an irritant, not a priority. If I was advising on this, and I AM NOT, my recommendation would be to stand down the US training missions and remove SOFA protections from US defense contractors pending a top to bottom review. Stand everyone down and pull them out and either stage them at CENTCOM Forward in Bahrain or redistribute them to other US bases in Europe and in the continental US (CONUS). This would definitely concentrate bin Salman’s attention that his actions have repercussions. Moreover, no one actually knows if these training missions actually have any effect, if they actually make the Saudi military more effective as a fighting force or that it is just a way to have Saudi pay the US a lot of money to do the same training year after year with the best parade military money can buy.
But until or unless we get our personnel out of the Kingdom, cracking down on bin Salman is a non-starter because he has several thousand US military personnel, DOD and Service civilians, and American defense contractors he can take hostage. And he has been very willing to take hostages in the past to get what he wants!
Open thread!
* At the end of September and beginning of October 2018 I was a finalist for a contract position that would have deployed me to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for one to two years. While I cannot go into details of the position, I can state that it was supervisory – I would have been the team leader/in country lead for the project – and high profile within the Kingdom’s defense ministry. For all intents and purposes I would have been running a priority defense program for the Saudis for 12 to 24 months until the team could get the Saudis trained to do so themselves, including designing a training and education program for them, and teaching them how to run it, so they could self sustain the program once our contract had expired. I was recruited for consideration for the project by a headhunter/professional recruiter, discussed it with my current boss who was willing to give me up for a year or two to do it, discussed it with several retired senior US military leaders I’ve worked for and with as the project was, at the time, backed by the US government, but not a US government contract. The contract was directly with the Kingdom and I wanted to make sure this wasn’t going to mess up my clearance or have me doing something at odds to the US. I was assured that it would not mess up my clearance and that the assignment was in line with US policy and encouraged and supported by the US. During my final interview, on 1 October 2018, the last question I asked was “what is the plan to get us safely out of the country if something we do, which is professionally correct, right, and appropriate, upsets someone in Saudi leadership because this isn’t a US military contract and we won’t be covered under the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the US and the Kingdom?” The people interviewing me, including the president of the company that had the contract, didn’t have a really good or comforting answer on how they’d get a bunch of Americans and Brits out with our heads attached if things went south. I don’t recall them having any answer at all. The next day Jamal Kashoggi was extrajudicially executed and what happened became public a couple of days afterwards. I never heard another word about the potential job. And I’ve never been happier not to as it confirmed my concerns about no one being able to actually ensure the safety of my team and myself should I be offered and accept the position once we were in country.
jeffreyw
Thank you.
Martin
The media is slowly starting to say the quiet parts out loud, and it can’t come soon enough.
When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross. We assumed the American flag when we first heard that, but it turned out to be the Trump flag.
Cheryl Rofer
This needs to be appended to every analysis of Biden’s foreign policy actions.
cain
@Martin:
What’s left of the GOP are basically pro-insurrectionists. I absolutely believe they will resort to violence – it is likely preached at the mega-churches.
I think we are headed for internal conflict. Tensions are already high due to the COVID – I fear what will happen after we are able to travel around.
Booger
I’m sorry Adam, but can you explain this part to me?
Suzanne
@Martin: And they have been stockpiling firearms.
Kirk Spencer
I had not considered the hostage issue. Thank you for the reminder.
hrprogressive
As close as this country may have come to an Actual Shooting War™ with Iran because The Occupant and his warmongers thought it was a good idea, while I completely understand the idea of holding autocrats like MBS and their regimes accountable, Biden needing to solve COVID within our borders, stop future American Fascist Party insurgencies, and take steps to prevent any new Actual Shooting Wars™ makes a lot of sense.
MBS thinks he’s going to turn Saudi Arabia into some sort of masterful paradise by 2030 if I recall the article that went around recentlyish, and if he really buys his own hype, I don’t think there’s much we can do to disabuse him of those notions right now.
Biden got handed a giant disastrous mess, and can barely even count on his own party to help him clean it up.
It’s not that this should be “ignored”, but it makes a lot of sense to be in the posture we’re in now, and are likely to continue to be in for a while.
Martin
@cain: I’m not sure I’d describe them quite that way. Certainly the GOP leadership is pro-insurrection. I’m not convinced the voters are, given how hard the GOP leadership is still working to convince everyone it was antifa – anyone but them.
Again, I think there are more Coles in the party than we give them credit for. Problem is, I don’t know how to break them out of this so that may not matter. How many Germans were really down with shoving Jews into ovens? I’m assuming not that many, which is why it was kept on the down-low.
That’s the trick with fascism – they lie to everyone.
Chyron HR
“Biden needs to regime change Saudi Arabia!” – Progressives, apparently
karen marie
@Kirk Spencer: There are also a lot of American civilians who live and work in Saudi Arabia – primarily for Aramco. It’s thousands of people that would have to be evacuated. There would be a lot of shouting if they were ordered to bug out.
CaseyL
@Martin: The problem isn’t how many actual GQP voters support fascism. The problem is how many don’t consider it enough of an issue to convince them to vote for Democrats, or just not vote at all. They vote (R) because they always have, or because they like the tax cuts, or the opportunity to be an overt racist, or for any number of reasons that allow them to not grapple with what their Party has become.
cain
You can’t – and they still vote GOP. They live in information bubbles, their TV, their friends, and their community – to reject it is to I believe lose all of that. There has to be a way to break the information bubble they are in. I don’t know how to do that. But you can bet that they are being constantly fed propaganda and lies.
cain
@CaseyL:
I agree that racism and “white centric culture” is why they vote against their interest. They absolutely are reacting to the minority asserting themselves, as well as LBGTQ+, women, and everyone else not under the white male patriarchy.
pat
Thank you, Adam. The folks who automatically cry “Biden screwed up..!!” are really annoying and should just stfu. They can’t possibly know what advice and information Biden is getting from his excellent team.
Poe Larity
So why we shouldn’t mess with regimes we literally prop up. Unless you think the Pakistanis are going to be their army again, they don’t have a chance.
Let their importers Japan, China, SK and the EU figure it out. I don’t care about LockMart and Academis whores losses.
Martin
@Suzanne: I’m actually not that worried about that part. I mean, they aren’t going to share their guns, not willingly at least.
My daughter asked at one point during the Capitol siege if we should have a gun. So, we’ve been talking about which houses in our neighborhood are likely to have multiple guns in them. If it goes down, most of us should have little trouble picking one off the street, or from that neighbor who has been warehousing them when the 17 year old around the corner runs them down with their car. No need to waste our money on one.
Martin
@CaseyL: Well, it’s becoming clear that the GOP leadership is concerned enough about the problem that they’re angling to get rid of the whole pesky voting issue altogether.
This is why ending the filibuster and passing HR1 is so important. The electorate is the last line of defense. You let that go and all that’s left is shooting.
Raoul Paste
@pat: This
Xavier
Biden: Muhammad my friend, do you hear those airplanes circling overhead? Do you really want to die?
Ruckus
It’s a big world, and we are 5% of it’s population, with power that we’ve abused and power that is slowly/rapidly eroding around the world. The last 4 yrs didn’t help that in any way, shape or form, as the last guy was willing to sell anyone, anything for a smile, a pat on the head and an old gum wrapper. That power came from WWII, which of course ended 76 yrs ago. It was only going to last so long, just until we’d sold advanced military weapons to enough countries that don’t really appreciate the bulling and strutting and until their countries economies became strong enough to easily stand on their own in the world. Which was about 20 yrs ago. The kids have grown up, they don’t like snotty parents and some of them were not raised all that well. Our term as parents is past, we just don’t know it yet and sure aren’t willing to admit it. As with all kids/parents, the relationships change over time, one hopes that respect and admiration work both ways. They doesn’t always happen, especially when the parents don’t give much in the way of respect and admiration and have pretty much zero concept that the kids have grown, like it or not. The world has changed, some of the kids are good and some not so much. Some appreciate the hand up, some resent there is a hand at all. Some likely will always need a hand, some will reject any and all assistance, no matter it’s shape or size and will take any advantage available to increase their independence.
This talk has been brought to you by the department of simile. Third door on the left.
Another Scott
Thanks for sharing your expert opinions and analysis.
I don’t know if “hostage” is the right word, but it’s clear that the safety of US people in KSA and the region is a major concern.
I’m reminded of Erdogan using the failed coup as an excuse to go after EVERYONE he didn’t like, or who he thought he could eliminate as a potential power center in the future. And the chaos at the US base at Incirlik…
Bonesaw is rash and hot-headed in ways that Erdogan is not (Erdogan is hot-headed, but not rash). It would be a dangerous thing for the US to overtly try to box him in without thinking about and planning for various possible reactions.
