As John pointed out yesterday, the “concession” that Biden made to Manchin et. al. on the stimulus package is not that much (around $15 billion) and the people who will be hurt are those who were making between $80K and $100K (or couples making $160K-200K). So it’s a little trim on what is shaping up to be a pretty large and surprisingly good disaster relief package. That trim will still hurt some people, like those who were making a solid middle-class income then lost their job, because we need to hurt people for reasons, I guess.
My first question: who is the audience for this nonsense? It can’t be Fox News and Republicans, because they’ll still be able to dig up stories of undeserving (i.e., black and brown) stimulus recipients, no matter what caps we put on it. Are there some Democrats who give a shit about the $15 or so billion that will be saved from a $1.9 trillion package? Is there some quirk of West Virginia or Arizona politics that means that Manchin and Sinema will prosper because of this tiny cut? Or are those two just like a dogs that have to piss on every tree to show the world that they exist? Maybe I answered my own question.
My second question is why the Capital is not ringed with soldiers, why every member and staffer doesn’t have an armed escort, and why some kind of armored vehicles aren’t patrolling streets around the building so the House can meet today? (The Senate is in session, which makes little sense if you’re closing the House for a threat.) Is not capitulating to terrorists reserved for foreign terrorists only?
Open thread.
Nina
The House did its work, passing the stimulus and voting rights bills. The Senate has a crapton of work they need to make up thanks to Republicans stalling.
schrodingers_cat
Shorter M^2, whatever the Democrats are doing they are doing it wrong.
THE END
BruceFromOhio
Both-siderists, wherever they may reside, and the NY Times opinion page.
Most of the National Guard units from 1/6 are still there. And the House has members that are committed Q’pers that have embraced violence. Would you want to have a meeting with colleagues who are bona fide whacko gun owners? I’ll take the day off, thanks.
@schrodingers_cat: See also: Cleek’s Law.
swiftfox
I think the House should be in session. Period.
Old School
It doesn’t even save money from the bill. The size of the reconciliation bill is set at $1.9 billion, so $15 billion less in direct payments will just get reallocated to other parts of the package.
Wag
If a minor concession is all that it takes to keep the Dem coalition in line, then I say make the concession. It also buys loyalty for the upcoming voting rights bill. “Senators AZ and WV, we gave you you a concession on the COVID bill, now you owe us on voting rights.”
Baud
@Old School:
I suspect that’s part of the reason for the change. Some Senators want more money for specific projects.
Another Scott
Pelosi is giving her weekly press briefing now. Dunno if she’s going to talk about the House security, etc.
ETA – She said today is a short day because the GOP is having some sort of in-person meeting this afternoon (Democrats did their meeting virtually).
Cheers,
Scott.
gkoutnik
Given their constituents, I think that Manchin and Sinema getting on the front page for, single-handedly forcing the Congress to cut money from a really big bill will play very, very well. Any moment in the sun like that will benefit their ratings, regardless of whether it was fiscally meaningful at all. They are playing to people who have no idea of how the numbers work.
Searcher
@Another Scott: is “in person meeting” code for “leading another violent mob I’m an act of sedition”?
Cheryl Rofer
I’m okay with the House not meeting. It’s one day. They finished a lot of work last night.
The message this sends to the Three Percenters and Oath Keepers is “We’re ready for you.” Which will deter any action from them. And the naysayers will take this absence of action to mean that the House overreacted.
Year 2000. What we might have done with Covid. Rinse and repear.
m.glafmer
Regarding Q1
Democrats are sending fewer people relief checks for no good reason. (slate.com)
Cervantes
I think Manchin just wants to do something so he can tell WV voters he isn’t a tool of Chuck and Nancy. It’s essentially symbolic.
As for DC security, I’m pretty sure it’s good enough, that nobody with the means to do harm can get anywhere near the Capitol complex. I’m not worried about that. So I agree with people who think that the House not being in session is just giving the wingnuts a cheap win.