Thanks again.
Cheers,
Scott.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis, Adam
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: We’re one bad fall from Leahy, or more likely from the reporting about neurological degeneration Feinstein, away from Mitch McConnell; Senate Majority Leader.
Uncle Cosmo
I take it you mean Blockhead-Moron…? ;^D
(Disclaimer: I worked for Martin Marietta for 20 months back in the 70s…or was that 70 months back in the 20s…?)
Adam L Silverman
@Booger: When defense contractors deploy on contracts through the US military, they are covered under the Status of Forces agreement. If you withdraw that protection for the contractors, then the companies will pull their people out because they don’t want to face the legal liability if something happens to their personnel.
Does that make sense?
Immanentize
Thank you Adam! Nice details to push back against the Biden is weak narrative.
Also, as a open thread — I cannot tell you how pathetic and craven Kirsten Gillibrand looks regarding the Cuomo scandal. And I thought she was just a little over-zealous but honest about Franken. I was wrong.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: One of my former students and his family are still missing as a result of Erdogan’s excellent adventure. No word from him and no responses form his wife for several years now.
Booger
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you…I wasn’t clear on how this affected the contractors, and this makes perfect sense.
jnfr
Thanks for this post. There’s a lot there I didn’t realize.
Subsole
@pat: Especially all these talking heads who didn’t so much as meep about this at Jared K. And he was damn near holding the bone saw.
Not that twitter is at all real, but they are certainly getting roasted on it for the triple standard.
The Dangerman
March 4th this week. Wonder what’s next when Trump isn’t President Friday?
Percysowner
@Martin:
John would you consider an in depth post about your journey from Republican to breaking away from the party to where you are now?
I found you at the start of that transition. You hated Cindy Shaheen, but also were appalled by the Bush Administration promoting torture. I think it would be interesting to have you lay out your thoughts and actions in one place.
debbie
Absolutely! Not only will he see consequences, he’ll realize just how much he depends on the U.S.
Adam L Silverman
@The Dangerman: March 20th is the next date or the alternate date I’ve seen floating around.
Frank Wilhoit
Adam,
Everyone remembers 1979, and will until a human lifetime has passed: so we have ~30 more years during which any sane attitude toward Iran will be off the table.
You seem to think that if KSA (I do not say “MBS”, because Occam’s Razor dictates that the Kingdom is a monolith; “MBS” is a metonymy, like “Riyadh”) took hostages, the response would be diametrically different: that there would be a faction of Americans who would make excuses for them and effectively block any effort to hold him accountable; and that there are, despite the experience of 1979, no contingency plans (fully detailed and tested) for retaliatory action (instantaneous and overwhelming). That is, without circumlocution, shocking, and I like to think that I am not easily shocked. (After all, if nothing else, to the Americans we are talking about, Arabs are w0gs.)
If what you seem to think is true, then the actual or imaginable behavior of KSA is far from our worst problem.
Adam L Silverman
@Percysowner: The odds of Cole reading this post, let alone your comment, are somewhere between slim and none.
debbie
@Another Scott:
Don’t forget how he held his own elites prisoners, giving one a fatal heart attack and shaking down the others for money.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: I’d also recommend doing a few other things. I’d put all arms sales under review, which will hold them up for the time being. I’d put our own embassy and consulate on skeleton crews getting everyone out who we can get out out. I’d put up a travel advisory for American citizens to avoid travel to Saudi. And I’d PNG the Saudi ambassador and send him home.
Geminid
Another knowlegable and cogent post from Mr. Silverman, and it is much appreciated. I wonder if he would care to comment on MBS’s future prospects to rule Saudi Arabia in his own right. I know he has been ascendant, but he jumped the line of sucession and may not have yet established firm control over vital Saudi military and security institutions.
And can the Biden administration’s posture towards MBS affect internal Saudi politics?
MomSense
@Immanentize:
Oh no. What happened? I’ve been scrubbing my kitchen cupboards and wondering when using door handles fell so out of fashion.
Ella in New Mexico
Thanks for this Adam.
The things you list are along the lines of what I was suspecting, and your details and rationales are so on point. I’m sharing with some of my more Leftist friends who don’t understand how NATSEC and foreign relations is such a very complex, nuanced field that has to take into consideration all sorts of grey areas most people don’t realize is behind these decisions.
Oh and this to the 1000th %:
But should the day come when we can pay this bastard MBS back and knock him out of power, I’m so down for it. Getting our military out of the business of its support role with the Saudi military may just start that ball rolling downhill from inside the Kingdom.
Adam L Silverman
@Frank Wilhoit: I don’t doubt there would not be the same response, either during or the after the fact but claimed to be during response, to bin Salman taking American personnel as hostages if he decided he needed to as there was to the Iranian hostage crisis in 1979.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Do you think the sanctions imposed on the 70-some SA officials will make any impression on him? And is it unreasonable to think he’ll just go buddy up with Putin?
And would the king still stand behind him?
lahke
@MomSense:
Say, what?
Sorry, but I am not aware of all internet traditions.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: I have assumed that Biden will try to make his foreign policy actions holding actions – avoiding making things worse for exactly the reasons I quoted from you. In that light, the action against KSA is pretty strong. And he’s going to make a statement on it tomorrow (or Tuesday?).
I find the interactions with Iran a bit puzzling in this light, but I can also envision a strategy that makes sense, but we haven’t seen all of it yet.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: I honestly don’t know the answer to either. I am very, very surprised that his cousins haven’t had him killed already. And I don’t know whether they were waiting for a Democratic administration because they were worried that if US intel got wind of what they were plotting, then Jared would tip bin Salman off.
Frankly, I’m amazed that his older and seemingly more savvy cousins have let him stay in place this long.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: I really don’t know what, if anything, makes an impression on him.
As for buddying up to Putin, he did that a long time ago.
The Dangerman
@Adam L Silverman:
March 4th makes a certain amount of sense (phrase applied very, very loosely). What hallucinogenic influenced (I assume) reasoning produced March 20th?
Librarian
I just don’t think that MBS is crazy enough to take Americans hostage. He must know that if he does that, the consequences will be severe. He’s no Ayatollah Khomeini.
Calouste
If you come for the king, or in this case, the crown prince with the powers of a king, you better not miss.
Brachiator
Commenter Amir previously noted that Saudi Arabia and places within the country are essential to Islam. The Muslim world would react strongly to any actions which jeopardized these places.
Cheryl Rofer
@Ella in New Mexico:
MBS is the crown prince, chosen by his father, who is the only person in KSA that Biden will speak to, appropriately so in view of rank. His father has removed two or three previous crown princes who didn’t measure up. They’ve lost US support against Yemen. A shipment of warplanes has been held up. The report makes perfectly clear that MBS is behind Khashoggi’s murder. The king can infer that Biden is not happy about this. It might lead him to think that another crown prince might be a better successor.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: No arguments here. He doesn’t even have all his top line people in place yet, let alone the people below them – deputy assistant secretaries, directors, senior and special advisors – or the mid level and junior people in place yet anywhere. What little word I’ve gotten from people is that no one is being contacted for anything regarding hiring into the political appointments. That the top people and the COVID related positions are the priority and everything else is a huge holdup.
StringOnAStick
Thanks for your insight, Adam. I know several people who while liberal, don’t seem to think too far past the current lefty performative outrage, so it really helps to have your education and experience to draw from.
Adam L Silverman
@The Dangerman: I have no idea, just saw it referenced by some of the QAnoners.
Ella in New Mexico
@Immanentize: Ugh.
Curious about what your take on this situation is. It has a bit of the Tara Reade “scandal” odor, but then, it also sounds completely possible. I’m glad he asked for a formal investigation.
I’m totally pro victim but dammit, I wish women wouldn’t choose to release their harassment or rape charges in a “deeply moving personal essay on Medium” or by Twitter thread and would instead get an attorney and file legal charges or civil lawsuits. It just sets off a wildfire of “he said she said” public discourse that does no justice in legitimate cases and can do permanent damage to all parties involved.
Worse, it perpetuates the common idea that women lie about these things all the time which makes it so hard for those who truly deserve justice.
M31
@Martin: when fascism comes it America it will be wrapped in a No Step on Snek flag and carrying a Nazi rune
lahke
@lahke:
Or is this not related to spying on kitchen countertops? I’m so confused.
Adam L Silverman
@Brachiator: Exactly. Simple human geography – people, places, things, and how they interact in time and space – problem. Same problem we have with reducing Iran’s nuclear program. They’ve located the stuff in places that if we blow it up, we’ve just created even larger problems for ourselves.
https://mwi.usma.edu/irans-human-geography-wicked-problem-people-places-things-complicates-us-strategy/
Uncle Cosmo
{sigh} I love you dearly, boychik, but Jeebus Frackin’ Cripes, can we stop kvetching as if the Thugs in the Senate are all bulletproof and immortal & the Dems are all on death’s door? We’re also only about 2 minutes’ worth of oxygen deprivation to Yertle McTurtle’s centers of “higher” brain function from being done with him for good. (For exceedingly large values of “good.”) If it happened to Scumbag Scalia, it can happen to him.
Adam L Silverman
@The Dangerman: Here you go:
Ella in New Mexico
@Cheryl Rofer: Let that day come sooner rather than later.
Adam L Silverman
@Uncle Cosmo: The Democratic majority in the Senate is very thin. It is almost as thin right now in the House. Ignoring that reality, not recognizing it as part of one’s strategic calculus, would be malpractice.
Steeplejack
A good take on the situation, Adam.
Re people slagging Biden for not following through on campaign promises to make bin Salman or Saudi Arabia a “pariah” (can’t remember which it was): I am sure there is a lot of “What, what—holy shit!” stuff that President Biden now knows but candidate Biden didn’t.
And, to paraphrase someone on Twitter (I forget who), America’s entanglement with Saudi Arabia has been so baked into our foreign policy for decades that probably nothing that would have challenged that was even considered.
Finally, the situation is not “finalized.” I’m sure there are things that could be done later, when circumstances are more propitious.
Brachiator
@cain:
They will first try massive voter suppression. I expect this to be a big theme in Trump’s upcoming speech. The idea that whatever Republicans do is corrective action to fight against Democratic Party voter fraud. This is all based on a Big Lie, but the Republicans need this lie to justify sedition.
They may resort to violence if they can’t get their way. These dopes are convinced that they are the only true white patriots, and that America belongs to them.
Ksmiami
@M31: when fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a misspelled flag by Confederate morons with no teeth
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: Amir was saying last night in Cole’s thread, being that the Saudis are the custodian of the most holy places in Islam, their PR line would be any attack on them would be an attack on Islam itself.
Ella in New Mexico
@Adam L Silverman: Thankfully the states Leahy and Feinstein come from both have Democratic Governors who make appointments to replace vacancies until the next election.
But you know that even if it’s a for a day the minute he becomes Majority Leader again he’s start tearing the place down and throwing obstacles to delay the return of Dems to power. He will never stop doing this shit until the day he’s laid to rest.
BTW, Has anyone figured out what all the bruising and signs of IV insertion were on his hands a few months ago?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Ella in New Mexico: Vermont’s Governor is a Republican, and there may be a recall election here in CA(though even if Gov Gav is recalled, I don’t think a Republican will win).
SiubhanDuinne
@The Dangerman:
Wonder whether he’ll call out an exhortation to his followers to “MARCH FORTH!” in his speech this afternoon? It would not surprise me.
Ella in New Mexico
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Duly noted. I saw this awhile back and didn’t read the fine print he is a Republican.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Yep. They would and it would not be a hard sell.
Ruckus
@Poe Larity:
We really don’t prop up much these days. The world has changed, countries like SA really don’t get a lot from us, not in the concept of the entire world, we don’t buy much of their main/only product. But the world does. And we supposedly get more in return from the help we do give them than it costs.
zhena gogolia
You mean the problem is more complex than it might appear after 5 seconds consideration? I’m astounded.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Anyone wearing a t-shirt saying they were at the 1.6 “rally” should be arrested on sight.
zhena gogolia
@Steeplejack:
And BTW New York Times and WaPo:
WHO WAS FUCKING PRESIDENT WHEN HE KILLED KHASHOGGI?
Subsole
@Adam L Silverman: These folks really, really, REALLY need to learn how to admit they were wrong. About anything. If only to themselves.
Also, thoughts on the new Superman? Or are you more a Batman fan?
mrmoshpotato
@Adam L Silverman:
From Crackpot Ken: “while the Pope and others are rounded up”
The Pope, eh? Not looking for commentary. I just find that part amusing.
And thank you for the post on MBS.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: Eez a puzzlement!
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: Just on charges of crimes against fashion and good taste.
Adam L Silverman
@Subsole: It’s a When Prophecy Fails type of dynamic. Only $.99 on kindle!
https://www.amazon.com/When-Prophecy-Fails-Leon-Festinger-ebook/dp/B07W9GS254/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
Citizen Alan
@Ella in New Mexico: This. Somewhat relatedly, I am exasperated by ongoing coverage of the Joss Whedon “scandal.” All available evidence is that in the past, Joss Whedon was a jerk to several actors and writers who worked under him. And yet, the coverage of the story rarely gives any specifics but will frequently make veiled references to Louis CK, Weinstein, and even Epstein to imply that he’s a sexual predator or even a pedophile, as opposed to the same sort of obnoxious bully boss that 90% of Americans or more have had to suck it up and work for (only no one cares about it when the employee isn’t a good-looking celebrity).
Mousebumples
Nothing to add, except thank you for your (as always) insightful commentary, Adam.
Brachiator
@Adam L Silverman:
Would this offer an opportunity for Putin to become the primary provider of aid to the Saudis?
Ruckus
@The Dangerman:
@Adam L Silverman:
Like everything else they do and say, probably pulled out of their ass. It doesn’t have to make sense or have some attachment to reality, they don’t.
Subsole
@Steeplejack:
This. Let’s not forget it was a calm community organizer from Chitown who turned Osama into chum. Not the swaggering S&L cowboy.
I am curious. If we cut bait, and just walked all our people off, would someone try to “liberate” the holy city from the Saudis? Iraq, Iran, someone else? If owning Mecca has that kind of jam, I imagine people would scrap over it. ISIS sure tried.
I cannot see how that would be a good or desirable outcome. But I do wonder.
Yutsano
@?BillinGlendaleCA: He’s “promised” that whatever replacement will be of the same “disposition” as whoever was exiting. Since this was based around Wilmer leaving that meant a leftist leaning Independent. If Leahy has to leave before his seat is up next year who knows what is going to happen. The best scenario is he elects to retire and we get another solid Dem there.
Subsole
@Adam L Silverman: Does that apply only to us, or is it also applicable within the region?
The Dangerman
@SiubhanDuinne:
May 4th is Star Wars day.
March 4th being Start Wars day would be kinda Trumpian.
J R in WV
@debbie:
I think Adam is being very optimistic that all those people would be allowed to depart the Kingdom of Saud. If there are whole families in country, those spouses and children could be used to force the American experts to continue working with no exit possible.
Adam, Thanks so much again for the knowledge and skill you share with us on a regular basis. So glad your potential contract with the Kingdom of Saud was never entered into… could have been a real SNAFU for you and your team if the timing of Jamal Kashoggi’s murder had been different by a few months.
A shame to realize how violent and murderous much of the world is yet today. We think we are becoming more civilized, and then violence and murder breaks out anywhere, on short notice!
We have wanted to travel to distant and wonderful places, like the Silk Road, ancient Persian cities, to see the Rift Valley where a continent is being ripped apart, etc, etc. But the world is not a sunny happy place, and never has been.
susanna
@Ruckus: You write well. I don’t, so I’ll stop now.
Yutsano
@Subsole:
I can guarantee you without a doubt that is not going to happen. The only country that could possibly make ANY kind of play like that is Egypt. And honestly if they haven’t tried by now they most likely won’t. Geography alone makes that extremely difficult.
Adam L Silverman
@Subsole: Basically, I’ve got no problem with TNC writing the story/screenplay. I’m a bit more concerned with Abrams involvement, but as long as he’s just producing – not directing, not principal or secondary filmographer, not writing the script – then I can live with it.
The issue I’ve seen batted around, and there’s conflicting reporting, is whether they’re going to let TNC or whether TNC is planning to write Superman/Kal El/Clark Kent as black. Aside from the simple realism issue – if a Black appearing man had super powers and so much as hovered in place for a minute or two the entire US nuclear arsenal would be unleashed – I think there are some conceptual problems story wise.
The first is that Superman’s origin story is an adaptation of the Moses story from the Jewish bible. Adapted by a pair of what we would now call geeky Jewish American guys in the early 20th century living in NY. Between the Moses elements to the story and the what Superman stands for as an expression of what Siegel and Schuster understood as the promise and ideals of America for immigrants/the children of immigrants who were themselves still not considered fully white, despite being ethno-nationally white because they were Jewish, I’m not sure how well you can do the shift.