Jeffro
Could we just pass the damned Covid bill so that we can get moving on HR 1?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Manchin: Ego and that nagging fear so common in so many Americans that somewhere, some Undeserving will get a couple of hundred dollars
Sinema: I can’t quite get a handle on. Maybe she does a lot of local press, but as a political junkie, including twitter, I never see her face. The fact that she’s gone from Greenie to Blue Dog suggests to me she may be a bit squirrelly.
natem
@gkoutnik:
and since we’re better off with AZ and WV sending Sinema and Manchin to the Senate rather than some Q-Nut or Paulite douchebags I’d say on balance that’s a win-win
Baud
@m.glafmer:
I hadn’t heard about that. Thanks.
PJ
@natem: WV isn’t moving leftward any time soon, but AZ is. Sinema (how many times can autocorrect creatively change her name) seems mostly out to protect her political career, but if she doesn’t get with what is a very mainstream Democratic program to restore this country economically and morally, she should be primaried with someone who is on board.
Baud
@gkoutnik:
That may be. I think there are people in the center who like seeing their representatives stand up to those liberal Democrats just like there are people on the left who like seeing their representatives stand up to those Establishment Democrats. I couldn’t tell you how many people like that exist, however.
Geminid
@natem: Manchin and Sinema messing with this legislation is problematic, and very frustrating for many. On the other hand, this legislation would not even be considered if the two had not hung with the rest of their Caucus to get Schumer elected Majority Leader, capabable of bringing such legislation to the Senate floor. They are not my state’s Senators, and I take what we get from them and try not to get too strung out over their failings. But they obviously are driving a lot of folks crazy, and will continue to unless and until we pick up five or six winnable Senate seats in 2022, as well as retain those of Warnock, Kelly, Hassan, and Cortez-Masto. Even then, we’ll need a successful 2024 cycle to make lasting progress in some areas. This may be tough to swallow for some, but I think it’s a fact.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@PJ: I don’t think Sinema is stupid– though I am open to argument– and I’m sure she has some kind of numbers/polling/on-the-ground evidence she’s responding to, but it seems to me she would get great press for promoting filibuster reform– “We need to preserve the tradition of the Senate as the cooling saucer of the legislative branch, but we must also ensure that the minority is not allowed to obstruct the will of the American people…”
Gravenstone
To be honest, the Senate would be the higher priority target for the insurrectionists right now. If they somehow succeeded in killing even a single Democratic Senator, who was not then replaced with the same party, they would stop the Senate from doing a single thing for Biden and his administration going forward. An overwhelming victory from their point of view.
chopper
there is no audience for it. it’s two dumb senators preening. that’s it.
Baud
@Gravenstone:
True. But the Dems aren’t going to delay COVID relief because of terrorists. The House’s work isn’t going to affected by this recess.
Served
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It is much easier to be the paragon of the filibuster and moderation than to talk about actual policy or run on defending tough votes.
In its own way, it’s kind of a variation of the McCain “maverick” gig.
It probably works in Arizona, but I will never understand the mindset of people who run for an office and don’t seem to actually care about anything or getting anything done.
Doc Sardonic
@gkoutnik: Manchin maybe…Sinema is further guaranteeing a primary challenge I think, and given that she barely beat Martha McSally the first time there is no sure thing that she will survive a primary by continuing to piss off the Democrats. Biden knows how to play fuck you politics and I am thinking she and Manchin both are soon going to get an object lesson in it.
janesays
The people who had a solid middle class income that disqualifies them based on their 2019 earnings but lost their jobs in 2020 and would qualify based on last year’s income will get the stimulus, they just won’t get it right away with those who met the thresholds based on 2019 income. I presume within a month or two of filing their 2020 returns (where they can claim it as a refundable credit) they’ll get the money.
Another Scott
@Doc Sardonic: Is Harris scheduled to be on WV TV again soon??