Additionally, the original origin story was that Kal El’s rocket crashed at the beginning of a harsh, cold, iced over winter in rural Kansas near the Kent farm outside of Smallville. The Kents, unable to have children, simply adopted him and, once things thawed enough about 7 months later, claimed that Martha Kent had gotten pregnant in the late summer, hadn’t started showing till everyone was isolated on their farms because of the winter, and since the Kents had delivered enough cows, Jonathon Kent was able to handle a complication free birth at home. So if you rewrite/reimagine Superman/Kal El/Clark Kent as Black, do you now do the same thing for the Kents? A Black farm couple living outside a small town in rural Kansas? That’s a bit of a stretch. Rural Georgia? I can buy that. Even other parts of the south, but rural Kansas is very white.
Also, how do you handle having Jor El and Lara being Black? They were from the upper classes of Krypton. So you’ve got a technologically advanced alien civilization that is Black, but that also is in science denial and allows itself to be destroyed? That’s like the opposite of Wakanda from the Black Panther. I can’t see that playing well for different reasons.
I think TNC is brilliant. I think he’s a great writer. I also know that this is Hollywood and that whatever script and screenplay he turns in will be rewritten at least a 1/2 dozen times by other people before it is finalized and actually filmed.
The other options are to write the screenplay about one of the two Black Supermen in canon: Val Zod, who becomes the Superman on Earth 2 after Kal El/Clark Kent dies or Calvin Ellis, who is the Superman of Earth 23. But that makes the movie even less mainstream and approachable for a general audience.
So I’m intrigued. I’m excited. I’m a bit appalled because of JJ Abrams. And I’m interested in seeing what actually happens.
Steeplejack
@lahke:
A second former aide has accused Cuomo of sexual harassment, and Democrats are calling for his resignation or at least an investigation.
Including, somewhat belatedly, Kirsten Gillibrand:
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: We’re all Dedicated Followers of Fashion here at Balloon Juice.
Mary G
I follow Iyad el-Baghdadi, a Palestinian exile in Norway (who has also been ID’d as an MBS target) on Twitter, who was a friend of Jamal Khashoggi (Cheryl linked to his WaPo piece last night.)
On 10/2/18 he was going nuts all day about the disappearance, and I asked Adam what he thought. He said:
I was very shocked by that, and thought Adam must be wrong. Shows what I know. MBS is bad news – an idiot who thinks he’s bulletproof and there’s no telling what he might be capable of. I am very glad Biden is pulling away from helping him bomb children in Yemen and understand why he might want to see how that goes.
Adam L Silverman
@Citizen Alan: Actually, Charisma Carpenter has made it explicitly clear what he did. And so has Michelle Trachtenberg. James Marsters has been making statements for a long time about how he feels Whedon mistreated him.
Subsole
@Yutsano: Is it more a religious issue? Or is it merely realpolitik/logistic issues?
Because that not happening makes walking away sound better.
way2blue
Thank you Adam for sharing your deep knowledge of Middle Eastern dynamics. My uninformed assumption had been that the statements released to the public are only the ‘tip of iceberg’ as compared to what’s happening in classified space. But I’m troubled by the thought that the crown prince would in fact take Americans hostage. So look forward to a next step along the lines that you suggested.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Yutsano:
So Leahy’s replacement would have to be a Deadhead? Is it too late for the Blogfather to move to Vermont?
Adam L Silverman
@Brachiator: Possibly. Why anyone would want his crap is beyond me.
Also, it is becoming ever more clear that if you invite Putin in to sell weapons and have his people provide the train and support mission, they never leave and actually believe they own the place.
Matt McIrvin
@Adam L Silverman:
Hey, Sony Animation pulled off a Miles Morales Spider-Man movie and it was awesome, maybe the best superhero movie ever made. So these things can work even if they’re drawing from the deep tracks.
Adam L Silverman
@Subsole: I don’t understand what you’re asking.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
what have the Romans ever done for us?
Adam L Silverman
@Mary G: Also, always trust that Adam guy. He knows his toast!
Jeffro
OT but my understanding is that his orange moronness barely broke 50% in a CPAC straw poll today as to who these nutbags want as their next president. LOL, please tell us more about ‘Dems in disarray’ national snooze media.
Same poll without trumpov: DeSantis at 40-something % and Noem at 20-something %. MTG nowhere in sight.
Covid denialism = still going to be a major factor for years to come. DeSantis and Noem, running on a “Die For the Economy!” ticket. hoo boy.
Adam L Silverman
@Matt McIrvin: But there’s a difference there. Actually a couple. The first is that Miles Morales was established as a mainstream, in canon, character for a very long time. For an extended period he was Spider-Man. And Into the Spider-Verse was a cartoon.
Val Zod and Calvin Ellis are, for all intents and purposes, not particularly well known variants of Superman. And Val Zod is, as a character, less than a decade old. And this isn’t going to be a cartoon/animated movie.
I don’t read Spider-Man comics, never had. And even I knew who Miles Morales was. No one knows who Val Zod or Calvin Ellis are.
Subsole
@Adam L Silverman: Very good points.
Am also extremely mixed about JJ. Lord, I hope they keep a leash on him…
I will say I cannot really see them going into the various earths, just in the interest of keeping the appeal as broad as possible.
I suppose you could write the Kents as an interracial couple. That would be a very interesting angle, to me.
As far as America going nuclear on him? Well, yeah. But that’s ANY high-tier super. Most of the mid-tiers, too. I mean, Batman and Iron Man are probably the highest tier supers any sovereign nation could reasonably tolerate, as they’re the kind that could be coopted or incorporated.
I used to LOVE the X-men. They were my faves.
Until I realized H.P. Gyrich kind of had a point. You really cannot just let Quicksilver go walking about. Nevermind the Prof or Magnus or, well, any of them. Not without a fundamental redefinition of “monopoly of force”.
Not to say Genosha was right, either…
Immanentize
@Ella in New Mexico: The problem with all manufactured scandals is that the best of them weave so much truth into them that one can never know. Do I think Cuomo is a bully and a type of mafia fon politician. Absolutely. Do I think his self-sense of power during his very public fight with Trump grew to new heights? That seems true from all the public information — most notably his decision to hide the actual retirement/nursing home deaths because he thought it would hurt him politically and be used as a FOX news talking point. The latter is true, but the decision was absolutely indefensible.
So, knowing all this, can I believe he is a randy old man who will try to use his position and power to get a little strange? I do, but I don’t know yet. What I DO know is that he should not be allowed, as he has, to pick his own person to investigate him.
ETA. My Adam disclaimer:. My mother is in an independent living apartment is a transitional facility in upstate NY. She is rapidly deteriorating from the isolation. I’m pissed. ?
Cameron
So…if we really wanted an ally in the Middle East, it should be Iran, no? They’d like to get their shit together, they like forming alliances (unlike USA, which likes to dictate alliances), they have a whole hell of a lot more freedom of religion than KSA, they can be a gateway for rapprochement with China/Russia, etc., etc.
mrmoshpotato
@Jeffro:
Don’t tempt them. :)
Subsole
@Adam L Silverman: The Great Russians never really left, did they?
Real post-Delian League vibes there.
“Wow, you guys suck even worse than Pericles!”
Baud
@Jeffro:
Too moderate.
CaseyL
@Adam L Silverman:
Not sure about Val Zod, but even I know that Calvin’s a noted Kryptonian fashion designer.
Subsole
@Adam L Silverman: How much weight does the custodianship of Mecca carry against, say, Iran?
Steeplejack
Did the Former Guy speak at CPAC yet? It was scheduled for 3:40 EST, but I haven’t seen Twitter or the political TV shows erupting.
Subsole
@Cameron: Israel may have some words over that strategy.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: Of course, Ergodan decided he needed to be involved in Libya, also too.
DailySabah:
Erdogan is now saying that he’ll talk about leaving if everyone else leaves first.
It’s a mess over there, and Erdogan seems determined to make everything worse. Is he trying to resurrect the Ottoman Empire or something??
Cheers,
Scott.
Citizen Alan
@Adam L Silverman: I was unclear. There have been articles that gave greater explanation of the accusations. But from what I have read, the alleged conduct, IMO, still does not justify reporting that casually lumps him in with men accused of sexual assault. And when people report that “Joss Whedon is not to be in a room alone with Michelle Tractenberg” without any other context, most people are going to read it as “Joss Whedon is a sexual predator who goes after teenaged girls” which is not what the actual allegations are about.
Accepting all the public accusations as true, he was an obnoxious jerk who created a working environment that many of his employees found toxic. IOW, he’s on par with at least two of my former employers and in both cases, I had to suck it up because I was an at-will employee. If we’re not going to talk about serious reform for employment law and having things like industrial tribunals that can police bad bosses and also the abolition of employment-at-will, then, well I’m sorry, but I have too many other things to be outraged over jerk-ass bosses who create “toxic environments” that people are paid six and seven figure salaries to work in. YMMV.
Immanentize
@Ella in New Mexico:
And face bruising! I believe the scientific consensus is that those marks were from extracting him from his crypt to give him a transfusion of Romanian teenage virgins.
MagdaInBlack
@Steeplejack: He’s an hour late (because he’s pouting over his polling)
Eta: and hes’s up, wandering around the stage to the music.
Immanentize
@?BillinGlendaleCA: But Vermont’s Gov. Has pledged to appoint someone from the same party should anything befall a Senator. But that leaves a LOT of room for a State like Vermont.
rikyrah
Thanks Silverman
CaseyL
@Cameron: @Subsole:
I’m long past sick and tired of Israel running the US Mid-East policy. Allying with Iran rather than S.A. could be better for the US, and better for the Mid-East.
I’m Jewish, and it pains me to say this, but our slavish devotion to Israel stopped being strategically smart quite some time ago and has been an actual liability for years now.
SFBayAreaGal
@Adam L Silverman: You describe my feelings exactly, especially concerning JJ Abrams.
Subsole
@Ella in New Mexico: Stigmata Diabolica.
Steeplejack
@MagdaInBlack:
I’m liking MSNBC’s approach. They said that they are monitoring the speech and will provide coverage if he says something significant, but they’re not showing it live.
ETA: Fox News is showing it live. The networks and CNN are not.
Subsole
@Immanentize: Vermont’s Gov is a Republican. I wouldn’t trust him to hit the ground if I pitched him off the roof.
MagdaInBlack
@Steeplejack: I ‘m watching Hal Sparks watch it. I like Hals heckling.
Immanentize
@Ruckus: We prop us many countries in so many ways. Israel jumps to mind. As does Qatar. And the Phillipines. And Egypt and Kenya. And ….
Darkrose
@Citizen Alan: Like Adam said, Charisma Carpenter has been quite clear that Whedon’s first reaction on hearing that she was pregnant was to ask if she was going to “get rid of it.” He berated her for her weight while she was pregnant, and refused to allow her to adjust her schedule. Other female cast members have talked about how he was constantly haranguing them about their weight as well. Well before this came out, his wife wrote about how he was cheating on her with the younger women in his shows, and then gaslighting her about it. He’s a thoroughly awful person.
Immanentize
@Subsole: Massachusetts Governor is also Republican and I certainly believe he would hit the ground should he face defenestration.
Subsole
@CaseyL: For what it’s worth, this Gentile agrees.
Frankly, I think you’d have a harder time selling the Evangelicals on it than most American Jews.
Immanentize
@MagdaInBlack: You mean the Odol Rune stage?
Subsole
@Immanentize: I sense a science experiment opportunity!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Immanentize: A Republican pledge and $5 will get you a coffee.
MagdaInBlack
@Immanentize: That very one, yes.
Darkrose
@Citizen Alan: Would you be saying that if you were a woman, I wonder? Because this comment sounds like “Those broads should just shut up and deal because they’re getting paid.”
Patricia Kayden
Power hungry Republicans are doing the most to suppress Democratic votes. If Democrats don’t pass legislation re voting rights protection, we know what to expect in future elections.
Adam L Silverman
@Subsole: A fair amount.
Immanentize
@Adam L Silverman: I think TNC is most likely to write Superman as ubermensch. Thinking he is doing the right thing for America! as a midwestern farm boy but really serving the Bunde. Then realizing….
That would be an excellent Superman story. I trust TNC and his lifelong love of the comics.
Adam L Silverman
@Citizen Alan: I never watched his shows, and while I did watch the first two Avengers movies, I don’t really have a dog in this fight other than he seems to be a not particularly good person.
Immanentize
@Steeplejack: That is weak sauce from Gillibrand — that is like her third or fourth statement. The subpoena power is the only new part.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: He’s a liche. Until/unless someone finds his soul jar or soul bottle and destroys it, he’ll remain among us.
cain
@Percysowner:
I don’t think it’s that interesting – Cole is consistent with his values. The GOP just moved away from all that and he stayed the same for the most part. But once it became apparent how badly it moved – sometimes you end up just looking at values that made you attached to the GOP in the first place and just doing a full throated tear down.
Adam L Silverman
@SFBayAreaGal: My feeling is that if you want to do this type of movie with this type of origin story and you want the main character – the super hero if you will – to be Black, then do Icon.
https://www.dccomics.com/characters/icon
Dwayne McDuffie specifically created him to be the Black equivalent to Superman. And, frankly, I’d like to see this movie and see it done right.
https://dc.fandom.com/wiki/Augustus_Freeman_(Dakotaverse)
cain
@Brachiator:
This. We are talking about the cultural and religious center of Islam here and you can’t remotely think of putting hostile forces even if it is to get your own people out.
We would have to do a slow draw down if we wanted to do anything overt.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: A lot of them failed and failing states: Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, both North and South Dakota, etc, etc.
Immanentize
@Subsole: kind of like Gallileo’s feather and cannonball? “Two Republican Governors, of different heights and weights, have been recruited to demonstrate a critical aspect of the limitations of gravitational pull….”
Frank Wilhoit
@Adam L Silverman: I have the impression that Islamophobia is exactly central to Putin’s domestic appeal. Is that overstated, or, if not, do you think he could turn his propaganda machine on a dime?
cain
@Adam L Silverman:
It’s why a voting rights act is badly needed – but a 50 state strategy of getting into the local legislatures from dog catcher on up. Sometimes I think our top strategists and paid consultants think to only shore up the blue areas and leave the red states as gone cases.
Mary G
Whut? (I only read the tweets, I can’t hear that voice for health reasons.)
Immanentize
@Adam L Silverman: Truly the best laugh of days! Respect.
Subsole
@Immanentize: Fund it.
Jeffro
@Baud: win
Also, sadly, true.
Subsole
@cain: I think it’s almost impossible to win local without some voting rights legislation.
Give the QTP a year, it will be literally impossible.
Now, getting Manchin and Sinema to go along will be interesting.
Getting it thru the Supreme Court will be…nervewracking.
But if there is anything to burn our powder on, it’s election equality. We have nothing without it. Up to court-packing if needs be.
Frank Wilhoit
@cain: Cole is apparently too young to remember Nixon. But anyone who enabled Reagan, even for a moment, has a lot of ‘splainin to do. I do not pretend to assess the adequacy of whatever explanations have already been given in this or other fora.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: yes, this. Don’t do “black Superman”…do “Icon: the Movie”
Or better yet, do a Superman movie where Superman barely plays a role…thanks to Icon’s heroics ;)
Subsole
@Mary G: This fucker is talking about Puerto Rico, isn’t he.
Yeah, I know it’s not another country. He don’t, though.
aliasofwestgate
@Adam L Silverman: That sounds awesome! The comics label that spawned that character and Virgil (Static Shock) are making a comeback so that would be workable too.
I do know of Val-Zod myself, also another Elseworld son of Zod, Hernan Guerra from Gods and Monsters. I’d love to have any of them explored, but the chances of that for a movie are very small. Finding a way to bring even a biracial Clark Kent into things would flip the script just enough to subvert it. But the writing would have to be brilliant to pull off. Plus yeah, JJ Abrams needs to be tightly leashed or he’s gonna trash it. That’s not counting WB’s own meddling on top of that. I think TNC can finesse it out, but the process of filmmaking is a tricky thing from writing just comics alone.
MagdaInBlack
@Subsole: Guatemala. Central American countries. It had to do with deportations.
Jay
@Another Scott:
Libya is a mess.
The GNA is the “official government”,
The LNA is not.
Lip service is paid to backing the GNA, but many have their hands dirty with the LNA for “reasons”. The embargo is a joke.
Haftar is now being run by Wagner.
Turkish training, weapons, ships and drones are slowly turning the armed forces of the GNA from being a collection of militias into an actual Army, while winning slowly on the ground.
The LNA is becoming more and more reliant on Mercs, many hired under false pretences or impressed.
To be Frank
It also seems like our ally Qatar is no longer being extorted by KSA and UAE. Other the $600 million Qatar “invested” in 666th 5th ave using Cadre as the cut-out, I wonder how much was extorted out of Qatar in total.
Fleeting Expletive
As to President Biden’s call with King Salman, I feel good about these two old lions meeting over the problems of sons, and of countries. Biden brings a depth of understanding to the situation, the decades of experience and learning the lessons of history. Especially I like that the call was to the elder King, as befits his stature, and places MBS in his rightful place as an unruly wayward son. Hope I’m right.
Villago Delenda Est
Kristoff is Village scum. Fuck ’em.