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Served:
Isn’t that how most people treat their jobs?
janesays
@gkoutnik: I don’t think very many of Joe Manchin’s constituents are going to be impacted by this, because West Virginia is a low income, low cost of living state.
The few people who make between $160-200K in household income in West Virginia are solidly in the upper middle class and doing much, much better than most of their fellow West Virginians. Single people without kids who make $80K per year in that state are mostly getting by just fine as well.
It is a luxury problem to make more money than 80-90% of the country and having to “suffer” the pain of not getting a check for $1,100 or so. I’m sure there are over a hundred million Americans who would absolutely love to experience that kind of suffering.
Ken
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think Sinema just wants to avoid getting screamed at by Princess Meghan, Monday to Friday at 10AM EST, 8AM MST.
p.a.
I think the “I’m in-dur dur-pendant” argument holds water for Manchinema given their electorates. Would love to see the Dem Senate caucus do some virtual ball-kicking of Joe, but I’m afraid if he is held too much to account he’ll switch parties. Seems the type.
dmsilev
@Ken: Does anyone really care what Meghan McCain thinks? Aside from Meghan McCain, that is.
Monala
I posted this last night after the thread was pretty much dead:
Two things to add to this discussion:
1. For people whose income increased due to early distributions from a retirement plan, they have the option to claim the distribution over three years (in other words, they can choose to only claim 1/3 of it this year), and the usual early distribution penalties are waived. This may enable them to remain under the stimulus limits.
2. Although some people will lose out on stimulus, others who were left out of the earlier stimulus payments are getting it this time around. This includes dependents ages 17 and up, who got nothing in the earlier payments. So if your family included a high school senior, a college student, and grandma, you were screwed before. Well, no longer under this bill.
The second group who were screwed before but no longer, are the US citizen spouses and children of undocumented immigrants. They got nothing in the earlier stimulus packages, but now will receive their payments under this bill.
I guarantee you that many families with older dependents and those who are spouses/children of someone undocumented make a hell of a lot less than the upper income thresholds. They were completely iced out before and didn’t even get the partial payments of some higher income folks.
Betty Cracker
@Served:
Well put — that’s it, I think. I sure hope someone figures out a way to get our filibuster-philes on board to pass the voting reform package that Republicans oppose unanimously. Because if SR 1 doesn’t pass, we are screwed — “not a joke,” as Biden might say.
Give the filibuster fiends a fig leaf by designating a democracy-saving bill carveout like Harry Reid did for nominees and the Senatortoise from KY did for the judiciary, whatever it takes.
Kent
I expect that 90% of them are also white Republicans. Your average owners of a car dealership or chain of franchise restaurants.
Kent
Exactly. Designate civil rights bills as filibuster proof, for example, but allow ordinary spending bills like infrastructure spending to still require 60 votes. They could come up with some sort of new Manchin/Sinema rule to that effect. Allow people to filibuster spending but not civil rights or some such.
It is all made-up bullshit anyway.
Doc Sardonic
@Another Scott: Dunno, but I think the object lesson may come in one of Manchin’s pet energy projects getting cut, not sure about Sinema because she seems to not care about anything but her title.
cain
BTW I hope they aren’t determing income and what not through last year’s taxes or using taxes at all..
gwangung
@m.glafmer: This doesn’t sound like “no good reason” to me; it’s to make sure it fits under reconciliation, which is a very good reason.
Or am I missing something?
James E Powell
@Betty Cracker:
I get the attractiveness of maverick stunts in purple states. But there will be plenty of opportunities in the next two years to go maverick. This was a horrible time to do that.
First, the “they gave us less than Trump” will now be firmly planted in the discourse. And please, don’t bother with facts. Recall “Obama cut Medicare!” that led the 2010 debacle.
Second, the most important thing right now is that Biden is not only successful, but that he is seen to be successful. Bullshit like this or like Tanden isn’t significant in itself. But consecutive days of “Biden fails!” stories – cable shows are eager for these – reduce the power of every Democrat to get what he or she wants.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
1) if she’s flattered by being called a Neanderthal, why should Joe Biden rethink what he’s saying?