Jay
@To be Frank:
first responders to the Sawdi Arabia/UAE/Petty Kingdoms assault on Qatar were Turkey and Iran providing support to Qatar and Oman bailing on the Petty Kingdoms.
Kinda the wrong results for Sawdi policy.
btw, Brookfield Asset Mgmt, not Cadre.
debbie
@Mary G:
NPR reported on the beginning of his speech. He said Biden is the worst president ever after 30 days. He launched into Biden being anti-this, anti-that, even anti-science. In short, same old, same old.
MagdaInBlack
@debbie: Yup, right down to the cat butt mouth. There was even a “Sir” story.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
@Steeplejack: CNN’s current chyron: “Trump serves up same old lines, same old lies”
Ouch!
CaseyL
@debbie: Tom Nichols has been live-tweeting the speech, and says it’s basically a recitation of Greatest Hits, but with lower energy and more slurring.
Baud
@Fleeting Expletive:
Hunter Biden:Laptop::MBS:Bone saw
Citizen Alan
@Darkrose: No, I’m saying that if it were women working minimum wage being treated this way, it wouldn’t get 1/1000th of the media coverage. And I’m also saying that Whedon’s conduct, while terrible, does not rise to the level of insinuating that he’s a sexual predator who targets minor girls which has been the subtext of much of the coverage.
Jay
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
took them fucking long enough to actually “report”.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
If a tree falls in a forest and no MSM networks are around to broadcast it, does it make a sound?
debbie
@CaseyL:
Nope, no change whatsoever. He’s even too lazy to start his own party! ?
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
Extremely OT, but HOLY SHIT!!
https://whnt.com/news/alabama-news/bill-pending-to-allow-no-excuse-absentee-voting-in-alabama-secretary-of-state-officials-speak-in-favor-of-passage/
Moving in the right direction on voting rights… I’m kinda stunned.
Brachiator
@debbie:
I listened to part of the talk on YouTube, switched it off and jumped in again.
Lots of lies. Hard appeals to American Exceptionalism. Nationalism with a pretense of being respectful of diversity.
Some really ugly stuff targeting transgender people.
False claims about the centrality of Judeo-Christian values to the Founders.
As always, Trump gets energized by the crowd as he plays to them and touts his own phony magnificence.
Nothing new. He just picked up where he left off.
zhena gogolia
@CaseyL:
He’s pretty funny on this, but I have no energy for it.
Another Scott
@Fleeting Expletive: I’m no expert, but King Salman is 85. Wikipedia says he had gallbladder surgery in 2020.
There have been rumors for ages that he’s not really in charge and hasn’t been for quite a while…
Cheers,
Scott.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Biden has been in office 38 days and he STILL hasn’t gone golfing!
debbie
Even better, Harley and Cruz only scored single digits in the straw poll!
debbie
@Brachiator:
All I really want to know is what he thinks about that statue of him.
ColoradoGuy
Adam has done us a service by reminding us the choices in the Mideast are ALL bad, with some worse than others. Could US citizens in the oil and military support community become hostages? Sure, why not? The KSA has no constitution or rule of law.
It goes downhill from there. The KSA has been aligned with the USA since WWII, but that could always change. There’s Russia. There’s China. Both would love to weaken the USA and split us from our allies in Europe and Asia. As despicable as MBS is, our experience with regime change in that part of the world has been a sobering experience. Things never turn out the way we hope or expect.
CatFacts
Thank you, Adam.
As for the Whedon situation, I’m with Darkrose on this one. If what Charisma Carpenter is saying is even remotely true, she was essentially fired for being pregnant. Though I’m sure there was enough plausible deniability to avoid a lawsuit. I’m no lawyer, but to me that goes way beyond garden variety shitty boss. That’s firing people for being a member of a protected class. Is it Weinstein? No. Is it something I want to defend in any way? Nope.
Jay
@Citizen Alan:
Yet.
the rest, yup.
There is an asshat CT Customer we have finally trained to wear a mask properly, by simply saying, “you are not wearing a mask/wearing a mask properly”, then going into the hood, ( tool area), closing the door and locking it behind us.
Managers can deal with that shit.
He recently tried to switch to the “free peach is absolute” CT which I quickly shut down by pointing out that “if free peach was absolute, your retail shopping experience would be considerably different”.
trollhattan
@Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant):
What’s the catch? [Gotta be a catch, amirite? This is frickin’ Alabama we’re talking about.]
J R in WV
Open Thread:
Cool. Raining here, hard, off and on. Tiny pond by the front door has dozens of wood frogs, chiriping and croaking in the warm rain. I think the warm rain last night woke the little wood frogs up, and they all said, “Let’s all head over to the hillside pond over there!” and this morning when I opened the front door to let a dog out, they were all happily swimming on the surface of the pond, and all croaked and dove for the bottom instantly.
Spring, when the pond is active and full of water, always includes waves of different species of hillside frogs. So sweet to hear their little croaks and splishing around in the tiny pond. It’s as great as the birds who show up this time of year… Love tiny amphibians !!! Tree frogs / aka peepers show up in a few weeks. We usually have 1 or 2 small bullfrogs late in the season, and a few toads.
It’s a little bit of a cut-throat situation sometimes. I’ve watched a pair of toads on one end of the tiny pond laying and fertilizing their eggs, which come in a long string, unlike frogs which lay globular bundles of eggs, while on the other end of the tiny pond, 6 or 8 feet away, Mr Bullfrog is sucking down toad egg sushi like a long noodle pasta. So futile and sad, but the carnivorous frog has every right to thrive as the toads do.
That’s the spring water report for today — we will keep you posted on the next surge of amphibians in the tiny hillside pond. Always hope the raccoons and herons don’t find the reproductive frenzy going on outside the front door! Dogs are harsh on ‘coons in the deep woods, so that probably won’t be an issue.
Herons on the other hand…..
Jay
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
38 days and still no First Cat.
That’s the real scandal.
MagdaInBlack
@J R in WV: My parents had a cabin on a small lake north of Emo, Ontario. When we would arrive in early June, the small lawn was quite soggy, it being low peaty ground, and each step would prompt a small explosion of teeny tiny frogs hopping. Hilarious to watch my mothers little dog hop-chasing those frogs.
My favorite spring sound is the frogs singing =-)
Tenar Arha
@Citizen Alan: @Ella in New Mexico:
Time constraints often make it impossible to hold serial sexual harassers accountable.
The problem with most workplace harassment is that if you don’t report it immediately, you’re out of luck in holding anyone accountable if there was no sexual assault you can bring criminal charges for, & even then you still end up with barely being able to charge someone like Bill Cosby after years of him drugging & raping women.
Just to check I looked it up:
Most harassment tends to be done without witnesses, in private. Proving that it’s happening, and so that the actors didn’t suffer blowback on their careers, is almost impossible.
A recent example of a successful sexual harassment claim is Eliza Dushku’s case. Only reason she could hold CBS accountable for her harassment by Michael Weatherly on Bull was because there were witnesses (& IIRC there may have been video tape). Plus it was around the same time it became clear Les Moonves was pathologically exposing himself to women & worse in private & CBS was doing an internal investigation anyway. But note well, have you seen her on any tv shows recently? I checked on IMDB her last credited roles were in 2017, & the settlement wasn’t reported on until late 2018.
Brachiator
@Darkrose:
Sadly, this has too often been standard behavior by Hollywood executives of all genders. Whedon is not an outlier here at all. This is not defending him or even denying that there might have been worse behavior towards some actors.
But Hollywood has a long history of insisting on a false ideal body type, and had no problem even putting the health of female stars at risk.
One thing I find odd, but again not an excuse for Whedon, is that he appeared to support women as creators and staff. Marti Noxon, for example, was a screenwriter and executive producer on Buffy and a consulting producer on the early seasons of Angel.
This kind of behavior is, unfortunately, is not unusual, and not always a simple reflection of anything about a person.
Patricia Kayden
Geminid
@Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant): Even more OT: I responded to your query on last Sunday’s Garden thread, regarding a yard clearing project. I commented some hours after the thread died so you might have missed it. May well not be helpful. Good luck with this project!
J R in WV
@MagdaInBlack:
Truly a fact — spring frogs sing so beautifully ~!!~ I haven’t ever seen them springing from sodden peaty soil, sounds wonderful~!~
When we visited my cousin in Kona, HI, there were exterminators who advertised they could get rid of your peepers, singing too loud for your sleep — despicable in my view, to kill frogs, even if they’re invasive frogs from Puerto Rico….
ETA: Just saw a great spelling correction error regarding continuing power outages from the ice storm last week. There are so many power lines in WV the IBEW linemen have to hike up mountains to repair, so it can take a while. But check this segment of a story out:
Obviously should be “assisting with” — but wound up here instead!! And now it is on the innertubes forever!!