2) since Neanderthals are not, to my admittedly limited knowledge, in the Bible, is she not taking a significant risk with the Creation Museum membership? Will she be forced to pose for a picture on a large saddled plastic dinosaur as damage control?
Brachiator
@Jeffro:
It very likely will pass. They goal has always been to get the bill passed before the end of March.
Debate and discussion is not delaying anything. But you could say that the Senate’s insisting on tinkering with a good bill caused some unnecessary delay.
And seven million families will receive a smaller stimulus or nothing at all. Seven million voters.
ETA. Again I want to note that a very good thing was that the threshold for receiving the maximum stimulus was not lowered, as some Democrats and all Republicans wanted. Even some stupid economists argued for a lower threshold. But the idea was not just to “help” the neediest taxpayers, but to inject money into a stalled economy. I hope that someone is taking notes for the next pandemic.
janesays
@James E Powell: You’re right, it’s politically tone-deaf posturing that serves no valuable purpose other letting Manchin flex to show West Virginians that he won’t be controlled by those radical commies.
But given that Manchin’s vote is irrefutably necessary to pass anything, what choice do we really have?
Elections have consequences. This is the consequence of Cal Cunningham not being able to keep it in his pants, Mainers deciding they want 6 more years of brow-furrowing, and Iowans wanting to stick with the pig-castrater for another round.
We have 50 votes. As long as we only have 50 votes, every single one of those people will have the power to tank any bill they want, and one of those people is Joe Manchin.
Brachiator
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Wow. A Republican tacitly admitting that she believes in evolution.
Not too sure, though, about this high praise for Neanderthal family values.
Morzer
@Doc Sardonic: I am not so sure that Biden wants to play that game, especially in the cause of further weakening the very institutions to which he has been so devoted throughout a long political career. My hope in all of this, and it is not a particularly strong hope, is that Biden can trade largely cosmetic cuts on spending for an agreement to a “tweak” to the filibuster that gets HR 1 through the Senate. I have some real doubts that Manchin and Sinema are achieving very much at all with the posturing in which they habitually engage and would prefer them to sell Democratic policy better, rather than telling the world how they stopped the Democrats from ruining the country. Still, you go to war with the Senators you have, not the Senators you want to have. For now.
Morzer
@Brachiator: Blackburn seems not to have noticed that Neanderthals are… you know… extinct.
Brachiator
@cain:
They will be using taxpayers’ adjusted gross income, AGI. We don’t know the details yet. They might use 2019 AGI or let taxpayers use 2020 AGI if they have already filed their tax returns.
They are basing the payments on who is in a taxpayers’ household. Taxpayer, spouse, dependents.
The original idea was to send out checks as quickly as possible by late March. Obviously, here you would not be waiting for everyone to file their taxes.
Brachiator
@Morzer:
A future to be wished for the Republican Party.
Monala
@James E Powell: but some people are getting more. People with dependents 17 and up got nothing for those dependents before, and now they will.
James E Powell
@Monala:
There you go with those facts again.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I agree with Blackburn for once. Biden’s comment was an insult to Neanderthals.
Brachiator
@Monala:
Good points. Mixed families, where one taxpayer has a social and the other spouse does not (but has an ITIN) retroactively qualify for the second stimulus and can claim it for 2020. And allowing payments for more dependents is a big deal.
However, from reviewing returns I see a number of people being frozen out even if they spread an early distribution over three years.
Yep. The bill is overall better in some ways than the first two stimulus bills. I hope the Senate does not tinker with it too much.
Lower income families, especially those who get the child tax credit, might see a nice income boost.
Brachiator
@Baud:
No Neanderthals have complained.
cain
@Brachiator:
I think my problem is that what you filed in 2021 has no bearing for the past year because a lot has happened economy wise. If you filed taxes and you were making 150k, that doesn’t mean you’ve made 150k the past year.
Baud
@cain:
Someone here said last night that you can qualify based on 2019, 2020, or 2021 income. I haven’t verified that.
J R in WV
@Jeffro:
I’m pretty sure the House has passed both of these bills, and the Senate is currently tied up hand and foot and sinking into a giant morass of arcane rules intended to keep the Senate from accomplishing anything whatsoever, as the white supremacists intended from the moment the Constitution was voted into effect.
J R in WV
@Baud:
And taking a day off at the recommendation of the security wonks isn’t actually a recess under the rules of the House, so far as I understand these things.
Doc Sardonic
@Morzer: Don’t see how cutting a pet project of a Senator that is screwing with your agenda is “further weakening the very institutions to which he has been so devoted throughout a long political career”. I see it as using an asshole to give a heads up about what can happen if you screw around to the rest of the caucus. Sometimes a punch in the mouth is necessary literally and metaphorically.
Hoodie
@Brachiator: After Bidens’ remarks yesterday I did a bit of reading on theories as to why the Neanderthals failed to thrive. They included genetic problems due to small, dispersed populations and hunting techniques that caused many of them to suffer serious injuries and rather violent deaths. Sounds pretty Republican to me.
JWC
@Wag: Agree. Im one of those people who will be affected by the minor change, and there is no way in hell I need that money or will spend it if I get it. (I was already getting prorated $$$) Retired senior, my friends and I talked about how silly it was to send us money the first time. Would much prefer money goes to my children and adult grandchildren, and seniors who need it.
Nelle
@swiftfox: The problem with the House meeting is that the Q terrorists are members of that particular body.
J R in WV
@Doc Sardonic:
Oh, surely, you can imagine she cares about the salary and benefits as well.
Kent
Neanderthals also went extinct! Wiped out by stone-age humans.
What is Blackburn trying to say anyway? That Neanderthal isn’t an insult and that the GOP should own the label?
OK then….
Brachiator
@cain:
Tax returns for 2020 include a Recovery Rebate Worksheet. This lets people whose 2020 incomes are lower than 2019 amounts get more stimulus than originally received. It also lets them get a payment for children born in 2020, who were not around when the second stimulus was paid.
I presume that something similar will be in effect next year.
Also, there is a lookback rule that allows taxpayers to use 2019 earned income if that will give them a larger Earned Income Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit if 2020 income is significantly lower. I wish this adjustment did not look at 2020 unemployment compensation at all, but this gets technical.
There is a similar 2019 lookback rule for a credit available to some self-employed people affected by Covid.
And of course there is the rule that lets some people spread an early distribution over three years, and eliminates the early distribution penalty, for pension distributions related to Covid.
There have been a number of thoughtful revisions to 2020 tax rules to try to help people affected by the pandemic. Congress actually did a pretty good job overall.
Some people get hung up over a single issue like the minimum wage without looking at other enacted items which also have a big impact on a lot of people. I suspect that part of this is because there are some supposed progressives who make a big noise about caring for the poor without actually understanding the issues important to lower income people.
Brachiator
@Hoodie:
@Kent:
No one knows exactly why Neanderthals, or any other hominids, went extinct.
We DO know that Neanderthals mated with humans in some places. Same is true probably with respect to Denisovans as well.
m.glafmer
@gwangung: They have other options, but chose this.
source
janesays
@Baud: I’m the one who said that, and I’m basing it on the Spring 2020 stimulus payment. I haven’t seen the actual legislation for the new disbursement, so perhaps I am mistaken about how this new stimulus payment will work, but I know that last year’s stimulus was technically considered an advanced tax credit for 2020.