Jay
@J R in WV:
at the place, lots of various tree frogs, most of which we would find in the saucers of the potted plants, in the dry heat of summer. Hear them all the time, see them rarely.
would rarely see frogs in the ponds as there are very few natives or invasives.
Lots of Spadefoot toads, twice a year, the migration down to the lake to mate, then the migration of the adults and juveniles back up into the hills. If you see the surface of the road moving, stop driving.
taumaturgo
Liberals for the most part are critical of treasure and blood wasted in foreign interventions much less regime change. Did you mean conservative Democrats?
Tenar Arha
ETA Fixing paragraphs so the text makes sense….
@Citizen Alan: @Ella in New Mexico:
Time constraints often make it impossible to hold serial sexual harassers accountable.
The problem with most workplace harassment is that if you don’t report it immediately, you’re out of luck in holding anyone accountable if there was no sexual assault you can bring criminal charges for, & even then you still end up with barely being able to charge someone like Bill Cosby after years of him drugging & raping women.
Just to check I looked it up:
Most harassment tends to be done without witnesses, in private. Proving that it’s happening, and so that the actors didn’t suffer blowback on their careers, is almost impossible.
Now imagine Charisma Carpenter who was pregnant when Whedon did the worst stuff, or Michelle Trachtenberg who was 15 when she started on Buffy, that’s not a lot of time to realize you have a valid complaint or how to go about documenting it before the standard 6 months ran out.
A recent example of a successful sexual harassment claim is Eliza Dushku’s case. Only reason she could hold CBS accountable for her harassment by Michael Weatherly on Bull was because there were witnesses (& IIRC there may have been video tape). Plus it was around the same time it became clear Les Moonves was pathologically exposing himself to women & worse in private & CBS was doing an internal investigation anyway. But note well, have you seen her on any tv shows recently? I checked on IMDB her last credited roles were in 2017, & the settlement wasn’t reported on until late 2018.
Brachiator
Trump closes his speech with an appeal for money, touting a new website.
The grift goes on.
Jay
This kind of behavior is, unfortunately, is not unusual, and not always a simple reflection of anything about a person.
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
The grift goes on.
Which it has for decades and which I suspect will for as long as he is alive. And given that he has infected others with his grift, as he was infected prior, I suspect that the same grift will be with us for a very, very long time.
Brachiator
@Jay:
None of this is always true. People are complex.
Or, if you wish, people can overcome their low moral character.
Johnny Cash and June Carter, for one example, had a great, strong marriage. But they dumped other partners to get there.
Do you really want to say that they had low moral character?
Jay
@Ruckus:
the grift has always been with us. Past grifts however were less stupid, because making money at the grift required roping some of the less than morons.
Now, with the intertubes, and the increase in morons, the grift becomes .com + <iq =$$$$$
Patricia Kayden
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
@trollhattan: None so far. Secretary of state is a Republican, too.
Winston
Trump’s speech is over. I hate to admit I watched the whole thing and I feel dirty. Need to shower. But listened to him and believe repbs believe what he says. After lying about Biden, he bragged and lied about how well things are going because of him and lied about all his accomplishments. Kinda admitted to the election loss, because of Democratic fraud and warned republicants of the dangers of not changing the laws so they could win in the future. Was a total asshole as usual amid cheers from those in attendance and I wished I wouldn’t have wasted my time.
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
@Geminid: Thanks, I’ll go review it.
Jay
@Brachiator:
Did they dump other partners to get there,
or did they get there, then dump other partners?
my ex, constantly accused me of “cheating”.
( mostly because I had good working relationships and friendships with other women, which was mostly because many of my male co-workers were toxic),
during the separation period, I discovered, it was all projection.
SWMBO’s ex, spent 10 years with her, in love with and having an on again, off again affair with a co-worker, and barely showing up for the marriage, which because of circumstances, for a long time, was the core of her existence.
Brachiator
@Winston:
Jumped into and out of the speech. I was curious to see if he would feel emboldened by the crowd (Yes) and whether they would love him without reservation (again, Yes).
He declared war on all the Republicans who voted to convict him and who even failed to bend the knee. He slammed the courts, including his own appointed judges, for not buying into his lies and bullshit.
The Republican Party appears to be more than willing to go down with him.
Good. Bunch of dopes.
Ken
They’re pretty sure that even with no-excuse voting, Republicans will still win. Contrast with Georgia.
Just Chuck
The Saudi royalty want our bases there, right? Leverage. Bonesaw goes or we do.
Ken
Drums keep pounding rhythm to the brain…
Rumor has it that the only way to get rid of an earworm is to share it.
Winston
@Jay: Most confuse love with not having sex with someone else. Some do not confuse love with allowing their love to include it. It is the better way. After 47 years of monogamy, we found the better way and were better humans for doing so. The love grew and grew. We were sorry we waited so long. When you love someone like you always did there can never be a time when you didn’t.
zhena gogolia
@Brachiator:
Jay
@Just Chuck:
not anywhere as simple as that.
by going off the “reservation” for decades, but gradually, ( pushing boundaries), the Sawdi’s have gone from being the junior partner in the “relationship”, to being the dominant partner.
the flip was apparent with 9/11.
Steeplejack
For those with the intestinal fortitude, Aaron Rupar recaps the Former Guy’s CPAC speech (with video snippets).
Brachiator
@Jay:
They were both castigated by fans for cheating on their spouses, divorced and got married.
But you know, I apologize for what is a distraction. I think that people’s personal lives can be messy, and do not automatically accuse people of “cheating” or moral failure.
However, this is a side issue. Joss Whedon’s professional behavior and possible mistreatment of his actors is a more important subject.
And I note that here in Southern California, I have read and heard about executives who presumably have “strong” families who nonetheless treat actors and other performers like crap, especially female performers.
Also, Whedon has been accused of mistreating a black actor who appeared in the Justice League movie. Sadly, many of this actor’s claims were dismissed by a lot of people until this other damaging material about Whedon came out.
Brachiator
@Ken:
La de da de de, la de da de da
Starfish
@Percysowner: He has done this before. Watching people play political football with Terry Schiavo’s body was what really drove him over the edge.
Jay
@Winston:
one can love/have sex with anyone one wants, as long as it is the agreed terms of the relationship.
when the agreed terms are monogamy, one either remains monogamous, renegotiates the terms, or leaves the relationship.
one can love with out sex, have sex with out love, but in a “loving relationship”, both are supposed to be combined.
Starfish
@Brachiator: We can’t jeopardize these places or interfere with Hajj. Hajj usually brings millions of people to Saudi Arabia. Some of them have occasionally been trampled to death by the crowds. This year was weird though.
Winston
@Jay: Agreed terms are the key.
Immanentize
@Winston: I’m listening
Starfish
@Ella in New Mexico: Honestly, what legal charges could she bring here? Since when has the legal system cared at all about sexual harassment victims or rape victims?
This is about work norms that are changing and need to change. You don’t give a bunch of power to dudes that are going to sexually harass people half their age.
Jay
@Brachiator:
our society allows some people, for a bunch of nonsensical reasons, to treat other people like shit, until it doesn’t.
eg, Canada’s now former Governor General.
I don’t see any point in treating other people like shit, except for those who deserve it.
I loath people who do it just because of ego.
Brachiator
@Steeplejack:
I watched a good chunk of the Orange Beast’s speech.
A lot of the old lies repackaged. He even did the “And the guy said, ‘Sir! How could you be so wonderful?’ ” nonsense about something or other.
Just confirms that Trump is incapable of intellectual or moral growth.
And yet his base loves it. Just eats it up.
Feathers
@Ella in New Mexico: Waiting for more to come out on the Cuomo situation. However, I think this is far from a Tara Reid situation. Biden is known for being a boringly faithful husband and a very good boss who treated his staff well (and expected them to behave ethically as well). There was just so much in her story which didn’t ring true. I worked briefly on Capitol Hill in the 80s. That she was alleging that this happened in the hallways of a busy Senate office building was laughable. Staffers said Biden kept campaign and Senate staff separate. Not everyone does, but those that do are generally very serious about it.
Cuomo, on the other hand, is known for running a chaotic ship. People are “loyal” or enemies. People who cross him find themselves without a job, even if they don’t work for the NY state government. You hear about really weird stuff, like someone prepared to speak out opening the newspaper to find an article with quotes from someone they met on a dating app, after their run in with Cuomo. You don’t run an operation that dirty without something to hide.