Since nobody’s taxes for 2020 had been filed at the time the stimulus bill was passed last year, payments were disbursed based on the most recent available tax returns filed, which for most people was 2018, but for some who filed early in the year was 2019. Ultimately, what you made in 2020 was the deciding factor – except that everybody who got a check based on 2018 or 2019 income but didn’t qualify in 2020 would not be penalized for receiving the advance payment. They just wouldn’t get a credit for 2020, which practically speaking, meant nothing. They already got their check, they get to keep it, the end. But the people who benefitted on the back end are the ones who made too much in 2018 and 2019 to qualify, but whose 2020 incomes brought them under the threshold. They are just right now able to claim the refundable credit when they file their 2020 returns, and they will receive whatever amount they would have gotten had they met the thresholds in either 2018 or 2019.
So… I am assuming that everything will probably work the same this year as it did last year. We’ll all be elegible for a 2021 credit based on 2019 or 2020 income, but if we made too much in those years and wind up qualifying this year, we’ll still get the credit, but we just won’t see the money until next year. And if we make too much this year to qualify for 2021 but got a payment based on either 2019 or 2020, we won’t have to pay anything back.
Does that all make sense?
The Pale Scot
Anybody hear anything about this?
Video of Joe Biden’s Live Feed Cut Off After Asking for Questions Viewed One Million Times
MY resident wing nut is off the rails
Doc Sardonic
@J R in WV: Sorry for not being specific. Most people associate a title with the accoutrements that are assumed toaccompany it, whether the associated ones are real or not.
Baud
@The Pale Scot:
Tapper was pushing that bullshit the other day. It’s the latest Village chew toy.
Steve in the ATL
@Baud:
Absolutely not—I live for union busting!
The Pale Scot
@Baud:
This isn’t “Biden’s not talking to us, WAhhhh….
But further searching I can’t find anything pointing to Biden speaking today except for that one minute clip. This is looking like a blatant con job
Another Scott
@Morzer: Hey!! Some of us have Neanderthal genes and are still very much alive, thank you very much!
Cheers,
Scott.
The Pale Scot
@The Pale Scot:
It was a virtual meeting with Congress, he tells Pelosi he’ll take ?? if that’s what she wants him to do
Morzer
@Another Scott:
But are they skinny genes or loose genes?
Juju
@dmsilev: Megan McCain has as much substance and brain wattage as a vapor.
Juju
@Betty Cracker: It would not be good optics for a Jim Crow era initiated senate rule to be used to prevent voting rights legislation from passing, in other word, doing exactly what it was designed to do. Sinema and Manchin need to get a clue in that regard. I certainly hope they do. In any case, that is some leverage that can be used against them. I don’t know if it will help, though. I’m always optimistic, but often burned.
Skepticat
That rational world is long gone. The Rethuglicans never give; they only take. No matter what you give them, they never bother even to acknowledge it—indeed may deny they received anything and will play victim—but instead bitch because it wasn’t enough.
WaterGirl
@Skepticat: But these are the two Democratic senators.
Matt McIrvin
Means-testing of benefits is dumb but the lack of it (or even the lack of an excessive amount of it) is really easy to demagogue (“why are my tax dollars going to that person?”), so it’s hard to avoid.
You could always argue “pay everyone and income-tax it back”, but then people will whine that you taxed their federal benefits and that’s mean and stupid.
Kayla Rudbek
The Neanderthals at least seem to have cared for the sick, unlike modern Republicans: See here
@Kent:
lowtechcyclist
I thought this part was obvious: Fox etc. will gloat about every person who got a check from Trump but didn’t get one from Biden. They’ll do their best to make it seem like Trump helped a shit-ton of people that Biden told to go fuck themselves (their spin).
That’s why Cole’s gripe about that Slate headline was so meaningless. The number of people who see that headline, directly or indirectly, will be dwarfed by the number of people who see on Fox News that Trump helped way more (again, their spin) people than Biden did. (And of course Biden helped all the wrong people, all Those People, but that’s a different thing.)
Skepticat
@WaterGirl: Of course you’re right, and I wasn’t paying attention (blush). However, the way they’ve been acting makes me think they’ve got too far to the dark side to be rational. We can hope, though.