On victims coming forward through Medium posts, etc. Some of this is just not trusting newspapers to actually run the story. Reporters have to go to the subject of the story for their response, so you can end up with all the backlash, but without the relief of the truth coming out. The pattern on all of these stories is that once someone tells their story, others come tumbling out. Unless they don’t, which is another piece of evidence in a story not being true. It’s also just about having control of the first telling of your story.
On Joss Whedon, his wife said he slept with many of the young actresses on his productions. There may be no violations of consent involved, but his general reputation for assholish and controlling behavior makes me think NDAs are a more likely reason we haven’t heard any of these women’s stories.
And “this happens everywhere”? Yes, it does, and it shouldn’t. People in Hollywood are learning that they can speak up when powerful people treat them poorly. Will it help their situation? Maybe, maybe not. But once you are branded a troublemaker, your career is in trouble, so why not get a public reputation as a brave truth teller?
Edit: typos, clarity
Subsole
@MagdaInBlack: Of course….
I cannot believe the media misses that oaf…
Subsole
@Jay: That’s some Area88 shit…
Subsole
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
Depends if they can find a small Midwestern diner.
Feathers
@Starfish: The other issue is that civil law suits open you up for discovery. Nasty, nasty business. Especially if the person involved has a reputation for people who cross them finding smear stories in the tabloids.
Subsole
@taumaturgo: Seriously?
You went with that?
-2 / 10
Apply yourself.
Brachiator
@Jay:
Totally agree.
Winston
@Immanentize: Well we found it wasn’t just us that were bored with our sex relationship after so many years. So we reached out. There were a lot of others. Thank god for the internet. We met many other couples that were going through the same thing. We found it not only improved our personal sexual relationship but the personal relationship of others and our relationship with those others as well. Then the bummer. My wife died. End of story, though there are many, many chapters full of fun and play.
Patricia Kayden
??
Jay
@Subsole:
UAE kidnapped Sudanese, sent them to a Libyan Airbase near Tripoli, that was used a the focal point for Haftar’s attacks on the city, used them as cannon fodder, commanded by UAE officers, protected from the GNA by Russian Pantsir airdefences operated by Wagner Mercs, and aircraft operated by a motley assortment of mercs, including a Yank with no pilots lisence.
When Turkey got involved, they smoked everything with drones and loitering munitions, the LNA survivors retreated, the GNA took the airbase, Haftar’s continued attacks on Tripoli are now unpossible,
And the UAE plan to move US Patriot missile batteries to Lybia to protect UAE military from Turkish drones were shut down by the US.
In the aftermath, the GNA recovered an undamaged Pantsir system, which wound up going to Turkey, but shared with the US and NATO, French ATGM’s that were never exported to Libya, evidence of French military advisors being present, dead ISIL and AQNA fighters that Haftar had gotten credit for destroying 2 years earlier in the West, ( but had just enlisted for cash), and in the area, a bunch of mass graves filled with people who a “disappeared” in LNA controlled areas.
Libya is pretty fucked up, as only a few “movers and shakers” have “picked a side”, with many, playing both sides.
Subsole
@Jay: An open wound draws flies.
Edit: It sounds a bit like Sudan, or the post-Mobutu Congo War. A terrible situation roping in every nation in the region.
Jay
@Winston:
glad it worked well for you and your wife.
sorry for your loss.
During my separation/divorce, I was in a BDSM/Poly relationship for almost two years, but it ended.
Then I was a Dom with multiple partners for a couple years, then met SWMBO.
Is this the Official Balloon Juice After Dark Thread now?
Jay
@Subsole:
or Yemen.
Jay
Keep in mind that Haftar, the dictator of the LNA, was the Kaffadi General who invaded Chad with a shitload of missiles, tanks, troops and airpower only to get smoked by a handful of French Mirages and Chadian Soldiers in Hilux Pickups.
when Chad released him, the CIA added him to their roster.
Subsole
@Jay: Holy shit! I read about that.
I do wonder what the Toyota engineers think about designing the most successful combat vehicle in human history… :/
Jay
@Subsole:
https://mobile.twitter.com/loudribs/status/1365018179710443530/photo/1
Hilux, the Evolution of Revolution.
Darkrose
So? Should we not have discussed Harvey Weinstein’s actions because he preyed on famous actresses? I don’t understand why someone harassing famous women is acceptable because ordinary women also get harassed. I honestly don’t understand what your issue is here.
glc
Shorter version –
Doesn’t really care that much about the murder of journalists, and doesn’t think anyone else of importance does, either.
On the other hand, Navalny …
Jay
@Darkrose:
his point was that all harassment is bad and it’s long past time that “only” rich/powerful/popular victims get their stories covered in the media, or become a “cause du jour”.
Jay
@glc:
shorter version, dead thread troll.
Darkrose
@Brachiator:
I was in media fandom in the late ’90’s-early ’00’s when Joss Whedon was a hero in fannish circles because he was a feminist who wrote strong female characters and suppported women as creators. It’s only been recently that people have noticed how his shows treat those “strong female characters”, and how his treatment of many of the women around him has been anything but feminist. (See also: Dollhouse and Firefly.)
As for his behavior towards his wife, if her account is accurate, I feel very comfortable saying that Whedon is a horrible human being.
Matt
We know where he sleeps. We have Tomahawk missiles. I don’t really wanna hear about how we need to worry about him taking hostages.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, …
… gradually, and then suddenly.
Also too, If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.
I suspect Biden won’t do anything sudden, but I do expect that he’s going to find a way to finally get us out of there.
Cheers,
Scott.
gwangung
@Darkrose: I always think, “But for the grace of God, there go I.”
We’re all capable of being horrible human beings, because we’re raised in a racist, patriarchal science. And we need not jump too quickly on our natural reactions…
Jay
@Another Scott:
He won’t. There is no exit.
and he’s still in talks with the Beach Talibs, not the Afghan Taliban.
Jay
@Darkrose:
one can not be a shit for the money, success, in a changing world, piggybacking on others work while appearing to promote them while still being a shit.
Jay
@Matt:
as Adam and others have pointed out, ain’t that simple.
Brachiator
@Darkrose:
The artistic work that a person creates is not necessarily connected to their political beliefs. Some work that they create can actually be better than the artist. I don’t know why this could be so hard for people to understand.
I like the female characters in Buffy. For a long time I didn’t know much about Whedon, but I never assumed that he was a feminist just based on his work.
The only thing you can say is that he had a fucked up relationship with his wife. Even if you knew Whedon personally, you would not necessarily know much about him.
Darkrose
@Jay: No one is arguing otherwise though. Has anyone here or elsewhere said, “Screw poor women who are getting harrassed”? It’s entirely possible to think that it’s wrong for any women to be harrassed, regardless of wealth and level of fame.
Darkrose
People assumed he was a feminist because he said “I am a feminist!” and especially in the late ’90’s, it was rare for a creator–especially a guy–to say that, so people assumed that he meant it.
I’m sorry, but that is the statement of a fucking asshole.
Brachiator
@Darkrose:
Again, the work and the creator are not synonymous. Stan Lee and Gene Roddenberry said a lot of stuff about themselves that is contradicted by their actual behavior. Some fans still choose to believe it.
Some feminists are bad people. Political ideology is not the same thing as moral character.
People are complicated. Some people wanted to call James Cameron a feminist director. Then they pulled back. Fortunately, Cameron did not heavily push the bullshit himself.
I greatly admire much of his work and think that some of his women characters are great. Are they feminist icons? Don’t know. Do they need to be to be enjoyable?
TMC
Thank you for your insight. The average citizen and much of the media doesn’t understand the complexities of international relationships. It’s a tight rope that every president must walk.
wrog
@36:
“Everyone remembers 1979.”
There’s one big difference between Iran taking hostages and KSA taking hostages and it’s that Saudi Arabia would be a lot easier to threaten. The terrain is flat and their army is a speed bump (it’s why they were so terrified of Saddam Hussein back in 1990, and why we have all of those military consultants/advisors there in the first place). Also large Shia minority all set to rebel if the opportunity comes up (file under why they’re an oppressive police state).
We’re about the only thing propping them up. All we have to do is indicate that we’re even slightly serious about doing something about them and they’ll be shitting their pants and offering MBS’s head on a platter
Bobby Thomson
Your hostage/personal security points look like pretty good justification. I’ve never understood, though, what our interest is acting as Saudi Arabia’s proxy in its proxy war with Iran.
Edit: I know the Cold War is how we got there in the first place but genuflecting to their control over global oil prices seems like a mug’s game. There are winners and losers when commodity prices move.
glc
@Jay:
Not directed at you personally.
Other views exist; this is known.
Thread obviously not dead at that point.
glc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56255694
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/28/white-house-defends-not-sanction-saudi-crown-prince-khashoggi-killing